Market Commentary


The Spike in Muni Yields – an Opportunity

Author: John Mousseau, Post Date: November 16, 2010

The tax-free bond market has been hit with a spike in long-maturity yields, bringing yields to their highest level of the year.  Long-maturity tax-free yields have risen 40-50 basis points and many longer high-quality bonds are now yielding more than 5%.  And this has all happened in less than two weeks.  How did it happen? […]

The Stock Market – FAQ

Author: David Kotok, Post Date: November 14, 2010

Some Frequently Asked Q&A about the US stock market. Do you think that the bull market is over? NO! This stock market rally started in March of 2009. It began from a level that represented massive fear and raw panic in the aftermath of the Lehman Failure. It was preceded by a severe traditional bear […]

Oil Slickonomics-Part 13-Idle Iron

Author: David Kotok, Post Date: November 8, 2010

In our recent comment entitled “Oil Slickonomics – Part 12” we discussed how the federal government is implementing a policy that functions as a de facto moratorium, even though the Obama administration has formally lifted the de jure oil drilling moratorium. We appreciate the readers who responded, and we particularly thank Loren Scott for providing […]

Oil Slickonomics-Part 12-An Update

Author: David Kotok, Post Date: November 4, 2010

We will start this note with two links. The first is to the October 2010 edition of the National Geographic. It is devoted to the Gulf oil spill, with a comprehensive report that includes excellent maps and photos. Those who lean green will find support in this assemblage of data. Anti-BP forces will like it […]

Not More QE?

Author: Bob Eisenbeis, Post Date: October 29, 2010

The topic of quantitative easing has been beaten to death.  Speculation has raged about how much large the Fed’s purchases will be.  What the duration of those purchases will be.  What the impact on yields will be. Will they be 3 basis points or 30 basis points?  Pseudo-econometric analysis has been done attempting to justify […]

GSE Note Sale: America’s Greatness

Author: David Kotok, Post Date: October 28, 2010

“This is some country,” said Comedian Yakov Smirnoff. Only in America! Fannie Mae issues a 3-year note yielding 0.76 percent.  Eight billion is the size and the entire issue is subscribed within minutes. The new issue price was 20 basis points above the 3-year Treasury, which yielded 0.56 percent at the time of the sale. […]

The G-20 Makes Progress but Currency Volatility Continues

Author: Bill Witherell, Post Date: October 27, 2010

The G-20, now the primary forum for managing the global economy, met last weekend in Korea. The meeting was at the level of finance ministers and central bank governors and will be followed in three weeks by a G-20 meeting of heads of state (a “Summit”) on November 11-12. Market expectations for significant results from […]

QE2: what’s an investor to do?

Author: David Kotok, Post Date: October 26, 2010

Inflation, deflation? Higher interest rates, lower rates? QE2? What to do? Option 1: Very short-term cash equivalents earn 10 basis points in a money market fund. Take no risk, get no return. Option 2: 5-year zero-coupon TIPS, zero real rate. Consumer Price Index (CPI) goes up, you get paid the inflation rate. No inflation, you […]

QE2: Yabba Dabba Dooooo

Author: David Kotok, Post Date: October 24, 2010

The countdown to QE2 continues… For weeks, various members of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) have used the media to discuss their views of quantitative easing. In the first week of November and coincident with the outcome of the elections, they will emerge from a Fed meeting and we may hear a decision. Some […]

The Meeting Before the Meeting

Author: Bob Eisenbeis, Post Date: October 18, 2010

Chairman Bernanke announced in his speech last Friday that the FOMC will commence additional quantitative easing after its next meeting. At least, this is how both domestic and international markets have interpreted his remarks. Treasury prices rose and the exchange rate declined following the speech. This is the culmination of the first public FOMC policy […]

cumber map
Cumberland Advisors® is registered with the SEC under the Investment Advisers Act of 1940. All information contained herein is for informational purposes only and does not constitute a solicitation or offer to sell securities or investment advisory services. Such an offer can only be made in the states where Cumberland Advisors is either registered or is a Notice Filer or where an exemption from such registration or filing is available. New accounts will not be accepted unless and until all local regulations have been satisfied. This presentation does not purport to be a complete description of our performance or investment services. Please feel free to forward our commentaries (with proper attribution) to others who may be interested. It is not our intention to state or imply in any manner that past results and profitability is an indication of future performance. All material presented is compiled from sources believed to be reliable. However, accuracy cannot be guaranteed.