Market Commentary


Front Running the Fed

Author: David Kotok, Post Date: September 1, 2010

“… the public is no longer investing in stocks, but rather in bonds.  So far this year through July, bond mutual funds have attracted $224.4bn in net inflows including reinvested dividends. Equity funds have attracted only $17.2bn ytd, with $32.2bn going into International funds while $15.0bn flowed out of Domestic funds.” — Ed Yardeni, September […]

Bernanke’s Jackson Hole Message

Author: Bob Eisenbeis, Post Date: August 31, 2010

Markets eagerly awaited Chairman Bernanke’s remarks at the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City’s annual Jackson Hole conference last week, in hopes that he might provide more clarity on Fed policy. However, the media struggled to find anything newsworthy in the speech. The best the Wall Street Journal could do, for example, was to note […]

The Emperor, the Gladiator & the Lion

Author: David Kotok, Post Date: August 30, 2010

The last surviving gladiator stood alone in the Coliseum as the crowd shouted approval of his victories. The emperor called for a lion. In bounded a fierce beast that loped to the gladiator. As it was about to pounce on him, the gladiator whispered in the lion’s ear. The beast promptly sat down. The crowd […]

Mid-August Bullets

Author: David Kotok, Post Date: August 22, 2010

Middle East geopolitics raise the fear quotient. The Obama administration’s response to Middle East tension remains a mixed message. Israel faces another “flotilla” plus the Iranian nuke threat. For Prime Minister Netanyahu, this is a two-front geopolitical war that can threaten the survival of his country. For the United States, this piles on top of […]

The Uncertain FOMC

Author: Bob Eisenbeis, Post Date: August 17, 2010

The stock market’s decline and the resurgence in bond prices since the FOMC’s last meeting and the announcement that the FOMC would reinvest proceeds from maturing mortgage-backed securities by expanding its Treasury portfolio should have surprised no one. What we are seeing is the difference between certainty and uncertainty. By deciding to maintain its portfolio […]

Oil Slickonomics – Part 11, Report from Baton Rouge

Author: David Kotok, Post Date: August 16, 2010

We are back from a fascinating and exhilarating experience with the GIC ( One of our delegate colleagues was John Mauldin, who has already published commentary on the trip. He has given us permission to share it with our readers. Excerpts from his report are below. We believe John has accurately described the meeting and […]


Author: Peter Demirali, Post Date: August 14, 2010

The Build America Bond (BABs) program continues to garner increased interest on the part of institutional and international investors. Foreign investors are playing a larger role as buyers of this asset class. Some have estimated their participation at anywhere from 25-40% of an issue, especially for large, index-qualified debt. Given the problems and concerns of […]

The Oil Spill and the Municipal Bond Market

Author: John Mousseau, Post Date: August 12, 2010

It has been over three months since the beginning of the oil spill in the Gulf of Mexico. Since then it has cost billions of dollars in terms of lost jobs, tourism, and the battering that local fishing industries have had to endure. At Cumberland Advisors, we have written about the impact in the Gulf […]

Report From Leen’s Lodge

Author: David Kotok, Post Date: August 9, 2010

Forty-one men and women gathered at Leen’s Lodge this year. The largest gathering in the annual event’s history attracted invitees from as far away as Buenos Aires, Vancouver, Dallas, Newport Beach, Helsinki, and the Persian Gulf. As a group, our firms collectively supervise several trillion in assets, employ thousands in the financial services industry around […]

Drama at the Fed Meeting?

Author: David Kotok, Post Date: August 6, 2010

The forthcoming Fed meeting (August 10) is likely to feature an internal debate.  We MAY see some evidence of it in the statement released after the meeting’s conclusion.  We will not know the intricate details for years. The debate is on four levels.  The first is, do we do something because deflation risk is rising […]

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