Market Commentary


The Fed Exit and the Role of BLOBS – Part 1

Author: David Kotok and Bob Eisenbeis, Post Date: October 2, 2009

This commentary is jointly written by Bob Eisenbeis and David Kotok; their bios may be found at Note to Readers: This is the first of a two-part commentary motivated by speeches and editorials from Federal Reserve officials about possible exit strategies from its current quantitative easing policies. We comment on some problems that the […]

The Pittsburgh G-20 – Does It Matter?

Author: Bill Witherell, Post Date: September 29, 2009

The second G-20 Summit meeting was held in Pittsburgh last week. There were no market-moving surprises in the outcome. The decisions taken were largely signaled by the preparatory meeting of finance ministers and central bank governors on September 4 and 5 in London.  While the press accounts suggest the results were modest, perhaps because of […]

Iran, Nukes, War & Markets

Author: David Kotok, Post Date: September 26, 2009

Iran.   Remember the old story about the kid and cookie jar?  “If you do that one more time, I will punish you,” says the mom.  This latest two-months so-called “line in the sand” is not the first, nor the second, nor the third time.  The only thing different now is that the Brits (Brown), the […]

Pay or No Pay?

Author: Bob Eisenbeis, Post Date: September 24, 2009

In a move that has become the typical Washington modus operandi, but one that has traditionally been un-Fed-like, word was leaked to the Wall Street Journal about the Federal Reserve’s intention to regulate banker pay.   This parallels the growing international focus on limiting executive compensation, because of its presumed role in inducing more risk taking […]

Tires, Chickens, and Trade – One Week Later

Author: Bill Witherell, Post Date: September 23, 2009

In the week following President Obama’s imposition of tariffs on Chinese tires, some commentators expressed confidence that the resulting trade dispute would be well-contained by the two countries and argued that the President had to throw some “red meat” to his trade union supporters.  Other, including this writer, expressed concerns that this move could be […]

The Drunk and The Liquor Store

Author: David Kotok, Post Date: September 21, 2009

A few thousand miles of flying gives one a chance to catch up on some research reports. In this case the stack was about the debt-to-GDP ratio and what it means. It is clear that the United States is on a borrowing binge. And also clear that the Nancy Pelosi-led US Congress has no will […]

Did Policy Economists Get It That Wrong?

Author: Bob Eisenbeis, Post Date:

It has become fashionable for commentators to bash economists for having missed the financial crisis of 2007-2009.  Nobel Prize winner Robert Lucas provided a recent rebuttal to critics in a guest article in The Economist of August 6, 2009.  Unfortunately, it was a rather unconvincing effort.  More recently, Nobel laureate Paul Krugman, in his NY […]

Kicking Tires, Playing Chicken: a Misstep on Trade

Author: Bill Witherell, Post Date: September 15, 2009

Last Friday, September 11, President Barack Obama signed an order to impose a duty of 35% on Chinese tire imports, on top of the existing 4% tariff. This was the first major trade action of the new administration, following a campaign marked by strong statements on trade that generated concerns about protectionism and assurances that […]

Reflection on 9/11

Author: David Kotok, Post Date: September 12, 2009

It has been two pensive days. Somehow the words won’t come. Difficult for me since I write 100 times a year. I sit staring at the keyboard. No words. Everyone is/was so busy with 9/11. Public moments of silence, ceremonies, TV filled with remembrances, talk shows, websites, commentaries, footage of planes and fires and people. […]

More on Gold and the CUMB-E Index of Federal Reserve Policy Flexibility

Author: Bob Eisenbeis, Post Date: September 8, 2009

Notice to Readers: Cumberland will be discontinuing publication of one of the two CUMB-E indices of Federal Reserve Policy Flexibility. Specifically, we will no longer maintain the CUMB-E (Gold) Index. What follows is a detailed explanation for this decision. On August 24th, we introduced the CUMB-E Index of Federal Reserve Policy Flexibility ( The purpose […]

cumber map
Cumberland AdvisorsĀ® is registered with the SEC under the Investment Advisers Act of 1940. All information contained herein is for informational purposes only and does not constitute a solicitation or offer to sell securities or investment advisory services. Such an offer can only be made in the states where Cumberland Advisors is either registered or is a Notice Filer or where an exemption from such registration or filing is available. New accounts will not be accepted unless and until all local regulations have been satisfied. This presentation does not purport to be a complete description of our performance or investment services. Please feel free to forward our commentaries (with proper attribution) to others who may be interested. It is not our intention to state or imply in any manner that past results and profitability is an indication of future performance. All material presented is compiled from sources believed to be reliable. However, accuracy cannot be guaranteed.