Market Commentary

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Hanoi, Singapore, Shanghai, Hong Kong and GIC

Author: David Kotok, Post Date: September 3, 2009

Hanoi, Singapore, Shanghai and Hong Kong are the four city stops on a pair of GIC programs coming up in the next few months.  Longtime readers know that Cumberland Advisors is a proud sponsor of the Global Interdependence Center and its initiatives to enhance global dialogue about important issues.   We will have the privilege of […]

Japan Votes for a Change

Author: Bill Witherell, Post Date: August 31, 2009

On Sunday the Japanese electorate gave the center-left Democratic party (DJP) a landslide victory, ejecting the conservative Liberal Democrats (LPD). The latter has been the ruling party for more than half a century, except for an 11-month period in 1993-4. Japanese voters, suffering an economy that has been deflating for most of the past 10 […]

Sugar High or Acid Trip?

Author: David Kotok, Post Date:

Years ago Charles Goodhart minted an eponymous law that is applicable today in financial markets. Last week, Pimco’s Mohammed El-Erian coined the metaphor “sugar high.” He was talking about the converse of Goodhart’s Law. We think he wasn’t harsh enough; hence, we use the metaphor “LSD.” The 99th edition of Pears Cyclopaedia (1990-1, pp. G27, […]

Weekend Reading About the VA (Veterans Administration)

Author: David Kotok, Post Date: August 28, 2009

Dear readers: This is a little longer than usual. It contains excerpts from the responses to our suggestion that the Veterans Administration be examined as a part of the ongoing debate about a federal healthcare system. We argued that the US already has one and that the Congress should look at it. Responses are below. […]

The End of Bank Secrecy?

Author: Bill Witherell, Post Date: August 26, 2009

This past week the Swiss Government agreed to reveal to the US Internal Revenue Service the names of 4450 Americans holding offshore accounts at UBS. In the previous week Liechtenstein agreed to a tax-information sharing treaty with the UK. This agreement is expected to serve as a model for treaties with other countries.  Also, the […]

Bernanke!

Author: David Kotok, Post Date: August 24, 2009

NMarkets will like the removal of uncertainty now that President Obama has committed to Fed Chairman Bernanke’s reappointment. Confirmation by the US Senate is expected without much difficulty. History shows that uncertainty is the enemy of markets. Much speculation about Bernanke and a possible Summers succession has swirled in market analysis circles. That is over. […]

Oil. The Price Forecasts Vary. Why?

Author: David Kotok, Post Date: August 23, 2009

Oil flirts with $75 dollars a barrel.  Forecasts range from a low in the $40s to $85-90 before the end of the year.  Inventories on or off the water, futures and ETF-driven trading forces derived from dollar strength or weakness, China’s and other emerging market countries’ demand, mature countries’ economic recoveries, fuel substitutions when natural […]

September! Also, Closing the Lehman Gap

Author: David Kotok, Post Date:

From the Wall Street Journal of August 11: “For investors, the period between Labor Day and Halloween is proving an annual fright show. And no one knows why. It was, of course, in September last year that Lehman collapsed and everything fell apart. But then it was also September-October 2002 that the last bear market […]

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