We will start with two quotes. “It is indispensable to the proper functioning of, and the maintenance of public confidence in, the Federal Reserve Bank of New York ("Bank") and the Federal Reserve System ("System") that every employee perform his or her duties with honesty, integrity and impartiality, and without improper preferential treatment of any […]
“Oh, what a tangled web we weave when first we practice to deceive.” Sir Walter Scott More revelations about Geithner. The US Senate postpones his hearing. President-elect Obama still defends him. The stock market sinks. Are these things connected? Certainly the first three items are interrelated. Things for Geithner are getting much worse now that […]
What were formerly viewed as wild currency fluctuations are becoming more accepted in this post Lehman failure period of the global financial crisis. Lately the strength has been in the yen. Many ask why. We know that the economic situation in Japan is weak and the outlook is poor. We know that the Japanese exporters […]
As investors position their equity portfolios for 2009, attention is turning again to the so-called four BRIC economies (Brazil, Russia, India, and China). These four markets, the largest of the emerging markets, were strong out-performers in the heady investment environment of 2005-2007 and dropped sharply in the following global market decline. The MSCI BRIC Index, […]
Paris was cold. Reading reports of a deep freeze in Europe is one thing. Walking on the Rue de Rivoli with hat, scarf, gloves, and three layers and having to avoid ice is something else. Even the highest-end jewelry sellers’ plaza in the world, the Place Vendome, could not keep its sidewalks clean and safe […]
The previous commentary “Looking Ahead” focused on the risks to the outlook for 2009. However, we are now officially in a recession, with some trumpeting it as the worst economy since the Great Depression, and policy makers have responded with extraordinary measures. Therefore, it seems appropriate to take a hard look at exactly where we […]
The Wall Street Journal editorial on Jan. 2, 2009 commented on the looming consequences of the injection of government money into the tottering auto giant GM. GM announced that it would employ part of the TARP money it received to provide 0.0% financing in order to spur sales of its sport utility vehicles (the ones […]
There are signs that the 2008 year-end stock market rally may continue into 2009. Internal market dynamics have changed since the November 20 low. In order to grasp these new dynamics it is important to study three key dates and the transitions in between them. The first date is October 10, when the US stock […]
Economic forecasting is at best an imperfect art, whether using econometric models, informed judgment, or a combination of both. There are almost as many different forecasts out there as there are economists. Witness the wide dispersion of views in any of the collection of surveys conducted by the National Association of Business Economics, the Wall […]
"This is a major disaster for a lot of people. You work all your life, you finally manage to save up something, and somebody who’s entrusted with it, it turns out suddenly he’s a crook. Lots of people are getting fully or partially wiped out." Lawrence Velvel, 69, Dean of the Massachusetts School of Law […]
