If you look at the most recent reports of the Federal Reserve, you will see that loans and investments in the US banking system are contracting. Northern Trust’s Paul Kasriel notes that this is the “sharpest 13-week contraction” in the history of this data series. The Fed’s measure started in 1973. Contracting credit is an […]
The Finance Ministers and Central Bank Governors of the Group of Seven industrialized countries met Friday, April 11, in Washington D.C. as is the established practice before the annual meetings of the IMF. Very often the public statements released at the conclusion of such G-7 meetings are highly predictable, containing support for established policies, papering […]
2007 was the fifth consecutive year that emerging market stocks registered a double–digit advance. They significantly outperformed US and other advanced markets. The broad MSCI (Morgan Stanley Capital International) Emerging Markets Index increased by 36.5%. This compares with an advance of 10.6% for the MSCI Europe Index and is almost 9 times the 4.1% advance […]
2007 was the fifth consecutive year that emerging market stocks registered a double–digit advance. They significantly outperformed US and other advanced markets. The benchmark we use is the broad MSCI (Morgan Stanley Capital International) Emerging Markets Index; it increased by 39.4% in 2007. Like last year, the same basic question applies: “Will the Boom Continue?” […]
We expected the foreclosure, subprime mess to become the central focal point of US politics; it has now done so. The reason is simple. A single foreclosure on a street impacts the entire population of the street not just the household that lost their home. All nearby property values are hurt. Foreclosures are an indicator […]
Runs on financial institutions are not always seen as lines forming in front of banks. The State of Florida has suspended withdrawals from a state operated pooled investment fund. The fund was designed to benefit Florida’s counties, cities and school districts by pooling and investing their short term funds for them. The suspension occurred just […]
It is the evening of Thanksgiving Day and I am looking at the wide variety of Vietnamese dishes on offer at a charming restaurant located in the courtyard of a former Buddhist monastery in Hanoi. No turkey or apple pie tonight. I pass up the charcoal-grilled squid and opt for large barbecued shrimp, which are […]
Report From Beijing November 6, 2007 It’s early Tuesday morning here and 13 hours ahead of east coast time. The blackberry connection is perfect so we are current on email, telephone messages and have digested the news from Citi and Google. We’ve absorbed Federal Reserve Governor Mishkin’s speech. The contrasts in Beijing are remarkable. We […]
Before we leave for Dublin in a few hours we want to report making some major strategy changes. These were done during the last two weeks. Cumberland clients will see them in their reports. Here are the bullets: We have instituted a cash reserve in the US managed accounts. The target is 10% with a […]
The world is watching a stock market bubble in Shanghai. Here are some bubble bullets; then, we’ll comment on the risk with Chinese “A” shares. When stock markets are rising quickly and the curve turns parabolic, emotion takes over and valuation no longer drives pricing. Using valuation techniques is irrelevant in decision making during bubbles. […]
