Cumberland Advisors Market Commentary – COVID-19, SARS, Markets?

Author: David R. Kotok, Post Date: February 21, 2020
image_pdfimage_print

Many market agents have invoked SARS as a model for assessing market strategy and reaction functions to COVID-19.

They’re wrong.

Market Commentary - Cumberland Advisors - COVID-19, SARS, Markets

Here’s a link to the official WHO statistics regarding SARS: “Summary of probable SARS cases with onset of illness from 1 November 2002 to 31 July 2003,” https://www.who.int/csr/sars/country/table2004_04_21/en/.

Take a look by country and case count and lethality.

The viral illness dubbed COVID-19 has already surpassed SARS by nearly every metric, and the narrative is still unfolding. There are now credible estimates of up to 5 million infectious cases coming worldwide before this pandemic peaks.

Credible fatality rate estimates are above 2% and may reach 4%. The intertemporal period between infection and the appearance of symptoms, and then to either complete recovery, a lingering recovery, or death is still unknown, but preliminary evidence suggests it could average a month or even more. Remember: The death you see today is often that of a patient who contracted COVID-19 three or four weeks ago or more and didn’t know it.

We are only now seeing this global pandemic spreading beyond China to the rest of Asia and the rest of the world. Much more will be revealed about the epidemiological, economic, and social effects of this virus.

The coronavirus is a huge game changer for financial markets. We will be covering that topic closely.

We have already moved clients’ portfolios and continue with that process daily. We are tracking global news sources with the efforts of four people.

To be continued…

Here is the Johns Hopkins nCoV dashboard and case map, which we have mentioned before: https://gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/bda7594740fd40299423467b48e9ecf6.

And here is a brief list of reports on the spread of coronavirus around the world.

China: “Coronavirus Outbreaks at China Prisons Spark Worries About Unknown Clusters,”
https://www.wsj.com/articles/coronavirus-outbreaks-at-china-prisons-spark-worries-about-unknown-clusters-11582286150

Singapore: “Coronavirus: 10 more patients discharged; 1 new case linked to woman who had dengue,” Straits Times, Feb. 21, https://www.straitstimes.com/singapore/health/coronavirus-10-more-patients-discharged-1-new-case-bringing-total-to-86

South Korea: “Shadowy Church Is at Center of Coronavirus Outbreak in South Korea,” New York Times, Feb. 21, https://www.nytimes.com/2020/02/21/world/asia/south-korea-coronavirus-shincheonji.html

Japan: “Japan Limits Large Gatherings to Thwart Coronavirus,” Wall Street Journal, Feb. 21, https://www.wsj.com/articles/coronavirus-hit-japan-limits-large-gatherings-11582282621

India: “India Is in the Middle Of A Coronavirus YouTube Frenzy, And It’s Going to Get People Killed,” BuzzFeed, Feb. 19, https://www.buzzfeednews.com/article/ryanhatesthis/the-most-popular-youtube-videos-about-the-coronavirus-are

Iran: “Iran Reports 2 More Deaths, 13 New Cases of New Coronavirus,” US News, Feb. 21, https://www.usnews.com/news/health-news/articles/2020-02-21/iran-reports-2-more-deaths-13-new-cases-of-new-coronavirus

Israel: “Israeli that returned from coronavirus cruise ship tests positive,” Jerusalem Post, Feb. 21, https://www.jpost.com/Israel-News/Israelis-cleared-to-return-from-Diamond-Princess-could-have-coronavirus-618328

Palestine: “Coronavirus scare sparks riot, tire burning in Jericho,” Jerusalem Post, Feb. 20, https://www.jpost.com/Israel-News/Coronavirus-scare-sparks-riot-tire-burning-in-Jericho-618229

Egypt: “Egypt confirms coronavirus case, the first in Africa,” Aljazeera, Feb. 14, https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2020/02/egypt-confirms-coronavirus-case-africa-200214190840134.html

France: “France announces the first coronavirus death in Europe and its 12th case,” New York Times, Feb. 19, https://www.nytimes.com/2020/02/15/world/asia/coronavirus-china-live-updates.html – link-1f5114e8

Germany: “Germany Confirms Two More Cases of Coronavirus, Raising Overall Number to 16,” New York Times, Feb. 11, https://www.nytimes.com/reuters/2020/02/11/world/europe/11reuters-china-health-germany-cases.html

Mexico and South America: “Coronavirus May Sideswipe Chile, Peru and Brazil Economies, Leave Mexico Unscathed,” New York Times, Feb. 20, https://www.nytimes.com/reuters/2020/02/20/world/americas/20reuters-latam-economy-coronavirus-analysis.html

The US: “Coronavirus-infected Americans flown home against CDC’s advice,”   https://www.washingtonpost.com/health/coronavirus-diamond-princess-cruise-americans/2020/02/20/b6f54cae-5279-11ea-b119-4faabac6674f_story.html

David R. Kotok
Chairman and Chief Investment Officer
Email | Bio


Wuhan Coronavirus Series
by David R. Kotok

https://www.cumber.com/wuhan-coronavirus/


Links to other websites or electronic media controlled or offered by Third-Parties (non-affiliates of Cumberland Advisors) are provided only as a reference and courtesy to our users. Cumberland Advisors has no control over such websites, does not recommend or endorse any opinions, ideas, products, information, or content of such sites, and makes no warranties as to the accuracy, completeness, reliability or suitability of their content. Cumberland Advisors hereby disclaims liability for any information, materials, products or services posted or offered at any of the Third-Party websites. The Third-Party may have a privacy and/or security policy different from that of Cumberland Advisors. Therefore, please refer to the specific privacy and security policies of the Third-Party when accessing their websites.

Sign up for our FREE Cumberland Market Commentaries

Cumberland Advisors Market Commentaries offer insights and analysis on upcoming, important economic issues that potentially impact global financial markets. Our team shares their thinking on global economic developments, market news and other factors that often influence investment opportunities and strategies.

cumber map
Cumberland Advisors® is registered with the SEC under the Investment Advisers Act of 1940. All information contained herein is for informational purposes only and does not constitute a solicitation or offer to sell securities or investment advisory services. Such an offer can only be made in the states where Cumberland Advisors is either registered or is a Notice Filer or where an exemption from such registration or filing is available. New accounts will not be accepted unless and until all local regulations have been satisfied. This presentation does not purport to be a complete description of our performance or investment services. Please feel free to forward our commentaries (with proper attribution) to others who may be interested. It is not our intention to state or imply in any manner that past results and profitability is an indication of future performance. All material presented is compiled from sources believed to be reliable. However, accuracy cannot be guaranteed.
Loading...