Cumberland Advisors Market Commentary – Osaka and the DMZ

Author: David R. Kotok, Post Date: June 30, 2019

Ceasefire:  An agreement to temporarily stop shooting while trying to reach a truce

Market Commentary - Cumberland Advisors - Xi & Trump

Truce:  A more durable cessation of shooting while antagonists attempt to reconcile differences and reach a peace treaty

Treaty: An agreement which is then memorialized and signed by both sides

The US and China seemed to have tentatively achieved a treaty when Xi visited Trump at Mar a Lago. Then more shooting started.  The US and China had a truce after Buenos Aires, or so it seemed. Then more shooting started. Now after Osaka we have a ceasefire. We shall see. Here is a Bloomberg analysis of each side’s ceasefire position: .

The US and North Korea have had a ceasefire for decades. It has been occasionally broken by shooting. We don’t have a truce, only optics. Will there be a truce? We shall see.

A stock market relief rally because of an Osaka ceasefire will also see a likely reduction in Fed rate-cut expectations. How do these two things balance each other? We shall see.

Meanwhile, we still have some cash reserve in our US stock market ETF accounts.

cumber map
Cumberland Advisors® is registered with the SEC under the Investment Advisers Act of 1940. All information contained herein is for informational purposes only and does not constitute a solicitation or offer to sell securities or investment advisory services. Such an offer can only be made in the states where Cumberland Advisors is either registered or is a Notice Filer or where an exemption from such registration or filing is available. New accounts will not be accepted unless and until all local regulations have been satisfied. This presentation does not purport to be a complete description of our performance or investment services. Please feel free to forward our commentaries (with proper attribution) to others who may be interested. It is not our intention to state or imply in any manner that past results and profitability is an indication of future performance. All material presented is compiled from sources believed to be reliable. However, accuracy cannot be guaranteed.