Cumberland Advisors Week in Review (Apr 20, 2020 – Apr 24, 2020)

Author: Cumberland Advisors, Post Date: April 25, 2020
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The Cumberland Advisors Week in Review is a recap of news, commentary, and opinion from our team.

Week In Review

These are not revised assessments, and circumstances may have changed in the market from the time of original publication. We also include older commentaries that our editors have determined may be of interest to our audience. Your feedback is always welcome.

CUMBERLAND ADVISORS’ WEEKLY RECAP

As part of Cumberland Advisors’ continuous effort to maintain strong customer relationships, we offer this week’s short video discussing current market conditions and how we are positioning portfolios.

Thank you for joining Cumberland Advisors for this end-of-week update on market conditions, bonds & equities with me, Matt McAleer, and John Mousseau.

John Mousseau leads today on this week’s video.He talks about:
-Period of normalcy this week for bonds.
-Key for this week: Deals came to market and got done easily. Most municipal bond deals were oversubscribed and that’s a good sign. We had stability in the markets.
-The real issue this week is Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell’s talk of states declaring bankruptcy instead of getting federal aid. There are a number of problems that this scenario raises.
-John wrote a commentary this week about McConnell’s statement and the link is here if you missed it: https://www.cumber.com/cumberland-advisors-market-commentary-mcconnell-as-meredith-whitney/

I’m next with my take on markets this week. My take on a few things:
-Another volatile week.
-What’s positive and negative this week?
-The market was able to price in the volatility in oil.
-Very interesting in what’s going on with transportation. What’s under the hood?
-What are we seeing in biotech? Medical devices?
-What is VIX trying to tell us?

Once again, we shot our own video this week. Thank you for taking the time to join us.

Please reach out with any questions/comments you may have about this week’s
update; we appreciate your calls, comments, and emails.

Watch in the player above or at this link: https://youtu.be/uv59KJMqi_Y

Have a safe weekend,

-Matt McAleer

Matt enjoys your feedback. You can reach him at:
-Link to Matt’s Email: Matthew.McAleer@Cumber.com
-Link to Matt’s Twitter: https://twitter.com/MattMcAleer4
-Link to Matt’s LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/matthew-c-mcaleer/
-Call Matt: (800) 257-7013

Other questions or comments? Email us at info@cumber.com or give us a call at (800) 257-7013.

Contact Matt or any one of our advisors by following this link: https://www.cumber.com/our-people/


Money Show Webinar - Bond Markets Through the Coronavirus with John R. Mousseau, CFA

Watch John’s April 23, 2020 presentation,  “Bond Markets Through the Coronavirus” here: https://www.cumber.com/bond-markets-through-the-coronavirus-john-mousseau/


Cumberland Advisors In The News

Fed Following WWII Model to Control Yield Curve

Bloomberg Radio – April 21, 2020

David Kotok, Chairman & Chief Investment Officer at Cumberland Advisors, discusses bond markets, the Fed and current investment outlook. Hosted by Lisa Abramowicz and Paul Sweeney.
Running time 07:36 – Play Episode: https://www.bloomberg.com/news/audio/2020-04-21/fed-following-wwii-model-to-control-yield-curve-kotok-radio


McConnell’s bankruptcy suggestion boomerangs

by Brian Tumulty – The Bond Buyer – April 24, 2020

Critics say Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell’s suggestion that Congress should allow states to file for bankruptcy would undermine efforts to quickly restart the economy and could damage the municipal market. John Mousseau, president and chief executive officer and director of fixed income at Cumberland Advisors, likened McConnell’s comment to the 2010 prediction by Meredith Whitney, a noted bank analyst, predicting hundreds of billions of dollars of municipal defaults were coming. They never materialized. She caused lots of market damage and outflows from municipal bond funds before sanity resumed and yields moved lower than they had been before she made her remarks, according to Mousseau. Senate Democratic Minority Leader Chuck Schumer said the backlash “has given even more momentum for state and local assistance,” making McConnell “increasingly isolated.” [Continued behind Paywall at The Bond Buyer…]


Lots of Muni Bonds Are Going to Be Just Fine

by Barry Ritholtz – April 13, 2020

(Bloomberg Opinion) — In an extraordinary attempt to help the economy in the midst of the coronavirus economic downturn, the Federal Reserve’s balance sheet has ballooned to more than $6 trillion.

How this has affected fixed-income pricing, yield, risk and even trading is the subject of this week’s Masters in Business interview with John R. Mousseau, president, chief executive officer and director of fixed income at Cumberland Advisors. Mousseau also is the co-author of the book “Adventures in Muniland: A Guide to Municipal Bond Investing in the Post-Crisis Era.”

He notes the current slump is very different from the 2008-09 financial crisis. That event was driven by credit deterioration and mortgage defaults. Things only came to a head only after defaults soared and bond markets developed liquidity problems after the collapse of Lehman Brothers. In the fixed-income world today, the coronavirus pandemic is characterized mostly by economic paralysis, but so far not mass defaults.

Full story at Yahoo Finance: https://finance.yahoo.com/news/lots-muni-bonds-going-just-153254865.html

More News About Cumberland Advisors Here: https://www.cumber.com/news


Cumberland Advisors Market Commentary

Cumberland Advisors Market Commentary offers insights and analysis on upcoming, important economic issues that potentially impact global financial markets. Our team shares their thinking on global economic developments, market news and other factors that often influence investment opportunities and strategies. Our readers appreciate its timeliness, depth of analysis, and quality of research.

To read current and past commentaries, visit www.cumber.com/category/market-commentary/

 


 

Cumberland Advisors Market Commentary – The UK Economy Falls Off the Cliff; Brexit Negotiations Resume

Author: William Witherell, Ph.D., Post Date: April 24, 2020

Market Commentary - Cumberland Advisors - The UK Economy Falls Off the Cliff; Brexit Negotiations ResumeThe economic situation in the UK has worsened dramatically in just the month and a half since our March 4th commentary on the subject. Last week, the Bank of England’s (BOE) governor, Andrew Bailey, told journalists that he did not disagree with the Office for Budget Responsibility’s forecast of a 35% decline in the UK’s [Continued…]

Cumberland Advisors Market Commentary – McConnell as Meredith Whitney

Author: John R. Mousseau, CFA, Post Date: April 23, 2020

Market Commentary - Cumberland Advisors -McConnell as Meredith Whitney (Mousseau)Senate Majority Leader McConnell yesterday was reported by Bloomberg News as saying that he “would certainly be in favor of allowing states to use the bankruptcy route” rather than giving them a Federal bailout. This reminded us of 2010 when Meredith Whitney, a noted bank analyst, predicted that there would be hundreds of billions of [Continued…]

Cumberland Advisors Market Commentary – About Masks – (Plus a personal note)

Author: David R. Kotok, Post Date: April 22, 2020

David Kotok - About MasksStraight Talk on Masks from Anthony Fauci – In a widely shared YouTube interview with Lilly Singh, Anthony Fauci, head of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases (NIAID) and a member of the White House coronavirus task force, explained the rationale for wearing face masks. He also explained why the CDC didn’t initially suggest [Continued…]

Cumberland Advisors Market Commentary – COVID – 19: Health Recovery and Economic Recovery Go Hand in Hand

Author: Peter A. Gold, Esquire & Jeffrey P. Gold, MD, Post Date: April 20, 2020

COVID - 19: Health Recovery and Economic Recovery Go Hand in Hand There is a lot of competing information in circulation relating to the current coronavirus pandemic and there is now a rush to offer opinion on how to best reopen economies and communities in a safe manner. It is our honor and privilege to introduce you to the following authors who also happen to be brothers. [Continued…]

Cumberland Advisors Market Commentary – Sturm und Drang & Beethoven’s Pastoral

Author: David R. Kotok, Post Date: April 19, 2020

Sturm und Drang & Beethoven’s PastoralSurprisingly, the German term Sturm und Drang originated with the American Revolution in 1776. The term first appeared as the title of a play by Friedrich Maximilian Klinger. The setting of the play is the unfolding American Revolution, in which, says Wikipedia, “the author gives violent expression to difficult emotions and extols individuality and subjectivity [Continued…]

 

Cumberland Advisors Market Commentary – Narrow Banks

Author: Robert Eisenbeis, Ph.D., Post Date: April 17, 2020

Narrow Banks

In a move largely overlooked due to the virus pandemic, on March 25, Judge Andrew L. Carter, Jr., of the United States District Court for the Southern District of New York dismissed a case filed by principals of The Narrow Bank (TNB) against the Federal Reserve Bank of New York (https://www.tnbusa.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/03/2020.03.25-TNB-Order.pdf). What is The Narrow [Continued…]

Cumberland Advisors Market Commentary – Fed Goes to War

Author: David R. Kotok, Post Date: April 16, 2020

Fed Goes to War

The April 12, 2020, posting on the Money, Banking and Financial Markets site, entitled “The Fed Goes to War: Part 3,” expands on the discussion of the extraordinary measures taken recently by the Federal Reserve. Let me offer a personal endorsement: I find the site consistently and exceptionally helpful. Much has already been written about about this expansion of the Fed’s arsenal and the list of new facilities. Essentially, the playbook for last decade’s Great Financial Crisis has been reopened, and a whole new set of tools has been added. [Continued…]

 

The CDC Foundation

Author: David R. Kotok, Post Date: March 23, 2020

CDC Foundation Dr Judy Monroe & David KotokDear readers. The CDC Foundation is not widely known. It’s a 501(c)3 that was created by Congress as a special charitable agency. The Foundation works right alongside the CDC and other national health agencies but is an independent charity. It has a special-purpose charter. Its purpose is to respond rapidly to threats like COVID-19 or [Continued…]


 


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Cumberland Advisors Market Commentaries offer insights and analysis on upcoming, important economic issues that potentially impact global financial markets. Our team shares their thinking on global economic developments, market news and other factors that often influence investment opportunities and strategies.

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