Cumberland Advisors Week in Review (Aug 03, 2020 – Aug 07, 2020)

Author: Cumberland Advisors, Post Date: August 8, 2020
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The Cumberland Advisors Week in Review is a recap of news, commentary, and opinion from our team.

Week In Review

These are not revised assessments, and circumstances may have changed in the market from the time of original publication. We also include older commentaries that our editors have determined may be of interest to our audience. Your feedback is always welcome.

CUMBERLAND ADVISORS’ WEEKLY RECAP

As part of Cumberland Advisors’ continuous effort to maintain strong customer relationships, we offer this week’s short video discussing current market conditions and how we are positioning portfolios.

Dear Clients & Friends,

Thank you for joining Cumberland Advisors for this end-of-week update on market conditions, bonds & equities with Matt McAleer and John Mousseau, CFA.

This week:

Matt McAleer on ETFs & Equities

-The Market action is broadening
-Seeing a bid to previously beaten down value names
-Massive cash on the side moving in
-Are these catch up trades?
-Are we seeing a rotation out of growth names?
-For weeks we’ve seen a steady bid to value
-As long as money is looking for new homes, the market should retain a bid
-There will still be pullbacks
-We’re seeing big upgrades in earnings estimates
-We’re seeing a little frothy sentiment coming from the institutional crowd
-Massive Fed Liquidity has to find a home somewhere and we’re watching it

 

John Mousseau’s Update on the Fixed Income Market

-T-Yields basically where they were last Friday
-Jobs numbers today were good, payrolls higher, unemployment lower
-The pace of jobs is slowing, something to keep an eye on
-Next week, CPI & PPI will be watched
-Fed less concerned about inflation, willing to tolerate it to offset periods of low inflation
-As we move forward, we expect to see hope for a vaccine to help move markets
-We expect robust muni demand
-The possibility of a Biden victory means high muni demand,
-Munis have higher value if tax rates go up

Please reach out with any questions/comments you may have about this update; we appreciate your calls, comments, and emails. Watch in the player above or at this link: https://youtu.be/Tmpupfrwnfg

 

Stay safe, healthy, and have a great weekend.

-Matt McAleer & Cumberland Advisors

Matt enjoys your feedback. You can reach him at:
-Link to Matt’s Email: Matthew.McAleer@Cumber.com
-Link to Matt’s Twitter: https://twitter.com/MattMcAleer4
-Link to Matt’s LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/matthew-c-mcaleer/
-Call Matt: (800) 257-7013

Other questions or comments? Email us at info@cumber.com or give us a call at (800) 257-7013.

Contact Matt or any one of our advisors by following this link: https://www.cumber.com/our-people/


IN THE NEWS

Cumberland Advisors In The News

Camp Kotok: Maine Woods, Economists & Wine

Quoted: David R. Kotok | Posted on: 08/08/2020 read more

Highlands News Sun – COVID-19: Florida vs. Taiwan

Quoted: David R. Kotok | Posted on: 08/08/2020 read more

Barron’s – July Jobs Report: Better Than Expected, Better Than Feared

Quoted: William Witherell, Ph.D. | Posted on: 08/07/2020 read more

The U.S. election is getting ugly – and investors are getting nervous

Quoted: David R. Kotok | Posted on: 07/31/2020 read more

TREASURIES-Yields fall ahead of TIPS auction

Quoted: John R. Mousseau, CFA | Posted on: 07/23/2020 read more

BondBuyer – Confidence high among muni investors

 

Quoted: John R. Mousseau, CFA | Posted on: 07/16/2020 read more


Cumberland Advisors Market Commentary

Cumberland Advisors Market Commentary offers insights and analysis on upcoming, important economic issues that potentially impact global financial markets. Our team shares their thinking on global economic developments, market news and other factors that often influence investment opportunities and strategies. Our readers appreciate its timeliness, depth of analysis, and quality of research.

To read current and past commentaries, visit https://www.cumber.com/category/market-commentary/


Credit Spreads

Author: David R. Kotok, Post Date: August 6, 2020

Cumberland Advisors - Credit Spreads We track many spreads at Cumberland and circulate a key summary of them every morning. For this public commentary I extracted the ones you see below (the last 7 items are the key ones to examine) because they help tell the story of how the Fed’s activities have decreased risk pricing in the financial markets. […]


Why Investors Are Looking at Taiwan

Author: William Witherell, Ph.D., Post Date: August 5, 2020

Market Commentary - Cumberland Advisors - Why Investors Are Looking at Taiwan Consider a place that has had only 476 Covid-19 cases and just 7 deaths. This sounds like a rural town in the US with a small population and good access to medical care. Actually, it is Taiwan, a small country in Asia with a very dense population of 23.6 million people, situated about 100 miles […]


Florida vs. Taiwan

Author: David R. Kotok, Post Date: August 4, 2020

Market Commentary - Cumberland Advisors - Florida vs. Taiwan “The first time it’s a novelty. The second time, people know what they’re in for and are less willing to take another hit. The virus is exposing socioeconomic fault lines: it’s harder to stay home with a head cold if you work casual shifts for minimum wage and can’t afford to miss a few days.” […]


Some Thoughts for a Sunday Morning

Author: David R. Kotok, Post Date: August 2, 2020

Some Thoughts for a Sunday Morning Some Thoughts for a Sunday Morning #1 – Two quotes from Tocqueville: “Liberty cannot be established without morality, nor morality without faith” (Democracy in America, http://libertytree.ca/quotes/Alexis.de.Tocqueville.Quote.8AF2). “The greatness of America lies not in being more enlightened than any other nation, but rather in her ability to repair her faults” (Democracy in America,  https://en.wikiquote.org/wiki/Alexis_de_Tocqueville). #2 – […]


Markets, Election, Axios Poll

Author: David R. Kotok, Post Date: July 31, 2020

Cumberland Advisors Market Commentary For the next 100 days or so, the growing focus on the US election may drive news flows and alter markets. Remember, though, there is a chasm between what polls are saying now and what markets are pricing as expectations for tomorrow. Most market agents are looking at 2021 and are now focused on a […]


US Stock Market Sectors & Gainesville, Florida

Author: David R. Kotok, Post Date: July 29, 2020

Market Commentary - Cumberland Advisors - US Stock Market Sectors & Gainesville Florida We were about to publish this commentary on the American stock market sectors when a news item about the healthcare sector crossed our screen. So we have decided to lead with it and then go to the stock market. Here is a fresh report about behavior and its consequences at a medical school in Gainesville, […]


A Modest Proposal

Author: Robert Eisenbeis, Ph.D., Post Date: July 28, 2020

Market Commentary - Cumberland Advisors - A Modest Proposal “In practice, the Fed has never adopted operating procedures designed to control reserves in order to use the money multiplier relationship to control deposits.” (Goodfriend and Hargraves, “A Historical Assessment of the Rationales and Functions of Reserve Requirements,” Source: https://www.richmondfed.org) In response to the pandemic crisis, the Federal Reserve has cut the federal funds rate […]


Update on Fed Repo and Reverse Repo Facility

Author: Robert Eisenbeis, Ph.D., Post Date: July 27, 2020

Market Commentary - Cumberland Advisors - Update on Fed Repo and Reverse Repo Facility Details on offerings and takedowns are interesting and provide clues as to the state of liquidity, even given the large volume of Treasuries coming to market.


Rebekah Jones

Author: David R. Kotok, Post Date: July 26, 2020

Market Commentary - Cumberland Advisors - A Duel Over Data (Or, Three Cheers for Rebekah Jones) A Duel Over Data (Or, Three Cheers for Rebekah Jones) On April 20, 2020, Dr. Deborah Birx, response coordinator for the White House Coronavirus Task Force, praised the Florida Department of Health website for its useful detail: “The Florida Department of Health’s website is extraordinary, and this is what every department of health should have…. […]


In its 30th year, the Frank G. Berlin Sr. Foundation Small Business Awards recognizes member businesses with locally owned and operated businesses. Cumberland Advisors was recognized last year as the “Professional Services Business of the year” for 2019 and we wish the 2020 finalists continued success and luck for this year’s selection. The Sarasota Chamber will conduct the event virtually on August 28th from 12 p.m. to 1 p.m. Details here: https://www.sarasotachamber.com/2020-virtual-sba.html

The Greater Sarasota Chamber of Commerce - SBA 2019 - Winner- Professional Services Category

July 3, 2019 – Sarasota, Florida – On Friday, June 14, 2019, business and community leaders gathered for the 29th Frank G. Berlin, Sr. Small Business Awards, presented by the Herald Tribune Media Group. Three finalists were selected across five categories: Hospitality and Tourism, Non-Profit, Products and Services, Retail and Professional Services. We are honored to share that Cumberland Advisors was selected as the winner within the Professional Services category. ”

Press Release: https://www.tampabaynewswire.com/2019/07/03/cumberland-advisors-receives-sarasota-chamber-of-commerce-small-business-award-within-the-professional-services-category-78721


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Cumberland Advisors Market Commentaries offer insights and analysis on upcoming, important economic issues that potentially impact global financial markets. Our team shares their thinking on global economic developments, market news and other factors that often influence investment opportunities and strategies.

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Cumberland Advisors® is registered with the SEC under the Investment Advisers Act of 1940. All information contained herein is for informational purposes only and does not constitute a solicitation or offer to sell securities or investment advisory services. Such an offer can only be made in the states where Cumberland Advisors is either registered or is a Notice Filer or where an exemption from such registration or filing is available. New accounts will not be accepted unless and until all local regulations have been satisfied. This presentation does not purport to be a complete description of our performance or investment services. Please feel free to forward our commentaries (with proper attribution) to others who may be interested. It is not our intention to state or imply in any manner that past results and profitability is an indication of future performance. All material presented is compiled from sources believed to be reliable. However, accuracy cannot be guaranteed.
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