Cumberland Advisors Week in Review (Aug 10, 2020 – Aug 14, 2020)

Author: Cumberland Advisors, Post Date: August 15, 2020
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The Cumberland Advisors Week in Review is a recap of news, commentary, and opinion from our team.

Week In Review

These are not revised assessments, and circumstances may have changed in the market from the time of original publication. We also include older commentaries that our editors have determined may be of interest to our audience. Your feedback is always welcome.

CUMBERLAND ADVISORS’ WEEKLY RECAP

As part of Cumberland Advisors’ continuous effort to maintain strong customer relationships, we offer this week’s short video discussing current market conditions and how we are positioning portfolios.

Dear Clients & Friends,

Thank you for joining Cumberland Advisors for this end-of-week update on market conditions, bonds & equities with Matt McAleer and John Mousseau, CFA.

This week:

Matt McAleer on ETFs & Equities

-Continued bid into the heavies (industrials, transports, etc)
-A slow reallocation from some of the hotter sectors
-Quiet week trading
-Clients in our strategies have seen over the last number of weeks new purchases in industrials, basic materials, & banks
-Important to barbell growth allocation in case growth stalls

John Mousseau’s Update on the Fixed Income Market

-Yields higher this week
-Now in the world where long tax-free high grade bonds are less than Treasury bonds
-The world has gotten back to normal -The world is getting “less bad”
-Inflation higher – we’re off the mat – signs point to higher inflation down the road
-We’re taking some profits and playing defense, but not all in once
-Looking forward to hopefully good number next week

Please reach out with any questions/comments you may have about this update; we appreciate your calls, comments, and emails. Watch in the player above or at this link: https://youtu.be/NSQ4xtkd4RI

Stay safe, healthy, and have a great weekend.

-Matt McAleer & Cumberland Advisors

Matt enjoys your feedback. You can reach him at:
-Link to Matt’s Email: Matthew.McAleer@Cumber.com
-Link to Matt’s Twitter: https://twitter.com/MattMcAleer4
-Link to Matt’s LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/matthew-c-mcaleer/
-Call Matt: (800) 257-7013

Other questions or comments? Email us at info@cumber.com or give us a call at (800) 257-7013.

Contact Matt or any one of our advisors by following this link: https://www.cumber.com/our-people/


IN THE NEWS

Cumberland Advisors In The News

Inflation TIPS: Living On The Hedge

Quoted: John R. Mousseau, CFA | Posted on: 08/15/2020 read more

WaPo – In a bleak economy, these companies are flourishing

Quoted: David R. Kotok | Posted on: 08/15/2020 read more

Camp Kotok: Maine Woods, Economists & Wine

Quoted: David R. Kotok | Posted on: 08/08/2020 read more

Highlands News Sun – COVID-19: Florida vs. Taiwan

Quoted: David R. Kotok | Posted on: 08/08/2020 read more

Barron’s – July Jobs Report: Better Than Expected, Better Than Feared

Quoted: William Witherell, Ph.D. | Posted on: 08/07/2020 read more

The U.S. election is getting ugly – and investors are getting nervous

Quoted: David R. Kotok | Posted on: 07/31/2020 read more

TREASURIES-Yields fall ahead of TIPS auction

Quoted: John R. Mousseau, CFA | Posted on: 07/23/2020 read more

BondBuyer – Confidence high among muni investors

Quoted: John R. Mousseau, CFA | Posted on: 07/16/2020 read more


Cumberland Advisors Market Commentary

Cumberland Advisors Market Commentary offers insights and analysis on upcoming, important economic issues that potentially impact global financial markets. Our team shares their thinking on global economic developments, market news and other factors that often influence investment opportunities and strategies. Our readers appreciate its timeliness, depth of analysis, and quality of research.

To read current and past commentaries, visit https://www.cumber.com/category/market-commentary/


Zika & COVID-19: We Need Action Now!

Author: David R. Kotok, Post Date: August 14, 2020
Market Commentary - Cumberland Advisors - Zika & COVID-19- We Need Action Now Dear Readers: This is an appeal to Democrats, Republicans, and Independents, House Members and Senators, and including those on the far right and on the far left of American politics. The nation needs you to set aside the partisan politics. Students, their teachers, businesses, investors, the retired, the unemployed, the charities, state and local governments, […]


Interest Rates and Yield Curve Control, Part 2

Author: , Post Date: August 13, 2020
Market Commentary - Cumberland Advisors - Interest Rates and Yield Curve Control, Part 2 This is part 2 in a series on interest rates and yield curve controls. Here’s the link to part 1: https://www.cumber.com/cumberland-advisors-market-commentary-interest-rates-and-yield-curve-control-part-1/ First, we want to thank BCA Research and our friend Caroline Miller, Chief Strategist at BCA, for permission to share their charts. At Cumberland, we use BCA Research. My colleague John Mousseau and I […]


A Quick Look at Job Creation

Author: Robert Eisenbeis, Ph.D., Post Date: August 11, 2020
Market Commentary - Cumberland Advisors - A Quick Look at Job Creation (Eisenbeis) Each month, the BLS produces a wealth of data from both its household survey and its establishment survey. The latter, in particular, gives us a view of where jobs are actually being created during this terrible pandemic. Normally, the data widely cited from these surveys are seasonally adjusted, but for our purposes we will look […]


Managing Hurricane Risk in a Bond Portfolio

Author: John R. Mousseau, CFA & Patricia Healy, CFA, Post Date: August 10, 2020
Market Commentary - Cumberland Advisors - Managing Hurricane Risk in a Bond Portfolio The Northeast continues to clean up from Hurricane Isaias, which swept up the Atlantic coast to New York and parts of New England on Thursday. Below is a slide from a presentation by our good friend Tom Doe, who heads up Municipal Market Advisors (http://www.mma-research.com). Tom’s firm does in-depth quantitative and qualitative research on the […]


Interest Rates and Yield Curve Control, Part 1

Author: David R. Kotok, Post Date:
Market Commentary - Cumberland Advisors - Interest Rates and Yield Curve Control, Part 1 “The Trimmed Mean PCE inflation rate is an alternative measure of core inflation in the price index for personal consumption expenditures (PCE). It is calculated by staff at the Dallas Fed, using data from the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA).” Through June 2020, “The Trimmed Mean PCE inflation rate over the 12 months ending in […]


Paulding County, Georgia

Author: David R. Kotok, Post Date: August 9, 2020
Paulding County, Georgia (Kotok) “All politics is local,” Tip O’Neill famously observed. (In fact, this former Speaker of the House wrote a book by that title.) As the next chapter of COVID-19 and election-year politics take us closer to the November deadline, we believe that the school-opening issue is a new major influence. Scenario 1: Schools are opened with minimal […]


Credit Spreads

Author: David R. Kotok, Post Date: August 6, 2020

Cumberland Advisors - Credit Spreads We track many spreads at Cumberland and circulate a key summary of them every morning. For this public commentary I extracted the ones you see below (the last 7 items are the key ones to examine) because they help tell the story of how the Fed’s activities have decreased risk pricing in the financial markets. […]


Why Investors Are Looking at Taiwan

Author: William Witherell, Ph.D., Post Date: August 5, 2020

Market Commentary - Cumberland Advisors - Why Investors Are Looking at Taiwan Consider a place that has had only 476 Covid-19 cases and just 7 deaths. This sounds like a rural town in the US with a small population and good access to medical care. Actually, it is Taiwan, a small country in Asia with a very dense population of 23.6 million people, situated about 100 miles […]


Florida vs. Taiwan

Author: David R. Kotok, Post Date: August 4, 2020

Market Commentary - Cumberland Advisors - Florida vs. Taiwan “The first time it’s a novelty. The second time, people know what they’re in for and are less willing to take another hit. The virus is exposing socioeconomic fault lines: it’s harder to stay home with a head cold if you work casual shifts for minimum wage and can’t afford to miss a few days.” […]


Some Thoughts for a Sunday Morning

Author: David R. Kotok, Post Date: August 2, 2020

Some Thoughts for a Sunday Morning Some Thoughts for a Sunday Morning #1 – Two quotes from Tocqueville: “Liberty cannot be established without morality, nor morality without faith” (Democracy in America, http://libertytree.ca/quotes/Alexis.de.Tocqueville.Quote.8AF2). “The greatness of America lies not in being more enlightened than any other nation, but rather in her ability to repair her faults” (Democracy in America,  https://en.wikiquote.org/wiki/Alexis_de_Tocqueville). #2 – […]


Markets, Election, Axios Poll

Author: David R. Kotok, Post Date: July 31, 2020

Cumberland Advisors Market Commentary For the next 100 days or so, the growing focus on the US election may drive news flows and alter markets. Remember, though, there is a chasm between what polls are saying now and what markets are pricing as expectations for tomorrow. Most market agents are looking at 2021 and are now focused on a […]


US Stock Market Sectors & Gainesville, Florida

Author: David R. Kotok, Post Date: July 29, 2020

Market Commentary - Cumberland Advisors - US Stock Market Sectors & Gainesville Florida We were about to publish this commentary on the American stock market sectors when a news item about the healthcare sector crossed our screen. So we have decided to lead with it and then go to the stock market. Here is a fresh report about behavior and its consequences at a medical school in Gainesville, […]


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Judith Monroe from CDC Foundation & David Kotok explore Zika & other initiatives of CDC


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Cumberland Advisors Market Commentaries offer insights and analysis on upcoming, important economic issues that potentially impact global financial markets. Our team shares their thinking on global economic developments, market news and other factors that often influence investment opportunities and strategies.

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Cumberland Advisors® is registered with the SEC under the Investment Advisers Act of 1940. All information contained herein is for informational purposes only and does not constitute a solicitation or offer to sell securities or investment advisory services. Such an offer can only be made in the states where Cumberland Advisors is either registered or is a Notice Filer or where an exemption from such registration or filing is available. New accounts will not be accepted unless and until all local regulations have been satisfied. This presentation does not purport to be a complete description of our performance or investment services. Please feel free to forward our commentaries (with proper attribution) to others who may be interested. It is not our intention to state or imply in any manner that past results and profitability is an indication of future performance. All material presented is compiled from sources believed to be reliable. However, accuracy cannot be guaranteed.
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