Cumberland Advisors Week in Review (Aug 24, 2020 – Aug 28, 2020)

Author: Cumberland Advisors, Post Date: August 29, 2020
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The Cumberland Advisors Week in Review is a recap of news, commentary, and opinion from our team.

Week In Review

These are not revised assessments, and circumstances may have changed in the market from the time of original publication. We also include older commentaries that our editors have determined may be of interest to our audience. Your feedback is always welcome.

CUMBERLAND ADVISORS’ WEEKLY RECAP

As part of Cumberland Advisors’ continuous effort to maintain strong customer relationships, we offer this week’s short video discussing current market conditions and how we are positioning portfolios.

Dear Clients & Friends,

Thank you for joining Cumberland Advisors for this end-of-week update on market conditions, bonds & equities with Matt McAleer and John Mousseau, CFA.

This week:

Matt McAleer on ETFs & Equities

-I provide a chart for your perusal
-It covers the performance of major market ETFs (data through Aug 25, 2020)
-Software has had a monster week, a monster month, with names like Microsoft, Salesforce, Adobe sticking out
-These companies and their software have really driven efficiencies in our businesses and personal lives
-Marc Andreessen is an American entrepreneur, investor, and software engineer.
– In 2011, Andreessen famously penned, “Why Software Is Eating The World” where he presented a vision of the future. He stipulated that software disrupts the future and predicted more and more businesses and industries adopting software and delivering online services over the next 10 years
-Here we are in year 9 and we can see all the disruption and innovation by software
-Hardware used to be the backbone of tech, but now it’s software that’s become the lifeblood in our business environment today.
-We’ve see liquidity in the markets find a home in the growth area
-We’re seeing the bid in value sticking, giving us some breath in the market
-Formulate 5 or 10 names on a list as “buy on pullback” opportunities

John Mousseau’s Update on the Fixed Income Market

-Rising Stock Market and rising yields
-Inflation expectation rising slightly
-10yr & 30yr T-Bonds saw a rise this week, a signal that the investing community is expecting better times ahead
-Durable goods and consumer spending higher
-Disappointing so many are still out of work
-Expectations for bond yields are going up
-Next week: looking to see continued trend in bond market and we’ll be watching the unemployment number

Please reach out with any questions/comments you may have about this update; we appreciate your calls, comments, and emails. Watch this week’s video in the player above or at this link: https://youtu.be/yZ4V2pMTIAk

Stay safe, healthy, and have a great weekend.

-Matt McAleer & Cumberland Advisors

Matt enjoys your feedback. You can reach him at:
-Link to Matt’s Email: Matthew.McAleer@Cumber.com
-Link to Matt’s Twitter: https://twitter.com/MattMcAleer4
-Link to Matt’s LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/matthew-c-mcaleer/
-Call Matt: (800) 257-7013

Other questions or comments? Email us at info@cumber.com or give us a call at (800) 257-7013.

Contact Matt or any one of our advisors by following this link: https://www.cumber.com/our-people/


IN THE NEWS

Cumberland Advisors In The News

WaPo – In a bleak economy, these companies are flourishing

Quoted: David R. Kotok | Posted on: 08/15/2020 read more

Camp Kotok: Maine Woods, Economists & Wine

Quoted: David R. Kotok | Posted on: 08/08/2020 read more

Highlands News Sun – COVID-19: Florida vs. Taiwan

Quoted: David R. Kotok | Posted on: 08/08/2020 read more

Barron’s – July Jobs Report: Better Than Expected, Better Than Feared

Quoted: William Witherell, Ph.D. | Posted on: 08/07/2020 read more


Cumberland Advisors Market Commentary

Cumberland Advisors Market Commentary offers insights and analysis on upcoming, important economic issues that potentially impact global financial markets. Our team shares their thinking on global economic developments, market news and other factors that often influence investment opportunities and strategies. Our readers appreciate its timeliness, depth of analysis, and quality of research.

To read current and past commentaries, visit https://www.cumber.com/category/market-commentary/


FOMC and Revisions to Its Longer-Run Policy Strategy

Author: Robert Eisenbeis, Ph.D., Post Date: August 28, 2020

Market Commentary - Cumberland Advisors - FOMC and Revisions to Its Longer-Run Policy Strategy On the day of Chairman Powell’s opening speech for this year’s virtual annual Jackson Hole Economic Policy Symposium, hosted by the Kansas City Fed, the Federal Reserve released an update to its January 2012 “Statement on Longer-Run Goals and Monetary Policy Strategy.” This commentary describes the changes in the strategy and discusses what may be […]


Hurricanes

Author: David R. Kotok, Post Date: August 27, 2020

David R. Kotok In the Indian Ocean they are called cyclones, in the Pacific Ocean, typhoons. The latter term comes from the Chinese tai fung, which translates as “great wind.” The Kʼicheʼ Mayans called their god of wind, storm, and fire Hurakan. European colonists adopted the word, and it became hurricane. (Source: A Furious Sky: The Five-Hundred-Year History of America’s […]


Insider Trading—What Does It Tell Us?*

Author: Leo Chen, Ph.D., Post Date: August 26, 2020

Market Commentary - Cumberland Advisors - Insider Trading (Leo Chen)Insider trading often refers to acting on material nonpublic information. However, when company employees buy and sell their own stocks, it is also called insider trading, which is permitted by the SEC. We will only discuss the second type of insider trading today. As many investors have wondered, is it a fair game for outsiders […]


LIBOR vs. SOFR

Author: David R. Kotok, Post Date: August 24, 2020

Market Commentary - Cumberland Advisors - LIBOR vs. SOFR My friend Christopher Whalen has written an excellent commentary on the ongoing debate about LIBOR versus SOFR (the secured overnight funding rate). Here’s the link to his publicly available essay: https://www.theinstitutionalriskanalyst.com/post/libor-is-dead-long-live-sofr-really. We recommend Chris’s analysis as a “five-star must-read” for any investor, banker, credit officer, analyst, or student of monetary economics and policy. LIBOR still […]


Beveridge Curves

Author: David R. Kotok, Post Date: August 23, 2020

Beveridge Curves Aug 2020

We’ve prepared a series of Beveridge curve graphics so that readers can see the dramatic changes in the composition and direction of various labor-force-related measures. We are using a visual Beveridge curve approach. The charts (30 of them) are available from our website. Below is the link. https://cumber.com/pdf/Beveridge-Curves-Covid-Aug-2020.pdf The 30 charts are graphic and dramatic […]


Japan’s Economy, Stocks, and Corporate Governance

Author: William Witherell, Ph.D., Post Date: August 20, 2020
Market Commentary - Cumberland Advisors - Japan’s Economy, Stocks, and Corporate Governance

The Japanese economy, the globe’s third largest (following those of the US and China), shrank by a record 7.8% in the second quarter. This decline was less than the 9.5% fall in the US economy and the 10.1% drop in the German economy. However, it was more than double neighboring South Korea’s 3.3% drop. Taiwan’s […]


Inflation?

Author: Robert Eisenbeis, Ph.D., Post Date: August 19, 2020
Cumberland Advisors' Robert "Bob" Eisenbeis, Ph.D.

During an August 14, 2020, lecture at the Center for Financial Stability, Charles Goodhart (former member of the Bank of England’s Monetary Policy Committee and professor at the London School of Economics) mused about the US’s current economic slowdown and the prospects for inflation that might result because of the extraordinary increase in the money […]


Diverse Political Views & Markets

Author: , Post Date: August 17, 2020
Market Commentary - Cumberland Advisors - Diverse Political Views & Markets

The US presidential race may be tighter than many think. Let’s survey diverse perspectives on the race, its issues, and its market implications, starting with Nate Silver’s August 16 analysis at FiveThirtyEight. 1. Nate Silver explains his thesis, that a Trump win cannot be counted out: “While the polls have been stable so far this […]


Sunday Report: Gainesville Party Responses

Author: , Post Date: August 16, 2020
Market Commentary - Cumberland Advisors - Sunday Report Gainesville Party Responses

On July 29, I posed questions to readers in a commentary titled “US Stock Market Sectors and Gainesville, Florida,” https://www.cumber.com/cumberland-advisors-market-commentary-us-stock-market-sectors-gainesville-florida/. News had just broken about University of Florida Health anesthesiology residents and one fellow who had contracted COVID-19 infections at an off-campus party (“18 in UF Health anesthesiology contract virus after party,” https://www.gainesville.com/news/20200727/18-in-uf-health-anesthesiology-contract-virus-after-party). I asked, “Should the school […]


Zika & COVID-19: We Need Action Now!

Author: David R. Kotok, Post Date: August 14, 2020
Market Commentary - Cumberland Advisors - Zika & COVID-19- We Need Action Now

Dear Readers: This is an appeal to Democrats, Republicans, and Independents, House Members and Senators, and including those on the far right and on the far left of American politics. The nation needs you to set aside the partisan politics. Students, their teachers, businesses, investors, the retired, the unemployed, the charities, state and local governments, […]


Interest Rates and Yield Curve Control, Part 2

Author: , Post Date: August 13, 2020
Market Commentary - Cumberland Advisors - Interest Rates and Yield Curve Control, Part 2
This is part 2 in a series on interest rates and yield curve controls. Here’s the link to part 1: https://www.cumber.com/cumberland-advisors-market-commentary-interest-rates-and-yield-curve-control-part-1/ First, we want to thank BCA Research and our friend Caroline Miller, Chief Strategist at BCA, for permission to share their charts. At Cumberland, we use BCA Research. My colleague John Mousseau and I […]

A Quick Look at Job Creation

Author: Robert Eisenbeis, Ph.D., Post Date: August 11, 2020
Market Commentary - Cumberland Advisors - A Quick Look at Job Creation (Eisenbeis)

Each month, the BLS produces a wealth of data from both its household survey and its establishment survey. The latter, in particular, gives us a view of where jobs are actually being created during this terrible pandemic. Normally, the data widely cited from these surveys are seasonally adjusted, but for our purposes we will look […]


Managing Hurricane Risk in a Bond Portfolio

Author: John R. Mousseau, CFA & Patricia Healy, CFA, Post Date: August 10, 2020
Market Commentary - Cumberland Advisors - Managing Hurricane Risk in a Bond Portfolio
The Northeast continues to clean up from Hurricane Isaias, which swept up the Atlantic coast to New York and parts of New England on Thursday. Below is a slide from a presentation by our good friend Tom Doe, who heads up Municipal Market Advisors (http://www.mma-research.com). Tom’s firm does in-depth quantitative and qualitative research on the […]

Sarasota Chamber Small Business Awards

Greater Sarasota Chamber Frank G. Berlin, Sr. Small Business Awards

Cumberland Advisors was the 2019 Professional Services Business of the Year winner, and we’re happy to share and congratulate this year’s 2020 Frank G. Berlin Sr. Small Business Award winners from the Greater Sarasota Chamber.

Story at Sarasota Herald Tribune: https://www.heraldtribune.com/story/business/2020/08/28/small-businesses-feted-sarasota-chamber-commerce/5647676002/


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Cumberland Advisors Market Commentaries offer insights and analysis on upcoming, important economic issues that potentially impact global financial markets. Our team shares their thinking on global economic developments, market news and other factors that often influence investment opportunities and strategies.

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Cumberland Advisors® is registered with the SEC under the Investment Advisers Act of 1940. All information contained herein is for informational purposes only and does not constitute a solicitation or offer to sell securities or investment advisory services. Such an offer can only be made in the states where Cumberland Advisors is either registered or is a Notice Filer or where an exemption from such registration or filing is available. New accounts will not be accepted unless and until all local regulations have been satisfied. This presentation does not purport to be a complete description of our performance or investment services. Please feel free to forward our commentaries (with proper attribution) to others who may be interested. It is not our intention to state or imply in any manner that past results and profitability is an indication of future performance. All material presented is compiled from sources believed to be reliable. However, accuracy cannot be guaranteed.
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