Cumberland Advisors Week in Review (Dec 28, 2020 – Jan 01, 2021)

Author: Cumberland Advisors, Post Date: January 2, 2021
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The Cumberland Advisors Week in Review is a recap of news, commentary, and opinion from our team.Week In Review

These are not revised assessments, and circumstances may have changed in the market from the time of original publication. We also include older commentaries that our editors have determined may be of interest to our audience. Your feedback is always welcome.

CUMBERLAND ADVISORS’ WEEKLY RECAP

As part of Cumberland Advisors’ continuous effort to maintain strong customer relationships, we offer this week’s short video discussing current market conditions and how we are positioning portfolios.

John Mousseau & Fixed Income / Munis
-Bond Market- basically unchanged since Christmas Eve. 10yr bond at .92% & 30yr bond at 1.65%
-Muni Bond yields running about 75-80% of those numbers
-We’re keeping an eye on the Georgia election. Will the Republicans hold the Senate? John gives his take on what may happen under neutral or Republican/Democrat control.
-Initial jobless claims came in a little lower than expected. That’s a good thing.
-We thank the Federal Reserve and Treasury for coming to rescue of markets by acting as a backstop
-We wish you all a happy and healthy new year

Matt McAleer & Equities / ETFs
-17+ in total return this year – a big surprise
-Liquidity and the Fed’s backing of debt was key
-Headlines shook people out of the market
-But what’s important? Not the headlines, but how the markets react to the headlines.
-2021 will have twists and turns that we don’t have in our playbook today, just like every new year
-Could a bump in vaccine delivery roil markets?
-Have a great Christmas, Happy Holidays, let’s get 2021 off to a great start.
-I have a chart to share with you to put 2020 into perspective and share my take along with market events
-Year to year, different asset classes will lead
-Always be respectful of risk and reward
-We want as much reward for each dollar of invested capital with the least amount of risk
-For the future, we’ll stay flexible, continue to measure risk/reward, and put capital to work where the ratio delivers the best bang for the buck
-Have a great news years weekend, see you next year!

Video Chart

Please reach out with any questions/comments you may have about this update; we appreciate your calls, comments, and emails. Watch in the player above or at this link:  https://youtu.be/aXz1hg_6iJw

 

-Matt McAleer & Cumberland Advisors

Send your feedback from today’s email/video to Matt. You can reach him at:
-Link to Matt’s Email: Matthew.McAleer@Cumber.com
-Link to Matt’s Twitter: https://twitter.com/MattMcAleer4
-Link to Matt’s LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/matthew-c-mcaleer/
-Call Matt: (800) 257-7013Other questions or comments? Email us at info@cumber.com or give us a call at (800) 257-7013.

Contact Matt or any one of our advisors by following this link: https://www.cumber.com/our-people/


In the news… The stock market is ending 2020 at record highs, even as the virus surges and millions go hungry

By Hamza Shaban and Heather Long – Dec. 31, 2020

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The U.S. stock market ended 2020 at all-time highs, enriching the wealthy and capping off a soaring comeback despite a deadly pandemic that has killed more than 340,000 Americans and left millions jobless and hungry.

As the extent of the coronavirus became clear in March, investors sent stocks tumbling 34 percent, a bear market. But it turned out to be the shortest downturn in U.S. history. Since the U.S. stock market bottomed on March 23, the S&P 500 has risen 68 percent, shattering all-time records along the way. The rebound reflects Wall Street’s optimism about 2021, but it also underscores the disconnect between the stock market’s wild success and struggling American households.

“The markets are dominated by the folks who are in the upper echelons. They don’t feel any pain. They read about it, but they don’t experience it,” said David Kotok, founder of Cumberland Advisors. “What they do experience is the flip side: We have had very substantial productivity gains with Zoom and other daily life efficiencies.”

Read the full story at WaPo’s site: https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/2020/12/31/stock-market-record-2020/


Cumberland Advisors Market Commentary

Cumberland Advisors Market Commentary offers insights and analysis on upcoming, important economic issues that potentially impact global financial markets. Our team shares their thinking on global economic developments, market news and other factors that often influence investment opportunities and strategies. Our readers appreciate its timeliness, depth of analysis, and quality of research.

Read current and past commentaries here: https://www.cumber.com/category/market-commentary/


Politics: Aaarrgh!

Author: David R. Kotok, Post Date: December 30, 2020

Market Commentary - Cumberland Advisors - Politics Aaarrgh!

About 20 million people in America were at sharply increased financial risk if Trump hadn’t signed the new stimulus bill. I asked Mike Englund of Action Economics for a breakdown. Here’s what he sent. “This is taken straight from the initial claims report from the DOL: Unemployment Insurance Benefits in All Programs Week ending December […]


Taxable Total Return 4th Quarter Review

Author: Daniel Himelberger, Post Date: December 29, 2020

Cumberland Advisors - Dan Himelberger - Portfolio Manager & Fixed Income Analyst

The buildup to and launch of a COVID-19 vaccine during the fourth quarter of 2020 led to record highs being set in the stock market and a steeper Treasury yield curve. The news of the vaccine also benefits spreads on investment-grade corporates and taxable municipals. These spreads continue to grind lower from their highs earlier […]


The Long Strange Trip of the Muni Market in 2020

Author: John R. Mousseau, CFA, Post Date: December 28, 2020

CA-Market-Commentary - The Long Strange Trip of the Muni Market in 2020 - Mousseau

Sometimes the light’s all shinin’ on me Other times I can barely see Lately it occurs to me What a long strange trip it’s been “Truckin,” by the Grateful Dead (Lyrics by Robert Hunter)   Those great lines from a great song sum up the 2020 investment year in general and particularly in munis, as […]


Ave Maria & More

Author: David R. Kotok, Post Date: December 27, 2020

Market-Commentary-Cumberland-Advisors-David-Sunday-Ave-Maria-&-More

We hope that you’ve made the most of your holidays during this extraordinary year and have found safe ways to connect with family and friends. On this Sunday poised just before the new year, we would like to wish you and yours a better and brighter 2021. We are hopeful although, we know that we […]


International Equities at Year-end 2020 & the Promise Ahead

Author: Bill Witherell, Ph.D., Post Date: December 23, 2020

Market Commentary - Cumberland Advisors - International Equities at Year-end 2020 and the Promise Ahead by William Witherell, Ph.D.

During March and April of this year, the global economy and equity markets were hit with a severe shock from the COVID-19 pandemic and the widespread lockdown measures governments imposed in response. In May and June, the spread of infection lessened in many economies, lockdowns were largely ended, and restrictions eased. Equity markets started a […]


CIO Overview – 2021 Market & Macro Outlook

Author: David R. Kotok, Post Date: December 21, 2020

“Now what?” we are asked after a 2020 that saw a full-year market whipsaw round trip, coupled with a COVID-induced economic deep dive in the spring. The V-shaped recovery that followed is starting to falter. Let’s take a look in this 2021 market & macro outlook. Jim Bianco has given us permission to use a […]


Florida-COVID Update

Author: David R. Kotok, Post Date: December 20, 2020
Market-Commentary-Cumberland-Advisors-David-Sunday-Florida-COVID-Update
As much as you may know about airborne transmission of COVID-19, something new may be learned from this video. How risky is it, for instance, to stand in line behind someone who is wearing a loosely fitted mask? Find out. See “Military-grade camera shows risks of airborne coronavirus spread,” https://www.washingtonpost.com/investigations/2020/12/11/coronavirus-airborne-video-infrared-spread/ We thank all the readers […]

The December FOMC

Author: Robert Eisenbeis, Ph.D., Post Date: December 18, 2020

Federal Reserve - FOMC

Prior to the Fed’s December FOMC meeting there was a general consensus among economists (see the December NABE forecast, for example) that the Committee would not change its federal funds rate target. But the media was filled with speculation that the FOMC would possibly increase its asset purchase program or begin to purchase longer-maturity Treasuries. […]


Fed: Data-driven?

Author: David R. Kotok, Post Date: December 17, 2020

CA-David-Kotok-Portrait-With-Title-Blue-2020

In a Bloomberg column by John Authors, published on December 16 (“Fed’s Last Christmas Before Biden Is All About WAM,”), his chart shows Core PCE has emerged as the most important inflation measure, as it is likely to have a stronger influence on the Fed’s policy decisions than other inflation measures. Continued[…]


Drones

Author: David R. Kotok, Post Date: December 15, 2020

Market Commentary - Cumberland Advisors - Drones

Steve K. got us thinking about drones when he sent an email with three videos, one riveting, one marvelous, and one “downright scary,” all of them about drones. We decided to explore further. We note that we are overweight aerospace and defense in our US ETF portfolios. As you will see, drones are an increasingly […]


In the news… Munis flat as traders look ahead to next year’s supply slate

By Chip Barnett – December 29, 2020

CA-In-The-News-John-R-Mousseau-BondBuyer-20201229

Municipal bonds were little changed Tuesday as the market took stock of 2020 and looked ahead to what 2021 might have in store. Yields on top-rated munis were flat across AAA scales.

As the year comes to a close, the municipal bond market is essentially “cured from a functionality standpoint,” according to John Mousseau, president and chief executive officer of Cumberland Advisors.

“Muni yields across the board are significantly lower than they were at the start of the year, and in the short end they are MUCH LOWER,” he wrote in a Tuesday market commentary. “Compared to the end of March, when the muni market had righted itself, overall yields are also much lower, particularly in the shorter end of the yield curve, reflecting the lowering of short-term interest rates by the Fed in March and the return of liquidity to the market in general and the short-term market in particular.”

“Yes, there have been some downgrades, and there will be more. But the most salient feature of high-grade municipal bonds has shone through in 2020, and that is the fact that municipal issuers enjoy a monopoly on taxing power and the provision of essential services,”Mousseau said. “And as we have seen in this past year, the larger infrastructure-type issuers enjoy broad institutional support from both the investing public and Congress. And just as important, even issuers with structural problems, such as New Jersey and Illinois, still have broad municipal market access, albeit at higher yields than the market.”

But he noted that municipalities across the country still needed some help.

Continue reading the full story at The Bond Buyer’s site: https://www.bondbuyer.com/news/munis-flat-as-traders-look-ahead-to-next-years-healthy-supply-slate


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Cumberland Advisors Market Commentaries offer insights and analysis on upcoming, important economic issues that potentially impact global financial markets. Our team shares their thinking on global economic developments, market news and other factors that often influence investment opportunities and strategies.

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