Cumberland Advisors Week in Review (Jan 04, 2021 – Jan 08, 2021)

The Cumberland Advisors Week in Review is a recap of news, commentary, and opinion from our team.Week In Review

These are not revised assessments, and circumstances may have changed in the market from the time of original publication. We also include older commentaries that our editors have determined may be of interest to our audience. Your feedback is always welcome.

CUMBERLAND ADVISORS’ WEEKLY RECAP

As part of Cumberland Advisors’ continuous effort to maintain strong customer relationships, we offer this week’s short video discussing current market conditions and how we are positioning portfolios.


Matt McAleer & Equities / ETFs
-Strong week across the board
-Nice bid internationally
-Emerging and developed markets doubled the S&P & Qs here
-Market ignored politics from a price standpoint this week
-Extreme politics can undermine confidence in markets. We’re not seeing that yet.
-Let’s keep our eyes on interest rates
-The rise in interest rates this week changing some risk/reward dynamics

John Mousseau & Fixed Income / Munis
-Georgia Senators now Democrat
-What did turmoil this week mean to the bond market?
-Blue wave underlining an expectation of spending/stimulus
-10yr bond yield up 18 ticks, 30yr nond yield up 23 ticks
-Yield Curve has become steeper
-Inflation expectations are picking up. Expectations in the bond markets is just as important as outright inflation itself.
-Muni Bond yields? Not much of an uptick. They continue to be in demand with expectations of tax rates going up in the future.
-Muni Bond supply expected to increase, maybe a flood of supply this late winter, early spring.
-We’re fairly defensively positioned right now and we’re looking to take advantage of an increase new issuance.
-Municipal Credit looks good going forward and an expectation of an infrastructure program under a Biden government
-We’re watching the CPI closely
-Have a good weekend after this tumultuous week
-I’d appreciate it if you’d read my commentary if you haven’t already, The Blue Wave and the Bond Markets, which you can find here:
https://www.cumber.com/cumberland-advisors-market-commentary-the-blue-wave-and-the-bond-markets/

The Blue Wave and the Bond Markets

Please reach out with any questions/comments you may have about this update; we appreciate your calls, comments, and emails. Watch in the player above or at this link: https://youtu.be/k9s-2nEh8Cs

-Matt McAleer & Cumberland Advisors

Send your feedback from today’s email/video to Matt. You can reach him at:
-Link to Matt’s Email: Matthew.McAleer@Cumber.com
-Link to Matt’s Twitter: https://twitter.com/MattMcAleer4
-Link to Matt’s LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/matthew-c-mcaleer/
-Call Matt: (800) 257-7013Other questions or comments? Email us at info@cumber.com or give us a call at (800) 257-7013.

Contact Matt or any one of our advisors by following this link: https://www.cumber.com/our-people/


In the News…

 

Recovery hopes help markets start with a pop

Quoted: David R. Kotok | Posted on: 01/07/2021 read more

Muni market unperturbed amid mob violence in U.S. Capitol

Quoted: John R. Mousseau | Posted on: 01/06/2021 read more

David Kotok on the Markets (Bloomberg Radio)

Quoted: David R. Kotok | Posted on: 01/05/2021 read more

Munis flat as traders look ahead to next year’s supply slate

Quoted: John R. Mousseau, CFA | Posted on: 01/01/2021 read more


A message from David R. Kotok

Frontline Nurses: The USF Program & Why To Do It

Now, there’s a new USF (University of South Florida) program for nurses, “Frontline Nursing During COVID-19: A New Paradigm,” is coming online. It includes four webinars and focuses on helping nurses, who dedicate their careers to caring for others, to take care of themselves in the midst of and beyond the crisis.

The program is free for any nurse anywhere in the world and especially in the United States. It was developed by the USF College of Nursing. It will give nurses continuing education credits, and it will do so at zero cost to the nurses who sign up.

Here’s the program link and the details: https://health.usf.edu/nursing/frontline-nursing

Frontline Nurses USF Program

Please share the link and spread the word about this program. We want to protect our nurses. We want them alive and healthy. The ancient words apply: “If you save a single life, it is as if you have saved the entire world.” Join me, and let’s try to save nurses’ lives and patients’ lives, too.


Cumberland Advisors Market Commentary

Cumberland Advisors Market Commentary offers insights and analysis on upcoming, important economic issues that potentially impact global financial markets. Our team shares their thinking on global economic developments, market news and other factors that often influence investment opportunities and strategies. Our readers appreciate its timeliness, depth of analysis, and quality of research.

Read current and past commentaries here: https://www.cumber.com/category/market-commentary/


The Blue Wave and the Bond Markets

Author: John R. Mousseau, CFA, Post Date: January 8, 2021

CA-John-R-Mousseau-The Blue Wave and the Bond Markets

The Democrat Party won both Senate seats in Georgia on Tuesday, January 5th. Our own math had a split decision, with each party capturing a Senate seat; but with the sweep the Democrats will now control the White House, the House of Representatives, and the Senate, where a 50-50 split will now be broken by […]


Census Update

Author: David R. Kotok, Post Date: January 7, 2021

CA-David-Kotok-Portrait-With-Title-Blue-2020

According to the Brookings Institution, “Newly released Census Bureau population estimates through mid-year 2020 reveal record lows in U.S. population growth, both annually and for the 2010-to-2020 decade…. “The new estimates indicate that over the period from July 1, 2019 to July 1, 2020, the nation grew by just 0.35%. This is the lowest annual […]


Breakeven Inflation

Author: Robert Eisenbeis, Ph.D., Post Date: January 6, 2021

Cumberland Advisors' Robert "Bob" Eisenbeis, Ph.D.

In a recent review of fixed-income security returns, Cumberland Chairman, David Kotok, raised a question concerning what looked to him to be an anomaly with respect to the spread between the 5-year and 10-year breakeven inflation rates on US Treasures, which had narrowed to only 5 basis points. Both market-based measures of inflation expectations, calculated […]


Attack on the Fed, Market Reaction: A One-Day Saga

Author: David R. Kotok, Post Date: January 5, 2021

CA-David-Kotok-Portrait-With-Title-Blue-2020

Dear readers, we narrowly avoided a catastrophe. I use that word because an action by Congress to eliminate or neuter the power of the central bank to intervene as lender of last resort in a crisis is exactly the way to create a catastrophe. The 1929–1933 period of American history is evidence of how a […]


Politics: Aaarrgh!

Author: David R. Kotok, Post Date: December 30, 2020

Market Commentary - Cumberland Advisors - Politics Aaarrgh!

About 20 million people in America were at sharply increased financial risk if Trump hadn’t signed the new stimulus bill. I asked Mike Englund of Action Economics for a breakdown. Here’s what he sent. “This is taken straight from the initial claims report from the DOL: Unemployment Insurance Benefits in All Programs Week ending December […]


Taxable Total Return 4th Quarter Review

Author: Daniel Himelberger, Post Date: December 29, 2020

Cumberland Advisors - Dan Himelberger - Portfolio Manager & Fixed Income Analyst

The buildup to and launch of a COVID-19 vaccine during the fourth quarter of 2020 led to record highs being set in the stock market and a steeper Treasury yield curve. The news of the vaccine also benefits spreads on investment-grade corporates and taxable municipals. These spreads continue to grind lower from their highs earlier […]


The Long Strange Trip of the Muni Market in 2020

Author: John R. Mousseau, CFA, Post Date: December 28, 2020

CA-Market-Commentary - The Long Strange Trip of the Muni Market in 2020 - Mousseau

Sometimes the light’s all shinin’ on me Other times I can barely see Lately it occurs to me What a long strange trip it’s been “Truckin,” by the Grateful Dead (Lyrics by Robert Hunter)   Those great lines from a great song sum up the 2020 investment year in general and particularly in munis, as […]


Ave Maria & More

Author: David R. Kotok, Post Date: December 27, 2020

Market-Commentary-Cumberland-Advisors-David-Sunday-Ave-Maria-&-More

We hope that you’ve made the most of your holidays during this extraordinary year and have found safe ways to connect with family and friends. On this Sunday poised just before the new year, we would like to wish you and yours a better and brighter 2021. We are hopeful although, we know that we […]


International Equities at Year-end 2020 & the Promise Ahead

Author: Bill Witherell, Ph.D., Post Date: December 23, 2020

Market Commentary - Cumberland Advisors - International Equities at Year-end 2020 and the Promise Ahead by William Witherell, Ph.D.

During March and April of this year, the global economy and equity markets were hit with a severe shock from the COVID-19 pandemic and the widespread lockdown measures governments imposed in response. In May and June, the spread of infection lessened in many economies, lockdowns were largely ended, and restrictions eased. Equity markets started a […]


CIO Overview – 2021 Market & Macro Outlook

Author: David R. Kotok, Post Date: December 21, 2020

“Now what?” we are asked after a 2020 that saw a full-year market whipsaw round trip, coupled with a COVID-induced economic deep dive in the spring. The V-shaped recovery that followed is starting to falter. Let’s take a look in this 2021 market & macro outlook. Jim Bianco has given us permission to use a […]


Cumberland Advisors is an Annual Supporter of

the Global Interdependence Center

GIC Event

The Global Interdependence Center is delighted to partner with Yeshiva University for their first Executive Briefing of 2021. Join them on January 14 at 4PM (ET) for their Macroeconomic Outlook.

There is no cost to register: https://register.gotowebinar.com/register/4721950953747038992


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Cumberland Advisors Market Commentaries offer insights and analysis on upcoming, important economic issues that potentially impact global financial markets. Our team shares their thinking on global economic developments, market news and other factors that often influence investment opportunities and strategies.