Cumberland Advisors Week in Review (Jan 11, 2021 – Jan 15, 2021)

Author: Cumberland Advisors, Post Date: January 16, 2021
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The Cumberland Advisors Week in Review is a recap of news, commentary, and opinion from our team.

These are not revised assessments, and circumstances may have changed in the market from the time of original publication. We also include older commentaries that our editors have determined may be of interest to our audience. Your feedback is always welcome.

CUMBERLAND ADVISORS’ WEEKLY RECAP

As part of Cumberland Advisors’ continuous effort to maintain strong customer relationships, we offer this week’s short video discussing current market conditions and how we are positioning portfolios.


Matt McAleer & Equities / ETFs
-We’re seeing a little pullback this week, Matt explains.
-Sectors? Strategies? Matt details.
-Good performance news by some names in banks last night. Today, we’re seeing a selloff on the news, nothing unexpected.
-We look to buy on pullbacks.
-Alternative Energy? Solar, Wind, Water has performed well for us since David Kotok directed trades here.
-Energy? Best performing sector this week.
-Yield can be a big dictator of money flows. This might be what’s happening in Energy.
-Monday is MLK Day and Cumberland Advisors will be closed. Observed each year on the third Monday in January as “a day on, not a day off,” the Martin Luther King Jr. holiday is the only federal holiday designated as a “national day of service” to encourage all Americans to volunteer to improve their communities. Learn more at the AmeriCorps website: https://americorps.gov/newsroom/events/mlk-dayJohn Mousseau & Fixed Income / Munis
-Quiet week in bond market
-10yr and 30yr bond down a little this week, we think due to jobless claims being higher than expected
-Biden announced this week a future stimulus package (almost two trillion) that will benefit municipalities, a feature that has been missing until now. The final package is expected to be smaller than announced but still substantial.
-Inflation? Pretty well behaved. As we move toward summer, numbers will move higher along with expectations.
-We have a new look at Cumberland! A new logo has been adopted for the future, something we don’t do very often.
-There have only been a few logo changes since David R. Kotok co-founded the firm in 1973, so we’re excited to share this with you.
Cumberland Advisors

Please reach out with any questions/comments you may have about this update; we appreciate your calls, comments, and emails. Watch in the player above or at this link: https://youtu.be/kmRrK0smsTI

-Matt McAleer & Cumberland Advisors

Send your feedback from today’s email/video to Matt. You can reach him at:
-Link to Matt’s Email: Matthew.McAleer@Cumber.com
-Link to Matt’s Twitter: https://twitter.com/MattMcAleer4
-Link to Matt’s LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/matthew-c-mcaleer/
-Call Matt: (800) 257-7013Other questions or comments? Email us at info@cumber.com or give us a call at (800) 257-7013.

Contact Matt or any one of our advisors by following this link: https://www.cumber.com/our-people/


In the News…

 

Recovery hopes help markets start with a pop

Quoted: David R. Kotok | Posted on: 01/07/2021 read more

Muni market unperturbed amid mob violence in U.S. Capitol

Quoted: John R. Mousseau | Posted on: 01/06/2021 read more

David Kotok on the Markets (Bloomberg Radio)

Quoted: David R. Kotok | Posted on: 01/05/2021 read more

Munis flat as traders look ahead to next year’s supply slate

Quoted: John R. Mousseau, CFA | Posted on: 01/01/2021 read more


A message from David R. Kotok

Frontline Nurses: The USF Program & Why To Do It

Now, there’s a new USF (University of South Florida) program for nurses, “Frontline Nursing During COVID-19: A New Paradigm,” is coming online. It includes four webinars and focuses on helping nurses, who dedicate their careers to caring for others, to take care of themselves in the midst of and beyond the crisis.

The program is free for any nurse anywhere in the world and especially in the United States. It was developed by the USF College of Nursing. It will give nurses continuing education credits, and it will do so at zero cost to the nurses who sign up.

Here’s the program link and the details: https://health.usf.edu/nursing/frontline-nursing

Frontline Nurses USF Program

Please share the link and spread the word about this program. We want to protect our nurses. We want them alive and healthy. The ancient words apply: “If you save a single life, it is as if you have saved the entire world.” Join me, and let’s try to save nurses’ lives and patients’ lives, too.


Cumberland Advisors Market Commentary

Cumberland Advisors Market Commentary offers insights and analysis on upcoming, important economic issues that potentially impact global financial markets. Our team shares their thinking on global economic developments, market news and other factors that often influence investment opportunities and strategies. Our readers appreciate its timeliness, depth of analysis, and quality of research.

Read current and past commentaries here: https://www.cumber.com/category/market-commentary/


 JOLTS and a Sobering View of Labor Market Conditions

Author: Robert Eisenbeis, Ph.D., Post Date: January 15, 2021

Robert Eisenbeis Although the news is somewhat stale, the January 12 release of the BLS’s Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) for November provides some additional information about the underlying dynamics of the labor market as we approached the December virus surge. The picture we see reflects some calming in the labor market after a huge […]


South Africa Facing a Resurgence of the Virus

Author: William Witherell, Ph.D., Post Date: January 14, 2021

Cumberland Advisors Market Commentary by William "Bill" Witherell, Ph.D. In recent weeks, a new and more contagious variant of COVID-19 has been surging in South Africa, with per capita new infections and deaths approaching the globally leading rates being experienced in the UK and the USA. While on December 26 the seven-day rolling average of new South African cases per 100,000 people was 19.86, […]


Markets and Another Impeachment

Author: David R. Kotok, Post Date: January 13, 2021

CA-David-Kotok-Bio-2021 The response of the markets to a potential second impeachment of President Trump is impossible to predict now. History shows why this may not be a market moving event. The new Senate under Schumer will decide what to do with Speaker Pelosi’s new articles of impeachment. How and when is not clear. In the meantime […]


Jobs, As the New Year Begins

Author: Robert Eisenbeis, Ph.D., Post Date: January 12, 2021

Robert Eisenbeis The jobs numbers released this week provide a sobering view of the pace of the recovery and provide clear evidence as to what we can expect from the FOMC. The Committee’s new strategy focuses on ensuring maximum employment, with policy designed to minimize downside deviations from that what the Committee views as full employment. The […]


Q4 Quarterly Credit Commentary – Municipal Credit 2020 and Beyond

Author: Patricia Healy, CFA, Post Date: January 11, 2021

Patricia Healy In the depths of the muni market plunge back in March, many feared that the sky had fallen and that municipalities would not be able to manage their services and debt repayment. The initial fall in prices was due to a collapse of liquidity, when muni money market funds had no one to sell to […]


Mourning

Author: David R. Kotok, Post Date: January 10, 2021

Mourning When we mourn for a person, that is a certain kind of experience. Lose an aged parent and you feel the loss. But that loss is also a part of a repeating life cycle. Lose a pet? Not the same, but there is a sense of loss of a different type. But lose an idea? […]


Author: John R. Mousseau, CFA, Post Date: January 8, 2021

CA-John-R-Mousseau-The Blue Wave and the Bond Markets

The Democrat Party won both Senate seats in Georgia on Tuesday, January 5th. Our own math had a split decision, with each party capturing a Senate seat; but with the sweep the Democrats will now control the White House, the House of Representatives, and the Senate, where a 50-50 split will now be broken by […]


Census Update

Author: David R. Kotok, Post Date: January 7, 2021

CA-David-Kotok-Portrait-With-Title-Blue-2020

According to the Brookings Institution, “Newly released Census Bureau population estimates through mid-year 2020 reveal record lows in U.S. population growth, both annually and for the 2010-to-2020 decade…. “The new estimates indicate that over the period from July 1, 2019 to July 1, 2020, the nation grew by just 0.35%. This is the lowest annual […]


Breakeven Inflation

Author: Robert Eisenbeis, Ph.D., Post Date: January 6, 2021

Robert Eisenbeis

In a recent review of fixed-income security returns, Cumberland Chairman, David Kotok, raised a question concerning what looked to him to be an anomaly with respect to the spread between the 5-year and 10-year breakeven inflation rates on US Treasures, which had narrowed to only 5 basis points. Both market-based measures of inflation expectations, calculated […]


Attack on the Fed, Market Reaction: A One-Day Saga

Author: David R. Kotok, Post Date: January 5, 2021

CA-David-Kotok-Portrait-With-Title-Blue-2020

Dear readers, we narrowly avoided a catastrophe. I use that word because an action by Congress to eliminate or neuter the power of the central bank to intervene as lender of last resort in a crisis is exactly the way to create a catastrophe. The 1929–1933 period of American history is evidence of how a […]


A message from David R. Kotok

Frontline Nurses: The USF Program & Why To Do It

Now, there’s a new USF (University of South Florida) program for nurses, “Frontline Nursing During COVID-19: A New Paradigm,” is coming online. It includes four webinars and focuses on helping nurses, who dedicate their careers to caring for others, to take care of themselves in the midst of and beyond the crisis.

The program is free for any nurse anywhere in the world and especially in the United States. It was developed by the USF College of Nursing. It will give nurses continuing education credits, and it will do so at zero cost to the nurses who sign up.

Here’s the program link and the details: https://health.usf.edu/nursing/frontline-nursing

Frontline Nurses USF Program

Please share the link and spread the word about this program. We want to protect our nurses. We want them alive and healthy. The ancient words apply: “If you save a single life, it is as if you have saved the entire world.” Join me, and let’s try to save nurses’ lives and patients’ lives, too.


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Cumberland Advisors Market Commentaries offer insights and analysis on upcoming, important economic issues that potentially impact global financial markets. Our team shares their thinking on global economic developments, market news and other factors that often influence investment opportunities and strategies.

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