Cumberland Advisors Week in Review (Jun 01, 2020 – Jun 05, 2020)

Author: Cumberland Advisors, Post Date: June 6, 2020
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The Cumberland Advisors Week in Review is a recap of news, commentary, and opinion from our team.

Week In Review

These are not revised assessments, and circumstances may have changed in the market from the time of original publication. We also include older commentaries that our editors have determined may be of interest to our audience. Your feedback is always welcome.

CUMBERLAND ADVISORS’ WEEKLY RECAP

As part of Cumberland Advisors’ continuous effort to maintain strong customer relationships, we offer this week’s short video discussing current market conditions and how we are positioning portfolios.

Dear Clients & Friends,

Thank you for joining Cumberland Advisors for this end-of-week update on market conditions, bonds & equities with me, Matt McAleer, and Patricia Healy, CFA.

This week Matt & Patty cover…

Matt McAleer on Markets
-Headlines! Headlines! Headlines! All important? No!
-Equities: we’re seeing a change in allocations
-We have some new charts to share with you
-We’ll examine small & mid caps, relative strength, & what to watch
-1st chart – Year to Date
-2nd chart – 30 Day
-Anything away from large cap growth has been a weight on your net return. This is starting to change.
-We’re going to watch banks, industrials, energy and their spread

Patricia Healy’s Update on the Fixed Income Market
-What’s ahead
-The Municipal Calendar
-Munis and Corporate Bonds contrasted (debt, yields, and more)
-Jobless claims and Employment – Patty dives in with some detail
-Federal Stimulus – 3 Trillion on the horizon, 1 Trillion for state/local expenses (not loss in revenue)

Thanks for joining us again this week. Please reach out with any questions/comments you may have about this update; we appreciate your calls, comments, and emails. Watch in the player above or at this link: https://youtu.be/BIwaeCljzNQ

Stay safe, healthy, and have a great weekend.

-Matt McAleer

Matt enjoys your feedback. You can reach him at:
-Link to Matt’s Email: Matthew.McAleer@Cumber.com
-Link to Matt’s Twitter: https://twitter.com/MattMcAleer4
-Link to Matt’s LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/matthew-c-mcaleer/
-Call Matt: (800) 257-7013

Other questions or comments? Email us at info@cumber.com or give us a call at (800) 257-7013.

Contact Matt or any one of our advisors by following this link: https://www.cumber.com/our-people/


Cumberland Advisors Market Commentary

Cumberland Advisors Market Commentary offers insights and analysis on upcoming, important economic issues that potentially impact global financial markets. Our team shares their thinking on global economic developments, market news and other factors that often influence investment opportunities and strategies. Our readers appreciate its timeliness, depth of analysis, and quality of research.

To read current and past commentaries, visit https://www.cumber.com/category/market-commentary/


Liquidity Impact on the Stock Market

Author: Leo Chen, Ph.D., Post Date: June 5, 2020

Market Commentary - Cumberland Advisors - Liquidity Impact on the Stock Market

All three major indices have continued their rallies in June: The S&P 500 is up 2.23%, the Dow Jones Industrial Average is up 3.54%, and the Nasdaq composite is up 1.33%. The S&P 500 has marked a 42% return since the March 23rd low for the large-cap index, while the Nasdaq Composite is only 2.26% [Continued…]

Mexico’s Twin Crises: The Pandemic and a Plunging Economy

Author: William Witherell, Ph.D., Post Date: June 4, 2020

Market Commentary - Cumberland Advisors - Mexico's Twin Crises The Pandemic and a Plunging Economy

South of the border, our neighbor and the second largest economy in Latin America, Mexico, is experiencing a severe and still worsening health crisis due to the COVID-19 pandemic. The dire effects of the illness itself are compounded by a brutal decline in the economy, which at the start of 2020 had already been in [Continued…]

Inflation, Deflation, and Capacity Utilization – Part 2

Author: Robert Eisenbeis, Ph.D., Post Date: June 3, 2020

Market Commentary - Cumberland Advisors - Inflation, Deflation, and Capacity Utilization – Part 2

Bloomberg’s Lisa Abramowicz recently tweeted, “When you measure the prices of things Americans are spending money on right now, ‘it turns out that the actual inflation rate is not as low’ as the data suggest” (https://twitter.com/lisaabramowicz1/status/1263868020516151298). Her evidence was a chart showing how spending for food at home had jumped while spending on food away [Continued…]

Two Covers; Two Sectors

Author: David R. Kotok, Post Date: June 2, 2020

Market Commentary - Cumberland Advisors - Two Covers Two Sectors

If you looked at the two different covers of The Economist for May 30, 2020, you saw the 100,000-death message on the American version, and you saw the Hong Kong security law depiction on the Asian edition. Internal content was mostly the same, but the lead stories reflected the world as the Economist editors saw it and wanted to [Continued…]

S&P 500 After COVID-19

Author: Leo Chen, Ph.D., Post Date: June 1, 2020

Market Commentary - Cumberland Advisors - S&P 500 After COVID-19

The S&P 500 Index is widely used as the benchmark for over $9.9 trillion in investments. After losing 35.4% in just a month, the index has rebounded 36.5% from its March 23rd bottom. These extraordinary numbers during extraordinary times are unlikely to continue after COVID-19’s impacts on the market subside. So what can we expect [Continued…]

COVID-19 Impacts & Philanthropic Opportunities: GGA Interview with Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic

Author: David R. Kotok, Post Date: May 31, 2020

Interview between Lydia Clements & Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic

Good Sunday Morning, and please take some time for a walk with your earbuds. We have for you a video call between Lydia Clements, director of the Georgia Grantmakers Alliance, and Raphael Bostic, president and chief executive officer of the Atlanta Fed: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EWIj8iNV6QU. At the SECF website the Georgia Grantmakers Alliance (GGA) is described as [Continued…]

 

Hydroxychloroquine

Author: David R. Kotok , Post Date: May 29, 2020

Market Commentary - Cumberland Advisors - The Debate Over Hydroxychloroquine

The Debate Over Hydroxychloroquine President Trump’s surprise announcement on Monday, May 18, that he is taking hydroxychloroquine as a preventative against COVID-19 prompted Fox News host Neil Cavuto to quickly warn, “If you are in a risky population here, and you are taking this as a preventative treatment to ward off the virus or in [Continued…]

Money, Taxes, Fed & COVID-19

Author: David R. Kotok, Post Date: May 26, 2020

Market Commentary - Cumberland Advisors - Money, Taxes, Fed & COVID-19

At the following link readers may download a PDF file of the May 15th Joint Committee on Taxation analysis of federal receipts attributable to the latest stimulus bill passed by the House: https://www.jct.gov/publications.html?func=startdown&id=5260. The pressure for the Senate to act is growing daily and will only intensify. We expect something to come in the way of [Continued…]

Memorial Day

Author: David R. Kotok, Post Date: May 24, 2020

Memorial Day

“Originally, Memorial Day was known as Decoration Day, meant to honor the Union and the Confederate soldiers who died during the American Civil War. By the 1900s it had become a day to celebrate all American soldiers who died while serving in the military. It wasn’t until 1967 that it was legally named Memorial Day.” (Source: https://www.softschools.com/facts/holidays/memorial_day_facts/158/) When I served in [Continued…]

Inflation and Capacity Utilization

Author: Robert Eisenbeis, Ph.D. & David R. Kotok, Post Date: May 22, 2020

Cumberland Advisors' Robert "Bob" Eisenbeis, Ph.D.

At Cumberland, we continuously have internal strategy discussions. We decided to make one such discussion, on the subject of inflation and US capacity utilization, available in the form of a commentary to clients, consultants, and all readers. Below you’ll find a summation of our discussion, written by Bob Eisenbeis, Cumberland Advisors Chief Monetary Economist. -David [Continued…]

COVID-19, stock market, some Senators’ behavior

Author: David R. Kotok, Post Date: May 21, 2020

David R. Kotok

It’s no wonder that citizens, voters and disaffected non-voters, investors and market agents, as well as others who observe the United States, have a low opinion of the Congress. Behavior of one reflects on all. Nothing new there. But the virus crisis has taken regard for Congress to a new low level as the country [Continued…]

Cry for Brazil, and also for Latin America

Author: William Witherell, Ph.D., Post Date: May 20, 2020

Market Commentary - Cumberland Advisors - Cry for Brazil, and also for Latin America by William Witherell, Ph.D

The coronavirus is tearing through Brazil, a country ill-equipped to fight the pandemic. It’s hard-right populist leader, Jair Bolsonaro, has dismissed the virus as a “little flu.” COVID-19 is spreading through the population of 210 million, savaging both the inhabitants of the indigenous villages of the Amazon and the 13 million people packed together in [Continued…]


Bloomberg Daybreak Australia: David Kotok Discusses Dislocation in Markets/Economy

May 27, 2020 – Running time 48:27 – David joins at the 8:20 mark

David Kotok, Chairman & Chief Investment Officer at Cumberland Advisors, discusses markets, market dislocation, the economy, coronavirus, growth rates, liquidity, the bargain he sees in municipal bonds, and more. Hosted by Haidi Stroud-Watts.

Bloomberg Daybreak Australia with David R. Kotok (05-27-2020)

Watch here: https://www.bloomberg.com/news/videos/2020-05-27/-bloomberg-daybreak-australia-full-show-05-27-2020-video


The economy is reopening in all 50 states and there is a patchwork of regulations and guidelines on how to do it safely. What about masks? Anecdotally, we still see a lot of folks not wearing them in public. What do we know?

About Masks – (Plus a personal note)

David Kotok - About MasksStraight Talk on Masks from Anthony Fauci In a widely shared YouTube interview with Lilly Singh, Anthony Fauci, head of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases (NIAID) and a member of the White House coronavirus task force, explained the rationale for wearing face masks. He also explained why the CDC didn’t initially suggest wearing them [Continued…]


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Cumberland Advisors Market Commentaries offer insights and analysis on upcoming, important economic issues that potentially impact global financial markets. Our team shares their thinking on global economic developments, market news and other factors that often influence investment opportunities and strategies.

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Cumberland Advisors® is registered with the SEC under the Investment Advisers Act of 1940. All information contained herein is for informational purposes only and does not constitute a solicitation or offer to sell securities or investment advisory services. Such an offer can only be made in the states where Cumberland Advisors is either registered or is a Notice Filer or where an exemption from such registration or filing is available. New accounts will not be accepted unless and until all local regulations have been satisfied. This presentation does not purport to be a complete description of our performance or investment services. Please feel free to forward our commentaries (with proper attribution) to others who may be interested. It is not our intention to state or imply in any manner that past results and profitability is an indication of future performance. All material presented is compiled from sources believed to be reliable. However, accuracy cannot be guaranteed.
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