Cumberland Advisors Week in Review (Jun 08, 2020 – Jun 12, 2020)

The Cumberland Advisors Week in Review is a recap of news, commentary, and opinion from our team.

Week In Review

These are not revised assessments, and circumstances may have changed in the market from the time of original publication. We also include older commentaries that our editors have determined may be of interest to our audience. Your feedback is always welcome.

CUMBERLAND ADVISORS’ WEEKLY RECAP

As part of Cumberland Advisors’ continuous effort to maintain strong customer relationships, we offer this week’s short video discussing current market conditions and how we are positioning portfolios.

Dear Clients & Friends,

Thank you for joining Cumberland Advisors for this end-of-week update on market conditions, bonds & equities with Matt McAleer, and John Moussea, CFA.

This week:
Matt McAleer on ETFs & Equities
-Volatility!
-We’re seeing a lot of activity by speculative call and put buyers
-They are susceptible to emotions and greed
-When you run up on stems, the pullbacks are nasty
-The pullback is making for some attractive entry points
-There’s a great battle going on: The Economy vs Headlines (COVID-19, China, protests, etc) is giving us a potpouri of danger on a day-to-day basis
-On a micro level we see some companies and sectors that look very attractive
-We’ve taken some buy/sell/cash action in strategies – Matt details
-There’s a grind ahead
John Mousseau’s Update on the Fixed Income Market
-The week in bonds – Yields are down, John details
-Muni deals are oversubscribed this week
-Munis have made a total return since the carnage of March
-Munis are a good buy on a relative basis
-John discusses the Fed and interest rates
-We want to own things that are not Treasuries – John explains 

Thanks for joining us again this week. Please reach out with any questions/comments you may have about this update; we appreciate your calls, comments, and emails.

Watch in the player above or at this link: https://youtu.be/SnnPPk2doJ4

Stay safe, healthy, and have a great weekend.

-Matt McAleer

Matt enjoys your feedback. You can reach him at:
-Link to Matt’s Email: Matthew.McAleer@Cumber.com
-Link to Matt’s Twitter: https://twitter.com/MattMcAleer4
-Link to Matt’s LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/matthew-c-mcaleer/
-Call Matt: (800) 257-7013

Other questions or comments? Email us at info@cumber.com or give us a call at (800) 257-7013.

Contact Matt or any one of our advisors by following this link: https://www.cumber.com/our-people/


Cumberland Advisors Market Commentary

Cumberland Advisors Market Commentary offers insights and analysis on upcoming, important economic issues that potentially impact global financial markets. Our team shares their thinking on global economic developments, market news and other factors that often influence investment opportunities and strategies. Our readers appreciate its timeliness, depth of analysis, and quality of research.

To read current and past commentaries, visit https://www.cumber.com/category/market-commentary/


Cumberland Advisors Market Commentary –  Human Emotions, Structure of Strategy, and Diversification of Risk

Author: David R. Kotok, Post Date: June 10, 2020
Human Emotions, Structure of Strategy, and Diversification of Risk 

Below is a 20 year comparison of MDY (the S&P 400 midcap index) and SPY (the S&P 500 largecap index). The 20 year relative performance gap is obvious. Please look carefully at those interim periods when MDY violently outperformed SPY and also look at reversals. The typical investment question is “what happens next?” One of [Continued…]

Cumberland Advisors Market Commentary – Digging Deeper

Author: Robert Eisenbeis, Ph.D., Post Date: June 9, 2020
Market Commentary - Cumberland Advisors - Digging Deeper- Who Was and Was Not Employed 

On Friday, the Dow bounced over 750 points, reacting to the May employment report. In truth, it seems that participants never read beyond the first sentence, which stated: “Total nonfarm payroll employment rose by 2.5 million in May (private sector employment increased 3.1 million while government employment declined by 585 thousand) and the unemployment rate [Continued…]

 

Cumberland Advisors Market Commentary – Where Are Munis Getting Their Money?

Author: Patricia Healy, CFA, Post Date: June 8, 2020
Market Commentary - Cumberland Advisors - Where Are Munis Getting Their Money - Patricia Healy, CFA 

Municipalities derive their revenues from many sources. At the state level, sales taxes, personal income taxes, and corporate taxes are the largest sources of revenue; and there are other taxes and fees that states can raise. We’ve all seen them, from gas taxes and fees to gambling and lottery revenue. Local governments and school districts [Continued…]

Cumberland Advisors Commentary – Four Guests

Author: David R. Kotok, Post Date: June 7, 2020
Market Commentary - Cumberland Advisors - Four GuestsI remember 1968. This is much bigger. In other commentaries we will deal with market reactions, economic outlook, and the impacts from the double whammy of rioting nationwide on top of COVID-19. This Sunday morning, we aren’t talking about markets. We’re hosting four guests. We’ll start with a 45-second question posed by educator and activist [Continued…]

Liquidity Impact on the Stock Market

Author: Leo Chen, Ph.D., Post Date: June 5, 2020

Market Commentary - Cumberland Advisors - Liquidity Impact on the Stock Market

All three major indices have continued their rallies in June: The S&P 500 is up 2.23%, the Dow Jones Industrial Average is up 3.54%, and the Nasdaq composite is up 1.33%. The S&P 500 has marked a 42% return since the March 23rd low for the large-cap index, while the Nasdaq Composite is only 2.26% [Continued…]

Mexico’s Twin Crises: The Pandemic and a Plunging Economy

Author: William Witherell, Ph.D., Post Date: June 4, 2020

Market Commentary - Cumberland Advisors - Mexico's Twin Crises The Pandemic and a Plunging Economy

South of the border, our neighbor and the second largest economy in Latin America, Mexico, is experiencing a severe and still worsening health crisis due to the COVID-19 pandemic. The dire effects of the illness itself are compounded by a brutal decline in the economy, which at the start of 2020 had already been in [Continued…]

Inflation, Deflation, and Capacity Utilization – Part 2

Author: Robert Eisenbeis, Ph.D., Post Date: June 3, 2020

Market Commentary - Cumberland Advisors - Inflation, Deflation, and Capacity Utilization – Part 2

Bloomberg’s Lisa Abramowicz recently tweeted, “When you measure the prices of things Americans are spending money on right now, ‘it turns out that the actual inflation rate is not as low’ as the data suggest” (https://twitter.com/lisaabramowicz1/status/1263868020516151298). Her evidence was a chart showing how spending for food at home had jumped while spending on food away [Continued…]

Two Covers; Two Sectors

Author: David R. Kotok, Post Date: June 2, 2020

Market Commentary - Cumberland Advisors - Two Covers Two Sectors

If you looked at the two different covers of The Economist for May 30, 2020, you saw the 100,000-death message on the American version, and you saw the Hong Kong security law depiction on the Asian edition. Internal content was mostly the same, but the lead stories reflected the world as the Economist editors saw it and wanted to [Continued…]

S&P 500 After COVID-19

Author: Leo Chen, Ph.D., Post Date: June 1, 2020

Market Commentary - Cumberland Advisors - S&P 500 After COVID-19

The S&P 500 Index is widely used as the benchmark for over $9.9 trillion in investments. After losing 35.4% in just a month, the index has rebounded 36.5% from its March 23rd bottom. These extraordinary numbers during extraordinary times are unlikely to continue after COVID-19’s impacts on the market subside. So what can we expect [Continued…]

COVID-19 Impacts & Philanthropic Opportunities: GGA Interview with Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic

Author: David R. Kotok, Post Date: May 31, 2020

Interview between Lydia Clements & Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic

Good Sunday Morning, and please take some time for a walk with your earbuds. We have for you a video call between Lydia Clements, director of the Georgia Grantmakers Alliance, and Raphael Bostic, president and chief executive officer of the Atlanta Fed: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EWIj8iNV6QU. At the SECF website the Georgia Grantmakers Alliance (GGA) is described as [Continued…]

 

Hydroxychloroquine

Author: David R. Kotok , Post Date: May 29, 2020

Market Commentary - Cumberland Advisors - The Debate Over Hydroxychloroquine

The Debate Over Hydroxychloroquine President Trump’s surprise announcement on Monday, May 18, that he is taking hydroxychloroquine as a preventative against COVID-19 prompted Fox News host Neil Cavuto to quickly warn, “If you are in a risky population here, and you are taking this as a preventative treatment to ward off the virus or in [Continued…]

Money, Taxes, Fed & COVID-19

Author: David R. Kotok, Post Date: May 26, 2020

Market Commentary - Cumberland Advisors - Money, Taxes, Fed & COVID-19

At the following link readers may download a PDF file of the May 15th Joint Committee on Taxation analysis of federal receipts attributable to the latest stimulus bill passed by the House: https://www.jct.gov/publications.html?func=startdown&id=5260. The pressure for the Senate to act is growing daily and will only intensify. We expect something to come in the way of [Continued…]


Wall Street’s road warriors have spent the past three months grounded. How’s that working out?

John Mauldin misses the little thrill of being recognized in an airport, while Barry Ritholtz muses on having staggered shifts in his office. What else did ‘lockdown’ mean to finance’s heavyweights?

June 13, 2020 By Andrea Riquier

John Mousseau before the lockdown and during
John Mousseau before the lockdown and during

MarketWatch checked in with a few high-profile financial road warriors to see how they’ve handled having to hunker down, their overnight bags gathering dust. We asked what, if any, shifts in the way financial services operate might be here to stay when things get “back to normal,” if there is such a thing.   [Continued…]


Instant View: Wall Street backslides on economic gloom, uptick in virus cases

Reuters – June 12, 2020

Cumberland-Advisors-David-Kotok-In-The-News

NEW YORK (Reuters) – Wall Street indexes nosedived on Thursday, on track for their worst days since early in the coronavirus pandemic as investors reassessed a stocks resurgence after the Fed issued a gloomy growth forecast and infections showed signs of upswing.

DAVID R KOTOK, “Everything changed with COVID fear. It provides nerve-wracking violent moves which can induce more fear or provide trading opportunities depending on the investor and their capability and discipline. I haven’t deployed any cash in this selloff yet. That could change at any time. I raised cash into the rally. At this point I wish I’d raised more. I sold stocks and raised cash.”  [Continued…]


Bloomberg Radio Interview: David Kotok – Health Care Will Be 20% of This Country’s GDP

June 11, 2020 – Running time 07:32

David Kotok, Chairman & Chief Investment Officer at Cumberland Advisors, on credit spreads and the Fed. Hosted by Vonnie Quinn and Paul Sweeney.

David Kotok Interview

LISTEN HERE: https://www.bloomberg.com/news/audio/2020-06-11/health-care-will-be-20-of-this-country-s-gdp-kotok-radio


The economy is reopening in all 50 states and there is a patchwork of regulations and guidelines on how to do it safely. What about masks? Anecdotally, we still see a lot of folks not wearing them in public. What do we know?

About Masks – (Plus a personal note)

David Kotok - About MasksStraight Talk on Masks from Anthony Fauci In a widely shared YouTube interview with Lilly Singh, Anthony Fauci, head of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases (NIAID) and a member of the White House coronavirus task force, explained the rationale for wearing face masks. He also explained why the CDC didn’t initially suggest wearing them [Continued…]


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Cumberland Advisors Market Commentaries offer insights and analysis on upcoming, important economic issues that potentially impact global financial markets. Our team shares their thinking on global economic developments, market news and other factors that often influence investment opportunities and strategies.