Cumberland Advisors Week in Review (Jun 22, 2020 – Jun 26, 2020)

Author: Cumberland Advisors, Post Date: June 27, 2020
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The Cumberland Advisors Week in Review is a recap of news, commentary, and opinion from our team.

Week In Review

These are not revised assessments, and circumstances may have changed in the market from the time of original publication. We also include older commentaries that our editors have determined may be of interest to our audience. Your feedback is always welcome.

CUMBERLAND ADVISORS’ WEEKLY RECAP

As part of Cumberland Advisors’ continuous effort to maintain strong customer relationships, we offer this week’s short video discussing current market conditions and how we are positioning portfolios.

Dear Clients & Friends,

Thank you for joining Cumberland Advisors for this end-of-week update on market conditions, bonds & equities with Matt McAleer, and John Moussea, CFA.

This week:
Matt McAleer on ETFs & Equities
-Everything you can ask for!
-Concerns? Financials…
-Some of the froth is coming off of June gains
-Be careful about drawing lines in the sand. We don’t know where the market will pull back to.
-We have some dry powder in the way of cash for some of our strategiesJohn Mousseau’s Update on the Fixed Income Market
-Concern over re-flaring of virus and downdraft of economic activity
-We think work will continue with no hard shut down
-On the muni side, easy week. About 8 billion in issuance, all deals well subscribed
-Cheap deals get way over subscribed – plenty of demand for cheap municipal issuance
-Retail investors are gearing up for a July 1st coupon reinvestment periodKeep in mind markets are closed on July 3rd. We’ll see you a day early on Thursday.Please reach out with any questions/comments you may have about this update; we appreciate your calls, comments, and emails. Watch in the player above or at this link: https://youtu.be/BAHK2EeiWpw

 

-Matt McAleer

Matt enjoys your feedback. You can reach him at:
-Link to Matt’s Email: Matthew.McAleer@Cumber.com
-Link to Matt’s Twitter: https://twitter.com/MattMcAleer4
-Link to Matt’s LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/matthew-c-mcaleer/
-Call Matt: (800) 257-7013

Other questions or comments? Email us at info@cumber.com or give us a call at (800) 257-7013.

Contact Matt or any one of our advisors by following this link: https://www.cumber.com/our-people/


Cumberland Advisors Market Commentary

Cumberland Advisors Market Commentary offers insights and analysis on upcoming, important economic issues that potentially impact global financial markets. Our team shares their thinking on global economic developments, market news and other factors that often influence investment opportunities and strategies. Our readers appreciate its timeliness, depth of analysis, and quality of research.

To read current and past commentaries, visit https://www.cumber.com/category/market-commentary/


South Korea vs. Brazil: Smart Policies and Practices Save Lives

Author: William Witherell, Ph.D., Post Date: June 26, 2020

Bill Witherell, Ph.D. Chief Global Economist & Portfolio Manager Email | Bio There are sharp differences in the way countries have responded to the global pandemic caused by the COVID-19 virus. A comparison of the recent experiences of South Korea, widely recognized as having the best organized COVID-19 defense, and Brazil, a strong contender for [Continued…]


Forrest Gump Responses

Author: David R. Kotok, Post Date: June 25, 2020

We’ve been compiling responses to our commentary on Forrest Gump’s advice. For those who missed it, here’s the link: https://www.cumber.com/cumberland-advisors-commentary-forrest-gumps-advice/. Now some quotes from readers. Bruce wrote: “Thanks for your Forrest Gump moment. Your most revealing sentence in all of this missive is ‘people are now required to take full responsibility for their own personal […]


Update from ECRI

Author: David R. Kotok, Post Date: June 24, 2020

Market Commentary - Cumberland Advisors - A Nasty, Short and Bitter Recession (ECRI)

“A Nasty, Short and Bitter Recession”: An Update First: here’s some very important history; then, the updated forecast! The Economic Cycle Research Institute (ECRI) specializes in “calling cycle turning points in economic growth and inflation” and has a long, exemplary history of getting those forecasts right (https://www.businesscycle.com). Cofounded by the late Geoffrey H. Moore, winner […]


Not What It Seems: Where’s the Beef?

Author: Robert Eisenbeis, Ph.D., Post Date: June 23, 2020

Not What It Seems: Where’s the Beef? As reported previously, the Federal Reserve has embarked upon an evolving series of support and lending programs as part of its emergency response to the COVID-19 pandemic. As Chairman Powell stated in his post-FOMC meeting press conference and in subsequent Congressional testimony, the Fed has responded “forcefully, proactively and aggressively” to the crisis. This is […]


Father’s Day

Author: David R. Kotok, Post Date: June 21, 2020

Happy Fathers Day

Happy Father’s Day. I will be brief so that you can get right to this Sunday’s video offering — a wonderful message on YouTube. My father was born in 1918, the year of the Spanish Flu. He grew up in the family grocery store. He worked there for his father, who worked there for his […]


 

Loretta Mester Interview

Author: David R. Kotok, Post Date: June 19, 2020

Fed president & CEO Loretta Mester On Demand Interview

Loretta Mester has a distinguished, multi-decade career with the Federal Reserve. She currently serves as president and CEO of the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, votes on the FOMC, and immerses herself deeply in the issues of America’s banks and financial institutions. She agreed to an extended and detailed hour-long discussion with GIC. Here’s the […]


Happy Birthday to Cumberland

Author: David R. Kotok, Post Date: June 18, 2020

Market Commentary - Cumberland Advisors - Happy Birthday to Cumberland June 18, 2020, is the 47th anniversary of the founding of Cumberland Advisors. My co-founding partner, the late Sheldon “Shep” Goldberg, and I had completed the filing with the Securities & Exchange Commission by mail. We complied with all appropriate rules. We used a special law firm whose expertise was needed in those days. And we […]


The FOMC: Whatever (and However Long) It Takes

Author: Robert Eisenbeis, Ph.D., Post Date: June 17, 2020

Market Commentary - Cumberland Advisors - The FOMC Whatever (and However Long) It Takes To no one’s surprise, the FOMC in its June meeting reaffirmed its 0–25 basis-point target for the federal funds rate. Markets did not react well, especially since the announcement came on the heels of a fairly downbeat assessment by Chairman Powell regarding the expected slow path for the recovery and the problems in the labor […]


AOC or MCC

Author: David R. Kotok, Post Date: June 16, 2020

David-Kotok-Quote - This is what’s best for my country “Do you have a forecast for the November election?” asked a client. Matt McAleer and I were doing a joint account review conference call. The question has been increasingly raised in our client and consultant review meetings. At the moment the answer is “no.” We watch the polls, and we noted the reduction in Trump […]


Forrest Gump’s Advice

Author: David R. Kotok, Post Date: June 14, 2020

Market Commentary - Cumberland Advisors - Is a refusal to wear a mask, as Forrest Gump said Stupid is as stupid does I wish all readers a good Sunday morning. I have to be more sobering today than I have been in recent Sunday missives. Below is a quote from POLITICO, issued on Thursday morning, June 11, 2020, at about 8:30 AM. “VP MIKE PENCE visited a TRUMP/PENCE campaign office and posted a photo of the staff standing […]


Cumberland Advisors Market Commentary – Human Emotions, Structure of Strategy, and Diversification of Risk

Author: David R. Kotok, Post Date: June 10, 2020

Human Emotions, Structure of Strategy, and Diversification of Risk

Below is a 20 year comparison of MDY (the S&P 400 midcap index) and SPY (the S&P 500 largecap index). The 20 year relative performance gap is obvious. Please look carefully at those interim periods when MDY violently outperformed SPY and also look at reversals. The typical investment question is “what happens next?” One of [Continued…]

Cumberland Advisors Market Commentary – Digging Deeper

Author: Robert Eisenbeis, Ph.D., Post Date: June 9, 2020

Market Commentary - Cumberland Advisors - Digging Deeper- Who Was and Was Not Employed

On Friday, the Dow bounced over 750 points, reacting to the May employment report. In truth, it seems that participants never read beyond the first sentence, which stated: “Total nonfarm payroll employment rose by 2.5 million in May (private sector employment increased 3.1 million while government employment declined by 585 thousand) and the unemployment rate [Continued…]


Dr. Robert Corell at USFSM

Are municipalities ready for climate change? What are the repercussions for credit ratings and bonds? We examined many different angles of climate change during our January 2019 Climate Change summit ( https://buff.ly/2WgFkWU ) led by Bob Bunting at the University of South Florida Sarasota-Manatee (USFSM) including a presentation on conditions in the arctic.

We were fortunate to have the opportunity to speak to the featured presenter, Dr. Robert Corell, about his experience in the arctic for a few minutes on camera. David R. Kotok of Cumberland Advisors leads the discussion, “What’s Happening in the Arctic,” in this short interview.

See Dr. Corell’s talk along with presentation slides at the 31:05 minute mark here: https://buff.ly/2WgFkWU


The economy is reopening in all 50 states and there is a patchwork of regulations and guidelines on how to do it safely. What about masks? Anecdotally, we still see a lot of folks not wearing them in public. What do we know?

About Masks – (Plus a personal note)

David Kotok - About MasksStraight Talk on Masks from Anthony Fauci In a widely shared YouTube interview with Lilly Singh, Anthony Fauci, head of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases (NIAID) and a member of the White House coronavirus task force, explained the rationale for wearing face masks. He also explained why the CDC didn’t initially suggest wearing them [Continued…]


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Cumberland Advisors Market Commentaries offer insights and analysis on upcoming, important economic issues that potentially impact global financial markets. Our team shares their thinking on global economic developments, market news and other factors that often influence investment opportunities and strategies.

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Cumberland Advisors® is registered with the SEC under the Investment Advisers Act of 1940. All information contained herein is for informational purposes only and does not constitute a solicitation or offer to sell securities or investment advisory services. Such an offer can only be made in the states where Cumberland Advisors is either registered or is a Notice Filer or where an exemption from such registration or filing is available. New accounts will not be accepted unless and until all local regulations have been satisfied. This presentation does not purport to be a complete description of our performance or investment services. Please feel free to forward our commentaries (with proper attribution) to others who may be interested. It is not our intention to state or imply in any manner that past results and profitability is an indication of future performance. All material presented is compiled from sources believed to be reliable. However, accuracy cannot be guaranteed.
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