Cumberland Advisors Week in Review (May 18, 2020 – May 22, 2020)

Author: Cumberland Advisors, Post Date: May 23, 2020
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The Cumberland Advisors Week in Review is a recap of news, commentary, and opinion from our team.

Week In Review

These are not revised assessments, and circumstances may have changed in the market from the time of original publication. We also include older commentaries that our editors have determined may be of interest to our audience. Your feedback is always welcome.

CUMBERLAND ADVISORS’ WEEKLY RECAP

As part of Cumberland Advisors’ continuous effort to maintain strong customer relationships, we offer this week’s short video discussing current market conditions and how we are positioning portfolios.

Dear Clients & Friends,
Thank you for joining Cumberland Advisors for this end-of-week update on market conditions, bonds & equities with Matt McAleer, and John Mousseau.
John and Matt are back at the office, taking turns on camera so they can continue to inform you and practice safe social distancing. Their takes follow.
John Mousseau’s Update on the Fixed Income Market
-Fairly calm. -10yr & 30yr ticked up this week
-Real story is with tax-free bonds and a bump of 15/17 bps
-Narrowing of spreads between markets
-We expect gap to continue to close as things improve overall in the economy
-There’s talk of more help for state/local gov’ts
-The MTA in NY was able to access the Fed’s short-term note program
-Deals were oversubscribed this week by up to 7-times
-We predict an eventual rise in taxes, no matter who is in the White House
-A rise in the Federal Marginal Top Tax Rate will boost the value of all Municipal Bonds, all other things being equal.
Matt McAleer on Equities
-We had a pretty good bid this week; most of it Monday on vaccine news
-Now on to discuss how we’re positioned in strategies
-US Equity Strategy -International Strategy
-Tactical Trend Strategy -Blend of US Portfolios & Fixed Income
-What about Biotech?
-We are cautious and we try not to get “beyond our headlights”
-We’re back to 2950 with a whole new basket of headaches
-Are we too far “over our skis” in the Equity Market?
-Matt’s Mantra on Capital Allocation: We want to allocate capital on pullbacks to sectors that are working
Thanks for joining us again this week. Please reach out with any questions/comments you may have about this update; we appreciate your calls, comments, and emails. Watch in the player above or at this link: https://youtu.be/rQ8F7kpbios
Stay safe, healthy, and have a great weekend.

Matt enjoys your feedback. You can reach him at:
-Link to Matt’s Email: Matthew.McAleer@Cumber.com
-Link to Matt’s Twitter: https://twitter.com/MattMcAleer4
-Link to Matt’s LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/matthew-c-mcaleer/
-Call Matt: (800) 257-7013

Other questions or comments? Email us at info@cumber.com or give us a call at (800) 257-7013.

Contact Matt or any one of our advisors by following this link: https://www.cumber.com/our-people/

 


Cumberland Advisors In The News

BondBuyer – Municipal short-end rally grinds on

Quoted: John R. Mousseau, CFA | Posted on: 05/20/2020 read more

Illinois to sell debt as fiscal woes worsen in coronavirus outbreak

Quoted: John R. Mousseau, CFA | Posted on: 05/07/2020 read more

More News About Cumberland Advisors Here: https://www.cumber.com/news


Cumberland Advisors Market Commentary

Cumberland Advisors Market Commentary offers insights and analysis on upcoming, important economic issues that potentially impact global financial markets. Our team shares their thinking on global economic developments, market news and other factors that often influence investment opportunities and strategies. Our readers appreciate its timeliness, depth of analysis, and quality of research.

To read current and past commentaries, visit https://www.cumber.com/category/market-commentary/

 


Inflation and Capacity Utilization

Author: Robert Eisenbeis, Ph.D. & David R. Kotok, Post Date: May 22, 2020

Cumberland Advisors' Robert "Bob" Eisenbeis, Ph.D.

At Cumberland, we continuously have internal strategy discussions. We decided to make one such discussion, on the subject of inflation and US capacity utilization, available in the form of a commentary to clients, consultants, and all readers. Below you’ll find a summation of our discussion, written by Bob Eisenbeis, Cumberland Advisors Chief Monetary Economist. -David [Continued…]

COVID-19, stock market, some Senators’ behavior

Author: David R. Kotok, Post Date: May 21, 2020

David R. Kotok

It’s no wonder that citizens, voters and disaffected non-voters, investors and market agents, as well as others who observe the United States, have a low opinion of the Congress. Behavior of one reflects on all. Nothing new there. But the virus crisis has taken regard for Congress to a new low level as the country [Continued…]

Cry for Brazil, and also for Latin America

Author: William Witherell, Ph.D., Post Date: May 20, 2020

Market Commentary - Cumberland Advisors - Cry for Brazil, and also for Latin America by William Witherell, Ph.D

The coronavirus is tearing through Brazil, a country ill-equipped to fight the pandemic. It’s hard-right populist leader, Jair Bolsonaro, has dismissed the virus as a “little flu.” COVID-19 is spreading through the population of 210 million, savaging both the inhabitants of the indigenous villages of the Amazon and the 13 million people packed together in [Continued…]

Zika Vaccine

Author: David R. Kotok, Post Date: May 19, 2020

Zika-Pamphlet-by-David-R-Kotok

What seems like ages ago, we wrote about Zika. Multiple commentaries became a pamphlet which was and is available free. Here’s the link: https://www.cumber.com/zika/. In that pamphlet is a chapter about how a political fight held up Zika vaccine research for a year. The costs in human and monetary terms are estimated in the pamphlet. [Continued…]

Inflation/Deflation: What Do We Know Now?

Author: Robert Eisenbeis, Ph.D., Post Date: May 18, 2020

Cumberland Advisors' Robert "Bob" Eisenbeis, Ph.D.

The most recent CPI numbers show a decline of 0.8% for the month of April, triggering questions about both a possible deflation and where prices are likely to go in the future. The fact is that no one knows what inflation will do in the short run, and all we have to go on, as [Continued…]

Good Morning to Betsy and to Liz

Author: David R. Kotok, Post Date: May 17, 2020

Guest Commentary - Cumberland Advisors - Good Morning to Betsy and to Liz

My friend Betsy emailed me and said, “You’re having too much fun.” Thank you, Betsy. You are correct, as usual. Dear Readers, we have to maintain some sense of something or other (joie de vivre, perhaps) during this constant barrage from the news flow. The Sunday morning missives started with “Daffodils” (https://www.cumber.com/cumberland-advisors-market-commentary-daffodils/). The response to [Continued…]

Risking an Investment War with China

Author: William Witherell, Ph.D., Post Date: May 15, 2020

Market Commentary - Cumberland Advisors - Risking an Investment War with China by William Witherell, Ph.D

Not having learned the costly lessons of a US-China trade war, the US government has now taken action that risks triggering an investment war with China that could have serious negative effects on the economies of both countries at a time when each will be seeking to recover from the heavy impacts of the COVID-19 [Continued…]

Trump Opportunity, Puerto Rico, Pharma

Author: David R. Kotok, Post Date: May 13, 2020

Cumberland Advisors Market Commentary - Trump Opportunity, Puerto Rico, Pharma

My friend Dennis Gartman had a guest commentary in the wonderful and comprehensive monthly research publication offered by Gary Shilling (www.agaryshilling.com) and thoughtfully assembled and edited by Fred Rossi. I thank both Gary and Fred for permission to quote their work. Dennis wrote: “Puerto Rico shall be a huge winner, for it was only a [Continued…]


Cumberland Advisors HQ is in Sarasota, Fla., and we’re preparing for another hurricane season starting June 6th along with the COVID-19 precautions the rest of the country is engaged in. Here’s a look back at Cumberland Advisors’ small, fact-finding group that went to Key West and five other Keys that were hit by Hurricane Irma. We spoke to many locals, park officials, business owners, including numerous fishing guides that lost homes and their business assets to the immense power of Hurricane Irma. See the story here: https://www.cumber.com/florida-keys-devastation-after-hurricane-irma/

Immediately after Hurricane Irma’s eye passed over the Florida Keys, massive damage to the Lower and Middle Keys was apparent where hundreds of homes and businesses were destroyed by high winds and a huge storm surge.


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Cumberland Advisors Market Commentaries offer insights and analysis on upcoming, important economic issues that potentially impact global financial markets. Our team shares their thinking on global economic developments, market news and other factors that often influence investment opportunities and strategies.

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Cumberland Advisors® is registered with the SEC under the Investment Advisers Act of 1940. All information contained herein is for informational purposes only and does not constitute a solicitation or offer to sell securities or investment advisory services. Such an offer can only be made in the states where Cumberland Advisors is either registered or is a Notice Filer or where an exemption from such registration or filing is available. New accounts will not be accepted unless and until all local regulations have been satisfied. This presentation does not purport to be a complete description of our performance or investment services. Please feel free to forward our commentaries (with proper attribution) to others who may be interested. It is not our intention to state or imply in any manner that past results and profitability is an indication of future performance. All material presented is compiled from sources believed to be reliable. However, accuracy cannot be guaranteed.
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