Cumberland Advisors Week in Review (May 26, 2020 – May 29, 2020)

Author: Cumberland Advisors, Post Date: May 30, 2020
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The Cumberland Advisors Week in Review is a recap of news, commentary, and opinion from our team.

Week In Review

These are not revised assessments, and circumstances may have changed in the market from the time of original publication. We also include older commentaries that our editors have determined may be of interest to our audience. Your feedback is always welcome.

CUMBERLAND ADVISORS’ WEEKLY RECAP

As part of Cumberland Advisors’ continuous effort to maintain strong customer relationships, we offer this week’s short video discussing current market conditions and how we are positioning portfolios.

Dear Clients & Friends,

Thank you for joining Cumberland Advisors for this end-of-week update on market conditions, bonds & equities with me, Matt McAleer, and John Mousseau. David Kotok joins us in a separate video further down in this commentary.

This week:
John Mousseau’s Update on the Fixed Income Market
-Very quiet week in the bond market
-A continued narrowing between Munis and Treasuries, but not much
-Demand for Munis is back – some can be in their own universe
-Jobless claims are down a little – good sign
-The economy continues to open up and progress
-Overall a boring week. We like boring over all the volatility earlier this spring!Matt McAleer on Markets
-Encouraging to see a bid in small and mid caps
-We have some charts to share with you
-Lean on analytics and data to achieve a flexible view
-Where do we have cash?
-The strongest markets never let you in
-The weakest markets never let you out
-We’re in a very strong market
-1st chart – This chart measures the percent of stocks in the S&P 500 currently trading above their 10 week moving average
-2nd chart – When the S&P trades 10% above its 50 day moving average – very rare! How rare? It’s only occurred six times since 1955.

David Kotok talks about Masks, Markets, and ETFs
-Good to get outside (with a mask!)
-Societies that wear masks have better outcomes, we’re new to this
-I wear a mask to protect myself and you if I contract the virus and am asymptomatic
-Unusual times, incredible series of events, unthinkable in any forecast, unpredictable
-Let’s talk markets
-In our US ETF portfolio we are:
* Overweight Healthcare – we have remained that way and continue that way as of today
* Overweight ESG – Solar, Wind, Water – we have been that way and we continue that way
* Overweight Defense – the Defense Aerospace sector. I wish it weren’t so but the world looks to be getting more dangerous
* We are not fully invested today, we have a cash reserve, it has been there and it continues to be there. We’ll see when we’ll deploy it.
* We do not know how the economics will unfold, we do not know if a second wave of the virus is coming, and we do not know when we will have widespread vaccination and effective treatments
-Please be safe and careful

Thanks for joining us again this week. Please reach out with any questions/comments you may have about this update; we appreciate your calls, comments, and emails. Watch in the player above or at this link: https://youtu.be/isgC8sSacEI

Direct link to David’s video is here or watch in the player below: https://youtu.be/ouXWLBu8SE0

 

Stay safe, healthy, and have a great weekend.

-Matt McAleer

Matt enjoys your feedback. You can reach him at:
-Link to Matt’s Email: Matthew.McAleer@Cumber.com
-Link to Matt’s Twitter: https://twitter.com/MattMcAleer4
-Link to Matt’s LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/matthew-c-mcaleer/
-Call Matt: (800) 257-7013

Other questions or comments? Email us at info@cumber.com or give us a call at (800) 257-7013.

Contact Matt or any one of our advisors by following this link: https://www.cumber.com/our-people/


Bloomberg Daybreak Australia: David Kotok Discusses Dislocation in Markets/Economy

May 27, 2020 – Running time 48:27 – David joins at the 8:20 mark

David Kotok, Chairman & Chief Investment Officer at Cumberland Advisors, discusses markets, market dislocation, the economy, coronavirus, growth rates, liquidity, the bargain he sees in municipal bonds, and more. Hosted by Haidi Stroud-Watts.

Bloomberg Daybreak Australia with David R. Kotok (05-27-2020)

Watch here: https://www.bloomberg.com/news/videos/2020-05-27/-bloomberg-daybreak-australia-full-show-05-27-2020-video


Cumberland Advisors Market Commentary

Cumberland Advisors Market Commentary offers insights and analysis on upcoming, important economic issues that potentially impact global financial markets. Our team shares their thinking on global economic developments, market news and other factors that often influence investment opportunities and strategies. Our readers appreciate its timeliness, depth of analysis, and quality of research.

To read current and past commentaries, visit https://www.cumber.com/category/market-commentary/


Hydroxychloroquine

Author: David R. Kotok , Post Date: May 29, 2020

Market Commentary - Cumberland Advisors - The Debate Over Hydroxychloroquine

The Debate Over Hydroxychloroquine President Trump’s surprise announcement on Monday, May 18, that he is taking hydroxychloroquine as a preventative against COVID-19 prompted Fox News host Neil Cavuto to quickly warn, “If you are in a risky population here, and you are taking this as a preventative treatment to ward off the virus or in [Continued…]

Money, Taxes, Fed & COVID-19

Author: David R. Kotok, Post Date: May 26, 2020

Market Commentary - Cumberland Advisors - Money, Taxes, Fed & COVID-19

At the following link readers may download a PDF file of the May 15th Joint Committee on Taxation analysis of federal receipts attributable to the latest stimulus bill passed by the House: https://www.jct.gov/publications.html?func=startdown&id=5260. The pressure for the Senate to act is growing daily and will only intensify. We expect something to come in the way of [Continued…]

Memorial Day

Author: David R. Kotok, Post Date: May 24, 2020

Memorial Day

“Originally, Memorial Day was known as Decoration Day, meant to honor the Union and the Confederate soldiers who died during the American Civil War. By the 1900s it had become a day to celebrate all American soldiers who died while serving in the military. It wasn’t until 1967 that it was legally named Memorial Day.” (Source: https://www.softschools.com/facts/holidays/memorial_day_facts/158/) When I served in [Continued…]

Inflation and Capacity Utilization

Author: Robert Eisenbeis, Ph.D. & David R. Kotok, Post Date: May 22, 2020

Cumberland Advisors' Robert "Bob" Eisenbeis, Ph.D.

At Cumberland, we continuously have internal strategy discussions. We decided to make one such discussion, on the subject of inflation and US capacity utilization, available in the form of a commentary to clients, consultants, and all readers. Below you’ll find a summation of our discussion, written by Bob Eisenbeis, Cumberland Advisors Chief Monetary Economist. -David [Continued…]

COVID-19, stock market, some Senators’ behavior

Author: David R. Kotok, Post Date: May 21, 2020

David R. Kotok

It’s no wonder that citizens, voters and disaffected non-voters, investors and market agents, as well as others who observe the United States, have a low opinion of the Congress. Behavior of one reflects on all. Nothing new there. But the virus crisis has taken regard for Congress to a new low level as the country [Continued…]

Cry for Brazil, and also for Latin America

Author: William Witherell, Ph.D., Post Date: May 20, 2020

Market Commentary - Cumberland Advisors - Cry for Brazil, and also for Latin America by William Witherell, Ph.D

The coronavirus is tearing through Brazil, a country ill-equipped to fight the pandemic. It’s hard-right populist leader, Jair Bolsonaro, has dismissed the virus as a “little flu.” COVID-19 is spreading through the population of 210 million, savaging both the inhabitants of the indigenous villages of the Amazon and the 13 million people packed together in [Continued…]

Zika Vaccine

Author: David R. Kotok, Post Date: May 19, 2020

Zika-Pamphlet-by-David-R-Kotok

What seems like ages ago, we wrote about Zika. Multiple commentaries became a pamphlet which was and is available free. Here’s the link: https://www.cumber.com/zika/. In that pamphlet is a chapter about how a political fight held up Zika vaccine research for a year. The costs in human and monetary terms are estimated in the pamphlet. [Continued…]

Inflation/Deflation: What Do We Know Now?

Author: Robert Eisenbeis, Ph.D., Post Date: May 18, 2020

Cumberland Advisors' Robert "Bob" Eisenbeis, Ph.D.

The most recent CPI numbers show a decline of 0.8% for the month of April, triggering questions about both a possible deflation and where prices are likely to go in the future. The fact is that no one knows what inflation will do in the short run, and all we have to go on, as [Continued…]


Financial Markets & the Economy – Financial Literacy Day.

Cumberland Advisors in partnership with the University of South Florida, Sarasota-Manatee (USFSM) and the Global Interdependence Center (GIC) are proud to host this annual event.

If you were able to attend our February 14, 2020 event in person, you know how valuable the information was and still is. Didn’t make it? Enjoy it now, on-demand.

Financial Markets & The Economy - Financial Literacy Day Stream Play Now

As news of the coronavirus and its spread was mounting, we offered anyone in attendance a facemask as a precaution. This was two weeks in advance of the CDC making its recommendation and is an example of one of the forward thinking positions we endeavor to employ when it comes to our firm.

The University of South Florida, Sarasota-Manatee (USFSM) has once again provided a replay of the day’s event via their streaming server. Please click the graphic above or visit the following link to watch “Financial Markets and the Economy – Financial Literacy Day 2020.”

https://mediasite.usfsm.edu/Mediasite/Play/b1093c21f612418e83b4f36e274f1c531d

Presentation Documents

The documents are supplementary and provide further information and context to the presentations.

Also, see Bloomberg’s website for Mike McKee’s interview with Loretta Mester, President and CEO, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland. Loretta was our keynote speaker and Mike joined us for the day at the University Of South Florida Sarasota-Manatee.


Cleveland Fed President Loretta Mester Video with Play Button
To watch, click the picture above or follow this link: https://www.bloomberg.com/news/videos/2020-02-14/fed-s-mester-on-u-s-economy-coronavirus-risk-and-rates-video


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Cumberland Advisors Market Commentaries offer insights and analysis on upcoming, important economic issues that potentially impact global financial markets. Our team shares their thinking on global economic developments, market news and other factors that often influence investment opportunities and strategies.

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Cumberland Advisors® is registered with the SEC under the Investment Advisers Act of 1940. All information contained herein is for informational purposes only and does not constitute a solicitation or offer to sell securities or investment advisory services. Such an offer can only be made in the states where Cumberland Advisors is either registered or is a Notice Filer or where an exemption from such registration or filing is available. New accounts will not be accepted unless and until all local regulations have been satisfied. This presentation does not purport to be a complete description of our performance or investment services. Please feel free to forward our commentaries (with proper attribution) to others who may be interested. It is not our intention to state or imply in any manner that past results and profitability is an indication of future performance. All material presented is compiled from sources believed to be reliable. However, accuracy cannot be guaranteed.
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