Cumberland Advisors Week in Review (Nov 02, 2020 – Nov 06, 2020)

The Cumberland Advisors Week in Review is a recap of news, commentary, and opinion from our team.Week In Review

These are not revised assessments, and circumstances may have changed in the market from the time of original publication. We also include older commentaries that our editors have determined may be of interest to our audience. Your feedback is always welcome.

CUMBERLAND ADVISORS’ WEEKLY RECAP

As part of Cumberland Advisors’ continuous effort to maintain strong customer relationships, we offer this week’s short video discussing current market conditions and how we are positioning portfolios.

Thank you for joining Cumberland Advisors for this end-of-week update on market conditions, bonds & equities with John Mousseau, CFA. John is holding down the fort while I’m out of the office this Friday.

John Mousseau on Fixed Income / Munis & Markets
-Still don’t know who’s President. What do we know? No “Blue Wave” and the probability of “divided government.”
-Divided government means, probably, less spending overall and less inflation pressure
-In muniland, supply was low this week because of the rush in supply in October
-A growing list of states approved marijuana-related ballot measures. Why? Tax revenue.
-Some good economic news: this week initial jobless claims down, unemployment drops below 7% to 6.9%.
-How about The Fed? In an anticipated divided government climate, Fed Chair Jay Powell stands ready to use his tools and prod the government for a second stimulus bill.
-Next year we anticipate more consumer spending as pandemic problems wane. Americans have been saving throughout 2020.
-This increased spending rate may bring about increased inflation, something to watch for in 2021.

Please reach out with any questions/comments you may have about this update; we appreciate your calls, comments, and emails. Watch in the player above or at this link: https://youtu.be/xEcUnsnhj9Q

Also, please mark you calendars for Tuesday, November 17, 2020 between Noon and 1:30 pm for a lively and informative virtual discussion on “Post-Election Financial Markets” with a panel of professionals from the University of South Florida Sarasota-Manatee campus and Cumberland Advisors. John and I will be featured panelists along with others from our firm including David R. Kotok, Robert A. Eisenbeis, PhD, Patricia M. Healy, CFA, Bill Witherell, PhD, and Leo Chen, PhD.

More info: https://www.sarasotamanatee.usf.edu/events/post-election-financial-markets.aspx

Stay safe, healthy, and have a great weekend.

-Matt McAleer & Cumberland Advisors

Matt enjoys your feedback. You can reach him at:
-Link to Matt’s Email: Matthew.McAleer@Cumber.com
-Link to Matt’s Twitter: https://twitter.com/MattMcAleer4
-Link to Matt’s LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/matthew-c-mcaleer/
-Call Matt: (800) 257-7013

Other questions or comments? Email us at info@cumber.com or give us a call at (800) 257-7013.

Contact Matt or any one of our advisors by following this link: https://www.cumber.com/our-people/


Cumberland Advisors In The News

The Philadelphia Inquirer quotes David R. Kotok
Wall St. betting on Biden win, GOP Senate, smaller stimulus
November 05, 2020

Muni bonds: “As the economy improves and we get to a vaccine, we should see higher (interest) rates no matter who is finally elected President,” wrote David Kotok, municipal bond and fixed income investor with Cumberland Advisors. For now, however, interest rates remain low.

“Munis should be fine,” he wrote, although these bonds “will probably not get a tax-increase boost right away, from a demand/supply standpoint they are in very good shape.”

Until a second stimulus bill passes Congress, “we may see some additional actions from the Federal Reserve to shore up markets if needed. We also expect further jawboning from the Fed to Congress on the importance of additional stimulus.”
https://www.fa-mag.com/news/california-s-boom-collapses-with-fires-adding–1-1-billion-toll-58482.html


Barron’s quotes John Mousseau, CFA
Fed In Holding Pattern Amid Tense US Election
October 31, 2020

While the Fed moved quickly with new credit lines and the rate cut as the pandemic arrived, the initial momentum to get aid bills through Congress has petered out despite increasingly desperate pleas for more aid from Fed Chair Jerome Powell.

John Mousseau, president and chief executive officer at Cumberland Advisors, said the central bank is likely to again encourage lawmakers to continue the push for new stimulus after the election in the final weeks before a new Congress is installed in January.

“The Fed has done their job,” he said.

And as they call for more aid next week “the message will be delivered to a lame duck Congress that might actually act on what the Fed’s doing.”

https://www.barrons.com/news/fed-in-holding-pattern-amid-tense-us-election-01604194525


CNN Business quotes David R. Kotok
The 2000 recount was a mess. A contested election now would be much scarier for Wall Street
November 02, 2020

“The biggest risk to markets is a violent response to whatever Tuesday night and Wednesday bring,” said David Kotok, chief investment officer of Cumberland Advisors. “Markets don’t like violence.”

In anticipation of possible post-election unrest, some retailers in New York City and Washington have boarded up store windows. Federal authorities are also expected to install a “non-scalable” fence around the perimeter of the White House.

http://www.wicz.com/story/42854224/the-2000-recount-was-a-mess-a-contested-election-now-would-be-much-scarier-for-wall-street


Sarasota Herald Tribune features Robert Eisenbeis, Ph.D.
CUMBERLAND COMMENT: Where do we stand on jobs?
November 02, 2020

Both the economy and the job situation have been radically impacted by the COVID-19 pandemic. In the first quarter of 2020, real GDP declined at an annual rate of -5 %, largely as a result of the first surge of COVID cases in March, when the pandemic began to have a real impact on economic activity. Corporate profits declined by $37.5 billion, and the first round of job losses – over 1.3 million – occurred in March.

The decline in the second-quarter GDP of -31.4 % was even more dramatic and was accompanied by a drop in the PCE price index to 1.6% and by the loss of 20.8 million jobs in April. Rounding out the third quarter, only 7.5 million of those job losses were reversed in May and June. The Bureau of Economic Analysis just released its first estimate of third quarter GDP growth, which came in at an annualized rate of 33.1%. Job numbers in Q3 did rebound but only another 3.9 million were recovered in the third quarter, indicating that the virus continued to impact activity in the third quarter.

Continued: https://www.heraldtribune.com/story/business/briefs/2020/11/02/robert-eisenbeis-where-do-we-stand-jobs/6053636002/


Bloomberg quotes David R. Kotok – Video
Stocks Rallying Because Election ‘Squashed Chaos’: Kotok
November 04, 2020

David Kotok, Cumberland Advisors chairman and chief investment officer, says stocks are rallying because the results of the 2020 presidential election has given investors the calm they’ve been thirsting for. He speaks during an interview on “Election 2020: Ballot Breakdown.”

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/videos/2020-11-04/stocks-rallying-because-election-squashed-chaos-kotok-video


Sarasota Magazine mentions Cumberland Advisors
USF Will Host Panel on Post-Election Financial Markets
November 06, 2020

To help sort through the election results and guide investors through these uncertain times, the University of South Florida will host a virtual panel discussion on financial markets on Nov. 17 from noon-1:30 p.m. Experts from the Sarasota-Manatee campus within the USF Muma College of Business and Sarasota-based Cumberland Advisors will share their expertise and insights to guide investment strategies. 

https://www.sarasotamagazine.com/news-and-profiles/2020/11/usf-will-host-panel-on-post-election-financial-markets


The Bond Buyer quotes John Mousseau, CFA
Munis mixed as elections, FOMC, jobs data loom large over trading week
November 02, 2020

Last Friday was just a typical end-of-the-week session, with no tricks or treats for municipal investors as the market remained quiet ahead of the election, said John Mousseau, president of Cumberland Advisors.

“It was a good time to buy issues in the past few weeks because we know issuers were coming to market to beat the election.” He said this was especially true due to “memories of volatility and the sell-off from four years ago.”

Mousseau noted there were good buying opportunities in recent weeks, however, visible supply has noticeable decreased to $5 billion from $20 billion.

“We will see some reversion to the mean, of course, but this should revert to a sellers market,” he said.

https://www.bondbuyer.com/news/municipal-bonds-mixed-as-elections-fomc-jobs-data-loom


Speak French? LesAffaires.com quotes Robert Eisenbeis Ph.D.
La Fed se réunira au lendemain de l’élection présidentielle
November 02, 2020

Il se pourrait cependant qu’aucune décision ne soit annoncée jeudi, à l’issue de la réunion de deux jours.

« La concomitance de la réunion avec l’élection américaine et la détérioration de la situation sanitaire joueront en faveur d’une approche attentiste », estime Gregory Daco, d’Oxford Economics.

« Ils vont attendre de voir ce qui se passe. Je ne pense pas qu’ils fassent une quelconque annonce dans la foulée d’une élection », a également déclaré à l’AFP Robert Eisenbeis, responsable de la politique monétaire chez le gestionnaire de portefeuille Cumberland.

https://www.lesaffaires.com/monde/amerique/la-fed-se-reunira-au-lendemain-de-l-election-presidentielle-/620798


Cumberland Advisors Market Commentary

Cumberland Advisors Market Commentary offers insights and analysis on upcoming, important economic issues that potentially impact global financial markets. Our team shares their thinking on global economic developments, market news and other factors that often influence investment opportunities and strategies. Our readers appreciate its timeliness, depth of analysis, and quality of research.

To read current and past commentaries, visit https://www.cumber.com/category/market-commentary/


Electoral College Timeline

Author: David R. Kotok, Post Date: November 6, 2020

Here’s the link to the Congressional Research Service report on the Electoral College timeline. Hat tip Politico. https://crsreports.congress.gov/product/pdf/IF/IF11641 David R. Kotok Chairman of the Board & Chief Investment Officer Email | Bio Links to other websites or electronic media controlled or offered by Third-Parties (non-affiliates of Cumberland Advisors) are provided only as a reference and […]


Wave Bye to Blue Wave – Bonds

Author: John R. Mousseau, CFA, Post Date: November 4, 2020

Market Commentary - Cumberland Advisors - Wave Bye to Blue Wave – Bonds

Though we are still sorting out last night’s election, the so-called “blue wave” of a Democratic sweep of the White House, Senate, and House of Representatives didn’t happen. At this hour, the White House is still not decided; it appears the Senate will NOT switch and will stay Republican; and the Republicans made a few […]


Election Day: A Few Case Studies

Author: David R. Kotok, Post Date: November 3, 2020

Commentary - Cumberland Advisors - Election Day- A Few Case Studies

Jack replied to our comments about voting systems and their integrity. Here’s most of his note, to think about on this Election Day: Hi David, I am in Savannah until Covid is over. Permanent residence Atlanta. Set up absentee ballots earlier in the year to come to Atlanta. Reaffirmed for general election in July–August period. […]


Yogi Response

Author: , Post Date: November 2, 2020

Market Commentary - Cumberland Advisors - Yogi Response Commentaries regularly create opportunities to broaden the conversation with readers. A number of readers responded to my take on the election, “Yogi: It Aint Over,” posted on October 14 (https://www.cumber.com/yogi-it-aint-over/). Some readers questioned the DataTrek outline of stock market results. They speculated that, since a new president takes office four months into a federal budget year, […]


Men

Author: David R. Kotok, Post Date: November 1, 2020

Market-Commentary-Cumberland-Advisors-David-Sunday-Men On October 18, we dedicated our Sunday morning missive to women. (See “Women,” https://www.cumber.com/cumberland-advisors-market-commentary-women/.) Men may not fall into that gender category, but they are part of the group that made that gender possible. So, this October blue moon, micro-moon, Halloween weekend, Sunday missive is about men. Please note that the majority of the politicians […]


60/40 is not dead yet

Author: David R. Kotok, Post Date: October 29, 2020

Market Commentary - Cumberland Advisors - 60-40 is not dead yet

“The 60% stock/40% bond portfolio is largely a relic of the past, with alternatives likely to become a bigger portion of investors’ portfolios over the next decade, asset management chiefs said during a panel discussion at the Milken Global Institute Conference on Wednesday.” (“The 60/40 Portfolio Is Dead. Here’s What Will Replace It,” https://www.barrons.com/articles/the-60-40-portfolio-is-dead-heres-what-will-replace-it-51602757800) We disagree […]


Q&A with Christopher Whalen

Author: David R. Kotok, Post Date: October 27, 2020

Market Commentary - Cumberland Advisors - Q&A with Chris Whalen

Christopher Whalen is a longtime friend and confidant, so this interview with him inevitably reflects the sorts of biases that result from engaging, enlightening conversations over many years. Many know Chris from TV appearances or press quotes or social media commentary. Others may know his three successful books: Inflated: How Money and Debt Built the […]


Florida: Desantis, Disease, Deaths, Schools

Author: David R. Kotok, Post Date: October 25, 2020

David-Kotok-Quote-Florida - Desantis, Disease, Deaths, Schools v2-2020 The DeSantis administration’s official COVID-19 track record in Florida shows more than 840,000 confirmed COVID-19 disease cases and 16,470 dead among Florida residents as of Thursday, October 22 (https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/us-map). We have only crude estimates of how many people may have caught the SARS-CoV-2 virus in Florida and taken it with them to someplace else. Ron […]


Qingdao, Canada, and Florida

Author: David R. Kotok, Post Date: October 22, 2020

David R. Kotok

Readers can compare for themselves. In Qingdao, China, just a dozen new cases of COVID-19 triggered the testing of the city’s entire population – that’s nine million tests in just five days. Sickness and death are being held tightly in check and so is damage to economic growth. (“China’s Beer Capital to Test Entire Population for […]

Taxes

Author: David R. Kotok, Post Date: October 21, 2020

Market Commentary - Cumberland Advisors - Taxes

There are several policy areas where the differences between Biden and Trump are huge. Climate change policy is one of them, and we have discussed that in the past. Another is taxes. Essentially, Biden promises he will raise taxation in many ways, with the increases falling on businesses and on Americans with taxable incomes of $400,000 per […]


Where Do We Stand Now?

Author: Robert Eisenbeis, Ph.D., Post Date: October 20, 2020

Two key issues in the upcoming election are jobs and the economy. Given their importance, it is appropriate to review exactly where we are on these issues. Both the economy and the job situation have been radically impacted by the COVID-19 pandemic. In the first quarter of 2020, real GDP declined at an annual rate […]

Cumberland Advisors Market Commentary – China and Wall Street – Decoupling or Linking?

Author: Bill Witherell, Ph.D., Post Date: October 19, 2020

China and Wall Street – Decoupling or Linking by William Witherell, Ph.D

For at least three decades, under both Republican and Democratic administrations, the United States has urged China to open up its financial markets to foreign capital and foreign financial firms. However, as part of a broader strategy to decouple relationships with China, President Donald Trump’s administration appears to want global financial firms to pull back […]


Women

Author: David R. Kotok, Post Date:

Market-Commentary-Cumberland-Advisors-David-Sunday-Women

The facts are becoming undeniably clearer. Labor force data confirms them. Anyone who wishes to dispute this claim may offer evidence to the contrary, but we won’t bog down this Sunday morning commentary with charts and links. There are about 25 million to 30 million Americans (out of a labor force of 160 million) who are in […]


Insider Trading – the Case of Consumer Discretionary

Author: Leo Chen, Ph.D., Post Date: October 15, 2020

Leo Chen, Ph.D.

We have recently published two commentaries regarding insider trading. You may find them here: https://www.cumber.com/cumberland-advisors-market-commentary-insider-trading-the-case-of-energy/ & https://www.cumber.com/cumberland-advisors-market-commentary-insider-trading-what-does-it-tell-us/. As the third quarter has just come to an end, we want to pick the third-quarter winner, Consumer Discretionary, as our latest insider trading study. Please see Chart 1 below for the sector’s third-quarter sector performance. Consumer Discretionary […]


Yogi: “It aint over”

Author: David R. Kotok, Post Date: October 14, 2020

Market Commentary - Cumberland Advisors - Yogi “It aint over”

“It aint over till its over” is exactly how Yogi Berra signed this ball when I bought it at a charity auction decades ago. He did put a dot over each lower case i. He didn’t use an apostrophe in ain’t, nor in it’s, and he did use till instead of until. Yogi’s message is […]


Links to other websites or electronic media controlled or offered by Third-Parties (non-affiliates of Cumberland Advisors) are provided only as a reference and courtesy to our users. Cumberland Advisors has no control over such websites, does not recommend or endorse any opinions, ideas, products, information, or content of such sites, and makes no warranties as to the accuracy, completeness, reliability or suitability of their content. Cumberland Advisors hereby disclaims liability for any information, materials, products or services posted or offered at any of the Third-Party websites. The Third-Party may have a privacy and/or security policy different from that of Cumberland Advisors. Therefore, please refer to the specific privacy and security policies of the Third-Party when accessing their websites.

Sign up for our FREE Cumberland Market Commentaries

Cumberland Advisors Market Commentaries offer insights and analysis on upcoming, important economic issues that potentially impact global financial markets. Our team shares their thinking on global economic developments, market news and other factors that often influence investment opportunities and strategies.