Cumberland Advisors Week in Review (Nov 09, 2020 – Nov 13, 2020)

Author: Cumberland Advisors, Post Date: November 14, 2020
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The Cumberland Advisors Week in Review is a recap of news, commentary, and opinion from our team.Week In Review

These are not revised assessments, and circumstances may have changed in the market from the time of original publication. We also include older commentaries that our editors have determined may be of interest to our audience. Your feedback is always welcome.

CUMBERLAND ADVISORS’ WEEKLY RECAP

As part of Cumberland Advisors’ continuous effort to maintain strong customer relationships, we offer this week’s short video discussing current market conditions and how we are positioning portfolios.

Thank you for joining Cumberland Advisors for this end-of-week update on market conditions, bonds & equities with Matt McAleer and John Mousseau, CFA

John Mousseau & Fixed Income / Munis
-This week, bond yields up
-COVID vaccine caused a bit of euphoria on Monday
-Muni Yields? No change this week.
-Little muni supply, we don’t expect much the rest of the year
-We expect supply to increase next year
-Expected election outcome looks favorable to munis
-Next week? We’ll keep an eye on key indicators. Without stimulus, a potential for economic slowdown persists.Matt McAleer & Equities / ETFs
-Lot of “nice” volatility this week
-Plenty of demand in small and mid-cap space – a continuing theme
-Some rotation from large to small and from growth to value
-This week, NASDAQ 100 down, Russel 2000 up 6%, S&P up 2% – something to keep an eye on.
-Large cap growth has been so dominant for the last 5 years that you can get into a way of thinking in terms of allocation that money will always follow what’s working
-I have a chart to share with you and what it means
-Next week, 2 weeks from now, 3 weeks from now, will give us a lot information in terms of what this market will do in the next 60-90 days.
-Really nice performance coming out of multiple indexes and multiple sectors.
Please reach out with any questions/comments you may have about this update; we appreciate your calls, comments, and emails. Watch in the player above or at this link: https://youtu.be/mCxwHpOS_Z4

 

Mark you calendars for Tuesday, November 17, 2020 between Noon and 1:30 pm for a lively and informative virtual discussion on “Post-Election Financial Markets” with a panel of professionals from the University of South Florida Sarasota-Manatee campus and Cumberland Advisors. John and I will be featured panelists along with others from our firm including David R. Kotok, Robert A. Eisenbeis, PhD, Patricia M. Healy, CFA, Bill Witherell, PhD, and Leo Chen, PhD.

Post-Election Financial Markets

More info: https://www.sarasotamanatee.usf.edu/events/post-election-financial-markets.aspx

Stay safe, healthy, and have a great weekend.

-Matt McAleer & Cumberland Advisors

Matt enjoys your feedback. You can reach him at:
-Link to Matt’s Email: Matthew.McAleer@Cumber.com
-Link to Matt’s Twitter: https://twitter.com/MattMcAleer4
-Link to Matt’s LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/matthew-c-mcaleer/
-Call Matt: (800) 257-7013

Other questions or comments? Email us at info@cumber.com or give us a call at (800) 257-7013.

Contact Matt or any one of our advisors by following this link: https://www.cumber.com/our-people/


Cumberland Advisors In The News

Sarasota Herald-Tribune mentions Cumberland Advisors
Financial experts, USF faculty to host discussion about post-election financial markets
November 13, 2020

Financial experts from USF’s Muma College of Business and Sarasota-based Cumberland Advisors will host a special discussion on Tuesday from noon to 1:30 p.m. to help investors better understand the presidential election’s impact on financial markets and the economy.

The 90-minute “Post-Election Financial Markets” webinar is free and open to the public. Register at sarasotamanatee.usf.edu/postelection. The event will be comprised of three panel discussions followed by a Q&A session.

More: https://www.heraldtribune.com/story/news/local/2020/11/13/usf-host-discussion-post-election-financial-markets/6277151002/


Washington Post quotes David R. Kotok
Voters choose Biden to rebuild U.S. economy battered by
pandemic

November 07, 2020

President-elect Joe Biden overcame President Trump’s attempt to ride a record economic rebound to reelection, as voters showed more concern for the troubled economy’s future than appreciation for its pre-coronavirus past.

Trade war and tariffs reversed much of Trump’s first two years in economic growth,” David Kotok, chief investment officer for Cumberland Advisors, wrote in an email.

Trump’s trade war also may have hurt him in the politically crucial industrial Midwest. States that rely on imported parts from China, such as Michigan, were especially hit hard by the tariffs on Chinese products that the president imposed in 2018, according to a new study by the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/2020/11/07/us-economy-biden-election/


The Philadelphia Inquirer quotes David R. Kotok
Wall St. betting on Biden win, GOP Senate, smaller stimulus
November 05, 2020

Muni bonds: “As the economy improves and we get to a vaccine, we should see higher (interest) rates no matter who is finally elected President,” wrote David Kotok, municipal bond and fixed income investor with Cumberland Advisors. For now, however, interest rates remain low.

“Munis should be fine,” he wrote, although these bonds “will probably not get a tax-increase boost right away, from a demand/supply standpoint they are in very good shape.”

Until a second stimulus bill passes Congress, “we may see some additional actions from the Federal Reserve to shore up markets if needed. We also expect further jawboning from the Fed to Congress on the importance of additional stimulus.”
https://www.fa-mag.com/news/california-s-boom-collapses-with-fires-adding–1-1-billion-toll-58482.html


Bloomberg Markets
P&L Podcast interviews David R. Kotok
November 04, 2020

David Kotok, Chairman & Chief Investment Officer at Cumberland Advisors, on bond markets and his current election outlook. Danielle DiMartino Booth, CEO and Chief Strategist for Quill Intelligence LLC, former adviser to the Dallas Fed, discusses how the election has impacted her outlook for the economy, and a preview of the FOMC. Timothy O’Brien, Senior Columnist for Bloomberg Opinion, on the election results. Hosted by Paul Sweeney and Vonnie Quinn.

https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/no-plausible-legal-grounds-to-contest-election-levitt/id326301337?i=1000497237365


University of South Florida Foundation recognizes grant from David R. Kotok and Christine Schlesinger
Donation to USF will support new training program for nurses during COVID-19
November 13, 2020

The University of South Florida Foundation has received a generous $57,000 donation from Sarasota businessman David Kotok and his partner Christine Schlesinger to support the development and delivery of a new continuing education training program by the USF Health College of Nursing. The program will help nurses stay safe while treating patients during the COVID-19 pandemic.

The four-part educational series, “Frontline Nursing During COVID-19: A New Paradigm,” will be offered virtually to nurses locally, statewide, and nationally starting in early February.

Kotok said he was inspired to work with USF on this unique program after listening to a presentation by Usha Menon, interim dean of the College of Nursing, during a recent Sarasota-Manatee campus virtual event hosted by Regional Chancellor Karen Holbrook.

https://www.sarasotamanatee.usf.edu/news/2020/donation-to-usf-will-support-new-training-program-for-nurses-during-covid.aspx


Cumberland Advisors Market Commentary

Cumberland Advisors Market Commentary offers insights and analysis on upcoming, important economic issues that potentially impact global financial markets. Our team shares their thinking on global economic developments, market news and other factors that often influence investment opportunities and strategies. Our readers appreciate its timeliness, depth of analysis, and quality of research.

To read current and past commentaries, visit https://www.cumber.com/category/market-commentary/


Municipal Employment

Author: Patricia Healy, CFA, Post Date: November 12, 2020

Market Commentary - Cumberland Advisors - Municipal Employment - Patricia Healy, CFAThe positive jobs growth news, showing an increase of 638,000 jobs in October and a full one percent reduction in the unemployment rate to 6.9%, masked a decline in government employment. Private jobs were up by 906,000, led by an increase of 271,000 in hospitality and leisure, a sector that has been hit particularly hard […]


11-11-11

Author: David R. Kotok, Post Date: November 11, 2020

Field-of-poppies-blooming-red-1280x720

On November 11, 1918, President Woodrow Wilson signed the agreement that ended the fighting in World War 1, a conflict that engulfed 30 nations and cost millions of lives (estimates vary). In June of 1919, the Treaty of Versailles would attempt to forge the terms of the peace. Months later, on November 11, 1919, Wilson […]


Singles’ Day and Alibaba

Author: Leo Chen, Ph.D., Post Date: November 10, 2020

Market Commentary - Cumberland Advisors - Singles’ Day and Alibaba (Leo Chen)

November 11 is Singles’ Day in China. It is an unofficial shopping holiday that was started by Alibaba in 2009. It is called Singles’ Day because the repeated number “1” in “11.11” refers to single people in Chinese. Although Singles’ Day is often compared to Black Friday in the US, it is actually more similar […]


China Update – Ant Versus the State

Author: William Witherell, Ph.D., Post Date: November 9, 2020

Cumberland Advisors Market Commentary by William "Bill" Witherell, Ph.D.

Last week, the Ant Group was expected to list in Shanghai and Hong Kong the largest IPO in history. However, on Tuesday, November 3, the Shanghai Stock Exchange announced it had postponed the company’s listing, citing “major issues” that might cause it “not to meet the listing conditions or disclosure requirements.” The IPO listing was […]


Hurricane Roxcy or Hurricane Bob?

Author: , Post Date: November 8, 2020
Hurricane Roxcy or Hurricane Bob

 

“Biden’s proposals to increase taxes on the wealthy and corporations – not to mention a $2 trillion plan to fight climate change – would stand virtually no chance in a Mitch McConnell-led Republican Senate” (https://www.bloomberg.com/news/newsletters/2020-11-05/a-biden-agenda-might-stall-before-it-starts).  Let’s devote Sunday to the climate. Climate change is a big agenda item for Biden & Co. But a gridlocked […]


Electoral College Timeline

Author: David R. Kotok, Post Date: November 6, 2020

Here’s the link to the Congressional Research Service report on the Electoral College timeline. Hat tip Politico. https://crsreports.congress.gov/product/pdf/IF/IF11641 David R. Kotok Chairman of the Board & Chief Investment Officer Email | Bio Links to other websites or electronic media controlled or offered by Third-Parties (non-affiliates of Cumberland Advisors) are provided only as a reference and […]


Wave Bye to Blue Wave – Bonds

Author: John R. Mousseau, CFA, Post Date: November 4, 2020

Market Commentary - Cumberland Advisors - Wave Bye to Blue Wave – Bonds

Though we are still sorting out last night’s election, the so-called “blue wave” of a Democratic sweep of the White House, Senate, and House of Representatives didn’t happen. At this hour, the White House is still not decided; it appears the Senate will NOT switch and will stay Republican; and the Republicans made a few […]


Yogi Response

Author: , Post Date: November 2, 2020

Market Commentary - Cumberland Advisors - Yogi ResponseCommentaries regularly create opportunities to broaden the conversation with readers. A number of readers responded to my take on the election, “Yogi: It Aint Over,” posted on October 14 (https://www.cumber.com/yogi-it-aint-over/). Some readers questioned the DataTrek outline of stock market results. They speculated that, since a new president takes office four months into a federal budget year, […]


Men

Author: David R. Kotok, Post Date: November 1, 2020

Market-Commentary-Cumberland-Advisors-David-Sunday-MenOn October 18, we dedicated our Sunday morning missive to women. (See “Women,” https://www.cumber.com/cumberland-advisors-market-commentary-women/.) Men may not fall into that gender category, but they are part of the group that made that gender possible. So, this October blue moon, micro-moon, Halloween weekend, Sunday missive is about men. Please note that the majority of the politicians […]


60/40 is not dead yet

Author: David R. Kotok, Post Date: October 29, 2020

Market Commentary - Cumberland Advisors - 60-40 is not dead yet

“The 60% stock/40% bond portfolio is largely a relic of the past, with alternatives likely to become a bigger portion of investors’ portfolios over the next decade, asset management chiefs said during a panel discussion at the Milken Global Institute Conference on Wednesday.” (“The 60/40 Portfolio Is Dead. Here’s What Will Replace It,” https://www.barrons.com/articles/the-60-40-portfolio-is-dead-heres-what-will-replace-it-51602757800) We disagree […]


Q&A with Christopher Whalen

Author: David R. Kotok, Post Date: October 27, 2020

Market Commentary - Cumberland Advisors - Q&A with Chris Whalen

Christopher Whalen is a longtime friend and confidant, so this interview with him inevitably reflects the sorts of biases that result from engaging, enlightening conversations over many years. Many know Chris from TV appearances or press quotes or social media commentary. Others may know his three successful books: Inflated: How Money and Debt Built the […]


Post-Election Financial Markets

Tuesday, Nov. 17, 2020
Noon to 1:30 p.m.
Via Microsoft Teams

Join us for a lively and informative virtual discussion on Post-Election Financial Markets with a panel of experts from the University of South Florida Sarasota-Manatee campus and Cumberland Advisors.

Free Registration


Links to other websites or electronic media controlled or offered by Third-Parties (non-affiliates of Cumberland Advisors) are provided only as a reference and courtesy to our users. Cumberland Advisors has no control over such websites, does not recommend or endorse any opinions, ideas, products, information, or content of such sites, and makes no warranties as to the accuracy, completeness, reliability or suitability of their content. Cumberland Advisors hereby disclaims liability for any information, materials, products or services posted or offered at any of the Third-Party websites. The Third-Party may have a privacy and/or security policy different from that of Cumberland Advisors. Therefore, please refer to the specific privacy and security policies of the Third-Party when accessing their websites.

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Cumberland Advisors Market Commentaries offer insights and analysis on upcoming, important economic issues that potentially impact global financial markets. Our team shares their thinking on global economic developments, market news and other factors that often influence investment opportunities and strategies.

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Cumberland Advisors® is registered with the SEC under the Investment Advisers Act of 1940. All information contained herein is for informational purposes only and does not constitute a solicitation or offer to sell securities or investment advisory services. Such an offer can only be made in the states where Cumberland Advisors is either registered or is a Notice Filer or where an exemption from such registration or filing is available. New accounts will not be accepted unless and until all local regulations have been satisfied. This presentation does not purport to be a complete description of our performance or investment services. Please feel free to forward our commentaries (with proper attribution) to others who may be interested. It is not our intention to state or imply in any manner that past results and profitability is an indication of future performance. All material presented is compiled from sources believed to be reliable. However, accuracy cannot be guaranteed.
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