Cumberland Advisors Week in Review (Nov 30, 2020 – Dec 04, 2020)

Author: Cumberland Advisors, Post Date: December 5, 2020
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The Cumberland Advisors Week in Review is a recap of news, commentary, and opinion from our team.Week In Review

These are not revised assessments, and circumstances may have changed in the market from the time of original publication. We also include older commentaries that our editors have determined may be of interest to our audience. Your feedback is always welcome.

CUMBERLAND ADVISORS’ WEEKLY RECAP

As part of Cumberland Advisors’ continuous effort to maintain strong customer relationships, we offer this week’s short video discussing current market conditions and how we are positioning portfolios.

Matt McAleer & Equities / ETFs
-Indexes very, very strong
-What was the “tell” or “tells” for market action this week?
–Expanding breath – more sectors, more industries getting into the game
–The Russell 2000 Index up 3x the S&P 500 last 90 days
–The S&P 500, respectable 7% return over the last 90 days
–The Russell 2000 Index at 22% over the last 90 days
–Capital coming into the market was looking for areas that hadn’t participated previously
–This goes to the heart of how poorly positioned large baskets of capital were coming into this election
–Very difficult to fight headlines- we try to ignore or only pay attention to the reaction to them
—COVID & Election headlines cause money to leave the market
–Recall the iShares chart we previously highlighted in September demonstrated less than 5% of inflows went into equities
–That’s a paltry amount in terms of flow
-Let talk about a new chart that shows the NY Stock Exchange high/low index (I explain in video)
-The coming vaccines and loose Fed policy have finally resulted in rates coming up
-There’s some more confidence now in the economy and new year

John Mousseau & Fixed Income / Munis
-Bond Market- yields higher this week
-We saw a non-farm payroll increase this week, less than expected
-We know November numbers were bad, we saw increase in COVID-19 in many places
-What was surprising? Bond Market reaction sending bond prices lower and yields higher
-COVID-19 has gone from an unknown to a known
-Munis? Unchanged for the week.
-In the muni world, the market is already discounting the fact that it’s going to be winding down very soon. Supply has picked up a little bit but it will be gone in a couple of weeks and we have two big months of reinvestment, December & January, ahead of us.
-One more thing- when you look at the future, it’s looking more and more like we’re going to have split government, so the market is feeling pretty good that the status quo will probably be what you see with probably marginal tax rates and that’s it.
-We put out a new commentary this week titled “The Cumberland State of Despair Index.” It tries to capture the despair caused by unemployment brought on by the pandemic & COVID-19 infection rates on a state-by-state basis. This Index will be applied as a variable in our credit-scoring model.
-Read it here: https://www.cumber.com/cumberland-advisors-market-commentary-the-cumberland-state-of-despair-index/

The Cumberland State of Despair Index

Please reach out with any questions/comments you may have about this update; we appreciate your calls, comments, and emails. Watch in the player above or at this link: https://youtu.be/pKvdE9S8ja8


-Matt McAleer & Cumberland Advisors

Send your feedback from today’s email/video to Matt. You can reach him at:
-Link to Matt’s Email: Matthew.McAleer@Cumber.com
-Link to Matt’s Twitter: https://twitter.com/MattMcAleer4
-Link to Matt’s LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/matthew-c-mcaleer/
-Call Matt: (800) 257-7013Other questions or comments? Email us at info@cumber.com or give us a call at (800) 257-7013.

Contact Matt or any one of our advisors by following this link: https://www.cumber.com/our-people/


The Role of Nurses – Complimentary Video Replay

Cumberland Advisors is an Annual Sponsor
of the Global Interdependence Center

The Role of NursesAbout the Briefing
The Role of Nurses is the theme of this Executive Briefing. Attendees are offered context and perspective regarding the critical role that nurses play in the response to COVID-19 as well as changes to the nursing curriculum as a result of the pandemic.

Presentation Documents & Video Replay Link from December 3, 2020
https://www.interdependence.org/events/browse/the-role-of-nurses/


CA In The NewsDavid R. Kotok quoted by Wall Street Journal & ETF Trends
Small-Cap ETFs Could Benefit from Greater M&A Activity Ahead
by Max Chen December 4, 2020

U.S. companies raised cash this year after issuing record-breaking amounts of debt to strengthen their balance sheets in response to the Covid-19 pandemic disruptions on their normal operations. As of Nov. 30, U.S. companies issued over $2 trillion of investment-grade and high-yield bonds, the most on record in data going back to 2006. Meanwhile, many cut back on repurchases, dividends or capital expenditures given the uncertain market environment.

Furthermore, many anticipate companies to take advantage of this lower-for-longer interest rate environment to maintain high leverage to support growth ahead.

“It doesn’t make sense for cash-laden companies to pay down debt in this interest-rate climate,” David Kotok, chief investment officer at Cumberland Advisors, told the WSJ. “That cash is going to be put to more shareholder-friendly uses.”

For example, some expect companies to engage in more mergers and acquisitions. M&A activity remains historically depressed for the fourth quarter, revealing many companies remain hesitant to chase after big purchases. As of Monday, about $313 billion in acquisitions in the U.S. have been announced for the fourth quarter, the lowest amount for the period since 2013.

Read the full article here: https://www.etftrends.com/equity-etf-channel/small-cap-etfs-could-benefit-from-greater-ma-activity-ahead/

Or the Wall Street Journal here (paywall): https://www.wsj.com/articles/investors-circle-largest-corporate-cash-hoard-ever-11607086917


Cumberland Advisors Market Commentary

Cumberland Advisors Market Commentary offers insights and analysis on upcoming, important economic issues that potentially impact global financial markets. Our team shares their thinking on global economic developments, market news and other factors that often influence investment opportunities and strategies. Our readers appreciate its timeliness, depth of analysis, and quality of research.

To read current and past commentaries, visit https://www.cumber.com/category/market-commentary/


Interest Rates and Yield Curve Control, Part 4

Author: David R. Kotok, Post Date: December 4, 2020

Market Commentary - Cumberland Advisors - Interest Rates and Yield Curve Control, Part 4

In Part 4 of our series on interest rates and yield curve control, we will examine two charts and two related tables to help explain yield curve control and implications for the Treasurys market. The first three parts are available here: Part 1, https://www.cumber.com/cumberland-advisors-market-commentary-interest-rates-and-yield-curve-control-part-1/ Part 2, https://www.cumber.com/cumberland-advisors-market-commentary-interest-rates-and-yield-curve-control-part-2/ Part 3, https://www.cumber.com/cumberland-advisors-market-commentary-interest-rates-and-yield-curve-control-part-3/. The first chart and table […]


The Cumberland State of Despair Index

Author: John R. Mousseau, CFA & Patricia Healy, CFA & Tom Patterson, Post Date: December 3, 2020

Market Commentary - Cumberland Advisors - The Cumberland State of Despair Index (Mousseau & Healy + Patterson)

The Cumberland State of Despair Index tries to capture the despair caused by unemployment brought on by the pandemic and COVID-19 infection rates on a state-by-state basis. This State of Despair Index will be applied as a variable in our credit-scoring model.


Decision Time for the UK and Europe

Author: William Witherell, Ph.D., Post Date: December 2, 2020

Market Commentary - Cumberland Advisors - Decision Time for the UK and Europe by William Witherell, Ph.D

Time is running out for the UK and Europe to reach an agreement on the terms under which the UK will leave the European Union (EU) at year end. Also, the member countries of the European Union have yet to reach final agreement on a much-needed, massive additional fiscal stimulus package. The substance and timing […]


Not As It Seems

Author: Robert Eisenbeis, Ph.D., Post Date: December 1, 2020

Cumberland Advisors Market Commentary - Not As It Seems (Eisenbeis)

On November 19, Treasury Secretary Mnuchin sent a letter to the Federal Reserve Board requesting a 90-day extension of several Fed programs to provide liquidity to financial markets, including the Commercial Paper Funding Facility, the Primary Dealer Credit Facility, the Money Market Liquidity Facility, and the Paycheck Protection Liquidity Facility. Those programs were backstopped by […]


Fed’s Path; also Why Barbell, Not Ladder

Author: David R. Kotok, Post Date: November 30, 2020

Fed's Path- also Why Barbell, Not Ladder

The Federal Reserve has grunted out small noises about maybe some future peeling back on the QE. Many analysts have dissected the Fed’s words and offered opinions. A warning for investors: “Watch what they do and not what they say.”


ESG Investing, Arctic Ice & Derek Riley (story at the end)

Author: David R. Kotok, Post Date: November 29, 2020

Market-Commentary-Cumberland-Advisors-David-Sunday-ESG investing, Arctic Ice & Derek Riley We expect the new Biden administration to reverse on a massive scale Trump’s deregulation of energy and to turn strongly to sustainable-energy policy. The implications for investing in ESG are huge. Cumberland holds positions in wind, solar and water and we expect to hold those positions for a long cycle of growth. Markets are already […]


Fed Vacancies – the Dilemma As of 11/23/2020

Author: Robert Eisenbeis, Ph.D., Post Date: November 23, 2020

Federal Reserve Building

As the Biden administration begins to float the names of potential cabinet members, an interesting scenario and potential dilemma faces the Federal Reserve Board. Normally, there are seven members of the Federal Reserve Board, but at present there are only five, with two vacant positions. One vacancy has existed since March 2014 when Sarah Bloom […]


The Ballet

Author: David R. Kotok, Post Date: November 22, 2020

Market-Commentary-Cumberland-Advisors-David-Sunday-The-BalletMy friend Steve sent this terrific musical dance video. Enjoy. Please notice how deeply you see ballet training in so many of the dancers we recognize.   Here it is: https://youtu.be/GC9tnARzIbU     The second time I watched it, I thought more particularly about ballet and, then, memories of performances unfurled in my mind. With […]


COVID, COVID, COVID! Recovery?

Author: David R. Kotok, Post Date: November 20, 2020

Cumberland Advisors Market Commentary - COVID, COVID, COVID! Recovery

A Bleak Short-Term COVID Outlook, Then Recovery Dawns Fact is, during the darkest hours before light breaks, dawn is already racing toward us across the surface of the turning world. That’s an image – a reassuring metaphor – that can sustain us now. America’s darkest hours in the COVID-19 pandemic lie just ahead, over the […]


Hurricanes, Bob Bunting, CAC

Author: Bob Bunting, Post Date: November 18, 2020

Bob Bunting - CEO, Climate Adaptation Center (CAC)

Municipal bond ratings are affected by the preparedness of the issuers for severe weather, the impacts of climate change, and other factors that may affect credit ratings. Cumberland Advisors takes a keen interest in the micro and macro details surrounding municipalities and weather events. Our colleague Bob Bunting, meteorologist, professor, and former executive at both […]


Will the NASDAQ Crash? Also: Helping Nurses!

Author: David R. Kotok, Post Date: November 16, 2020

Market Commentary - Cumberland Advisors - Will the NASDAQ Crash? - Also Helping Nurses!

Will the NASDAQ crash? We get that question often. Here’s a Bloomberg discussion on that subject and a Bloomberg chart comparing the NASDAQ bubble 20 years ago with the NASDAQ spike this year: “Nasdaq-100 Stumbles Near Dot-Com Era Record Versus Dow,” https://theonedave.tumblr.com/post/634605567333236737/nasdaq-100-stumbles-near-dot-com-era-record-versus. And here’s a Cumberland commentary we wrote at the peak of the NASDAQ […]


CA In The NewsDavid R. Kotok mentioned in nursing education article.
USF receives donation to support new training program for nurses during COVID-19
Sarasota Herald-Tribune – Dec 01, 2020

Excerpt below:

The University of South Florida Foundation has received a $57,000 donation from Sarasota businessman David Kotok and his partner Christine Schlesinger to support the development and delivery of a new continuing education training program by the USF Health College of Nursing.

The program will help nurses stay safe while treating patients during the COVID-19 pandemic.

The four-part educational series, “Frontline Nursing During COVID-19: A New Paradigm,” will be offered virtually to nurses locally, statewide, and nationally starting in early February.

Read full story here: https://www.heraldtribune.com/story/news/local/2020/12/01/donation-usf-support-new-training-program-for-nurses-during-covid-19/6477738002/


David R. Kotok Interviewed – Reviving Immigration Is Key To U.S. Turnaround
Nov 24, 2020 – Hosted by Paul Sweeney and Vonnie Quinn at Bloomberg Radio
Radio Player Banner - Listen Now
David R. Kotok, Chairman & Chief Investment Officer at Cumberland Advisors, on immigration, the Fed, Yellen as Treasury pick, and outlook for markets.

“Markets, as we see it, are looking beyond next spring. Its the classic 6 or 9 months forward looking, post-vaccine recovery. And you see some forecasts of the roaring 2020s…”

David R. Kotok (Radio)

Listen here: https://www.bloomberg.com/news/audio/2020-11-24/reviving-immigration-is-key-to-u-s-turnaround-kotok-radio


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Cumberland Advisors Market Commentaries offer insights and analysis on upcoming, important economic issues that potentially impact global financial markets. Our team shares their thinking on global economic developments, market news and other factors that often influence investment opportunities and strategies.

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Cumberland Advisors® is registered with the SEC under the Investment Advisers Act of 1940. All information contained herein is for informational purposes only and does not constitute a solicitation or offer to sell securities or investment advisory services. Such an offer can only be made in the states where Cumberland Advisors is either registered or is a Notice Filer or where an exemption from such registration or filing is available. New accounts will not be accepted unless and until all local regulations have been satisfied. This presentation does not purport to be a complete description of our performance or investment services. Please feel free to forward our commentaries (with proper attribution) to others who may be interested. It is not our intention to state or imply in any manner that past results and profitability is an indication of future performance. All material presented is compiled from sources believed to be reliable. However, accuracy cannot be guaranteed.
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