Cumberland Advisors Week in Review (Oct 05, 2020 – Oct 09, 2020)

Author: Cumberland Advisors, Post Date: October 8, 2020
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The Cumberland Advisors Week in Review is a recap of news, commentary, and opinion from our team.

Week In Review

These are not revised assessments, and circumstances may have changed in the market from the time of original publication. We also include older commentaries that our editors have determined may be of interest to our audience. Your feedback is always welcome.

CUMBERLAND ADVISORS’ WEEKLY RECAP

As part of Cumberland Advisors’ continuous effort to maintain strong customer relationships, we offer this week’s short video discussing current market conditions and how we are positioning portfolios.

Dear Clients & Friends,

Thank you for joining Cumberland Advisors for this end-of-week update on market conditions, bonds & equities with Matt McAleer and John Mousseau, CFA.

Matt McAleer & Equities / ETFs
– Wow! Cavalry charge in the equity market!
– Let’s talk about the market as discounting mechanism
– Charts to share today
– Chart 1 – A Factor Chart and what we can take away from the data
– Russell 2000 – the 2000 smallest names out of the Russell 3000, a broad index covering most of our US Equity Market
– The Russell 2000 up 6 1/2% this week is very encouraging
– We hear over and over that the market is expensive, let’s talk about that
– Chart 2 – Relative Strength and Alternative Energy
– We’ve found some ways to play in this space where Alternative Energy is outperforming the S&P 500, hat tip to David Kotok, our CIO
-The Moose is celebrating his 20th year at Cumberland Advisors!

 

John Mousseau & Fixed Income / Munis
– This week Treasury Yields moved up again
– We think that some clarity and sentiment around the expected election outcome is leading to higher interest rates over time
– This isn’t dramatic, just removing some of the pall hanging over the market
– This fall we’ll see rollover money in the market come into play and we expect that
– Jobless claims not surprising
– We see CPI, PPI coming up
– Corporate spreads came in a little bit this week
– Fixed Income Markets grudgingly moving higher, we think it’s good in the long run for fixed income investors because higher interest rates, as long as they’re manageable over time, lead to higher reinvestment rates. And that’s a good thing.

 

Please reach out with any questions/comments you may have about this update; we appreciate your calls, comments, and emails. Watch in the player above or at this link: https://youtu.be/y5CeDWIQ1ZQ

 

Stay safe, healthy, and have a great weekend.

-Matt McAleer & Cumberland Advisors

Matt enjoys your feedback. You can reach him at:
-Link to Matt’s Email: Matthew.McAleer@Cumber.com
-Link to Matt’s Twitter: https://twitter.com/MattMcAleer4
-Link to Matt’s LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/matthew-c-mcaleer/
-Call Matt: (800) 257-7013

Other questions or comments? Email us at info@cumber.com or give us a call at (800) 257-7013.

Contact Matt or any one of our advisors by following this link: https://www.cumber.com/our-people/

 


Cumberland Advisors Market Commentary

Cumberland Advisors Market Commentary offers insights and analysis on upcoming, important economic issues that potentially impact global financial markets. Our team shares their thinking on global economic developments, market news and other factors that often influence investment opportunities and strategies. Our readers appreciate its timeliness, depth of analysis, and quality of research.

To read current and past commentaries, visit https://www.cumber.com/category/market-commentary/


Wildfires Out West

Author: Patricia Healy, CFA, Post Date: October 8, 2020

Patricia Healy, CFA

On Sunday, Bloomberg reported that this year’s California fires had scorched more ground than the last three years of fires combined. Higher temperatures and greater winds have contributed to the spread. Year-to-date, the California fires have covered 4 million acres in 8,200 fires throughout the state. Some 8,400 homes and buildings have been lost, and […]


Markets, Events, Economics

Author: David R. Kotok, Post Date: October 7, 2020

David R. Kotok

Market-moving events and data points are coming fast, and in a chaotic sequence. Here are some bullets we are watching. 1. The outlook for elections is still highly uncertain and volatile. Biden appears to be strengthening. Texas governor Greg Abbott has restricted drop boxes for absentee ballots to one per county (“Texas governor shuts down drop-off […]


Muni Bonds Turn Toward the Election

Author: John R. Mousseau, CFA, Post Date: October 6, 2020

Market Commentary - Cumberland Advisors - (Mousseau)

With the presidential election a month away, we start to mull over what the bond market might look like post-election day. While most polls have Vice-President Biden ahead by 6–7% points, we know the race has the potential to be much closer, since the 50 individual states decide the election by virtue of voting by […]


International Equity ETF Q3 Overview and Outlook

Author: William Witherell, Ph.D., Post Date: October 5, 2020

Market Commentary - Cumberland Advisors - William 'Bill' Witherell - International Equity ETF Q3 Overview and Outlook

The global economy is expected to have registered a stronger than anticipated rebound in the third quarter with record-breaking growth rates after output collapsed in the first half of the because of the COVID-19 pandemic. The reopening of businesses and the easing of lockdowns and other restrictions in many countries allowed the rapid pickup in […]


Trio to Trio with Laura Wazen

Author: David R. Kotok, Post Date: October 4, 2020

We have a medley of remarkable performances for you this Sunday – a little diversion from the daily political and pandemic fare. Let’s kick things off with a rousing flash-mob rendition of Beethoven’s Symphony No. 9, Ode to Joy, performed years before COVID-19 entered our lives. It lifts us now out of this moment and […]


Hope – An Update

Author: Robert Eisenbeis, Ph.D., Post Date: October 2, 2020

Cumberland Advisors Market Commentary - Hope – An Update - Robert-Eisenbeis, Ph.D.

Our commentary “FOMC: Hope Now Seems to Be a Strategy” (https://www.cumber.com/cumberland-advisors-market-commentary-fomc-hope-now-seems-to-be-a-strategy/) focused on the FOMC’s latest decision to keep its target for the federal funds rate between 0–.25%, to change its strategy for policy going forward to focus on shortfalls in labor markets from what the Committee perceives to be full employment, and to shift [Continued…]


Taxable Total Return 3rd Quarter Review

Author: Daniel Himelberger, Post Date: October 1, 2020

Cumberland Advisors Market Commentary - Taxable Total Return 3rd Quarter Review

Markets experienced volatility in the third quarter of 2020 as COVID-19 and the looming election continued to drive uncertainty regarding an economic rebound. The net result of the volatility left the Treasury market little changed on the quarter, while spreads on investment-grade corporates and taxable municipals continued to grind lower from the peaks set at [Continued…]


Beware of Private Equity in Retirement Plans – 3(38) Fiduciary Advisors Are Needed Instead

Author: Michael McNiven, Ph.D., Post Date: September 30, 2020

Cumberland Advisors Market Commentary - Michael McNiven, Ph.D.

Over the summer, the private equity industry received a very favorable ruling from the Department of Labor, allowing 401(k) plans to invest in private equity funds. Of course, the private equity industry and their lobbyists have long desired the opportunity to access 401(k) assets, and they are ecstatic. This opportunity opens up several trillion dollars [Continued…]


UK Facing Virus Second Wave and Brexit Deadline

Author: William Witherell, Ph.D., Post Date: September 29, 2020

Market Commentary - Cumberland Advisors - UK Facing Virus Second Wave and Brexit Deadline

United Kingdom stocks are underperforming the Eurozone markets as the nation faces the double challenges of an upsurge in virus infections and time running out in the deadlocked negotiations with the EU on Brexit. Over the past three months through September 24, the iShares MSCI United Kingdom ETF, EWU, lost 5.0% on a total return [Continued…]


CIO Overview & Outlook

Author: David R. Kotok, Post Date: September 28, 2020

David R. Kotok

The second quarter of 2020 saw the worst quarterly decline in economic terms since the Great Depression of the 1930s. The US economy literally fell off the COVID cliff. This downdraft side of a very sharp “V” has already made an economic bottom. (It was foretold by the March 23 low in the stock market.) [Continued…]


Three Super New Moons (#28)

Author: David R. Kotok, Post Date: September 27, 2020

Market Commentary - Cumberland Advisors - Three Super New Moons (#28)

Sentiment & Statistical Indicators +Three Super New Moons (Item #28) Some indicators offer guidance. None is perfect. All stimulate thinking. Here’s a sampling about economics, financial markets, health, climate, politics, and, yes, even a forecast from astrology. We’ve saved that for last (#28). 1. The misery index is a long-established statistic. It is simply adding [Continued…]


Cumberland Responds to Barron’s

Author: David R. Kotok, John R. Mousseau, CFA & Patricia Healy, CFA, Post Date: September 23, 2020

Cumberland Advisors Market Commentary - Cumberland Responds to Barron's

Many municipal entities are under extreme stress and federal help is needed now, or these entities will have to reduce staff, swelling the ranks of the unemployed across the nation and reducing municipal services at the very time that demands for those services are at record levels. [Continued…]


Wildfire: Correction and Addition

Author: David R. Kotok, Post Date: September 22, 2020

Cumberland Advisors Market Commentary - Wildfire Correction and Addition

In our recent commentary “Wildfire: More Than a Song” https://www.cumber.com/cumberland-advisors-market-commentary-wildfire-more-than-a-song/, we stated that our nation’s federally owned forests “are housed in the Department of the Interior.” That is true up to a point: The Bureau of Land Management (BLM), which is an arm of the Department of the Interior, does manage 246 million acres of [Continued…]


Trump and Puerto Rico. Better late than never.

Author: David R. Kotok, Post Date: September 21, 2020

Market Commentary Puerto Rico

With much fanfare, on Friday, Sept. 18, President Trump abruptly shifted his policy on rebuilding Puerto Rico. Where he had often disparaged the island’s leaders and opposed rebuilding a power grid and other infrastructure that was destroyed by Hurricane Maria in September 2017, Trump now claimed, “I’m the best thing that ever happened to Puerto [Continued…]


Zika Pamphlet by David R. Kotok

Zika Download - Kotok

The Zika virus is mosquito-borne. The virus mutates frequently, just as all viruses do. And it can do serious damage to people. It is especially threatening to the fetus of a pregnant mother. It causes conditions, including microcephaly, which spell tragedy for the infant and the family. When it deals such damage to children, Zika imposes huge societal costs measured in the many millions of dollars. All this is documented in the writings that now constitute the chapters of this pamphlet.

https://www.cumber.com/zika/


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Cumberland Advisors Market Commentaries offer insights and analysis on upcoming, important economic issues that potentially impact global financial markets. Our team shares their thinking on global economic developments, market news and other factors that often influence investment opportunities and strategies.

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Cumberland Advisors® is registered with the SEC under the Investment Advisers Act of 1940. All information contained herein is for informational purposes only and does not constitute a solicitation or offer to sell securities or investment advisory services. Such an offer can only be made in the states where Cumberland Advisors is either registered or is a Notice Filer or where an exemption from such registration or filing is available. New accounts will not be accepted unless and until all local regulations have been satisfied. This presentation does not purport to be a complete description of our performance or investment services. Please feel free to forward our commentaries (with proper attribution) to others who may be interested. It is not our intention to state or imply in any manner that past results and profitability is an indication of future performance. All material presented is compiled from sources believed to be reliable. However, accuracy cannot be guaranteed.
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