Cumberland Advisors Week in Review (Oct 07, 2019 – Oct 11, 2019)

Author: Cumberland Advisors, Post Date: October 12, 2019

The Cumberland Advisors Week in Review is a recap of news, commentary, and opinion from our team.

Week In Review

These are not revised assessments, and circumstances may have changed in the market from the time of original publication. We also include older commentaries that our editors have determined may be of interest to our audience. Your feedback is always welcome.


As part of Cumberland Advisors’ continuous effort to maintain strong customer relationships, we offer this week’s short video discussing current market conditions and how we are positioning portfolios.

In this week’s review, Matt talks about:
-What encourages us?
-What causes a “higher-low”?
-Where are we stuck?
-Let’s talk about stepping back and recency bias.
-We share some charts from Dorsey Wright and look at performance.
-Where should allocations have been made at various times?
-Flexibility and the ability to always take a look at multiple asset classes and try to analyze risk and reward is necessary for long-term performance.
-Enjoyed our time at recent Sarasota Chamber of Commerce get-together and we want to share our favorite quote from guest speaker, Tony Moore.
-“What got you here, won’t get you there.” -TM
-Matt paraphrases, “What got you here investing-wise, may not get you there in the future.”
-Email us at or give us a call at (800) 257-7013

Enjoy your weekend and please send us your questions and comments. We thank you for joining us!

Watch in the video player or at this link:

Matt enjoys your feedback. You can reach him at:
-Link to Matt’s Email:
-Link to Matt’s Twitter:
-Link to Matt’s LinkedIn:

It’s that time of year when the Team at Cumberland Advisors provide their Q3 Reviews. We may discuss what we favor, cash positions, warning signs, and what we see as opportunities. Read to learn more about the thinking behind our positioning of portfolios and how we execute strategies.
Reviews cover the strategies that follow.

US ETF/Markets by David R. Kotok, Chairman of the Board & Chief Investment Officer:

Market Volatility by Leo Chen, Ph.D., Portfolio Manager & Quantitative Strategist:

International ETF by William Witherell, Ph.D., Chief Global Economist:

Taxable Fixed Income by Dan Himelberger, Portfolio Manager & Fixed Income Analyst:

Puerto Rico by Shaun Burgess, Portfolio Manager & Fixed Income Analyst:

Tactical Trend by Matthew C. McAleer – Executive Vice President & Director of Equity Strategies

Tax-Free Muni by John R. Mousseau, CFA – President, Chief Executive Officer & Director of Fixed Income:

Read the rest here:

Camp Kotok - Big Lake - Stacked Stones - Conversations from Camp Kotok

We invite you to visit our YouTube channel and explore the “Camp Kotok” video playlist. This playlist is comprised of Camp Kotok interviews with guests and “campers” who participate and enjoy sharing with us. We also include panel talks, scenes from the location in Maine, and other snippets we find interesting. Enjoy! #CampKotok

Wealth Tax

Democratic presidential candidates Castro, Sanders, and Warren have explicitly sponsored wealth taxation.

Readers may view the candidates’ proposals at their campaign websites:




A New York Times article published last week considers the economic implications of both Sanders’ and Warren’s proposals: “Democrats’ Plans to Tax Wealth Would Reshape the U.S. Economy” (

Follow link here to read some of our bullets:

Cumberland Advisors' Robert "Bob" Eisenbeis, Ph.D.

The Market Knows

The Federal Reserve Bank of New York announced on Friday, Oct 4 that it would continue to offer a maximum of $75 billion in overnight repurchase agreements and at the same time offer a series of term repos through at least November 4 according to the following schedule:[1]

This extension seems to be an attempt to use the market to determine exactly how much excess collateral is in the financial system that needs to be financed.  The term repos are a way of sterilizing a large portion of the excess supply of securities and then the overnight repos provide some indication of how much funding may or may not be available on the margin. The following chart provides some clues as to the maximum amount of financing that the Fed may be willing to provide and represents an experiment to let the market determine, given the lack of bank financing that is apparently quite scarce for this market, how big a facility might be necessary to support the primary dealers.

Continue reading here:

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Cumberland Advisors® is registered with the SEC under the Investment Advisers Act of 1940. All information contained herein is for informational purposes only and does not constitute a solicitation or offer to sell securities or investment advisory services. Such an offer can only be made in the states where Cumberland Advisors is either registered or is a Notice Filer or where an exemption from such registration or filing is available. New accounts will not be accepted unless and until all local regulations have been satisfied. This presentation does not purport to be a complete description of our performance or investment services. Please feel free to forward our commentaries (with proper attribution) to others who may be interested. It is not our intention to state or imply in any manner that past results and profitability is an indication of future performance. All material presented is compiled from sources believed to be reliable. However, accuracy cannot be guaranteed.