Cumberland Advisors Week in Review (Oct 12, 2020 – Oct 16, 2020)

Author: Cumberland Advisors, Post Date: October 17, 2020
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The Cumberland Advisors Week in Review is a recap of news, commentary, and opinion from our team.

Week In Review

These are not revised assessments, and circumstances may have changed in the market from the time of original publication. We also include older commentaries that our editors have determined may be of interest to our audience. Your feedback is always welcome.

CUMBERLAND ADVISORS’ WEEKLY RECAP

As part of Cumberland Advisors’ continuous effort to maintain strong customer relationships, we offer this week’s short video discussing current market conditions and how we are positioning portfolios.

Dear Clients & Friends,

Thank you for joining Cumberland Advisors for this end-of-week update on market conditions, bonds & equities with Matt McAleer and John Mousseau, CFA.

Matt McAleer & Equities / ETFs

-Just what the doctor ordered!
-A little backing and filling, some drawdown midweek met with demand
-We have an interesting Blackrock table to share with you and what we find shocking
-We see nervousness with traders and investors today
-Most calls into our trading desk are about what’s going wrong or what’s going to go wrong
-Very few calls are asking “what can go right,” “what does next year look like,” or “what does the liquidity from the Fed look like?”
-It’s very important for a trader or investor to ask questions about what can go wrong and what can go right
-Matt gives some opinion on what he thinks is tilting things toward negative
-Are we a country in decline? Matt says, “no!”
-Conduct a web search on Messenger RNA (mRNA), fascinating science.
-Use some of your COVID-downtime to learn new things, mRNA as an example
-Where can some of our new discoveries take us down the road?
-Some discoveries and their associated companies will become spectacular successes in the future, something to keep an eye on

John Mousseau & Fixed Income / Munis

-John runs the numbers on interest rates, unemployment, CPI/PPI
-Yield move slowly upward over time
-Does the market expect a blue wave?
-Rates will continue to move up with anticipation of an improving economy
-Muni supply building, we expect to see some buying opportunities as this progresses
-Muni issuers looking to get their offerings into the market before the election
-Next week, looking at employment and new home sales

Please reach out with any questions/comments you may have about this update; we appreciate your calls, comments, and emails. Watch in the player above or at this link: https://youtu.be/is3g8hHxWnY

Stay safe, healthy, and have a great weekend.

-Matt McAleer & Cumberland Advisors

Matt enjoys your feedback. You can reach him at:
-Link to Matt’s Email: Matthew.McAleer@Cumber.com
-Link to Matt’s Twitter: https://twitter.com/MattMcAleer4
-Link to Matt’s LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/matthew-c-mcaleer/
-Call Matt: (800) 257-7013

Other questions or comments? Email us at info@cumber.com or give us a call at (800) 257-7013.

Contact Matt or any one of our advisors by following this link: https://www.cumber.com/our-people/

 


Cumberland Advisors Market Commentary

Cumberland Advisors Market Commentary offers insights and analysis on upcoming, important economic issues that potentially impact global financial markets. Our team shares their thinking on global economic developments, market news and other factors that often influence investment opportunities and strategies. Our readers appreciate its timeliness, depth of analysis, and quality of research.

To read current and past commentaries, visit https://www.cumber.com/category/market-commentary/


Insider Trading – the Case of Consumer Discretionary

Author: Leo Chen, Ph.D., Post Date: October 15, 2020

Leo Chen, Ph.D.We have recently published two commentaries regarding insider trading. You may find them here: https://www.cumber.com/cumberland-advisors-market-commentary-insider-trading-the-case-of-energy/ & https://www.cumber.com/cumberland-advisors-market-commentary-insider-trading-what-does-it-tell-us/. As the third quarter has just come to an end, we want to pick the third-quarter winner, Consumer Discretionary, as our latest insider trading study. Please see Chart 1 below for the sector’s third-quarter sector performance. Consumer Discretionary […]


Yogi: “It aint over”

Author: David R. Kotok, Post Date: October 14, 2020

Market Commentary - Cumberland Advisors - Yogi “It aint over” “It aint over till its over” is exactly how Yogi Berra signed this ball when I bought it at a charity auction decades ago. He did put a dot over each lower case i. He didn’t use an apostrophe in ain’t, nor in it’s, and he did use till instead of until. Yogi’s message is […]


SCOTUS

Author: , Post Date: October 12, 2020

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Three Items to Consider

Author: David R. Kotok, Post Date: October 11, 2020

Market Commentary - Cumberland Advisors - Three Items to Consider Item 1. My friend Nick Colas of DataTrek sent along a link to a Lapham’s Quarterly piece by Francine Prose that dives deeply into previous pandemics around the world and draws some surprising parallels with the way our present political establishment has managed the pandemic. The author says, “What’s so startling about the texts and […]


Wildfires Out West

Author: Patricia Healy, CFA, Post Date: October 8, 2020

Patricia Healy, CFA

On Sunday, Bloomberg reported that this year’s California fires had scorched more ground than the last three years of fires combined. Higher temperatures and greater winds have contributed to the spread. Year-to-date, the California fires have covered 4 million acres in 8,200 fires throughout the state. Some 8,400 homes and buildings have been lost, and […]


Markets, Events, Economics

Author: David R. Kotok, Post Date: October 7, 2020

David R. Kotok

Market-moving events and data points are coming fast, and in a chaotic sequence. Here are some bullets we are watching. 1. The outlook for elections is still highly uncertain and volatile. Biden appears to be strengthening. Texas governor Greg Abbott has restricted drop boxes for absentee ballots to one per county (“Texas governor shuts down drop-off […]


Muni Bonds Turn Toward the Election

Author: John R. Mousseau, CFA, Post Date: October 6, 2020

Market Commentary - Cumberland Advisors - (Mousseau)

With the presidential election a month away, we start to mull over what the bond market might look like post-election day. While most polls have Vice-President Biden ahead by 6–7% points, we know the race has the potential to be much closer, since the 50 individual states decide the election by virtue of voting by […]


International Equity ETF Q3 Overview and Outlook

Author: William Witherell, Ph.D., Post Date: October 5, 2020

Market Commentary - Cumberland Advisors - William 'Bill' Witherell - International Equity ETF Q3 Overview and Outlook

The global economy is expected to have registered a stronger than anticipated rebound in the third quarter with record-breaking growth rates after output collapsed in the first half of the because of the COVID-19 pandemic. The reopening of businesses and the easing of lockdowns and other restrictions in many countries allowed the rapid pickup in […]


Trio to Trio with Laura Wazen

Author: David R. Kotok, Post Date: October 4, 2020

We have a medley of remarkable performances for you this Sunday – a little diversion from the daily political and pandemic fare. Let’s kick things off with a rousing flash-mob rendition of Beethoven’s Symphony No. 9, Ode to Joy, performed years before COVID-19 entered our lives. It lifts us now out of this moment and […]


Hope – An Update

Author: Robert Eisenbeis, Ph.D., Post Date: October 2, 2020

Cumberland Advisors Market Commentary - Hope – An Update - Robert-Eisenbeis, Ph.D.

Our commentary “FOMC: Hope Now Seems to Be a Strategy” (https://www.cumber.com/cumberland-advisors-market-commentary-fomc-hope-now-seems-to-be-a-strategy/) focused on the FOMC’s latest decision to keep its target for the federal funds rate between 0–.25%, to change its strategy for policy going forward to focus on shortfalls in labor markets from what the Committee perceives to be full employment, and to shift [Continued…]


Taxable Total Return 3rd Quarter Review

Author: Daniel Himelberger, Post Date: October 1, 2020

Cumberland Advisors Market Commentary - Taxable Total Return 3rd Quarter Review

Markets experienced volatility in the third quarter of 2020 as COVID-19 and the looming election continued to drive uncertainty regarding an economic rebound. The net result of the volatility left the Treasury market little changed on the quarter, while spreads on investment-grade corporates and taxable municipals continued to grind lower from the peaks set at [Continued…]


Beware of Private Equity in Retirement Plans – 3(38) Fiduciary Advisors Are Needed Instead

Author: Michael McNiven, Ph.D., Post Date: September 30, 2020

Cumberland Advisors Market Commentary - Michael McNiven, Ph.D.

Over the summer, the private equity industry received a very favorable ruling from the Department of Labor, allowing 401(k) plans to invest in private equity funds. Of course, the private equity industry and their lobbyists have long desired the opportunity to access 401(k) assets, and they are ecstatic. This opportunity opens up several trillion dollars [Continued…]


UK Facing Virus Second Wave and Brexit Deadline

Author: William Witherell, Ph.D., Post Date: September 29, 2020

Market Commentary - Cumberland Advisors - UK Facing Virus Second Wave and Brexit Deadline

United Kingdom stocks are underperforming the Eurozone markets as the nation faces the double challenges of an upsurge in virus infections and time running out in the deadlocked negotiations with the EU on Brexit. Over the past three months through September 24, the iShares MSCI United Kingdom ETF, EWU, lost 5.0% on a total return [Continued…]


CIO Overview & Outlook

Author: David R. Kotok, Post Date: September 28, 2020

David R. Kotok

The second quarter of 2020 saw the worst quarterly decline in economic terms since the Great Depression of the 1930s. The US economy literally fell off the COVID cliff. This downdraft side of a very sharp “V” has already made an economic bottom. (It was foretold by the March 23 low in the stock market.) [Continued…]


Zika Pamphlet by David R. Kotok

Zika Download - Kotok

The Zika virus is mosquito-borne. The virus mutates frequently, just as all viruses do. And it can do serious damage to people. It is especially threatening to the fetus of a pregnant mother. It causes conditions, including microcephaly, which spell tragedy for the infant and the family. When it deals such damage to children, Zika imposes huge societal costs measured in the many millions of dollars. All this is documented in the writings that now constitute the chapters of this pamphlet.

https://www.cumber.com/zika/


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Cumberland Advisors Market Commentaries offer insights and analysis on upcoming, important economic issues that potentially impact global financial markets. Our team shares their thinking on global economic developments, market news and other factors that often influence investment opportunities and strategies.

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Cumberland Advisors® is registered with the SEC under the Investment Advisers Act of 1940. All information contained herein is for informational purposes only and does not constitute a solicitation or offer to sell securities or investment advisory services. Such an offer can only be made in the states where Cumberland Advisors is either registered or is a Notice Filer or where an exemption from such registration or filing is available. New accounts will not be accepted unless and until all local regulations have been satisfied. This presentation does not purport to be a complete description of our performance or investment services. Please feel free to forward our commentaries (with proper attribution) to others who may be interested. It is not our intention to state or imply in any manner that past results and profitability is an indication of future performance. All material presented is compiled from sources believed to be reliable. However, accuracy cannot be guaranteed.
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