Cumberland Advisors Week in Review (Oct 26, 2020 – Oct 30, 2020)

Author: Cumberland Advisors, Post Date: October 31, 2020
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The Cumberland Advisors Week in Review is a recap of news, commentary, and opinion from our team.

Week In Review

These are not revised assessments, and circumstances may have changed in the market from the time of original publication. We also include older commentaries that our editors have determined may be of interest to our audience. Your feedback is always welcome.

CUMBERLAND ADVISORS’ WEEKLY RECAP

As part of Cumberland Advisors’ continuous effort to maintain strong customer relationships, we offer this week’s short video discussing current market conditions and how we are positioning portfolios.

Dear Clients & Friends,

Thank you for joining Cumberland Advisors for this end-of-week update on market conditions, bonds & equities with Matt McAleer and John Mousseau, CFA.

John Mousseau & Fixed Income / Munis
-Funny week in bonds, we discuss a breakdown of numbers
-Less of a Blue Wave? Tighter election races than a few weeks ago.
-Yields have gone up this week.
-Despite +33% GDP this quarter, we’re still down about 10% vs pre-COVID
-Issuers came to the market fast and furious previous to this week
-We took advantage of the extra supply
-Muni supply is lower this week, a drop of 20B to 5B
-Corporate issuance dropped
-Taxable muni issuance dropped, looks like issuers are trying to get out of the way of the election
-Get out and vote!

Matt McAleer & Equities / ETFs

-Nowhere to to hide this week!
-Seeing lots of volatility
-We’re watching supply and demand for our signals
-Markets are constantly measuring supply/demand
-Sectors and industries were down uniformly, the best performing was utilities, still down 4%
-“How about a little fire, Scarecrow?” – That’s the kind of market it was this week!
-Stepping back with a wider lens, we’re seeing if the demand at 3200 is real
-The market has really performed nicely on the equity side in the face of constant headline news
-John mentioned 10yr, 87bps. Interesting. If there was real risk in the market, I would have expected yields to drop. That run from equities to treasuries. That fear run to safety
-Gold is down. We would expect it to get a bid if there was real fear.
-For now, we look at things as volatility. We’ll keep an eye out, that can change.
-Currently we’re looking to put money to work vs. take money off on the equity side.
Please reach out with any questions/comments you may have about this update; we appreciate your calls, comments, and emails. Watch in the player above or at this link: https://youtu.be/s7cLtDSNmFE

Stay safe, healthy, and have a great weekend.

-Matt McAleer & Cumberland Advisors

Matt enjoys your feedback. You can reach him at:
-Link to Matt’s Email: Matthew.McAleer@Cumber.com
-Link to Matt’s Twitter: https://twitter.com/MattMcAleer4
-Link to Matt’s LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/matthew-c-mcaleer/
-Call Matt: (800) 257-7013

Other questions or comments? Email us at info@cumber.com or give us a call at (800) 257-7013.

Contact Matt or any one of our advisors by following this link: https://www.cumber.com/our-people/


Cumberland Advisors In The News

Financial Advisor Magazine quotes Patricia Healy, CFA
California’s Boom Collapses With Fires Adding $1.1 Billion Toll
October 16, 2020
Frequent fires “may have inhabitants, insurers, and government questioning the viability of living there and continually rebuilding,” said Patricia Healy, senior vice president of research at Cumberland Advisors. And the pandemic may trigger structural changes that could also fuel the exodus from the Golden State, such as the rise of remote work.
https://www.fa-mag.com/news/california-s-boom-collapses-with-fires-adding–1-1-billion-toll-58482.html

USF Mentions Cumberland Advisors
Holbrook: COVID — a time to learn
October 30, 2020
The USF Sarasota-Manatee campus is partnering with Cumberland Advisors locally and the Global Interdependence Center based in Philadelphia on Nov. 17 to present a virtual panel discussion on Post-Election Financial Markets.
https://www.heraldtribune.com/story/opinion/columns/guest/2020/10/30/covid-a-time-to-learn/6073136002/

Barron’s quotes Bill Witherell, Ph.D.
Tech Stock Valuations Look Increasingly Stretched
October 23, 2020
The inflow of global funds into the two mainland China markets this year has topped $26 billion.… U.S. institutional investors have just demonstrated their support for a continued strong linkage between the U.S. and Chinese financial markets by ordering more than $27 billion in response to China’s first bond offer made directly to U.S. buyers. The bond offer was for $6 billion, and the yield on the 10-year component was about 0.5 percentage points above the equivalent U.S. Treasury. The huge China onshore bond market is estimated as the second largest globally. In contrast, the China offshore market is now small but has huge potential, as the bond sale to U.S. investors suggests. Participating in and helping to develop these markets together with the Chinese pensions and insurance markets will become important for U.S. financial firms.
Paywall: https://www.barrons.com/articles/tech-sector-valuations-are-cause-for-concern-51603495536

Reuters quotes John Mousseau, CFA
Illinois to sell $850 million of bonds as investors brace for junk status
October 19, 2020
“Illinois had problems before the pandemic,” Richman said. “Things are getting worse not better.” Still, John Mousseau, president and CEO of Cumberland Advisors, said the high yields will attract buyers. “People will buy it. They are yield-starved,” he said.
https://www.stltoday.com/news/local/illinois/illinois-to-sell-850-million-of-bonds-as-investors-brace-for-junk-status/article_b57e80d4-1ff4-5e31-a0d4-1b1559980355.html

The Bond Buyer quotes Amy Raymond
Primary in focus as Illinois, Wisconsin, Nevada, Washington go competitive
October 20, 2020
Activity was modest Tuesday, according to Amy Raymond, manager of the fixed income department at Cumberland Advisors in Sarasota, Fl. “Tomorrow looks to be a large tax-exempt new issue day,” she said, with the pricing of the $1.5 billion Illinois Commonspirit Health deal on Wednesday and the $1.9 billion Sutter Health deal on Thursday — both being priced by Morgan Stanley and both in the triple-B rating category, which might carry slightly attractive yields.
https://www.bondbuyer.com/news/primary-in-focus-as-illinois-wisconsin-nevada-washington-go-competitive

Politico quotes David R. kotok
As Trump warns of economic disaster, Wall Street grows giddy about Biden
“Mitch McConnell is a patient warrior,” David Kotok, chief investment officer at Cumberland Advisors, said of the Senate majority leader. “He will look at his declaration to stymie Obama and likely try to repeat it with Biden.”
https://www.politico.com/news/2020/10/27/wall-street-biden-blue-wave-432710


Cumberland Advisors Market Commentary

Cumberland Advisors Market Commentary offers insights and analysis on upcoming, important economic issues that potentially impact global financial markets. Our team shares their thinking on global economic developments, market news and other factors that often influence investment opportunities and strategies. Our readers appreciate its timeliness, depth of analysis, and quality of research.

To read current and past commentaries, visit https://www.cumber.com/category/market-commentary/


60/40 is not dead yet

Author: David R. Kotok, Post Date: October 29, 2020

Market Commentary - Cumberland Advisors - 60-40 is not dead yet “The 60% stock/40% bond portfolio is largely a relic of the past, with alternatives likely to become a bigger portion of investors’ portfolios over the next decade, asset management chiefs said during a panel discussion at the Milken Global Institute Conference on Wednesday.” (“The 60/40 Portfolio Is Dead. Here’s What Will Replace It,” https://www.barrons.com/articles/the-60-40-portfolio-is-dead-heres-what-will-replace-it-51602757800) We disagree […]


Q&A with Christopher Whalen

Author: David R. Kotok, Post Date: October 27, 2020

Market Commentary - Cumberland Advisors - Q&A with Chris Whalen Christopher Whalen is a longtime friend and confidant, so this interview with him inevitably reflects the sorts of biases that result from engaging, enlightening conversations over many years. Many know Chris from TV appearances or press quotes or social media commentary. Others may know his three successful books: Inflated: How Money and Debt Built the […]


Florida: Desantis, Disease, Deaths, Schools

Author: David R. Kotok, Post Date: October 25, 2020

David-Kotok-Quote-Florida - Desantis, Disease, Deaths, Schools v2-2020 The DeSantis administration’s official COVID-19 track record in Florida shows more than 840,000 confirmed COVID-19 disease cases and 16,470 dead among Florida residents as of Thursday, October 22 (https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/us-map). We have only crude estimates of how many people may have caught the SARS-CoV-2 virus in Florida and taken it with them to someplace else. Ron […]


Qingdao, Canada, and Florida

Author: David R. Kotok, Post Date: October 22, 2020

David R. Kotok

Readers can compare for themselves. In Qingdao, China, just a dozen new cases of COVID-19 triggered the testing of the city’s entire population – that’s nine million tests in just five days. Sickness and death are being held tightly in check and so is damage to economic growth. (“China’s Beer Capital to Test Entire Population for […]

Taxes

Author: David R. Kotok, Post Date: October 21, 2020

Market Commentary - Cumberland Advisors - Taxes

There are several policy areas where the differences between Biden and Trump are huge. Climate change policy is one of them, and we have discussed that in the past. Another is taxes. Essentially, Biden promises he will raise taxation in many ways, with the increases falling on businesses and on Americans with taxable incomes of $400,000 per […]


Where Do We Stand Now?

Author: Robert Eisenbeis, Ph.D., Post Date: October 20, 2020

Two key issues in the upcoming election are jobs and the economy. Given their importance, it is appropriate to review exactly where we are on these issues. Both the economy and the job situation have been radically impacted by the COVID-19 pandemic. In the first quarter of 2020, real GDP declined at an annual rate […]

Cumberland Advisors Market Commentary – China and Wall Street – Decoupling or Linking?

Author: Bill Witherell, Ph.D., Post Date: October 19, 2020

China and Wall Street – Decoupling or Linking by William Witherell, Ph.D

For at least three decades, under both Republican and Democratic administrations, the United States has urged China to open up its financial markets to foreign capital and foreign financial firms. However, as part of a broader strategy to decouple relationships with China, President Donald Trump’s administration appears to want global financial firms to pull back […]


Women

Author: David R. Kotok, Post Date:

Market-Commentary-Cumberland-Advisors-David-Sunday-Women

The facts are becoming undeniably clearer. Labor force data confirms them. Anyone who wishes to dispute this claim may offer evidence to the contrary, but we won’t bog down this Sunday morning commentary with charts and links. There are about 25 million to 30 million Americans (out of a labor force of 160 million) who are in […]


Insider Trading – the Case of Consumer Discretionary

Author: Leo Chen, Ph.D., Post Date: October 15, 2020

Leo Chen, Ph.D.We have recently published two commentaries regarding insider trading. You may find them here: https://www.cumber.com/cumberland-advisors-market-commentary-insider-trading-the-case-of-energy/ & https://www.cumber.com/cumberland-advisors-market-commentary-insider-trading-what-does-it-tell-us/. As the third quarter has just come to an end, we want to pick the third-quarter winner, Consumer Discretionary, as our latest insider trading study. Please see Chart 1 below for the sector’s third-quarter sector performance. Consumer Discretionary […]


Yogi: “It aint over”

Author: David R. Kotok, Post Date: October 14, 2020

Market Commentary - Cumberland Advisors - Yogi “It aint over” “It aint over till its over” is exactly how Yogi Berra signed this ball when I bought it at a charity auction decades ago. He did put a dot over each lower case i. He didn’t use an apostrophe in ain’t, nor in it’s, and he did use till instead of until. Yogi’s message is […]


SCOTUS

Author: , Post Date: October 12, 2020

Market Commentary - Cumberland Advisors - SCOTUSAmerica’s stock and bond markets seem to be accepting of the current SCOTUS nominee and the political controversy. The following passage is translated from the original French work De La Démocratie en Amérique (Democracy in America), written by Alexis de Tocqueville nearly 200 years ago: “The great difficulty was, not to devise the constitution of […]


Three Items to Consider

Author: David R. Kotok, Post Date: October 11, 2020

Market Commentary - Cumberland Advisors - Three Items to Consider Item 1. My friend Nick Colas of DataTrek sent along a link to a Lapham’s Quarterly piece by Francine Prose that dives deeply into previous pandemics around the world and draws some surprising parallels with the way our present political establishment has managed the pandemic. The author says, “What’s so startling about the texts and […]


Wildfires Out West

Author: Patricia Healy, CFA, Post Date: October 8, 2020

Patricia Healy, CFA

On Sunday, Bloomberg reported that this year’s California fires had scorched more ground than the last three years of fires combined. Higher temperatures and greater winds have contributed to the spread. Year-to-date, the California fires have covered 4 million acres in 8,200 fires throughout the state. Some 8,400 homes and buildings have been lost, and […]


Markets, Events, Economics

Author: David R. Kotok, Post Date: October 7, 2020

David R. Kotok

Market-moving events and data points are coming fast, and in a chaotic sequence. Here are some bullets we are watching. 1. The outlook for elections is still highly uncertain and volatile. Biden appears to be strengthening. Texas governor Greg Abbott has restricted drop boxes for absentee ballots to one per county (“Texas governor shuts down drop-off […]


Muni Bonds Turn Toward the Election

Author: John R. Mousseau, CFA, Post Date: October 6, 2020

Market Commentary - Cumberland Advisors - (Mousseau)

With the presidential election a month away, we start to mull over what the bond market might look like post-election day. While most polls have Vice-President Biden ahead by 6–7% points, we know the race has the potential to be much closer, since the 50 individual states decide the election by virtue of voting by […]


International Equity ETF Q3 Overview and Outlook

Author: William Witherell, Ph.D., Post Date: October 5, 2020

Market Commentary - Cumberland Advisors - William 'Bill' Witherell - International Equity ETF Q3 Overview and Outlook

The global economy is expected to have registered a stronger than anticipated rebound in the third quarter with record-breaking growth rates after output collapsed in the first half of the because of the COVID-19 pandemic. The reopening of businesses and the easing of lockdowns and other restrictions in many countries allowed the rapid pickup in […]


Trio to Trio with Laura Wazen

Author: David R. Kotok, Post Date: October 4, 2020

We have a medley of remarkable performances for you this Sunday – a little diversion from the daily political and pandemic fare. Let’s kick things off with a rousing flash-mob rendition of Beethoven’s Symphony No. 9, Ode to Joy, performed years before COVID-19 entered our lives. It lifts us now out of this moment and […]


Hope – An Update

Author: Robert Eisenbeis, Ph.D., Post Date: October 2, 2020

Cumberland Advisors Market Commentary - Hope – An Update - Robert-Eisenbeis, Ph.D.

Our commentary “FOMC: Hope Now Seems to Be a Strategy” (https://www.cumber.com/cumberland-advisors-market-commentary-fomc-hope-now-seems-to-be-a-strategy/) focused on the FOMC’s latest decision to keep its target for the federal funds rate between 0–.25%, to change its strategy for policy going forward to focus on shortfalls in labor markets from what the Committee perceives to be full employment, and to shift [Continued…]


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Cumberland Advisors Market Commentaries offer insights and analysis on upcoming, important economic issues that potentially impact global financial markets. Our team shares their thinking on global economic developments, market news and other factors that often influence investment opportunities and strategies.

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Cumberland Advisors® is registered with the SEC under the Investment Advisers Act of 1940. All information contained herein is for informational purposes only and does not constitute a solicitation or offer to sell securities or investment advisory services. Such an offer can only be made in the states where Cumberland Advisors is either registered or is a Notice Filer or where an exemption from such registration or filing is available. New accounts will not be accepted unless and until all local regulations have been satisfied. This presentation does not purport to be a complete description of our performance or investment services. Please feel free to forward our commentaries (with proper attribution) to others who may be interested. It is not our intention to state or imply in any manner that past results and profitability is an indication of future performance. All material presented is compiled from sources believed to be reliable. However, accuracy cannot be guaranteed.
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