Cumberland Advisors Week in Review (Oct 26, 2020 – Oct 30, 2020)
The Cumberland Advisors Week in Review is a recap of news, commentary, and opinion from our team.
These are not revised assessments, and circumstances may have changed in the market from the time of original publication. We also include older commentaries that our editors have determined may be of interest to our audience. Your feedback is always welcome.
As part of Cumberland Advisors’ continuous effort to maintain strong customer relationships, we offer this week’s short video discussing current market conditions and how we are positioning portfolios.
Dear Clients & Friends,
Thank you for joining Cumberland Advisors for this end-of-week update on market conditions, bonds & equities with Matt McAleer and John Mousseau, CFA.
-Less of a Blue Wave? Tighter election races than a few weeks ago.
-Yields have gone up this week.
-Despite +33% GDP this quarter, we’re still down about 10% vs pre-COVID
-Issuers came to the market fast and furious previous to this week
-We took advantage of the extra supply
-Muni supply is lower this week, a drop of 20B to 5B
-Corporate issuance dropped
-Taxable muni issuance dropped, looks like issuers are trying to get out of the way of the election
-Get out and vote!
Matt McAleer & Equities / ETFs
-Seeing lots of volatility
-We’re watching supply and demand for our signals
-Markets are constantly measuring supply/demand
-Sectors and industries were down uniformly, the best performing was utilities, still down 4%
-“How about a little fire, Scarecrow?” – That’s the kind of market it was this week!
-Stepping back with a wider lens, we’re seeing if the demand at 3200 is real
-The market has really performed nicely on the equity side in the face of constant headline news
-John mentioned 10yr, 87bps. Interesting. If there was real risk in the market, I would have expected yields to drop. That run from equities to treasuries. That fear run to safety
-Gold is down. We would expect it to get a bid if there was real fear.
-For now, we look at things as volatility. We’ll keep an eye out, that can change.
-Currently we’re looking to put money to work vs. take money off on the equity side.
Stay safe, healthy, and have a great weekend.
-Matt McAleer & Cumberland Advisors
Matt enjoys your feedback. You can reach him at:
-Link to Matt’s Email: Matthew.McAleer@Cumber.com
-Link to Matt’s Twitter: https://twitter.com/MattMcAleer4
-Link to Matt’s LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/matthew-c-mcaleer/
-Call Matt: (800) 257-7013
Other questions or comments? Email us at email@example.com or give us a call at (800) 257-7013.
Contact Matt or any one of our advisors by following this link: https://www.cumber.com/our-people/
Financial Advisor Magazine quotes Patricia Healy, CFA
California’s Boom Collapses With Fires Adding $1.1 Billion Toll
October 16, 2020
Frequent fires “may have inhabitants, insurers, and government questioning the viability of living there and continually rebuilding,” said Patricia Healy, senior vice president of research at Cumberland Advisors. And the pandemic may trigger structural changes that could also fuel the exodus from the Golden State, such as the rise of remote work.
USF Mentions Cumberland Advisors
Holbrook: COVID — a time to learn
October 30, 2020
The USF Sarasota-Manatee campus is partnering with Cumberland Advisors locally and the Global Interdependence Center based in Philadelphia on Nov. 17 to present a virtual panel discussion on Post-Election Financial Markets.
Barron’s quotes Bill Witherell, Ph.D.
Tech Stock Valuations Look Increasingly Stretched
October 23, 2020
The inflow of global funds into the two mainland China markets this year has topped $26 billion.… U.S. institutional investors have just demonstrated their support for a continued strong linkage between the U.S. and Chinese financial markets by ordering more than $27 billion in response to China’s first bond offer made directly to U.S. buyers. The bond offer was for $6 billion, and the yield on the 10-year component was about 0.5 percentage points above the equivalent U.S. Treasury. The huge China onshore bond market is estimated as the second largest globally. In contrast, the China offshore market is now small but has huge potential, as the bond sale to U.S. investors suggests. Participating in and helping to develop these markets together with the Chinese pensions and insurance markets will become important for U.S. financial firms.
Reuters quotes John Mousseau, CFA
Illinois to sell $850 million of bonds as investors brace for junk status
October 19, 2020
“Illinois had problems before the pandemic,” Richman said. “Things are getting worse not better.” Still, John Mousseau, president and CEO of Cumberland Advisors, said the high yields will attract buyers. “People will buy it. They are yield-starved,” he said.
The Bond Buyer quotes Amy Raymond
Primary in focus as Illinois, Wisconsin, Nevada, Washington go competitive
October 20, 2020
Activity was modest Tuesday, according to Amy Raymond, manager of the fixed income department at Cumberland Advisors in Sarasota, Fl. “Tomorrow looks to be a large tax-exempt new issue day,” she said, with the pricing of the $1.5 billion Illinois Commonspirit Health deal on Wednesday and the $1.9 billion Sutter Health deal on Thursday — both being priced by Morgan Stanley and both in the triple-B rating category, which might carry slightly attractive yields.
Politico quotes David R. kotok
As Trump warns of economic disaster, Wall Street grows giddy about Biden
“Mitch McConnell is a patient warrior,” David Kotok, chief investment officer at Cumberland Advisors, said of the Senate majority leader. “He will look at his declaration to stymie Obama and likely try to repeat it with Biden.”
Cumberland Advisors Market Commentary offers insights and analysis on upcoming, important economic issues that potentially impact global financial markets. Our team shares their thinking on global economic developments, market news and other factors that often influence investment opportunities and strategies. Our readers appreciate its timeliness, depth of analysis, and quality of research.
To read current and past commentaries, visit https://www.cumber.com/category/market-commentary/
On Sunday, Bloomberg reported that this year’s California fires had scorched more ground than the last three years of fires combined. Higher temperatures and greater winds have contributed to the spread. Year-to-date, the California fires have covered 4 million acres in 8,200 fires throughout the state. Some 8,400 homes and buildings have been lost, and […]
Market-moving events and data points are coming fast, and in a chaotic sequence. Here are some bullets we are watching. 1. The outlook for elections is still highly uncertain and volatile. Biden appears to be strengthening. Texas governor Greg Abbott has restricted drop boxes for absentee ballots to one per county (“Texas governor shuts down drop-off […]
With the presidential election a month away, we start to mull over what the bond market might look like post-election day. While most polls have Vice-President Biden ahead by 6–7% points, we know the race has the potential to be much closer, since the 50 individual states decide the election by virtue of voting by […]
The global economy is expected to have registered a stronger than anticipated rebound in the third quarter with record-breaking growth rates after output collapsed in the first half of the because of the COVID-19 pandemic. The reopening of businesses and the easing of lockdowns and other restrictions in many countries allowed the rapid pickup in […]
We have a medley of remarkable performances for you this Sunday – a little diversion from the daily political and pandemic fare. Let’s kick things off with a rousing flash-mob rendition of Beethoven’s Symphony No. 9, Ode to Joy, performed years before COVID-19 entered our lives. It lifts us now out of this moment and […]
Our commentary “FOMC: Hope Now Seems to Be a Strategy” (https://www.cumber.com/cumberland-advisors-market-commentary-fomc-hope-now-seems-to-be-a-strategy/) focused on the FOMC’s latest decision to keep its target for the federal funds rate between 0–.25%, to change its strategy for policy going forward to focus on shortfalls in labor markets from what the Committee perceives to be full employment, and to shift [Continued…]
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Cumberland Advisors Market Commentaries offer insights and analysis on upcoming, important economic issues that potentially impact global financial markets. Our team shares their thinking on global economic developments, market news and other factors that often influence investment opportunities and strategies.