Cumberland Advisors Week in Review (Sept 07, 2020 – Sept 11, 2020)

The Cumberland Advisors Week in Review is a recap of news, commentary, and opinion from our team.

Week In Review

These are not revised assessments, and circumstances may have changed in the market from the time of original publication. We also include older commentaries that our editors have determined may be of interest to our audience. Your feedback is always welcome.

CUMBERLAND ADVISORS’ WEEKLY RECAP

As part of Cumberland Advisors’ continuous effort to maintain strong customer relationships, we offer this week’s short video discussing current market conditions and how we are positioning portfolios.

Dear Clients & Friends,

Thank you for joining Cumberland Advisors for this end-of-week update on market conditions, bonds & equities with Matt McAleer and John Mousseau, CFA.

This week:

Matt McAleer & Equities / ETFs
-Somber September 11 anniversary today
-S&P down 3-3.25% on the week
-I previously shared a chart showing that the internals of the market were starting to roll over a little bit
-Advanced declines were getting soft even though indexes in the third week of August were hitting year to date highs
-It told us to be a little cautious – Matt explains
-Basic Materials and Transports have something to tell us
-Matt talks about some pullbacks and Cumberland strategies that raised cash
-What about International and relative strength?
-Europe? Asia? Drilling down to China & Japan.
-Charts below referenced in the video.

ONE MONTH CHART

One Month Chart
  

THREE MONTH CHART

Three Month Performance

John Mousseau & Fixed Income / Munis
-I encourage you to read David Kotok’s commentary today on his experience at the World Trade Center on 9/11
-I was at the firm that day and recall what David describes vividly
-9/11 commentary link: https://www.cumber.com/cumberland-advisors-market-commentary-9-11-covid-19/
-Treasury Yield declined small amount
-Jobless claims were a little disappointing
-Good news? New claims were under a million.
-CPI creeped up from 1.6 to 1.7, we expect eventually 2-2.4 which it had been for a number of years
-Quiet week for Munis for this holiday week
-We see visible supply moving from 12 to 15 billion next week
-Traditionally, this time of year is when supply starts to build
-We expect some decent buying opportunities going into fall
-John shares some observations about travel in the Midwest and attitudes about the economy
-We wish everyone a good weekend and a somber remembrance this September 11th

 

Please reach out with any questions/comments you may have about this update; we appreciate your calls, comments, and emails. Watch in the player above or at this link: https://youtu.be/-LLhhzmrPuE

Stay safe, healthy, and have a great weekend.

-Matt McAleer & Cumberland Advisors

Matt enjoys your feedback. You can reach him at:
-Link to Matt’s Email: Matthew.McAleer@Cumber.com
-Link to Matt’s Twitter: https://twitter.com/MattMcAleer4
-Link to Matt’s LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/matthew-c-mcaleer/
-Call Matt: (800) 257-7013

Other questions or comments? Email us at info@cumber.com or give us a call at (800) 257-7013.

Contact Matt or any one of our advisors by following this link: https://www.cumber.com/our-people/


IN THE NEWS

Cumberland Advisors In The News


Upcoming Event

Cumberland Advisors is an Annual Sponsor of

the Global Interdependence Center

Executive Briefing Webinar, COVID-19 and Climate Change - Sept 15 1280w

GIC’s next Executive Briefing will explore COVID-19 and Climate Change with Bob Bunting, the CEO of the Climate Adaptation and Mitigation Center. Learn how hurricanes, heat waves, and forest fires have continued their worrying trends and why it’s time to move forward with adaptation and mitigation until global solutions emerge in the decades ahead. Moderated by GIC Chair, Kathleen Stephansen, Senior Economist for Haver Analytics and Trustee of EQAT Trust Funds.

Tuesday, September 15, 2020 | 4:00 – 5:00 p.m. ET, via Zoom.

No-cost registration here: https://buff.ly/2Rk2eLF


Cumberland Advisors Market Commentary

Cumberland Advisors Market Commentary offers insights and analysis on upcoming, important economic issues that potentially impact global financial markets. Our team shares their thinking on global economic developments, market news and other factors that often influence investment opportunities and strategies. Our readers appreciate its timeliness, depth of analysis, and quality of research.

To read current and past commentaries, visit https://www.cumber.com/category/market-commentary/


9/11 & COVID-19

Author: David R. Kotok, Post Date: September 11, 2020

Cumberland Advisors Market Commentary - 911 & COVID-19

Nineteen years ago, September 11, 2001: 7:59 am: American Airlines Flight 11 departed Boston for Los Angeles. 8:14 am: United Airlines Flight 175 departed Boston for Los Angeles. 8:20 am: American Airlines Flight 77 departed Washington DC for Los Angeles. 8:42 am: United Airlines Flight 93 departed Newark for San Francisco. 8:46 am: American Airlines […]


Art Cashin’s Wisdom

Author: David R. Kotok, Post Date: September 10, 2020

Cumberland Advisors Market Commentary - Art Cashin’s Wisdom

Art Cashin, a UBS stalwart and CNBC commentator from the NYSE floor, is a dear friend and marvelous and sensitive gentleman. He is revered by those who know him as the dean of the investment university called the American stock market. Art was kind enough to give us permission to share his morning missive (September […]


The Second Wave of COVID-19 Confronts Western Europe

Author: William Witherell, Ph.D., Post Date: September 9, 2020

CA-Market-Commentary-The Second Wave of COVID-19 Confronts Western Europe

The rebound in the European economies following the sharp fall in March and April is threatened by a second wave of COVID-19 cases. As a result of vacation travel and an easing of restrictions, case growth in Western Europe has returned to levels last seen in May, with 1,094,194 confirmed cases as of the end […]


Labor Markets

Author: Robert Eisenbeis, Ph.D., Post Date: September 8, 2020

Cumberland Advisors' Robert "Bob" Eisenbeis, Ph.D.

In most data releases during the pandemic, it is possible to find some things that are positive and some that are negative, and the extent to which one thing is emphasized over another tends to be influenced in today’s world by politics. The new CES jobs report released by BLS is no exception. There is […]


Echoes of 1968

Author: David R. Kotok, Post Date: September 6, 2020

Market Commentary - Cumberland Advisors - Echoes of 1968

Brent Donnelly is a good friend and fellow camper at Leen’s Lodge. He is also a highly respected senior FX dealer at HSBC New York and the author of The Art of Currency Trading and the daily FX commentary AM/FX. On September 3, Brent penned “Echoes of ’68,” a thought-provoking comparison of the years 1968 […]


Crown Fires

Author: David R. Kotok, Post Date: September 3, 2020

Cumberland Advisors Market Commentary - Crown Fires

A COVID-19 resurgence seems about to begin. Schools reopening will be one of the vectors.  Please take time to listen to this August 27 podcast by Dr. Michael Osterholm, director of CIDRAP, the University of Minnesota’s Center for Infectious Disease Research and Policy. He entitles this episode “Crazy Days,” after the title of a song, […]


Living with Risk: The COVID-19 Iceberg

Author: , Post Date: August 31, 2020

Market Commentary - Cumberland Advisors - Living with Risk The COVID-19 Iceberg

Steve Sexauer and I spent about an hour discussing a superb paper he coauthored with Laurence Siegel. I recommend it to readers. It will give investors and decision makers some perspective on how to navigate through the COVID-19 shock and out the other side. Here’s the link. https://blogs.cfainstitute.org/investor/2020/08/20/living-with-risk-the-covid-19-iceberg/ Below is an excerpt that the authors […]


Why the US has a COVID Data Crisis

Author: David R. Kotok, Post Date: August 30, 2020

Cumberland Advisors Market Commentary - Why the US has a COVID Data Crisis

Congratulations to all. We’ve now endured and survived two political conventions. According to various pollsters, we’re mostly unchanged in our political views. We have witnessed two starkly contrasting and totally scripted messages. And we’ve had two hurricanes and massive wildfires, on top of COVID-19, to remind us that Mother Nature ignores politicians. We humans are […]


FOMC and Revisions to Its Longer-Run Policy Strategy

Author: Robert Eisenbeis, Ph.D., Post Date: August 28, 2020

Market Commentary - Cumberland Advisors - FOMC and Revisions to Its Longer-Run Policy Strategy

On the day of Chairman Powell’s opening speech for this year’s virtual annual Jackson Hole Economic Policy Symposium, hosted by the Kansas City Fed, the Federal Reserve released an update to its January 2012 “Statement on Longer-Run Goals and Monetary Policy Strategy.” This commentary describes the changes in the strategy and discusses what may be […]


Hurricanes

Author: David R. Kotok, Post Date: August 27, 2020

David R. Kotok

In the Indian Ocean they are called cyclones, in the Pacific Ocean, typhoons. The latter term comes from the Chinese tai fung, which translates as “great wind.” The Kʼicheʼ Mayans called their god of wind, storm, and fire Hurakan. European colonists adopted the word, and it became hurricane. (Source: A Furious Sky: The Five-Hundred-Year History of America’s […]


Insider Trading—What Does It Tell Us?*

Author: Leo Chen, Ph.D., Post Date: August 26, 2020

Market Commentary - Cumberland Advisors - Insider Trading (Leo Chen)

Insider trading often refers to acting on material nonpublic information. However, when company employees buy and sell their own stocks, it is also called insider trading, which is permitted by the SEC. We will only discuss the second type of insider trading today. As many investors have wondered, is it a fair game for outsiders […]


9/11 Tribute in Light 2020


 


 

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Cumberland Advisors Market Commentaries offer insights and analysis on upcoming, important economic issues that potentially impact global financial markets. Our team shares their thinking on global economic developments, market news and other factors that often influence investment opportunities and strategies.