Cumberland Advisors Week in Review (Sept 28, 2020 – Oct 02, 2020)

The Cumberland Advisors Week in Review is a recap of news, commentary, and opinion from our team.

Week In Review

These are not revised assessments, and circumstances may have changed in the market from the time of original publication. We also include older commentaries that our editors have determined may be of interest to our audience. Your feedback is always welcome.

CUMBERLAND ADVISORS’ WEEKLY RECAP

As part of Cumberland Advisors’ continuous effort to maintain strong customer relationships, we offer this week’s short video discussing current market conditions and how we are positioning portfolios.

Dear Clients & Friends,

Thank you for joining Cumberland Advisors for this end-of-week update on market conditions, bonds & equities with Matt McAleer and John Mousseau, CFA.

Matt McAleer & Equities / ETFs
– Volatility & Risk revisited
– Headlines creates Volatility
– Structural Damage creates Risk
– What are market leaders trying to tell us? Matt details.
– Overall, indexes very solid this week
– Russell 2000 positive today – let’s keep an eye on it
– Are things better than what the headlines are telling us?
– Portfolios this week – no buys and no sells – we like what we own

 

John Mousseau & Fixed Income / Munis
– Yields down on news of President Trump and the First Lady contracting COVID-19
– They rose a little on the news that it may be a mild case
– September, a very tight trading range
– Very low volatility in the bond market
– Some companies buying back debt – a sign of a move back toward normalcy
– The election will remove one key item of uncertainty off the table
– How about Yields & Inflation? John details.
– Municipal outflows, first time in 20 weeks
– Yields are low in favor of the issuers, not the investor
– We started to play defense in bond portfolios a few weeks ago
– We hope the President and the First Lady recover quickly

 

Please reach out with any questions/comments you may have about this update; we appreciate your calls, comments, and emails. Watch in the player above or at this link: https://youtu.be/nGs2n39u8G8

 

Stay safe, healthy, and have a great weekend.

-Matt McAleer & Cumberland Advisors

Matt enjoys your feedback. You can reach him at:
-Link to Matt’s Email: Matthew.McAleer@Cumber.com
-Link to Matt’s Twitter: https://twitter.com/MattMcAleer4
-Link to Matt’s LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/matthew-c-mcaleer/
-Call Matt: (800) 257-7013

Other questions or comments? Email us at info@cumber.com or give us a call at (800) 257-7013.

Contact Matt or any one of our advisors by following this link: https://www.cumber.com/our-people/


– Upcoming Event –

Cumberland Advisors is an Annual Sponsor of
the Global Interdependence Center

Executive Briefing Webinar, AI and Machine Learning Oct 06, 2020

The on Oct. 6 features an Executive Briefing on AI and Machine Learning, with a keynote from Patrick Harker, President of the .

Registration is complimentary: https://www.interdependence.org/events/browse/analyzing-pandemics-ai-and-machine-learning/


 


Cumberland Advisors Market Commentary

Cumberland Advisors Market Commentary offers insights and analysis on upcoming, important economic issues that potentially impact global financial markets. Our team shares their thinking on global economic developments, market news and other factors that often influence investment opportunities and strategies. Our readers appreciate its timeliness, depth of analysis, and quality of research.

To read current and past commentaries, visit https://www.cumber.com/category/market-commentary/


Hope – An Update

Author: Robert Eisenbeis, Ph.D., Post Date: October 2, 2020

Cumberland Advisors Market Commentary - Hope – An Update - Robert-Eisenbeis, Ph.D.

Our commentary “FOMC: Hope Now Seems to Be a Strategy” (https://www.cumber.com/cumberland-advisors-market-commentary-fomc-hope-now-seems-to-be-a-strategy/) focused on the FOMC’s latest decision to keep its target for the federal funds rate between 0–.25%, to change its strategy for policy going forward to focus on shortfalls in labor markets from what the Committee perceives to be full employment, and to shift [Continued…]


Taxable Total Return 3rd Quarter Review

Author: Daniel Himelberger, Post Date: October 1, 2020

Cumberland Advisors Market Commentary - Taxable Total Return 3rd Quarter Review

Markets experienced volatility in the third quarter of 2020 as COVID-19 and the looming election continued to drive uncertainty regarding an economic rebound. The net result of the volatility left the Treasury market little changed on the quarter, while spreads on investment-grade corporates and taxable municipals continued to grind lower from the peaks set at [Continued…]


Beware of Private Equity in Retirement Plans – 3(38) Fiduciary Advisors Are Needed Instead

Author: Michael McNiven, Ph.D., Post Date: September 30, 2020

Cumberland Advisors Market Commentary - Michael McNiven, Ph.D.

Over the summer, the private equity industry received a very favorable ruling from the Department of Labor, allowing 401(k) plans to invest in private equity funds. Of course, the private equity industry and their lobbyists have long desired the opportunity to access 401(k) assets, and they are ecstatic. This opportunity opens up several trillion dollars [Continued…]


UK Facing Virus Second Wave and Brexit Deadline

Author: William Witherell, Ph.D., Post Date: September 29, 2020

Market Commentary - Cumberland Advisors - UK Facing Virus Second Wave and Brexit Deadline

United Kingdom stocks are underperforming the Eurozone markets as the nation faces the double challenges of an upsurge in virus infections and time running out in the deadlocked negotiations with the EU on Brexit. Over the past three months through September 24, the iShares MSCI United Kingdom ETF, EWU, lost 5.0% on a total return [Continued…]


CIO Overview & Outlook

Author: David R. Kotok, Post Date: September 28, 2020

David R. Kotok

The second quarter of 2020 saw the worst quarterly decline in economic terms since the Great Depression of the 1930s. The US economy literally fell off the COVID cliff. This downdraft side of a very sharp “V” has already made an economic bottom. (It was foretold by the March 23 low in the stock market.) [Continued…]


Three Super New Moons (#28)

Author: David R. Kotok, Post Date: September 27, 2020

Market Commentary - Cumberland Advisors - Three Super New Moons (#28)

Sentiment & Statistical Indicators +Three Super New Moons (Item #28) Some indicators offer guidance. None is perfect. All stimulate thinking. Here’s a sampling about economics, financial markets, health, climate, politics, and, yes, even a forecast from astrology. We’ve saved that for last (#28). 1. The misery index is a long-established statistic. It is simply adding [Continued…]


Cumberland Responds to Barron’s

Author: David R. Kotok, John R. Mousseau, CFA & Patricia Healy, CFA, Post Date: September 23, 2020

Cumberland Advisors Market Commentary - Cumberland Responds to Barron's

Many municipal entities are under extreme stress and federal help is needed now, or these entities will have to reduce staff, swelling the ranks of the unemployed across the nation and reducing municipal services at the very time that demands for those services are at record levels. [Continued…]


Wildfire: Correction and Addition

Author: David R. Kotok, Post Date: September 22, 2020

Cumberland Advisors Market Commentary - Wildfire Correction and Addition

In our recent commentary “Wildfire: More Than a Song” https://www.cumber.com/cumberland-advisors-market-commentary-wildfire-more-than-a-song/, we stated that our nation’s federally owned forests “are housed in the Department of the Interior.” That is true up to a point: The Bureau of Land Management (BLM), which is an arm of the Department of the Interior, does manage 246 million acres of [Continued…]


Trump and Puerto Rico. Better late than never.

Author: David R. Kotok, Post Date: September 21, 2020

Market Commentary Puerto Rico

With much fanfare, on Friday, Sept. 18, President Trump abruptly shifted his policy on rebuilding Puerto Rico. Where he had often disparaged the island’s leaders and opposed rebuilding a power grid and other infrastructure that was destroyed by Hurricane Maria in September 2017, Trump now claimed, “I’m the best thing that ever happened to Puerto [Continued…]


Wildfire: More Than a Song

Author: David R. Kotok, Post Date: September 20, 2020

Cumberland Advisors Market Commentary - Wildfire More Than a Song

Let’s begin this missive with some remarks on wildfire issues from Philippa Dunne of TLR Analytics. Philippa has vast personal experience with fires and is one of our nation’s highly skilled analysts of labor data cohorts, including firefighters. “Over the last decades, yes decades, news pieces on short-handed fire-crews losing control of western fires have [Continued…]


FOMC: Hope Now Seems to Be a Strategy

Author: Robert Eisenbeis, Ph.D., Post Date: September 18, 2020

Cumberland Advisors Market Commentary - FOMC Hope Now Seems to Be a Strategy (Eisenbeis)

The FOMC finished its September deliberations and published its first statement and Summary of Economic Projections (SEPs) since the revision of its policy strategy was announced on the eve of the Kansas City Fed’s annual August Jackson Hole Symposium. The statement began by reiterating that the FOMC stands ready to employ its full range of [Continued…]


Bipartisan House Members: “Enough Is Enough”

Author: David R. Kotok, Post Date: September 17, 2020

The bipartisan House Problem Solvers Caucus (https://problemsolverscaucus-gottheimer.house.gov), led by Reps. Josh Gottheimer (D-NJ) and Tom Reed (R-NY) includes around 50 House members, both Republicans and Democrats. They have proposed a US pandemic aid package that amounts to $1.5 trillion and continues unemployment aid at $450/week, increasing over time to $600/week but not to exceed a [Continued…]


JOLTS – July

Author: Robert Eisenbeis, Ph.D., Post Date: September 16, 2020

Cumberland Advisors' Robert "Bob" Eisenbeis, Ph.D.

The BLS Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) data come out with a lag, so we are now just getting a look at the July numbers. They do, however, help fill in some of the labor dynamics that are occurring within the economy as we adjust to the COVID-19 pandemic shock. We know that [Continued…]


The Rise of Separately Managed Accounts – 2020 Update

Author: Patricia Healy, CFA, Post Date: September 15, 2020

Cumberland has utilized separately managed accounts (SMAs) to execute its fixed-income strategy since the company’s inception in 1973, long before SMAs were popularized in the early 2000s. The reasons for managing money in this fashion are the same today as they were then: • Transparency (you know what you own) • Flexibility to make strategic [Continued…]


Bob Eisenbeis and Howard Getson discuss AI, Investing, Trading, Algorithms, and more at Camp Kotok.

Bob Eisenbeis and Howard Getson discuss AI, Investing, Trading, Algorithms, how data is a new currency, and the “mating dance of algo-bots.” Is AI positioned to replace people in investing? How about trading? Valuable insights from Camp Kotok, August 2018.

Watch here: https://youtu.be/TU4nVSxrQeI


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Cumberland Advisors Market Commentaries offer insights and analysis on upcoming, important economic issues that potentially impact global financial markets. Our team shares their thinking on global economic developments, market news and other factors that often influence investment opportunities and strategies.