Kim, Trump, Thucydides

Author: David R. Kotok, Post Date: May 24, 2018

Trump’s cancellation of the Kim summit meeting clearly draws lines in the sand. Trump’s position cannot now be reversed for a longer period of time than was contemplated just hours ago. We now have an unpredictable escalation path.

Kim’s behavior in destroying tunnels, underground mountain rail lines, and other parts of his nuclear test site implies that he has lost the use of the facility. We do not know the casualties. The Kim family has practiced deceit for generations (three of them). US policy now realizes that hope is not a strategy.

Multidimensional issues abound: US–China, US–South Korea, other players in the region. What happens with Japan?

Bottom line is that the “peace breaks out” euphoria is now replaced with a more pragmatic set of facts. The Pentagon study on North Korea’s behavior only adds confirmation to the increasing risk assessment.

The implications for our dealings with Iran are a critical discussion item now. We must believe that Iran is watching the North Korean situation carefully. Remember that Iran is a customer of North Korean missile and other arms sales.

We have a cash reserve in our ETF accounts.

We are watching important lessons from ancient times playing out again. How much has humanity learned?

For Thucydides part 1, see:

For Thucydides part 2, see:

For Thucydides part 3, see:

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