TV Appearances

Cumberland-Advisors-Market-Update-20201120

Cumberland Advisors Week in Review (Nov 16, 2020 – Nov 20, 2020)

The Cumberland Advisors Week in Review is a recap of news, commentary, and opinion from our team.Week In Review

These are not revised assessments, and circumstances may have changed in the market from the time of original publication. We also include older commentaries that our editors have determined may be of interest to our audience. Your feedback is always welcome.

CUMBERLAND ADVISORS’ WEEKLY RECAP

As part of Cumberland Advisors’ continuous effort to maintain strong customer relationships, we offer this week’s short video discussing current market conditions and how we are positioning portfolios.

Matt McAleer & Equities / ETFs
-Small caps continue to get a bid
-Barbells can be used with equities – I explain.
-We want to continue to stay flexible
-What will the third decade hold for us? Being flexible is our approach.
-Respect valuation and momentum.
-Broadening our view of what’s working needs to be respected
-See you next week!

 

John Mousseau & Fixed Income / Munis
-Update on Bond Market: Yield curve flattened this week
-COVID events taking a toll, bringing yields down a bit
-Higher than expected jobless claims this week
-Munis: Big demand, yields down, last stretch of supply, some deals 15-20 times oversubscribed
-NJ Bonds were in demand: 25B in orders for a supply of 4B. That is a lot of demand for a pandemicly affected security.
-There is an ongoing demand for yield out there, even for pandemicly affected issuers if the price is right.
-What’s hanging over the Muni Market? Discussions between Fed Chairman Powell and Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin.
-Mnuchin would like to wind down some programs, I explain.
-Important thing to remember: The Muni Market is functioning great. Not many issuers have has to go to the municipal liquidity authority.
-If there is any back-off in the Muni Market, it’s probably a good opportunity to buy some bonds at higher yields
-We wish you the best of holidays

 

Please reach out with any questions/comments you may have about this update; we appreciate your calls, comments, and emails. Watch in the player above or at this link: https://youtu.be/C0yVJZ39rNc

 

Stay safe, healthy, and have a great weekend.

-Matt McAleer & Cumberland Advisors
Matt enjoys your feedback. You can reach him at:
-Link to Matt’s Email: Matthew.McAleer@Cumber.com
-Link to Matt’s Twitter: https://twitter.com/MattMcAleer4
-Link to Matt’s LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/matthew-c-mcaleer/
-Call Matt: (800) 257-7013Other questions or comments? Email us at info@cumber.com or give us a call at (800) 257-7013.Contact Matt or any one of our advisors by following this link: https://www.cumber.com/our-people/

Cumberland Advisors In The News

Patricia Healy Featured
CUMBERLAND COMMENT: Government employment falls
Nov 16, 2020

The positive jobs growth news, showing an increase of 638,000 jobs in October and a full 1 percent reduction in the unemployment rate to 6.9%, masked a decline in government employment. Private jobs were up by 906,000, led by an increase of 271,000 in hospitality and leisure, a sector that has been hit particularly hard by pandemic shutdowns. Government jobs, however, fell by 268,000. The majority of the losses were in state and local education, 61,000 and 98,000, respectively. The loss of 147,000 temporary 2020 census workers contributed to a net loss in federal employment of 138,000. The loss of public education jobs as well as private education job losses of 21,500 is likely reflective of the extent of remote learning and the reduced need for support staff.

State and local employment constitute 13% of the total non-farm payroll, and slow growth in state and local employment after last decade’s financial crisis contributed to a slow recovery.

Full article: https://www.heraldtribune.com/story/business/briefs/2020/11/16/patricia-healy-government-employment-falls/6248751002/


John Mousseau Quoted
Muni yields fall as new-issues oversubscribed; ICI reports inflows
Nov 18, 2020 – By Chip Barnett, Christine Albano

Dan Urbanowicz, director and fixed income portfolio manager at Washington Crossing Advisors said “following-through on the $38 billion in orders for New Jersey’s GO deal yesterday, most of the new issues today, including Massachusetts GO, are oversubscribed and repricing 5 to 10 basis points lower in yield.”

Elsewhere, market technicals are being impacted by the COVID-19 climate.

“We’re seeing a renewed supply/demand imbalance in the market,” he said.

The significant oversubscription was a sign of the times, according to John Mousseau, president of Cumberland Advisors.

“Pandemically affected yield sells,” he said after the pricing.

Full article (Paywall): https://www.bondbuyer.com/news/muni-yields-fall-new-issues-oversubscribed-inflows-return


David R. Kotok Quoted
The US economy is about to shrink, JPMorgan warns
Nov 20, 2020 – By Matt Egan, CNN Business

The federal government can’t agree on how to treat the renewed economic weakness. Republicans and Democrats have repeatedly failed to reach a deal on new fiscal relief, setting up a scenario where 12 million Americans could lose benefits by the end of the year.

“Congress has failed the country,” said David Kotok, chief investment officer of Cumberland Advisors.

Ian Shepherdson, chief economist at Pantheon Macroeconomics, slammed Congress for an “appalling dereliction of duty.”

The Treasury Department added to the mess Thursday by yanking $455 billion of funds the Federal Reserve was using for emergency lending programs. The Fed issued a statement opposing the move, marking a rare public dispute between the central bank and Treasury Department -— in the middle of a crisis, no less.

Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin said those funds can be used by Congress to stimulate the economy, but there’s no guarantee a deal can be reached there. And this is a bizarre time to remove ammo the Fed is using to fight the crisis.

“Trump would have signed a bill pre-election. Now he is unpredictable and our national government seems to be in chaos,” Kotok said.

Full article: https://www.kitv.com/story/42943947/the-us-economy-is-about-to-shrink-jpmorgan-warns


David R. Kotok Cited
USF Nursing Course to Address Covid-19, Burnout
Nov 20, 2020 -By Hannah Wallace

This February, the USF College of Nursing will offer a series of virtual courses for frontline nurses about staying safe and healthy—both physically and mentally—while working in a pandemic. “Frontline Nursing During Covid-19: A New Paradigm” will address pandemic-related concerns like Covid-19 pathology, self-care and risk-mitigation, empowerment and self-advocacy, identifying limitations and asking for help.

The continuing-education webinars will be made available free for registrants throughout the country, thanks to a donation from Sarasota’s David Kotok and Christine Schlesinger. Nurses who complete the program will be eligible for continuing-education credits, which are a necessary part of license renewal.

Full article: https://www.sarasotamagazine.com/health-and-fitness/2020/11/usf-nursing-course-to-address-covid-19-burnout


John Mousseau Quoted
Holiday calendar slumps to $1.2B; munis firm after week-long rally
Nov 20, 2020 – By Chip Barnett, Christine Albano

The long end of the municipal market firmed Friday as the expected new-issue calendar slipped to about $1 billion for the Thanksgiving-shortened trading week.

Yields on top-rated bonds fell about a basis point on AAA scales as yields fell about eight to 13 basis points in total since Nov. 13.

Treasury yields slipped as stocks turned mixed Friday while the markets watched the disagreements between the White House and the Federal Reserve over emergency lending programs such as the Municipal Liquidity Facility.

“The market is in full holiday mode,” John Mousseau, president of Cumberland Advisors, said Friday, noting the $3.7 billion New Jersey general obligation deal had tremendous follow-through when it broke free to trade Thursday but otherwise munis were quiet..

“Most people are looking to the period after Thanksgiving,” to get back into the market when new issuance picks up between then and the next holiday season, Mousseau said.

Full article (Paywall): https://www.bondbuyer.com/news/holiday-calendar-slumps-to-1-2b-munis-firm-after-week-long-rally


Cumberland Advisors Market Commentary

Cumberland Advisors Market Commentary offers insights and analysis on upcoming, important economic issues that potentially impact global financial markets. Our team shares their thinking on global economic developments, market news and other factors that often influence investment opportunities and strategies. Our readers appreciate its timeliness, depth of analysis, and quality of research.

To read current and past commentaries, visit https://www.cumber.com/category/market-commentary/


COVID, COVID, COVID! Recovery?

Author: David R. Kotok, Post Date: November 20, 2020
Cumberland Advisors Market Commentary - COVID, COVID, COVID! Recovery  

A Bleak Short-Term COVID Outlook, Then Recovery Dawns Fact is, during the darkest hours before light breaks, dawn is already racing toward us across the surface of the turning world. That’s an image – a reassuring metaphor – that can sustain us now. America’s darkest hours in the COVID-19 pandemic lie just ahead, over the […]


Hurricanes, Bob Bunting, CAC

Author: Bob Bunting, Post Date: November 18, 2020
Bob Bunting - CEO, Climate Adaptation Center (CAC)  

Municipal bond ratings are affected by the preparedness of the issuers for severe weather, the impacts of climate change, and other factors that may affect credit ratings. Cumberland Advisors takes a keen interest in the micro and macro details surrounding municipalities and weather events. Our colleague Bob Bunting, meteorologist, professor, and former executive at both […]


Will the NASDAQ Crash? Also: Helping Nurses!

Author: David R. Kotok, Post Date: November 16, 2020
Market Commentary - Cumberland Advisors - Will the NASDAQ Crash? - Also Helping Nurses!  

Will the NASDAQ crash? We get that question often. Here’s a Bloomberg discussion on that subject and a Bloomberg chart comparing the NASDAQ bubble 20 years ago with the NASDAQ spike this year: “Nasdaq-100 Stumbles Near Dot-Com Era Record Versus Dow,” https://theonedave.tumblr.com/post/634605567333236737/nasdaq-100-stumbles-near-dot-com-era-record-versus. And here’s a Cumberland commentary we wrote at the peak of the NASDAQ […]


Flying to Florida

Author: , Post Date: November 15, 2020
Market Commentary - Cumberland Advisors - Flying to Florida  

Investors and clients ask about the transportation sector and specifically airlines.  The outlook is dependent on travelers’ perceived personal safety (COVID vaccines and treatment options) in addition to economic recovery that can generate the incomes to cover the costs.  There isn’t much more we can add to that investment perspective. We do field direct questions […]


Municipal Employment

Author: Patricia Healy, CFA, Post Date: November 12, 2020

Market Commentary - Cumberland Advisors - Municipal Employment - Patricia Healy, CFAThe positive jobs growth news, showing an increase of 638,000 jobs in October and a full one percent reduction in the unemployment rate to 6.9%, masked a decline in government employment. Private jobs were up by 906,000, led by an increase of 271,000 in hospitality and leisure, a sector that has been hit particularly hard […]


11-11-11

Author: David R. Kotok, Post Date: November 11, 2020

Field-of-poppies-blooming-red-1280x720

On November 11, 1918, President Woodrow Wilson signed the agreement that ended the fighting in World War 1, a conflict that engulfed 30 nations and cost millions of lives (estimates vary). In June of 1919, the Treaty of Versailles would attempt to forge the terms of the peace. Months later, on November 11, 1919, Wilson […]


Singles’ Day and Alibaba

Author: Leo Chen, Ph.D., Post Date: November 10, 2020

Market Commentary - Cumberland Advisors - Singles’ Day and Alibaba (Leo Chen)

November 11 is Singles’ Day in China. It is an unofficial shopping holiday that was started by Alibaba in 2009. It is called Singles’ Day because the repeated number “1” in “11.11” refers to single people in Chinese. Although Singles’ Day is often compared to Black Friday in the US, it is actually more similar […]


China Update – Ant Versus the State

Author: William Witherell, Ph.D., Post Date: November 9, 2020

Cumberland Advisors Market Commentary by William "Bill" Witherell, Ph.D.

Last week, the Ant Group was expected to list in Shanghai and Hong Kong the largest IPO in history. However, on Tuesday, November 3, the Shanghai Stock Exchange announced it had postponed the company’s listing, citing “major issues” that might cause it “not to meet the listing conditions or disclosure requirements.” The IPO listing was […]


Hurricane Roxcy or Hurricane Bob?

Author: , Post Date: November 8, 2020
Hurricane Roxcy or Hurricane Bob

 

“Biden’s proposals to increase taxes on the wealthy and corporations – not to mention a $2 trillion plan to fight climate change – would stand virtually no chance in a Mitch McConnell-led Republican Senate” (https://www.bloomberg.com/news/newsletters/2020-11-05/a-biden-agenda-might-stall-before-it-starts).  Let’s devote Sunday to the climate. Climate change is a big agenda item for Biden & Co. But a gridlocked […]


Electoral College Timeline

Author: David R. Kotok, Post Date: November 6, 2020

Here’s the link to the Congressional Research Service report on the Electoral College timeline. Hat tip Politico. https://crsreports.congress.gov/product/pdf/IF/IF11641 David R. Kotok Chairman of the Board & Chief Investment Officer Email | Bio Links to other websites or electronic media controlled or offered by Third-Parties (non-affiliates of Cumberland Advisors) are provided only as a reference and […]


Wave Bye to Blue Wave – Bonds

Author: John R. Mousseau, CFA, Post Date: November 4, 2020

Market Commentary - Cumberland Advisors - Wave Bye to Blue Wave – Bonds

Though we are still sorting out last night’s election, the so-called “blue wave” of a Democratic sweep of the White House, Senate, and House of Representatives didn’t happen. At this hour, the White House is still not decided; it appears the Senate will NOT switch and will stay Republican; and the Republicans made a few […]


Links to other websites or electronic media controlled or offered by Third-Parties (non-affiliates of Cumberland Advisors) are provided only as a reference and courtesy to our users. Cumberland Advisors has no control over such websites, does not recommend or endorse any opinions, ideas, products, information, or content of such sites, and makes no warranties as to the accuracy, completeness, reliability or suitability of their content. Cumberland Advisors hereby disclaims liability for any information, materials, products or services posted or offered at any of the Third-Party websites. The Third-Party may have a privacy and/or security policy different from that of Cumberland Advisors. Therefore, please refer to the specific privacy and security policies of the Third-Party when accessing their websites.

Sign up for our FREE Cumberland Market Commentaries

Cumberland Advisors Market Commentaries offer insights and analysis on upcoming, important economic issues that potentially impact global financial markets. Our team shares their thinking on global economic developments, market news and other factors that often influence investment opportunities and strategies.

Posted on: 11/21/2020 arrow Watch Video arrow
Cumberland-Advisors-Market-Update-20201113

Cumberland Advisors Week in Review (Nov 09, 2020 – Nov 13, 2020)

The Cumberland Advisors Week in Review is a recap of news, commentary, and opinion from our team.Week In Review

These are not revised assessments, and circumstances may have changed in the market from the time of original publication. We also include older commentaries that our editors have determined may be of interest to our audience. Your feedback is always welcome.

CUMBERLAND ADVISORS’ WEEKLY RECAP

As part of Cumberland Advisors’ continuous effort to maintain strong customer relationships, we offer this week’s short video discussing current market conditions and how we are positioning portfolios.

Thank you for joining Cumberland Advisors for this end-of-week update on market conditions, bonds & equities with Matt McAleer and John Mousseau, CFA

John Mousseau & Fixed Income / Munis
-This week, bond yields up
-COVID vaccine caused a bit of euphoria on Monday
-Muni Yields? No change this week.
-Little muni supply, we don’t expect much the rest of the year
-We expect supply to increase next year
-Expected election outcome looks favorable to munis
-Next week? We’ll keep an eye on key indicators. Without stimulus, a potential for economic slowdown persists.Matt McAleer & Equities / ETFs
-Lot of “nice” volatility this week
-Plenty of demand in small and mid-cap space – a continuing theme
-Some rotation from large to small and from growth to value
-This week, NASDAQ 100 down, Russel 2000 up 6%, S&P up 2% – something to keep an eye on.
-Large cap growth has been so dominant for the last 5 years that you can get into a way of thinking in terms of allocation that money will always follow what’s working
-I have a chart to share with you and what it means
-Next week, 2 weeks from now, 3 weeks from now, will give us a lot information in terms of what this market will do in the next 60-90 days.
-Really nice performance coming out of multiple indexes and multiple sectors.
Please reach out with any questions/comments you may have about this update; we appreciate your calls, comments, and emails. Watch in the player above or at this link: https://youtu.be/mCxwHpOS_Z4

 

Mark you calendars for Tuesday, November 17, 2020 between Noon and 1:30 pm for a lively and informative virtual discussion on “Post-Election Financial Markets” with a panel of professionals from the University of South Florida Sarasota-Manatee campus and Cumberland Advisors. John and I will be featured panelists along with others from our firm including David R. Kotok, Robert A. Eisenbeis, PhD, Patricia M. Healy, CFA, Bill Witherell, PhD, and Leo Chen, PhD.

Post-Election Financial Markets

More info: https://www.sarasotamanatee.usf.edu/events/post-election-financial-markets.aspx

Stay safe, healthy, and have a great weekend.

-Matt McAleer & Cumberland Advisors

Matt enjoys your feedback. You can reach him at:
-Link to Matt’s Email: Matthew.McAleer@Cumber.com
-Link to Matt’s Twitter: https://twitter.com/MattMcAleer4
-Link to Matt’s LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/matthew-c-mcaleer/
-Call Matt: (800) 257-7013

Other questions or comments? Email us at info@cumber.com or give us a call at (800) 257-7013.

Contact Matt or any one of our advisors by following this link: https://www.cumber.com/our-people/


Cumberland Advisors In The News

Sarasota Herald-Tribune mentions Cumberland Advisors
Financial experts, USF faculty to host discussion about post-election financial markets
November 13, 2020

Financial experts from USF’s Muma College of Business and Sarasota-based Cumberland Advisors will host a special discussion on Tuesday from noon to 1:30 p.m. to help investors better understand the presidential election’s impact on financial markets and the economy.

The 90-minute “Post-Election Financial Markets” webinar is free and open to the public. Register at sarasotamanatee.usf.edu/postelection. The event will be comprised of three panel discussions followed by a Q&A session.

More: https://www.heraldtribune.com/story/news/local/2020/11/13/usf-host-discussion-post-election-financial-markets/6277151002/


Washington Post quotes David R. Kotok
Voters choose Biden to rebuild U.S. economy battered by
pandemic

November 07, 2020

President-elect Joe Biden overcame President Trump’s attempt to ride a record economic rebound to reelection, as voters showed more concern for the troubled economy’s future than appreciation for its pre-coronavirus past.

Trade war and tariffs reversed much of Trump’s first two years in economic growth,” David Kotok, chief investment officer for Cumberland Advisors, wrote in an email.

Trump’s trade war also may have hurt him in the politically crucial industrial Midwest. States that rely on imported parts from China, such as Michigan, were especially hit hard by the tariffs on Chinese products that the president imposed in 2018, according to a new study by the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/2020/11/07/us-economy-biden-election/


The Philadelphia Inquirer quotes David R. Kotok
Wall St. betting on Biden win, GOP Senate, smaller stimulus
November 05, 2020

Muni bonds: “As the economy improves and we get to a vaccine, we should see higher (interest) rates no matter who is finally elected President,” wrote David Kotok, municipal bond and fixed income investor with Cumberland Advisors. For now, however, interest rates remain low.

“Munis should be fine,” he wrote, although these bonds “will probably not get a tax-increase boost right away, from a demand/supply standpoint they are in very good shape.”

Until a second stimulus bill passes Congress, “we may see some additional actions from the Federal Reserve to shore up markets if needed. We also expect further jawboning from the Fed to Congress on the importance of additional stimulus.”
https://www.fa-mag.com/news/california-s-boom-collapses-with-fires-adding–1-1-billion-toll-58482.html


Bloomberg Markets
P&L Podcast interviews David R. Kotok
November 04, 2020

David Kotok, Chairman & Chief Investment Officer at Cumberland Advisors, on bond markets and his current election outlook. Danielle DiMartino Booth, CEO and Chief Strategist for Quill Intelligence LLC, former adviser to the Dallas Fed, discusses how the election has impacted her outlook for the economy, and a preview of the FOMC. Timothy O’Brien, Senior Columnist for Bloomberg Opinion, on the election results. Hosted by Paul Sweeney and Vonnie Quinn.

https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/no-plausible-legal-grounds-to-contest-election-levitt/id326301337?i=1000497237365


University of South Florida Foundation recognizes grant from David R. Kotok and Christine Schlesinger
Donation to USF will support new training program for nurses during COVID-19
November 13, 2020

The University of South Florida Foundation has received a generous $57,000 donation from Sarasota businessman David Kotok and his partner Christine Schlesinger to support the development and delivery of a new continuing education training program by the USF Health College of Nursing. The program will help nurses stay safe while treating patients during the COVID-19 pandemic.

The four-part educational series, “Frontline Nursing During COVID-19: A New Paradigm,” will be offered virtually to nurses locally, statewide, and nationally starting in early February.

Kotok said he was inspired to work with USF on this unique program after listening to a presentation by Usha Menon, interim dean of the College of Nursing, during a recent Sarasota-Manatee campus virtual event hosted by Regional Chancellor Karen Holbrook.

https://www.sarasotamanatee.usf.edu/news/2020/donation-to-usf-will-support-new-training-program-for-nurses-during-covid.aspx


Cumberland Advisors Market Commentary

Cumberland Advisors Market Commentary offers insights and analysis on upcoming, important economic issues that potentially impact global financial markets. Our team shares their thinking on global economic developments, market news and other factors that often influence investment opportunities and strategies. Our readers appreciate its timeliness, depth of analysis, and quality of research.

To read current and past commentaries, visit https://www.cumber.com/category/market-commentary/


Municipal Employment

Author: Patricia Healy, CFA, Post Date: November 12, 2020

Market Commentary - Cumberland Advisors - Municipal Employment - Patricia Healy, CFAThe positive jobs growth news, showing an increase of 638,000 jobs in October and a full one percent reduction in the unemployment rate to 6.9%, masked a decline in government employment. Private jobs were up by 906,000, led by an increase of 271,000 in hospitality and leisure, a sector that has been hit particularly hard […]


11-11-11

Author: David R. Kotok, Post Date: November 11, 2020

Field-of-poppies-blooming-red-1280x720

On November 11, 1918, President Woodrow Wilson signed the agreement that ended the fighting in World War 1, a conflict that engulfed 30 nations and cost millions of lives (estimates vary). In June of 1919, the Treaty of Versailles would attempt to forge the terms of the peace. Months later, on November 11, 1919, Wilson […]


Singles’ Day and Alibaba

Author: Leo Chen, Ph.D., Post Date: November 10, 2020

Market Commentary - Cumberland Advisors - Singles’ Day and Alibaba (Leo Chen)

November 11 is Singles’ Day in China. It is an unofficial shopping holiday that was started by Alibaba in 2009. It is called Singles’ Day because the repeated number “1” in “11.11” refers to single people in Chinese. Although Singles’ Day is often compared to Black Friday in the US, it is actually more similar […]


China Update – Ant Versus the State

Author: William Witherell, Ph.D., Post Date: November 9, 2020

Cumberland Advisors Market Commentary by William "Bill" Witherell, Ph.D.

Last week, the Ant Group was expected to list in Shanghai and Hong Kong the largest IPO in history. However, on Tuesday, November 3, the Shanghai Stock Exchange announced it had postponed the company’s listing, citing “major issues” that might cause it “not to meet the listing conditions or disclosure requirements.” The IPO listing was […]


Hurricane Roxcy or Hurricane Bob?

Author: , Post Date: November 8, 2020
Hurricane Roxcy or Hurricane Bob

 

“Biden’s proposals to increase taxes on the wealthy and corporations – not to mention a $2 trillion plan to fight climate change – would stand virtually no chance in a Mitch McConnell-led Republican Senate” (https://www.bloomberg.com/news/newsletters/2020-11-05/a-biden-agenda-might-stall-before-it-starts).  Let’s devote Sunday to the climate. Climate change is a big agenda item for Biden & Co. But a gridlocked […]


Electoral College Timeline

Author: David R. Kotok, Post Date: November 6, 2020

Here’s the link to the Congressional Research Service report on the Electoral College timeline. Hat tip Politico. https://crsreports.congress.gov/product/pdf/IF/IF11641 David R. Kotok Chairman of the Board & Chief Investment Officer Email | Bio Links to other websites or electronic media controlled or offered by Third-Parties (non-affiliates of Cumberland Advisors) are provided only as a reference and […]


Wave Bye to Blue Wave – Bonds

Author: John R. Mousseau, CFA, Post Date: November 4, 2020

Market Commentary - Cumberland Advisors - Wave Bye to Blue Wave – Bonds

Though we are still sorting out last night’s election, the so-called “blue wave” of a Democratic sweep of the White House, Senate, and House of Representatives didn’t happen. At this hour, the White House is still not decided; it appears the Senate will NOT switch and will stay Republican; and the Republicans made a few […]


Yogi Response

Author: , Post Date: November 2, 2020

Market Commentary - Cumberland Advisors - Yogi ResponseCommentaries regularly create opportunities to broaden the conversation with readers. A number of readers responded to my take on the election, “Yogi: It Aint Over,” posted on October 14 (https://www.cumber.com/yogi-it-aint-over/). Some readers questioned the DataTrek outline of stock market results. They speculated that, since a new president takes office four months into a federal budget year, […]


Men

Author: David R. Kotok, Post Date: November 1, 2020

Market-Commentary-Cumberland-Advisors-David-Sunday-MenOn October 18, we dedicated our Sunday morning missive to women. (See “Women,” https://www.cumber.com/cumberland-advisors-market-commentary-women/.) Men may not fall into that gender category, but they are part of the group that made that gender possible. So, this October blue moon, micro-moon, Halloween weekend, Sunday missive is about men. Please note that the majority of the politicians […]


60/40 is not dead yet

Author: David R. Kotok, Post Date: October 29, 2020

Market Commentary - Cumberland Advisors - 60-40 is not dead yet

“The 60% stock/40% bond portfolio is largely a relic of the past, with alternatives likely to become a bigger portion of investors’ portfolios over the next decade, asset management chiefs said during a panel discussion at the Milken Global Institute Conference on Wednesday.” (“The 60/40 Portfolio Is Dead. Here’s What Will Replace It,” https://www.barrons.com/articles/the-60-40-portfolio-is-dead-heres-what-will-replace-it-51602757800) We disagree […]


Q&A with Christopher Whalen

Author: David R. Kotok, Post Date: October 27, 2020

Market Commentary - Cumberland Advisors - Q&A with Chris Whalen

Christopher Whalen is a longtime friend and confidant, so this interview with him inevitably reflects the sorts of biases that result from engaging, enlightening conversations over many years. Many know Chris from TV appearances or press quotes or social media commentary. Others may know his three successful books: Inflated: How Money and Debt Built the […]


Post-Election Financial Markets

Tuesday, Nov. 17, 2020
Noon to 1:30 p.m.
Via Microsoft Teams

Join us for a lively and informative virtual discussion on Post-Election Financial Markets with a panel of experts from the University of South Florida Sarasota-Manatee campus and Cumberland Advisors.

Free Registration


Links to other websites or electronic media controlled or offered by Third-Parties (non-affiliates of Cumberland Advisors) are provided only as a reference and courtesy to our users. Cumberland Advisors has no control over such websites, does not recommend or endorse any opinions, ideas, products, information, or content of such sites, and makes no warranties as to the accuracy, completeness, reliability or suitability of their content. Cumberland Advisors hereby disclaims liability for any information, materials, products or services posted or offered at any of the Third-Party websites. The Third-Party may have a privacy and/or security policy different from that of Cumberland Advisors. Therefore, please refer to the specific privacy and security policies of the Third-Party when accessing their websites.

Sign up for our FREE Cumberland Market Commentaries

Cumberland Advisors Market Commentaries offer insights and analysis on upcoming, important economic issues that potentially impact global financial markets. Our team shares their thinking on global economic developments, market news and other factors that often influence investment opportunities and strategies.

Posted on: 11/14/2020 arrow Watch Video arrow
Cumberland-Advisors-Market-Update

Cumberland Advisors Week in Review (Nov 02, 2020 – Nov 06, 2020)

The Cumberland Advisors Week in Review is a recap of news, commentary, and opinion from our team.Week In Review

These are not revised assessments, and circumstances may have changed in the market from the time of original publication. We also include older commentaries that our editors have determined may be of interest to our audience. Your feedback is always welcome.

CUMBERLAND ADVISORS’ WEEKLY RECAP

As part of Cumberland Advisors’ continuous effort to maintain strong customer relationships, we offer this week’s short video discussing current market conditions and how we are positioning portfolios.

Thank you for joining Cumberland Advisors for this end-of-week update on market conditions, bonds & equities with John Mousseau, CFA. John is holding down the fort while I’m out of the office this Friday.

John Mousseau on Fixed Income / Munis & Markets
-Still don’t know who’s President. What do we know? No “Blue Wave” and the probability of “divided government.”
-Divided government means, probably, less spending overall and less inflation pressure
-In muniland, supply was low this week because of the rush in supply in October
-A growing list of states approved marijuana-related ballot measures. Why? Tax revenue.
-Some good economic news: this week initial jobless claims down, unemployment drops below 7% to 6.9%.
-How about The Fed? In an anticipated divided government climate, Fed Chair Jay Powell stands ready to use his tools and prod the government for a second stimulus bill.
-Next year we anticipate more consumer spending as pandemic problems wane. Americans have been saving throughout 2020.
-This increased spending rate may bring about increased inflation, something to watch for in 2021.

Please reach out with any questions/comments you may have about this update; we appreciate your calls, comments, and emails. Watch in the player above or at this link: https://youtu.be/xEcUnsnhj9Q

Also, please mark you calendars for Tuesday, November 17, 2020 between Noon and 1:30 pm for a lively and informative virtual discussion on “Post-Election Financial Markets” with a panel of professionals from the University of South Florida Sarasota-Manatee campus and Cumberland Advisors. John and I will be featured panelists along with others from our firm including David R. Kotok, Robert A. Eisenbeis, PhD, Patricia M. Healy, CFA, Bill Witherell, PhD, and Leo Chen, PhD.

More info: https://www.sarasotamanatee.usf.edu/events/post-election-financial-markets.aspx

Stay safe, healthy, and have a great weekend.

-Matt McAleer & Cumberland Advisors

Matt enjoys your feedback. You can reach him at:
-Link to Matt’s Email: Matthew.McAleer@Cumber.com
-Link to Matt’s Twitter: https://twitter.com/MattMcAleer4
-Link to Matt’s LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/matthew-c-mcaleer/
-Call Matt: (800) 257-7013

Other questions or comments? Email us at info@cumber.com or give us a call at (800) 257-7013.

Contact Matt or any one of our advisors by following this link: https://www.cumber.com/our-people/


Cumberland Advisors In The News

The Philadelphia Inquirer quotes David R. Kotok
Wall St. betting on Biden win, GOP Senate, smaller stimulus
November 05, 2020

Muni bonds: “As the economy improves and we get to a vaccine, we should see higher (interest) rates no matter who is finally elected President,” wrote David Kotok, municipal bond and fixed income investor with Cumberland Advisors. For now, however, interest rates remain low.

“Munis should be fine,” he wrote, although these bonds “will probably not get a tax-increase boost right away, from a demand/supply standpoint they are in very good shape.”

Until a second stimulus bill passes Congress, “we may see some additional actions from the Federal Reserve to shore up markets if needed. We also expect further jawboning from the Fed to Congress on the importance of additional stimulus.”
https://www.fa-mag.com/news/california-s-boom-collapses-with-fires-adding–1-1-billion-toll-58482.html


Barron’s quotes John Mousseau, CFA
Fed In Holding Pattern Amid Tense US Election
October 31, 2020

While the Fed moved quickly with new credit lines and the rate cut as the pandemic arrived, the initial momentum to get aid bills through Congress has petered out despite increasingly desperate pleas for more aid from Fed Chair Jerome Powell.

John Mousseau, president and chief executive officer at Cumberland Advisors, said the central bank is likely to again encourage lawmakers to continue the push for new stimulus after the election in the final weeks before a new Congress is installed in January.

“The Fed has done their job,” he said.

And as they call for more aid next week “the message will be delivered to a lame duck Congress that might actually act on what the Fed’s doing.”

https://www.barrons.com/news/fed-in-holding-pattern-amid-tense-us-election-01604194525


CNN Business quotes David R. Kotok
The 2000 recount was a mess. A contested election now would be much scarier for Wall Street
November 02, 2020

“The biggest risk to markets is a violent response to whatever Tuesday night and Wednesday bring,” said David Kotok, chief investment officer of Cumberland Advisors. “Markets don’t like violence.”

In anticipation of possible post-election unrest, some retailers in New York City and Washington have boarded up store windows. Federal authorities are also expected to install a “non-scalable” fence around the perimeter of the White House.

http://www.wicz.com/story/42854224/the-2000-recount-was-a-mess-a-contested-election-now-would-be-much-scarier-for-wall-street


Sarasota Herald Tribune features Robert Eisenbeis, Ph.D.
CUMBERLAND COMMENT: Where do we stand on jobs?
November 02, 2020

Both the economy and the job situation have been radically impacted by the COVID-19 pandemic. In the first quarter of 2020, real GDP declined at an annual rate of -5 %, largely as a result of the first surge of COVID cases in March, when the pandemic began to have a real impact on economic activity. Corporate profits declined by $37.5 billion, and the first round of job losses – over 1.3 million – occurred in March.

The decline in the second-quarter GDP of -31.4 % was even more dramatic and was accompanied by a drop in the PCE price index to 1.6% and by the loss of 20.8 million jobs in April. Rounding out the third quarter, only 7.5 million of those job losses were reversed in May and June. The Bureau of Economic Analysis just released its first estimate of third quarter GDP growth, which came in at an annualized rate of 33.1%. Job numbers in Q3 did rebound but only another 3.9 million were recovered in the third quarter, indicating that the virus continued to impact activity in the third quarter.

Continued: https://www.heraldtribune.com/story/business/briefs/2020/11/02/robert-eisenbeis-where-do-we-stand-jobs/6053636002/


Bloomberg quotes David R. Kotok – Video
Stocks Rallying Because Election ‘Squashed Chaos’: Kotok
November 04, 2020

David Kotok, Cumberland Advisors chairman and chief investment officer, says stocks are rallying because the results of the 2020 presidential election has given investors the calm they’ve been thirsting for. He speaks during an interview on “Election 2020: Ballot Breakdown.”

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/videos/2020-11-04/stocks-rallying-because-election-squashed-chaos-kotok-video


Sarasota Magazine mentions Cumberland Advisors
USF Will Host Panel on Post-Election Financial Markets
November 06, 2020

To help sort through the election results and guide investors through these uncertain times, the University of South Florida will host a virtual panel discussion on financial markets on Nov. 17 from noon-1:30 p.m. Experts from the Sarasota-Manatee campus within the USF Muma College of Business and Sarasota-based Cumberland Advisors will share their expertise and insights to guide investment strategies. 

https://www.sarasotamagazine.com/news-and-profiles/2020/11/usf-will-host-panel-on-post-election-financial-markets


The Bond Buyer quotes John Mousseau, CFA
Munis mixed as elections, FOMC, jobs data loom large over trading week
November 02, 2020

Last Friday was just a typical end-of-the-week session, with no tricks or treats for municipal investors as the market remained quiet ahead of the election, said John Mousseau, president of Cumberland Advisors.

“It was a good time to buy issues in the past few weeks because we know issuers were coming to market to beat the election.” He said this was especially true due to “memories of volatility and the sell-off from four years ago.”

Mousseau noted there were good buying opportunities in recent weeks, however, visible supply has noticeable decreased to $5 billion from $20 billion.

“We will see some reversion to the mean, of course, but this should revert to a sellers market,” he said.

https://www.bondbuyer.com/news/municipal-bonds-mixed-as-elections-fomc-jobs-data-loom


Speak French? LesAffaires.com quotes Robert Eisenbeis Ph.D.
La Fed se réunira au lendemain de l’élection présidentielle
November 02, 2020

Il se pourrait cependant qu’aucune décision ne soit annoncée jeudi, à l’issue de la réunion de deux jours.

« La concomitance de la réunion avec l’élection américaine et la détérioration de la situation sanitaire joueront en faveur d’une approche attentiste », estime Gregory Daco, d’Oxford Economics.

« Ils vont attendre de voir ce qui se passe. Je ne pense pas qu’ils fassent une quelconque annonce dans la foulée d’une élection », a également déclaré à l’AFP Robert Eisenbeis, responsable de la politique monétaire chez le gestionnaire de portefeuille Cumberland.

https://www.lesaffaires.com/monde/amerique/la-fed-se-reunira-au-lendemain-de-l-election-presidentielle-/620798


Cumberland Advisors Market Commentary

Cumberland Advisors Market Commentary offers insights and analysis on upcoming, important economic issues that potentially impact global financial markets. Our team shares their thinking on global economic developments, market news and other factors that often influence investment opportunities and strategies. Our readers appreciate its timeliness, depth of analysis, and quality of research.

To read current and past commentaries, visit https://www.cumber.com/category/market-commentary/


Electoral College Timeline

Author: David R. Kotok, Post Date: November 6, 2020

Here’s the link to the Congressional Research Service report on the Electoral College timeline. Hat tip Politico. https://crsreports.congress.gov/product/pdf/IF/IF11641 David R. Kotok Chairman of the Board & Chief Investment Officer Email | Bio Links to other websites or electronic media controlled or offered by Third-Parties (non-affiliates of Cumberland Advisors) are provided only as a reference and […]


Wave Bye to Blue Wave – Bonds

Author: John R. Mousseau, CFA, Post Date: November 4, 2020

Market Commentary - Cumberland Advisors - Wave Bye to Blue Wave – Bonds

Though we are still sorting out last night’s election, the so-called “blue wave” of a Democratic sweep of the White House, Senate, and House of Representatives didn’t happen. At this hour, the White House is still not decided; it appears the Senate will NOT switch and will stay Republican; and the Republicans made a few […]


Election Day: A Few Case Studies

Author: David R. Kotok, Post Date: November 3, 2020

Commentary - Cumberland Advisors - Election Day- A Few Case Studies

Jack replied to our comments about voting systems and their integrity. Here’s most of his note, to think about on this Election Day: Hi David, I am in Savannah until Covid is over. Permanent residence Atlanta. Set up absentee ballots earlier in the year to come to Atlanta. Reaffirmed for general election in July–August period. […]


Yogi Response

Author: , Post Date: November 2, 2020

Market Commentary - Cumberland Advisors - Yogi Response Commentaries regularly create opportunities to broaden the conversation with readers. A number of readers responded to my take on the election, “Yogi: It Aint Over,” posted on October 14 (https://www.cumber.com/yogi-it-aint-over/). Some readers questioned the DataTrek outline of stock market results. They speculated that, since a new president takes office four months into a federal budget year, […]


Men

Author: David R. Kotok, Post Date: November 1, 2020

Market-Commentary-Cumberland-Advisors-David-Sunday-Men On October 18, we dedicated our Sunday morning missive to women. (See “Women,” https://www.cumber.com/cumberland-advisors-market-commentary-women/.) Men may not fall into that gender category, but they are part of the group that made that gender possible. So, this October blue moon, micro-moon, Halloween weekend, Sunday missive is about men. Please note that the majority of the politicians […]


60/40 is not dead yet

Author: David R. Kotok, Post Date: October 29, 2020

Market Commentary - Cumberland Advisors - 60-40 is not dead yet

“The 60% stock/40% bond portfolio is largely a relic of the past, with alternatives likely to become a bigger portion of investors’ portfolios over the next decade, asset management chiefs said during a panel discussion at the Milken Global Institute Conference on Wednesday.” (“The 60/40 Portfolio Is Dead. Here’s What Will Replace It,” https://www.barrons.com/articles/the-60-40-portfolio-is-dead-heres-what-will-replace-it-51602757800) We disagree […]


Q&A with Christopher Whalen

Author: David R. Kotok, Post Date: October 27, 2020

Market Commentary - Cumberland Advisors - Q&A with Chris Whalen

Christopher Whalen is a longtime friend and confidant, so this interview with him inevitably reflects the sorts of biases that result from engaging, enlightening conversations over many years. Many know Chris from TV appearances or press quotes or social media commentary. Others may know his three successful books: Inflated: How Money and Debt Built the […]


Florida: Desantis, Disease, Deaths, Schools

Author: David R. Kotok, Post Date: October 25, 2020

David-Kotok-Quote-Florida - Desantis, Disease, Deaths, Schools v2-2020 The DeSantis administration’s official COVID-19 track record in Florida shows more than 840,000 confirmed COVID-19 disease cases and 16,470 dead among Florida residents as of Thursday, October 22 (https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/us-map). We have only crude estimates of how many people may have caught the SARS-CoV-2 virus in Florida and taken it with them to someplace else. Ron […]


Qingdao, Canada, and Florida

Author: David R. Kotok, Post Date: October 22, 2020

David R. Kotok

Readers can compare for themselves. In Qingdao, China, just a dozen new cases of COVID-19 triggered the testing of the city’s entire population – that’s nine million tests in just five days. Sickness and death are being held tightly in check and so is damage to economic growth. (“China’s Beer Capital to Test Entire Population for […]

Taxes

Author: David R. Kotok, Post Date: October 21, 2020

Market Commentary - Cumberland Advisors - Taxes

There are several policy areas where the differences between Biden and Trump are huge. Climate change policy is one of them, and we have discussed that in the past. Another is taxes. Essentially, Biden promises he will raise taxation in many ways, with the increases falling on businesses and on Americans with taxable incomes of $400,000 per […]


Where Do We Stand Now?

Author: Robert Eisenbeis, Ph.D., Post Date: October 20, 2020

Two key issues in the upcoming election are jobs and the economy. Given their importance, it is appropriate to review exactly where we are on these issues. Both the economy and the job situation have been radically impacted by the COVID-19 pandemic. In the first quarter of 2020, real GDP declined at an annual rate […]

Cumberland Advisors Market Commentary – China and Wall Street – Decoupling or Linking?

Author: Bill Witherell, Ph.D., Post Date: October 19, 2020

China and Wall Street – Decoupling or Linking by William Witherell, Ph.D

For at least three decades, under both Republican and Democratic administrations, the United States has urged China to open up its financial markets to foreign capital and foreign financial firms. However, as part of a broader strategy to decouple relationships with China, President Donald Trump’s administration appears to want global financial firms to pull back […]


Women

Author: David R. Kotok, Post Date:

Market-Commentary-Cumberland-Advisors-David-Sunday-Women

The facts are becoming undeniably clearer. Labor force data confirms them. Anyone who wishes to dispute this claim may offer evidence to the contrary, but we won’t bog down this Sunday morning commentary with charts and links. There are about 25 million to 30 million Americans (out of a labor force of 160 million) who are in […]


Insider Trading – the Case of Consumer Discretionary

Author: Leo Chen, Ph.D., Post Date: October 15, 2020

Leo Chen, Ph.D.

We have recently published two commentaries regarding insider trading. You may find them here: https://www.cumber.com/cumberland-advisors-market-commentary-insider-trading-the-case-of-energy/ & https://www.cumber.com/cumberland-advisors-market-commentary-insider-trading-what-does-it-tell-us/. As the third quarter has just come to an end, we want to pick the third-quarter winner, Consumer Discretionary, as our latest insider trading study. Please see Chart 1 below for the sector’s third-quarter sector performance. Consumer Discretionary […]


Yogi: “It aint over”

Author: David R. Kotok, Post Date: October 14, 2020

Market Commentary - Cumberland Advisors - Yogi “It aint over”

“It aint over till its over” is exactly how Yogi Berra signed this ball when I bought it at a charity auction decades ago. He did put a dot over each lower case i. He didn’t use an apostrophe in ain’t, nor in it’s, and he did use till instead of until. Yogi’s message is […]


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Sign up for our FREE Cumberland Market Commentaries

Cumberland Advisors Market Commentaries offer insights and analysis on upcoming, important economic issues that potentially impact global financial markets. Our team shares their thinking on global economic developments, market news and other factors that often influence investment opportunities and strategies.

Posted on: 11/07/2020 arrow Watch Video arrow
Cumberland-Advisors-Market-Update

Cumberland Advisors Week in Review (Oct 26, 2020 – Oct 30, 2020)

The Cumberland Advisors Week in Review is a recap of news, commentary, and opinion from our team.

Week In Review

These are not revised assessments, and circumstances may have changed in the market from the time of original publication. We also include older commentaries that our editors have determined may be of interest to our audience. Your feedback is always welcome.

CUMBERLAND ADVISORS’ WEEKLY RECAP

As part of Cumberland Advisors’ continuous effort to maintain strong customer relationships, we offer this week’s short video discussing current market conditions and how we are positioning portfolios.

Dear Clients & Friends,

Thank you for joining Cumberland Advisors for this end-of-week update on market conditions, bonds & equities with Matt McAleer and John Mousseau, CFA.

John Mousseau & Fixed Income / Munis
-Funny week in bonds, we discuss a breakdown of numbers
-Less of a Blue Wave? Tighter election races than a few weeks ago.
-Yields have gone up this week.
-Despite +33% GDP this quarter, we’re still down about 10% vs pre-COVID
-Issuers came to the market fast and furious previous to this week
-We took advantage of the extra supply
-Muni supply is lower this week, a drop of 20B to 5B
-Corporate issuance dropped
-Taxable muni issuance dropped, looks like issuers are trying to get out of the way of the election
-Get out and vote!

Matt McAleer & Equities / ETFs

-Nowhere to to hide this week!
-Seeing lots of volatility
-We’re watching supply and demand for our signals
-Markets are constantly measuring supply/demand
-Sectors and industries were down uniformly, the best performing was utilities, still down 4%
-“How about a little fire, Scarecrow?” – That’s the kind of market it was this week!
-Stepping back with a wider lens, we’re seeing if the demand at 3200 is real
-The market has really performed nicely on the equity side in the face of constant headline news
-John mentioned 10yr, 87bps. Interesting. If there was real risk in the market, I would have expected yields to drop. That run from equities to treasuries. That fear run to safety
-Gold is down. We would expect it to get a bid if there was real fear.
-For now, we look at things as volatility. We’ll keep an eye out, that can change.
-Currently we’re looking to put money to work vs. take money off on the equity side.
Please reach out with any questions/comments you may have about this update; we appreciate your calls, comments, and emails. Watch in the player above or at this link: https://youtu.be/s7cLtDSNmFE

Stay safe, healthy, and have a great weekend.

-Matt McAleer & Cumberland Advisors

Matt enjoys your feedback. You can reach him at:
-Link to Matt’s Email: Matthew.McAleer@Cumber.com
-Link to Matt’s Twitter: https://twitter.com/MattMcAleer4
-Link to Matt’s LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/matthew-c-mcaleer/
-Call Matt: (800) 257-7013

Other questions or comments? Email us at info@cumber.com or give us a call at (800) 257-7013.

Contact Matt or any one of our advisors by following this link: https://www.cumber.com/our-people/


Cumberland Advisors In The News

Financial Advisor Magazine quotes Patricia Healy, CFA
California’s Boom Collapses With Fires Adding $1.1 Billion Toll
October 16, 2020
Frequent fires “may have inhabitants, insurers, and government questioning the viability of living there and continually rebuilding,” said Patricia Healy, senior vice president of research at Cumberland Advisors. And the pandemic may trigger structural changes that could also fuel the exodus from the Golden State, such as the rise of remote work.
https://www.fa-mag.com/news/california-s-boom-collapses-with-fires-adding–1-1-billion-toll-58482.html

USF Mentions Cumberland Advisors
Holbrook: COVID — a time to learn
October 30, 2020
The USF Sarasota-Manatee campus is partnering with Cumberland Advisors locally and the Global Interdependence Center based in Philadelphia on Nov. 17 to present a virtual panel discussion on Post-Election Financial Markets.
https://www.heraldtribune.com/story/opinion/columns/guest/2020/10/30/covid-a-time-to-learn/6073136002/

Barron’s quotes Bill Witherell, Ph.D.
Tech Stock Valuations Look Increasingly Stretched
October 23, 2020
The inflow of global funds into the two mainland China markets this year has topped $26 billion.… U.S. institutional investors have just demonstrated their support for a continued strong linkage between the U.S. and Chinese financial markets by ordering more than $27 billion in response to China’s first bond offer made directly to U.S. buyers. The bond offer was for $6 billion, and the yield on the 10-year component was about 0.5 percentage points above the equivalent U.S. Treasury. The huge China onshore bond market is estimated as the second largest globally. In contrast, the China offshore market is now small but has huge potential, as the bond sale to U.S. investors suggests. Participating in and helping to develop these markets together with the Chinese pensions and insurance markets will become important for U.S. financial firms.
Paywall: https://www.barrons.com/articles/tech-sector-valuations-are-cause-for-concern-51603495536

Reuters quotes John Mousseau, CFA
Illinois to sell $850 million of bonds as investors brace for junk status
October 19, 2020
“Illinois had problems before the pandemic,” Richman said. “Things are getting worse not better.” Still, John Mousseau, president and CEO of Cumberland Advisors, said the high yields will attract buyers. “People will buy it. They are yield-starved,” he said.
https://www.stltoday.com/news/local/illinois/illinois-to-sell-850-million-of-bonds-as-investors-brace-for-junk-status/article_b57e80d4-1ff4-5e31-a0d4-1b1559980355.html

The Bond Buyer quotes Amy Raymond
Primary in focus as Illinois, Wisconsin, Nevada, Washington go competitive
October 20, 2020
Activity was modest Tuesday, according to Amy Raymond, manager of the fixed income department at Cumberland Advisors in Sarasota, Fl. “Tomorrow looks to be a large tax-exempt new issue day,” she said, with the pricing of the $1.5 billion Illinois Commonspirit Health deal on Wednesday and the $1.9 billion Sutter Health deal on Thursday — both being priced by Morgan Stanley and both in the triple-B rating category, which might carry slightly attractive yields.
https://www.bondbuyer.com/news/primary-in-focus-as-illinois-wisconsin-nevada-washington-go-competitive

Politico quotes David R. kotok
As Trump warns of economic disaster, Wall Street grows giddy about Biden
“Mitch McConnell is a patient warrior,” David Kotok, chief investment officer at Cumberland Advisors, said of the Senate majority leader. “He will look at his declaration to stymie Obama and likely try to repeat it with Biden.”
https://www.politico.com/news/2020/10/27/wall-street-biden-blue-wave-432710


Cumberland Advisors Market Commentary

Cumberland Advisors Market Commentary offers insights and analysis on upcoming, important economic issues that potentially impact global financial markets. Our team shares their thinking on global economic developments, market news and other factors that often influence investment opportunities and strategies. Our readers appreciate its timeliness, depth of analysis, and quality of research.

To read current and past commentaries, visit https://www.cumber.com/category/market-commentary/


60/40 is not dead yet

Author: David R. Kotok, Post Date: October 29, 2020

Market Commentary - Cumberland Advisors - 60-40 is not dead yet “The 60% stock/40% bond portfolio is largely a relic of the past, with alternatives likely to become a bigger portion of investors’ portfolios over the next decade, asset management chiefs said during a panel discussion at the Milken Global Institute Conference on Wednesday.” (“The 60/40 Portfolio Is Dead. Here’s What Will Replace It,” https://www.barrons.com/articles/the-60-40-portfolio-is-dead-heres-what-will-replace-it-51602757800) We disagree […]


Q&A with Christopher Whalen

Author: David R. Kotok, Post Date: October 27, 2020

Market Commentary - Cumberland Advisors - Q&A with Chris Whalen Christopher Whalen is a longtime friend and confidant, so this interview with him inevitably reflects the sorts of biases that result from engaging, enlightening conversations over many years. Many know Chris from TV appearances or press quotes or social media commentary. Others may know his three successful books: Inflated: How Money and Debt Built the […]


Florida: Desantis, Disease, Deaths, Schools

Author: David R. Kotok, Post Date: October 25, 2020

David-Kotok-Quote-Florida - Desantis, Disease, Deaths, Schools v2-2020 The DeSantis administration’s official COVID-19 track record in Florida shows more than 840,000 confirmed COVID-19 disease cases and 16,470 dead among Florida residents as of Thursday, October 22 (https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/us-map). We have only crude estimates of how many people may have caught the SARS-CoV-2 virus in Florida and taken it with them to someplace else. Ron […]


Qingdao, Canada, and Florida

Author: David R. Kotok, Post Date: October 22, 2020

David R. Kotok

Readers can compare for themselves. In Qingdao, China, just a dozen new cases of COVID-19 triggered the testing of the city’s entire population – that’s nine million tests in just five days. Sickness and death are being held tightly in check and so is damage to economic growth. (“China’s Beer Capital to Test Entire Population for […]

Taxes

Author: David R. Kotok, Post Date: October 21, 2020

Market Commentary - Cumberland Advisors - Taxes

There are several policy areas where the differences between Biden and Trump are huge. Climate change policy is one of them, and we have discussed that in the past. Another is taxes. Essentially, Biden promises he will raise taxation in many ways, with the increases falling on businesses and on Americans with taxable incomes of $400,000 per […]


Where Do We Stand Now?

Author: Robert Eisenbeis, Ph.D., Post Date: October 20, 2020

Two key issues in the upcoming election are jobs and the economy. Given their importance, it is appropriate to review exactly where we are on these issues. Both the economy and the job situation have been radically impacted by the COVID-19 pandemic. In the first quarter of 2020, real GDP declined at an annual rate […]

Cumberland Advisors Market Commentary – China and Wall Street – Decoupling or Linking?

Author: Bill Witherell, Ph.D., Post Date: October 19, 2020

China and Wall Street – Decoupling or Linking by William Witherell, Ph.D

For at least three decades, under both Republican and Democratic administrations, the United States has urged China to open up its financial markets to foreign capital and foreign financial firms. However, as part of a broader strategy to decouple relationships with China, President Donald Trump’s administration appears to want global financial firms to pull back […]


Women

Author: David R. Kotok, Post Date:

Market-Commentary-Cumberland-Advisors-David-Sunday-Women

The facts are becoming undeniably clearer. Labor force data confirms them. Anyone who wishes to dispute this claim may offer evidence to the contrary, but we won’t bog down this Sunday morning commentary with charts and links. There are about 25 million to 30 million Americans (out of a labor force of 160 million) who are in […]


Insider Trading – the Case of Consumer Discretionary

Author: Leo Chen, Ph.D., Post Date: October 15, 2020

Leo Chen, Ph.D.We have recently published two commentaries regarding insider trading. You may find them here: https://www.cumber.com/cumberland-advisors-market-commentary-insider-trading-the-case-of-energy/ & https://www.cumber.com/cumberland-advisors-market-commentary-insider-trading-what-does-it-tell-us/. As the third quarter has just come to an end, we want to pick the third-quarter winner, Consumer Discretionary, as our latest insider trading study. Please see Chart 1 below for the sector’s third-quarter sector performance. Consumer Discretionary […]


Yogi: “It aint over”

Author: David R. Kotok, Post Date: October 14, 2020

Market Commentary - Cumberland Advisors - Yogi “It aint over” “It aint over till its over” is exactly how Yogi Berra signed this ball when I bought it at a charity auction decades ago. He did put a dot over each lower case i. He didn’t use an apostrophe in ain’t, nor in it’s, and he did use till instead of until. Yogi’s message is […]


SCOTUS

Author: , Post Date: October 12, 2020

Market Commentary - Cumberland Advisors - SCOTUSAmerica’s stock and bond markets seem to be accepting of the current SCOTUS nominee and the political controversy. The following passage is translated from the original French work De La Démocratie en Amérique (Democracy in America), written by Alexis de Tocqueville nearly 200 years ago: “The great difficulty was, not to devise the constitution of […]


Three Items to Consider

Author: David R. Kotok, Post Date: October 11, 2020

Market Commentary - Cumberland Advisors - Three Items to Consider Item 1. My friend Nick Colas of DataTrek sent along a link to a Lapham’s Quarterly piece by Francine Prose that dives deeply into previous pandemics around the world and draws some surprising parallels with the way our present political establishment has managed the pandemic. The author says, “What’s so startling about the texts and […]


Wildfires Out West

Author: Patricia Healy, CFA, Post Date: October 8, 2020

Patricia Healy, CFA

On Sunday, Bloomberg reported that this year’s California fires had scorched more ground than the last three years of fires combined. Higher temperatures and greater winds have contributed to the spread. Year-to-date, the California fires have covered 4 million acres in 8,200 fires throughout the state. Some 8,400 homes and buildings have been lost, and […]


Markets, Events, Economics

Author: David R. Kotok, Post Date: October 7, 2020

David R. Kotok

Market-moving events and data points are coming fast, and in a chaotic sequence. Here are some bullets we are watching. 1. The outlook for elections is still highly uncertain and volatile. Biden appears to be strengthening. Texas governor Greg Abbott has restricted drop boxes for absentee ballots to one per county (“Texas governor shuts down drop-off […]


Muni Bonds Turn Toward the Election

Author: John R. Mousseau, CFA, Post Date: October 6, 2020

Market Commentary - Cumberland Advisors - (Mousseau)

With the presidential election a month away, we start to mull over what the bond market might look like post-election day. While most polls have Vice-President Biden ahead by 6–7% points, we know the race has the potential to be much closer, since the 50 individual states decide the election by virtue of voting by […]


International Equity ETF Q3 Overview and Outlook

Author: William Witherell, Ph.D., Post Date: October 5, 2020

Market Commentary - Cumberland Advisors - William 'Bill' Witherell - International Equity ETF Q3 Overview and Outlook

The global economy is expected to have registered a stronger than anticipated rebound in the third quarter with record-breaking growth rates after output collapsed in the first half of the because of the COVID-19 pandemic. The reopening of businesses and the easing of lockdowns and other restrictions in many countries allowed the rapid pickup in […]


Trio to Trio with Laura Wazen

Author: David R. Kotok, Post Date: October 4, 2020

We have a medley of remarkable performances for you this Sunday – a little diversion from the daily political and pandemic fare. Let’s kick things off with a rousing flash-mob rendition of Beethoven’s Symphony No. 9, Ode to Joy, performed years before COVID-19 entered our lives. It lifts us now out of this moment and […]


Hope – An Update

Author: Robert Eisenbeis, Ph.D., Post Date: October 2, 2020

Cumberland Advisors Market Commentary - Hope – An Update - Robert-Eisenbeis, Ph.D.

Our commentary “FOMC: Hope Now Seems to Be a Strategy” (https://www.cumber.com/cumberland-advisors-market-commentary-fomc-hope-now-seems-to-be-a-strategy/) focused on the FOMC’s latest decision to keep its target for the federal funds rate between 0–.25%, to change its strategy for policy going forward to focus on shortfalls in labor markets from what the Committee perceives to be full employment, and to shift [Continued…]


Links to other websites or electronic media controlled or offered by Third-Parties (non-affiliates of Cumberland Advisors) are provided only as a reference and courtesy to our users. Cumberland Advisors has no control over such websites, does not recommend or endorse any opinions, ideas, products, information, or content of such sites, and makes no warranties as to the accuracy, completeness, reliability or suitability of their content. Cumberland Advisors hereby disclaims liability for any information, materials, products or services posted or offered at any of the Third-Party websites. The Third-Party may have a privacy and/or security policy different from that of Cumberland Advisors. Therefore, please refer to the specific privacy and security policies of the Third-Party when accessing their websites.

Sign up for our FREE Cumberland Market Commentaries

Cumberland Advisors Market Commentaries offer insights and analysis on upcoming, important economic issues that potentially impact global financial markets. Our team shares their thinking on global economic developments, market news and other factors that often influence investment opportunities and strategies.

Posted on: 10/31/2020 arrow Watch Video arrow
Cumberland-Advisors-Market-Update-2020-10-23

Cumberland Advisors Week in Review (Oct 19, 2020 – Oct 23, 2020)

The Cumberland Advisors Week in Review is a recap of news, commentary, and opinion from our team.

Week In Review

These are not revised assessments, and circumstances may have changed in the market from the time of original publication. We also include older commentaries that our editors have determined may be of interest to our audience. Your feedback is always welcome.

CUMBERLAND ADVISORS’ WEEKLY RECAP

As part of Cumberland Advisors’ continuous effort to maintain strong customer relationships, we offer this week’s short video discussing current market conditions and how we are positioning portfolios.

Dear Clients & Friends,

Thank you for joining Cumberland Advisors for this end-of-week update on market conditions, bonds & equities with Matt McAleer and John Mousseau, CFA.

Matt McAleer & Equities / ETFs

-Equity markets digesting COVID-19 and election headlines well
-Recent Russell 2000 outperformance showing expansion of breadth in the market
-Value maintaining strong bid due to interest rate relief for banks and insurance
-Know the difference between Volatility and Risk

John Mousseau & Fixed Income / Munis

-Bond yields creeping higher
-Markets thinking about a Democratic victory
-More muni issuers looking to come to market before the election
-Looking out for Jobless Claims and Q3 GDP next week

Please reach out with any questions/comments you may have about this update; we appreciate your calls, comments, and emails. Watch in the player above or at this link: (https://youtu.be/k7ByJltj_TE)

Stay safe, healthy, and have a great weekend.

-Matt McAleer & Cumberland Advisors

Matt enjoys your feedback. You can reach him at:
-Link to Matt’s Email: Matthew.McAleer@Cumber.com
-Link to Matt’s Twitter: https://twitter.com/MattMcAleer4
-Link to Matt’s LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/matthew-c-mcaleer/
-Call Matt: (800) 257-7013

Other questions or comments? Email us at info@cumber.com or give us a call at (800) 257-7013.

Contact Matt or any one of our advisors by following this link: https://www.cumber.com/our-people/

 


Cumberland Advisors Market Commentary

Cumberland Advisors Market Commentary offers insights and analysis on upcoming, important economic issues that potentially impact global financial markets. Our team shares their thinking on global economic developments, market news and other factors that often influence investment opportunities and strategies. Our readers appreciate its timeliness, depth of analysis, and quality of research.

To read current and past commentaries, visit https://www.cumber.com/category/market-commentary/


Qingdao, Canada, and Florida

Author: David R. Kotok, Post Date: October 22, 2020

David R. Kotok

Readers can compare for themselves. In Qingdao, China, just a dozen new cases of COVID-19 triggered the testing of the city’s entire population – that’s nine million tests in just five days. Sickness and death are being held tightly in check and so is damage to economic growth. (“China’s Beer Capital to Test Entire Population for […]

Taxes

Author: David R. Kotok, Post Date: October 21, 2020

Market Commentary - Cumberland Advisors - Taxes

There are several policy areas where the differences between Biden and Trump are huge. Climate change policy is one of them, and we have discussed that in the past. Another is taxes. Essentially, Biden promises he will raise taxation in many ways, with the increases falling on businesses and on Americans with taxable incomes of $400,000 per […]


Where Do We Stand Now?

Author: Robert Eisenbeis, Ph.D., Post Date: October 20, 2020

Two key issues in the upcoming election are jobs and the economy. Given their importance, it is appropriate to review exactly where we are on these issues. Both the economy and the job situation have been radically impacted by the COVID-19 pandemic. In the first quarter of 2020, real GDP declined at an annual rate […]

Cumberland Advisors Market Commentary – China and Wall Street – Decoupling or Linking?

Author: Bill Witherell, Ph.D., Post Date: October 19, 2020

China and Wall Street – Decoupling or Linking by William Witherell, Ph.D

For at least three decades, under both Republican and Democratic administrations, the United States has urged China to open up its financial markets to foreign capital and foreign financial firms. However, as part of a broader strategy to decouple relationships with China, President Donald Trump’s administration appears to want global financial firms to pull back […]


Women

Author: David R. Kotok, Post Date:

Market-Commentary-Cumberland-Advisors-David-Sunday-Women

The facts are becoming undeniably clearer. Labor force data confirms them. Anyone who wishes to dispute this claim may offer evidence to the contrary, but we won’t bog down this Sunday morning commentary with charts and links. There are about 25 million to 30 million Americans (out of a labor force of 160 million) who are in […]


Insider Trading – the Case of Consumer Discretionary

Author: Leo Chen, Ph.D., Post Date: October 15, 2020

Leo Chen, Ph.D.We have recently published two commentaries regarding insider trading. You may find them here: https://www.cumber.com/cumberland-advisors-market-commentary-insider-trading-the-case-of-energy/ & https://www.cumber.com/cumberland-advisors-market-commentary-insider-trading-what-does-it-tell-us/. As the third quarter has just come to an end, we want to pick the third-quarter winner, Consumer Discretionary, as our latest insider trading study. Please see Chart 1 below for the sector’s third-quarter sector performance. Consumer Discretionary […]


Yogi: “It aint over”

Author: David R. Kotok, Post Date: October 14, 2020

Market Commentary - Cumberland Advisors - Yogi “It aint over” “It aint over till its over” is exactly how Yogi Berra signed this ball when I bought it at a charity auction decades ago. He did put a dot over each lower case i. He didn’t use an apostrophe in ain’t, nor in it’s, and he did use till instead of until. Yogi’s message is […]


SCOTUS

Author: , Post Date: October 12, 2020

Market Commentary - Cumberland Advisors - SCOTUSAmerica’s stock and bond markets seem to be accepting of the current SCOTUS nominee and the political controversy. The following passage is translated from the original French work De La Démocratie en Amérique (Democracy in America), written by Alexis de Tocqueville nearly 200 years ago: “The great difficulty was, not to devise the constitution of […]


Three Items to Consider

Author: David R. Kotok, Post Date: October 11, 2020

Market Commentary - Cumberland Advisors - Three Items to Consider Item 1. My friend Nick Colas of DataTrek sent along a link to a Lapham’s Quarterly piece by Francine Prose that dives deeply into previous pandemics around the world and draws some surprising parallels with the way our present political establishment has managed the pandemic. The author says, “What’s so startling about the texts and […]


Wildfires Out West

Author: Patricia Healy, CFA, Post Date: October 8, 2020

Patricia Healy, CFA

On Sunday, Bloomberg reported that this year’s California fires had scorched more ground than the last three years of fires combined. Higher temperatures and greater winds have contributed to the spread. Year-to-date, the California fires have covered 4 million acres in 8,200 fires throughout the state. Some 8,400 homes and buildings have been lost, and […]


Markets, Events, Economics

Author: David R. Kotok, Post Date: October 7, 2020

David R. Kotok

Market-moving events and data points are coming fast, and in a chaotic sequence. Here are some bullets we are watching. 1. The outlook for elections is still highly uncertain and volatile. Biden appears to be strengthening. Texas governor Greg Abbott has restricted drop boxes for absentee ballots to one per county (“Texas governor shuts down drop-off […]


Muni Bonds Turn Toward the Election

Author: John R. Mousseau, CFA, Post Date: October 6, 2020

Market Commentary - Cumberland Advisors - (Mousseau)

With the presidential election a month away, we start to mull over what the bond market might look like post-election day. While most polls have Vice-President Biden ahead by 6–7% points, we know the race has the potential to be much closer, since the 50 individual states decide the election by virtue of voting by […]


International Equity ETF Q3 Overview and Outlook

Author: William Witherell, Ph.D., Post Date: October 5, 2020

Market Commentary - Cumberland Advisors - William 'Bill' Witherell - International Equity ETF Q3 Overview and Outlook

The global economy is expected to have registered a stronger than anticipated rebound in the third quarter with record-breaking growth rates after output collapsed in the first half of the because of the COVID-19 pandemic. The reopening of businesses and the easing of lockdowns and other restrictions in many countries allowed the rapid pickup in […]


Trio to Trio with Laura Wazen

Author: David R. Kotok, Post Date: October 4, 2020

We have a medley of remarkable performances for you this Sunday – a little diversion from the daily political and pandemic fare. Let’s kick things off with a rousing flash-mob rendition of Beethoven’s Symphony No. 9, Ode to Joy, performed years before COVID-19 entered our lives. It lifts us now out of this moment and […]


Hope – An Update

Author: Robert Eisenbeis, Ph.D., Post Date: October 2, 2020

Cumberland Advisors Market Commentary - Hope – An Update - Robert-Eisenbeis, Ph.D.

Our commentary “FOMC: Hope Now Seems to Be a Strategy” (https://www.cumber.com/cumberland-advisors-market-commentary-fomc-hope-now-seems-to-be-a-strategy/) focused on the FOMC’s latest decision to keep its target for the federal funds rate between 0–.25%, to change its strategy for policy going forward to focus on shortfalls in labor markets from what the Committee perceives to be full employment, and to shift [Continued…]


Zika Pamphlet by David R. Kotok

Zika Download - Kotok

The Zika virus is mosquito-borne. The virus mutates frequently, just as all viruses do. And it can do serious damage to people. It is especially threatening to the fetus of a pregnant mother. It causes conditions, including microcephaly, which spell tragedy for the infant and the family. When it deals such damage to children, Zika imposes huge societal costs measured in the many millions of dollars. All this is documented in the writings that now constitute the chapters of this pamphlet.

https://www.cumber.com/zika/


Links to other websites or electronic media controlled or offered by Third-Parties (non-affiliates of Cumberland Advisors) are provided only as a reference and courtesy to our users. Cumberland Advisors has no control over such websites, does not recommend or endorse any opinions, ideas, products, information, or content of such sites, and makes no warranties as to the accuracy, completeness, reliability or suitability of their content. Cumberland Advisors hereby disclaims liability for any information, materials, products or services posted or offered at any of the Third-Party websites. The Third-Party may have a privacy and/or security policy different from that of Cumberland Advisors. Therefore, please refer to the specific privacy and security policies of the Third-Party when accessing their websites.

Sign up for our FREE Cumberland Market Commentaries

Cumberland Advisors Market Commentaries offer insights and analysis on upcoming, important economic issues that potentially impact global financial markets. Our team shares their thinking on global economic developments, market news and other factors that often influence investment opportunities and strategies.

Posted on: 10/24/2020 arrow Watch Video arrow
Cumberland-Advisors-Market-Update-2020-10-16

Cumberland Advisors Week in Review (Oct 12, 2020 – Oct 16, 2020)

The Cumberland Advisors Week in Review is a recap of news, commentary, and opinion from our team.

Week In Review

These are not revised assessments, and circumstances may have changed in the market from the time of original publication. We also include older commentaries that our editors have determined may be of interest to our audience. Your feedback is always welcome.

CUMBERLAND ADVISORS’ WEEKLY RECAP

As part of Cumberland Advisors’ continuous effort to maintain strong customer relationships, we offer this week’s short video discussing current market conditions and how we are positioning portfolios.

Dear Clients & Friends,

Thank you for joining Cumberland Advisors for this end-of-week update on market conditions, bonds & equities with Matt McAleer and John Mousseau, CFA.

Matt McAleer & Equities / ETFs

-Just what the doctor ordered!
-A little backing and filling, some drawdown midweek met with demand
-We have an interesting Blackrock table to share with you and what we find shocking
-We see nervousness with traders and investors today
-Most calls into our trading desk are about what’s going wrong or what’s going to go wrong
-Very few calls are asking “what can go right,” “what does next year look like,” or “what does the liquidity from the Fed look like?”
-It’s very important for a trader or investor to ask questions about what can go wrong and what can go right
-Matt gives some opinion on what he thinks is tilting things toward negative
-Are we a country in decline? Matt says, “no!”
-Conduct a web search on Messenger RNA (mRNA), fascinating science.
-Use some of your COVID-downtime to learn new things, mRNA as an example
-Where can some of our new discoveries take us down the road?
-Some discoveries and their associated companies will become spectacular successes in the future, something to keep an eye on

John Mousseau & Fixed Income / Munis

-John runs the numbers on interest rates, unemployment, CPI/PPI
-Yield move slowly upward over time
-Does the market expect a blue wave?
-Rates will continue to move up with anticipation of an improving economy
-Muni supply building, we expect to see some buying opportunities as this progresses
-Muni issuers looking to get their offerings into the market before the election
-Next week, looking at employment and new home sales

Please reach out with any questions/comments you may have about this update; we appreciate your calls, comments, and emails. Watch in the player above or at this link: https://youtu.be/is3g8hHxWnY

Stay safe, healthy, and have a great weekend.

-Matt McAleer & Cumberland Advisors

Matt enjoys your feedback. You can reach him at:
-Link to Matt’s Email: Matthew.McAleer@Cumber.com
-Link to Matt’s Twitter: https://twitter.com/MattMcAleer4
-Link to Matt’s LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/matthew-c-mcaleer/
-Call Matt: (800) 257-7013

Other questions or comments? Email us at info@cumber.com or give us a call at (800) 257-7013.

Contact Matt or any one of our advisors by following this link: https://www.cumber.com/our-people/

 


Cumberland Advisors Market Commentary

Cumberland Advisors Market Commentary offers insights and analysis on upcoming, important economic issues that potentially impact global financial markets. Our team shares their thinking on global economic developments, market news and other factors that often influence investment opportunities and strategies. Our readers appreciate its timeliness, depth of analysis, and quality of research.

To read current and past commentaries, visit https://www.cumber.com/category/market-commentary/


Insider Trading – the Case of Consumer Discretionary

Author: Leo Chen, Ph.D., Post Date: October 15, 2020

Leo Chen, Ph.D.We have recently published two commentaries regarding insider trading. You may find them here: https://www.cumber.com/cumberland-advisors-market-commentary-insider-trading-the-case-of-energy/ & https://www.cumber.com/cumberland-advisors-market-commentary-insider-trading-what-does-it-tell-us/. As the third quarter has just come to an end, we want to pick the third-quarter winner, Consumer Discretionary, as our latest insider trading study. Please see Chart 1 below for the sector’s third-quarter sector performance. Consumer Discretionary […]


Yogi: “It aint over”

Author: David R. Kotok, Post Date: October 14, 2020

Market Commentary - Cumberland Advisors - Yogi “It aint over” “It aint over till its over” is exactly how Yogi Berra signed this ball when I bought it at a charity auction decades ago. He did put a dot over each lower case i. He didn’t use an apostrophe in ain’t, nor in it’s, and he did use till instead of until. Yogi’s message is […]


SCOTUS

Author: , Post Date: October 12, 2020

Market Commentary - Cumberland Advisors - SCOTUSAmerica’s stock and bond markets seem to be accepting of the current SCOTUS nominee and the political controversy. The following passage is translated from the original French work De La Démocratie en Amérique (Democracy in America), written by Alexis de Tocqueville nearly 200 years ago: “The great difficulty was, not to devise the constitution of […]


Three Items to Consider

Author: David R. Kotok, Post Date: October 11, 2020

Market Commentary - Cumberland Advisors - Three Items to Consider Item 1. My friend Nick Colas of DataTrek sent along a link to a Lapham’s Quarterly piece by Francine Prose that dives deeply into previous pandemics around the world and draws some surprising parallels with the way our present political establishment has managed the pandemic. The author says, “What’s so startling about the texts and […]


Wildfires Out West

Author: Patricia Healy, CFA, Post Date: October 8, 2020

Patricia Healy, CFA

On Sunday, Bloomberg reported that this year’s California fires had scorched more ground than the last three years of fires combined. Higher temperatures and greater winds have contributed to the spread. Year-to-date, the California fires have covered 4 million acres in 8,200 fires throughout the state. Some 8,400 homes and buildings have been lost, and […]


Markets, Events, Economics

Author: David R. Kotok, Post Date: October 7, 2020

David R. Kotok

Market-moving events and data points are coming fast, and in a chaotic sequence. Here are some bullets we are watching. 1. The outlook for elections is still highly uncertain and volatile. Biden appears to be strengthening. Texas governor Greg Abbott has restricted drop boxes for absentee ballots to one per county (“Texas governor shuts down drop-off […]


Muni Bonds Turn Toward the Election

Author: John R. Mousseau, CFA, Post Date: October 6, 2020

Market Commentary - Cumberland Advisors - (Mousseau)

With the presidential election a month away, we start to mull over what the bond market might look like post-election day. While most polls have Vice-President Biden ahead by 6–7% points, we know the race has the potential to be much closer, since the 50 individual states decide the election by virtue of voting by […]


International Equity ETF Q3 Overview and Outlook

Author: William Witherell, Ph.D., Post Date: October 5, 2020

Market Commentary - Cumberland Advisors - William 'Bill' Witherell - International Equity ETF Q3 Overview and Outlook

The global economy is expected to have registered a stronger than anticipated rebound in the third quarter with record-breaking growth rates after output collapsed in the first half of the because of the COVID-19 pandemic. The reopening of businesses and the easing of lockdowns and other restrictions in many countries allowed the rapid pickup in […]


Trio to Trio with Laura Wazen

Author: David R. Kotok, Post Date: October 4, 2020

We have a medley of remarkable performances for you this Sunday – a little diversion from the daily political and pandemic fare. Let’s kick things off with a rousing flash-mob rendition of Beethoven’s Symphony No. 9, Ode to Joy, performed years before COVID-19 entered our lives. It lifts us now out of this moment and […]


Hope – An Update

Author: Robert Eisenbeis, Ph.D., Post Date: October 2, 2020

Cumberland Advisors Market Commentary - Hope – An Update - Robert-Eisenbeis, Ph.D.

Our commentary “FOMC: Hope Now Seems to Be a Strategy” (https://www.cumber.com/cumberland-advisors-market-commentary-fomc-hope-now-seems-to-be-a-strategy/) focused on the FOMC’s latest decision to keep its target for the federal funds rate between 0–.25%, to change its strategy for policy going forward to focus on shortfalls in labor markets from what the Committee perceives to be full employment, and to shift [Continued…]


Taxable Total Return 3rd Quarter Review

Author: Daniel Himelberger, Post Date: October 1, 2020

Cumberland Advisors Market Commentary - Taxable Total Return 3rd Quarter Review

Markets experienced volatility in the third quarter of 2020 as COVID-19 and the looming election continued to drive uncertainty regarding an economic rebound. The net result of the volatility left the Treasury market little changed on the quarter, while spreads on investment-grade corporates and taxable municipals continued to grind lower from the peaks set at [Continued…]


Beware of Private Equity in Retirement Plans – 3(38) Fiduciary Advisors Are Needed Instead

Author: Michael McNiven, Ph.D., Post Date: September 30, 2020

Cumberland Advisors Market Commentary - Michael McNiven, Ph.D.

Over the summer, the private equity industry received a very favorable ruling from the Department of Labor, allowing 401(k) plans to invest in private equity funds. Of course, the private equity industry and their lobbyists have long desired the opportunity to access 401(k) assets, and they are ecstatic. This opportunity opens up several trillion dollars [Continued…]


UK Facing Virus Second Wave and Brexit Deadline

Author: William Witherell, Ph.D., Post Date: September 29, 2020

Market Commentary - Cumberland Advisors - UK Facing Virus Second Wave and Brexit Deadline

United Kingdom stocks are underperforming the Eurozone markets as the nation faces the double challenges of an upsurge in virus infections and time running out in the deadlocked negotiations with the EU on Brexit. Over the past three months through September 24, the iShares MSCI United Kingdom ETF, EWU, lost 5.0% on a total return [Continued…]


CIO Overview & Outlook

Author: David R. Kotok, Post Date: September 28, 2020

David R. Kotok

The second quarter of 2020 saw the worst quarterly decline in economic terms since the Great Depression of the 1930s. The US economy literally fell off the COVID cliff. This downdraft side of a very sharp “V” has already made an economic bottom. (It was foretold by the March 23 low in the stock market.) [Continued…]


Zika Pamphlet by David R. Kotok

Zika Download - Kotok

The Zika virus is mosquito-borne. The virus mutates frequently, just as all viruses do. And it can do serious damage to people. It is especially threatening to the fetus of a pregnant mother. It causes conditions, including microcephaly, which spell tragedy for the infant and the family. When it deals such damage to children, Zika imposes huge societal costs measured in the many millions of dollars. All this is documented in the writings that now constitute the chapters of this pamphlet.

https://www.cumber.com/zika/


Links to other websites or electronic media controlled or offered by Third-Parties (non-affiliates of Cumberland Advisors) are provided only as a reference and courtesy to our users. Cumberland Advisors has no control over such websites, does not recommend or endorse any opinions, ideas, products, information, or content of such sites, and makes no warranties as to the accuracy, completeness, reliability or suitability of their content. Cumberland Advisors hereby disclaims liability for any information, materials, products or services posted or offered at any of the Third-Party websites. The Third-Party may have a privacy and/or security policy different from that of Cumberland Advisors. Therefore, please refer to the specific privacy and security policies of the Third-Party when accessing their websites.

Sign up for our FREE Cumberland Market Commentaries

Cumberland Advisors Market Commentaries offer insights and analysis on upcoming, important economic issues that potentially impact global financial markets. Our team shares their thinking on global economic developments, market news and other factors that often influence investment opportunities and strategies.

Posted on: 10/17/2020 arrow Watch Video arrow
Cumberland-Advisors-Market-Update-2020-10-09

Cumberland Advisors Week in Review (Oct 05, 2020 – Oct 09, 2020)

The Cumberland Advisors Week in Review is a recap of news, commentary, and opinion from our team.

Week In Review

These are not revised assessments, and circumstances may have changed in the market from the time of original publication. We also include older commentaries that our editors have determined may be of interest to our audience. Your feedback is always welcome.

CUMBERLAND ADVISORS’ WEEKLY RECAP

As part of Cumberland Advisors’ continuous effort to maintain strong customer relationships, we offer this week’s short video discussing current market conditions and how we are positioning portfolios.

Dear Clients & Friends,

Thank you for joining Cumberland Advisors for this end-of-week update on market conditions, bonds & equities with Matt McAleer and John Mousseau, CFA.

Matt McAleer & Equities / ETFs
– Wow! Cavalry charge in the equity market!
– Let’s talk about the market as discounting mechanism
– Charts to share today
– Chart 1 – A Factor Chart and what we can take away from the data
– Russell 2000 – the 2000 smallest names out of the Russell 3000, a broad index covering most of our US Equity Market
– The Russell 2000 up 6 1/2% this week is very encouraging
– We hear over and over that the market is expensive, let’s talk about that
– Chart 2 – Relative Strength and Alternative Energy
– We’ve found some ways to play in this space where Alternative Energy is outperforming the S&P 500, hat tip to David Kotok, our CIO
-The Moose is celebrating his 20th year at Cumberland Advisors!

 

John Mousseau & Fixed Income / Munis
– This week Treasury Yields moved up again
– We think that some clarity and sentiment around the expected election outcome is leading to higher interest rates over time
– This isn’t dramatic, just removing some of the pall hanging over the market
– This fall we’ll see rollover money in the market come into play and we expect that
– Jobless claims not surprising
– We see CPI, PPI coming up
– Corporate spreads came in a little bit this week
– Fixed Income Markets grudgingly moving higher, we think it’s good in the long run for fixed income investors because higher interest rates, as long as they’re manageable over time, lead to higher reinvestment rates. And that’s a good thing.

 

Please reach out with any questions/comments you may have about this update; we appreciate your calls, comments, and emails. Watch in the player above or at this link: https://youtu.be/y5CeDWIQ1ZQ

 

Stay safe, healthy, and have a great weekend.

-Matt McAleer & Cumberland Advisors

Matt enjoys your feedback. You can reach him at:
-Link to Matt’s Email: Matthew.McAleer@Cumber.com
-Link to Matt’s Twitter: https://twitter.com/MattMcAleer4
-Link to Matt’s LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/matthew-c-mcaleer/
-Call Matt: (800) 257-7013

Other questions or comments? Email us at info@cumber.com or give us a call at (800) 257-7013.

Contact Matt or any one of our advisors by following this link: https://www.cumber.com/our-people/

 


Cumberland Advisors Market Commentary

Cumberland Advisors Market Commentary offers insights and analysis on upcoming, important economic issues that potentially impact global financial markets. Our team shares their thinking on global economic developments, market news and other factors that often influence investment opportunities and strategies. Our readers appreciate its timeliness, depth of analysis, and quality of research.

To read current and past commentaries, visit https://www.cumber.com/category/market-commentary/


Wildfires Out West

Author: Patricia Healy, CFA, Post Date: October 8, 2020

Patricia Healy, CFA

On Sunday, Bloomberg reported that this year’s California fires had scorched more ground than the last three years of fires combined. Higher temperatures and greater winds have contributed to the spread. Year-to-date, the California fires have covered 4 million acres in 8,200 fires throughout the state. Some 8,400 homes and buildings have been lost, and […]


Markets, Events, Economics

Author: David R. Kotok, Post Date: October 7, 2020

David R. Kotok

Market-moving events and data points are coming fast, and in a chaotic sequence. Here are some bullets we are watching. 1. The outlook for elections is still highly uncertain and volatile. Biden appears to be strengthening. Texas governor Greg Abbott has restricted drop boxes for absentee ballots to one per county (“Texas governor shuts down drop-off […]


Muni Bonds Turn Toward the Election

Author: John R. Mousseau, CFA, Post Date: October 6, 2020

Market Commentary - Cumberland Advisors - (Mousseau)

With the presidential election a month away, we start to mull over what the bond market might look like post-election day. While most polls have Vice-President Biden ahead by 6–7% points, we know the race has the potential to be much closer, since the 50 individual states decide the election by virtue of voting by […]


International Equity ETF Q3 Overview and Outlook

Author: William Witherell, Ph.D., Post Date: October 5, 2020

Market Commentary - Cumberland Advisors - William 'Bill' Witherell - International Equity ETF Q3 Overview and Outlook

The global economy is expected to have registered a stronger than anticipated rebound in the third quarter with record-breaking growth rates after output collapsed in the first half of the because of the COVID-19 pandemic. The reopening of businesses and the easing of lockdowns and other restrictions in many countries allowed the rapid pickup in […]


Trio to Trio with Laura Wazen

Author: David R. Kotok, Post Date: October 4, 2020

We have a medley of remarkable performances for you this Sunday – a little diversion from the daily political and pandemic fare. Let’s kick things off with a rousing flash-mob rendition of Beethoven’s Symphony No. 9, Ode to Joy, performed years before COVID-19 entered our lives. It lifts us now out of this moment and […]


Hope – An Update

Author: Robert Eisenbeis, Ph.D., Post Date: October 2, 2020

Cumberland Advisors Market Commentary - Hope – An Update - Robert-Eisenbeis, Ph.D.

Our commentary “FOMC: Hope Now Seems to Be a Strategy” (https://www.cumber.com/cumberland-advisors-market-commentary-fomc-hope-now-seems-to-be-a-strategy/) focused on the FOMC’s latest decision to keep its target for the federal funds rate between 0–.25%, to change its strategy for policy going forward to focus on shortfalls in labor markets from what the Committee perceives to be full employment, and to shift [Continued…]


Taxable Total Return 3rd Quarter Review

Author: Daniel Himelberger, Post Date: October 1, 2020

Cumberland Advisors Market Commentary - Taxable Total Return 3rd Quarter Review

Markets experienced volatility in the third quarter of 2020 as COVID-19 and the looming election continued to drive uncertainty regarding an economic rebound. The net result of the volatility left the Treasury market little changed on the quarter, while spreads on investment-grade corporates and taxable municipals continued to grind lower from the peaks set at [Continued…]


Beware of Private Equity in Retirement Plans – 3(38) Fiduciary Advisors Are Needed Instead

Author: Michael McNiven, Ph.D., Post Date: September 30, 2020

Cumberland Advisors Market Commentary - Michael McNiven, Ph.D.

Over the summer, the private equity industry received a very favorable ruling from the Department of Labor, allowing 401(k) plans to invest in private equity funds. Of course, the private equity industry and their lobbyists have long desired the opportunity to access 401(k) assets, and they are ecstatic. This opportunity opens up several trillion dollars [Continued…]


UK Facing Virus Second Wave and Brexit Deadline

Author: William Witherell, Ph.D., Post Date: September 29, 2020

Market Commentary - Cumberland Advisors - UK Facing Virus Second Wave and Brexit Deadline

United Kingdom stocks are underperforming the Eurozone markets as the nation faces the double challenges of an upsurge in virus infections and time running out in the deadlocked negotiations with the EU on Brexit. Over the past three months through September 24, the iShares MSCI United Kingdom ETF, EWU, lost 5.0% on a total return [Continued…]


CIO Overview & Outlook

Author: David R. Kotok, Post Date: September 28, 2020

David R. Kotok

The second quarter of 2020 saw the worst quarterly decline in economic terms since the Great Depression of the 1930s. The US economy literally fell off the COVID cliff. This downdraft side of a very sharp “V” has already made an economic bottom. (It was foretold by the March 23 low in the stock market.) [Continued…]


Three Super New Moons (#28)

Author: David R. Kotok, Post Date: September 27, 2020

Market Commentary - Cumberland Advisors - Three Super New Moons (#28)

Sentiment & Statistical Indicators +Three Super New Moons (Item #28) Some indicators offer guidance. None is perfect. All stimulate thinking. Here’s a sampling about economics, financial markets, health, climate, politics, and, yes, even a forecast from astrology. We’ve saved that for last (#28). 1. The misery index is a long-established statistic. It is simply adding [Continued…]


Cumberland Responds to Barron’s

Author: David R. Kotok, John R. Mousseau, CFA & Patricia Healy, CFA, Post Date: September 23, 2020

Cumberland Advisors Market Commentary - Cumberland Responds to Barron's

Many municipal entities are under extreme stress and federal help is needed now, or these entities will have to reduce staff, swelling the ranks of the unemployed across the nation and reducing municipal services at the very time that demands for those services are at record levels. [Continued…]


Wildfire: Correction and Addition

Author: David R. Kotok, Post Date: September 22, 2020

Cumberland Advisors Market Commentary - Wildfire Correction and Addition

In our recent commentary “Wildfire: More Than a Song” https://www.cumber.com/cumberland-advisors-market-commentary-wildfire-more-than-a-song/, we stated that our nation’s federally owned forests “are housed in the Department of the Interior.” That is true up to a point: The Bureau of Land Management (BLM), which is an arm of the Department of the Interior, does manage 246 million acres of [Continued…]


Trump and Puerto Rico. Better late than never.

Author: David R. Kotok, Post Date: September 21, 2020

Market Commentary Puerto Rico

With much fanfare, on Friday, Sept. 18, President Trump abruptly shifted his policy on rebuilding Puerto Rico. Where he had often disparaged the island’s leaders and opposed rebuilding a power grid and other infrastructure that was destroyed by Hurricane Maria in September 2017, Trump now claimed, “I’m the best thing that ever happened to Puerto [Continued…]


Zika Pamphlet by David R. Kotok

Zika Download - Kotok

The Zika virus is mosquito-borne. The virus mutates frequently, just as all viruses do. And it can do serious damage to people. It is especially threatening to the fetus of a pregnant mother. It causes conditions, including microcephaly, which spell tragedy for the infant and the family. When it deals such damage to children, Zika imposes huge societal costs measured in the many millions of dollars. All this is documented in the writings that now constitute the chapters of this pamphlet.

https://www.cumber.com/zika/


Links to other websites or electronic media controlled or offered by Third-Parties (non-affiliates of Cumberland Advisors) are provided only as a reference and courtesy to our users. Cumberland Advisors has no control over such websites, does not recommend or endorse any opinions, ideas, products, information, or content of such sites, and makes no warranties as to the accuracy, completeness, reliability or suitability of their content. Cumberland Advisors hereby disclaims liability for any information, materials, products or services posted or offered at any of the Third-Party websites. The Third-Party may have a privacy and/or security policy different from that of Cumberland Advisors. Therefore, please refer to the specific privacy and security policies of the Third-Party when accessing their websites.

Sign up for our FREE Cumberland Market Commentaries

Cumberland Advisors Market Commentaries offer insights and analysis on upcoming, important economic issues that potentially impact global financial markets. Our team shares their thinking on global economic developments, market news and other factors that often influence investment opportunities and strategies.

Posted on: 10/08/2020 arrow Watch Video arrow
Cumberland-Advisors-Market-Update-20201002

Cumberland Advisors Week in Review (Sept 28, 2020 – Oct 02, 2020)

The Cumberland Advisors Week in Review is a recap of news, commentary, and opinion from our team.

Week In Review

These are not revised assessments, and circumstances may have changed in the market from the time of original publication. We also include older commentaries that our editors have determined may be of interest to our audience. Your feedback is always welcome.

CUMBERLAND ADVISORS’ WEEKLY RECAP

As part of Cumberland Advisors’ continuous effort to maintain strong customer relationships, we offer this week’s short video discussing current market conditions and how we are positioning portfolios.

Dear Clients & Friends,

Thank you for joining Cumberland Advisors for this end-of-week update on market conditions, bonds & equities with Matt McAleer and John Mousseau, CFA.

Matt McAleer & Equities / ETFs
– Volatility & Risk revisited
– Headlines creates Volatility
– Structural Damage creates Risk
– What are market leaders trying to tell us? Matt details.
– Overall, indexes very solid this week
– Russell 2000 positive today – let’s keep an eye on it
– Are things better than what the headlines are telling us?
– Portfolios this week – no buys and no sells – we like what we own

 

John Mousseau & Fixed Income / Munis
– Yields down on news of President Trump and the First Lady contracting COVID-19
– They rose a little on the news that it may be a mild case
– September, a very tight trading range
– Very low volatility in the bond market
– Some companies buying back debt – a sign of a move back toward normalcy
– The election will remove one key item of uncertainty off the table
– How about Yields & Inflation? John details.
– Municipal outflows, first time in 20 weeks
– Yields are low in favor of the issuers, not the investor
– We started to play defense in bond portfolios a few weeks ago
– We hope the President and the First Lady recover quickly

 

Please reach out with any questions/comments you may have about this update; we appreciate your calls, comments, and emails. Watch in the player above or at this link: https://youtu.be/nGs2n39u8G8

 

Stay safe, healthy, and have a great weekend.

-Matt McAleer & Cumberland Advisors

Matt enjoys your feedback. You can reach him at:
-Link to Matt’s Email: Matthew.McAleer@Cumber.com
-Link to Matt’s Twitter: https://twitter.com/MattMcAleer4
-Link to Matt’s LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/matthew-c-mcaleer/
-Call Matt: (800) 257-7013

Other questions or comments? Email us at info@cumber.com or give us a call at (800) 257-7013.

Contact Matt or any one of our advisors by following this link: https://www.cumber.com/our-people/


– Upcoming Event –

Cumberland Advisors is an Annual Sponsor of
the Global Interdependence Center

Executive Briefing Webinar, AI and Machine Learning Oct 06, 2020

The on Oct. 6 features an Executive Briefing on AI and Machine Learning, with a keynote from Patrick Harker, President of the .

Registration is complimentary: https://www.interdependence.org/events/browse/analyzing-pandemics-ai-and-machine-learning/


 


Cumberland Advisors Market Commentary

Cumberland Advisors Market Commentary offers insights and analysis on upcoming, important economic issues that potentially impact global financial markets. Our team shares their thinking on global economic developments, market news and other factors that often influence investment opportunities and strategies. Our readers appreciate its timeliness, depth of analysis, and quality of research.

To read current and past commentaries, visit https://www.cumber.com/category/market-commentary/


Hope – An Update

Author: Robert Eisenbeis, Ph.D., Post Date: October 2, 2020

Cumberland Advisors Market Commentary - Hope – An Update - Robert-Eisenbeis, Ph.D.

Our commentary “FOMC: Hope Now Seems to Be a Strategy” (https://www.cumber.com/cumberland-advisors-market-commentary-fomc-hope-now-seems-to-be-a-strategy/) focused on the FOMC’s latest decision to keep its target for the federal funds rate between 0–.25%, to change its strategy for policy going forward to focus on shortfalls in labor markets from what the Committee perceives to be full employment, and to shift [Continued…]


Taxable Total Return 3rd Quarter Review

Author: Daniel Himelberger, Post Date: October 1, 2020

Cumberland Advisors Market Commentary - Taxable Total Return 3rd Quarter Review

Markets experienced volatility in the third quarter of 2020 as COVID-19 and the looming election continued to drive uncertainty regarding an economic rebound. The net result of the volatility left the Treasury market little changed on the quarter, while spreads on investment-grade corporates and taxable municipals continued to grind lower from the peaks set at [Continued…]


Beware of Private Equity in Retirement Plans – 3(38) Fiduciary Advisors Are Needed Instead

Author: Michael McNiven, Ph.D., Post Date: September 30, 2020

Cumberland Advisors Market Commentary - Michael McNiven, Ph.D.

Over the summer, the private equity industry received a very favorable ruling from the Department of Labor, allowing 401(k) plans to invest in private equity funds. Of course, the private equity industry and their lobbyists have long desired the opportunity to access 401(k) assets, and they are ecstatic. This opportunity opens up several trillion dollars [Continued…]


UK Facing Virus Second Wave and Brexit Deadline

Author: William Witherell, Ph.D., Post Date: September 29, 2020

Market Commentary - Cumberland Advisors - UK Facing Virus Second Wave and Brexit Deadline

United Kingdom stocks are underperforming the Eurozone markets as the nation faces the double challenges of an upsurge in virus infections and time running out in the deadlocked negotiations with the EU on Brexit. Over the past three months through September 24, the iShares MSCI United Kingdom ETF, EWU, lost 5.0% on a total return [Continued…]


CIO Overview & Outlook

Author: David R. Kotok, Post Date: September 28, 2020

David R. Kotok

The second quarter of 2020 saw the worst quarterly decline in economic terms since the Great Depression of the 1930s. The US economy literally fell off the COVID cliff. This downdraft side of a very sharp “V” has already made an economic bottom. (It was foretold by the March 23 low in the stock market.) [Continued…]


Three Super New Moons (#28)

Author: David R. Kotok, Post Date: September 27, 2020

Market Commentary - Cumberland Advisors - Three Super New Moons (#28)

Sentiment & Statistical Indicators +Three Super New Moons (Item #28) Some indicators offer guidance. None is perfect. All stimulate thinking. Here’s a sampling about economics, financial markets, health, climate, politics, and, yes, even a forecast from astrology. We’ve saved that for last (#28). 1. The misery index is a long-established statistic. It is simply adding [Continued…]


Cumberland Responds to Barron’s

Author: David R. Kotok, John R. Mousseau, CFA & Patricia Healy, CFA, Post Date: September 23, 2020

Cumberland Advisors Market Commentary - Cumberland Responds to Barron's

Many municipal entities are under extreme stress and federal help is needed now, or these entities will have to reduce staff, swelling the ranks of the unemployed across the nation and reducing municipal services at the very time that demands for those services are at record levels. [Continued…]


Wildfire: Correction and Addition

Author: David R. Kotok, Post Date: September 22, 2020

Cumberland Advisors Market Commentary - Wildfire Correction and Addition

In our recent commentary “Wildfire: More Than a Song” https://www.cumber.com/cumberland-advisors-market-commentary-wildfire-more-than-a-song/, we stated that our nation’s federally owned forests “are housed in the Department of the Interior.” That is true up to a point: The Bureau of Land Management (BLM), which is an arm of the Department of the Interior, does manage 246 million acres of [Continued…]


Trump and Puerto Rico. Better late than never.

Author: David R. Kotok, Post Date: September 21, 2020

Market Commentary Puerto Rico

With much fanfare, on Friday, Sept. 18, President Trump abruptly shifted his policy on rebuilding Puerto Rico. Where he had often disparaged the island’s leaders and opposed rebuilding a power grid and other infrastructure that was destroyed by Hurricane Maria in September 2017, Trump now claimed, “I’m the best thing that ever happened to Puerto [Continued…]


Wildfire: More Than a Song

Author: David R. Kotok, Post Date: September 20, 2020

Cumberland Advisors Market Commentary - Wildfire More Than a Song

Let’s begin this missive with some remarks on wildfire issues from Philippa Dunne of TLR Analytics. Philippa has vast personal experience with fires and is one of our nation’s highly skilled analysts of labor data cohorts, including firefighters. “Over the last decades, yes decades, news pieces on short-handed fire-crews losing control of western fires have [Continued…]


FOMC: Hope Now Seems to Be a Strategy

Author: Robert Eisenbeis, Ph.D., Post Date: September 18, 2020

Cumberland Advisors Market Commentary - FOMC Hope Now Seems to Be a Strategy (Eisenbeis)

The FOMC finished its September deliberations and published its first statement and Summary of Economic Projections (SEPs) since the revision of its policy strategy was announced on the eve of the Kansas City Fed’s annual August Jackson Hole Symposium. The statement began by reiterating that the FOMC stands ready to employ its full range of [Continued…]


Bipartisan House Members: “Enough Is Enough”

Author: David R. Kotok, Post Date: September 17, 2020

The bipartisan House Problem Solvers Caucus (https://problemsolverscaucus-gottheimer.house.gov), led by Reps. Josh Gottheimer (D-NJ) and Tom Reed (R-NY) includes around 50 House members, both Republicans and Democrats. They have proposed a US pandemic aid package that amounts to $1.5 trillion and continues unemployment aid at $450/week, increasing over time to $600/week but not to exceed a [Continued…]


JOLTS – July

Author: Robert Eisenbeis, Ph.D., Post Date: September 16, 2020

Cumberland Advisors' Robert "Bob" Eisenbeis, Ph.D.

The BLS Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) data come out with a lag, so we are now just getting a look at the July numbers. They do, however, help fill in some of the labor dynamics that are occurring within the economy as we adjust to the COVID-19 pandemic shock. We know that [Continued…]


The Rise of Separately Managed Accounts – 2020 Update

Author: Patricia Healy, CFA, Post Date: September 15, 2020

Cumberland has utilized separately managed accounts (SMAs) to execute its fixed-income strategy since the company’s inception in 1973, long before SMAs were popularized in the early 2000s. The reasons for managing money in this fashion are the same today as they were then: • Transparency (you know what you own) • Flexibility to make strategic [Continued…]


Bob Eisenbeis and Howard Getson discuss AI, Investing, Trading, Algorithms, and more at Camp Kotok.

Bob Eisenbeis and Howard Getson discuss AI, Investing, Trading, Algorithms, how data is a new currency, and the “mating dance of algo-bots.” Is AI positioned to replace people in investing? How about trading? Valuable insights from Camp Kotok, August 2018.

Watch here: https://youtu.be/TU4nVSxrQeI


Links to other websites or electronic media controlled or offered by Third-Parties (non-affiliates of Cumberland Advisors) are provided only as a reference and courtesy to our users. Cumberland Advisors has no control over such websites, does not recommend or endorse any opinions, ideas, products, information, or content of such sites, and makes no warranties as to the accuracy, completeness, reliability or suitability of their content. Cumberland Advisors hereby disclaims liability for any information, materials, products or services posted or offered at any of the Third-Party websites. The Third-Party may have a privacy and/or security policy different from that of Cumberland Advisors. Therefore, please refer to the specific privacy and security policies of the Third-Party when accessing their websites.

Sign up for our FREE Cumberland Market Commentaries

Cumberland Advisors Market Commentaries offer insights and analysis on upcoming, important economic issues that potentially impact global financial markets. Our team shares their thinking on global economic developments, market news and other factors that often influence investment opportunities and strategies.

Posted on: 10/03/2020 arrow Watch Video arrow
Cumberland-Advisors-Market-Update-20200925

Cumberland Advisors Week in Review (Sept 21, 2020 – Sept 25, 2020)

The Cumberland Advisors Week in Review is a recap of news, commentary, and opinion from our team.

Week In Review

These are not revised assessments, and circumstances may have changed in the market from the time of original publication. We also include older commentaries that our editors have determined may be of interest to our audience. Your feedback is always welcome.

CUMBERLAND ADVISORS’ WEEKLY RECAP

As part of Cumberland Advisors’ continuous effort to maintain strong customer relationships, we offer this week’s short video discussing current market conditions and how we are positioning portfolios.

Dear Clients & Friends,

Thank you for joining Cumberland Advisors for this end-of-week update on market conditions, bonds & equities with Matt McAleer. John Mousseau has the day off.

Matt McAleer & Equities / ETFs

– Nice volatile week!
– Volatility and Risk are not the same
– We like to use volatility to add to strong areas on weakness – Matt explains
– Opportunity shifts the risk/reward scale in your favor
– Powerful ratios can put you in strong names that withstand market headwinds – Matt details
– Matt gives quick overviews of some of our strategies and how/why we’re putting cash to work
– Thoughts on investing in Alibaba
– We talk about Life Insurance – let’s talk about dividend yields and interest rates and how it affects this instrument
– Matt asks for your input on this subject

John Mousseau & Fixed Income / Munis

– John provides where yields are
– Quiet week in munis
– We’re seeing election jitters enter markets – we’ve seen this before
– Jobless rates a little higher than expected
– Continuing jobless claims down a little
– Home sales? Rockin’!
– John talks about the bond landscape
– Airports are fairing better than convention centers and stadiums but they still “have wood to chop” before they get back to normal
– As we get closer to a vaccine, the ability to access capital markets is so important for municipal issuers
– Some good news? Looks like Pelosi and Mnuchin are hammering out an agreement for more stimulus/relief that will include relief to state and local governments
– Be sure to watch debates on coming Tuesday

Please reach out with any questions/comments you may have about this update; we appreciate your calls, comments, and emails. Watch in the player above or at this link: https://youtu.be/aTaDczA6yEc

Have a great weekend.

-Matt McAleer & Cumberland Advisors

Matt enjoys your feedback. You can reach him at:
-Link to Matt’s Email: Matthew.McAleer@Cumber.com
-Link to Matt’s Twitter: https://twitter.com/MattMcAleer4
-Link to Matt’s LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/matthew-c-mcaleer/
-Call Matt: (800) 257-7013

Other questions or comments? Email us at info@cumber.com or give us a call at (800) 257-7013.

Contact Matt or any one of our advisors by following this link: https://www.cumber.com/our-people/


IN THE NEWS

 

Politico – Wall Street braces for election chaos

Quoted: David R. Kotok | Posted on: 09/25/2020 read more

The IRA: Powell Fed Embraces Monetary Relativity

Quoted: Robert Eisenbeis | Posted on: 09/23/2020 read more

Politico – Wall Street loses altitude

Quoted: David R. Kotok | Posted on: 09/18/2020 read more

BondBuyer – Puerto Rico debt deal reaches a turning point

Quoted: Shaun Burgess | Posted on: 09/11/2020 read more

July Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS)

Quoted: David R. Kotok | Posted on: 09/09/2020 read more

Politico – Economy to dominate the stretch run

Quoted: David R. Kotok | Posted on: 09/08/2020 read more

David Kotok on the Markets (Radio)

Quoted: David R. Kotok | Posted on: 09/02/2020 read more

 


More Cumberland Advisors News here:

https://www.cumber.com/news/


 


Cumberland Advisors Market Commentary

Cumberland Advisors Market Commentary offers insights and analysis on upcoming, important economic issues that potentially impact global financial markets. Our team shares their thinking on global economic developments, market news and other factors that often influence investment opportunities and strategies. Our readers appreciate its timeliness, depth of analysis, and quality of research.

To read current and past commentaries, visit https://www.cumber.com/category/market-commentary/


Cumberland Responds to Barron’s

Author: David R. Kotok, John R. Mousseau, CFA & Patricia Healy, CFA, Post Date: September 23, 2020

Cumberland Advisors Market Commentary - Cumberland Responds to Barron's

Many municipal entities are under extreme stress and federal help is needed now, or these entities will have to reduce staff, swelling the ranks of the unemployed across the nation and reducing municipal services at the very time that demands for those services are at record levels. [Continued…]


Wildfire: Correction and Addition

Author: David R. Kotok, Post Date: September 22, 2020

Cumberland Advisors Market Commentary - Wildfire Correction and Addition

In our recent commentary “Wildfire: More Than a Song” https://www.cumber.com/cumberland-advisors-market-commentary-wildfire-more-than-a-song/, we stated that our nation’s federally owned forests “are housed in the Department of the Interior.” That is true up to a point: The Bureau of Land Management (BLM), which is an arm of the Department of the Interior, does manage 246 million acres of [Continued…]


Trump and Puerto Rico. Better late than never.

Author: David R. Kotok, Post Date: September 21, 2020

Market Commentary Puerto Rico

With much fanfare, on Friday, Sept. 18, President Trump abruptly shifted his policy on rebuilding Puerto Rico. Where he had often disparaged the island’s leaders and opposed rebuilding a power grid and other infrastructure that was destroyed by Hurricane Maria in September 2017, Trump now claimed, “I’m the best thing that ever happened to Puerto [Continued…]


Wildfire: More Than a Song

Author: David R. Kotok, Post Date: September 20, 2020

Cumberland Advisors Market Commentary - Wildfire More Than a Song

Let’s begin this missive with some remarks on wildfire issues from Philippa Dunne of TLR Analytics. Philippa has vast personal experience with fires and is one of our nation’s highly skilled analysts of labor data cohorts, including firefighters. “Over the last decades, yes decades, news pieces on short-handed fire-crews losing control of western fires have [Continued…]


FOMC: Hope Now Seems to Be a Strategy

Author: Robert Eisenbeis, Ph.D., Post Date: September 18, 2020

Cumberland Advisors Market Commentary - FOMC Hope Now Seems to Be a Strategy (Eisenbeis)

The FOMC finished its September deliberations and published its first statement and Summary of Economic Projections (SEPs) since the revision of its policy strategy was announced on the eve of the Kansas City Fed’s annual August Jackson Hole Symposium. The statement began by reiterating that the FOMC stands ready to employ its full range of [Continued…]


Bipartisan House Members: “Enough Is Enough”

Author: David R. Kotok, Post Date: September 17, 2020

The bipartisan House Problem Solvers Caucus (https://problemsolverscaucus-gottheimer.house.gov), led by Reps. Josh Gottheimer (D-NJ) and Tom Reed (R-NY) includes around 50 House members, both Republicans and Democrats. They have proposed a US pandemic aid package that amounts to $1.5 trillion and continues unemployment aid at $450/week, increasing over time to $600/week but not to exceed a [Continued…]


JOLTS – July

Author: Robert Eisenbeis, Ph.D., Post Date: September 16, 2020

Cumberland Advisors' Robert "Bob" Eisenbeis, Ph.D.

The BLS Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) data come out with a lag, so we are now just getting a look at the July numbers. They do, however, help fill in some of the labor dynamics that are occurring within the economy as we adjust to the COVID-19 pandemic shock. We know that [Continued…]


The Rise of Separately Managed Accounts – 2020 Update

Author: Patricia Healy, CFA, Post Date: September 15, 2020

Cumberland has utilized separately managed accounts (SMAs) to execute its fixed-income strategy since the company’s inception in 1973, long before SMAs were popularized in the early 2000s. The reasons for managing money in this fashion are the same today as they were then: • Transparency (you know what you own) • Flexibility to make strategic [Continued…]


Insider Trading – the Case of Energy

Author: Leo Chen, Ph.D., Post Date: September 14, 2020

Cumberland Advisors Market Commentary - Insider Trading – the Case of Energy

Our last commentary on insider trading studied post-insider-purchase-spike (PIPS) market performance (https://www.cumber.com/cumberland-advisors-market-commentary-insider-trading-what-does-it-tell-us/). We found that the 6-month market return is 13.54% on average after the insider buy/sell ratio rises above 1. Today we will demonstrate the PIPS effect using the Energy sector as an example. Undoubtedly, corporate insiders possess an informational advantage over outsiders. The [Continued…]


Florida Schools & Florida’s Businesses?

Author: David R. Kotok, Post Date: September 13, 2020

Cumberland Advisors Market Commentary - Florida Schools & Florida's Businesses

Dear snowbirds and tourists: There is no question that Florida’s businesses, restaurants, hotels, fishing guides, and theme parks need you and want you. It’s simple, our state economy depends on visitors, and we want you to come and we want you to spend your money. We’re hurting. Some have asked us about visiting us at [Continued…]


Cuba and the Caribbean: What Now?

The Economies of Cuba & Puerto Rico Explored

February 22, 2018

USF Sarasota-Manatee, Cumberland Advisors, and the Global Interdependence Center hosted a series of talks on February 22, 2018 discussing current issues involving U.S. interests and current events in the Caribbean. In this video, economists have a look at the economic state of Cuba and Puerto Rico after a series of destructive storms.


Links to other websites or electronic media controlled or offered by Third-Parties (non-affiliates of Cumberland Advisors) are provided only as a reference and courtesy to our users. Cumberland Advisors has no control over such websites, does not recommend or endorse any opinions, ideas, products, information, or content of such sites, and makes no warranties as to the accuracy, completeness, reliability or suitability of their content. Cumberland Advisors hereby disclaims liability for any information, materials, products or services posted or offered at any of the Third-Party websites. The Third-Party may have a privacy and/or security policy different from that of Cumberland Advisors. Therefore, please refer to the specific privacy and security policies of the Third-Party when accessing their websites.

Sign up for our FREE Cumberland Market Commentaries

Cumberland Advisors Market Commentaries offer insights and analysis on upcoming, important economic issues that potentially impact global financial markets. Our team shares their thinking on global economic developments, market news and other factors that often influence investment opportunities and strategies.

Posted on: 09/26/2020 arrow Watch Video arrow
Cumberland-Advisors-Market-Update-20200918

Cumberland Advisors Week in Review (Sept 14, 2020 – Sept 18, 2020)

The Cumberland Advisors Week in Review is a recap of news, commentary, and opinion from our team.

Week In Review

These are not revised assessments, and circumstances may have changed in the market from the time of original publication. We also include older commentaries that our editors have determined may be of interest to our audience. Your feedback is always welcome.

CUMBERLAND ADVISORS’ WEEKLY RECAP

As part of Cumberland Advisors’ continuous effort to maintain strong customer relationships, we offer this week’s short video discussing current market conditions and how we are positioning portfolios.

Dear Clients & Friends,

Thank you for joining Cumberland Advisors for this end-of-week update on market conditions, bonds & equities with Matt McAleer. John Mousseau has the day off.

Matt McAleer & Equities / ETFs
– Volatility this week. What’s up, what’s down, and why. Matt breaks it down.
– Strong bid into the “heavies”, pay attention to normally overlooked industries.
– The Market will never change: it’s supply & demand. Matt goes into detail.
– What we did this week.
– Financials appreciate higher rates. Matt explains why.
– Have some interesting things to share with you next week, please join us again.Please reach out with any questions/comments you may have about this update; we appreciate your calls, comments, and emails. Watch in the player above or at this link:
https://youtu.be/TARrbRkbuL0Have a great weekend.

-Matt McAleer & Cumberland Advisors

Matt enjoys your feedback. You can reach him at:
-Link to Matt’s Email: Matthew.McAleer@Cumber.com
-Link to Matt’s Twitter: https://twitter.com/MattMcAleer4
-Link to Matt’s LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/matthew-c-mcaleer/
-Call Matt: (800) 257-7013

Other questions or comments? Email us at info@cumber.com or give us a call at (800) 257-7013.

Contact Matt or any one of our advisors by following this link: https://www.cumber.com/our-people/


IN THE NEWS

Politico-David-Kotok-20200918

Excerpt from…

Wall Street loses altitude

By BEN WHITE and AUBREE ELIZA WEAVER – 09/18/2020

Wall Street loses some altitude — Since peaking early this month around 29,000, the Dow has sagged back over 1,000 points amid signs of some economic slowing and the lack of any fresh stimulus out of Washington.

The next big inflection point for markets is likely the emergence of a Covid-19 vaccine, the prospect of which is keeping a bottom under any sell-offs (along with all the massive help from the Fed). When a real, tested and safe vaccine does emerge, it could catalyze another big rally.

Cumberland’s David Kotok emails: “The federal funding in advance and the production funding in advance has removed years of risk taking from pharma and transferred it to the US taxpayers. Never have we had such a risk transfer in public health. That is why we will have a 50-70 percent effective vaccine in distribution within a year. Risk transfer means acceleration of growth and upward markets are ahead.”

Read the full story at Politico: https://www.politico.com/newsletters/morning-money/2020/09/18/wall-street-loses-altitude-790478


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Cumberland Advisors Market Commentary

Cumberland Advisors Market Commentary offers insights and analysis on upcoming, important economic issues that potentially impact global financial markets. Our team shares their thinking on global economic developments, market news and other factors that often influence investment opportunities and strategies. Our readers appreciate its timeliness, depth of analysis, and quality of research.

To read current and past commentaries, visit https://www.cumber.com/category/market-commentary/


FOMC: Hope Now Seems to Be a Strategy

Author: Robert Eisenbeis, Ph.D., Post Date: September 18, 2020

Cumberland Advisors Market Commentary - FOMC Hope Now Seems to Be a Strategy (Eisenbeis) The FOMC finished its September deliberations and published its first statement and Summary of Economic Projections (SEPs) since the revision of its policy strategy was announced on the eve of the Kansas City Fed’s annual August Jackson Hole Symposium. The statement began by reiterating that the FOMC stands ready to employ its full range of […]


Bipartisan House Members: “Enough Is Enough”

Author: David R. Kotok, Post Date: September 17, 2020

The bipartisan House Problem Solvers Caucus (https://problemsolverscaucus-gottheimer.house.gov), led by Reps. Josh Gottheimer (D-NJ) and Tom Reed (R-NY) includes around 50 House members, both Republicans and Democrats. They have proposed a US pandemic aid package that amounts to $1.5 trillion and continues unemployment aid at $450/week, increasing over time to $600/week but not to exceed a […]


JOLTS – July

Author: Robert Eisenbeis, Ph.D., Post Date: September 16, 2020

Cumberland Advisors' Robert "Bob" Eisenbeis, Ph.D. The BLS Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) data come out with a lag, so we are now just getting a look at the July numbers. They do, however, help fill in some of the labor dynamics that are occurring within the economy as we adjust to the COVID-19 pandemic shock. We know that […]


The Rise of Separately Managed Accounts – 2020 Update

Author: Patricia Healy, CFA, Post Date: September 15, 2020

Cumberland has utilized separately managed accounts (SMAs) to execute its fixed-income strategy since the company’s inception in 1973, long before SMAs were popularized in the early 2000s. The reasons for managing money in this fashion are the same today as they were then: • Transparency (you know what you own) • Flexibility to make strategic […]


Insider Trading – the Case of Energy

Author: Leo Chen, Ph.D., Post Date: September 14, 2020

Cumberland Advisors Market Commentary - Insider Trading – the Case of Energy Our last commentary on insider trading studied post-insider-purchase-spike (PIPS) market performance (https://www.cumber.com/cumberland-advisors-market-commentary-insider-trading-what-does-it-tell-us/). We found that the 6-month market return is 13.54% on average after the insider buy/sell ratio rises above 1. Today we will demonstrate the PIPS effect using the Energy sector as an example. Undoubtedly, corporate insiders possess an informational advantage over outsiders. The […]


Florida Schools & Florida’s Businesses?

Author: David R. Kotok, Post Date: September 13, 2020

Cumberland Advisors Market Commentary - Florida Schools & Florida's Businesses Dear snowbirds and tourists: There is no question that Florida’s businesses, restaurants, hotels, fishing guides, and theme parks need you and want you. It’s simple, our state economy depends on visitors, and we want you to come and we want you to spend your money. We’re hurting. Some have asked us about visiting us at […]


9/11 & COVID-19

Author: David R. Kotok, Post Date: September 11, 2020

Cumberland Advisors Market Commentary - 911 & COVID-19

Nineteen years ago, September 11, 2001: 7:59 am: American Airlines Flight 11 departed Boston for Los Angeles. 8:14 am: United Airlines Flight 175 departed Boston for Los Angeles. 8:20 am: American Airlines Flight 77 departed Washington DC for Los Angeles. 8:42 am: United Airlines Flight 93 departed Newark for San Francisco. 8:46 am: American Airlines […]


Art Cashin’s Wisdom

Author: David R. Kotok, Post Date: September 10, 2020

Cumberland Advisors Market Commentary - Art Cashin’s Wisdom

Art Cashin, a UBS stalwart and CNBC commentator from the NYSE floor, is a dear friend and marvelous and sensitive gentleman. He is revered by those who know him as the dean of the investment university called the American stock market. Art was kind enough to give us permission to share his morning missive (September […]


The Second Wave of COVID-19 Confronts Western Europe

Author: William Witherell, Ph.D., Post Date: September 9, 2020

CA-Market-Commentary-The Second Wave of COVID-19 Confronts Western Europe

The rebound in the European economies following the sharp fall in March and April is threatened by a second wave of COVID-19 cases. As a result of vacation travel and an easing of restrictions, case growth in Western Europe has returned to levels last seen in May, with 1,094,194 confirmed cases as of the end […]


Labor Markets

Author: Robert Eisenbeis, Ph.D., Post Date: September 8, 2020

Cumberland Advisors' Robert "Bob" Eisenbeis, Ph.D.

In most data releases during the pandemic, it is possible to find some things that are positive and some that are negative, and the extent to which one thing is emphasized over another tends to be influenced in today’s world by politics. The new CES jobs report released by BLS is no exception. There is […]


Echoes of 1968

Author: David R. Kotok, Post Date: September 6, 2020

Market Commentary - Cumberland Advisors - Echoes of 1968

Brent Donnelly is a good friend and fellow camper at Leen’s Lodge. He is also a highly respected senior FX dealer at HSBC New York and the author of The Art of Currency Trading and the daily FX commentary AM/FX. On September 3, Brent penned “Echoes of ’68,” a thought-provoking comparison of the years 1968 […]


Crown Fires

Author: David R. Kotok, Post Date: September 3, 2020

Cumberland Advisors Market Commentary - Crown Fires

A COVID-19 resurgence seems about to begin. Schools reopening will be one of the vectors.  Please take time to listen to this August 27 podcast by Dr. Michael Osterholm, director of CIDRAP, the University of Minnesota’s Center for Infectious Disease Research and Policy. He entitles this episode “Crazy Days,” after the title of a song, […]


 

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Cumberland Advisors Market Commentaries offer insights and analysis on upcoming, important economic issues that potentially impact global financial markets. Our team shares their thinking on global economic developments, market news and other factors that often influence investment opportunities and strategies.

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Cumberland Advisors® is registered with the SEC under the Investment Advisers Act of 1940. All information contained herein is for informational purposes only and does not constitute a solicitation or offer to sell securities or investment advisory services. Such an offer can only be made in the states where Cumberland Advisors is either registered or is a Notice Filer or where an exemption from such registration or filing is available. New accounts will not be accepted unless and until all local regulations have been satisfied. This presentation does not purport to be a complete description of our performance or investment services. Please feel free to forward our commentaries (with proper attribution) to others who may be interested. It is not our intention to state or imply in any manner that past results and profitability is an indication of future performance. All material presented is compiled from sources believed to be reliable. However, accuracy cannot be guaranteed.
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