TV Appearances

Cumberland-Advisors-Market-Update-20200925

Cumberland Advisors Week in Review (Sept 21, 2020 – Sept 25, 2020)

The Cumberland Advisors Week in Review is a recap of news, commentary, and opinion from our team.

Week In Review

These are not revised assessments, and circumstances may have changed in the market from the time of original publication. We also include older commentaries that our editors have determined may be of interest to our audience. Your feedback is always welcome.

CUMBERLAND ADVISORS’ WEEKLY RECAP

As part of Cumberland Advisors’ continuous effort to maintain strong customer relationships, we offer this week’s short video discussing current market conditions and how we are positioning portfolios.

Dear Clients & Friends,

Thank you for joining Cumberland Advisors for this end-of-week update on market conditions, bonds & equities with Matt McAleer. John Mousseau has the day off.

Matt McAleer & Equities / ETFs

– Nice volatile week!
– Volatility and Risk are not the same
– We like to use volatility to add to strong areas on weakness – Matt explains
– Opportunity shifts the risk/reward scale in your favor
– Powerful ratios can put you in strong names that withstand market headwinds – Matt details
– Matt gives quick overviews of some of our strategies and how/why we’re putting cash to work
– Thoughts on investing in Alibaba
– We talk about Life Insurance – let’s talk about dividend yields and interest rates and how it affects this instrument
– Matt asks for your input on this subject

John Mousseau & Fixed Income / Munis

– John provides where yields are
– Quiet week in munis
– We’re seeing election jitters enter markets – we’ve seen this before
– Jobless rates a little higher than expected
– Continuing jobless claims down a little
– Home sales? Rockin’!
– John talks about the bond landscape
– Airports are fairing better than convention centers and stadiums but they still “have wood to chop” before they get back to normal
– As we get closer to a vaccine, the ability to access capital markets is so important for municipal issuers
– Some good news? Looks like Pelosi and Mnuchin are hammering out an agreement for more stimulus/relief that will include relief to state and local governments
– Be sure to watch debates on coming Tuesday

Please reach out with any questions/comments you may have about this update; we appreciate your calls, comments, and emails. Watch in the player above or at this link: https://youtu.be/aTaDczA6yEc

Have a great weekend.

-Matt McAleer & Cumberland Advisors

Matt enjoys your feedback. You can reach him at:
-Link to Matt’s Email: Matthew.McAleer@Cumber.com
-Link to Matt’s Twitter: https://twitter.com/MattMcAleer4
-Link to Matt’s LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/matthew-c-mcaleer/
-Call Matt: (800) 257-7013

Other questions or comments? Email us at info@cumber.com or give us a call at (800) 257-7013.

Contact Matt or any one of our advisors by following this link: https://www.cumber.com/our-people/


IN THE NEWS

 

Politico – Wall Street braces for election chaos

Quoted: David R. Kotok | Posted on: 09/25/2020 read more

The IRA: Powell Fed Embraces Monetary Relativity

Quoted: Robert Eisenbeis | Posted on: 09/23/2020 read more

Politico – Wall Street loses altitude

Quoted: David R. Kotok | Posted on: 09/18/2020 read more

BondBuyer – Puerto Rico debt deal reaches a turning point

Quoted: Shaun Burgess | Posted on: 09/11/2020 read more

July Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS)

Quoted: David R. Kotok | Posted on: 09/09/2020 read more

Politico – Economy to dominate the stretch run

Quoted: David R. Kotok | Posted on: 09/08/2020 read more

David Kotok on the Markets (Radio)

Quoted: David R. Kotok | Posted on: 09/02/2020 read more

 


More Cumberland Advisors News here:

https://www.cumber.com/news/


 


Cumberland Advisors Market Commentary

Cumberland Advisors Market Commentary offers insights and analysis on upcoming, important economic issues that potentially impact global financial markets. Our team shares their thinking on global economic developments, market news and other factors that often influence investment opportunities and strategies. Our readers appreciate its timeliness, depth of analysis, and quality of research.

To read current and past commentaries, visit https://www.cumber.com/category/market-commentary/


Cumberland Responds to Barron’s

Author: David R. Kotok, John R. Mousseau, CFA & Patricia Healy, CFA, Post Date: September 23, 2020

Cumberland Advisors Market Commentary - Cumberland Responds to Barron's

Many municipal entities are under extreme stress and federal help is needed now, or these entities will have to reduce staff, swelling the ranks of the unemployed across the nation and reducing municipal services at the very time that demands for those services are at record levels. [Continued…]


Wildfire: Correction and Addition

Author: David R. Kotok, Post Date: September 22, 2020

Cumberland Advisors Market Commentary - Wildfire Correction and Addition

In our recent commentary “Wildfire: More Than a Song” https://www.cumber.com/cumberland-advisors-market-commentary-wildfire-more-than-a-song/, we stated that our nation’s federally owned forests “are housed in the Department of the Interior.” That is true up to a point: The Bureau of Land Management (BLM), which is an arm of the Department of the Interior, does manage 246 million acres of [Continued…]


Trump and Puerto Rico. Better late than never.

Author: David R. Kotok, Post Date: September 21, 2020

Market Commentary Puerto Rico

With much fanfare, on Friday, Sept. 18, President Trump abruptly shifted his policy on rebuilding Puerto Rico. Where he had often disparaged the island’s leaders and opposed rebuilding a power grid and other infrastructure that was destroyed by Hurricane Maria in September 2017, Trump now claimed, “I’m the best thing that ever happened to Puerto [Continued…]


Wildfire: More Than a Song

Author: David R. Kotok, Post Date: September 20, 2020

Cumberland Advisors Market Commentary - Wildfire More Than a Song

Let’s begin this missive with some remarks on wildfire issues from Philippa Dunne of TLR Analytics. Philippa has vast personal experience with fires and is one of our nation’s highly skilled analysts of labor data cohorts, including firefighters. “Over the last decades, yes decades, news pieces on short-handed fire-crews losing control of western fires have [Continued…]


FOMC: Hope Now Seems to Be a Strategy

Author: Robert Eisenbeis, Ph.D., Post Date: September 18, 2020

Cumberland Advisors Market Commentary - FOMC Hope Now Seems to Be a Strategy (Eisenbeis)

The FOMC finished its September deliberations and published its first statement and Summary of Economic Projections (SEPs) since the revision of its policy strategy was announced on the eve of the Kansas City Fed’s annual August Jackson Hole Symposium. The statement began by reiterating that the FOMC stands ready to employ its full range of [Continued…]


Bipartisan House Members: “Enough Is Enough”

Author: David R. Kotok, Post Date: September 17, 2020

The bipartisan House Problem Solvers Caucus (https://problemsolverscaucus-gottheimer.house.gov), led by Reps. Josh Gottheimer (D-NJ) and Tom Reed (R-NY) includes around 50 House members, both Republicans and Democrats. They have proposed a US pandemic aid package that amounts to $1.5 trillion and continues unemployment aid at $450/week, increasing over time to $600/week but not to exceed a [Continued…]


JOLTS – July

Author: Robert Eisenbeis, Ph.D., Post Date: September 16, 2020

Cumberland Advisors' Robert "Bob" Eisenbeis, Ph.D.

The BLS Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) data come out with a lag, so we are now just getting a look at the July numbers. They do, however, help fill in some of the labor dynamics that are occurring within the economy as we adjust to the COVID-19 pandemic shock. We know that [Continued…]


The Rise of Separately Managed Accounts – 2020 Update

Author: Patricia Healy, CFA, Post Date: September 15, 2020

Cumberland has utilized separately managed accounts (SMAs) to execute its fixed-income strategy since the company’s inception in 1973, long before SMAs were popularized in the early 2000s. The reasons for managing money in this fashion are the same today as they were then: • Transparency (you know what you own) • Flexibility to make strategic [Continued…]


Insider Trading – the Case of Energy

Author: Leo Chen, Ph.D., Post Date: September 14, 2020

Cumberland Advisors Market Commentary - Insider Trading – the Case of Energy

Our last commentary on insider trading studied post-insider-purchase-spike (PIPS) market performance (https://www.cumber.com/cumberland-advisors-market-commentary-insider-trading-what-does-it-tell-us/). We found that the 6-month market return is 13.54% on average after the insider buy/sell ratio rises above 1. Today we will demonstrate the PIPS effect using the Energy sector as an example. Undoubtedly, corporate insiders possess an informational advantage over outsiders. The [Continued…]


Florida Schools & Florida’s Businesses?

Author: David R. Kotok, Post Date: September 13, 2020

Cumberland Advisors Market Commentary - Florida Schools & Florida's Businesses

Dear snowbirds and tourists: There is no question that Florida’s businesses, restaurants, hotels, fishing guides, and theme parks need you and want you. It’s simple, our state economy depends on visitors, and we want you to come and we want you to spend your money. We’re hurting. Some have asked us about visiting us at [Continued…]


Cuba and the Caribbean: What Now?

The Economies of Cuba & Puerto Rico Explored

February 22, 2018

USF Sarasota-Manatee, Cumberland Advisors, and the Global Interdependence Center hosted a series of talks on February 22, 2018 discussing current issues involving U.S. interests and current events in the Caribbean. In this video, economists have a look at the economic state of Cuba and Puerto Rico after a series of destructive storms.


Links to other websites or electronic media controlled or offered by Third-Parties (non-affiliates of Cumberland Advisors) are provided only as a reference and courtesy to our users. Cumberland Advisors has no control over such websites, does not recommend or endorse any opinions, ideas, products, information, or content of such sites, and makes no warranties as to the accuracy, completeness, reliability or suitability of their content. Cumberland Advisors hereby disclaims liability for any information, materials, products or services posted or offered at any of the Third-Party websites. The Third-Party may have a privacy and/or security policy different from that of Cumberland Advisors. Therefore, please refer to the specific privacy and security policies of the Third-Party when accessing their websites.

Sign up for our FREE Cumberland Market Commentaries

Cumberland Advisors Market Commentaries offer insights and analysis on upcoming, important economic issues that potentially impact global financial markets. Our team shares their thinking on global economic developments, market news and other factors that often influence investment opportunities and strategies.

Posted on: 09/26/2020 arrow Watch Video arrow
Cumberland-Advisors-Market-Update-20200918

Cumberland Advisors Week in Review (Sept 14, 2020 – Sept 18, 2020)

The Cumberland Advisors Week in Review is a recap of news, commentary, and opinion from our team.

Week In Review

These are not revised assessments, and circumstances may have changed in the market from the time of original publication. We also include older commentaries that our editors have determined may be of interest to our audience. Your feedback is always welcome.

CUMBERLAND ADVISORS’ WEEKLY RECAP

As part of Cumberland Advisors’ continuous effort to maintain strong customer relationships, we offer this week’s short video discussing current market conditions and how we are positioning portfolios.

Dear Clients & Friends,

Thank you for joining Cumberland Advisors for this end-of-week update on market conditions, bonds & equities with Matt McAleer. John Mousseau has the day off.

Matt McAleer & Equities / ETFs
– Volatility this week. What’s up, what’s down, and why. Matt breaks it down.
– Strong bid into the “heavies”, pay attention to normally overlooked industries.
– The Market will never change: it’s supply & demand. Matt goes into detail.
– What we did this week.
– Financials appreciate higher rates. Matt explains why.
– Have some interesting things to share with you next week, please join us again.Please reach out with any questions/comments you may have about this update; we appreciate your calls, comments, and emails. Watch in the player above or at this link:
https://youtu.be/TARrbRkbuL0Have a great weekend.

-Matt McAleer & Cumberland Advisors

Matt enjoys your feedback. You can reach him at:
-Link to Matt’s Email: Matthew.McAleer@Cumber.com
-Link to Matt’s Twitter: https://twitter.com/MattMcAleer4
-Link to Matt’s LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/matthew-c-mcaleer/
-Call Matt: (800) 257-7013

Other questions or comments? Email us at info@cumber.com or give us a call at (800) 257-7013.

Contact Matt or any one of our advisors by following this link: https://www.cumber.com/our-people/


IN THE NEWS

Politico-David-Kotok-20200918

Excerpt from…

Wall Street loses altitude

By BEN WHITE and AUBREE ELIZA WEAVER – 09/18/2020

Wall Street loses some altitude — Since peaking early this month around 29,000, the Dow has sagged back over 1,000 points amid signs of some economic slowing and the lack of any fresh stimulus out of Washington.

The next big inflection point for markets is likely the emergence of a Covid-19 vaccine, the prospect of which is keeping a bottom under any sell-offs (along with all the massive help from the Fed). When a real, tested and safe vaccine does emerge, it could catalyze another big rally.

Cumberland’s David Kotok emails: “The federal funding in advance and the production funding in advance has removed years of risk taking from pharma and transferred it to the US taxpayers. Never have we had such a risk transfer in public health. That is why we will have a 50-70 percent effective vaccine in distribution within a year. Risk transfer means acceleration of growth and upward markets are ahead.”

Read the full story at Politico: https://www.politico.com/newsletters/morning-money/2020/09/18/wall-street-loses-altitude-790478


More Cumberland Advisors News here:

https://www.cumber.com/news/


Upcoming Event

Cumberland Advisors is an Annual Sponsor of

the Global Interdependence Center

GIC - Monetary Policy with James Bullard, Ph.D.

GIC’s next Executive Briefing will explore monetary policy with James Bullard, Ph.D., President and CEO of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. Join them Thursday, September 24 at 12:00 p.m. ET.

Complimentary registration: https://bit.ly/33DvgLX


Cumberland Advisors Market Commentary

Cumberland Advisors Market Commentary offers insights and analysis on upcoming, important economic issues that potentially impact global financial markets. Our team shares their thinking on global economic developments, market news and other factors that often influence investment opportunities and strategies. Our readers appreciate its timeliness, depth of analysis, and quality of research.

To read current and past commentaries, visit https://www.cumber.com/category/market-commentary/


FOMC: Hope Now Seems to Be a Strategy

Author: Robert Eisenbeis, Ph.D., Post Date: September 18, 2020

Cumberland Advisors Market Commentary - FOMC Hope Now Seems to Be a Strategy (Eisenbeis) The FOMC finished its September deliberations and published its first statement and Summary of Economic Projections (SEPs) since the revision of its policy strategy was announced on the eve of the Kansas City Fed’s annual August Jackson Hole Symposium. The statement began by reiterating that the FOMC stands ready to employ its full range of […]


Bipartisan House Members: “Enough Is Enough”

Author: David R. Kotok, Post Date: September 17, 2020

The bipartisan House Problem Solvers Caucus (https://problemsolverscaucus-gottheimer.house.gov), led by Reps. Josh Gottheimer (D-NJ) and Tom Reed (R-NY) includes around 50 House members, both Republicans and Democrats. They have proposed a US pandemic aid package that amounts to $1.5 trillion and continues unemployment aid at $450/week, increasing over time to $600/week but not to exceed a […]


JOLTS – July

Author: Robert Eisenbeis, Ph.D., Post Date: September 16, 2020

Cumberland Advisors' Robert "Bob" Eisenbeis, Ph.D. The BLS Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) data come out with a lag, so we are now just getting a look at the July numbers. They do, however, help fill in some of the labor dynamics that are occurring within the economy as we adjust to the COVID-19 pandemic shock. We know that […]


The Rise of Separately Managed Accounts – 2020 Update

Author: Patricia Healy, CFA, Post Date: September 15, 2020

Cumberland has utilized separately managed accounts (SMAs) to execute its fixed-income strategy since the company’s inception in 1973, long before SMAs were popularized in the early 2000s. The reasons for managing money in this fashion are the same today as they were then: • Transparency (you know what you own) • Flexibility to make strategic […]


Insider Trading – the Case of Energy

Author: Leo Chen, Ph.D., Post Date: September 14, 2020

Cumberland Advisors Market Commentary - Insider Trading – the Case of Energy Our last commentary on insider trading studied post-insider-purchase-spike (PIPS) market performance (https://www.cumber.com/cumberland-advisors-market-commentary-insider-trading-what-does-it-tell-us/). We found that the 6-month market return is 13.54% on average after the insider buy/sell ratio rises above 1. Today we will demonstrate the PIPS effect using the Energy sector as an example. Undoubtedly, corporate insiders possess an informational advantage over outsiders. The […]


Florida Schools & Florida’s Businesses?

Author: David R. Kotok, Post Date: September 13, 2020

Cumberland Advisors Market Commentary - Florida Schools & Florida's Businesses Dear snowbirds and tourists: There is no question that Florida’s businesses, restaurants, hotels, fishing guides, and theme parks need you and want you. It’s simple, our state economy depends on visitors, and we want you to come and we want you to spend your money. We’re hurting. Some have asked us about visiting us at […]


9/11 & COVID-19

Author: David R. Kotok, Post Date: September 11, 2020

Cumberland Advisors Market Commentary - 911 & COVID-19

Nineteen years ago, September 11, 2001: 7:59 am: American Airlines Flight 11 departed Boston for Los Angeles. 8:14 am: United Airlines Flight 175 departed Boston for Los Angeles. 8:20 am: American Airlines Flight 77 departed Washington DC for Los Angeles. 8:42 am: United Airlines Flight 93 departed Newark for San Francisco. 8:46 am: American Airlines […]


Art Cashin’s Wisdom

Author: David R. Kotok, Post Date: September 10, 2020

Cumberland Advisors Market Commentary - Art Cashin’s Wisdom

Art Cashin, a UBS stalwart and CNBC commentator from the NYSE floor, is a dear friend and marvelous and sensitive gentleman. He is revered by those who know him as the dean of the investment university called the American stock market. Art was kind enough to give us permission to share his morning missive (September […]


The Second Wave of COVID-19 Confronts Western Europe

Author: William Witherell, Ph.D., Post Date: September 9, 2020

CA-Market-Commentary-The Second Wave of COVID-19 Confronts Western Europe

The rebound in the European economies following the sharp fall in March and April is threatened by a second wave of COVID-19 cases. As a result of vacation travel and an easing of restrictions, case growth in Western Europe has returned to levels last seen in May, with 1,094,194 confirmed cases as of the end […]


Labor Markets

Author: Robert Eisenbeis, Ph.D., Post Date: September 8, 2020

Cumberland Advisors' Robert "Bob" Eisenbeis, Ph.D.

In most data releases during the pandemic, it is possible to find some things that are positive and some that are negative, and the extent to which one thing is emphasized over another tends to be influenced in today’s world by politics. The new CES jobs report released by BLS is no exception. There is […]


Echoes of 1968

Author: David R. Kotok, Post Date: September 6, 2020

Market Commentary - Cumberland Advisors - Echoes of 1968

Brent Donnelly is a good friend and fellow camper at Leen’s Lodge. He is also a highly respected senior FX dealer at HSBC New York and the author of The Art of Currency Trading and the daily FX commentary AM/FX. On September 3, Brent penned “Echoes of ’68,” a thought-provoking comparison of the years 1968 […]


Crown Fires

Author: David R. Kotok, Post Date: September 3, 2020

Cumberland Advisors Market Commentary - Crown Fires

A COVID-19 resurgence seems about to begin. Schools reopening will be one of the vectors.  Please take time to listen to this August 27 podcast by Dr. Michael Osterholm, director of CIDRAP, the University of Minnesota’s Center for Infectious Disease Research and Policy. He entitles this episode “Crazy Days,” after the title of a song, […]


 

Links to other websites or electronic media controlled or offered by Third-Parties (non-affiliates of Cumberland Advisors) are provided only as a reference and courtesy to our users. Cumberland Advisors has no control over such websites, does not recommend or endorse any opinions, ideas, products, information, or content of such sites, and makes no warranties as to the accuracy, completeness, reliability or suitability of their content. Cumberland Advisors hereby disclaims liability for any information, materials, products or services posted or offered at any of the Third-Party websites. The Third-Party may have a privacy and/or security policy different from that of Cumberland Advisors. Therefore, please refer to the specific privacy and security policies of the Third-Party when accessing their websites.

Sign up for our FREE Cumberland Market Commentaries

Cumberland Advisors Market Commentaries offer insights and analysis on upcoming, important economic issues that potentially impact global financial markets. Our team shares their thinking on global economic developments, market news and other factors that often influence investment opportunities and strategies.

Posted on: 09/19/2020 arrow Watch Video arrow
Cumberland-Advisors-Market-Update-20200911

Cumberland Advisors Week in Review (Sept 07, 2020 – Sept 11, 2020)

The Cumberland Advisors Week in Review is a recap of news, commentary, and opinion from our team.

Week In Review

These are not revised assessments, and circumstances may have changed in the market from the time of original publication. We also include older commentaries that our editors have determined may be of interest to our audience. Your feedback is always welcome.

CUMBERLAND ADVISORS’ WEEKLY RECAP

As part of Cumberland Advisors’ continuous effort to maintain strong customer relationships, we offer this week’s short video discussing current market conditions and how we are positioning portfolios.

Dear Clients & Friends,

Thank you for joining Cumberland Advisors for this end-of-week update on market conditions, bonds & equities with Matt McAleer and John Mousseau, CFA.

This week:

Matt McAleer & Equities / ETFs
-Somber September 11 anniversary today
-S&P down 3-3.25% on the week
-I previously shared a chart showing that the internals of the market were starting to roll over a little bit
-Advanced declines were getting soft even though indexes in the third week of August were hitting year to date highs
-It told us to be a little cautious – Matt explains
-Basic Materials and Transports have something to tell us
-Matt talks about some pullbacks and Cumberland strategies that raised cash
-What about International and relative strength?
-Europe? Asia? Drilling down to China & Japan.
-Charts below referenced in the video.

ONE MONTH CHART

One Month Chart
  

THREE MONTH CHART

Three Month Performance

John Mousseau & Fixed Income / Munis
-I encourage you to read David Kotok’s commentary today on his experience at the World Trade Center on 9/11
-I was at the firm that day and recall what David describes vividly
-9/11 commentary link: https://www.cumber.com/cumberland-advisors-market-commentary-9-11-covid-19/
-Treasury Yield declined small amount
-Jobless claims were a little disappointing
-Good news? New claims were under a million.
-CPI creeped up from 1.6 to 1.7, we expect eventually 2-2.4 which it had been for a number of years
-Quiet week for Munis for this holiday week
-We see visible supply moving from 12 to 15 billion next week
-Traditionally, this time of year is when supply starts to build
-We expect some decent buying opportunities going into fall
-John shares some observations about travel in the Midwest and attitudes about the economy
-We wish everyone a good weekend and a somber remembrance this September 11th

 

Please reach out with any questions/comments you may have about this update; we appreciate your calls, comments, and emails. Watch in the player above or at this link: https://youtu.be/-LLhhzmrPuE

Stay safe, healthy, and have a great weekend.

-Matt McAleer & Cumberland Advisors

Matt enjoys your feedback. You can reach him at:
-Link to Matt’s Email: Matthew.McAleer@Cumber.com
-Link to Matt’s Twitter: https://twitter.com/MattMcAleer4
-Link to Matt’s LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/matthew-c-mcaleer/
-Call Matt: (800) 257-7013

Other questions or comments? Email us at info@cumber.com or give us a call at (800) 257-7013.

Contact Matt or any one of our advisors by following this link: https://www.cumber.com/our-people/


IN THE NEWS

Cumberland Advisors In The News


Upcoming Event

Cumberland Advisors is an Annual Sponsor of

the Global Interdependence Center

Executive Briefing Webinar, COVID-19 and Climate Change - Sept 15 1280w

GIC’s next Executive Briefing will explore COVID-19 and Climate Change with Bob Bunting, the CEO of the Climate Adaptation and Mitigation Center. Learn how hurricanes, heat waves, and forest fires have continued their worrying trends and why it’s time to move forward with adaptation and mitigation until global solutions emerge in the decades ahead. Moderated by GIC Chair, Kathleen Stephansen, Senior Economist for Haver Analytics and Trustee of EQAT Trust Funds.

Tuesday, September 15, 2020 | 4:00 – 5:00 p.m. ET, via Zoom.

No-cost registration here: https://buff.ly/2Rk2eLF


Cumberland Advisors Market Commentary

Cumberland Advisors Market Commentary offers insights and analysis on upcoming, important economic issues that potentially impact global financial markets. Our team shares their thinking on global economic developments, market news and other factors that often influence investment opportunities and strategies. Our readers appreciate its timeliness, depth of analysis, and quality of research.

To read current and past commentaries, visit https://www.cumber.com/category/market-commentary/


9/11 & COVID-19

Author: David R. Kotok, Post Date: September 11, 2020

Cumberland Advisors Market Commentary - 911 & COVID-19

Nineteen years ago, September 11, 2001: 7:59 am: American Airlines Flight 11 departed Boston for Los Angeles. 8:14 am: United Airlines Flight 175 departed Boston for Los Angeles. 8:20 am: American Airlines Flight 77 departed Washington DC for Los Angeles. 8:42 am: United Airlines Flight 93 departed Newark for San Francisco. 8:46 am: American Airlines […]


Art Cashin’s Wisdom

Author: David R. Kotok, Post Date: September 10, 2020

Cumberland Advisors Market Commentary - Art Cashin’s Wisdom

Art Cashin, a UBS stalwart and CNBC commentator from the NYSE floor, is a dear friend and marvelous and sensitive gentleman. He is revered by those who know him as the dean of the investment university called the American stock market. Art was kind enough to give us permission to share his morning missive (September […]


The Second Wave of COVID-19 Confronts Western Europe

Author: William Witherell, Ph.D., Post Date: September 9, 2020

CA-Market-Commentary-The Second Wave of COVID-19 Confronts Western Europe

The rebound in the European economies following the sharp fall in March and April is threatened by a second wave of COVID-19 cases. As a result of vacation travel and an easing of restrictions, case growth in Western Europe has returned to levels last seen in May, with 1,094,194 confirmed cases as of the end […]


Labor Markets

Author: Robert Eisenbeis, Ph.D., Post Date: September 8, 2020

Cumberland Advisors' Robert "Bob" Eisenbeis, Ph.D.

In most data releases during the pandemic, it is possible to find some things that are positive and some that are negative, and the extent to which one thing is emphasized over another tends to be influenced in today’s world by politics. The new CES jobs report released by BLS is no exception. There is […]


Echoes of 1968

Author: David R. Kotok, Post Date: September 6, 2020

Market Commentary - Cumberland Advisors - Echoes of 1968

Brent Donnelly is a good friend and fellow camper at Leen’s Lodge. He is also a highly respected senior FX dealer at HSBC New York and the author of The Art of Currency Trading and the daily FX commentary AM/FX. On September 3, Brent penned “Echoes of ’68,” a thought-provoking comparison of the years 1968 […]


Crown Fires

Author: David R. Kotok, Post Date: September 3, 2020

Cumberland Advisors Market Commentary - Crown Fires

A COVID-19 resurgence seems about to begin. Schools reopening will be one of the vectors.  Please take time to listen to this August 27 podcast by Dr. Michael Osterholm, director of CIDRAP, the University of Minnesota’s Center for Infectious Disease Research and Policy. He entitles this episode “Crazy Days,” after the title of a song, […]


Living with Risk: The COVID-19 Iceberg

Author: , Post Date: August 31, 2020

Market Commentary - Cumberland Advisors - Living with Risk The COVID-19 Iceberg

Steve Sexauer and I spent about an hour discussing a superb paper he coauthored with Laurence Siegel. I recommend it to readers. It will give investors and decision makers some perspective on how to navigate through the COVID-19 shock and out the other side. Here’s the link. https://blogs.cfainstitute.org/investor/2020/08/20/living-with-risk-the-covid-19-iceberg/ Below is an excerpt that the authors […]


Why the US has a COVID Data Crisis

Author: David R. Kotok, Post Date: August 30, 2020

Cumberland Advisors Market Commentary - Why the US has a COVID Data Crisis

Congratulations to all. We’ve now endured and survived two political conventions. According to various pollsters, we’re mostly unchanged in our political views. We have witnessed two starkly contrasting and totally scripted messages. And we’ve had two hurricanes and massive wildfires, on top of COVID-19, to remind us that Mother Nature ignores politicians. We humans are […]


FOMC and Revisions to Its Longer-Run Policy Strategy

Author: Robert Eisenbeis, Ph.D., Post Date: August 28, 2020

Market Commentary - Cumberland Advisors - FOMC and Revisions to Its Longer-Run Policy Strategy

On the day of Chairman Powell’s opening speech for this year’s virtual annual Jackson Hole Economic Policy Symposium, hosted by the Kansas City Fed, the Federal Reserve released an update to its January 2012 “Statement on Longer-Run Goals and Monetary Policy Strategy.” This commentary describes the changes in the strategy and discusses what may be […]


Hurricanes

Author: David R. Kotok, Post Date: August 27, 2020

David R. Kotok

In the Indian Ocean they are called cyclones, in the Pacific Ocean, typhoons. The latter term comes from the Chinese tai fung, which translates as “great wind.” The Kʼicheʼ Mayans called their god of wind, storm, and fire Hurakan. European colonists adopted the word, and it became hurricane. (Source: A Furious Sky: The Five-Hundred-Year History of America’s […]


Insider Trading—What Does It Tell Us?*

Author: Leo Chen, Ph.D., Post Date: August 26, 2020

Market Commentary - Cumberland Advisors - Insider Trading (Leo Chen)

Insider trading often refers to acting on material nonpublic information. However, when company employees buy and sell their own stocks, it is also called insider trading, which is permitted by the SEC. We will only discuss the second type of insider trading today. As many investors have wondered, is it a fair game for outsiders […]


9/11 Tribute in Light 2020


 


 

Links to other websites or electronic media controlled or offered by Third-Parties (non-affiliates of Cumberland Advisors) are provided only as a reference and courtesy to our users. Cumberland Advisors has no control over such websites, does not recommend or endorse any opinions, ideas, products, information, or content of such sites, and makes no warranties as to the accuracy, completeness, reliability or suitability of their content. Cumberland Advisors hereby disclaims liability for any information, materials, products or services posted or offered at any of the Third-Party websites. The Third-Party may have a privacy and/or security policy different from that of Cumberland Advisors. Therefore, please refer to the specific privacy and security policies of the Third-Party when accessing their websites.

Sign up for our FREE Cumberland Market Commentaries

Cumberland Advisors Market Commentaries offer insights and analysis on upcoming, important economic issues that potentially impact global financial markets. Our team shares their thinking on global economic developments, market news and other factors that often influence investment opportunities and strategies.

Posted on: 09/12/2020 arrow Watch Video arrow
Cumberland-Advisors-Market-Update-20200904

Cumberland Advisors Week in Review (Aug 31, 2020 – Sept 04, 2020)

The Cumberland Advisors Week in Review is a recap of news, commentary, and opinion from our team.

Week In Review

These are not revised assessments, and circumstances may have changed in the market from the time of original publication. We also include older commentaries that our editors have determined may be of interest to our audience. Your feedback is always welcome.

CUMBERLAND ADVISORS’ WEEKLY RECAP

As part of Cumberland Advisors’ continuous effort to maintain strong customer relationships, we offer this week’s short video discussing current market conditions and how we are positioning portfolios.

Dear Clients & Friends,

Thank you for joining Cumberland Advisors for this end-of-week update on market conditions, bonds & equities with Matt McAleer and John Mousseau, CFA.

This week:

Matt McAleer on ETFs & Equities

-Good dose of volatility this week
-Pullback on Thursday/Friday in S&P 500 & NASDAQ
-In prior video we mention that the “air” had gotten a little thin
-We noticed speculative put/call ratios being blown out on the call side
-Wednesday, we acted on a sell signal in our volatility strategies (these are short term trading strategies)
-It worked out well (doesn’t always, did this time)
-Pullbacks are not unexpected
-We have cash at various levels depending on the strategies
-We want to buy strong trends on pullbacks, so we look for opportunities relating to our “want to buy” equity & ETF list
-We want to see a shift of risk-reward in our favor – Matt explains
-Japan has traded well after a 25 year nap
-China? Politics aside we look at them as an index of companies and their risk-reward opportunities
Impressive employment report
-Reminder: We don’t trade the economy, we trade securities.
-One doesn’t fall in line with the other but we want to analyze what each are doing
-Have a great Labor Day weekend!

 

John Mousseau’s Update on the Fixed Income Market

-10 & 30yr bonds up 6 & 7 basis pts today alone reflecting good numbers today
-Better than expected unemployment numbers
-Lots of work left to be done
-Muni yields up a little this week
-Barron’s article this week outlined some muni challenges ahead
-We expect to see a stimulus bill from congress at some point

-A vaccine will change the perception of growth rates going forward
-Vaccine may be as early as November
-We’re looking next week at CPI, PPI, and initial jobless claims, hoping for positive trends

Please reach out with any questions/comments you may have about this update; we appreciate your calls, comments, and emails. Watch in the player above or at this link: https://youtu.be/6YIrnu4BWdc

Stay safe, healthy, and have a great Labor Day weekend.

-Matt McAleer & Cumberland Advisors

Matt enjoys your feedback. You can reach him at:
-Link to Matt’s Email: Matthew.McAleer@Cumber.com
-Link to Matt’s Twitter: https://twitter.com/MattMcAleer4
-Link to Matt’s LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/matthew-c-mcaleer/
-Call Matt: (800) 257-7013

Other questions or comments? Email us at info@cumber.com or give us a call at (800) 257-7013.

Contact Matt or any one of our advisors by following this link: https://www.cumber.com/our-people/


IN THE NEWS

Cumberland Advisors In The News

WaPo – In a bleak economy, these companies are flourishing

Quoted: David R. Kotok | Posted on: 08/15/2020 read more

Camp Kotok: Maine Woods, Economists & Wine

Quoted: David R. Kotok | Posted on: 08/08/2020 read more


Cumberland Advisors Market Commentary

Cumberland Advisors Market Commentary offers insights and analysis on upcoming, important economic issues that potentially impact global financial markets. Our team shares their thinking on global economic developments, market news and other factors that often influence investment opportunities and strategies. Our readers appreciate its timeliness, depth of analysis, and quality of research.

To read current and past commentaries, visit https://www.cumber.com/category/market-commentary/


Crown Fires

Author: David R. Kotok, Post Date: September 3, 2020

Cumberland Advisors Market Commentary - Crown Fires

A COVID-19 resurgence seems about to begin. Schools reopening will be one of the vectors.  Please take time to listen to this August 27 podcast by Dr. Michael Osterholm, director of CIDRAP, the University of Minnesota’s Center for Infectious Disease Research and Policy. He entitles this episode “Crazy Days,” after the title of a song, […]


Living with Risk: The COVID-19 Iceberg

Author: , Post Date: August 31, 2020

Market Commentary - Cumberland Advisors - Living with Risk The COVID-19 Iceberg

Steve Sexauer and I spent about an hour discussing a superb paper he coauthored with Laurence Siegel. I recommend it to readers. It will give investors and decision makers some perspective on how to navigate through the COVID-19 shock and out the other side. Here’s the link. https://blogs.cfainstitute.org/investor/2020/08/20/living-with-risk-the-covid-19-iceberg/ Below is an excerpt that the authors […]


Why the US has a COVID Data Crisis

Author: David R. Kotok, Post Date: August 30, 2020

Cumberland Advisors Market Commentary - Why the US has a COVID Data Crisis

Congratulations to all. We’ve now endured and survived two political conventions. According to various pollsters, we’re mostly unchanged in our political views. We have witnessed two starkly contrasting and totally scripted messages. And we’ve had two hurricanes and massive wildfires, on top of COVID-19, to remind us that Mother Nature ignores politicians. We humans are […]


FOMC and Revisions to Its Longer-Run Policy Strategy

Author: Robert Eisenbeis, Ph.D., Post Date: August 28, 2020

Market Commentary - Cumberland Advisors - FOMC and Revisions to Its Longer-Run Policy Strategy

On the day of Chairman Powell’s opening speech for this year’s virtual annual Jackson Hole Economic Policy Symposium, hosted by the Kansas City Fed, the Federal Reserve released an update to its January 2012 “Statement on Longer-Run Goals and Monetary Policy Strategy.” This commentary describes the changes in the strategy and discusses what may be […]


Hurricanes

Author: David R. Kotok, Post Date: August 27, 2020

David R. Kotok

In the Indian Ocean they are called cyclones, in the Pacific Ocean, typhoons. The latter term comes from the Chinese tai fung, which translates as “great wind.” The Kʼicheʼ Mayans called their god of wind, storm, and fire Hurakan. European colonists adopted the word, and it became hurricane. (Source: A Furious Sky: The Five-Hundred-Year History of America’s […]


Insider Trading—What Does It Tell Us?*

Author: Leo Chen, Ph.D., Post Date: August 26, 2020

Market Commentary - Cumberland Advisors - Insider Trading (Leo Chen)

Insider trading often refers to acting on material nonpublic information. However, when company employees buy and sell their own stocks, it is also called insider trading, which is permitted by the SEC. We will only discuss the second type of insider trading today. As many investors have wondered, is it a fair game for outsiders […]


LIBOR vs. SOFR

Author: David R. Kotok, Post Date: August 24, 2020

Market Commentary - Cumberland Advisors - LIBOR vs. SOFR

My friend Christopher Whalen has written an excellent commentary on the ongoing debate about LIBOR versus SOFR (the secured overnight funding rate). Here’s the link to his publicly available essay: https://www.theinstitutionalriskanalyst.com/post/libor-is-dead-long-live-sofr-really. We recommend Chris’s analysis as a “five-star must-read” for any investor, banker, credit officer, analyst, or student of monetary economics and policy. LIBOR still […]


Beveridge Curves

Author: David R. Kotok, Post Date: August 23, 2020

Beveridge Curves Aug 2020

 

We’ve prepared a series of Beveridge curve graphics so that readers can see the dramatic changes in the composition and direction of various labor-force-related measures. We are using a visual Beveridge curve approach. The charts (30 of them) are available from our website. Below is the link. https://cumber.com/pdf/Beveridge-Curves-Covid-Aug-2020.pdf The 30 charts are graphic and dramatic […]


Japan’s Economy, Stocks, and Corporate Governance

Author: William Witherell, Ph.D., Post Date: August 20, 2020
Market Commentary - Cumberland Advisors - Japan’s Economy, Stocks, and Corporate Governance

The Japanese economy, the globe’s third largest (following those of the US and China), shrank by a record 7.8% in the second quarter. This decline was less than the 9.5% fall in the US economy and the 10.1% drop in the German economy. However, it was more than double neighboring South Korea’s 3.3% drop. Taiwan’s […]


Inflation?

Author: Robert Eisenbeis, Ph.D., Post Date: August 19, 2020
Cumberland Advisors' Robert "Bob" Eisenbeis, Ph.D.

During an August 14, 2020, lecture at the Center for Financial Stability, Charles Goodhart (former member of the Bank of England’s Monetary Policy Committee and professor at the London School of Economics) mused about the US’s current economic slowdown and the prospects for inflation that might result because of the extraordinary increase in the money […]


Rare Earth Rewind

Rare earth minerals have been getting a lot of attention lately. We looked at this area of high potential in the 2018 market commentary, “Marcus Island.”

Marcus Island & Rare Earth Minerals

Originally published April 2018 – An isolated Pacific island barely big enough to accommodate an airstrip has gained global importance. Some 787 miles east of South Iwo Jima, Marcus Island, or as the Japanese call it, Minami-Tori-shima (also spelled, “Minamitori”), meaning “Southern Bird Island,” is the southernmost island under Japanese governance and within the Japanese economic security zone. In its history Marcus Island has been under American sovereignty and governance and Japanese sovereignty and governance. So why is this fleck of land in the vast Pacific now so important?

Rare earth minerals. Full story: https://www.cumber.com/marcus-island/


 

Links to other websites or electronic media controlled or offered by Third-Parties (non-affiliates of Cumberland Advisors) are provided only as a reference and courtesy to our users. Cumberland Advisors has no control over such websites, does not recommend or endorse any opinions, ideas, products, information, or content of such sites, and makes no warranties as to the accuracy, completeness, reliability or suitability of their content. Cumberland Advisors hereby disclaims liability for any information, materials, products or services posted or offered at any of the Third-Party websites. The Third-Party may have a privacy and/or security policy different from that of Cumberland Advisors. Therefore, please refer to the specific privacy and security policies of the Third-Party when accessing their websites.

Sign up for our FREE Cumberland Market Commentaries

Cumberland Advisors Market Commentaries offer insights and analysis on upcoming, important economic issues that potentially impact global financial markets. Our team shares their thinking on global economic developments, market news and other factors that often influence investment opportunities and strategies.

Posted on: 09/05/2020 arrow Watch Video arrow
Cumberland-Advisors-Market-Update-20200828

Cumberland Advisors Week in Review (Aug 24, 2020 – Aug 28, 2020)

The Cumberland Advisors Week in Review is a recap of news, commentary, and opinion from our team.

Week In Review

These are not revised assessments, and circumstances may have changed in the market from the time of original publication. We also include older commentaries that our editors have determined may be of interest to our audience. Your feedback is always welcome.

CUMBERLAND ADVISORS’ WEEKLY RECAP

As part of Cumberland Advisors’ continuous effort to maintain strong customer relationships, we offer this week’s short video discussing current market conditions and how we are positioning portfolios.

Dear Clients & Friends,

Thank you for joining Cumberland Advisors for this end-of-week update on market conditions, bonds & equities with Matt McAleer and John Mousseau, CFA.

This week:

Matt McAleer on ETFs & Equities

-I provide a chart for your perusal
-It covers the performance of major market ETFs (data through Aug 25, 2020)
-Software has had a monster week, a monster month, with names like Microsoft, Salesforce, Adobe sticking out
-These companies and their software have really driven efficiencies in our businesses and personal lives
-Marc Andreessen is an American entrepreneur, investor, and software engineer.
– In 2011, Andreessen famously penned, “Why Software Is Eating The World” where he presented a vision of the future. He stipulated that software disrupts the future and predicted more and more businesses and industries adopting software and delivering online services over the next 10 years
-Here we are in year 9 and we can see all the disruption and innovation by software
-Hardware used to be the backbone of tech, but now it’s software that’s become the lifeblood in our business environment today.
-We’ve see liquidity in the markets find a home in the growth area
-We’re seeing the bid in value sticking, giving us some breath in the market
-Formulate 5 or 10 names on a list as “buy on pullback” opportunities

John Mousseau’s Update on the Fixed Income Market

-Rising Stock Market and rising yields
-Inflation expectation rising slightly
-10yr & 30yr T-Bonds saw a rise this week, a signal that the investing community is expecting better times ahead
-Durable goods and consumer spending higher
-Disappointing so many are still out of work
-Expectations for bond yields are going up
-Next week: looking to see continued trend in bond market and we’ll be watching the unemployment number

Please reach out with any questions/comments you may have about this update; we appreciate your calls, comments, and emails. Watch this week’s video in the player above or at this link: https://youtu.be/yZ4V2pMTIAk

Stay safe, healthy, and have a great weekend.

-Matt McAleer & Cumberland Advisors

Matt enjoys your feedback. You can reach him at:
-Link to Matt’s Email: Matthew.McAleer@Cumber.com
-Link to Matt’s Twitter: https://twitter.com/MattMcAleer4
-Link to Matt’s LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/matthew-c-mcaleer/
-Call Matt: (800) 257-7013

Other questions or comments? Email us at info@cumber.com or give us a call at (800) 257-7013.

Contact Matt or any one of our advisors by following this link: https://www.cumber.com/our-people/


IN THE NEWS

Cumberland Advisors In The News

WaPo – In a bleak economy, these companies are flourishing

Quoted: David R. Kotok | Posted on: 08/15/2020 read more

Camp Kotok: Maine Woods, Economists & Wine

Quoted: David R. Kotok | Posted on: 08/08/2020 read more

Highlands News Sun – COVID-19: Florida vs. Taiwan

Quoted: David R. Kotok | Posted on: 08/08/2020 read more

Barron’s – July Jobs Report: Better Than Expected, Better Than Feared

Quoted: William Witherell, Ph.D. | Posted on: 08/07/2020 read more


Cumberland Advisors Market Commentary

Cumberland Advisors Market Commentary offers insights and analysis on upcoming, important economic issues that potentially impact global financial markets. Our team shares their thinking on global economic developments, market news and other factors that often influence investment opportunities and strategies. Our readers appreciate its timeliness, depth of analysis, and quality of research.

To read current and past commentaries, visit https://www.cumber.com/category/market-commentary/


FOMC and Revisions to Its Longer-Run Policy Strategy

Author: Robert Eisenbeis, Ph.D., Post Date: August 28, 2020

Market Commentary - Cumberland Advisors - FOMC and Revisions to Its Longer-Run Policy Strategy On the day of Chairman Powell’s opening speech for this year’s virtual annual Jackson Hole Economic Policy Symposium, hosted by the Kansas City Fed, the Federal Reserve released an update to its January 2012 “Statement on Longer-Run Goals and Monetary Policy Strategy.” This commentary describes the changes in the strategy and discusses what may be […]


Hurricanes

Author: David R. Kotok, Post Date: August 27, 2020

David R. Kotok In the Indian Ocean they are called cyclones, in the Pacific Ocean, typhoons. The latter term comes from the Chinese tai fung, which translates as “great wind.” The Kʼicheʼ Mayans called their god of wind, storm, and fire Hurakan. European colonists adopted the word, and it became hurricane. (Source: A Furious Sky: The Five-Hundred-Year History of America’s […]


Insider Trading—What Does It Tell Us?*

Author: Leo Chen, Ph.D., Post Date: August 26, 2020

Market Commentary - Cumberland Advisors - Insider Trading (Leo Chen)Insider trading often refers to acting on material nonpublic information. However, when company employees buy and sell their own stocks, it is also called insider trading, which is permitted by the SEC. We will only discuss the second type of insider trading today. As many investors have wondered, is it a fair game for outsiders […]


LIBOR vs. SOFR

Author: David R. Kotok, Post Date: August 24, 2020

Market Commentary - Cumberland Advisors - LIBOR vs. SOFR My friend Christopher Whalen has written an excellent commentary on the ongoing debate about LIBOR versus SOFR (the secured overnight funding rate). Here’s the link to his publicly available essay: https://www.theinstitutionalriskanalyst.com/post/libor-is-dead-long-live-sofr-really. We recommend Chris’s analysis as a “five-star must-read” for any investor, banker, credit officer, analyst, or student of monetary economics and policy. LIBOR still […]


Beveridge Curves

Author: David R. Kotok, Post Date: August 23, 2020

Beveridge Curves Aug 2020

We’ve prepared a series of Beveridge curve graphics so that readers can see the dramatic changes in the composition and direction of various labor-force-related measures. We are using a visual Beveridge curve approach. The charts (30 of them) are available from our website. Below is the link. https://cumber.com/pdf/Beveridge-Curves-Covid-Aug-2020.pdf The 30 charts are graphic and dramatic […]


Japan’s Economy, Stocks, and Corporate Governance

Author: William Witherell, Ph.D., Post Date: August 20, 2020
Market Commentary - Cumberland Advisors - Japan’s Economy, Stocks, and Corporate Governance

The Japanese economy, the globe’s third largest (following those of the US and China), shrank by a record 7.8% in the second quarter. This decline was less than the 9.5% fall in the US economy and the 10.1% drop in the German economy. However, it was more than double neighboring South Korea’s 3.3% drop. Taiwan’s […]


Inflation?

Author: Robert Eisenbeis, Ph.D., Post Date: August 19, 2020
Cumberland Advisors' Robert "Bob" Eisenbeis, Ph.D.

During an August 14, 2020, lecture at the Center for Financial Stability, Charles Goodhart (former member of the Bank of England’s Monetary Policy Committee and professor at the London School of Economics) mused about the US’s current economic slowdown and the prospects for inflation that might result because of the extraordinary increase in the money […]


Diverse Political Views & Markets

Author: , Post Date: August 17, 2020
Market Commentary - Cumberland Advisors - Diverse Political Views & Markets

The US presidential race may be tighter than many think. Let’s survey diverse perspectives on the race, its issues, and its market implications, starting with Nate Silver’s August 16 analysis at FiveThirtyEight. 1. Nate Silver explains his thesis, that a Trump win cannot be counted out: “While the polls have been stable so far this […]


Sunday Report: Gainesville Party Responses

Author: , Post Date: August 16, 2020
Market Commentary - Cumberland Advisors - Sunday Report Gainesville Party Responses

On July 29, I posed questions to readers in a commentary titled “US Stock Market Sectors and Gainesville, Florida,” https://www.cumber.com/cumberland-advisors-market-commentary-us-stock-market-sectors-gainesville-florida/. News had just broken about University of Florida Health anesthesiology residents and one fellow who had contracted COVID-19 infections at an off-campus party (“18 in UF Health anesthesiology contract virus after party,” https://www.gainesville.com/news/20200727/18-in-uf-health-anesthesiology-contract-virus-after-party). I asked, “Should the school […]


Zika & COVID-19: We Need Action Now!

Author: David R. Kotok, Post Date: August 14, 2020
Market Commentary - Cumberland Advisors - Zika & COVID-19- We Need Action Now

Dear Readers: This is an appeal to Democrats, Republicans, and Independents, House Members and Senators, and including those on the far right and on the far left of American politics. The nation needs you to set aside the partisan politics. Students, their teachers, businesses, investors, the retired, the unemployed, the charities, state and local governments, […]


Interest Rates and Yield Curve Control, Part 2

Author: , Post Date: August 13, 2020
Market Commentary - Cumberland Advisors - Interest Rates and Yield Curve Control, Part 2
This is part 2 in a series on interest rates and yield curve controls. Here’s the link to part 1: https://www.cumber.com/cumberland-advisors-market-commentary-interest-rates-and-yield-curve-control-part-1/ First, we want to thank BCA Research and our friend Caroline Miller, Chief Strategist at BCA, for permission to share their charts. At Cumberland, we use BCA Research. My colleague John Mousseau and I […]

A Quick Look at Job Creation

Author: Robert Eisenbeis, Ph.D., Post Date: August 11, 2020
Market Commentary - Cumberland Advisors - A Quick Look at Job Creation (Eisenbeis)

Each month, the BLS produces a wealth of data from both its household survey and its establishment survey. The latter, in particular, gives us a view of where jobs are actually being created during this terrible pandemic. Normally, the data widely cited from these surveys are seasonally adjusted, but for our purposes we will look […]


Managing Hurricane Risk in a Bond Portfolio

Author: John R. Mousseau, CFA & Patricia Healy, CFA, Post Date: August 10, 2020
Market Commentary - Cumberland Advisors - Managing Hurricane Risk in a Bond Portfolio
The Northeast continues to clean up from Hurricane Isaias, which swept up the Atlantic coast to New York and parts of New England on Thursday. Below is a slide from a presentation by our good friend Tom Doe, who heads up Municipal Market Advisors (http://www.mma-research.com). Tom’s firm does in-depth quantitative and qualitative research on the […]

Sarasota Chamber Small Business Awards

Greater Sarasota Chamber Frank G. Berlin, Sr. Small Business Awards

Cumberland Advisors was the 2019 Professional Services Business of the Year winner, and we’re happy to share and congratulate this year’s 2020 Frank G. Berlin Sr. Small Business Award winners from the Greater Sarasota Chamber.

Story at Sarasota Herald Tribune: https://www.heraldtribune.com/story/business/2020/08/28/small-businesses-feted-sarasota-chamber-commerce/5647676002/


Links to other websites or electronic media controlled or offered by Third-Parties (non-affiliates of Cumberland Advisors) are provided only as a reference and courtesy to our users. Cumberland Advisors has no control over such websites, does not recommend or endorse any opinions, ideas, products, information, or content of such sites, and makes no warranties as to the accuracy, completeness, reliability or suitability of their content. Cumberland Advisors hereby disclaims liability for any information, materials, products or services posted or offered at any of the Third-Party websites. The Third-Party may have a privacy and/or security policy different from that of Cumberland Advisors. Therefore, please refer to the specific privacy and security policies of the Third-Party when accessing their websites.

Sign up for our FREE Cumberland Market Commentaries

Cumberland Advisors Market Commentaries offer insights and analysis on upcoming, important economic issues that potentially impact global financial markets. Our team shares their thinking on global economic developments, market news and other factors that often influence investment opportunities and strategies.

Posted on: 08/29/2020 arrow Watch Video arrow
Cumberland-Advisors-Market-Update-2020-08-21

Cumberland Advisors Week in Review (Aug 17, 2020 – Aug 21, 2020)

The Cumberland Advisors Week in Review is a recap of news, commentary, and opinion from our team.

Week In Review

These are not revised assessments, and circumstances may have changed in the market from the time of original publication. We also include older commentaries that our editors have determined may be of interest to our audience. Your feedback is always welcome.

CUMBERLAND ADVISORS’ WEEKLY RECAP

As part of Cumberland Advisors’ continuous effort to maintain strong customer relationships, we offer this week’s short video discussing current market conditions and how we are positioning portfolios.

Dear Clients & Friends,

Thank you for joining Cumberland Advisors for this end-of-week update on market conditions, bonds & equities with Matt McAleer and John Mousseau, CFA.

This week:

Matt McAleer on ETFs & Equities

-I have a chart to share with you
-NASDAQ, QQQ, Qs!
-Weeks of backing and filling before this move higher
-Don’t get distracted and off-course. What really determines price in equities is supply and demand
-Demand for high-quality, high-growth, large-cap names is very solid right now
-The amount of liquidity in the environment right now has been looking for a home
-Sometimes that liquidity finds a home in an area that can pay you two, two 1/2% in dividend yield vs. a ten year at 60-65 basis points. This makes things very attractive on the equity side.
-One thing we know: there will be volatility, ups, downs, rips higher & dips lower
-If value can help out growth, that’s very solid breath in the market
John Mousseau’s Update on the Fixed Income Market

-The bond market in the doldrums this summer week
-We discuss jobless claims
-Good news? Overall level of virus infections dropping
-Existing home sales up 22% based upon
(1) Low mortgage rates
(2) Movement out of cities
(3) Low supply
-Next week we’ll look at durable goods and employment claims again
-How will taxes/municipals be positioned after the elections?
David Kotok shared a few thoughts on China in a separate video. Click this link to watch him: https://youtu.be/pv0WpsHWSVY

Please reach out with any questions/comments you may have about this update; we appreciate your calls, comments, and emails. Watch this week’s video in the player above or at this link: https://youtu.be/NSQ4xtkd4RI

Stay safe, healthy, and have a great weekend.

-Matt McAleer & Cumberland Advisors

Matt enjoys your feedback. You can reach him at:
-Link to Matt’s Email: Matthew.McAleer@Cumber.com
-Link to Matt’s Twitter: https://twitter.com/MattMcAleer4
-Link to Matt’s LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/matthew-c-mcaleer/
-Call Matt: (800) 257-7013

Other questions or comments? Email us at info@cumber.com or give us a call at (800) 257-7013.

Contact Matt or any one of our advisors by following this link: https://www.cumber.com/our-people/


IN THE NEWS

Cumberland Advisors In The News

Inflation TIPS: Living On The Hedge

Quoted: John R. Mousseau, CFA | Posted on: 08/15/2020 read more

WaPo – In a bleak economy, these companies are flourishing

Quoted: David R. Kotok | Posted on: 08/15/2020 read more

Camp Kotok: Maine Woods, Economists & Wine

Quoted: David R. Kotok | Posted on: 08/08/2020 read more

Highlands News Sun – COVID-19: Florida vs. Taiwan

Quoted: David R. Kotok | Posted on: 08/08/2020 read more

Barron’s – July Jobs Report: Better Than Expected, Better Than Feared

Quoted: William Witherell, Ph.D. | Posted on: 08/07/2020 read more

The U.S. election is getting ugly – and investors are getting nervous

Quoted: David R. Kotok | Posted on: 07/31/2020 read more

TREASURIES-Yields fall ahead of TIPS auction

Quoted: John R. Mousseau, CFA | Posted on: 07/23/2020 read more

BondBuyer – Confidence high among muni investors

Quoted: John R. Mousseau, CFA | Posted on: 07/16/2020 read more


Cumberland Advisors Market Commentary

Cumberland Advisors Market Commentary offers insights and analysis on upcoming, important economic issues that potentially impact global financial markets. Our team shares their thinking on global economic developments, market news and other factors that often influence investment opportunities and strategies. Our readers appreciate its timeliness, depth of analysis, and quality of research.

To read current and past commentaries, visit https://www.cumber.com/category/market-commentary/


Japan’s Economy, Stocks, and Corporate Governance

Author: William Witherell, Ph.D., Post Date: August 20, 2020
Market Commentary - Cumberland Advisors - Japan’s Economy, Stocks, and Corporate Governance The Japanese economy, the globe’s third largest (following those of the US and China), shrank by a record 7.8% in the second quarter. This decline was less than the 9.5% fall in the US economy and the 10.1% drop in the German economy. However, it was more than double neighboring South Korea’s 3.3% drop. Taiwan’s […]


Inflation?

Author: Robert Eisenbeis, Ph.D., Post Date: August 19, 2020
Cumberland Advisors' Robert "Bob" Eisenbeis, Ph.D. During an August 14, 2020, lecture at the Center for Financial Stability, Charles Goodhart (former member of the Bank of England’s Monetary Policy Committee and professor at the London School of Economics) mused about the US’s current economic slowdown and the prospects for inflation that might result because of the extraordinary increase in the money […]


Diverse Political Views & Markets

Author: , Post Date: August 17, 2020
Market Commentary - Cumberland Advisors - Diverse Political Views & Markets The US presidential race may be tighter than many think. Let’s survey diverse perspectives on the race, its issues, and its market implications, starting with Nate Silver’s August 16 analysis at FiveThirtyEight. 1. Nate Silver explains his thesis, that a Trump win cannot be counted out: “While the polls have been stable so far this […]


Sunday Report: Gainesville Party Responses

Author: , Post Date: August 16, 2020
Market Commentary - Cumberland Advisors - Sunday Report Gainesville Party Responses On July 29, I posed questions to readers in a commentary titled “US Stock Market Sectors and Gainesville, Florida,” https://www.cumber.com/cumberland-advisors-market-commentary-us-stock-market-sectors-gainesville-florida/. News had just broken about University of Florida Health anesthesiology residents and one fellow who had contracted COVID-19 infections at an off-campus party (“18 in UF Health anesthesiology contract virus after party,” https://www.gainesville.com/news/20200727/18-in-uf-health-anesthesiology-contract-virus-after-party). I asked, “Should the school […]


Zika & COVID-19: We Need Action Now!

Author: David R. Kotok, Post Date: August 14, 2020
Market Commentary - Cumberland Advisors - Zika & COVID-19- We Need Action Now Dear Readers: This is an appeal to Democrats, Republicans, and Independents, House Members and Senators, and including those on the far right and on the far left of American politics. The nation needs you to set aside the partisan politics. Students, their teachers, businesses, investors, the retired, the unemployed, the charities, state and local governments, […]


Interest Rates and Yield Curve Control, Part 2

Author: , Post Date: August 13, 2020
Market Commentary - Cumberland Advisors - Interest Rates and Yield Curve Control, Part 2 This is part 2 in a series on interest rates and yield curve controls. Here’s the link to part 1: https://www.cumber.com/cumberland-advisors-market-commentary-interest-rates-and-yield-curve-control-part-1/ First, we want to thank BCA Research and our friend Caroline Miller, Chief Strategist at BCA, for permission to share their charts. At Cumberland, we use BCA Research. My colleague John Mousseau and I […]


A Quick Look at Job Creation

Author: Robert Eisenbeis, Ph.D., Post Date: August 11, 2020
Market Commentary - Cumberland Advisors - A Quick Look at Job Creation (Eisenbeis) Each month, the BLS produces a wealth of data from both its household survey and its establishment survey. The latter, in particular, gives us a view of where jobs are actually being created during this terrible pandemic. Normally, the data widely cited from these surveys are seasonally adjusted, but for our purposes we will look […]


Managing Hurricane Risk in a Bond Portfolio

Author: John R. Mousseau, CFA & Patricia Healy, CFA, Post Date: August 10, 2020
Market Commentary - Cumberland Advisors - Managing Hurricane Risk in a Bond Portfolio The Northeast continues to clean up from Hurricane Isaias, which swept up the Atlantic coast to New York and parts of New England on Thursday. Below is a slide from a presentation by our good friend Tom Doe, who heads up Municipal Market Advisors (http://www.mma-research.com). Tom’s firm does in-depth quantitative and qualitative research on the […]


Interest Rates and Yield Curve Control, Part 1

Author: David R. Kotok, Post Date:
Market Commentary - Cumberland Advisors - Interest Rates and Yield Curve Control, Part 1 “The Trimmed Mean PCE inflation rate is an alternative measure of core inflation in the price index for personal consumption expenditures (PCE). It is calculated by staff at the Dallas Fed, using data from the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA).” Through June 2020, “The Trimmed Mean PCE inflation rate over the 12 months ending in […]


Paulding County, Georgia

Author: David R. Kotok, Post Date: August 9, 2020
Paulding County, Georgia (Kotok) “All politics is local,” Tip O’Neill famously observed. (In fact, this former Speaker of the House wrote a book by that title.) As the next chapter of COVID-19 and election-year politics take us closer to the November deadline, we believe that the school-opening issue is a new major influence. Scenario 1: Schools are opened with minimal […]


Credit Spreads

Author: David R. Kotok, Post Date: August 6, 2020

Cumberland Advisors - Credit Spreads We track many spreads at Cumberland and circulate a key summary of them every morning. For this public commentary I extracted the ones you see below (the last 7 items are the key ones to examine) because they help tell the story of how the Fed’s activities have decreased risk pricing in the financial markets. […]


Why Investors Are Looking at Taiwan

Author: William Witherell, Ph.D., Post Date: August 5, 2020

Market Commentary - Cumberland Advisors - Why Investors Are Looking at Taiwan Consider a place that has had only 476 Covid-19 cases and just 7 deaths. This sounds like a rural town in the US with a small population and good access to medical care. Actually, it is Taiwan, a small country in Asia with a very dense population of 23.6 million people, situated about 100 miles […]


David Kotok talks about the current green shoots of progress with China and Trade Talks


Links to other websites or electronic media controlled or offered by Third-Parties (non-affiliates of Cumberland Advisors) are provided only as a reference and courtesy to our users. Cumberland Advisors has no control over such websites, does not recommend or endorse any opinions, ideas, products, information, or content of such sites, and makes no warranties as to the accuracy, completeness, reliability or suitability of their content. Cumberland Advisors hereby disclaims liability for any information, materials, products or services posted or offered at any of the Third-Party websites. The Third-Party may have a privacy and/or security policy different from that of Cumberland Advisors. Therefore, please refer to the specific privacy and security policies of the Third-Party when accessing their websites.

Sign up for our FREE Cumberland Market Commentaries

Cumberland Advisors Market Commentaries offer insights and analysis on upcoming, important economic issues that potentially impact global financial markets. Our team shares their thinking on global economic developments, market news and other factors that often influence investment opportunities and strategies.

Posted on: 08/22/2020 arrow Watch Video arrow
Cumberland-Advisors-David-Kotok-Market-Notes-China

Kotok – 8 Minutes on China-US & Markets

Cumberland Advisors’ David R. Kotok notes there is some positive movement toward normalization on the diplomacy and trade front between the United States and China. He touches on supply chains, COVID-19, how our political systems differ, and how our generations of millennials are positioned for the future.

Posted on: 08/20/2020 arrow Watch Video arrow
Cumberland-Advisors-Market-Update-20200814

Cumberland Advisors Week in Review (Aug 10, 2020 – Aug 14, 2020)

The Cumberland Advisors Week in Review is a recap of news, commentary, and opinion from our team.

Week In Review

These are not revised assessments, and circumstances may have changed in the market from the time of original publication. We also include older commentaries that our editors have determined may be of interest to our audience. Your feedback is always welcome.

CUMBERLAND ADVISORS’ WEEKLY RECAP

As part of Cumberland Advisors’ continuous effort to maintain strong customer relationships, we offer this week’s short video discussing current market conditions and how we are positioning portfolios.

Dear Clients & Friends,

Thank you for joining Cumberland Advisors for this end-of-week update on market conditions, bonds & equities with Matt McAleer and John Mousseau, CFA.

This week:

Matt McAleer on ETFs & Equities

-Continued bid into the heavies (industrials, transports, etc)
-A slow reallocation from some of the hotter sectors
-Quiet week trading
-Clients in our strategies have seen over the last number of weeks new purchases in industrials, basic materials, & banks
-Important to barbell growth allocation in case growth stalls

John Mousseau’s Update on the Fixed Income Market

-Yields higher this week
-Now in the world where long tax-free high grade bonds are less than Treasury bonds
-The world has gotten back to normal -The world is getting “less bad”
-Inflation higher – we’re off the mat – signs point to higher inflation down the road
-We’re taking some profits and playing defense, but not all in once
-Looking forward to hopefully good number next week

Please reach out with any questions/comments you may have about this update; we appreciate your calls, comments, and emails. Watch in the player above or at this link: https://youtu.be/NSQ4xtkd4RI

Stay safe, healthy, and have a great weekend.

-Matt McAleer & Cumberland Advisors

Matt enjoys your feedback. You can reach him at:
-Link to Matt’s Email: Matthew.McAleer@Cumber.com
-Link to Matt’s Twitter: https://twitter.com/MattMcAleer4
-Link to Matt’s LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/matthew-c-mcaleer/
-Call Matt: (800) 257-7013

Other questions or comments? Email us at info@cumber.com or give us a call at (800) 257-7013.

Contact Matt or any one of our advisors by following this link: https://www.cumber.com/our-people/


IN THE NEWS

Cumberland Advisors In The News

Inflation TIPS: Living On The Hedge

Quoted: John R. Mousseau, CFA | Posted on: 08/15/2020 read more

WaPo – In a bleak economy, these companies are flourishing

Quoted: David R. Kotok | Posted on: 08/15/2020 read more

Camp Kotok: Maine Woods, Economists & Wine

Quoted: David R. Kotok | Posted on: 08/08/2020 read more

Highlands News Sun – COVID-19: Florida vs. Taiwan

Quoted: David R. Kotok | Posted on: 08/08/2020 read more

Barron’s – July Jobs Report: Better Than Expected, Better Than Feared

Quoted: William Witherell, Ph.D. | Posted on: 08/07/2020 read more

The U.S. election is getting ugly – and investors are getting nervous

Quoted: David R. Kotok | Posted on: 07/31/2020 read more

TREASURIES-Yields fall ahead of TIPS auction

Quoted: John R. Mousseau, CFA | Posted on: 07/23/2020 read more

BondBuyer – Confidence high among muni investors

Quoted: John R. Mousseau, CFA | Posted on: 07/16/2020 read more


Cumberland Advisors Market Commentary

Cumberland Advisors Market Commentary offers insights and analysis on upcoming, important economic issues that potentially impact global financial markets. Our team shares their thinking on global economic developments, market news and other factors that often influence investment opportunities and strategies. Our readers appreciate its timeliness, depth of analysis, and quality of research.

To read current and past commentaries, visit https://www.cumber.com/category/market-commentary/


Zika & COVID-19: We Need Action Now!

Author: David R. Kotok, Post Date: August 14, 2020
Market Commentary - Cumberland Advisors - Zika & COVID-19- We Need Action Now Dear Readers: This is an appeal to Democrats, Republicans, and Independents, House Members and Senators, and including those on the far right and on the far left of American politics. The nation needs you to set aside the partisan politics. Students, their teachers, businesses, investors, the retired, the unemployed, the charities, state and local governments, […]


Interest Rates and Yield Curve Control, Part 2

Author: , Post Date: August 13, 2020
Market Commentary - Cumberland Advisors - Interest Rates and Yield Curve Control, Part 2 This is part 2 in a series on interest rates and yield curve controls. Here’s the link to part 1: https://www.cumber.com/cumberland-advisors-market-commentary-interest-rates-and-yield-curve-control-part-1/ First, we want to thank BCA Research and our friend Caroline Miller, Chief Strategist at BCA, for permission to share their charts. At Cumberland, we use BCA Research. My colleague John Mousseau and I […]


A Quick Look at Job Creation

Author: Robert Eisenbeis, Ph.D., Post Date: August 11, 2020
Market Commentary - Cumberland Advisors - A Quick Look at Job Creation (Eisenbeis) Each month, the BLS produces a wealth of data from both its household survey and its establishment survey. The latter, in particular, gives us a view of where jobs are actually being created during this terrible pandemic. Normally, the data widely cited from these surveys are seasonally adjusted, but for our purposes we will look […]


Managing Hurricane Risk in a Bond Portfolio

Author: John R. Mousseau, CFA & Patricia Healy, CFA, Post Date: August 10, 2020
Market Commentary - Cumberland Advisors - Managing Hurricane Risk in a Bond Portfolio The Northeast continues to clean up from Hurricane Isaias, which swept up the Atlantic coast to New York and parts of New England on Thursday. Below is a slide from a presentation by our good friend Tom Doe, who heads up Municipal Market Advisors (http://www.mma-research.com). Tom’s firm does in-depth quantitative and qualitative research on the […]


Interest Rates and Yield Curve Control, Part 1

Author: David R. Kotok, Post Date:
Market Commentary - Cumberland Advisors - Interest Rates and Yield Curve Control, Part 1 “The Trimmed Mean PCE inflation rate is an alternative measure of core inflation in the price index for personal consumption expenditures (PCE). It is calculated by staff at the Dallas Fed, using data from the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA).” Through June 2020, “The Trimmed Mean PCE inflation rate over the 12 months ending in […]


Paulding County, Georgia

Author: David R. Kotok, Post Date: August 9, 2020
Paulding County, Georgia (Kotok) “All politics is local,” Tip O’Neill famously observed. (In fact, this former Speaker of the House wrote a book by that title.) As the next chapter of COVID-19 and election-year politics take us closer to the November deadline, we believe that the school-opening issue is a new major influence. Scenario 1: Schools are opened with minimal […]


Credit Spreads

Author: David R. Kotok, Post Date: August 6, 2020

Cumberland Advisors - Credit Spreads We track many spreads at Cumberland and circulate a key summary of them every morning. For this public commentary I extracted the ones you see below (the last 7 items are the key ones to examine) because they help tell the story of how the Fed’s activities have decreased risk pricing in the financial markets. […]


Why Investors Are Looking at Taiwan

Author: William Witherell, Ph.D., Post Date: August 5, 2020

Market Commentary - Cumberland Advisors - Why Investors Are Looking at Taiwan Consider a place that has had only 476 Covid-19 cases and just 7 deaths. This sounds like a rural town in the US with a small population and good access to medical care. Actually, it is Taiwan, a small country in Asia with a very dense population of 23.6 million people, situated about 100 miles […]


Florida vs. Taiwan

Author: David R. Kotok, Post Date: August 4, 2020

Market Commentary - Cumberland Advisors - Florida vs. Taiwan “The first time it’s a novelty. The second time, people know what they’re in for and are less willing to take another hit. The virus is exposing socioeconomic fault lines: it’s harder to stay home with a head cold if you work casual shifts for minimum wage and can’t afford to miss a few days.” […]


Some Thoughts for a Sunday Morning

Author: David R. Kotok, Post Date: August 2, 2020

Some Thoughts for a Sunday Morning Some Thoughts for a Sunday Morning #1 – Two quotes from Tocqueville: “Liberty cannot be established without morality, nor morality without faith” (Democracy in America, http://libertytree.ca/quotes/Alexis.de.Tocqueville.Quote.8AF2). “The greatness of America lies not in being more enlightened than any other nation, but rather in her ability to repair her faults” (Democracy in America,  https://en.wikiquote.org/wiki/Alexis_de_Tocqueville). #2 – […]


Markets, Election, Axios Poll

Author: David R. Kotok, Post Date: July 31, 2020

Cumberland Advisors Market Commentary For the next 100 days or so, the growing focus on the US election may drive news flows and alter markets. Remember, though, there is a chasm between what polls are saying now and what markets are pricing as expectations for tomorrow. Most market agents are looking at 2021 and are now focused on a […]


US Stock Market Sectors & Gainesville, Florida

Author: David R. Kotok, Post Date: July 29, 2020

Market Commentary - Cumberland Advisors - US Stock Market Sectors & Gainesville Florida We were about to publish this commentary on the American stock market sectors when a news item about the healthcare sector crossed our screen. So we have decided to lead with it and then go to the stock market. Here is a fresh report about behavior and its consequences at a medical school in Gainesville, […]


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Judith Monroe from CDC Foundation & David Kotok explore Zika & other initiatives of CDC


Links to other websites or electronic media controlled or offered by Third-Parties (non-affiliates of Cumberland Advisors) are provided only as a reference and courtesy to our users. Cumberland Advisors has no control over such websites, does not recommend or endorse any opinions, ideas, products, information, or content of such sites, and makes no warranties as to the accuracy, completeness, reliability or suitability of their content. Cumberland Advisors hereby disclaims liability for any information, materials, products or services posted or offered at any of the Third-Party websites. The Third-Party may have a privacy and/or security policy different from that of Cumberland Advisors. Therefore, please refer to the specific privacy and security policies of the Third-Party when accessing their websites.

Sign up for our FREE Cumberland Market Commentaries

Cumberland Advisors Market Commentaries offer insights and analysis on upcoming, important economic issues that potentially impact global financial markets. Our team shares their thinking on global economic developments, market news and other factors that often influence investment opportunities and strategies.

Posted on: 08/15/2020 arrow Watch Video arrow
Cumberland-Advisors-Market-Update-20200807

Cumberland Advisors Week in Review (Aug 03, 2020 – Aug 07, 2020)

The Cumberland Advisors Week in Review is a recap of news, commentary, and opinion from our team.

Week In Review

These are not revised assessments, and circumstances may have changed in the market from the time of original publication. We also include older commentaries that our editors have determined may be of interest to our audience. Your feedback is always welcome.

CUMBERLAND ADVISORS’ WEEKLY RECAP

As part of Cumberland Advisors’ continuous effort to maintain strong customer relationships, we offer this week’s short video discussing current market conditions and how we are positioning portfolios.

Dear Clients & Friends,

Thank you for joining Cumberland Advisors for this end-of-week update on market conditions, bonds & equities with Matt McAleer and John Mousseau, CFA.

This week:

Matt McAleer on ETFs & Equities

-The Market action is broadening
-Seeing a bid to previously beaten down value names
-Massive cash on the side moving in
-Are these catch up trades?
-Are we seeing a rotation out of growth names?
-For weeks we’ve seen a steady bid to value
-As long as money is looking for new homes, the market should retain a bid
-There will still be pullbacks
-We’re seeing big upgrades in earnings estimates
-We’re seeing a little frothy sentiment coming from the institutional crowd
-Massive Fed Liquidity has to find a home somewhere and we’re watching it

 

John Mousseau’s Update on the Fixed Income Market

-T-Yields basically where they were last Friday
-Jobs numbers today were good, payrolls higher, unemployment lower
-The pace of jobs is slowing, something to keep an eye on
-Next week, CPI & PPI will be watched
-Fed less concerned about inflation, willing to tolerate it to offset periods of low inflation
-As we move forward, we expect to see hope for a vaccine to help move markets
-We expect robust muni demand
-The possibility of a Biden victory means high muni demand,
-Munis have higher value if tax rates go up

Please reach out with any questions/comments you may have about this update; we appreciate your calls, comments, and emails. Watch in the player above or at this link: https://youtu.be/Tmpupfrwnfg

 

Stay safe, healthy, and have a great weekend.

-Matt McAleer & Cumberland Advisors

Matt enjoys your feedback. You can reach him at:
-Link to Matt’s Email: Matthew.McAleer@Cumber.com
-Link to Matt’s Twitter: https://twitter.com/MattMcAleer4
-Link to Matt’s LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/matthew-c-mcaleer/
-Call Matt: (800) 257-7013

Other questions or comments? Email us at info@cumber.com or give us a call at (800) 257-7013.

Contact Matt or any one of our advisors by following this link: https://www.cumber.com/our-people/


IN THE NEWS

Cumberland Advisors In The News

Camp Kotok: Maine Woods, Economists & Wine

Quoted: David R. Kotok | Posted on: 08/08/2020 read more

Highlands News Sun – COVID-19: Florida vs. Taiwan

Quoted: David R. Kotok | Posted on: 08/08/2020 read more

Barron’s – July Jobs Report: Better Than Expected, Better Than Feared

Quoted: William Witherell, Ph.D. | Posted on: 08/07/2020 read more

The U.S. election is getting ugly – and investors are getting nervous

Quoted: David R. Kotok | Posted on: 07/31/2020 read more

TREASURIES-Yields fall ahead of TIPS auction

Quoted: John R. Mousseau, CFA | Posted on: 07/23/2020 read more

BondBuyer – Confidence high among muni investors

 

Quoted: John R. Mousseau, CFA | Posted on: 07/16/2020 read more


Cumberland Advisors Market Commentary

Cumberland Advisors Market Commentary offers insights and analysis on upcoming, important economic issues that potentially impact global financial markets. Our team shares their thinking on global economic developments, market news and other factors that often influence investment opportunities and strategies. Our readers appreciate its timeliness, depth of analysis, and quality of research.

To read current and past commentaries, visit https://www.cumber.com/category/market-commentary/


Credit Spreads

Author: David R. Kotok, Post Date: August 6, 2020

Cumberland Advisors - Credit Spreads We track many spreads at Cumberland and circulate a key summary of them every morning. For this public commentary I extracted the ones you see below (the last 7 items are the key ones to examine) because they help tell the story of how the Fed’s activities have decreased risk pricing in the financial markets. […]


Why Investors Are Looking at Taiwan

Author: William Witherell, Ph.D., Post Date: August 5, 2020

Market Commentary - Cumberland Advisors - Why Investors Are Looking at Taiwan Consider a place that has had only 476 Covid-19 cases and just 7 deaths. This sounds like a rural town in the US with a small population and good access to medical care. Actually, it is Taiwan, a small country in Asia with a very dense population of 23.6 million people, situated about 100 miles […]


Florida vs. Taiwan

Author: David R. Kotok, Post Date: August 4, 2020

Market Commentary - Cumberland Advisors - Florida vs. Taiwan “The first time it’s a novelty. The second time, people know what they’re in for and are less willing to take another hit. The virus is exposing socioeconomic fault lines: it’s harder to stay home with a head cold if you work casual shifts for minimum wage and can’t afford to miss a few days.” […]


Some Thoughts for a Sunday Morning

Author: David R. Kotok, Post Date: August 2, 2020

Some Thoughts for a Sunday Morning Some Thoughts for a Sunday Morning #1 – Two quotes from Tocqueville: “Liberty cannot be established without morality, nor morality without faith” (Democracy in America, http://libertytree.ca/quotes/Alexis.de.Tocqueville.Quote.8AF2). “The greatness of America lies not in being more enlightened than any other nation, but rather in her ability to repair her faults” (Democracy in America,  https://en.wikiquote.org/wiki/Alexis_de_Tocqueville). #2 – […]


Markets, Election, Axios Poll

Author: David R. Kotok, Post Date: July 31, 2020

Cumberland Advisors Market Commentary For the next 100 days or so, the growing focus on the US election may drive news flows and alter markets. Remember, though, there is a chasm between what polls are saying now and what markets are pricing as expectations for tomorrow. Most market agents are looking at 2021 and are now focused on a […]


US Stock Market Sectors & Gainesville, Florida

Author: David R. Kotok, Post Date: July 29, 2020

Market Commentary - Cumberland Advisors - US Stock Market Sectors & Gainesville Florida We were about to publish this commentary on the American stock market sectors when a news item about the healthcare sector crossed our screen. So we have decided to lead with it and then go to the stock market. Here is a fresh report about behavior and its consequences at a medical school in Gainesville, […]


A Modest Proposal

Author: Robert Eisenbeis, Ph.D., Post Date: July 28, 2020

Market Commentary - Cumberland Advisors - A Modest Proposal “In practice, the Fed has never adopted operating procedures designed to control reserves in order to use the money multiplier relationship to control deposits.” (Goodfriend and Hargraves, “A Historical Assessment of the Rationales and Functions of Reserve Requirements,” Source: https://www.richmondfed.org) In response to the pandemic crisis, the Federal Reserve has cut the federal funds rate […]


Update on Fed Repo and Reverse Repo Facility

Author: Robert Eisenbeis, Ph.D., Post Date: July 27, 2020

Market Commentary - Cumberland Advisors - Update on Fed Repo and Reverse Repo Facility Details on offerings and takedowns are interesting and provide clues as to the state of liquidity, even given the large volume of Treasuries coming to market.


Rebekah Jones

Author: David R. Kotok, Post Date: July 26, 2020

Market Commentary - Cumberland Advisors - A Duel Over Data (Or, Three Cheers for Rebekah Jones) A Duel Over Data (Or, Three Cheers for Rebekah Jones) On April 20, 2020, Dr. Deborah Birx, response coordinator for the White House Coronavirus Task Force, praised the Florida Department of Health website for its useful detail: “The Florida Department of Health’s website is extraordinary, and this is what every department of health should have…. […]


In its 30th year, the Frank G. Berlin Sr. Foundation Small Business Awards recognizes member businesses with locally owned and operated businesses. Cumberland Advisors was recognized last year as the “Professional Services Business of the year” for 2019 and we wish the 2020 finalists continued success and luck for this year’s selection. The Sarasota Chamber will conduct the event virtually on August 28th from 12 p.m. to 1 p.m. Details here: https://www.sarasotachamber.com/2020-virtual-sba.html

The Greater Sarasota Chamber of Commerce - SBA 2019 - Winner- Professional Services Category

July 3, 2019 – Sarasota, Florida – On Friday, June 14, 2019, business and community leaders gathered for the 29th Frank G. Berlin, Sr. Small Business Awards, presented by the Herald Tribune Media Group. Three finalists were selected across five categories: Hospitality and Tourism, Non-Profit, Products and Services, Retail and Professional Services. We are honored to share that Cumberland Advisors was selected as the winner within the Professional Services category. ”

Press Release: https://www.tampabaynewswire.com/2019/07/03/cumberland-advisors-receives-sarasota-chamber-of-commerce-small-business-award-within-the-professional-services-category-78721


Links to other websites or electronic media controlled or offered by Third-Parties (non-affiliates of Cumberland Advisors) are provided only as a reference and courtesy to our users. Cumberland Advisors has no control over such websites, does not recommend or endorse any opinions, ideas, products, information, or content of such sites, and makes no warranties as to the accuracy, completeness, reliability or suitability of their content. Cumberland Advisors hereby disclaims liability for any information, materials, products or services posted or offered at any of the Third-Party websites. The Third-Party may have a privacy and/or security policy different from that of Cumberland Advisors. Therefore, please refer to the specific privacy and security policies of the Third-Party when accessing their websites.

Sign up for our FREE Cumberland Market Commentaries

Cumberland Advisors Market Commentaries offer insights and analysis on upcoming, important economic issues that potentially impact global financial markets. Our team shares their thinking on global economic developments, market news and other factors that often influence investment opportunities and strategies.

Posted on: 08/08/2020 arrow Watch Video arrow
Cumberland-Advisors-Market-Update-20200731

Cumberland Advisors Week in Review (Jul 27, 2020 – Jul 31, 2020)

The Cumberland Advisors Week in Review is a recap of news, commentary, and opinion from our team.

Week In Review

These are not revised assessments, and circumstances may have changed in the market from the time of original publication. We also include older commentaries that our editors have determined may be of interest to our audience. Your feedback is always welcome.

CUMBERLAND ADVISORS’ WEEKLY RECAP

As part of Cumberland Advisors’ continuous effort to maintain strong customer relationships, we offer this week’s short video discussing current market conditions and how we are positioning portfolios.

Dear Clients & Friends,

Thank you for joining Cumberland Advisors for this end-of-week update on market conditions, bonds & equities with Matt McAleer and John Mousseau, CFA.

This week:

Matt McAleer on ETFs & Equities

– Matt has some charts this week
– He first takes us through Domestic Sectors
– Next, he offers insight for the International Markets

John Mousseau’s Update on the Fixed Income Market
– John give us various rates for a big picture view of muniland
– He also discusses government relief for industries and local/state governments

Please reach out with any questions/comments you may have about this update; we appreciate your calls, comments, and emails. Watch in the player above or at this link: https://youtu.be/L0ahbGPDjZE

 

Stay safe, healthy, and have a great weekend.

-Matt McAleer & Cumberland Advisors

Matt enjoys your feedback. You can reach him at:
-Link to Matt’s Email: Matthew.McAleer@Cumber.com
-Link to Matt’s Twitter: https://twitter.com/MattMcAleer4
-Link to Matt’s LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/matthew-c-mcaleer/
-Call Matt: (800) 257-7013

Other questions or comments? Email us at info@cumber.com or give us a call at (800) 257-7013.

Contact Matt or any one of our advisors by following this link: https://www.cumber.com/our-people/


IN THE NEWS

Cumberland Advisors In The News


Cumberland Advisors Market Commentary

Cumberland Advisors Market Commentary offers insights and analysis on upcoming, important economic issues that potentially impact global financial markets. Our team shares their thinking on global economic developments, market news and other factors that often influence investment opportunities and strategies. Our readers appreciate its timeliness, depth of analysis, and quality of research.

To read current and past commentaries, visit https://www.cumber.com/category/market-commentary/


Markets, Election, Axios Poll

Author: David R. Kotok, Post Date: July 31, 2020

Cumberland Advisors Market Commentary For the next 100 days or so, the growing focus on the US election may drive news flows and alter markets. Remember, though, there is a chasm between what polls are saying now and what markets are pricing as expectations for tomorrow. Most market agents are looking at 2021 and are now focused on a […]


US Stock Market Sectors & Gainesville, Florida

Author: David R. Kotok, Post Date: July 29, 2020

Market Commentary - Cumberland Advisors - US Stock Market Sectors & Gainesville Florida We were about to publish this commentary on the American stock market sectors when a news item about the healthcare sector crossed our screen. So we have decided to lead with it and then go to the stock market. Here is a fresh report about behavior and its consequences at a medical school in Gainesville, […]


A Modest Proposal

Author: Robert Eisenbeis, Ph.D., Post Date: July 28, 2020

Market Commentary - Cumberland Advisors - A Modest Proposal “In practice, the Fed has never adopted operating procedures designed to control reserves in order to use the money multiplier relationship to control deposits.” (Goodfriend and Hargraves, “A Historical Assessment of the Rationales and Functions of Reserve Requirements,” Source: https://www.richmondfed.org) In response to the pandemic crisis, the Federal Reserve has cut the federal funds rate […]


Update on Fed Repo and Reverse Repo Facility

Author: Robert Eisenbeis, Ph.D., Post Date: July 27, 2020

Market Commentary - Cumberland Advisors - Update on Fed Repo and Reverse Repo Facility Details on offerings and takedowns are interesting and provide clues as to the state of liquidity, even given the large volume of Treasuries coming to market.


Rebekah Jones

Author: David R. Kotok, Post Date: July 26, 2020

Market Commentary - Cumberland Advisors - A Duel Over Data (Or, Three Cheers for Rebekah Jones) A Duel Over Data (Or, Three Cheers for Rebekah Jones) On April 20, 2020, Dr. Deborah Birx, response coordinator for the White House Coronavirus Task Force, praised the Florida Department of Health website for its useful detail: “The Florida Department of Health’s website is extraordinary, and this is what every department of health should have…. […]


Inflation coming? Maybe, maybe not?

Author: David R. Kotok, Post Date: July 23, 2020

Market Commentary - Cumberland Advisors - Inflation coming Maybe, maybe not There are many prescriptions and forecast models for a coming inflation or the lack of it. They range widely. Some forecasts include deflation. Inflation adjusted bonds (like TIPS) are currently priced for very low inflation. Nominal bond markets are saying that little to no inflation is expected. That is why high grade bonds are pricing […]


The Fed & Nonprofits

Author: David R. Kotok, Post Date: July 21, 2020

Market Commentary - Cumberland Advisors - The Fed & Nonprofits The extraordinary and massive COVID-19 economic shock has triggered another first-time action by our nation’s central bank. The Fed now has expanded a facility directed at lending to nonprofits. Among those nonprofits targeted are “educational institutions, hospitals, and social service organizations.” Here’s the link to the July 17 press release announcing the modification of the […]


Chinese Economy: Global Locomotive but Significant Risks

Author: William Witherell, Ph.D., Post Date: July 20, 2020

Market Commentary - Cumberland Advisors - Chinese Economy Global Locomotive but Significant Risks China’s economy, the second largest in the world after that of the United States, is recovering from a sharp slowdown in the first quarter of the year. The first estimate of the annualized second-quarter GDP growth rate is +3.2% versus 2.4% expected, a strong reversal from -6.8% in the first quarter. The advance indicates that […]


The Room Where It Happened Responses

Author: David R. Kotok, Post Date: July 19, 2020

Market Commentary - Cumberland Advisors - The Room Where It Happened Last Sunday morning we offered readers “The Room Where It Happened” (https://www.cumber.com/cumberland-advisors-market-commentary-the-room-where-it-happened/). We thank many readers for their kind replies. Here are just a few. Harvey wrote: “All I can say is, patience is a virtue, along with not wanting to spend hundreds to see a play, no matter how well done, when we knew […]


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Cumberland Advisors Market Commentaries offer insights and analysis on upcoming, important economic issues that potentially impact global financial markets. Our team shares their thinking on global economic developments, market news and other factors that often influence investment opportunities and strategies.

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