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Cumberland Advisors Week in Review (June 29, 2020 – July 02, 2020)

The Cumberland Advisors Week in Review is a recap of news, commentary, and opinion from our team.

Week In Review

These are not revised assessments, and circumstances may have changed in the market from the time of original publication. We also include older commentaries that our editors have determined may be of interest to our audience. Your feedback is always welcome.

CUMBERLAND ADVISORS’ WEEKLY RECAP

As part of Cumberland Advisors’ continuous effort to maintain strong customer relationships, we offer this week’s short video discussing current market conditions and how we are positioning portfolios.

Dear Clients & Friends,

Thank you for joining Cumberland Advisors for this end-of-week update on market conditions, bonds & equities with Matt McAleer, and John Moussea, CFA.

This week:
Matt McAleer on ETFs & Equities
This week: Matt McAleer on ETFs & Equities -Good bid all week in Health Care and Tech sectors -Our addition of Basic Materials to U.S. portfolios -Taking advantage of global monetary easing -Stay flexible and remain diligent
 
John Mousseau’s Update on the Fixed Income Market
-Keeping great job numbers in perspective -Bond market quiet this week -Muni yields have returned to February levels -See yields gradually rising into the end of the year as outlook improves
Keep in mind markets are closed on July 3rd.
Please reach out with any questions/comments you may have about this update; we appreciate your calls, comments, and emails. Watch in the player above or at this link: https://youtu.be/ltYkUt6a4bM

 

-Matt McAleer

Matt enjoys your feedback. You can reach him at:
-Link to Matt’s Email: Matthew.McAleer@Cumber.com
-Link to Matt’s Twitter: https://twitter.com/MattMcAleer4
-Link to Matt’s LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/matthew-c-mcaleer/
-Call Matt: (800) 257-7013

Other questions or comments? Email us at info@cumber.com or give us a call at (800) 257-7013.

Contact Matt or any one of our advisors by following this link: https://www.cumber.com/our-people/


Cumberland Advisors Market Commentary

Cumberland Advisors Market Commentary offers insights and analysis on upcoming, important economic issues that potentially impact global financial markets. Our team shares their thinking on global economic developments, market news and other factors that often influence investment opportunities and strategies. Our readers appreciate its timeliness, depth of analysis, and quality of research.

To read current and past commentaries, visit https://www.cumber.com/category/market-commentary/


America’s Birthday

Author: David R. Kotok, Post Date: July 4, 2020
Happy Birthday America We celebrate America’s birthdate on July 4. For the great document declaring our independence to become a new kind of nation, we say “thank you” to Thomas Jefferson, author, and Benjamin Franklin, editorial consultant. During a seminar years ago at the National Constitution Center in Philadelphia, I was fortunate enough to participate in a lengthy […]

COVID-19, Opening Up Business and Facing Facts

Author: David R. Kotok, Post Date: July 2, 2020

Market Commentary - Cumberland Advisors - COVID-19, Opening Up Business & Facing Facts

In January 1944, General Eisenhower’s headquarters sent a top secret message to the US military’s weather planning service. It said something like, “We need your long-range weather forecast for June 1–10, 1944, for the coastal regions of Normandy.” The weather service […]

The Muni Selloff That Was

Author: John R. Mousseau, CFA, Post Date: July 1, 2020

As we come to the end of the second quarter of 2020, the pandemic is still with us, with cases are rising in the South and the West in a resurgence of the virus, amid further issues involving social […]

 More on Politics and Markets

Author: David R. Kotok, Post Date: June 30, 2020

In this 2020 political year, the issues, including COVID-19 and the Black Lives Matter protests, have political forecasts about as complex and difficult as anyone can imagine. An intensely divided country only adds to the complexity. Current polling notwithstanding, we still […]

 A Fish Story

Author: David R. Kotok, Post Date: June 29, 2020

Market Commentary - Cumberland Advisors - A Fish Story

“That is the biggest one I’ve ever seen,” said Ray Sockabasin. I agreed. We had finally gotten the large fish into the net and were holding him next to the canoe but keeping him in the water. “I wonder what it weighs?” Ray’s scale […]

South Korea vs. Brazil: Smart Policies and Practices Save Lives

Author: William Witherell, Ph.D., Post Date: June 26, 2020

Bill Witherell, Ph.D. Chief Global Economist & Portfolio Manager Email | Bio There are sharp differences in the way countries have responded to the global pandemic caused by the COVID-19 virus. A comparison of the recent experiences of South Korea, widely recognized as having the best organized COVID-19 defense, and Brazil, a strong contender for [Continued…]


Forrest Gump Responses

Author: David R. Kotok, Post Date: June 25, 2020

We’ve been compiling responses to our commentary on Forrest Gump’s advice. For those who missed it, here’s the link: https://www.cumber.com/cumberland-advisors-commentary-forrest-gumps-advice/. Now some quotes from readers. Bruce wrote: “Thanks for your Forrest Gump moment. Your most revealing sentence in all of this missive is ‘people are now required to take full responsibility for their own personal […]


2020-07-03 Bloomberg Radio Interview with David R. Kotok

David Kotok on Volatile Markets (Radio)


Links to other websites or electronic media controlled or offered by Third-Parties (non-affiliates of Cumberland Advisors) are provided only as a reference and courtesy to our users. Cumberland Advisors has no control over such websites, does not recommend or endorse any opinions, ideas, products, information, or content of such sites, and makes no warranties as to the accuracy, completeness, reliability or suitability of their content. Cumberland Advisors hereby disclaims liability for any information, materials, products or services posted or offered at any of the Third-Party websites. The Third-Party may have a privacy and/or security policy different from that of Cumberland Advisors. Therefore, please refer to the specific privacy and security policies of the Third-Party when accessing their websites.

Sign up for our FREE Cumberland Market Commentaries

Cumberland Advisors Market Commentaries offer insights and analysis on upcoming, important economic issues that potentially impact global financial markets. Our team shares their thinking on global economic developments, market news and other factors that often influence investment opportunities and strategies.

Posted on: 07/04/2020 arrow Watch Video arrow
Cumberland Advisors Week In Review 2020-06-26

Cumberland Advisors Week in Review (Jun 22, 2020 – Jun 26, 2020)

The Cumberland Advisors Week in Review is a recap of news, commentary, and opinion from our team.

Week In Review

These are not revised assessments, and circumstances may have changed in the market from the time of original publication. We also include older commentaries that our editors have determined may be of interest to our audience. Your feedback is always welcome.

CUMBERLAND ADVISORS’ WEEKLY RECAP

As part of Cumberland Advisors’ continuous effort to maintain strong customer relationships, we offer this week’s short video discussing current market conditions and how we are positioning portfolios.

Dear Clients & Friends,

Thank you for joining Cumberland Advisors for this end-of-week update on market conditions, bonds & equities with Matt McAleer, and John Moussea, CFA.

This week:
Matt McAleer on ETFs & Equities
-Everything you can ask for!
-Concerns? Financials…
-Some of the froth is coming off of June gains
-Be careful about drawing lines in the sand. We don’t know where the market will pull back to.
-We have some dry powder in the way of cash for some of our strategiesJohn Mousseau’s Update on the Fixed Income Market
-Concern over re-flaring of virus and downdraft of economic activity
-We think work will continue with no hard shut down
-On the muni side, easy week. About 8 billion in issuance, all deals well subscribed
-Cheap deals get way over subscribed – plenty of demand for cheap municipal issuance
-Retail investors are gearing up for a July 1st coupon reinvestment periodKeep in mind markets are closed on July 3rd. We’ll see you a day early on Thursday.Please reach out with any questions/comments you may have about this update; we appreciate your calls, comments, and emails. Watch in the player above or at this link: https://youtu.be/BAHK2EeiWpw

 

-Matt McAleer

Matt enjoys your feedback. You can reach him at:
-Link to Matt’s Email: Matthew.McAleer@Cumber.com
-Link to Matt’s Twitter: https://twitter.com/MattMcAleer4
-Link to Matt’s LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/matthew-c-mcaleer/
-Call Matt: (800) 257-7013

Other questions or comments? Email us at info@cumber.com or give us a call at (800) 257-7013.

Contact Matt or any one of our advisors by following this link: https://www.cumber.com/our-people/


Cumberland Advisors Market Commentary

Cumberland Advisors Market Commentary offers insights and analysis on upcoming, important economic issues that potentially impact global financial markets. Our team shares their thinking on global economic developments, market news and other factors that often influence investment opportunities and strategies. Our readers appreciate its timeliness, depth of analysis, and quality of research.

To read current and past commentaries, visit https://www.cumber.com/category/market-commentary/


South Korea vs. Brazil: Smart Policies and Practices Save Lives

Author: William Witherell, Ph.D., Post Date: June 26, 2020

Bill Witherell, Ph.D. Chief Global Economist & Portfolio Manager Email | Bio There are sharp differences in the way countries have responded to the global pandemic caused by the COVID-19 virus. A comparison of the recent experiences of South Korea, widely recognized as having the best organized COVID-19 defense, and Brazil, a strong contender for [Continued…]


Forrest Gump Responses

Author: David R. Kotok, Post Date: June 25, 2020

We’ve been compiling responses to our commentary on Forrest Gump’s advice. For those who missed it, here’s the link: https://www.cumber.com/cumberland-advisors-commentary-forrest-gumps-advice/. Now some quotes from readers. Bruce wrote: “Thanks for your Forrest Gump moment. Your most revealing sentence in all of this missive is ‘people are now required to take full responsibility for their own personal […]


Update from ECRI

Author: David R. Kotok, Post Date: June 24, 2020

Market Commentary - Cumberland Advisors - A Nasty, Short and Bitter Recession (ECRI)

“A Nasty, Short and Bitter Recession”: An Update First: here’s some very important history; then, the updated forecast! The Economic Cycle Research Institute (ECRI) specializes in “calling cycle turning points in economic growth and inflation” and has a long, exemplary history of getting those forecasts right (https://www.businesscycle.com). Cofounded by the late Geoffrey H. Moore, winner […]


Not What It Seems: Where’s the Beef?

Author: Robert Eisenbeis, Ph.D., Post Date: June 23, 2020

Not What It Seems: Where’s the Beef? As reported previously, the Federal Reserve has embarked upon an evolving series of support and lending programs as part of its emergency response to the COVID-19 pandemic. As Chairman Powell stated in his post-FOMC meeting press conference and in subsequent Congressional testimony, the Fed has responded “forcefully, proactively and aggressively” to the crisis. This is […]


Father’s Day

Author: David R. Kotok, Post Date: June 21, 2020

Happy Fathers Day

Happy Father’s Day. I will be brief so that you can get right to this Sunday’s video offering — a wonderful message on YouTube. My father was born in 1918, the year of the Spanish Flu. He grew up in the family grocery store. He worked there for his father, who worked there for his […]


 

Loretta Mester Interview

Author: David R. Kotok, Post Date: June 19, 2020

Fed president & CEO Loretta Mester On Demand Interview

Loretta Mester has a distinguished, multi-decade career with the Federal Reserve. She currently serves as president and CEO of the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, votes on the FOMC, and immerses herself deeply in the issues of America’s banks and financial institutions. She agreed to an extended and detailed hour-long discussion with GIC. Here’s the […]


Happy Birthday to Cumberland

Author: David R. Kotok, Post Date: June 18, 2020

Market Commentary - Cumberland Advisors - Happy Birthday to Cumberland June 18, 2020, is the 47th anniversary of the founding of Cumberland Advisors. My co-founding partner, the late Sheldon “Shep” Goldberg, and I had completed the filing with the Securities & Exchange Commission by mail. We complied with all appropriate rules. We used a special law firm whose expertise was needed in those days. And we […]


The FOMC: Whatever (and However Long) It Takes

Author: Robert Eisenbeis, Ph.D., Post Date: June 17, 2020

Market Commentary - Cumberland Advisors - The FOMC Whatever (and However Long) It Takes To no one’s surprise, the FOMC in its June meeting reaffirmed its 0–25 basis-point target for the federal funds rate. Markets did not react well, especially since the announcement came on the heels of a fairly downbeat assessment by Chairman Powell regarding the expected slow path for the recovery and the problems in the labor […]


AOC or MCC

Author: David R. Kotok, Post Date: June 16, 2020

David-Kotok-Quote - This is what’s best for my country “Do you have a forecast for the November election?” asked a client. Matt McAleer and I were doing a joint account review conference call. The question has been increasingly raised in our client and consultant review meetings. At the moment the answer is “no.” We watch the polls, and we noted the reduction in Trump […]


Forrest Gump’s Advice

Author: David R. Kotok, Post Date: June 14, 2020

Market Commentary - Cumberland Advisors - Is a refusal to wear a mask, as Forrest Gump said Stupid is as stupid does I wish all readers a good Sunday morning. I have to be more sobering today than I have been in recent Sunday missives. Below is a quote from POLITICO, issued on Thursday morning, June 11, 2020, at about 8:30 AM. “VP MIKE PENCE visited a TRUMP/PENCE campaign office and posted a photo of the staff standing […]


Cumberland Advisors Market Commentary – Human Emotions, Structure of Strategy, and Diversification of Risk

Author: David R. Kotok, Post Date: June 10, 2020

Human Emotions, Structure of Strategy, and Diversification of Risk

Below is a 20 year comparison of MDY (the S&P 400 midcap index) and SPY (the S&P 500 largecap index). The 20 year relative performance gap is obvious. Please look carefully at those interim periods when MDY violently outperformed SPY and also look at reversals. The typical investment question is “what happens next?” One of [Continued…]

Cumberland Advisors Market Commentary – Digging Deeper

Author: Robert Eisenbeis, Ph.D., Post Date: June 9, 2020

Market Commentary - Cumberland Advisors - Digging Deeper- Who Was and Was Not Employed

On Friday, the Dow bounced over 750 points, reacting to the May employment report. In truth, it seems that participants never read beyond the first sentence, which stated: “Total nonfarm payroll employment rose by 2.5 million in May (private sector employment increased 3.1 million while government employment declined by 585 thousand) and the unemployment rate [Continued…]


Dr. Robert Corell at USFSM

Are municipalities ready for climate change? What are the repercussions for credit ratings and bonds? We examined many different angles of climate change during our January 2019 Climate Change summit ( https://buff.ly/2WgFkWU ) led by Bob Bunting at the University of South Florida Sarasota-Manatee (USFSM) including a presentation on conditions in the arctic.

We were fortunate to have the opportunity to speak to the featured presenter, Dr. Robert Corell, about his experience in the arctic for a few minutes on camera. David R. Kotok of Cumberland Advisors leads the discussion, “What’s Happening in the Arctic,” in this short interview.

See Dr. Corell’s talk along with presentation slides at the 31:05 minute mark here: https://buff.ly/2WgFkWU


The economy is reopening in all 50 states and there is a patchwork of regulations and guidelines on how to do it safely. What about masks? Anecdotally, we still see a lot of folks not wearing them in public. What do we know?

About Masks – (Plus a personal note)

David Kotok - About MasksStraight Talk on Masks from Anthony Fauci In a widely shared YouTube interview with Lilly Singh, Anthony Fauci, head of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases (NIAID) and a member of the White House coronavirus task force, explained the rationale for wearing face masks. He also explained why the CDC didn’t initially suggest wearing them [Continued…]


Links to other websites or electronic media controlled or offered by Third-Parties (non-affiliates of Cumberland Advisors) are provided only as a reference and courtesy to our users. Cumberland Advisors has no control over such websites, does not recommend or endorse any opinions, ideas, products, information, or content of such sites, and makes no warranties as to the accuracy, completeness, reliability or suitability of their content. Cumberland Advisors hereby disclaims liability for any information, materials, products or services posted or offered at any of the Third-Party websites. The Third-Party may have a privacy and/or security policy different from that of Cumberland Advisors. Therefore, please refer to the specific privacy and security policies of the Third-Party when accessing their websites.

Sign up for our FREE Cumberland Market Commentaries

Cumberland Advisors Market Commentaries offer insights and analysis on upcoming, important economic issues that potentially impact global financial markets. Our team shares their thinking on global economic developments, market news and other factors that often influence investment opportunities and strategies.

Posted on: 06/27/2020 arrow Watch Video arrow
Cumberland Advisors Week In Review 2020-06-19

Cumberland Advisors Week in Review (Jun 15, 2020 – Jun 19, 2020)

The Cumberland Advisors Week in Review is a recap of news, commentary, and opinion from our team. These are not revised assessments, and circumstances may have changed in the market from the time of original publication. We also include older commentaries that our editors have determined may be of interest to our audience. Your feedback is always welcome.

Cumberland Advisors’ Weekly Recap

Thank you for joining Cumberland Advisors for this end-of-week update on market conditions, bonds & equities with Matt McAleer, and John Moussea, CFA.

This week:
Matt McAleer on ETFs & Equities
-What is the market trying to tell us?
-Matt has a relative strength chart to share and walk you through and he tells you what jumps out at him and what it’s telling him
-You might be shocked when he reveals what’s behind various sectorsChart
John Mousseau’s Update on the Fixed Income Market
-The real story this week is in two places
(1) Infrastructure Bill proposed – very interesting parts to it including “Build America” bonds; John details
(2) Allowing municipalities to do advanced refunding and lower their debt service costs
-What about American Airlines? No trouble selling their bonds. What does this mean?
– John explainsThanks for joining us again this week. Please reach out with any questions/comments you may have about this update; we appreciate your calls, comments, and emails. Watch in the player above or at this link: https://youtu.be/UER1arjCCe0

Stay safe, healthy, have a great weekend,
and Happy Father’s Day!

-Matt McAleer

Matt enjoys your feedback. You can reach him at:
-Link to Matt’s Email: Matthew.McAleer@Cumber.com
-Link to Matt’s Twitter: https://twitter.com/MattMcAleer4
-Link to Matt’s LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/matthew-c-mcaleer/
-Call Matt: (800) 257-7013

Other questions or comments? Email us at info@cumber.com or give us a call at (800) 257-7013


Loretta Mester Interview

Author: David R. Kotok, Post Date: June 19, 2020

Fed president & CEO Loretta Mester On Demand Interview

Loretta Mester has a distinguished, multi-decade career with the Federal Reserve. She currently serves as president and CEO of the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, votes on the FOMC, and immerses herself deeply in the issues of America’s banks and financial institutions. She agreed to an extended and detailed hour-long discussion with GIC. Here’s the […]


Happy Birthday to Cumberland

Author: David R. Kotok, Post Date: June 18, 2020

Market Commentary - Cumberland Advisors - Happy Birthday to Cumberland June 18, 2020, is the 47th anniversary of the founding of Cumberland Advisors. My co-founding partner, the late Sheldon “Shep” Goldberg, and I had completed the filing with the Securities & Exchange Commission by mail. We complied with all appropriate rules. We used a special law firm whose expertise was needed in those days. And we […]


The FOMC: Whatever (and However Long) It Takes

Author: Robert Eisenbeis, Ph.D., Post Date: June 17, 2020

Market Commentary - Cumberland Advisors - The FOMC Whatever (and However Long) It Takes To no one’s surprise, the FOMC in its June meeting reaffirmed its 0–25 basis-point target for the federal funds rate. Markets did not react well, especially since the announcement came on the heels of a fairly downbeat assessment by Chairman Powell regarding the expected slow path for the recovery and the problems in the labor […]


AOC or MCC

Author: David R. Kotok, Post Date: June 16, 2020

David-Kotok-Quote - This is what’s best for my country “Do you have a forecast for the November election?” asked a client. Matt McAleer and I were doing a joint account review conference call. The question has been increasingly raised in our client and consultant review meetings. At the moment the answer is “no.” We watch the polls, and we noted the reduction in Trump […]


Forrest Gump’s Advice

Author: David R. Kotok, Post Date: June 14, 2020

Market Commentary - Cumberland Advisors - Is a refusal to wear a mask, as Forrest Gump said Stupid is as stupid does I wish all readers a good Sunday morning. I have to be more sobering today than I have been in recent Sunday missives. Below is a quote from POLITICO, issued on Thursday morning, June 11, 2020, at about 8:30 AM. “VP MIKE PENCE visited a TRUMP/PENCE campaign office and posted a photo of the staff standing […]


Cumberland Advisors Market Commentary – Human Emotions, Structure of Strategy, and Diversification of Risk

Author: David R. Kotok, Post Date: June 10, 2020

Human Emotions, Structure of Strategy, and Diversification of Risk

Below is a 20 year comparison of MDY (the S&P 400 midcap index) and SPY (the S&P 500 largecap index). The 20 year relative performance gap is obvious. Please look carefully at those interim periods when MDY violently outperformed SPY and also look at reversals. The typical investment question is “what happens next?” One of [Continued…]

Cumberland Advisors Market Commentary – Digging Deeper

Author: Robert Eisenbeis, Ph.D., Post Date: June 9, 2020

Market Commentary - Cumberland Advisors - Digging Deeper- Who Was and Was Not Employed

On Friday, the Dow bounced over 750 points, reacting to the May employment report. In truth, it seems that participants never read beyond the first sentence, which stated: “Total nonfarm payroll employment rose by 2.5 million in May (private sector employment increased 3.1 million while government employment declined by 585 thousand) and the unemployment rate [Continued…]

Posted on: 06/20/2020 arrow Watch Video arrow
Cumberland-Advisors-Market-Update-20200612

Cumberland Advisors Week in Review (Jun 08, 2020 – Jun 12, 2020)

The Cumberland Advisors Week in Review is a recap of news, commentary, and opinion from our team.

Week In Review

These are not revised assessments, and circumstances may have changed in the market from the time of original publication. We also include older commentaries that our editors have determined may be of interest to our audience. Your feedback is always welcome.

CUMBERLAND ADVISORS’ WEEKLY RECAP

As part of Cumberland Advisors’ continuous effort to maintain strong customer relationships, we offer this week’s short video discussing current market conditions and how we are positioning portfolios.

Dear Clients & Friends,

Thank you for joining Cumberland Advisors for this end-of-week update on market conditions, bonds & equities with Matt McAleer, and John Moussea, CFA.

This week:
Matt McAleer on ETFs & Equities
-Volatility!
-We’re seeing a lot of activity by speculative call and put buyers
-They are susceptible to emotions and greed
-When you run up on stems, the pullbacks are nasty
-The pullback is making for some attractive entry points
-There’s a great battle going on: The Economy vs Headlines (COVID-19, China, protests, etc) is giving us a potpouri of danger on a day-to-day basis
-On a micro level we see some companies and sectors that look very attractive
-We’ve taken some buy/sell/cash action in strategies – Matt details
-There’s a grind ahead
John Mousseau’s Update on the Fixed Income Market
-The week in bonds – Yields are down, John details
-Muni deals are oversubscribed this week
-Munis have made a total return since the carnage of March
-Munis are a good buy on a relative basis
-John discusses the Fed and interest rates
-We want to own things that are not Treasuries – John explains 

Thanks for joining us again this week. Please reach out with any questions/comments you may have about this update; we appreciate your calls, comments, and emails.

Watch in the player above or at this link: https://youtu.be/SnnPPk2doJ4

Stay safe, healthy, and have a great weekend.

-Matt McAleer

Matt enjoys your feedback. You can reach him at:
-Link to Matt’s Email: Matthew.McAleer@Cumber.com
-Link to Matt’s Twitter: https://twitter.com/MattMcAleer4
-Link to Matt’s LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/matthew-c-mcaleer/
-Call Matt: (800) 257-7013

Other questions or comments? Email us at info@cumber.com or give us a call at (800) 257-7013.

Contact Matt or any one of our advisors by following this link: https://www.cumber.com/our-people/


Cumberland Advisors Market Commentary

Cumberland Advisors Market Commentary offers insights and analysis on upcoming, important economic issues that potentially impact global financial markets. Our team shares their thinking on global economic developments, market news and other factors that often influence investment opportunities and strategies. Our readers appreciate its timeliness, depth of analysis, and quality of research.

To read current and past commentaries, visit https://www.cumber.com/category/market-commentary/


Cumberland Advisors Market Commentary –  Human Emotions, Structure of Strategy, and Diversification of Risk

Author: David R. Kotok, Post Date: June 10, 2020
Human Emotions, Structure of Strategy, and Diversification of Risk 

Below is a 20 year comparison of MDY (the S&P 400 midcap index) and SPY (the S&P 500 largecap index). The 20 year relative performance gap is obvious. Please look carefully at those interim periods when MDY violently outperformed SPY and also look at reversals. The typical investment question is “what happens next?” One of [Continued…]

Cumberland Advisors Market Commentary – Digging Deeper

Author: Robert Eisenbeis, Ph.D., Post Date: June 9, 2020
Market Commentary - Cumberland Advisors - Digging Deeper- Who Was and Was Not Employed 

On Friday, the Dow bounced over 750 points, reacting to the May employment report. In truth, it seems that participants never read beyond the first sentence, which stated: “Total nonfarm payroll employment rose by 2.5 million in May (private sector employment increased 3.1 million while government employment declined by 585 thousand) and the unemployment rate [Continued…]

 

Cumberland Advisors Market Commentary – Where Are Munis Getting Their Money?

Author: Patricia Healy, CFA, Post Date: June 8, 2020
Market Commentary - Cumberland Advisors - Where Are Munis Getting Their Money - Patricia Healy, CFA 

Municipalities derive their revenues from many sources. At the state level, sales taxes, personal income taxes, and corporate taxes are the largest sources of revenue; and there are other taxes and fees that states can raise. We’ve all seen them, from gas taxes and fees to gambling and lottery revenue. Local governments and school districts [Continued…]

Cumberland Advisors Commentary – Four Guests

Author: David R. Kotok, Post Date: June 7, 2020
Market Commentary - Cumberland Advisors - Four GuestsI remember 1968. This is much bigger. In other commentaries we will deal with market reactions, economic outlook, and the impacts from the double whammy of rioting nationwide on top of COVID-19. This Sunday morning, we aren’t talking about markets. We’re hosting four guests. We’ll start with a 45-second question posed by educator and activist [Continued…]

Liquidity Impact on the Stock Market

Author: Leo Chen, Ph.D., Post Date: June 5, 2020

Market Commentary - Cumberland Advisors - Liquidity Impact on the Stock Market

All three major indices have continued their rallies in June: The S&P 500 is up 2.23%, the Dow Jones Industrial Average is up 3.54%, and the Nasdaq composite is up 1.33%. The S&P 500 has marked a 42% return since the March 23rd low for the large-cap index, while the Nasdaq Composite is only 2.26% [Continued…]

Mexico’s Twin Crises: The Pandemic and a Plunging Economy

Author: William Witherell, Ph.D., Post Date: June 4, 2020

Market Commentary - Cumberland Advisors - Mexico's Twin Crises The Pandemic and a Plunging Economy

South of the border, our neighbor and the second largest economy in Latin America, Mexico, is experiencing a severe and still worsening health crisis due to the COVID-19 pandemic. The dire effects of the illness itself are compounded by a brutal decline in the economy, which at the start of 2020 had already been in [Continued…]

Inflation, Deflation, and Capacity Utilization – Part 2

Author: Robert Eisenbeis, Ph.D., Post Date: June 3, 2020

Market Commentary - Cumberland Advisors - Inflation, Deflation, and Capacity Utilization – Part 2

Bloomberg’s Lisa Abramowicz recently tweeted, “When you measure the prices of things Americans are spending money on right now, ‘it turns out that the actual inflation rate is not as low’ as the data suggest” (https://twitter.com/lisaabramowicz1/status/1263868020516151298). Her evidence was a chart showing how spending for food at home had jumped while spending on food away [Continued…]

Two Covers; Two Sectors

Author: David R. Kotok, Post Date: June 2, 2020

Market Commentary - Cumberland Advisors - Two Covers Two Sectors

If you looked at the two different covers of The Economist for May 30, 2020, you saw the 100,000-death message on the American version, and you saw the Hong Kong security law depiction on the Asian edition. Internal content was mostly the same, but the lead stories reflected the world as the Economist editors saw it and wanted to [Continued…]

S&P 500 After COVID-19

Author: Leo Chen, Ph.D., Post Date: June 1, 2020

Market Commentary - Cumberland Advisors - S&P 500 After COVID-19

The S&P 500 Index is widely used as the benchmark for over $9.9 trillion in investments. After losing 35.4% in just a month, the index has rebounded 36.5% from its March 23rd bottom. These extraordinary numbers during extraordinary times are unlikely to continue after COVID-19’s impacts on the market subside. So what can we expect [Continued…]

COVID-19 Impacts & Philanthropic Opportunities: GGA Interview with Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic

Author: David R. Kotok, Post Date: May 31, 2020

Interview between Lydia Clements & Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic

Good Sunday Morning, and please take some time for a walk with your earbuds. We have for you a video call between Lydia Clements, director of the Georgia Grantmakers Alliance, and Raphael Bostic, president and chief executive officer of the Atlanta Fed: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EWIj8iNV6QU. At the SECF website the Georgia Grantmakers Alliance (GGA) is described as [Continued…]

 

Hydroxychloroquine

Author: David R. Kotok , Post Date: May 29, 2020

Market Commentary - Cumberland Advisors - The Debate Over Hydroxychloroquine

The Debate Over Hydroxychloroquine President Trump’s surprise announcement on Monday, May 18, that he is taking hydroxychloroquine as a preventative against COVID-19 prompted Fox News host Neil Cavuto to quickly warn, “If you are in a risky population here, and you are taking this as a preventative treatment to ward off the virus or in [Continued…]

Money, Taxes, Fed & COVID-19

Author: David R. Kotok, Post Date: May 26, 2020

Market Commentary - Cumberland Advisors - Money, Taxes, Fed & COVID-19

At the following link readers may download a PDF file of the May 15th Joint Committee on Taxation analysis of federal receipts attributable to the latest stimulus bill passed by the House: https://www.jct.gov/publications.html?func=startdown&id=5260. The pressure for the Senate to act is growing daily and will only intensify. We expect something to come in the way of [Continued…]


Wall Street’s road warriors have spent the past three months grounded. How’s that working out?

John Mauldin misses the little thrill of being recognized in an airport, while Barry Ritholtz muses on having staggered shifts in his office. What else did ‘lockdown’ mean to finance’s heavyweights?

June 13, 2020 By Andrea Riquier

John Mousseau before the lockdown and during
John Mousseau before the lockdown and during

MarketWatch checked in with a few high-profile financial road warriors to see how they’ve handled having to hunker down, their overnight bags gathering dust. We asked what, if any, shifts in the way financial services operate might be here to stay when things get “back to normal,” if there is such a thing.   [Continued…]


Instant View: Wall Street backslides on economic gloom, uptick in virus cases

Reuters – June 12, 2020

Cumberland-Advisors-David-Kotok-In-The-News

NEW YORK (Reuters) – Wall Street indexes nosedived on Thursday, on track for their worst days since early in the coronavirus pandemic as investors reassessed a stocks resurgence after the Fed issued a gloomy growth forecast and infections showed signs of upswing.

DAVID R KOTOK, “Everything changed with COVID fear. It provides nerve-wracking violent moves which can induce more fear or provide trading opportunities depending on the investor and their capability and discipline. I haven’t deployed any cash in this selloff yet. That could change at any time. I raised cash into the rally. At this point I wish I’d raised more. I sold stocks and raised cash.”  [Continued…]


Bloomberg Radio Interview: David Kotok – Health Care Will Be 20% of This Country’s GDP

June 11, 2020 – Running time 07:32

David Kotok, Chairman & Chief Investment Officer at Cumberland Advisors, on credit spreads and the Fed. Hosted by Vonnie Quinn and Paul Sweeney.

David Kotok Interview

LISTEN HERE: https://www.bloomberg.com/news/audio/2020-06-11/health-care-will-be-20-of-this-country-s-gdp-kotok-radio


The economy is reopening in all 50 states and there is a patchwork of regulations and guidelines on how to do it safely. What about masks? Anecdotally, we still see a lot of folks not wearing them in public. What do we know?

About Masks – (Plus a personal note)

David Kotok - About MasksStraight Talk on Masks from Anthony Fauci In a widely shared YouTube interview with Lilly Singh, Anthony Fauci, head of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases (NIAID) and a member of the White House coronavirus task force, explained the rationale for wearing face masks. He also explained why the CDC didn’t initially suggest wearing them [Continued…]


Links to other websites or electronic media controlled or offered by Third-Parties (non-affiliates of Cumberland Advisors) are provided only as a reference and courtesy to our users. Cumberland Advisors has no control over such websites, does not recommend or endorse any opinions, ideas, products, information, or content of such sites, and makes no warranties as to the accuracy, completeness, reliability or suitability of their content. Cumberland Advisors hereby disclaims liability for any information, materials, products or services posted or offered at any of the Third-Party websites. The Third-Party may have a privacy and/or security policy different from that of Cumberland Advisors. Therefore, please refer to the specific privacy and security policies of the Third-Party when accessing their websites.

Sign up for our FREE Cumberland Market Commentaries

Cumberland Advisors Market Commentaries offer insights and analysis on upcoming, important economic issues that potentially impact global financial markets. Our team shares their thinking on global economic developments, market news and other factors that often influence investment opportunities and strategies.

Posted on: 06/13/2020 arrow Watch Video arrow
Cumberland-Advisors-Market-Update-2020-06-05

Cumberland Advisors Week in Review (Jun 01, 2020 – Jun 05, 2020)

The Cumberland Advisors Week in Review is a recap of news, commentary, and opinion from our team.

Week In Review

These are not revised assessments, and circumstances may have changed in the market from the time of original publication. We also include older commentaries that our editors have determined may be of interest to our audience. Your feedback is always welcome.

CUMBERLAND ADVISORS’ WEEKLY RECAP

As part of Cumberland Advisors’ continuous effort to maintain strong customer relationships, we offer this week’s short video discussing current market conditions and how we are positioning portfolios.

Dear Clients & Friends,

Thank you for joining Cumberland Advisors for this end-of-week update on market conditions, bonds & equities with me, Matt McAleer, and Patricia Healy, CFA.

This week Matt & Patty cover…

Matt McAleer on Markets
-Headlines! Headlines! Headlines! All important? No!
-Equities: we’re seeing a change in allocations
-We have some new charts to share with you
-We’ll examine small & mid caps, relative strength, & what to watch
-1st chart – Year to Date
-2nd chart – 30 Day
-Anything away from large cap growth has been a weight on your net return. This is starting to change.
-We’re going to watch banks, industrials, energy and their spread

Patricia Healy’s Update on the Fixed Income Market
-What’s ahead
-The Municipal Calendar
-Munis and Corporate Bonds contrasted (debt, yields, and more)
-Jobless claims and Employment – Patty dives in with some detail
-Federal Stimulus – 3 Trillion on the horizon, 1 Trillion for state/local expenses (not loss in revenue)

Thanks for joining us again this week. Please reach out with any questions/comments you may have about this update; we appreciate your calls, comments, and emails. Watch in the player above or at this link: https://youtu.be/BIwaeCljzNQ

Stay safe, healthy, and have a great weekend.

-Matt McAleer

Matt enjoys your feedback. You can reach him at:
-Link to Matt’s Email: Matthew.McAleer@Cumber.com
-Link to Matt’s Twitter: https://twitter.com/MattMcAleer4
-Link to Matt’s LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/matthew-c-mcaleer/
-Call Matt: (800) 257-7013

Other questions or comments? Email us at info@cumber.com or give us a call at (800) 257-7013.

Contact Matt or any one of our advisors by following this link: https://www.cumber.com/our-people/


Cumberland Advisors Market Commentary

Cumberland Advisors Market Commentary offers insights and analysis on upcoming, important economic issues that potentially impact global financial markets. Our team shares their thinking on global economic developments, market news and other factors that often influence investment opportunities and strategies. Our readers appreciate its timeliness, depth of analysis, and quality of research.

To read current and past commentaries, visit https://www.cumber.com/category/market-commentary/


Liquidity Impact on the Stock Market

Author: Leo Chen, Ph.D., Post Date: June 5, 2020

Market Commentary - Cumberland Advisors - Liquidity Impact on the Stock Market

All three major indices have continued their rallies in June: The S&P 500 is up 2.23%, the Dow Jones Industrial Average is up 3.54%, and the Nasdaq composite is up 1.33%. The S&P 500 has marked a 42% return since the March 23rd low for the large-cap index, while the Nasdaq Composite is only 2.26% [Continued…]

Mexico’s Twin Crises: The Pandemic and a Plunging Economy

Author: William Witherell, Ph.D., Post Date: June 4, 2020

Market Commentary - Cumberland Advisors - Mexico's Twin Crises The Pandemic and a Plunging Economy

South of the border, our neighbor and the second largest economy in Latin America, Mexico, is experiencing a severe and still worsening health crisis due to the COVID-19 pandemic. The dire effects of the illness itself are compounded by a brutal decline in the economy, which at the start of 2020 had already been in [Continued…]

Inflation, Deflation, and Capacity Utilization – Part 2

Author: Robert Eisenbeis, Ph.D., Post Date: June 3, 2020

Market Commentary - Cumberland Advisors - Inflation, Deflation, and Capacity Utilization – Part 2

Bloomberg’s Lisa Abramowicz recently tweeted, “When you measure the prices of things Americans are spending money on right now, ‘it turns out that the actual inflation rate is not as low’ as the data suggest” (https://twitter.com/lisaabramowicz1/status/1263868020516151298). Her evidence was a chart showing how spending for food at home had jumped while spending on food away [Continued…]

Two Covers; Two Sectors

Author: David R. Kotok, Post Date: June 2, 2020

Market Commentary - Cumberland Advisors - Two Covers Two Sectors

If you looked at the two different covers of The Economist for May 30, 2020, you saw the 100,000-death message on the American version, and you saw the Hong Kong security law depiction on the Asian edition. Internal content was mostly the same, but the lead stories reflected the world as the Economist editors saw it and wanted to [Continued…]

S&P 500 After COVID-19

Author: Leo Chen, Ph.D., Post Date: June 1, 2020

Market Commentary - Cumberland Advisors - S&P 500 After COVID-19

The S&P 500 Index is widely used as the benchmark for over $9.9 trillion in investments. After losing 35.4% in just a month, the index has rebounded 36.5% from its March 23rd bottom. These extraordinary numbers during extraordinary times are unlikely to continue after COVID-19’s impacts on the market subside. So what can we expect [Continued…]

COVID-19 Impacts & Philanthropic Opportunities: GGA Interview with Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic

Author: David R. Kotok, Post Date: May 31, 2020

Interview between Lydia Clements & Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic

Good Sunday Morning, and please take some time for a walk with your earbuds. We have for you a video call between Lydia Clements, director of the Georgia Grantmakers Alliance, and Raphael Bostic, president and chief executive officer of the Atlanta Fed: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EWIj8iNV6QU. At the SECF website the Georgia Grantmakers Alliance (GGA) is described as [Continued…]

 

Hydroxychloroquine

Author: David R. Kotok , Post Date: May 29, 2020

Market Commentary - Cumberland Advisors - The Debate Over Hydroxychloroquine

The Debate Over Hydroxychloroquine President Trump’s surprise announcement on Monday, May 18, that he is taking hydroxychloroquine as a preventative against COVID-19 prompted Fox News host Neil Cavuto to quickly warn, “If you are in a risky population here, and you are taking this as a preventative treatment to ward off the virus or in [Continued…]

Money, Taxes, Fed & COVID-19

Author: David R. Kotok, Post Date: May 26, 2020

Market Commentary - Cumberland Advisors - Money, Taxes, Fed & COVID-19

At the following link readers may download a PDF file of the May 15th Joint Committee on Taxation analysis of federal receipts attributable to the latest stimulus bill passed by the House: https://www.jct.gov/publications.html?func=startdown&id=5260. The pressure for the Senate to act is growing daily and will only intensify. We expect something to come in the way of [Continued…]

Memorial Day

Author: David R. Kotok, Post Date: May 24, 2020

Memorial Day

“Originally, Memorial Day was known as Decoration Day, meant to honor the Union and the Confederate soldiers who died during the American Civil War. By the 1900s it had become a day to celebrate all American soldiers who died while serving in the military. It wasn’t until 1967 that it was legally named Memorial Day.” (Source: https://www.softschools.com/facts/holidays/memorial_day_facts/158/) When I served in [Continued…]

Inflation and Capacity Utilization

Author: Robert Eisenbeis, Ph.D. & David R. Kotok, Post Date: May 22, 2020

Cumberland Advisors' Robert "Bob" Eisenbeis, Ph.D.

At Cumberland, we continuously have internal strategy discussions. We decided to make one such discussion, on the subject of inflation and US capacity utilization, available in the form of a commentary to clients, consultants, and all readers. Below you’ll find a summation of our discussion, written by Bob Eisenbeis, Cumberland Advisors Chief Monetary Economist. -David [Continued…]

COVID-19, stock market, some Senators’ behavior

Author: David R. Kotok, Post Date: May 21, 2020

David R. Kotok

It’s no wonder that citizens, voters and disaffected non-voters, investors and market agents, as well as others who observe the United States, have a low opinion of the Congress. Behavior of one reflects on all. Nothing new there. But the virus crisis has taken regard for Congress to a new low level as the country [Continued…]

Cry for Brazil, and also for Latin America

Author: William Witherell, Ph.D., Post Date: May 20, 2020

Market Commentary - Cumberland Advisors - Cry for Brazil, and also for Latin America by William Witherell, Ph.D

The coronavirus is tearing through Brazil, a country ill-equipped to fight the pandemic. It’s hard-right populist leader, Jair Bolsonaro, has dismissed the virus as a “little flu.” COVID-19 is spreading through the population of 210 million, savaging both the inhabitants of the indigenous villages of the Amazon and the 13 million people packed together in [Continued…]


Bloomberg Daybreak Australia: David Kotok Discusses Dislocation in Markets/Economy

May 27, 2020 – Running time 48:27 – David joins at the 8:20 mark

David Kotok, Chairman & Chief Investment Officer at Cumberland Advisors, discusses markets, market dislocation, the economy, coronavirus, growth rates, liquidity, the bargain he sees in municipal bonds, and more. Hosted by Haidi Stroud-Watts.

Bloomberg Daybreak Australia with David R. Kotok (05-27-2020)

Watch here: https://www.bloomberg.com/news/videos/2020-05-27/-bloomberg-daybreak-australia-full-show-05-27-2020-video


The economy is reopening in all 50 states and there is a patchwork of regulations and guidelines on how to do it safely. What about masks? Anecdotally, we still see a lot of folks not wearing them in public. What do we know?

About Masks – (Plus a personal note)

David Kotok - About MasksStraight Talk on Masks from Anthony Fauci In a widely shared YouTube interview with Lilly Singh, Anthony Fauci, head of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases (NIAID) and a member of the White House coronavirus task force, explained the rationale for wearing face masks. He also explained why the CDC didn’t initially suggest wearing them [Continued…]


Links to other websites or electronic media controlled or offered by Third-Parties (non-affiliates of Cumberland Advisors) are provided only as a reference and courtesy to our users. Cumberland Advisors has no control over such websites, does not recommend or endorse any opinions, ideas, products, information, or content of such sites, and makes no warranties as to the accuracy, completeness, reliability or suitability of their content. Cumberland Advisors hereby disclaims liability for any information, materials, products or services posted or offered at any of the Third-Party websites. The Third-Party may have a privacy and/or security policy different from that of Cumberland Advisors. Therefore, please refer to the specific privacy and security policies of the Third-Party when accessing their websites.

Sign up for our FREE Cumberland Market Commentaries

Cumberland Advisors Market Commentaries offer insights and analysis on upcoming, important economic issues that potentially impact global financial markets. Our team shares their thinking on global economic developments, market news and other factors that often influence investment opportunities and strategies.

Posted on: 06/06/2020 arrow Watch Video arrow
Cumberland-Advisors-Market-Update-2020-05-29

Cumberland Advisors Week in Review (May 26, 2020 – May 29, 2020)

The Cumberland Advisors Week in Review is a recap of news, commentary, and opinion from our team.

Week In Review

These are not revised assessments, and circumstances may have changed in the market from the time of original publication. We also include older commentaries that our editors have determined may be of interest to our audience. Your feedback is always welcome.

CUMBERLAND ADVISORS’ WEEKLY RECAP

As part of Cumberland Advisors’ continuous effort to maintain strong customer relationships, we offer this week’s short video discussing current market conditions and how we are positioning portfolios.

Dear Clients & Friends,

Thank you for joining Cumberland Advisors for this end-of-week update on market conditions, bonds & equities with me, Matt McAleer, and John Mousseau. David Kotok joins us in a separate video further down in this commentary.

This week:
John Mousseau’s Update on the Fixed Income Market
-Very quiet week in the bond market
-A continued narrowing between Munis and Treasuries, but not much
-Demand for Munis is back – some can be in their own universe
-Jobless claims are down a little – good sign
-The economy continues to open up and progress
-Overall a boring week. We like boring over all the volatility earlier this spring!Matt McAleer on Markets
-Encouraging to see a bid in small and mid caps
-We have some charts to share with you
-Lean on analytics and data to achieve a flexible view
-Where do we have cash?
-The strongest markets never let you in
-The weakest markets never let you out
-We’re in a very strong market
-1st chart – This chart measures the percent of stocks in the S&P 500 currently trading above their 10 week moving average
-2nd chart – When the S&P trades 10% above its 50 day moving average – very rare! How rare? It’s only occurred six times since 1955.

David Kotok talks about Masks, Markets, and ETFs
-Good to get outside (with a mask!)
-Societies that wear masks have better outcomes, we’re new to this
-I wear a mask to protect myself and you if I contract the virus and am asymptomatic
-Unusual times, incredible series of events, unthinkable in any forecast, unpredictable
-Let’s talk markets
-In our US ETF portfolio we are:
* Overweight Healthcare – we have remained that way and continue that way as of today
* Overweight ESG – Solar, Wind, Water – we have been that way and we continue that way
* Overweight Defense – the Defense Aerospace sector. I wish it weren’t so but the world looks to be getting more dangerous
* We are not fully invested today, we have a cash reserve, it has been there and it continues to be there. We’ll see when we’ll deploy it.
* We do not know how the economics will unfold, we do not know if a second wave of the virus is coming, and we do not know when we will have widespread vaccination and effective treatments
-Please be safe and careful

Thanks for joining us again this week. Please reach out with any questions/comments you may have about this update; we appreciate your calls, comments, and emails. Watch in the player above or at this link: https://youtu.be/isgC8sSacEI

Direct link to David’s video is here or watch in the player below: https://youtu.be/ouXWLBu8SE0

 

Stay safe, healthy, and have a great weekend.

-Matt McAleer

Matt enjoys your feedback. You can reach him at:
-Link to Matt’s Email: Matthew.McAleer@Cumber.com
-Link to Matt’s Twitter: https://twitter.com/MattMcAleer4
-Link to Matt’s LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/matthew-c-mcaleer/
-Call Matt: (800) 257-7013

Other questions or comments? Email us at info@cumber.com or give us a call at (800) 257-7013.

Contact Matt or any one of our advisors by following this link: https://www.cumber.com/our-people/


Bloomberg Daybreak Australia: David Kotok Discusses Dislocation in Markets/Economy

May 27, 2020 – Running time 48:27 – David joins at the 8:20 mark

David Kotok, Chairman & Chief Investment Officer at Cumberland Advisors, discusses markets, market dislocation, the economy, coronavirus, growth rates, liquidity, the bargain he sees in municipal bonds, and more. Hosted by Haidi Stroud-Watts.

Bloomberg Daybreak Australia with David R. Kotok (05-27-2020)

Watch here: https://www.bloomberg.com/news/videos/2020-05-27/-bloomberg-daybreak-australia-full-show-05-27-2020-video


Cumberland Advisors Market Commentary

Cumberland Advisors Market Commentary offers insights and analysis on upcoming, important economic issues that potentially impact global financial markets. Our team shares their thinking on global economic developments, market news and other factors that often influence investment opportunities and strategies. Our readers appreciate its timeliness, depth of analysis, and quality of research.

To read current and past commentaries, visit https://www.cumber.com/category/market-commentary/


Hydroxychloroquine

Author: David R. Kotok , Post Date: May 29, 2020

Market Commentary - Cumberland Advisors - The Debate Over Hydroxychloroquine

The Debate Over Hydroxychloroquine President Trump’s surprise announcement on Monday, May 18, that he is taking hydroxychloroquine as a preventative against COVID-19 prompted Fox News host Neil Cavuto to quickly warn, “If you are in a risky population here, and you are taking this as a preventative treatment to ward off the virus or in [Continued…]

Money, Taxes, Fed & COVID-19

Author: David R. Kotok, Post Date: May 26, 2020

Market Commentary - Cumberland Advisors - Money, Taxes, Fed & COVID-19

At the following link readers may download a PDF file of the May 15th Joint Committee on Taxation analysis of federal receipts attributable to the latest stimulus bill passed by the House: https://www.jct.gov/publications.html?func=startdown&id=5260. The pressure for the Senate to act is growing daily and will only intensify. We expect something to come in the way of [Continued…]

Memorial Day

Author: David R. Kotok, Post Date: May 24, 2020

Memorial Day

“Originally, Memorial Day was known as Decoration Day, meant to honor the Union and the Confederate soldiers who died during the American Civil War. By the 1900s it had become a day to celebrate all American soldiers who died while serving in the military. It wasn’t until 1967 that it was legally named Memorial Day.” (Source: https://www.softschools.com/facts/holidays/memorial_day_facts/158/) When I served in [Continued…]

Inflation and Capacity Utilization

Author: Robert Eisenbeis, Ph.D. & David R. Kotok, Post Date: May 22, 2020

Cumberland Advisors' Robert "Bob" Eisenbeis, Ph.D.

At Cumberland, we continuously have internal strategy discussions. We decided to make one such discussion, on the subject of inflation and US capacity utilization, available in the form of a commentary to clients, consultants, and all readers. Below you’ll find a summation of our discussion, written by Bob Eisenbeis, Cumberland Advisors Chief Monetary Economist. -David [Continued…]

COVID-19, stock market, some Senators’ behavior

Author: David R. Kotok, Post Date: May 21, 2020

David R. Kotok

It’s no wonder that citizens, voters and disaffected non-voters, investors and market agents, as well as others who observe the United States, have a low opinion of the Congress. Behavior of one reflects on all. Nothing new there. But the virus crisis has taken regard for Congress to a new low level as the country [Continued…]

Cry for Brazil, and also for Latin America

Author: William Witherell, Ph.D., Post Date: May 20, 2020

Market Commentary - Cumberland Advisors - Cry for Brazil, and also for Latin America by William Witherell, Ph.D

The coronavirus is tearing through Brazil, a country ill-equipped to fight the pandemic. It’s hard-right populist leader, Jair Bolsonaro, has dismissed the virus as a “little flu.” COVID-19 is spreading through the population of 210 million, savaging both the inhabitants of the indigenous villages of the Amazon and the 13 million people packed together in [Continued…]

Zika Vaccine

Author: David R. Kotok, Post Date: May 19, 2020

Zika-Pamphlet-by-David-R-Kotok

What seems like ages ago, we wrote about Zika. Multiple commentaries became a pamphlet which was and is available free. Here’s the link: https://www.cumber.com/zika/. In that pamphlet is a chapter about how a political fight held up Zika vaccine research for a year. The costs in human and monetary terms are estimated in the pamphlet. [Continued…]

Inflation/Deflation: What Do We Know Now?

Author: Robert Eisenbeis, Ph.D., Post Date: May 18, 2020

Cumberland Advisors' Robert "Bob" Eisenbeis, Ph.D.

The most recent CPI numbers show a decline of 0.8% for the month of April, triggering questions about both a possible deflation and where prices are likely to go in the future. The fact is that no one knows what inflation will do in the short run, and all we have to go on, as [Continued…]


Financial Markets & the Economy – Financial Literacy Day.

Cumberland Advisors in partnership with the University of South Florida, Sarasota-Manatee (USFSM) and the Global Interdependence Center (GIC) are proud to host this annual event.

If you were able to attend our February 14, 2020 event in person, you know how valuable the information was and still is. Didn’t make it? Enjoy it now, on-demand.

Financial Markets & The Economy - Financial Literacy Day Stream Play Now

As news of the coronavirus and its spread was mounting, we offered anyone in attendance a facemask as a precaution. This was two weeks in advance of the CDC making its recommendation and is an example of one of the forward thinking positions we endeavor to employ when it comes to our firm.

The University of South Florida, Sarasota-Manatee (USFSM) has once again provided a replay of the day’s event via their streaming server. Please click the graphic above or visit the following link to watch “Financial Markets and the Economy – Financial Literacy Day 2020.”

https://mediasite.usfsm.edu/Mediasite/Play/b1093c21f612418e83b4f36e274f1c531d

Presentation Documents

The documents are supplementary and provide further information and context to the presentations.

Also, see Bloomberg’s website for Mike McKee’s interview with Loretta Mester, President and CEO, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland. Loretta was our keynote speaker and Mike joined us for the day at the University Of South Florida Sarasota-Manatee.


Cleveland Fed President Loretta Mester Video with Play Button
To watch, click the picture above or follow this link: https://www.bloomberg.com/news/videos/2020-02-14/fed-s-mester-on-u-s-economy-coronavirus-risk-and-rates-video


Links to other websites or electronic media controlled or offered by Third-Parties (non-affiliates of Cumberland Advisors) are provided only as a reference and courtesy to our users. Cumberland Advisors has no control over such websites, does not recommend or endorse any opinions, ideas, products, information, or content of such sites, and makes no warranties as to the accuracy, completeness, reliability or suitability of their content. Cumberland Advisors hereby disclaims liability for any information, materials, products or services posted or offered at any of the Third-Party websites. The Third-Party may have a privacy and/or security policy different from that of Cumberland Advisors. Therefore, please refer to the specific privacy and security policies of the Third-Party when accessing their websites.

Sign up for our FREE Cumberland Market Commentaries

Cumberland Advisors Market Commentaries offer insights and analysis on upcoming, important economic issues that potentially impact global financial markets. Our team shares their thinking on global economic developments, market news and other factors that often influence investment opportunities and strategies.

Posted on: 05/30/2020 arrow Watch Video arrow
Cumberland-Advisors-Market-Update-20200522

Cumberland Advisors Week in Review (May 18, 2020 – May 22, 2020)

The Cumberland Advisors Week in Review is a recap of news, commentary, and opinion from our team.

Week In Review

These are not revised assessments, and circumstances may have changed in the market from the time of original publication. We also include older commentaries that our editors have determined may be of interest to our audience. Your feedback is always welcome.

CUMBERLAND ADVISORS’ WEEKLY RECAP

As part of Cumberland Advisors’ continuous effort to maintain strong customer relationships, we offer this week’s short video discussing current market conditions and how we are positioning portfolios.

Dear Clients & Friends,
Thank you for joining Cumberland Advisors for this end-of-week update on market conditions, bonds & equities with Matt McAleer, and John Mousseau.
John and Matt are back at the office, taking turns on camera so they can continue to inform you and practice safe social distancing. Their takes follow.
John Mousseau’s Update on the Fixed Income Market
-Fairly calm. -10yr & 30yr ticked up this week
-Real story is with tax-free bonds and a bump of 15/17 bps
-Narrowing of spreads between markets
-We expect gap to continue to close as things improve overall in the economy
-There’s talk of more help for state/local gov’ts
-The MTA in NY was able to access the Fed’s short-term note program
-Deals were oversubscribed this week by up to 7-times
-We predict an eventual rise in taxes, no matter who is in the White House
-A rise in the Federal Marginal Top Tax Rate will boost the value of all Municipal Bonds, all other things being equal.
Matt McAleer on Equities
-We had a pretty good bid this week; most of it Monday on vaccine news
-Now on to discuss how we’re positioned in strategies
-US Equity Strategy -International Strategy
-Tactical Trend Strategy -Blend of US Portfolios & Fixed Income
-What about Biotech?
-We are cautious and we try not to get “beyond our headlights”
-We’re back to 2950 with a whole new basket of headaches
-Are we too far “over our skis” in the Equity Market?
-Matt’s Mantra on Capital Allocation: We want to allocate capital on pullbacks to sectors that are working
Thanks for joining us again this week. Please reach out with any questions/comments you may have about this update; we appreciate your calls, comments, and emails. Watch in the player above or at this link: https://youtu.be/rQ8F7kpbios
Stay safe, healthy, and have a great weekend.

Matt enjoys your feedback. You can reach him at:
-Link to Matt’s Email: Matthew.McAleer@Cumber.com
-Link to Matt’s Twitter: https://twitter.com/MattMcAleer4
-Link to Matt’s LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/matthew-c-mcaleer/
-Call Matt: (800) 257-7013

Other questions or comments? Email us at info@cumber.com or give us a call at (800) 257-7013.

Contact Matt or any one of our advisors by following this link: https://www.cumber.com/our-people/

 


Cumberland Advisors In The News

BondBuyer – Municipal short-end rally grinds on

Quoted: John R. Mousseau, CFA | Posted on: 05/20/2020 read more

Illinois to sell debt as fiscal woes worsen in coronavirus outbreak

Quoted: John R. Mousseau, CFA | Posted on: 05/07/2020 read more

More News About Cumberland Advisors Here: https://www.cumber.com/news


Cumberland Advisors Market Commentary

Cumberland Advisors Market Commentary offers insights and analysis on upcoming, important economic issues that potentially impact global financial markets. Our team shares their thinking on global economic developments, market news and other factors that often influence investment opportunities and strategies. Our readers appreciate its timeliness, depth of analysis, and quality of research.

To read current and past commentaries, visit https://www.cumber.com/category/market-commentary/

 


Inflation and Capacity Utilization

Author: Robert Eisenbeis, Ph.D. & David R. Kotok, Post Date: May 22, 2020

Cumberland Advisors' Robert "Bob" Eisenbeis, Ph.D.

At Cumberland, we continuously have internal strategy discussions. We decided to make one such discussion, on the subject of inflation and US capacity utilization, available in the form of a commentary to clients, consultants, and all readers. Below you’ll find a summation of our discussion, written by Bob Eisenbeis, Cumberland Advisors Chief Monetary Economist. -David [Continued…]

COVID-19, stock market, some Senators’ behavior

Author: David R. Kotok, Post Date: May 21, 2020

David R. Kotok

It’s no wonder that citizens, voters and disaffected non-voters, investors and market agents, as well as others who observe the United States, have a low opinion of the Congress. Behavior of one reflects on all. Nothing new there. But the virus crisis has taken regard for Congress to a new low level as the country [Continued…]

Cry for Brazil, and also for Latin America

Author: William Witherell, Ph.D., Post Date: May 20, 2020

Market Commentary - Cumberland Advisors - Cry for Brazil, and also for Latin America by William Witherell, Ph.D

The coronavirus is tearing through Brazil, a country ill-equipped to fight the pandemic. It’s hard-right populist leader, Jair Bolsonaro, has dismissed the virus as a “little flu.” COVID-19 is spreading through the population of 210 million, savaging both the inhabitants of the indigenous villages of the Amazon and the 13 million people packed together in [Continued…]

Zika Vaccine

Author: David R. Kotok, Post Date: May 19, 2020

Zika-Pamphlet-by-David-R-Kotok

What seems like ages ago, we wrote about Zika. Multiple commentaries became a pamphlet which was and is available free. Here’s the link: https://www.cumber.com/zika/. In that pamphlet is a chapter about how a political fight held up Zika vaccine research for a year. The costs in human and monetary terms are estimated in the pamphlet. [Continued…]

Inflation/Deflation: What Do We Know Now?

Author: Robert Eisenbeis, Ph.D., Post Date: May 18, 2020

Cumberland Advisors' Robert "Bob" Eisenbeis, Ph.D.

The most recent CPI numbers show a decline of 0.8% for the month of April, triggering questions about both a possible deflation and where prices are likely to go in the future. The fact is that no one knows what inflation will do in the short run, and all we have to go on, as [Continued…]

Good Morning to Betsy and to Liz

Author: David R. Kotok, Post Date: May 17, 2020

Guest Commentary - Cumberland Advisors - Good Morning to Betsy and to Liz

My friend Betsy emailed me and said, “You’re having too much fun.” Thank you, Betsy. You are correct, as usual. Dear Readers, we have to maintain some sense of something or other (joie de vivre, perhaps) during this constant barrage from the news flow. The Sunday morning missives started with “Daffodils” (https://www.cumber.com/cumberland-advisors-market-commentary-daffodils/). The response to [Continued…]

Risking an Investment War with China

Author: William Witherell, Ph.D., Post Date: May 15, 2020

Market Commentary - Cumberland Advisors - Risking an Investment War with China by William Witherell, Ph.D

Not having learned the costly lessons of a US-China trade war, the US government has now taken action that risks triggering an investment war with China that could have serious negative effects on the economies of both countries at a time when each will be seeking to recover from the heavy impacts of the COVID-19 [Continued…]

Trump Opportunity, Puerto Rico, Pharma

Author: David R. Kotok, Post Date: May 13, 2020

Cumberland Advisors Market Commentary - Trump Opportunity, Puerto Rico, Pharma

My friend Dennis Gartman had a guest commentary in the wonderful and comprehensive monthly research publication offered by Gary Shilling (www.agaryshilling.com) and thoughtfully assembled and edited by Fred Rossi. I thank both Gary and Fred for permission to quote their work. Dennis wrote: “Puerto Rico shall be a huge winner, for it was only a [Continued…]


Cumberland Advisors HQ is in Sarasota, Fla., and we’re preparing for another hurricane season starting June 6th along with the COVID-19 precautions the rest of the country is engaged in. Here’s a look back at Cumberland Advisors’ small, fact-finding group that went to Key West and five other Keys that were hit by Hurricane Irma. We spoke to many locals, park officials, business owners, including numerous fishing guides that lost homes and their business assets to the immense power of Hurricane Irma. See the story here: https://www.cumber.com/florida-keys-devastation-after-hurricane-irma/

Immediately after Hurricane Irma’s eye passed over the Florida Keys, massive damage to the Lower and Middle Keys was apparent where hundreds of homes and businesses were destroyed by high winds and a huge storm surge.


Links to other websites or electronic media controlled or offered by Third-Parties (non-affiliates of Cumberland Advisors) are provided only as a reference and courtesy to our users. Cumberland Advisors has no control over such websites, does not recommend or endorse any opinions, ideas, products, information, or content of such sites, and makes no warranties as to the accuracy, completeness, reliability or suitability of their content. Cumberland Advisors hereby disclaims liability for any information, materials, products or services posted or offered at any of the Third-Party websites. The Third-Party may have a privacy and/or security policy different from that of Cumberland Advisors. Therefore, please refer to the specific privacy and security policies of the Third-Party when accessing their websites.

Sign up for our FREE Cumberland Market Commentaries

Cumberland Advisors Market Commentaries offer insights and analysis on upcoming, important economic issues that potentially impact global financial markets. Our team shares their thinking on global economic developments, market news and other factors that often influence investment opportunities and strategies.

Posted on: 05/23/2020 arrow Watch Video arrow
Cumberland-Advisors-Market-Update-20200515

Cumberland Advisors Week in Review (May 11, 2020 – May 15, 2020)

The Cumberland Advisors Week in Review is a recap of news, commentary, and opinion from our team.

Week In Review

These are not revised assessments, and circumstances may have changed in the market from the time of original publication. We also include older commentaries that our editors have determined may be of interest to our audience. Your feedback is always welcome.

CUMBERLAND ADVISORS’ WEEKLY RECAP

As part of Cumberland Advisors’ continuous effort to maintain strong customer relationships, we offer this week’s short video discussing current market conditions and how we are positioning portfolios.

Thank you for joining Cumberland Advisors for this end-of-week update on market conditions, bonds & equities.

Matt McAleer and John Mousseau are at their favorite watering hole close to the shop, a restaurant called Café Epicure that serves, in our humble opinion, great food and refreshments. We’re here today to demonstrate our support for other small businesses and the restaurant industry that’s been hit so hard this year.

-Matt starts off and becomes one with the market by paraphrasing Welsh poet Dylan Thomas: “No! I will not go gentle into this good night!”
-“Do not go gentle into that good night” is a poem in the form of a villanelle, and is Dylan Thomas’ most famous work (1914–1953)
-Matt says we’ve had some weakness in some of the short-term momentum indicators this week
-The market had every reason to roll over but it stayed strong
-Everyone has an opinion on this market, but they don’t know anything more than you or I do
-Supply and Demand will continue to run the market
-An impressive Thursday and Friday
-Next week, we’re going to cover each strategy and layout how we’re positioned: equities, fixed income, and cash

-John has some things he hopes you’ll takeaway from this week
1) Bond Market is pretty quiet – John gives details
2) Federal Reserve Chairman Jay Powell was out front and center this week asserting that the Fed does not want negative interest rates. We think that;s very good. He did leave the door open but said, “Not now.” We don’t think they want to do it for multiple reasons.
3) In the Muni World there are some credit issues around transit and sales tax. However water, sewer, and electric are doing well. We’re seeing big demand for paper and they have access to capital markets, a very good sign for the municipal bond market.

Thanks for joining us and if you’re in the neighborhood, make sure you stop by and patronize a small business. Who knows? You might run into Matt and John at Café Epicure in Downtown Sarasota! Just in case, here’s their website with their menu: http://www.cafeepicure.com/

Please reach out with any questions/comments you may have about this week’s update; we appreciate your calls, comments, and emails. Watch in the player above or at this link: https://youtu.be/B8dio4pz5lg

Stay safe, healthy, and have a great weekend.

Matt enjoys your feedback. You can reach him at:
-Link to Matt’s Email: Matthew.McAleer@Cumber.com
-Link to Matt’s Twitter: https://twitter.com/MattMcAleer4
-Link to Matt’s LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/matthew-c-mcaleer/
-Call Matt: (800) 257-7013

Other questions or comments? Email us at info@cumber.com or give us a call at (800) 257-7013.

Contact Matt or any one of our advisors by following this link: https://www.cumber.com/our-people/

 


Cumberland Advisors In The News

Barron’s – Wave Of COVID-19 Bankruptcies Poses Next Threat To US Economy

Quoted: David R. Kotok | Posted on: 05/14/2020

ROBERT EISENBEIS: Too early to tell on financial relief programs in pandemic

Quoted: Robert Eisenbeis, Ph.D. | Posted on: 05/11/2020

Illinois to sell debt as fiscal woes worsen in coronavirus outbreak

Quoted: John R. Mousseau, CFA | Posted on: 05/07/2020 read more

Bloomberg Radio Interview: David Kotok on Fed News

Quoted: David R. Kotok | Posted on: 04/30/2020 read more

HeraldTribune.com – Mitch McConnell as Meredith Whitney

Quoted: John R. Mousseau, CFA | Posted on: 04/27/2020 read more

More News About Cumberland Advisors Here: https://www.cumber.com/news


Cumberland Advisors Market Commentary

Cumberland Advisors Market Commentary offers insights and analysis on upcoming, important economic issues that potentially impact global financial markets. Our team shares their thinking on global economic developments, market news and other factors that often influence investment opportunities and strategies. Our readers appreciate its timeliness, depth of analysis, and quality of research.

To read current and past commentaries, visit https://www.cumber.com/category/market-commentary/

 


Cumberland Advisors Market Commentary – Risking an Investment War with China

Author: William Witherell, Ph.D., Post Date: May 15, 2020

Market Commentary - Cumberland Advisors - Risking an Investment War with China by William Witherell, Ph.D Not having learned the costly lessons of a US-China trade war, the US government has now taken action that risks triggering an investment war with China that could have serious negative effects on the economies of both countries at a time when each will be seeking to recover from the heavy impacts of the COVID-19 [Continued…]

Cumberland Advisors Market Commentary – Trump Opportunity, Puerto Rico, Pharma

Author: David R. Kotok, Post Date: May 13, 2020

Cumberland Advisors Market Commentary - Trump Opportunity, Puerto Rico, Pharma My friend Dennis Gartman had a guest commentary in the wonderful and comprehensive monthly research publication offered by Gary Shilling (www.agaryshilling.com) and thoughtfully assembled and edited by Fred Rossi. I thank both Gary and Fred for permission to quote their work. Dennis wrote: “Puerto Rico shall be a huge winner, for it was only a [Continued…]

Cumberland Advisors Market Commentary – Comments on April Job Losses

Author: David R. Kotok, Post Date: May 11, 2020

Cumberland Advisors Market Commentary - APRIL JOB LOSSES - TLRwire Dear readers, Here’s a meaty analysis of the Friday employment report. Please note the link will take you to a $27 a month trial. After you read this report, you may find it worthwhile. Please note: I’m a paying subscriber. Enjoy. -David COMMENTS ON APRIL JOB LOSSES TLR Analytics An appalling employment report, reflecting massive [Continued…]

Cumberland Advisors Market Commentary – Readers Response to WW2 Metaphor

Author: David R. Kotok, Post Date: May 10, 2020

Cumberland Advisors Market Commentary - Readers Response to WW2 Metaphor This Sunday morning we wish to thank readers for their many emails over the last few months. We particularly welcome the historical references and comments about our WW2 analogy for WWC, the world’s battle against COVID-19. Here are some to consider. Then we have a YouTube video for you at the end. Thank you to [Continued…]

Part 2: Information is Beautiful – Early Florida Cases or Cover Up?

Author: David R. Kotok, Post Date: May 7, 2020

COVID-19 The Best Protection is the Truth As late as March 11, Fla. Gov. Ron DeSantis was denying that community spread was taking place, a claim that ran directly counter to statements made the day before by Dr. Anthony Fauci of the White House COVID-19 Task Force. It is now clear, however, that behind the scenes the state was collecting data that suggested much earlier community transmission. [Continued…]

Information Is Beautiful (And Useful)

Author: David R. Kotok, Post Date: May 6, 2020

Information Is Beautiful (And Useful)

Hat tip to Barry Ritholtz for including in his daily reading list a link to a compelling and enlightening set of coronavirus infographics from Information Is Beautiful. Here is that link: https://informationisbeautiful.net/visualizations/covid-19-coronavirus-infographic-datapack/. First, a preface. Readers please note that the statistics shown in the infographics are the “official” counts. In the US those statistics are [Continued…]

Black Swan and SKEW

Author: Leo Chen, Ph.D., Post Date: May 5, 2020

Market Commentary - Cumberland Advisors - Black Swan and SKEW (Leo Chen) The term black swan refers to rare events that are unpredictable in nature. These events are mathematically difficult to compute and statistically insignificant. Black Monday on October 19, 1987, is a typical example. One may consider the COVID-19 pandemic a black swan as well. CBOE launched the SKEW Index in 1990, and it has been [Continued…]

Good Morning to Bill Allen

Author: David R. Kotok, Post Date: May 4, 2020

Guest Commentary - Cumberland Advisors - Good Morning to Bill Allen Dear Readers, We would like to open our Sunday morning missive with this two minute message introduced by a prominent COVID19 survivor. We thank Christian Calgie for bringing this video to our attention: Geoffrey Cox reading Jerusalem accompanied by the orchestral music: I promise you, however prepared you think you are, it exceeds expectations. [Continued…]


Cumberland Advisors HQ is in Sarasota, Fla., and we’re preparing for another hurricane season starting June 6th along  with the COVID-19 precautions the rest of the country is engaged in. Here’s a look back at Cumberland Advisors’ small, fact-finding group that went to Key West and five other Keys that were hit by Hurricane Irma. We spoke to many locals, park officials, business owners, including numerous fishing guides that lost homes and their business assets to the immense power of Hurricane Irma. See the story here: https://www.cumber.com/florida-keys-devastation-after-hurricane-irma/

Immediately after Hurricane Irma’s eye passed over the Florida Keys, massive damage to the Lower and Middle Keys was apparent where hundreds of homes and businesses were destroyed by high winds and a huge storm surge.


Links to other websites or electronic media controlled or offered by Third-Parties (non-affiliates of Cumberland Advisors) are provided only as a reference and courtesy to our users. Cumberland Advisors has no control over such websites, does not recommend or endorse any opinions, ideas, products, information, or content of such sites, and makes no warranties as to the accuracy, completeness, reliability or suitability of their content. Cumberland Advisors hereby disclaims liability for any information, materials, products or services posted or offered at any of the Third-Party websites. The Third-Party may have a privacy and/or security policy different from that of Cumberland Advisors. Therefore, please refer to the specific privacy and security policies of the Third-Party when accessing their websites.

Sign up for our FREE Cumberland Market Commentaries

Cumberland Advisors Market Commentaries offer insights and analysis on upcoming, important economic issues that potentially impact global financial markets. Our team shares their thinking on global economic developments, market news and other factors that often influence investment opportunities and strategies.

Posted on: 05/16/2020 arrow Watch Video arrow
Cumberland-Advisors-Market-Update-20200508

Cumberland Advisors Week in Review (May 04, 2020 – May 08, 2020)

The Cumberland Advisors Week in Review is a recap of news, commentary, and opinion from our team.

Week In Review

These are not revised assessments, and circumstances may have changed in the market from the time of original publication. We also include older commentaries that our editors have determined may be of interest to our audience. Your feedback is always welcome.

CUMBERLAND ADVISORS’ WEEKLY RECAP

As part of Cumberland Advisors’ continuous effort to maintain strong customer relationships, we offer this week’s short video discussing current market conditions and how we are positioning portfolios.

Thank you for joining Cumberland Advisors for this end-of-week update on market conditions, bonds & equities. Matt McAleer and John Mousseau are both on camera today.

John Mousseau:
-In the Bond Market we say Treasury Yields going up and Municipal Yields coming down.
-The Municipal Market continues to repair
-We explain why we think that market is attractive
-We give some thoughts on unemployment
-What’s happening with the MTA of New York? We talk about it with some detail.
-“Well known names will soon get a decent reception, it’s usually just a matter of price.”
Matt McAleer:
-The Market will make investors feel foolish from time to time. Why? Matt explains.
-You main enemy as a trader, as an investor, is looking you right in the mirror!
-Don’t compartmentalize single trades.
-“The biggest mistake an investor, or trader, or a portfolio manager can do is lose perspective and confidence in what they’re trying to -accomplish with capital that they’re managing.”
-Have a plan!

Please reach out with any questions/comments you may have about this week’s update; we appreciate your calls, comments, and emails. Watch in the player above or at this link: https://youtu.be/5B58mfnLovs

Stay safe, healthy, and have a great weekend.

Matt enjoys your feedback. You can reach him at:
-Link to Matt’s Email: Matthew.McAleer@Cumber.com
-Link to Matt’s Twitter: https://twitter.com/MattMcAleer4
-Link to Matt’s LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/matthew-c-mcaleer/
-Call Matt: (800) 257-7013

Other questions or comments? Email us at info@cumber.com or give us a call at (800) 257-7013.

Contact Matt or any one of our advisors by following this link: https://www.cumber.com/our-people/

 


Cumberland Advisors In The News

Illinois to sell debt as fiscal woes worsen in coronavirus outbreak

Quoted: John R. Mousseau, CFA | Posted on: 05/07/2020 read more

Bloomberg Radio Interview: David Kotok on Fed News

Quoted: David R. Kotok | Posted on: 04/30/2020 read more

HeraldTribune.com – Mitch McConnell as Meredith Whitney

Quoted: John R. Mousseau, CFA | Posted on: 04/27/2020 read more

 

More News About Cumberland Advisors Here: https://www.cumber.com/news


Cumberland Advisors Market Commentary

Cumberland Advisors Market Commentary offers insights and analysis on upcoming, important economic issues that potentially impact global financial markets. Our team shares their thinking on global economic developments, market news and other factors that often influence investment opportunities and strategies. Our readers appreciate its timeliness, depth of analysis, and quality of research.

To read current and past commentaries, visit https://www.cumber.com/category/market-commentary/

 


Part 2: Information is Beautiful – Early Florida Cases or Cover Up?

Author: David R. Kotok, Post Date: May 7, 2020

COVID-19 The Best Protection is the Truth As late as March 11, Fla. Gov. Ron DeSantis was denying that community spread was taking place, a claim that ran directly counter to statements made the day before by Dr. Anthony Fauci of the White House COVID-19 Task Force. It is now clear, however, that behind the scenes the state was collecting data that suggested much earlier community transmission. [Continued…]

Information Is Beautiful (And Useful)

Author: David R. Kotok, Post Date: May 6, 2020

Information Is Beautiful (And Useful)

Hat tip to Barry Ritholtz for including in his daily reading list a link to a compelling and enlightening set of coronavirus infographics from Information Is Beautiful. Here is that link: https://informationisbeautiful.net/visualizations/covid-19-coronavirus-infographic-datapack/. First, a preface. Readers please note that the statistics shown in the infographics are the “official” counts. In the US those statistics are [Continued…]

Black Swan and SKEW

Author: Leo Chen, Ph.D., Post Date: May 5, 2020

Market Commentary - Cumberland Advisors - Black Swan and SKEW (Leo Chen) The term black swan refers to rare events that are unpredictable in nature. These events are mathematically difficult to compute and statistically insignificant. Black Monday on October 19, 1987, is a typical example. One may consider the COVID-19 pandemic a black swan as well. CBOE launched the SKEW Index in 1990, and it has been [Continued…]

Good Morning to Bill Allen

Author: David R. Kotok, Post Date: May 4, 2020

Guest Commentary - Cumberland Advisors - Good Morning to Bill Allen Dear Readers, We would like to open our Sunday morning missive with this two minute message introduced by a prominent COVID19 survivor. We thank Christian Calgie for bringing this video to our attention: Geoffrey Cox reading Jerusalem accompanied by the orchestral music: I promise you, however prepared you think you are, it exceeds expectations. [Continued…]

 

Short-Term vs. Long-Term VIX

Author: Leo Chen Ph.D., Post Date: May 1, 2020

CA-Market-Commentary-Short-Term vs. Long-Term VIX

As the equity markets rally from the March 24th bottom gains steam, the VIX volatility index has more than halved since its all-time high on March 16th. VIX hit the 80 level for the first time during the financial crisis. Unlike a decade ago, it only took a month for the VIX to drop below [Continued…]

The Covid-19 Blame Game, Part 1

Author: David R. Kotok, Post Date: April 30, 2020

Market Commentary - Cumberland Advisors - The Covid-19 Blame Game, Part 1

As the SARS-CoV-2 coronavirus emerged in Wuhan, spread throughout China (as millions of Wuhan residents fled their city), and then found its way overseas to cause a global pandemic, pressure mounted on governments to justify their actions in response, and a blame game soon ensued, with the Chinese and US among the main players. Initially, [Continued…]

The Fed and Markets

Author: Robert Eisenbeis, Ph.D., Post Date: April 28, 2020

Federal Reserve Building

Congress and the Trump administration have embarked upon a massive federal stimulus program to mitigate the impact of the coronavirus on the US economy. At the same time, the Federal Reserve has stepped up to bolster financial markets, having announced, in addition to its ongoing support of the repo market, a series of ten loan [Continued…]


Summer approaches! Here at Cumberland Advisors HQ in Sarasota, Fla., it also means hurricane season is on the horizon along with a possible return of Red Tide. This natural phenomena is thought to be amplified by human activity along the Gulf of Mexico. What can be done? Lenny Landau & David R. Kotok discuss “The Puzzle of Red Tide” where Lenny brings his experience as an engineer to bear.


Links to other websites or electronic media controlled or offered by Third-Parties (non-affiliates of Cumberland Advisors) are provided only as a reference and courtesy to our users. Cumberland Advisors has no control over such websites, does not recommend or endorse any opinions, ideas, products, information, or content of such sites, and makes no warranties as to the accuracy, completeness, reliability or suitability of their content. Cumberland Advisors hereby disclaims liability for any information, materials, products or services posted or offered at any of the Third-Party websites. The Third-Party may have a privacy and/or security policy different from that of Cumberland Advisors. Therefore, please refer to the specific privacy and security policies of the Third-Party when accessing their websites.

Sign up for our FREE Cumberland Market Commentaries

Cumberland Advisors Market Commentaries offer insights and analysis on upcoming, important economic issues that potentially impact global financial markets. Our team shares their thinking on global economic developments, market news and other factors that often influence investment opportunities and strategies.

Posted on: 05/09/2020 arrow Watch Video arrow
Cumberland-Advisors-Market-Update-20200501

Cumberland Advisors Week in Review (Apr 27, 2020 – May 01, 2020)

Thank you for joining Cumberland Advisors for this end-of-week update on market conditions, bonds & equities with Matt McAleer and John Mousseau.

 



John joins Matt on camera this week and they talk about:
-Our thoughts on small cap and mid cap rallies
-Demand during pullbacks
-Our adjustments in portfolios
-Biotech
-Weekly momentum
-What we hope to see next week
-Bond outflows
-Congress
-Stimulus
-Direct aid
-Unemployment
-Where bond yields are going
-Bond deals coming to market
-Oversubscription
-The state of Illinois, its reception, and why it’s important

Thank you for taking the time to join us.

Please reach out with any questions/comments you may have about this week’s update; we appreciate your calls, comments, and emails.

Watch in the player above or at this link: https://youtu.be/4vUpP9TFAXY

Have a safe weekend,

-Matt McAleer

Ways to reach Matt:

-Link to Matt’s Email: Matthew.McAleer@Cumber.com
-Link to Matt’s Twitter: https://twitter.com/MattMcAleer4
-Link to Matt’s LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/matthew-c-mcaleer/
-Call Matt: (800) 257-7013

Other questions or comments? Email us at info@cumber.com or give us a call at (800) 257-7013.

 

Contact any one of our advisors by following this link: https://www.cumber.com/our-people/


MARKET COMMENTARY

Short-Term vs. Long-Term VIX

Author: Leo Chen Ph.D., Post Date: May 1, 2020

CA-Market-Commentary-Short-Term vs. Long-Term VIX As the equity markets rally from the March 24th bottom gains steam, the VIX volatility index has more than halved since its all-time high on March 16th. VIX hit the 80 level for the first time during the financial crisis. Unlike a decade ago, it only took a month for the VIX to drop below [Continued…]

The Covid-19 Blame Game, Part 1

Author: David R. Kotok, Post Date: April 30, 2020

Market Commentary - Cumberland Advisors - The Covid-19 Blame Game, Part 1 As the SARS-CoV-2 coronavirus emerged in Wuhan, spread throughout China (as millions of Wuhan residents fled their city), and then found its way overseas to cause a global pandemic, pressure mounted on governments to justify their actions in response, and a blame game soon ensued, with the Chinese and US among the main players. Initially, [Continued…]

The Fed and Markets

Author: Robert Eisenbeis, Ph.D., Post Date: April 28, 2020

Federal Reserve Building Congress and the Trump administration have embarked upon a massive federal stimulus program to mitigate the impact of the coronavirus on the US economy. At the same time, the Federal Reserve has stepped up to bolster financial markets, having announced, in addition to its ongoing support of the repo market, a series of ten loan [Continued…]

Take a Deep Breath

Author: David R. Kotok, Post Date: April 26, 2020

Guest Commentary - Cumberland Advisors - Take a Deep Breath Philippa Dunne and Doug Henwood provide a terrific daily research service, TLR Analytics, that focuses mostly on the component details of the American labor force. They report high-frequency information and offer dissection of details. In times like the present, these “nuggets” are helpful for investment decisions and for economic impact assessment. I read their work [Continued…]

 

The UK Economy Falls Off the Cliff; Brexit Negotiations Resume

Author: William Witherell, Ph.D., Post Date: April 24, 2020

Market Commentary - Cumberland Advisors - The UK Economy Falls Off the Cliff; Brexit Negotiations Resume

The economic situation in the UK has worsened dramatically in just the month and a half since our March 4th commentary on the subject. Last week, the Bank of England’s (BOE) governor, Andrew Bailey, told journalists that he did not disagree with the Office for Budget Responsibility’s forecast of a 35% decline in the UK’s [Continued…]

McConnell as Meredith Whitney

Author: John R. Mousseau, CFA, Post Date: April 23, 2020

Market Commentary - Cumberland Advisors -McConnell as Meredith Whitney (Mousseau)

Senate Majority Leader McConnell yesterday was reported by Bloomberg News as saying that he “would certainly be in favor of allowing states to use the bankruptcy route” rather than giving them a Federal bailout. This reminded us of 2010 when Meredith Whitney, a noted bank analyst, predicted that there would be hundreds of billions of [Continued…]

About Masks – (Plus a personal note)

Author: David R. Kotok, Post Date: April 22, 2020

David Kotok - About Masks

Straight Talk on Masks from Anthony Fauci – In a widely shared YouTube interview with Lilly Singh, Anthony Fauci, head of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases (NIAID) and a member of the White House coronavirus task force, explained the rationale for wearing face masks. He also explained why the CDC didn’t initially suggest [Continued…]

COVID – 19: Health Recovery and Economic Recovery Go Hand in Hand

Author: Peter A. Gold, Esquire & Jeffrey P. Gold, MD, Post Date: April 20, 2020

COVID - 19: Health Recovery and Economic Recovery Go Hand in HandThere is a lot of competing information in circulation relating to the current coronavirus pandemic and there is now a rush to offer opinion on how to best reopen economies and communities in a safe manner. It is our honor and privilege to introduce you to the following authors who also happen to be brothers. [Continued…]


Bloomberg Radio Interview: David Kotok on Fed News

April 29, 2020 – Running time 08:03

David Kotok, Chairman & Chief Investment Officer at Cumberland Advisors, discusses the latest Fed news with Doug Krizner and Juliette Saly on Bloomberg Daybreak Asia.

LISTEN HERE: https://www.bloomberg.com/news/audio/2020-04-30/david-kotok-on-fed-news-radio?sref=XreMbXAF

 

 


Links to other websites or electronic media controlled or offered by Third-Parties (non-affiliates of Cumberland Advisors) are provided only as a reference and courtesy to our users. Cumberland Advisors has no control over such websites, does not recommend or endorse any opinions, ideas, products, information, or content of such sites, and makes no warranties as to the accuracy, completeness, reliability or suitability of their content. Cumberland Advisors hereby disclaims liability for any information, materials, products or services posted or offered at any of the Third-Party websites. The Third-Party may have a privacy and/or security policy different from that of Cumberland Advisors. Therefore, please refer to the specific privacy and security policies of the Third-Party when accessing their websites.

Sign up for our FREE Cumberland Market Commentaries

Cumberland Advisors Market Commentaries offer insights and analysis on upcoming, important economic issues that potentially impact global financial markets. Our team shares their thinking on global economic developments, market news and other factors that often influence investment opportunities and strategies.

Posted on: 05/02/2020 arrow Watch Video arrow
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Cumberland Advisors® is registered with the SEC under the Investment Advisers Act of 1940. All information contained herein is for informational purposes only and does not constitute a solicitation or offer to sell securities or investment advisory services. Such an offer can only be made in the states where Cumberland Advisors is either registered or is a Notice Filer or where an exemption from such registration or filing is available. New accounts will not be accepted unless and until all local regulations have been satisfied. This presentation does not purport to be a complete description of our performance or investment services. Please feel free to forward our commentaries (with proper attribution) to others who may be interested. It is not our intention to state or imply in any manner that past results and profitability is an indication of future performance. All material presented is compiled from sources believed to be reliable. However, accuracy cannot be guaranteed.
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