TV Appearances

Cumberland-Advisors-David-Kotok-Market-Notes-China

Kotok – 8 Minutes on China-US & Markets

Cumberland Advisors’ David R. Kotok notes there is some positive movement toward normalization on the diplomacy and trade front between the United States and China. He touches on supply chains, COVID-19, how our political systems differ, and how our generations of millennials are positioned for the future.

Posted on: 08/20/2020 arrow Watch Video arrow
Cumberland-Advisors-Market-Update-20200814

Cumberland Advisors Week in Review (Aug 10, 2020 – Aug 14, 2020)

The Cumberland Advisors Week in Review is a recap of news, commentary, and opinion from our team.

Week In Review

These are not revised assessments, and circumstances may have changed in the market from the time of original publication. We also include older commentaries that our editors have determined may be of interest to our audience. Your feedback is always welcome.

CUMBERLAND ADVISORS’ WEEKLY RECAP

As part of Cumberland Advisors’ continuous effort to maintain strong customer relationships, we offer this week’s short video discussing current market conditions and how we are positioning portfolios.

Dear Clients & Friends,

Thank you for joining Cumberland Advisors for this end-of-week update on market conditions, bonds & equities with Matt McAleer and John Mousseau, CFA.

This week:

Matt McAleer on ETFs & Equities

-Continued bid into the heavies (industrials, transports, etc)
-A slow reallocation from some of the hotter sectors
-Quiet week trading
-Clients in our strategies have seen over the last number of weeks new purchases in industrials, basic materials, & banks
-Important to barbell growth allocation in case growth stalls

John Mousseau’s Update on the Fixed Income Market

-Yields higher this week
-Now in the world where long tax-free high grade bonds are less than Treasury bonds
-The world has gotten back to normal -The world is getting “less bad”
-Inflation higher – we’re off the mat – signs point to higher inflation down the road
-We’re taking some profits and playing defense, but not all in once
-Looking forward to hopefully good number next week

Please reach out with any questions/comments you may have about this update; we appreciate your calls, comments, and emails. Watch in the player above or at this link: https://youtu.be/NSQ4xtkd4RI

Stay safe, healthy, and have a great weekend.

-Matt McAleer & Cumberland Advisors

Matt enjoys your feedback. You can reach him at:
-Link to Matt’s Email: Matthew.McAleer@Cumber.com
-Link to Matt’s Twitter: https://twitter.com/MattMcAleer4
-Link to Matt’s LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/matthew-c-mcaleer/
-Call Matt: (800) 257-7013

Other questions or comments? Email us at info@cumber.com or give us a call at (800) 257-7013.

Contact Matt or any one of our advisors by following this link: https://www.cumber.com/our-people/


IN THE NEWS

Cumberland Advisors In The News

Inflation TIPS: Living On The Hedge

Quoted: John R. Mousseau, CFA | Posted on: 08/15/2020 read more

WaPo – In a bleak economy, these companies are flourishing

Quoted: David R. Kotok | Posted on: 08/15/2020 read more

Camp Kotok: Maine Woods, Economists & Wine

Quoted: David R. Kotok | Posted on: 08/08/2020 read more

Highlands News Sun – COVID-19: Florida vs. Taiwan

Quoted: David R. Kotok | Posted on: 08/08/2020 read more

Barron’s – July Jobs Report: Better Than Expected, Better Than Feared

Quoted: William Witherell, Ph.D. | Posted on: 08/07/2020 read more

The U.S. election is getting ugly – and investors are getting nervous

Quoted: David R. Kotok | Posted on: 07/31/2020 read more

TREASURIES-Yields fall ahead of TIPS auction

Quoted: John R. Mousseau, CFA | Posted on: 07/23/2020 read more

BondBuyer – Confidence high among muni investors

Quoted: John R. Mousseau, CFA | Posted on: 07/16/2020 read more


Cumberland Advisors Market Commentary

Cumberland Advisors Market Commentary offers insights and analysis on upcoming, important economic issues that potentially impact global financial markets. Our team shares their thinking on global economic developments, market news and other factors that often influence investment opportunities and strategies. Our readers appreciate its timeliness, depth of analysis, and quality of research.

To read current and past commentaries, visit https://www.cumber.com/category/market-commentary/


Zika & COVID-19: We Need Action Now!

Author: David R. Kotok, Post Date: August 14, 2020
Market Commentary - Cumberland Advisors - Zika & COVID-19- We Need Action Now Dear Readers: This is an appeal to Democrats, Republicans, and Independents, House Members and Senators, and including those on the far right and on the far left of American politics. The nation needs you to set aside the partisan politics. Students, their teachers, businesses, investors, the retired, the unemployed, the charities, state and local governments, […]


Interest Rates and Yield Curve Control, Part 2

Author: , Post Date: August 13, 2020
Market Commentary - Cumberland Advisors - Interest Rates and Yield Curve Control, Part 2 This is part 2 in a series on interest rates and yield curve controls. Here’s the link to part 1: https://www.cumber.com/cumberland-advisors-market-commentary-interest-rates-and-yield-curve-control-part-1/ First, we want to thank BCA Research and our friend Caroline Miller, Chief Strategist at BCA, for permission to share their charts. At Cumberland, we use BCA Research. My colleague John Mousseau and I […]


A Quick Look at Job Creation

Author: Robert Eisenbeis, Ph.D., Post Date: August 11, 2020
Market Commentary - Cumberland Advisors - A Quick Look at Job Creation (Eisenbeis) Each month, the BLS produces a wealth of data from both its household survey and its establishment survey. The latter, in particular, gives us a view of where jobs are actually being created during this terrible pandemic. Normally, the data widely cited from these surveys are seasonally adjusted, but for our purposes we will look […]


Managing Hurricane Risk in a Bond Portfolio

Author: John R. Mousseau, CFA & Patricia Healy, CFA, Post Date: August 10, 2020
Market Commentary - Cumberland Advisors - Managing Hurricane Risk in a Bond Portfolio The Northeast continues to clean up from Hurricane Isaias, which swept up the Atlantic coast to New York and parts of New England on Thursday. Below is a slide from a presentation by our good friend Tom Doe, who heads up Municipal Market Advisors (http://www.mma-research.com). Tom’s firm does in-depth quantitative and qualitative research on the […]


Interest Rates and Yield Curve Control, Part 1

Author: David R. Kotok, Post Date:
Market Commentary - Cumberland Advisors - Interest Rates and Yield Curve Control, Part 1 “The Trimmed Mean PCE inflation rate is an alternative measure of core inflation in the price index for personal consumption expenditures (PCE). It is calculated by staff at the Dallas Fed, using data from the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA).” Through June 2020, “The Trimmed Mean PCE inflation rate over the 12 months ending in […]


Paulding County, Georgia

Author: David R. Kotok, Post Date: August 9, 2020
Paulding County, Georgia (Kotok) “All politics is local,” Tip O’Neill famously observed. (In fact, this former Speaker of the House wrote a book by that title.) As the next chapter of COVID-19 and election-year politics take us closer to the November deadline, we believe that the school-opening issue is a new major influence. Scenario 1: Schools are opened with minimal […]


Credit Spreads

Author: David R. Kotok, Post Date: August 6, 2020

Cumberland Advisors - Credit Spreads We track many spreads at Cumberland and circulate a key summary of them every morning. For this public commentary I extracted the ones you see below (the last 7 items are the key ones to examine) because they help tell the story of how the Fed’s activities have decreased risk pricing in the financial markets. […]


Why Investors Are Looking at Taiwan

Author: William Witherell, Ph.D., Post Date: August 5, 2020

Market Commentary - Cumberland Advisors - Why Investors Are Looking at Taiwan Consider a place that has had only 476 Covid-19 cases and just 7 deaths. This sounds like a rural town in the US with a small population and good access to medical care. Actually, it is Taiwan, a small country in Asia with a very dense population of 23.6 million people, situated about 100 miles […]


Florida vs. Taiwan

Author: David R. Kotok, Post Date: August 4, 2020

Market Commentary - Cumberland Advisors - Florida vs. Taiwan “The first time it’s a novelty. The second time, people know what they’re in for and are less willing to take another hit. The virus is exposing socioeconomic fault lines: it’s harder to stay home with a head cold if you work casual shifts for minimum wage and can’t afford to miss a few days.” […]


Some Thoughts for a Sunday Morning

Author: David R. Kotok, Post Date: August 2, 2020

Some Thoughts for a Sunday Morning Some Thoughts for a Sunday Morning #1 – Two quotes from Tocqueville: “Liberty cannot be established without morality, nor morality without faith” (Democracy in America, http://libertytree.ca/quotes/Alexis.de.Tocqueville.Quote.8AF2). “The greatness of America lies not in being more enlightened than any other nation, but rather in her ability to repair her faults” (Democracy in America,  https://en.wikiquote.org/wiki/Alexis_de_Tocqueville). #2 – […]


Markets, Election, Axios Poll

Author: David R. Kotok, Post Date: July 31, 2020

Cumberland Advisors Market Commentary For the next 100 days or so, the growing focus on the US election may drive news flows and alter markets. Remember, though, there is a chasm between what polls are saying now and what markets are pricing as expectations for tomorrow. Most market agents are looking at 2021 and are now focused on a […]


US Stock Market Sectors & Gainesville, Florida

Author: David R. Kotok, Post Date: July 29, 2020

Market Commentary - Cumberland Advisors - US Stock Market Sectors & Gainesville Florida We were about to publish this commentary on the American stock market sectors when a news item about the healthcare sector crossed our screen. So we have decided to lead with it and then go to the stock market. Here is a fresh report about behavior and its consequences at a medical school in Gainesville, […]


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Judith Monroe from CDC Foundation & David Kotok explore Zika & other initiatives of CDC


Links to other websites or electronic media controlled or offered by Third-Parties (non-affiliates of Cumberland Advisors) are provided only as a reference and courtesy to our users. Cumberland Advisors has no control over such websites, does not recommend or endorse any opinions, ideas, products, information, or content of such sites, and makes no warranties as to the accuracy, completeness, reliability or suitability of their content. Cumberland Advisors hereby disclaims liability for any information, materials, products or services posted or offered at any of the Third-Party websites. The Third-Party may have a privacy and/or security policy different from that of Cumberland Advisors. Therefore, please refer to the specific privacy and security policies of the Third-Party when accessing their websites.

Sign up for our FREE Cumberland Market Commentaries

Cumberland Advisors Market Commentaries offer insights and analysis on upcoming, important economic issues that potentially impact global financial markets. Our team shares their thinking on global economic developments, market news and other factors that often influence investment opportunities and strategies.

Posted on: 08/15/2020 arrow Watch Video arrow
Cumberland-Advisors-Market-Update-20200807

Cumberland Advisors Week in Review (Aug 03, 2020 – Aug 07, 2020)

The Cumberland Advisors Week in Review is a recap of news, commentary, and opinion from our team.

Week In Review

These are not revised assessments, and circumstances may have changed in the market from the time of original publication. We also include older commentaries that our editors have determined may be of interest to our audience. Your feedback is always welcome.

CUMBERLAND ADVISORS’ WEEKLY RECAP

As part of Cumberland Advisors’ continuous effort to maintain strong customer relationships, we offer this week’s short video discussing current market conditions and how we are positioning portfolios.

Dear Clients & Friends,

Thank you for joining Cumberland Advisors for this end-of-week update on market conditions, bonds & equities with Matt McAleer and John Mousseau, CFA.

This week:

Matt McAleer on ETFs & Equities

-The Market action is broadening
-Seeing a bid to previously beaten down value names
-Massive cash on the side moving in
-Are these catch up trades?
-Are we seeing a rotation out of growth names?
-For weeks we’ve seen a steady bid to value
-As long as money is looking for new homes, the market should retain a bid
-There will still be pullbacks
-We’re seeing big upgrades in earnings estimates
-We’re seeing a little frothy sentiment coming from the institutional crowd
-Massive Fed Liquidity has to find a home somewhere and we’re watching it

 

John Mousseau’s Update on the Fixed Income Market

-T-Yields basically where they were last Friday
-Jobs numbers today were good, payrolls higher, unemployment lower
-The pace of jobs is slowing, something to keep an eye on
-Next week, CPI & PPI will be watched
-Fed less concerned about inflation, willing to tolerate it to offset periods of low inflation
-As we move forward, we expect to see hope for a vaccine to help move markets
-We expect robust muni demand
-The possibility of a Biden victory means high muni demand,
-Munis have higher value if tax rates go up

Please reach out with any questions/comments you may have about this update; we appreciate your calls, comments, and emails. Watch in the player above or at this link: https://youtu.be/Tmpupfrwnfg

 

Stay safe, healthy, and have a great weekend.

-Matt McAleer & Cumberland Advisors

Matt enjoys your feedback. You can reach him at:
-Link to Matt’s Email: Matthew.McAleer@Cumber.com
-Link to Matt’s Twitter: https://twitter.com/MattMcAleer4
-Link to Matt’s LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/matthew-c-mcaleer/
-Call Matt: (800) 257-7013

Other questions or comments? Email us at info@cumber.com or give us a call at (800) 257-7013.

Contact Matt or any one of our advisors by following this link: https://www.cumber.com/our-people/


IN THE NEWS

Cumberland Advisors In The News

Camp Kotok: Maine Woods, Economists & Wine

Quoted: David R. Kotok | Posted on: 08/08/2020 read more

Highlands News Sun – COVID-19: Florida vs. Taiwan

Quoted: David R. Kotok | Posted on: 08/08/2020 read more

Barron’s – July Jobs Report: Better Than Expected, Better Than Feared

Quoted: William Witherell, Ph.D. | Posted on: 08/07/2020 read more

The U.S. election is getting ugly – and investors are getting nervous

Quoted: David R. Kotok | Posted on: 07/31/2020 read more

TREASURIES-Yields fall ahead of TIPS auction

Quoted: John R. Mousseau, CFA | Posted on: 07/23/2020 read more

BondBuyer – Confidence high among muni investors

 

Quoted: John R. Mousseau, CFA | Posted on: 07/16/2020 read more


Cumberland Advisors Market Commentary

Cumberland Advisors Market Commentary offers insights and analysis on upcoming, important economic issues that potentially impact global financial markets. Our team shares their thinking on global economic developments, market news and other factors that often influence investment opportunities and strategies. Our readers appreciate its timeliness, depth of analysis, and quality of research.

To read current and past commentaries, visit https://www.cumber.com/category/market-commentary/


Credit Spreads

Author: David R. Kotok, Post Date: August 6, 2020

Cumberland Advisors - Credit Spreads We track many spreads at Cumberland and circulate a key summary of them every morning. For this public commentary I extracted the ones you see below (the last 7 items are the key ones to examine) because they help tell the story of how the Fed’s activities have decreased risk pricing in the financial markets. […]


Why Investors Are Looking at Taiwan

Author: William Witherell, Ph.D., Post Date: August 5, 2020

Market Commentary - Cumberland Advisors - Why Investors Are Looking at Taiwan Consider a place that has had only 476 Covid-19 cases and just 7 deaths. This sounds like a rural town in the US with a small population and good access to medical care. Actually, it is Taiwan, a small country in Asia with a very dense population of 23.6 million people, situated about 100 miles […]


Florida vs. Taiwan

Author: David R. Kotok, Post Date: August 4, 2020

Market Commentary - Cumberland Advisors - Florida vs. Taiwan “The first time it’s a novelty. The second time, people know what they’re in for and are less willing to take another hit. The virus is exposing socioeconomic fault lines: it’s harder to stay home with a head cold if you work casual shifts for minimum wage and can’t afford to miss a few days.” […]


Some Thoughts for a Sunday Morning

Author: David R. Kotok, Post Date: August 2, 2020

Some Thoughts for a Sunday Morning Some Thoughts for a Sunday Morning #1 – Two quotes from Tocqueville: “Liberty cannot be established without morality, nor morality without faith” (Democracy in America, http://libertytree.ca/quotes/Alexis.de.Tocqueville.Quote.8AF2). “The greatness of America lies not in being more enlightened than any other nation, but rather in her ability to repair her faults” (Democracy in America,  https://en.wikiquote.org/wiki/Alexis_de_Tocqueville). #2 – […]


Markets, Election, Axios Poll

Author: David R. Kotok, Post Date: July 31, 2020

Cumberland Advisors Market Commentary For the next 100 days or so, the growing focus on the US election may drive news flows and alter markets. Remember, though, there is a chasm between what polls are saying now and what markets are pricing as expectations for tomorrow. Most market agents are looking at 2021 and are now focused on a […]


US Stock Market Sectors & Gainesville, Florida

Author: David R. Kotok, Post Date: July 29, 2020

Market Commentary - Cumberland Advisors - US Stock Market Sectors & Gainesville Florida We were about to publish this commentary on the American stock market sectors when a news item about the healthcare sector crossed our screen. So we have decided to lead with it and then go to the stock market. Here is a fresh report about behavior and its consequences at a medical school in Gainesville, […]


A Modest Proposal

Author: Robert Eisenbeis, Ph.D., Post Date: July 28, 2020

Market Commentary - Cumberland Advisors - A Modest Proposal “In practice, the Fed has never adopted operating procedures designed to control reserves in order to use the money multiplier relationship to control deposits.” (Goodfriend and Hargraves, “A Historical Assessment of the Rationales and Functions of Reserve Requirements,” Source: https://www.richmondfed.org) In response to the pandemic crisis, the Federal Reserve has cut the federal funds rate […]


Update on Fed Repo and Reverse Repo Facility

Author: Robert Eisenbeis, Ph.D., Post Date: July 27, 2020

Market Commentary - Cumberland Advisors - Update on Fed Repo and Reverse Repo Facility Details on offerings and takedowns are interesting and provide clues as to the state of liquidity, even given the large volume of Treasuries coming to market.


Rebekah Jones

Author: David R. Kotok, Post Date: July 26, 2020

Market Commentary - Cumberland Advisors - A Duel Over Data (Or, Three Cheers for Rebekah Jones) A Duel Over Data (Or, Three Cheers for Rebekah Jones) On April 20, 2020, Dr. Deborah Birx, response coordinator for the White House Coronavirus Task Force, praised the Florida Department of Health website for its useful detail: “The Florida Department of Health’s website is extraordinary, and this is what every department of health should have…. […]


In its 30th year, the Frank G. Berlin Sr. Foundation Small Business Awards recognizes member businesses with locally owned and operated businesses. Cumberland Advisors was recognized last year as the “Professional Services Business of the year” for 2019 and we wish the 2020 finalists continued success and luck for this year’s selection. The Sarasota Chamber will conduct the event virtually on August 28th from 12 p.m. to 1 p.m. Details here: https://www.sarasotachamber.com/2020-virtual-sba.html

The Greater Sarasota Chamber of Commerce - SBA 2019 - Winner- Professional Services Category

July 3, 2019 – Sarasota, Florida – On Friday, June 14, 2019, business and community leaders gathered for the 29th Frank G. Berlin, Sr. Small Business Awards, presented by the Herald Tribune Media Group. Three finalists were selected across five categories: Hospitality and Tourism, Non-Profit, Products and Services, Retail and Professional Services. We are honored to share that Cumberland Advisors was selected as the winner within the Professional Services category. ”

Press Release: https://www.tampabaynewswire.com/2019/07/03/cumberland-advisors-receives-sarasota-chamber-of-commerce-small-business-award-within-the-professional-services-category-78721


Links to other websites or electronic media controlled or offered by Third-Parties (non-affiliates of Cumberland Advisors) are provided only as a reference and courtesy to our users. Cumberland Advisors has no control over such websites, does not recommend or endorse any opinions, ideas, products, information, or content of such sites, and makes no warranties as to the accuracy, completeness, reliability or suitability of their content. Cumberland Advisors hereby disclaims liability for any information, materials, products or services posted or offered at any of the Third-Party websites. The Third-Party may have a privacy and/or security policy different from that of Cumberland Advisors. Therefore, please refer to the specific privacy and security policies of the Third-Party when accessing their websites.

Sign up for our FREE Cumberland Market Commentaries

Cumberland Advisors Market Commentaries offer insights and analysis on upcoming, important economic issues that potentially impact global financial markets. Our team shares their thinking on global economic developments, market news and other factors that often influence investment opportunities and strategies.

Posted on: 08/08/2020 arrow Watch Video arrow
Cumberland-Advisors-Market-Update-20200731

Cumberland Advisors Week in Review (Jul 27, 2020 – Jul 31, 2020)

The Cumberland Advisors Week in Review is a recap of news, commentary, and opinion from our team.

Week In Review

These are not revised assessments, and circumstances may have changed in the market from the time of original publication. We also include older commentaries that our editors have determined may be of interest to our audience. Your feedback is always welcome.

CUMBERLAND ADVISORS’ WEEKLY RECAP

As part of Cumberland Advisors’ continuous effort to maintain strong customer relationships, we offer this week’s short video discussing current market conditions and how we are positioning portfolios.

Dear Clients & Friends,

Thank you for joining Cumberland Advisors for this end-of-week update on market conditions, bonds & equities with Matt McAleer and John Mousseau, CFA.

This week:

Matt McAleer on ETFs & Equities

– Matt has some charts this week
– He first takes us through Domestic Sectors
– Next, he offers insight for the International Markets

John Mousseau’s Update on the Fixed Income Market
– John give us various rates for a big picture view of muniland
– He also discusses government relief for industries and local/state governments

Please reach out with any questions/comments you may have about this update; we appreciate your calls, comments, and emails. Watch in the player above or at this link: https://youtu.be/L0ahbGPDjZE

 

Stay safe, healthy, and have a great weekend.

-Matt McAleer & Cumberland Advisors

Matt enjoys your feedback. You can reach him at:
-Link to Matt’s Email: Matthew.McAleer@Cumber.com
-Link to Matt’s Twitter: https://twitter.com/MattMcAleer4
-Link to Matt’s LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/matthew-c-mcaleer/
-Call Matt: (800) 257-7013

Other questions or comments? Email us at info@cumber.com or give us a call at (800) 257-7013.

Contact Matt or any one of our advisors by following this link: https://www.cumber.com/our-people/


IN THE NEWS

Cumberland Advisors In The News


Cumberland Advisors Market Commentary

Cumberland Advisors Market Commentary offers insights and analysis on upcoming, important economic issues that potentially impact global financial markets. Our team shares their thinking on global economic developments, market news and other factors that often influence investment opportunities and strategies. Our readers appreciate its timeliness, depth of analysis, and quality of research.

To read current and past commentaries, visit https://www.cumber.com/category/market-commentary/


Markets, Election, Axios Poll

Author: David R. Kotok, Post Date: July 31, 2020

Cumberland Advisors Market Commentary For the next 100 days or so, the growing focus on the US election may drive news flows and alter markets. Remember, though, there is a chasm between what polls are saying now and what markets are pricing as expectations for tomorrow. Most market agents are looking at 2021 and are now focused on a […]


US Stock Market Sectors & Gainesville, Florida

Author: David R. Kotok, Post Date: July 29, 2020

Market Commentary - Cumberland Advisors - US Stock Market Sectors & Gainesville Florida We were about to publish this commentary on the American stock market sectors when a news item about the healthcare sector crossed our screen. So we have decided to lead with it and then go to the stock market. Here is a fresh report about behavior and its consequences at a medical school in Gainesville, […]


A Modest Proposal

Author: Robert Eisenbeis, Ph.D., Post Date: July 28, 2020

Market Commentary - Cumberland Advisors - A Modest Proposal “In practice, the Fed has never adopted operating procedures designed to control reserves in order to use the money multiplier relationship to control deposits.” (Goodfriend and Hargraves, “A Historical Assessment of the Rationales and Functions of Reserve Requirements,” Source: https://www.richmondfed.org) In response to the pandemic crisis, the Federal Reserve has cut the federal funds rate […]


Update on Fed Repo and Reverse Repo Facility

Author: Robert Eisenbeis, Ph.D., Post Date: July 27, 2020

Market Commentary - Cumberland Advisors - Update on Fed Repo and Reverse Repo Facility Details on offerings and takedowns are interesting and provide clues as to the state of liquidity, even given the large volume of Treasuries coming to market.


Rebekah Jones

Author: David R. Kotok, Post Date: July 26, 2020

Market Commentary - Cumberland Advisors - A Duel Over Data (Or, Three Cheers for Rebekah Jones) A Duel Over Data (Or, Three Cheers for Rebekah Jones) On April 20, 2020, Dr. Deborah Birx, response coordinator for the White House Coronavirus Task Force, praised the Florida Department of Health website for its useful detail: “The Florida Department of Health’s website is extraordinary, and this is what every department of health should have…. […]


Inflation coming? Maybe, maybe not?

Author: David R. Kotok, Post Date: July 23, 2020

Market Commentary - Cumberland Advisors - Inflation coming Maybe, maybe not There are many prescriptions and forecast models for a coming inflation or the lack of it. They range widely. Some forecasts include deflation. Inflation adjusted bonds (like TIPS) are currently priced for very low inflation. Nominal bond markets are saying that little to no inflation is expected. That is why high grade bonds are pricing […]


The Fed & Nonprofits

Author: David R. Kotok, Post Date: July 21, 2020

Market Commentary - Cumberland Advisors - The Fed & Nonprofits The extraordinary and massive COVID-19 economic shock has triggered another first-time action by our nation’s central bank. The Fed now has expanded a facility directed at lending to nonprofits. Among those nonprofits targeted are “educational institutions, hospitals, and social service organizations.” Here’s the link to the July 17 press release announcing the modification of the […]


Chinese Economy: Global Locomotive but Significant Risks

Author: William Witherell, Ph.D., Post Date: July 20, 2020

Market Commentary - Cumberland Advisors - Chinese Economy Global Locomotive but Significant Risks China’s economy, the second largest in the world after that of the United States, is recovering from a sharp slowdown in the first quarter of the year. The first estimate of the annualized second-quarter GDP growth rate is +3.2% versus 2.4% expected, a strong reversal from -6.8% in the first quarter. The advance indicates that […]


The Room Where It Happened Responses

Author: David R. Kotok, Post Date: July 19, 2020

Market Commentary - Cumberland Advisors - The Room Where It Happened Last Sunday morning we offered readers “The Room Where It Happened” (https://www.cumber.com/cumberland-advisors-market-commentary-the-room-where-it-happened/). We thank many readers for their kind replies. Here are just a few. Harvey wrote: “All I can say is, patience is a virtue, along with not wanting to spend hundreds to see a play, no matter how well done, when we knew […]


Links to other websites or electronic media controlled or offered by Third-Parties (non-affiliates of Cumberland Advisors) are provided only as a reference and courtesy to our users. Cumberland Advisors has no control over such websites, does not recommend or endorse any opinions, ideas, products, information, or content of such sites, and makes no warranties as to the accuracy, completeness, reliability or suitability of their content. Cumberland Advisors hereby disclaims liability for any information, materials, products or services posted or offered at any of the Third-Party websites. The Third-Party may have a privacy and/or security policy different from that of Cumberland Advisors. Therefore, please refer to the specific privacy and security policies of the Third-Party when accessing their websites.

Sign up for our FREE Cumberland Market Commentaries

Cumberland Advisors Market Commentaries offer insights and analysis on upcoming, important economic issues that potentially impact global financial markets. Our team shares their thinking on global economic developments, market news and other factors that often influence investment opportunities and strategies.

Posted on: 08/01/2020 arrow Watch Video arrow
Cumberland-Advisors-Market-Update

Cumberland Advisors Week in Review (Jul 20, 2020 – Jul 24, 2020)

This week we’re all practicing some extra social distancing and working from home. Our video production quality isn’t top tier, however we still want to get our market updates out to you.

John Mousseau’s Update on the Fixed Income Market
– Lower Treasury Yields
– Why? Concern over spread of virus in the southern states.
– Good news: vaccines are hopeful giving a boost to markets
– Muni Yields are down a little this week
– Good subscription on new deals
– Looking to see what congress will pass in next phase of coronavirus relief

Matt McAleer on ETFs & Equities

– Continued recent rotation into value vs. growth as well as a bit of demand for small/mid-cap.

– Pull back late in week is welcome to create opportunities as tech & healthcare had become crowded.

– Pullbacks let traders observe which securities are showing superior relative strength.

David Kotok on the Virus and Markets
– Tensions with China are affecting markets
– Where will China relations be next year?
– An uncertainty premium is rising in markets
– This may present a great investment opportunity, we’ll be watching things closely

Please reach out with any questions/comments you may have about this update; we appreciate your calls, comments, and emails. Watch in the player above or at this link: https://youtu.be/8Mo9CdoxVNA

Stay safe, healthy, and have a great weekend.

-Matt McAleer & Cumberland Advisors

Matt enjoys your feedback. You can reach him at:
-Link to Matt’s Email: Matthew.McAleer@Cumber.com
-Link to Matt’s Twitter: https://twitter.com/MattMcAleer4
-Link to Matt’s LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/matthew-c-mcaleer/
-Call Matt: (800) 257-7013

Other questions or comments? Email us at info@cumber.com or give us a call at (800) 257-7013.

Posted on: 07/25/2020 arrow Watch Video arrow
Cumberland-Advisors-Market-Update-20200717

Cumberland Advisors Week in Review (Jul 13, 2020 – Jul 17, 2020)

The Cumberland Advisors Week in Review is a recap of news, commentary, and opinion from our team.

Week In Review

These are not revised assessments, and circumstances may have changed in the market from the time of original publication. We also include older commentaries that our editors have determined may be of interest to our audience. Your feedback is always welcome.

CUMBERLAND ADVISORS’ WEEKLY RECAP

As part of Cumberland Advisors’ continuous effort to maintain strong customer relationships, we offer this week’s short video discussing current market conditions and how we are positioning portfolios.

Dear Clients & Friends,

Thank you for joining Cumberland Advisors for this end-of-week update on market conditions, bonds & equities with Matt McAleer, David Kotok, and John Mousseau, CFA.

This week:

Matt McAleer on ETFs & Equities

– Biotech & Pharma strong- solid week
– Basic Materials continues to rally
– Large cap growth mild pullback vs. value- we have seen this action before and it was short-lived…..Banks are key to value staying relevant as they produced a mixed bag of earnings this week.

 

John Mousseau’s Update on the Fixed Income Market
– A quiet summer-like week in the bond market
– Deals that came this week were fairly well subscribed
– The deals that get the most subscriptions now are the smaller deals that tend to come cheaper and they still can get 5, 6, 7 times oversubscribed
– As we move forward, we expect to see more deals to come to market
– We think issuers will come to market with some higher yields as the year moves forward
– New Jersey announced this week that they seek to raise $10B, New York seeks $11B through shorter and longer term deals. There will be some give on the deals based upon their size.
– We’re probably going to see this in other states as a result of coronavirus relapses and the negative effects on commerce
– Things to watch next week:
* We’ll be on the lookout for initial and continuing jobless claims
* Congress is still debating over new stimulus on behalf of state and local governments

David Kotok on the Virus and Markets
– We need effective vaccines and treatments
– Until then, we need the truth

Please reach out with any questions/comments you may have about this update; we appreciate your calls, comments, and emails. Watch in the player above or at this link: https://youtu.be/3tJRuiQMKVU

Stay safe, healthy, and have a great weekend.

-Matt McAleer & Cumberland Advisors

Matt enjoys your feedback. You can reach him at:
-Link to Matt’s Email: Matthew.McAleer@Cumber.com
-Link to Matt’s Twitter: https://twitter.com/MattMcAleer4
-Link to Matt’s LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/matthew-c-mcaleer/
-Call Matt: (800) 257-7013

Other questions or comments? Email us at info@cumber.com or give us a call at (800) 257-7013.

Contact Matt or any one of our advisors by following this link: https://www.cumber.com/our-people/


IN THE NEWS

Cumberland Advisors In The News


Cumberland Advisors Market Commentary

Cumberland Advisors Market Commentary offers insights and analysis on upcoming, important economic issues that potentially impact global financial markets. Our team shares their thinking on global economic developments, market news and other factors that often influence investment opportunities and strategies. Our readers appreciate its timeliness, depth of analysis, and quality of research.

To read current and past commentaries, visit https://www.cumber.com/category/market-commentary/


John Mousseau’s Oxford Presentation: Bond Markets Through the Virus

Author: David R. Kotok, Post Date: July 16, 2020

Market Commentary - Cumberland Advisors - John Mousseau's Oxford Presentation Bond Markets Through the Virus

John Mousseau did a live (online) presentation with Oxford University on Monday June 29th about insights on the bond markets, the macroeconomic landscape, and his take on potential career choices for students interested in finance and investing. His presentation topic was: Bond Markets Through the Virus  Analysis of Treasury, Taxable and Municipal Markets Analysis of Fed […]


COVID-19-Aerosols, Retrofitting & Construction, Stock Market Materials Sector

Author: David R. Kotok, Post Date: July 14, 2020

Market Commentary - Cumberland Advisors - COVID-19-Aerosols, Retrofitting & Construction, Stock Market Materials Sector

You might have noticed that there has been quite a flap lately about the idea that COVID-19 may be transmitted through the air. But isn’t that old news? Haven’t we recognized from the outset that we needed to distance ourselves from one another to minimize airborne spread of the virus? Yes, but we were talking […]


The Room Where It Happened

Author: David R. Kotok, Post Date: July 12, 2020

Market Commentary - Cumberland Advisors - The Room Where It Happened

“The Room Where It Happened” is a popular theme these days. Not just the book (surprise, surprise!), but also the song. Let’s use this missive to talk about it. Now that the Disney Channel has made the $1000-per-ticket version of Hamilton available for those with a lesser budget ($6.99), this marvelously imaginative theatre creation belongs on the […]


More on Fed Liquidity and Lending Programs

Author: Robert Eisenbeis, Ph.D., Post Date: July 10, 2020

Market Commentary - Cumberland Advisors - More on Fed Liquidity and Lending Programs (Eisenbeis) The Federal Reserve continues to support financial markets, including the commercial paper market, the repo market, the municipal securities market, money market mutual funds, central bank liquidity swaps, and primary dealers. This is in addition to the usual discount window facility that provides credit to commercial banks. In many cases there are either published maximums […]


PAUL SCHULTE: Q & A, COVID, CHINA-US, AI, 5G, 2 BOOKS

Author: David R. Kotok, Post Date: July 9, 2020

Market Commentary - Cumberland Advisors - Paul Schulte Q&A, Covid, China-US, AI, 5G, 2 Books - Kotok

With honor and gratitude, we wish to introduce Paul Schulte, the founder of Singapore-based Schulte Research. His expertise in finance and technology are sought globally by serious investing institutions. We thank Paul for agreeing to answer a few questions in a Q&A.


COVID, BUSINESS, MEDIA, HEALTHCARE SECTOR

Author: David R. Kotok, Post Date: July 7, 2020

Forty-three percent of US COVID-19 deaths are linked to nursing homes. State figures range from a high of 80% in New Hampshire and 77% in Minnesota down to 27% in Nevada and 34% in Nebraska and Tennessee. See both “43% of U.S. Coronavirus Deaths Are Linked to Nursing Homes,” New York Times, June 27, 2020, […]


Links to other websites or electronic media controlled or offered by Third-Parties (non-affiliates of Cumberland Advisors) are provided only as a reference and courtesy to our users. Cumberland Advisors has no control over such websites, does not recommend or endorse any opinions, ideas, products, information, or content of such sites, and makes no warranties as to the accuracy, completeness, reliability or suitability of their content. Cumberland Advisors hereby disclaims liability for any information, materials, products or services posted or offered at any of the Third-Party websites. The Third-Party may have a privacy and/or security policy different from that of Cumberland Advisors. Therefore, please refer to the specific privacy and security policies of the Third-Party when accessing their websites.

Sign up for our FREE Cumberland Market Commentaries

Cumberland Advisors Market Commentaries offer insights and analysis on upcoming, important economic issues that potentially impact global financial markets. Our team shares their thinking on global economic developments, market news and other factors that often influence investment opportunities and strategies.

Posted on: 07/18/2020 arrow Watch Video arrow
Cumberland-Advisors-Market-Update-20200710

Cumberland Advisors Week in Review (Jul 05, 2020 – Jul 10, 2020)

The Cumberland Advisors Week in Review is a recap of news, commentary, and opinion from our team.

Week In Review

These are not revised assessments, and circumstances may have changed in the market from the time of original publication. We also include older commentaries that our editors have determined may be of interest to our audience. Your feedback is always welcome.

CUMBERLAND ADVISORS’ WEEKLY RECAP

As part of Cumberland Advisors’ continuous effort to maintain strong customer relationships, we offer this week’s short video discussing current market conditions and how we are positioning portfolios.

Dear Clients & Friends,

Thank you for joining Cumberland Advisors for this end-of-week update on market conditions, bonds & equities with Matt McAleer, and John Mousseau, CFA.

Matt McAleer on ETFs & Equities
This week we talk about:
-S&P rallies, corrections, and sectors
-Why we watch JP Morgan & P&C Banks
-We are long banks despite awful 4 week run
-Energy? Trouble figuring out their balance sheets
-Outlook for International
-When we get dogmatic of thinking, we’re normally going to find ourselves behind the trade
-Finally, there’s been an unusual “Moose” sighting in Rhode Island!
 
John Mousseau’s Update on the Fixed Income Market
-Treasury Yields lower
-Why? Fear of pandemic spreading further
-Key: normalcy to bond market will follow decrease in infection rate
-Plenty of demand for high grade quality tax-free bonds
-Very large bond deals on the calendar next week
-CPI numbers next week
-Possible inflation next year
Please reach out with any questions/comments you may have about this update; we appreciate your calls, comments, and emails. Watch in the player above or at this link: https://youtu.be/wx2bAV0Dmqs

 

-Matt McAleer

Matt enjoys your feedback. You can reach him at:
-Link to Matt’s Email: Matthew.McAleer@Cumber.com
-Link to Matt’s Twitter: https://twitter.com/MattMcAleer4
-Link to Matt’s LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/matthew-c-mcaleer/
-Call Matt: (800) 257-7013

Other questions or comments? Email us at info@cumber.com or give us a call at (800) 257-7013.

Contact Matt or any one of our advisors by following this link: https://www.cumber.com/our-people/


IN THE NEWS

Cumberland Advisors In The News


Cumberland Advisors Market Commentary

Cumberland Advisors Market Commentary offers insights and analysis on upcoming, important economic issues that potentially impact global financial markets. Our team shares their thinking on global economic developments, market news and other factors that often influence investment opportunities and strategies. Our readers appreciate its timeliness, depth of analysis, and quality of research.

To read current and past commentaries, visit https://www.cumber.com/category/market-commentary/


MORE ON FED LIQUIDITY AND LENDING PROGRAMS

Author: Robert Eisenbeis, Ph.D., Post Date: July 10, 2020

Market Commentary - Cumberland Advisors - More on Fed Liquidity and Lending Programs (Eisenbeis)

The Federal Reserve continues to support financial markets, including the commercial paper market, the repo market, the municipal securities market, money market mutual funds, central bank liquidity swaps, and primary dealers. This is in addition to the usual discount window facility that provides credit to commercial banks. In many cases there are either published maximums […]


PAUL SCHULTE: Q & A, COVID, CHINA-US, AI, 5G, 2 BOOKS

Author: David R. Kotok, Post Date: July 9, 2020

Market Commentary - Cumberland Advisors - Paul Schulte Q&A, Covid, China-US, AI, 5G, 2 Books - Kotok

With honor and gratitude, we wish to introduce Paul Schulte, the founder of Singapore-based Schulte Research. His expertise in finance and technology are sought globally by serious investing institutions. We thank Paul for agreeing to answer a few questions in a Q&A.


COVID, BUSINESS, MEDIA, HEALTHCARE SECTOR

Author: David R. Kotok, Post Date: July 7, 2020

Forty-three percent of US COVID-19 deaths are linked to nursing homes. State figures range from a high of 80% in New Hampshire and 77% in Minnesota down to 27% in Nevada and 34% in Nebraska and Tennessee. See both “43% of U.S. Coronavirus Deaths Are Linked to Nursing Homes,” New York Times, June 27, 2020, […]


THE FED’S CORPORATE CREDIT FACILITY

Author: Robert Eisenbeis, Ph.D., Post Date: July 6, 2020

On June 15, the Federal Reserve published revised terms and conditions for what it calls its Secondary Market Corporate Credit Facility, which is a special-purpose vehicle (SPV) created to purchase in the secondary market corporate debt that meets certain eligibility requirements. See https://www.newyorkfed.org/markets/secondary-market-corporate-credit-facility/secondary-market-corporate-credit-facility-terms-and-conditions. Included will be individual corporate bonds, certain exchange-traded funds (ETFs), and bond […]


America’s Birthday

Author: David R. Kotok, Post Date: July 4, 2020

Happy Birthday AmericaWe celebrate America’s birthdate on July 4. For the great document declaring our independence to become a new kind of nation, we say “thank you” to Thomas Jefferson, author, and Benjamin Franklin, editorial consultant. During a seminar years ago at the National Constitution Center in Philadelphia, I was fortunate enough to participate in a lengthy […]


COVID-19, Opening Up Business and Facing Facts

Author: David R. Kotok, Post Date: July 2, 2020

Market Commentary - Cumberland Advisors - COVID-19, Opening Up Business & Facing Facts

In January 1944, General Eisenhower’s headquarters sent a top secret message to the US military’s weather planning service. It said something like, “We need your long-range weather forecast for June 1–10, 1944, for the coastal regions of Normandy.” The weather service […]


The Muni Selloff That Was

Author: John R. Mousseau, CFA, Post Date: July 1, 2020

As we come to the end of the second quarter of 2020, the pandemic is still with us, with cases are rising in the South and the West in a resurgence of the virus, amid further issues involving social […]


 More on Politics and Markets

Author: David R. Kotok, Post Date: June 30, 2020

In this 2020 political year, the issues, including COVID-19 and the Black Lives Matter protests, have political forecasts about as complex and difficult as anyone can imagine. An intensely divided country only adds to the complexity. Current polling notwithstanding, we still […]


 A Fish Story

Author: David R. Kotok, Post Date: June 29, 2020

Market Commentary - Cumberland Advisors - A Fish Story

“That is the biggest one I’ve ever seen,” said Ray Sockabasin. I agreed. We had finally gotten the large fish into the net and were holding him next to the canoe but keeping him in the water. “I wonder what it weighs?” Ray’s scale […]


Links to other websites or electronic media controlled or offered by Third-Parties (non-affiliates of Cumberland Advisors) are provided only as a reference and courtesy to our users. Cumberland Advisors has no control over such websites, does not recommend or endorse any opinions, ideas, products, information, or content of such sites, and makes no warranties as to the accuracy, completeness, reliability or suitability of their content. Cumberland Advisors hereby disclaims liability for any information, materials, products or services posted or offered at any of the Third-Party websites. The Third-Party may have a privacy and/or security policy different from that of Cumberland Advisors. Therefore, please refer to the specific privacy and security policies of the Third-Party when accessing their websites.

Sign up for our FREE Cumberland Market Commentaries

Cumberland Advisors Market Commentaries offer insights and analysis on upcoming, important economic issues that potentially impact global financial markets. Our team shares their thinking on global economic developments, market news and other factors that often influence investment opportunities and strategies.

Posted on: 07/11/2020 arrow Watch Video arrow
Video Thumbnail 2020 07 02

Cumberland Advisors Week in Review (June 29, 2020 – July 02, 2020)

The Cumberland Advisors Week in Review is a recap of news, commentary, and opinion from our team.

Week In Review

These are not revised assessments, and circumstances may have changed in the market from the time of original publication. We also include older commentaries that our editors have determined may be of interest to our audience. Your feedback is always welcome.

CUMBERLAND ADVISORS’ WEEKLY RECAP

As part of Cumberland Advisors’ continuous effort to maintain strong customer relationships, we offer this week’s short video discussing current market conditions and how we are positioning portfolios.

Dear Clients & Friends,

Thank you for joining Cumberland Advisors for this end-of-week update on market conditions, bonds & equities with Matt McAleer, and John Moussea, CFA.

This week:
Matt McAleer on ETFs & Equities
This week: Matt McAleer on ETFs & Equities -Good bid all week in Health Care and Tech sectors -Our addition of Basic Materials to U.S. portfolios -Taking advantage of global monetary easing -Stay flexible and remain diligent
 
John Mousseau’s Update on the Fixed Income Market
-Keeping great job numbers in perspective -Bond market quiet this week -Muni yields have returned to February levels -See yields gradually rising into the end of the year as outlook improves
Keep in mind markets are closed on July 3rd.
Please reach out with any questions/comments you may have about this update; we appreciate your calls, comments, and emails. Watch in the player above or at this link: https://youtu.be/ltYkUt6a4bM

 

-Matt McAleer

Matt enjoys your feedback. You can reach him at:
-Link to Matt’s Email: Matthew.McAleer@Cumber.com
-Link to Matt’s Twitter: https://twitter.com/MattMcAleer4
-Link to Matt’s LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/matthew-c-mcaleer/
-Call Matt: (800) 257-7013

Other questions or comments? Email us at info@cumber.com or give us a call at (800) 257-7013.

Contact Matt or any one of our advisors by following this link: https://www.cumber.com/our-people/


Cumberland Advisors Market Commentary

Cumberland Advisors Market Commentary offers insights and analysis on upcoming, important economic issues that potentially impact global financial markets. Our team shares their thinking on global economic developments, market news and other factors that often influence investment opportunities and strategies. Our readers appreciate its timeliness, depth of analysis, and quality of research.

To read current and past commentaries, visit https://www.cumber.com/category/market-commentary/


America’s Birthday

Author: David R. Kotok, Post Date: July 4, 2020
Happy Birthday America We celebrate America’s birthdate on July 4. For the great document declaring our independence to become a new kind of nation, we say “thank you” to Thomas Jefferson, author, and Benjamin Franklin, editorial consultant. During a seminar years ago at the National Constitution Center in Philadelphia, I was fortunate enough to participate in a lengthy […]

COVID-19, Opening Up Business and Facing Facts

Author: David R. Kotok, Post Date: July 2, 2020

Market Commentary - Cumberland Advisors - COVID-19, Opening Up Business & Facing Facts

In January 1944, General Eisenhower’s headquarters sent a top secret message to the US military’s weather planning service. It said something like, “We need your long-range weather forecast for June 1–10, 1944, for the coastal regions of Normandy.” The weather service […]

The Muni Selloff That Was

Author: John R. Mousseau, CFA, Post Date: July 1, 2020

As we come to the end of the second quarter of 2020, the pandemic is still with us, with cases are rising in the South and the West in a resurgence of the virus, amid further issues involving social […]

 More on Politics and Markets

Author: David R. Kotok, Post Date: June 30, 2020

In this 2020 political year, the issues, including COVID-19 and the Black Lives Matter protests, have political forecasts about as complex and difficult as anyone can imagine. An intensely divided country only adds to the complexity. Current polling notwithstanding, we still […]

 A Fish Story

Author: David R. Kotok, Post Date: June 29, 2020

Market Commentary - Cumberland Advisors - A Fish Story

“That is the biggest one I’ve ever seen,” said Ray Sockabasin. I agreed. We had finally gotten the large fish into the net and were holding him next to the canoe but keeping him in the water. “I wonder what it weighs?” Ray’s scale […]

South Korea vs. Brazil: Smart Policies and Practices Save Lives

Author: William Witherell, Ph.D., Post Date: June 26, 2020

Bill Witherell, Ph.D. Chief Global Economist & Portfolio Manager Email | Bio There are sharp differences in the way countries have responded to the global pandemic caused by the COVID-19 virus. A comparison of the recent experiences of South Korea, widely recognized as having the best organized COVID-19 defense, and Brazil, a strong contender for [Continued…]


Forrest Gump Responses

Author: David R. Kotok, Post Date: June 25, 2020

We’ve been compiling responses to our commentary on Forrest Gump’s advice. For those who missed it, here’s the link: https://www.cumber.com/cumberland-advisors-commentary-forrest-gumps-advice/. Now some quotes from readers. Bruce wrote: “Thanks for your Forrest Gump moment. Your most revealing sentence in all of this missive is ‘people are now required to take full responsibility for their own personal […]


2020-07-03 Bloomberg Radio Interview with David R. Kotok

David Kotok on Volatile Markets (Radio)


Links to other websites or electronic media controlled or offered by Third-Parties (non-affiliates of Cumberland Advisors) are provided only as a reference and courtesy to our users. Cumberland Advisors has no control over such websites, does not recommend or endorse any opinions, ideas, products, information, or content of such sites, and makes no warranties as to the accuracy, completeness, reliability or suitability of their content. Cumberland Advisors hereby disclaims liability for any information, materials, products or services posted or offered at any of the Third-Party websites. The Third-Party may have a privacy and/or security policy different from that of Cumberland Advisors. Therefore, please refer to the specific privacy and security policies of the Third-Party when accessing their websites.

Sign up for our FREE Cumberland Market Commentaries

Cumberland Advisors Market Commentaries offer insights and analysis on upcoming, important economic issues that potentially impact global financial markets. Our team shares their thinking on global economic developments, market news and other factors that often influence investment opportunities and strategies.

Posted on: 07/04/2020 arrow Watch Video arrow
Cumberland Advisors Week In Review 2020-06-26

Cumberland Advisors Week in Review (Jun 22, 2020 – Jun 26, 2020)

The Cumberland Advisors Week in Review is a recap of news, commentary, and opinion from our team.

Week In Review

These are not revised assessments, and circumstances may have changed in the market from the time of original publication. We also include older commentaries that our editors have determined may be of interest to our audience. Your feedback is always welcome.

CUMBERLAND ADVISORS’ WEEKLY RECAP

As part of Cumberland Advisors’ continuous effort to maintain strong customer relationships, we offer this week’s short video discussing current market conditions and how we are positioning portfolios.

Dear Clients & Friends,

Thank you for joining Cumberland Advisors for this end-of-week update on market conditions, bonds & equities with Matt McAleer, and John Moussea, CFA.

This week:
Matt McAleer on ETFs & Equities
-Everything you can ask for!
-Concerns? Financials…
-Some of the froth is coming off of June gains
-Be careful about drawing lines in the sand. We don’t know where the market will pull back to.
-We have some dry powder in the way of cash for some of our strategiesJohn Mousseau’s Update on the Fixed Income Market
-Concern over re-flaring of virus and downdraft of economic activity
-We think work will continue with no hard shut down
-On the muni side, easy week. About 8 billion in issuance, all deals well subscribed
-Cheap deals get way over subscribed – plenty of demand for cheap municipal issuance
-Retail investors are gearing up for a July 1st coupon reinvestment periodKeep in mind markets are closed on July 3rd. We’ll see you a day early on Thursday.Please reach out with any questions/comments you may have about this update; we appreciate your calls, comments, and emails. Watch in the player above or at this link: https://youtu.be/BAHK2EeiWpw

 

-Matt McAleer

Matt enjoys your feedback. You can reach him at:
-Link to Matt’s Email: Matthew.McAleer@Cumber.com
-Link to Matt’s Twitter: https://twitter.com/MattMcAleer4
-Link to Matt’s LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/matthew-c-mcaleer/
-Call Matt: (800) 257-7013

Other questions or comments? Email us at info@cumber.com or give us a call at (800) 257-7013.

Contact Matt or any one of our advisors by following this link: https://www.cumber.com/our-people/


Cumberland Advisors Market Commentary

Cumberland Advisors Market Commentary offers insights and analysis on upcoming, important economic issues that potentially impact global financial markets. Our team shares their thinking on global economic developments, market news and other factors that often influence investment opportunities and strategies. Our readers appreciate its timeliness, depth of analysis, and quality of research.

To read current and past commentaries, visit https://www.cumber.com/category/market-commentary/


South Korea vs. Brazil: Smart Policies and Practices Save Lives

Author: William Witherell, Ph.D., Post Date: June 26, 2020

Bill Witherell, Ph.D. Chief Global Economist & Portfolio Manager Email | Bio There are sharp differences in the way countries have responded to the global pandemic caused by the COVID-19 virus. A comparison of the recent experiences of South Korea, widely recognized as having the best organized COVID-19 defense, and Brazil, a strong contender for [Continued…]


Forrest Gump Responses

Author: David R. Kotok, Post Date: June 25, 2020

We’ve been compiling responses to our commentary on Forrest Gump’s advice. For those who missed it, here’s the link: https://www.cumber.com/cumberland-advisors-commentary-forrest-gumps-advice/. Now some quotes from readers. Bruce wrote: “Thanks for your Forrest Gump moment. Your most revealing sentence in all of this missive is ‘people are now required to take full responsibility for their own personal […]


Update from ECRI

Author: David R. Kotok, Post Date: June 24, 2020

Market Commentary - Cumberland Advisors - A Nasty, Short and Bitter Recession (ECRI)

“A Nasty, Short and Bitter Recession”: An Update First: here’s some very important history; then, the updated forecast! The Economic Cycle Research Institute (ECRI) specializes in “calling cycle turning points in economic growth and inflation” and has a long, exemplary history of getting those forecasts right (https://www.businesscycle.com). Cofounded by the late Geoffrey H. Moore, winner […]


Not What It Seems: Where’s the Beef?

Author: Robert Eisenbeis, Ph.D., Post Date: June 23, 2020

Not What It Seems: Where’s the Beef? As reported previously, the Federal Reserve has embarked upon an evolving series of support and lending programs as part of its emergency response to the COVID-19 pandemic. As Chairman Powell stated in his post-FOMC meeting press conference and in subsequent Congressional testimony, the Fed has responded “forcefully, proactively and aggressively” to the crisis. This is […]


Father’s Day

Author: David R. Kotok, Post Date: June 21, 2020

Happy Fathers Day

Happy Father’s Day. I will be brief so that you can get right to this Sunday’s video offering — a wonderful message on YouTube. My father was born in 1918, the year of the Spanish Flu. He grew up in the family grocery store. He worked there for his father, who worked there for his […]


 

Loretta Mester Interview

Author: David R. Kotok, Post Date: June 19, 2020

Fed president & CEO Loretta Mester On Demand Interview

Loretta Mester has a distinguished, multi-decade career with the Federal Reserve. She currently serves as president and CEO of the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, votes on the FOMC, and immerses herself deeply in the issues of America’s banks and financial institutions. She agreed to an extended and detailed hour-long discussion with GIC. Here’s the […]


Happy Birthday to Cumberland

Author: David R. Kotok, Post Date: June 18, 2020

Market Commentary - Cumberland Advisors - Happy Birthday to Cumberland June 18, 2020, is the 47th anniversary of the founding of Cumberland Advisors. My co-founding partner, the late Sheldon “Shep” Goldberg, and I had completed the filing with the Securities & Exchange Commission by mail. We complied with all appropriate rules. We used a special law firm whose expertise was needed in those days. And we […]


The FOMC: Whatever (and However Long) It Takes

Author: Robert Eisenbeis, Ph.D., Post Date: June 17, 2020

Market Commentary - Cumberland Advisors - The FOMC Whatever (and However Long) It Takes To no one’s surprise, the FOMC in its June meeting reaffirmed its 0–25 basis-point target for the federal funds rate. Markets did not react well, especially since the announcement came on the heels of a fairly downbeat assessment by Chairman Powell regarding the expected slow path for the recovery and the problems in the labor […]


AOC or MCC

Author: David R. Kotok, Post Date: June 16, 2020

David-Kotok-Quote - This is what’s best for my country “Do you have a forecast for the November election?” asked a client. Matt McAleer and I were doing a joint account review conference call. The question has been increasingly raised in our client and consultant review meetings. At the moment the answer is “no.” We watch the polls, and we noted the reduction in Trump […]


Forrest Gump’s Advice

Author: David R. Kotok, Post Date: June 14, 2020

Market Commentary - Cumberland Advisors - Is a refusal to wear a mask, as Forrest Gump said Stupid is as stupid does I wish all readers a good Sunday morning. I have to be more sobering today than I have been in recent Sunday missives. Below is a quote from POLITICO, issued on Thursday morning, June 11, 2020, at about 8:30 AM. “VP MIKE PENCE visited a TRUMP/PENCE campaign office and posted a photo of the staff standing […]


Cumberland Advisors Market Commentary – Human Emotions, Structure of Strategy, and Diversification of Risk

Author: David R. Kotok, Post Date: June 10, 2020

Human Emotions, Structure of Strategy, and Diversification of Risk

Below is a 20 year comparison of MDY (the S&P 400 midcap index) and SPY (the S&P 500 largecap index). The 20 year relative performance gap is obvious. Please look carefully at those interim periods when MDY violently outperformed SPY and also look at reversals. The typical investment question is “what happens next?” One of [Continued…]

Cumberland Advisors Market Commentary – Digging Deeper

Author: Robert Eisenbeis, Ph.D., Post Date: June 9, 2020

Market Commentary - Cumberland Advisors - Digging Deeper- Who Was and Was Not Employed

On Friday, the Dow bounced over 750 points, reacting to the May employment report. In truth, it seems that participants never read beyond the first sentence, which stated: “Total nonfarm payroll employment rose by 2.5 million in May (private sector employment increased 3.1 million while government employment declined by 585 thousand) and the unemployment rate [Continued…]


Dr. Robert Corell at USFSM

Are municipalities ready for climate change? What are the repercussions for credit ratings and bonds? We examined many different angles of climate change during our January 2019 Climate Change summit ( https://buff.ly/2WgFkWU ) led by Bob Bunting at the University of South Florida Sarasota-Manatee (USFSM) including a presentation on conditions in the arctic.

We were fortunate to have the opportunity to speak to the featured presenter, Dr. Robert Corell, about his experience in the arctic for a few minutes on camera. David R. Kotok of Cumberland Advisors leads the discussion, “What’s Happening in the Arctic,” in this short interview.

See Dr. Corell’s talk along with presentation slides at the 31:05 minute mark here: https://buff.ly/2WgFkWU


The economy is reopening in all 50 states and there is a patchwork of regulations and guidelines on how to do it safely. What about masks? Anecdotally, we still see a lot of folks not wearing them in public. What do we know?

About Masks – (Plus a personal note)

David Kotok - About MasksStraight Talk on Masks from Anthony Fauci In a widely shared YouTube interview with Lilly Singh, Anthony Fauci, head of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases (NIAID) and a member of the White House coronavirus task force, explained the rationale for wearing face masks. He also explained why the CDC didn’t initially suggest wearing them [Continued…]


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Cumberland Advisors Market Commentaries offer insights and analysis on upcoming, important economic issues that potentially impact global financial markets. Our team shares their thinking on global economic developments, market news and other factors that often influence investment opportunities and strategies.

Posted on: 06/27/2020 arrow Watch Video arrow
Cumberland Advisors Week In Review 2020-06-19

Cumberland Advisors Week in Review (Jun 15, 2020 – Jun 19, 2020)

The Cumberland Advisors Week in Review is a recap of news, commentary, and opinion from our team. These are not revised assessments, and circumstances may have changed in the market from the time of original publication. We also include older commentaries that our editors have determined may be of interest to our audience. Your feedback is always welcome.

Cumberland Advisors’ Weekly Recap

Thank you for joining Cumberland Advisors for this end-of-week update on market conditions, bonds & equities with Matt McAleer, and John Moussea, CFA.

This week:
Matt McAleer on ETFs & Equities
-What is the market trying to tell us?
-Matt has a relative strength chart to share and walk you through and he tells you what jumps out at him and what it’s telling him
-You might be shocked when he reveals what’s behind various sectorsChart
John Mousseau’s Update on the Fixed Income Market
-The real story this week is in two places
(1) Infrastructure Bill proposed – very interesting parts to it including “Build America” bonds; John details
(2) Allowing municipalities to do advanced refunding and lower their debt service costs
-What about American Airlines? No trouble selling their bonds. What does this mean?
– John explainsThanks for joining us again this week. Please reach out with any questions/comments you may have about this update; we appreciate your calls, comments, and emails. Watch in the player above or at this link: https://youtu.be/UER1arjCCe0

Stay safe, healthy, have a great weekend,
and Happy Father’s Day!

-Matt McAleer

Matt enjoys your feedback. You can reach him at:
-Link to Matt’s Email: Matthew.McAleer@Cumber.com
-Link to Matt’s Twitter: https://twitter.com/MattMcAleer4
-Link to Matt’s LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/matthew-c-mcaleer/
-Call Matt: (800) 257-7013

Other questions or comments? Email us at info@cumber.com or give us a call at (800) 257-7013


Loretta Mester Interview

Author: David R. Kotok, Post Date: June 19, 2020

Fed president & CEO Loretta Mester On Demand Interview

Loretta Mester has a distinguished, multi-decade career with the Federal Reserve. She currently serves as president and CEO of the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, votes on the FOMC, and immerses herself deeply in the issues of America’s banks and financial institutions. She agreed to an extended and detailed hour-long discussion with GIC. Here’s the […]


Happy Birthday to Cumberland

Author: David R. Kotok, Post Date: June 18, 2020

Market Commentary - Cumberland Advisors - Happy Birthday to Cumberland June 18, 2020, is the 47th anniversary of the founding of Cumberland Advisors. My co-founding partner, the late Sheldon “Shep” Goldberg, and I had completed the filing with the Securities & Exchange Commission by mail. We complied with all appropriate rules. We used a special law firm whose expertise was needed in those days. And we […]


The FOMC: Whatever (and However Long) It Takes

Author: Robert Eisenbeis, Ph.D., Post Date: June 17, 2020

Market Commentary - Cumberland Advisors - The FOMC Whatever (and However Long) It Takes To no one’s surprise, the FOMC in its June meeting reaffirmed its 0–25 basis-point target for the federal funds rate. Markets did not react well, especially since the announcement came on the heels of a fairly downbeat assessment by Chairman Powell regarding the expected slow path for the recovery and the problems in the labor […]


AOC or MCC

Author: David R. Kotok, Post Date: June 16, 2020

David-Kotok-Quote - This is what’s best for my country “Do you have a forecast for the November election?” asked a client. Matt McAleer and I were doing a joint account review conference call. The question has been increasingly raised in our client and consultant review meetings. At the moment the answer is “no.” We watch the polls, and we noted the reduction in Trump […]


Forrest Gump’s Advice

Author: David R. Kotok, Post Date: June 14, 2020

Market Commentary - Cumberland Advisors - Is a refusal to wear a mask, as Forrest Gump said Stupid is as stupid does I wish all readers a good Sunday morning. I have to be more sobering today than I have been in recent Sunday missives. Below is a quote from POLITICO, issued on Thursday morning, June 11, 2020, at about 8:30 AM. “VP MIKE PENCE visited a TRUMP/PENCE campaign office and posted a photo of the staff standing […]


Cumberland Advisors Market Commentary – Human Emotions, Structure of Strategy, and Diversification of Risk

Author: David R. Kotok, Post Date: June 10, 2020

Human Emotions, Structure of Strategy, and Diversification of Risk

Below is a 20 year comparison of MDY (the S&P 400 midcap index) and SPY (the S&P 500 largecap index). The 20 year relative performance gap is obvious. Please look carefully at those interim periods when MDY violently outperformed SPY and also look at reversals. The typical investment question is “what happens next?” One of [Continued…]

Cumberland Advisors Market Commentary – Digging Deeper

Author: Robert Eisenbeis, Ph.D., Post Date: June 9, 2020

Market Commentary - Cumberland Advisors - Digging Deeper- Who Was and Was Not Employed

On Friday, the Dow bounced over 750 points, reacting to the May employment report. In truth, it seems that participants never read beyond the first sentence, which stated: “Total nonfarm payroll employment rose by 2.5 million in May (private sector employment increased 3.1 million while government employment declined by 585 thousand) and the unemployment rate [Continued…]

Posted on: 06/20/2020 arrow Watch Video arrow
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