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Cumberland-Advisors-Market-Update

Cumberland Advisors Week in Review (Oct 26, 2020 – Oct 30, 2020)

The Cumberland Advisors Week in Review is a recap of news, commentary, and opinion from our team.

Week In Review

These are not revised assessments, and circumstances may have changed in the market from the time of original publication. We also include older commentaries that our editors have determined may be of interest to our audience. Your feedback is always welcome.

CUMBERLAND ADVISORS’ WEEKLY RECAP

As part of Cumberland Advisors’ continuous effort to maintain strong customer relationships, we offer this week’s short video discussing current market conditions and how we are positioning portfolios.

Dear Clients & Friends,

Thank you for joining Cumberland Advisors for this end-of-week update on market conditions, bonds & equities with Matt McAleer and John Mousseau, CFA.

John Mousseau & Fixed Income / Munis
-Funny week in bonds, we discuss a breakdown of numbers
-Less of a Blue Wave? Tighter election races than a few weeks ago.
-Yields have gone up this week.
-Despite +33% GDP this quarter, we’re still down about 10% vs pre-COVID
-Issuers came to the market fast and furious previous to this week
-We took advantage of the extra supply
-Muni supply is lower this week, a drop of 20B to 5B
-Corporate issuance dropped
-Taxable muni issuance dropped, looks like issuers are trying to get out of the way of the election
-Get out and vote!

Matt McAleer & Equities / ETFs

-Nowhere to to hide this week!
-Seeing lots of volatility
-We’re watching supply and demand for our signals
-Markets are constantly measuring supply/demand
-Sectors and industries were down uniformly, the best performing was utilities, still down 4%
-“How about a little fire, Scarecrow?” – That’s the kind of market it was this week!
-Stepping back with a wider lens, we’re seeing if the demand at 3200 is real
-The market has really performed nicely on the equity side in the face of constant headline news
-John mentioned 10yr, 87bps. Interesting. If there was real risk in the market, I would have expected yields to drop. That run from equities to treasuries. That fear run to safety
-Gold is down. We would expect it to get a bid if there was real fear.
-For now, we look at things as volatility. We’ll keep an eye out, that can change.
-Currently we’re looking to put money to work vs. take money off on the equity side.
Please reach out with any questions/comments you may have about this update; we appreciate your calls, comments, and emails. Watch in the player above or at this link: https://youtu.be/s7cLtDSNmFE

Stay safe, healthy, and have a great weekend.

-Matt McAleer & Cumberland Advisors

Matt enjoys your feedback. You can reach him at:
-Link to Matt’s Email: Matthew.McAleer@Cumber.com
-Link to Matt’s Twitter: https://twitter.com/MattMcAleer4
-Link to Matt’s LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/matthew-c-mcaleer/
-Call Matt: (800) 257-7013

Other questions or comments? Email us at info@cumber.com or give us a call at (800) 257-7013.

Contact Matt or any one of our advisors by following this link: https://www.cumber.com/our-people/


Cumberland Advisors In The News

Financial Advisor Magazine quotes Patricia Healy, CFA
California’s Boom Collapses With Fires Adding $1.1 Billion Toll
October 16, 2020
Frequent fires “may have inhabitants, insurers, and government questioning the viability of living there and continually rebuilding,” said Patricia Healy, senior vice president of research at Cumberland Advisors. And the pandemic may trigger structural changes that could also fuel the exodus from the Golden State, such as the rise of remote work.
https://www.fa-mag.com/news/california-s-boom-collapses-with-fires-adding–1-1-billion-toll-58482.html

USF Mentions Cumberland Advisors
Holbrook: COVID — a time to learn
October 30, 2020
The USF Sarasota-Manatee campus is partnering with Cumberland Advisors locally and the Global Interdependence Center based in Philadelphia on Nov. 17 to present a virtual panel discussion on Post-Election Financial Markets.
https://www.heraldtribune.com/story/opinion/columns/guest/2020/10/30/covid-a-time-to-learn/6073136002/

Barron’s quotes Bill Witherell, Ph.D.
Tech Stock Valuations Look Increasingly Stretched
October 23, 2020
The inflow of global funds into the two mainland China markets this year has topped $26 billion.… U.S. institutional investors have just demonstrated their support for a continued strong linkage between the U.S. and Chinese financial markets by ordering more than $27 billion in response to China’s first bond offer made directly to U.S. buyers. The bond offer was for $6 billion, and the yield on the 10-year component was about 0.5 percentage points above the equivalent U.S. Treasury. The huge China onshore bond market is estimated as the second largest globally. In contrast, the China offshore market is now small but has huge potential, as the bond sale to U.S. investors suggests. Participating in and helping to develop these markets together with the Chinese pensions and insurance markets will become important for U.S. financial firms.
Paywall: https://www.barrons.com/articles/tech-sector-valuations-are-cause-for-concern-51603495536

Reuters quotes John Mousseau, CFA
Illinois to sell $850 million of bonds as investors brace for junk status
October 19, 2020
“Illinois had problems before the pandemic,” Richman said. “Things are getting worse not better.” Still, John Mousseau, president and CEO of Cumberland Advisors, said the high yields will attract buyers. “People will buy it. They are yield-starved,” he said.
https://www.stltoday.com/news/local/illinois/illinois-to-sell-850-million-of-bonds-as-investors-brace-for-junk-status/article_b57e80d4-1ff4-5e31-a0d4-1b1559980355.html

The Bond Buyer quotes Amy Raymond
Primary in focus as Illinois, Wisconsin, Nevada, Washington go competitive
October 20, 2020
Activity was modest Tuesday, according to Amy Raymond, manager of the fixed income department at Cumberland Advisors in Sarasota, Fl. “Tomorrow looks to be a large tax-exempt new issue day,” she said, with the pricing of the $1.5 billion Illinois Commonspirit Health deal on Wednesday and the $1.9 billion Sutter Health deal on Thursday — both being priced by Morgan Stanley and both in the triple-B rating category, which might carry slightly attractive yields.
https://www.bondbuyer.com/news/primary-in-focus-as-illinois-wisconsin-nevada-washington-go-competitive

Politico quotes David R. kotok
As Trump warns of economic disaster, Wall Street grows giddy about Biden
“Mitch McConnell is a patient warrior,” David Kotok, chief investment officer at Cumberland Advisors, said of the Senate majority leader. “He will look at his declaration to stymie Obama and likely try to repeat it with Biden.”
https://www.politico.com/news/2020/10/27/wall-street-biden-blue-wave-432710


Cumberland Advisors Market Commentary

Cumberland Advisors Market Commentary offers insights and analysis on upcoming, important economic issues that potentially impact global financial markets. Our team shares their thinking on global economic developments, market news and other factors that often influence investment opportunities and strategies. Our readers appreciate its timeliness, depth of analysis, and quality of research.

To read current and past commentaries, visit https://www.cumber.com/category/market-commentary/


60/40 is not dead yet

Author: David R. Kotok, Post Date: October 29, 2020

Market Commentary - Cumberland Advisors - 60-40 is not dead yet “The 60% stock/40% bond portfolio is largely a relic of the past, with alternatives likely to become a bigger portion of investors’ portfolios over the next decade, asset management chiefs said during a panel discussion at the Milken Global Institute Conference on Wednesday.” (“The 60/40 Portfolio Is Dead. Here’s What Will Replace It,” https://www.barrons.com/articles/the-60-40-portfolio-is-dead-heres-what-will-replace-it-51602757800) We disagree […]


Q&A with Christopher Whalen

Author: David R. Kotok, Post Date: October 27, 2020

Market Commentary - Cumberland Advisors - Q&A with Chris Whalen Christopher Whalen is a longtime friend and confidant, so this interview with him inevitably reflects the sorts of biases that result from engaging, enlightening conversations over many years. Many know Chris from TV appearances or press quotes or social media commentary. Others may know his three successful books: Inflated: How Money and Debt Built the […]


Florida: Desantis, Disease, Deaths, Schools

Author: David R. Kotok, Post Date: October 25, 2020

David-Kotok-Quote-Florida - Desantis, Disease, Deaths, Schools v2-2020 The DeSantis administration’s official COVID-19 track record in Florida shows more than 840,000 confirmed COVID-19 disease cases and 16,470 dead among Florida residents as of Thursday, October 22 (https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/us-map). We have only crude estimates of how many people may have caught the SARS-CoV-2 virus in Florida and taken it with them to someplace else. Ron […]


Qingdao, Canada, and Florida

Author: David R. Kotok, Post Date: October 22, 2020

David R. Kotok

Readers can compare for themselves. In Qingdao, China, just a dozen new cases of COVID-19 triggered the testing of the city’s entire population – that’s nine million tests in just five days. Sickness and death are being held tightly in check and so is damage to economic growth. (“China’s Beer Capital to Test Entire Population for […]

Taxes

Author: David R. Kotok, Post Date: October 21, 2020

Market Commentary - Cumberland Advisors - Taxes

There are several policy areas where the differences between Biden and Trump are huge. Climate change policy is one of them, and we have discussed that in the past. Another is taxes. Essentially, Biden promises he will raise taxation in many ways, with the increases falling on businesses and on Americans with taxable incomes of $400,000 per […]


Where Do We Stand Now?

Author: Robert Eisenbeis, Ph.D., Post Date: October 20, 2020

Two key issues in the upcoming election are jobs and the economy. Given their importance, it is appropriate to review exactly where we are on these issues. Both the economy and the job situation have been radically impacted by the COVID-19 pandemic. In the first quarter of 2020, real GDP declined at an annual rate […]

Cumberland Advisors Market Commentary – China and Wall Street – Decoupling or Linking?

Author: Bill Witherell, Ph.D., Post Date: October 19, 2020

China and Wall Street – Decoupling or Linking by William Witherell, Ph.D

For at least three decades, under both Republican and Democratic administrations, the United States has urged China to open up its financial markets to foreign capital and foreign financial firms. However, as part of a broader strategy to decouple relationships with China, President Donald Trump’s administration appears to want global financial firms to pull back […]


Women

Author: David R. Kotok, Post Date:

Market-Commentary-Cumberland-Advisors-David-Sunday-Women

The facts are becoming undeniably clearer. Labor force data confirms them. Anyone who wishes to dispute this claim may offer evidence to the contrary, but we won’t bog down this Sunday morning commentary with charts and links. There are about 25 million to 30 million Americans (out of a labor force of 160 million) who are in […]


Insider Trading – the Case of Consumer Discretionary

Author: Leo Chen, Ph.D., Post Date: October 15, 2020

Leo Chen, Ph.D.We have recently published two commentaries regarding insider trading. You may find them here: https://www.cumber.com/cumberland-advisors-market-commentary-insider-trading-the-case-of-energy/ & https://www.cumber.com/cumberland-advisors-market-commentary-insider-trading-what-does-it-tell-us/. As the third quarter has just come to an end, we want to pick the third-quarter winner, Consumer Discretionary, as our latest insider trading study. Please see Chart 1 below for the sector’s third-quarter sector performance. Consumer Discretionary […]


Yogi: “It aint over”

Author: David R. Kotok, Post Date: October 14, 2020

Market Commentary - Cumberland Advisors - Yogi “It aint over” “It aint over till its over” is exactly how Yogi Berra signed this ball when I bought it at a charity auction decades ago. He did put a dot over each lower case i. He didn’t use an apostrophe in ain’t, nor in it’s, and he did use till instead of until. Yogi’s message is […]


SCOTUS

Author: , Post Date: October 12, 2020

Market Commentary - Cumberland Advisors - SCOTUSAmerica’s stock and bond markets seem to be accepting of the current SCOTUS nominee and the political controversy. The following passage is translated from the original French work De La Démocratie en Amérique (Democracy in America), written by Alexis de Tocqueville nearly 200 years ago: “The great difficulty was, not to devise the constitution of […]


Three Items to Consider

Author: David R. Kotok, Post Date: October 11, 2020

Market Commentary - Cumberland Advisors - Three Items to Consider Item 1. My friend Nick Colas of DataTrek sent along a link to a Lapham’s Quarterly piece by Francine Prose that dives deeply into previous pandemics around the world and draws some surprising parallels with the way our present political establishment has managed the pandemic. The author says, “What’s so startling about the texts and […]


Wildfires Out West

Author: Patricia Healy, CFA, Post Date: October 8, 2020

Patricia Healy, CFA

On Sunday, Bloomberg reported that this year’s California fires had scorched more ground than the last three years of fires combined. Higher temperatures and greater winds have contributed to the spread. Year-to-date, the California fires have covered 4 million acres in 8,200 fires throughout the state. Some 8,400 homes and buildings have been lost, and […]


Markets, Events, Economics

Author: David R. Kotok, Post Date: October 7, 2020

David R. Kotok

Market-moving events and data points are coming fast, and in a chaotic sequence. Here are some bullets we are watching. 1. The outlook for elections is still highly uncertain and volatile. Biden appears to be strengthening. Texas governor Greg Abbott has restricted drop boxes for absentee ballots to one per county (“Texas governor shuts down drop-off […]


Muni Bonds Turn Toward the Election

Author: John R. Mousseau, CFA, Post Date: October 6, 2020

Market Commentary - Cumberland Advisors - (Mousseau)

With the presidential election a month away, we start to mull over what the bond market might look like post-election day. While most polls have Vice-President Biden ahead by 6–7% points, we know the race has the potential to be much closer, since the 50 individual states decide the election by virtue of voting by […]


International Equity ETF Q3 Overview and Outlook

Author: William Witherell, Ph.D., Post Date: October 5, 2020

Market Commentary - Cumberland Advisors - William 'Bill' Witherell - International Equity ETF Q3 Overview and Outlook

The global economy is expected to have registered a stronger than anticipated rebound in the third quarter with record-breaking growth rates after output collapsed in the first half of the because of the COVID-19 pandemic. The reopening of businesses and the easing of lockdowns and other restrictions in many countries allowed the rapid pickup in […]


Trio to Trio with Laura Wazen

Author: David R. Kotok, Post Date: October 4, 2020

We have a medley of remarkable performances for you this Sunday – a little diversion from the daily political and pandemic fare. Let’s kick things off with a rousing flash-mob rendition of Beethoven’s Symphony No. 9, Ode to Joy, performed years before COVID-19 entered our lives. It lifts us now out of this moment and […]


Hope – An Update

Author: Robert Eisenbeis, Ph.D., Post Date: October 2, 2020

Cumberland Advisors Market Commentary - Hope – An Update - Robert-Eisenbeis, Ph.D.

Our commentary “FOMC: Hope Now Seems to Be a Strategy” (https://www.cumber.com/cumberland-advisors-market-commentary-fomc-hope-now-seems-to-be-a-strategy/) focused on the FOMC’s latest decision to keep its target for the federal funds rate between 0–.25%, to change its strategy for policy going forward to focus on shortfalls in labor markets from what the Committee perceives to be full employment, and to shift [Continued…]


Links to other websites or electronic media controlled or offered by Third-Parties (non-affiliates of Cumberland Advisors) are provided only as a reference and courtesy to our users. Cumberland Advisors has no control over such websites, does not recommend or endorse any opinions, ideas, products, information, or content of such sites, and makes no warranties as to the accuracy, completeness, reliability or suitability of their content. Cumberland Advisors hereby disclaims liability for any information, materials, products or services posted or offered at any of the Third-Party websites. The Third-Party may have a privacy and/or security policy different from that of Cumberland Advisors. Therefore, please refer to the specific privacy and security policies of the Third-Party when accessing their websites.

Sign up for our FREE Cumberland Market Commentaries

Cumberland Advisors Market Commentaries offer insights and analysis on upcoming, important economic issues that potentially impact global financial markets. Our team shares their thinking on global economic developments, market news and other factors that often influence investment opportunities and strategies.

Posted on: 10/31/2020 arrow Watch Video arrow
Cumberland-Advisors-Market-Update-2020-10-23

Cumberland Advisors Week in Review (Oct 19, 2020 – Oct 23, 2020)

The Cumberland Advisors Week in Review is a recap of news, commentary, and opinion from our team.

Week In Review

These are not revised assessments, and circumstances may have changed in the market from the time of original publication. We also include older commentaries that our editors have determined may be of interest to our audience. Your feedback is always welcome.

CUMBERLAND ADVISORS’ WEEKLY RECAP

As part of Cumberland Advisors’ continuous effort to maintain strong customer relationships, we offer this week’s short video discussing current market conditions and how we are positioning portfolios.

Dear Clients & Friends,

Thank you for joining Cumberland Advisors for this end-of-week update on market conditions, bonds & equities with Matt McAleer and John Mousseau, CFA.

Matt McAleer & Equities / ETFs

-Equity markets digesting COVID-19 and election headlines well
-Recent Russell 2000 outperformance showing expansion of breadth in the market
-Value maintaining strong bid due to interest rate relief for banks and insurance
-Know the difference between Volatility and Risk

John Mousseau & Fixed Income / Munis

-Bond yields creeping higher
-Markets thinking about a Democratic victory
-More muni issuers looking to come to market before the election
-Looking out for Jobless Claims and Q3 GDP next week

Please reach out with any questions/comments you may have about this update; we appreciate your calls, comments, and emails. Watch in the player above or at this link: (https://youtu.be/k7ByJltj_TE)

Stay safe, healthy, and have a great weekend.

-Matt McAleer & Cumberland Advisors

Matt enjoys your feedback. You can reach him at:
-Link to Matt’s Email: Matthew.McAleer@Cumber.com
-Link to Matt’s Twitter: https://twitter.com/MattMcAleer4
-Link to Matt’s LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/matthew-c-mcaleer/
-Call Matt: (800) 257-7013

Other questions or comments? Email us at info@cumber.com or give us a call at (800) 257-7013.

Contact Matt or any one of our advisors by following this link: https://www.cumber.com/our-people/

 


Cumberland Advisors Market Commentary

Cumberland Advisors Market Commentary offers insights and analysis on upcoming, important economic issues that potentially impact global financial markets. Our team shares their thinking on global economic developments, market news and other factors that often influence investment opportunities and strategies. Our readers appreciate its timeliness, depth of analysis, and quality of research.

To read current and past commentaries, visit https://www.cumber.com/category/market-commentary/


Qingdao, Canada, and Florida

Author: David R. Kotok, Post Date: October 22, 2020

David R. Kotok

Readers can compare for themselves. In Qingdao, China, just a dozen new cases of COVID-19 triggered the testing of the city’s entire population – that’s nine million tests in just five days. Sickness and death are being held tightly in check and so is damage to economic growth. (“China’s Beer Capital to Test Entire Population for […]

Taxes

Author: David R. Kotok, Post Date: October 21, 2020

Market Commentary - Cumberland Advisors - Taxes

There are several policy areas where the differences between Biden and Trump are huge. Climate change policy is one of them, and we have discussed that in the past. Another is taxes. Essentially, Biden promises he will raise taxation in many ways, with the increases falling on businesses and on Americans with taxable incomes of $400,000 per […]


Where Do We Stand Now?

Author: Robert Eisenbeis, Ph.D., Post Date: October 20, 2020

Two key issues in the upcoming election are jobs and the economy. Given their importance, it is appropriate to review exactly where we are on these issues. Both the economy and the job situation have been radically impacted by the COVID-19 pandemic. In the first quarter of 2020, real GDP declined at an annual rate […]

Cumberland Advisors Market Commentary – China and Wall Street – Decoupling or Linking?

Author: Bill Witherell, Ph.D., Post Date: October 19, 2020

China and Wall Street – Decoupling or Linking by William Witherell, Ph.D

For at least three decades, under both Republican and Democratic administrations, the United States has urged China to open up its financial markets to foreign capital and foreign financial firms. However, as part of a broader strategy to decouple relationships with China, President Donald Trump’s administration appears to want global financial firms to pull back […]


Women

Author: David R. Kotok, Post Date:

Market-Commentary-Cumberland-Advisors-David-Sunday-Women

The facts are becoming undeniably clearer. Labor force data confirms them. Anyone who wishes to dispute this claim may offer evidence to the contrary, but we won’t bog down this Sunday morning commentary with charts and links. There are about 25 million to 30 million Americans (out of a labor force of 160 million) who are in […]


Insider Trading – the Case of Consumer Discretionary

Author: Leo Chen, Ph.D., Post Date: October 15, 2020

Leo Chen, Ph.D.We have recently published two commentaries regarding insider trading. You may find them here: https://www.cumber.com/cumberland-advisors-market-commentary-insider-trading-the-case-of-energy/ & https://www.cumber.com/cumberland-advisors-market-commentary-insider-trading-what-does-it-tell-us/. As the third quarter has just come to an end, we want to pick the third-quarter winner, Consumer Discretionary, as our latest insider trading study. Please see Chart 1 below for the sector’s third-quarter sector performance. Consumer Discretionary […]


Yogi: “It aint over”

Author: David R. Kotok, Post Date: October 14, 2020

Market Commentary - Cumberland Advisors - Yogi “It aint over” “It aint over till its over” is exactly how Yogi Berra signed this ball when I bought it at a charity auction decades ago. He did put a dot over each lower case i. He didn’t use an apostrophe in ain’t, nor in it’s, and he did use till instead of until. Yogi’s message is […]


SCOTUS

Author: , Post Date: October 12, 2020

Market Commentary - Cumberland Advisors - SCOTUSAmerica’s stock and bond markets seem to be accepting of the current SCOTUS nominee and the political controversy. The following passage is translated from the original French work De La Démocratie en Amérique (Democracy in America), written by Alexis de Tocqueville nearly 200 years ago: “The great difficulty was, not to devise the constitution of […]


Three Items to Consider

Author: David R. Kotok, Post Date: October 11, 2020

Market Commentary - Cumberland Advisors - Three Items to Consider Item 1. My friend Nick Colas of DataTrek sent along a link to a Lapham’s Quarterly piece by Francine Prose that dives deeply into previous pandemics around the world and draws some surprising parallels with the way our present political establishment has managed the pandemic. The author says, “What’s so startling about the texts and […]


Wildfires Out West

Author: Patricia Healy, CFA, Post Date: October 8, 2020

Patricia Healy, CFA

On Sunday, Bloomberg reported that this year’s California fires had scorched more ground than the last three years of fires combined. Higher temperatures and greater winds have contributed to the spread. Year-to-date, the California fires have covered 4 million acres in 8,200 fires throughout the state. Some 8,400 homes and buildings have been lost, and […]


Markets, Events, Economics

Author: David R. Kotok, Post Date: October 7, 2020

David R. Kotok

Market-moving events and data points are coming fast, and in a chaotic sequence. Here are some bullets we are watching. 1. The outlook for elections is still highly uncertain and volatile. Biden appears to be strengthening. Texas governor Greg Abbott has restricted drop boxes for absentee ballots to one per county (“Texas governor shuts down drop-off […]


Muni Bonds Turn Toward the Election

Author: John R. Mousseau, CFA, Post Date: October 6, 2020

Market Commentary - Cumberland Advisors - (Mousseau)

With the presidential election a month away, we start to mull over what the bond market might look like post-election day. While most polls have Vice-President Biden ahead by 6–7% points, we know the race has the potential to be much closer, since the 50 individual states decide the election by virtue of voting by […]


International Equity ETF Q3 Overview and Outlook

Author: William Witherell, Ph.D., Post Date: October 5, 2020

Market Commentary - Cumberland Advisors - William 'Bill' Witherell - International Equity ETF Q3 Overview and Outlook

The global economy is expected to have registered a stronger than anticipated rebound in the third quarter with record-breaking growth rates after output collapsed in the first half of the because of the COVID-19 pandemic. The reopening of businesses and the easing of lockdowns and other restrictions in many countries allowed the rapid pickup in […]


Trio to Trio with Laura Wazen

Author: David R. Kotok, Post Date: October 4, 2020

We have a medley of remarkable performances for you this Sunday – a little diversion from the daily political and pandemic fare. Let’s kick things off with a rousing flash-mob rendition of Beethoven’s Symphony No. 9, Ode to Joy, performed years before COVID-19 entered our lives. It lifts us now out of this moment and […]


Hope – An Update

Author: Robert Eisenbeis, Ph.D., Post Date: October 2, 2020

Cumberland Advisors Market Commentary - Hope – An Update - Robert-Eisenbeis, Ph.D.

Our commentary “FOMC: Hope Now Seems to Be a Strategy” (https://www.cumber.com/cumberland-advisors-market-commentary-fomc-hope-now-seems-to-be-a-strategy/) focused on the FOMC’s latest decision to keep its target for the federal funds rate between 0–.25%, to change its strategy for policy going forward to focus on shortfalls in labor markets from what the Committee perceives to be full employment, and to shift [Continued…]


Zika Pamphlet by David R. Kotok

Zika Download - Kotok

The Zika virus is mosquito-borne. The virus mutates frequently, just as all viruses do. And it can do serious damage to people. It is especially threatening to the fetus of a pregnant mother. It causes conditions, including microcephaly, which spell tragedy for the infant and the family. When it deals such damage to children, Zika imposes huge societal costs measured in the many millions of dollars. All this is documented in the writings that now constitute the chapters of this pamphlet.

https://www.cumber.com/zika/


Links to other websites or electronic media controlled or offered by Third-Parties (non-affiliates of Cumberland Advisors) are provided only as a reference and courtesy to our users. Cumberland Advisors has no control over such websites, does not recommend or endorse any opinions, ideas, products, information, or content of such sites, and makes no warranties as to the accuracy, completeness, reliability or suitability of their content. Cumberland Advisors hereby disclaims liability for any information, materials, products or services posted or offered at any of the Third-Party websites. The Third-Party may have a privacy and/or security policy different from that of Cumberland Advisors. Therefore, please refer to the specific privacy and security policies of the Third-Party when accessing their websites.

Sign up for our FREE Cumberland Market Commentaries

Cumberland Advisors Market Commentaries offer insights and analysis on upcoming, important economic issues that potentially impact global financial markets. Our team shares their thinking on global economic developments, market news and other factors that often influence investment opportunities and strategies.

Posted on: 10/24/2020 arrow Watch Video arrow
Cumberland-Advisors-Market-Update-2020-10-16

Cumberland Advisors Week in Review (Oct 12, 2020 – Oct 16, 2020)

The Cumberland Advisors Week in Review is a recap of news, commentary, and opinion from our team.

Week In Review

These are not revised assessments, and circumstances may have changed in the market from the time of original publication. We also include older commentaries that our editors have determined may be of interest to our audience. Your feedback is always welcome.

CUMBERLAND ADVISORS’ WEEKLY RECAP

As part of Cumberland Advisors’ continuous effort to maintain strong customer relationships, we offer this week’s short video discussing current market conditions and how we are positioning portfolios.

Dear Clients & Friends,

Thank you for joining Cumberland Advisors for this end-of-week update on market conditions, bonds & equities with Matt McAleer and John Mousseau, CFA.

Matt McAleer & Equities / ETFs

-Just what the doctor ordered!
-A little backing and filling, some drawdown midweek met with demand
-We have an interesting Blackrock table to share with you and what we find shocking
-We see nervousness with traders and investors today
-Most calls into our trading desk are about what’s going wrong or what’s going to go wrong
-Very few calls are asking “what can go right,” “what does next year look like,” or “what does the liquidity from the Fed look like?”
-It’s very important for a trader or investor to ask questions about what can go wrong and what can go right
-Matt gives some opinion on what he thinks is tilting things toward negative
-Are we a country in decline? Matt says, “no!”
-Conduct a web search on Messenger RNA (mRNA), fascinating science.
-Use some of your COVID-downtime to learn new things, mRNA as an example
-Where can some of our new discoveries take us down the road?
-Some discoveries and their associated companies will become spectacular successes in the future, something to keep an eye on

John Mousseau & Fixed Income / Munis

-John runs the numbers on interest rates, unemployment, CPI/PPI
-Yield move slowly upward over time
-Does the market expect a blue wave?
-Rates will continue to move up with anticipation of an improving economy
-Muni supply building, we expect to see some buying opportunities as this progresses
-Muni issuers looking to get their offerings into the market before the election
-Next week, looking at employment and new home sales

Please reach out with any questions/comments you may have about this update; we appreciate your calls, comments, and emails. Watch in the player above or at this link: https://youtu.be/is3g8hHxWnY

Stay safe, healthy, and have a great weekend.

-Matt McAleer & Cumberland Advisors

Matt enjoys your feedback. You can reach him at:
-Link to Matt’s Email: Matthew.McAleer@Cumber.com
-Link to Matt’s Twitter: https://twitter.com/MattMcAleer4
-Link to Matt’s LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/matthew-c-mcaleer/
-Call Matt: (800) 257-7013

Other questions or comments? Email us at info@cumber.com or give us a call at (800) 257-7013.

Contact Matt or any one of our advisors by following this link: https://www.cumber.com/our-people/

 


Cumberland Advisors Market Commentary

Cumberland Advisors Market Commentary offers insights and analysis on upcoming, important economic issues that potentially impact global financial markets. Our team shares their thinking on global economic developments, market news and other factors that often influence investment opportunities and strategies. Our readers appreciate its timeliness, depth of analysis, and quality of research.

To read current and past commentaries, visit https://www.cumber.com/category/market-commentary/


Insider Trading – the Case of Consumer Discretionary

Author: Leo Chen, Ph.D., Post Date: October 15, 2020

Leo Chen, Ph.D.We have recently published two commentaries regarding insider trading. You may find them here: https://www.cumber.com/cumberland-advisors-market-commentary-insider-trading-the-case-of-energy/ & https://www.cumber.com/cumberland-advisors-market-commentary-insider-trading-what-does-it-tell-us/. As the third quarter has just come to an end, we want to pick the third-quarter winner, Consumer Discretionary, as our latest insider trading study. Please see Chart 1 below for the sector’s third-quarter sector performance. Consumer Discretionary […]


Yogi: “It aint over”

Author: David R. Kotok, Post Date: October 14, 2020

Market Commentary - Cumberland Advisors - Yogi “It aint over” “It aint over till its over” is exactly how Yogi Berra signed this ball when I bought it at a charity auction decades ago. He did put a dot over each lower case i. He didn’t use an apostrophe in ain’t, nor in it’s, and he did use till instead of until. Yogi’s message is […]


SCOTUS

Author: , Post Date: October 12, 2020

Market Commentary - Cumberland Advisors - SCOTUSAmerica’s stock and bond markets seem to be accepting of the current SCOTUS nominee and the political controversy. The following passage is translated from the original French work De La Démocratie en Amérique (Democracy in America), written by Alexis de Tocqueville nearly 200 years ago: “The great difficulty was, not to devise the constitution of […]


Three Items to Consider

Author: David R. Kotok, Post Date: October 11, 2020

Market Commentary - Cumberland Advisors - Three Items to Consider Item 1. My friend Nick Colas of DataTrek sent along a link to a Lapham’s Quarterly piece by Francine Prose that dives deeply into previous pandemics around the world and draws some surprising parallels with the way our present political establishment has managed the pandemic. The author says, “What’s so startling about the texts and […]


Wildfires Out West

Author: Patricia Healy, CFA, Post Date: October 8, 2020

Patricia Healy, CFA

On Sunday, Bloomberg reported that this year’s California fires had scorched more ground than the last three years of fires combined. Higher temperatures and greater winds have contributed to the spread. Year-to-date, the California fires have covered 4 million acres in 8,200 fires throughout the state. Some 8,400 homes and buildings have been lost, and […]


Markets, Events, Economics

Author: David R. Kotok, Post Date: October 7, 2020

David R. Kotok

Market-moving events and data points are coming fast, and in a chaotic sequence. Here are some bullets we are watching. 1. The outlook for elections is still highly uncertain and volatile. Biden appears to be strengthening. Texas governor Greg Abbott has restricted drop boxes for absentee ballots to one per county (“Texas governor shuts down drop-off […]


Muni Bonds Turn Toward the Election

Author: John R. Mousseau, CFA, Post Date: October 6, 2020

Market Commentary - Cumberland Advisors - (Mousseau)

With the presidential election a month away, we start to mull over what the bond market might look like post-election day. While most polls have Vice-President Biden ahead by 6–7% points, we know the race has the potential to be much closer, since the 50 individual states decide the election by virtue of voting by […]


International Equity ETF Q3 Overview and Outlook

Author: William Witherell, Ph.D., Post Date: October 5, 2020

Market Commentary - Cumberland Advisors - William 'Bill' Witherell - International Equity ETF Q3 Overview and Outlook

The global economy is expected to have registered a stronger than anticipated rebound in the third quarter with record-breaking growth rates after output collapsed in the first half of the because of the COVID-19 pandemic. The reopening of businesses and the easing of lockdowns and other restrictions in many countries allowed the rapid pickup in […]


Trio to Trio with Laura Wazen

Author: David R. Kotok, Post Date: October 4, 2020

We have a medley of remarkable performances for you this Sunday – a little diversion from the daily political and pandemic fare. Let’s kick things off with a rousing flash-mob rendition of Beethoven’s Symphony No. 9, Ode to Joy, performed years before COVID-19 entered our lives. It lifts us now out of this moment and […]


Hope – An Update

Author: Robert Eisenbeis, Ph.D., Post Date: October 2, 2020

Cumberland Advisors Market Commentary - Hope – An Update - Robert-Eisenbeis, Ph.D.

Our commentary “FOMC: Hope Now Seems to Be a Strategy” (https://www.cumber.com/cumberland-advisors-market-commentary-fomc-hope-now-seems-to-be-a-strategy/) focused on the FOMC’s latest decision to keep its target for the federal funds rate between 0–.25%, to change its strategy for policy going forward to focus on shortfalls in labor markets from what the Committee perceives to be full employment, and to shift [Continued…]


Taxable Total Return 3rd Quarter Review

Author: Daniel Himelberger, Post Date: October 1, 2020

Cumberland Advisors Market Commentary - Taxable Total Return 3rd Quarter Review

Markets experienced volatility in the third quarter of 2020 as COVID-19 and the looming election continued to drive uncertainty regarding an economic rebound. The net result of the volatility left the Treasury market little changed on the quarter, while spreads on investment-grade corporates and taxable municipals continued to grind lower from the peaks set at [Continued…]


Beware of Private Equity in Retirement Plans – 3(38) Fiduciary Advisors Are Needed Instead

Author: Michael McNiven, Ph.D., Post Date: September 30, 2020

Cumberland Advisors Market Commentary - Michael McNiven, Ph.D.

Over the summer, the private equity industry received a very favorable ruling from the Department of Labor, allowing 401(k) plans to invest in private equity funds. Of course, the private equity industry and their lobbyists have long desired the opportunity to access 401(k) assets, and they are ecstatic. This opportunity opens up several trillion dollars [Continued…]


UK Facing Virus Second Wave and Brexit Deadline

Author: William Witherell, Ph.D., Post Date: September 29, 2020

Market Commentary - Cumberland Advisors - UK Facing Virus Second Wave and Brexit Deadline

United Kingdom stocks are underperforming the Eurozone markets as the nation faces the double challenges of an upsurge in virus infections and time running out in the deadlocked negotiations with the EU on Brexit. Over the past three months through September 24, the iShares MSCI United Kingdom ETF, EWU, lost 5.0% on a total return [Continued…]


CIO Overview & Outlook

Author: David R. Kotok, Post Date: September 28, 2020

David R. Kotok

The second quarter of 2020 saw the worst quarterly decline in economic terms since the Great Depression of the 1930s. The US economy literally fell off the COVID cliff. This downdraft side of a very sharp “V” has already made an economic bottom. (It was foretold by the March 23 low in the stock market.) [Continued…]


Zika Pamphlet by David R. Kotok

Zika Download - Kotok

The Zika virus is mosquito-borne. The virus mutates frequently, just as all viruses do. And it can do serious damage to people. It is especially threatening to the fetus of a pregnant mother. It causes conditions, including microcephaly, which spell tragedy for the infant and the family. When it deals such damage to children, Zika imposes huge societal costs measured in the many millions of dollars. All this is documented in the writings that now constitute the chapters of this pamphlet.

https://www.cumber.com/zika/


Links to other websites or electronic media controlled or offered by Third-Parties (non-affiliates of Cumberland Advisors) are provided only as a reference and courtesy to our users. Cumberland Advisors has no control over such websites, does not recommend or endorse any opinions, ideas, products, information, or content of such sites, and makes no warranties as to the accuracy, completeness, reliability or suitability of their content. Cumberland Advisors hereby disclaims liability for any information, materials, products or services posted or offered at any of the Third-Party websites. The Third-Party may have a privacy and/or security policy different from that of Cumberland Advisors. Therefore, please refer to the specific privacy and security policies of the Third-Party when accessing their websites.

Sign up for our FREE Cumberland Market Commentaries

Cumberland Advisors Market Commentaries offer insights and analysis on upcoming, important economic issues that potentially impact global financial markets. Our team shares their thinking on global economic developments, market news and other factors that often influence investment opportunities and strategies.

Posted on: 10/17/2020 arrow Watch Video arrow
Cumberland-Advisors-Market-Update-2020-10-09

Cumberland Advisors Week in Review (Oct 05, 2020 – Oct 09, 2020)

The Cumberland Advisors Week in Review is a recap of news, commentary, and opinion from our team.

Week In Review

These are not revised assessments, and circumstances may have changed in the market from the time of original publication. We also include older commentaries that our editors have determined may be of interest to our audience. Your feedback is always welcome.

CUMBERLAND ADVISORS’ WEEKLY RECAP

As part of Cumberland Advisors’ continuous effort to maintain strong customer relationships, we offer this week’s short video discussing current market conditions and how we are positioning portfolios.

Dear Clients & Friends,

Thank you for joining Cumberland Advisors for this end-of-week update on market conditions, bonds & equities with Matt McAleer and John Mousseau, CFA.

Matt McAleer & Equities / ETFs
– Wow! Cavalry charge in the equity market!
– Let’s talk about the market as discounting mechanism
– Charts to share today
– Chart 1 – A Factor Chart and what we can take away from the data
– Russell 2000 – the 2000 smallest names out of the Russell 3000, a broad index covering most of our US Equity Market
– The Russell 2000 up 6 1/2% this week is very encouraging
– We hear over and over that the market is expensive, let’s talk about that
– Chart 2 – Relative Strength and Alternative Energy
– We’ve found some ways to play in this space where Alternative Energy is outperforming the S&P 500, hat tip to David Kotok, our CIO
-The Moose is celebrating his 20th year at Cumberland Advisors!

 

John Mousseau & Fixed Income / Munis
– This week Treasury Yields moved up again
– We think that some clarity and sentiment around the expected election outcome is leading to higher interest rates over time
– This isn’t dramatic, just removing some of the pall hanging over the market
– This fall we’ll see rollover money in the market come into play and we expect that
– Jobless claims not surprising
– We see CPI, PPI coming up
– Corporate spreads came in a little bit this week
– Fixed Income Markets grudgingly moving higher, we think it’s good in the long run for fixed income investors because higher interest rates, as long as they’re manageable over time, lead to higher reinvestment rates. And that’s a good thing.

 

Please reach out with any questions/comments you may have about this update; we appreciate your calls, comments, and emails. Watch in the player above or at this link: https://youtu.be/y5CeDWIQ1ZQ

 

Stay safe, healthy, and have a great weekend.

-Matt McAleer & Cumberland Advisors

Matt enjoys your feedback. You can reach him at:
-Link to Matt’s Email: Matthew.McAleer@Cumber.com
-Link to Matt’s Twitter: https://twitter.com/MattMcAleer4
-Link to Matt’s LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/matthew-c-mcaleer/
-Call Matt: (800) 257-7013

Other questions or comments? Email us at info@cumber.com or give us a call at (800) 257-7013.

Contact Matt or any one of our advisors by following this link: https://www.cumber.com/our-people/

 


Cumberland Advisors Market Commentary

Cumberland Advisors Market Commentary offers insights and analysis on upcoming, important economic issues that potentially impact global financial markets. Our team shares their thinking on global economic developments, market news and other factors that often influence investment opportunities and strategies. Our readers appreciate its timeliness, depth of analysis, and quality of research.

To read current and past commentaries, visit https://www.cumber.com/category/market-commentary/


Wildfires Out West

Author: Patricia Healy, CFA, Post Date: October 8, 2020

Patricia Healy, CFA

On Sunday, Bloomberg reported that this year’s California fires had scorched more ground than the last three years of fires combined. Higher temperatures and greater winds have contributed to the spread. Year-to-date, the California fires have covered 4 million acres in 8,200 fires throughout the state. Some 8,400 homes and buildings have been lost, and […]


Markets, Events, Economics

Author: David R. Kotok, Post Date: October 7, 2020

David R. Kotok

Market-moving events and data points are coming fast, and in a chaotic sequence. Here are some bullets we are watching. 1. The outlook for elections is still highly uncertain and volatile. Biden appears to be strengthening. Texas governor Greg Abbott has restricted drop boxes for absentee ballots to one per county (“Texas governor shuts down drop-off […]


Muni Bonds Turn Toward the Election

Author: John R. Mousseau, CFA, Post Date: October 6, 2020

Market Commentary - Cumberland Advisors - (Mousseau)

With the presidential election a month away, we start to mull over what the bond market might look like post-election day. While most polls have Vice-President Biden ahead by 6–7% points, we know the race has the potential to be much closer, since the 50 individual states decide the election by virtue of voting by […]


International Equity ETF Q3 Overview and Outlook

Author: William Witherell, Ph.D., Post Date: October 5, 2020

Market Commentary - Cumberland Advisors - William 'Bill' Witherell - International Equity ETF Q3 Overview and Outlook

The global economy is expected to have registered a stronger than anticipated rebound in the third quarter with record-breaking growth rates after output collapsed in the first half of the because of the COVID-19 pandemic. The reopening of businesses and the easing of lockdowns and other restrictions in many countries allowed the rapid pickup in […]


Trio to Trio with Laura Wazen

Author: David R. Kotok, Post Date: October 4, 2020

We have a medley of remarkable performances for you this Sunday – a little diversion from the daily political and pandemic fare. Let’s kick things off with a rousing flash-mob rendition of Beethoven’s Symphony No. 9, Ode to Joy, performed years before COVID-19 entered our lives. It lifts us now out of this moment and […]


Hope – An Update

Author: Robert Eisenbeis, Ph.D., Post Date: October 2, 2020

Cumberland Advisors Market Commentary - Hope – An Update - Robert-Eisenbeis, Ph.D.

Our commentary “FOMC: Hope Now Seems to Be a Strategy” (https://www.cumber.com/cumberland-advisors-market-commentary-fomc-hope-now-seems-to-be-a-strategy/) focused on the FOMC’s latest decision to keep its target for the federal funds rate between 0–.25%, to change its strategy for policy going forward to focus on shortfalls in labor markets from what the Committee perceives to be full employment, and to shift [Continued…]


Taxable Total Return 3rd Quarter Review

Author: Daniel Himelberger, Post Date: October 1, 2020

Cumberland Advisors Market Commentary - Taxable Total Return 3rd Quarter Review

Markets experienced volatility in the third quarter of 2020 as COVID-19 and the looming election continued to drive uncertainty regarding an economic rebound. The net result of the volatility left the Treasury market little changed on the quarter, while spreads on investment-grade corporates and taxable municipals continued to grind lower from the peaks set at [Continued…]


Beware of Private Equity in Retirement Plans – 3(38) Fiduciary Advisors Are Needed Instead

Author: Michael McNiven, Ph.D., Post Date: September 30, 2020

Cumberland Advisors Market Commentary - Michael McNiven, Ph.D.

Over the summer, the private equity industry received a very favorable ruling from the Department of Labor, allowing 401(k) plans to invest in private equity funds. Of course, the private equity industry and their lobbyists have long desired the opportunity to access 401(k) assets, and they are ecstatic. This opportunity opens up several trillion dollars [Continued…]


UK Facing Virus Second Wave and Brexit Deadline

Author: William Witherell, Ph.D., Post Date: September 29, 2020

Market Commentary - Cumberland Advisors - UK Facing Virus Second Wave and Brexit Deadline

United Kingdom stocks are underperforming the Eurozone markets as the nation faces the double challenges of an upsurge in virus infections and time running out in the deadlocked negotiations with the EU on Brexit. Over the past three months through September 24, the iShares MSCI United Kingdom ETF, EWU, lost 5.0% on a total return [Continued…]


CIO Overview & Outlook

Author: David R. Kotok, Post Date: September 28, 2020

David R. Kotok

The second quarter of 2020 saw the worst quarterly decline in economic terms since the Great Depression of the 1930s. The US economy literally fell off the COVID cliff. This downdraft side of a very sharp “V” has already made an economic bottom. (It was foretold by the March 23 low in the stock market.) [Continued…]


Three Super New Moons (#28)

Author: David R. Kotok, Post Date: September 27, 2020

Market Commentary - Cumberland Advisors - Three Super New Moons (#28)

Sentiment & Statistical Indicators +Three Super New Moons (Item #28) Some indicators offer guidance. None is perfect. All stimulate thinking. Here’s a sampling about economics, financial markets, health, climate, politics, and, yes, even a forecast from astrology. We’ve saved that for last (#28). 1. The misery index is a long-established statistic. It is simply adding [Continued…]


Cumberland Responds to Barron’s

Author: David R. Kotok, John R. Mousseau, CFA & Patricia Healy, CFA, Post Date: September 23, 2020

Cumberland Advisors Market Commentary - Cumberland Responds to Barron's

Many municipal entities are under extreme stress and federal help is needed now, or these entities will have to reduce staff, swelling the ranks of the unemployed across the nation and reducing municipal services at the very time that demands for those services are at record levels. [Continued…]


Wildfire: Correction and Addition

Author: David R. Kotok, Post Date: September 22, 2020

Cumberland Advisors Market Commentary - Wildfire Correction and Addition

In our recent commentary “Wildfire: More Than a Song” https://www.cumber.com/cumberland-advisors-market-commentary-wildfire-more-than-a-song/, we stated that our nation’s federally owned forests “are housed in the Department of the Interior.” That is true up to a point: The Bureau of Land Management (BLM), which is an arm of the Department of the Interior, does manage 246 million acres of [Continued…]


Trump and Puerto Rico. Better late than never.

Author: David R. Kotok, Post Date: September 21, 2020

Market Commentary Puerto Rico

With much fanfare, on Friday, Sept. 18, President Trump abruptly shifted his policy on rebuilding Puerto Rico. Where he had often disparaged the island’s leaders and opposed rebuilding a power grid and other infrastructure that was destroyed by Hurricane Maria in September 2017, Trump now claimed, “I’m the best thing that ever happened to Puerto [Continued…]


Zika Pamphlet by David R. Kotok

Zika Download - Kotok

The Zika virus is mosquito-borne. The virus mutates frequently, just as all viruses do. And it can do serious damage to people. It is especially threatening to the fetus of a pregnant mother. It causes conditions, including microcephaly, which spell tragedy for the infant and the family. When it deals such damage to children, Zika imposes huge societal costs measured in the many millions of dollars. All this is documented in the writings that now constitute the chapters of this pamphlet.

https://www.cumber.com/zika/


Links to other websites or electronic media controlled or offered by Third-Parties (non-affiliates of Cumberland Advisors) are provided only as a reference and courtesy to our users. Cumberland Advisors has no control over such websites, does not recommend or endorse any opinions, ideas, products, information, or content of such sites, and makes no warranties as to the accuracy, completeness, reliability or suitability of their content. Cumberland Advisors hereby disclaims liability for any information, materials, products or services posted or offered at any of the Third-Party websites. The Third-Party may have a privacy and/or security policy different from that of Cumberland Advisors. Therefore, please refer to the specific privacy and security policies of the Third-Party when accessing their websites.

Sign up for our FREE Cumberland Market Commentaries

Cumberland Advisors Market Commentaries offer insights and analysis on upcoming, important economic issues that potentially impact global financial markets. Our team shares their thinking on global economic developments, market news and other factors that often influence investment opportunities and strategies.

Posted on: 10/08/2020 arrow Watch Video arrow
Cumberland-Advisors-Market-Update-20201002

Cumberland Advisors Week in Review (Sept 28, 2020 – Oct 02, 2020)

The Cumberland Advisors Week in Review is a recap of news, commentary, and opinion from our team.

Week In Review

These are not revised assessments, and circumstances may have changed in the market from the time of original publication. We also include older commentaries that our editors have determined may be of interest to our audience. Your feedback is always welcome.

CUMBERLAND ADVISORS’ WEEKLY RECAP

As part of Cumberland Advisors’ continuous effort to maintain strong customer relationships, we offer this week’s short video discussing current market conditions and how we are positioning portfolios.

Dear Clients & Friends,

Thank you for joining Cumberland Advisors for this end-of-week update on market conditions, bonds & equities with Matt McAleer and John Mousseau, CFA.

Matt McAleer & Equities / ETFs
– Volatility & Risk revisited
– Headlines creates Volatility
– Structural Damage creates Risk
– What are market leaders trying to tell us? Matt details.
– Overall, indexes very solid this week
– Russell 2000 positive today – let’s keep an eye on it
– Are things better than what the headlines are telling us?
– Portfolios this week – no buys and no sells – we like what we own

 

John Mousseau & Fixed Income / Munis
– Yields down on news of President Trump and the First Lady contracting COVID-19
– They rose a little on the news that it may be a mild case
– September, a very tight trading range
– Very low volatility in the bond market
– Some companies buying back debt – a sign of a move back toward normalcy
– The election will remove one key item of uncertainty off the table
– How about Yields & Inflation? John details.
– Municipal outflows, first time in 20 weeks
– Yields are low in favor of the issuers, not the investor
– We started to play defense in bond portfolios a few weeks ago
– We hope the President and the First Lady recover quickly

 

Please reach out with any questions/comments you may have about this update; we appreciate your calls, comments, and emails. Watch in the player above or at this link: https://youtu.be/nGs2n39u8G8

 

Stay safe, healthy, and have a great weekend.

-Matt McAleer & Cumberland Advisors

Matt enjoys your feedback. You can reach him at:
-Link to Matt’s Email: Matthew.McAleer@Cumber.com
-Link to Matt’s Twitter: https://twitter.com/MattMcAleer4
-Link to Matt’s LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/matthew-c-mcaleer/
-Call Matt: (800) 257-7013

Other questions or comments? Email us at info@cumber.com or give us a call at (800) 257-7013.

Contact Matt or any one of our advisors by following this link: https://www.cumber.com/our-people/


– Upcoming Event –

Cumberland Advisors is an Annual Sponsor of
the Global Interdependence Center

Executive Briefing Webinar, AI and Machine Learning Oct 06, 2020

The on Oct. 6 features an Executive Briefing on AI and Machine Learning, with a keynote from Patrick Harker, President of the .

Registration is complimentary: https://www.interdependence.org/events/browse/analyzing-pandemics-ai-and-machine-learning/


 


Cumberland Advisors Market Commentary

Cumberland Advisors Market Commentary offers insights and analysis on upcoming, important economic issues that potentially impact global financial markets. Our team shares their thinking on global economic developments, market news and other factors that often influence investment opportunities and strategies. Our readers appreciate its timeliness, depth of analysis, and quality of research.

To read current and past commentaries, visit https://www.cumber.com/category/market-commentary/


Hope – An Update

Author: Robert Eisenbeis, Ph.D., Post Date: October 2, 2020

Cumberland Advisors Market Commentary - Hope – An Update - Robert-Eisenbeis, Ph.D.

Our commentary “FOMC: Hope Now Seems to Be a Strategy” (https://www.cumber.com/cumberland-advisors-market-commentary-fomc-hope-now-seems-to-be-a-strategy/) focused on the FOMC’s latest decision to keep its target for the federal funds rate between 0–.25%, to change its strategy for policy going forward to focus on shortfalls in labor markets from what the Committee perceives to be full employment, and to shift [Continued…]


Taxable Total Return 3rd Quarter Review

Author: Daniel Himelberger, Post Date: October 1, 2020

Cumberland Advisors Market Commentary - Taxable Total Return 3rd Quarter Review

Markets experienced volatility in the third quarter of 2020 as COVID-19 and the looming election continued to drive uncertainty regarding an economic rebound. The net result of the volatility left the Treasury market little changed on the quarter, while spreads on investment-grade corporates and taxable municipals continued to grind lower from the peaks set at [Continued…]


Beware of Private Equity in Retirement Plans – 3(38) Fiduciary Advisors Are Needed Instead

Author: Michael McNiven, Ph.D., Post Date: September 30, 2020

Cumberland Advisors Market Commentary - Michael McNiven, Ph.D.

Over the summer, the private equity industry received a very favorable ruling from the Department of Labor, allowing 401(k) plans to invest in private equity funds. Of course, the private equity industry and their lobbyists have long desired the opportunity to access 401(k) assets, and they are ecstatic. This opportunity opens up several trillion dollars [Continued…]


UK Facing Virus Second Wave and Brexit Deadline

Author: William Witherell, Ph.D., Post Date: September 29, 2020

Market Commentary - Cumberland Advisors - UK Facing Virus Second Wave and Brexit Deadline

United Kingdom stocks are underperforming the Eurozone markets as the nation faces the double challenges of an upsurge in virus infections and time running out in the deadlocked negotiations with the EU on Brexit. Over the past three months through September 24, the iShares MSCI United Kingdom ETF, EWU, lost 5.0% on a total return [Continued…]


CIO Overview & Outlook

Author: David R. Kotok, Post Date: September 28, 2020

David R. Kotok

The second quarter of 2020 saw the worst quarterly decline in economic terms since the Great Depression of the 1930s. The US economy literally fell off the COVID cliff. This downdraft side of a very sharp “V” has already made an economic bottom. (It was foretold by the March 23 low in the stock market.) [Continued…]


Three Super New Moons (#28)

Author: David R. Kotok, Post Date: September 27, 2020

Market Commentary - Cumberland Advisors - Three Super New Moons (#28)

Sentiment & Statistical Indicators +Three Super New Moons (Item #28) Some indicators offer guidance. None is perfect. All stimulate thinking. Here’s a sampling about economics, financial markets, health, climate, politics, and, yes, even a forecast from astrology. We’ve saved that for last (#28). 1. The misery index is a long-established statistic. It is simply adding [Continued…]


Cumberland Responds to Barron’s

Author: David R. Kotok, John R. Mousseau, CFA & Patricia Healy, CFA, Post Date: September 23, 2020

Cumberland Advisors Market Commentary - Cumberland Responds to Barron's

Many municipal entities are under extreme stress and federal help is needed now, or these entities will have to reduce staff, swelling the ranks of the unemployed across the nation and reducing municipal services at the very time that demands for those services are at record levels. [Continued…]


Wildfire: Correction and Addition

Author: David R. Kotok, Post Date: September 22, 2020

Cumberland Advisors Market Commentary - Wildfire Correction and Addition

In our recent commentary “Wildfire: More Than a Song” https://www.cumber.com/cumberland-advisors-market-commentary-wildfire-more-than-a-song/, we stated that our nation’s federally owned forests “are housed in the Department of the Interior.” That is true up to a point: The Bureau of Land Management (BLM), which is an arm of the Department of the Interior, does manage 246 million acres of [Continued…]


Trump and Puerto Rico. Better late than never.

Author: David R. Kotok, Post Date: September 21, 2020

Market Commentary Puerto Rico

With much fanfare, on Friday, Sept. 18, President Trump abruptly shifted his policy on rebuilding Puerto Rico. Where he had often disparaged the island’s leaders and opposed rebuilding a power grid and other infrastructure that was destroyed by Hurricane Maria in September 2017, Trump now claimed, “I’m the best thing that ever happened to Puerto [Continued…]


Wildfire: More Than a Song

Author: David R. Kotok, Post Date: September 20, 2020

Cumberland Advisors Market Commentary - Wildfire More Than a Song

Let’s begin this missive with some remarks on wildfire issues from Philippa Dunne of TLR Analytics. Philippa has vast personal experience with fires and is one of our nation’s highly skilled analysts of labor data cohorts, including firefighters. “Over the last decades, yes decades, news pieces on short-handed fire-crews losing control of western fires have [Continued…]


FOMC: Hope Now Seems to Be a Strategy

Author: Robert Eisenbeis, Ph.D., Post Date: September 18, 2020

Cumberland Advisors Market Commentary - FOMC Hope Now Seems to Be a Strategy (Eisenbeis)

The FOMC finished its September deliberations and published its first statement and Summary of Economic Projections (SEPs) since the revision of its policy strategy was announced on the eve of the Kansas City Fed’s annual August Jackson Hole Symposium. The statement began by reiterating that the FOMC stands ready to employ its full range of [Continued…]


Bipartisan House Members: “Enough Is Enough”

Author: David R. Kotok, Post Date: September 17, 2020

The bipartisan House Problem Solvers Caucus (https://problemsolverscaucus-gottheimer.house.gov), led by Reps. Josh Gottheimer (D-NJ) and Tom Reed (R-NY) includes around 50 House members, both Republicans and Democrats. They have proposed a US pandemic aid package that amounts to $1.5 trillion and continues unemployment aid at $450/week, increasing over time to $600/week but not to exceed a [Continued…]


JOLTS – July

Author: Robert Eisenbeis, Ph.D., Post Date: September 16, 2020

Cumberland Advisors' Robert "Bob" Eisenbeis, Ph.D.

The BLS Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) data come out with a lag, so we are now just getting a look at the July numbers. They do, however, help fill in some of the labor dynamics that are occurring within the economy as we adjust to the COVID-19 pandemic shock. We know that [Continued…]


The Rise of Separately Managed Accounts – 2020 Update

Author: Patricia Healy, CFA, Post Date: September 15, 2020

Cumberland has utilized separately managed accounts (SMAs) to execute its fixed-income strategy since the company’s inception in 1973, long before SMAs were popularized in the early 2000s. The reasons for managing money in this fashion are the same today as they were then: • Transparency (you know what you own) • Flexibility to make strategic [Continued…]


Bob Eisenbeis and Howard Getson discuss AI, Investing, Trading, Algorithms, and more at Camp Kotok.

Bob Eisenbeis and Howard Getson discuss AI, Investing, Trading, Algorithms, how data is a new currency, and the “mating dance of algo-bots.” Is AI positioned to replace people in investing? How about trading? Valuable insights from Camp Kotok, August 2018.

Watch here: https://youtu.be/TU4nVSxrQeI


Links to other websites or electronic media controlled or offered by Third-Parties (non-affiliates of Cumberland Advisors) are provided only as a reference and courtesy to our users. Cumberland Advisors has no control over such websites, does not recommend or endorse any opinions, ideas, products, information, or content of such sites, and makes no warranties as to the accuracy, completeness, reliability or suitability of their content. Cumberland Advisors hereby disclaims liability for any information, materials, products or services posted or offered at any of the Third-Party websites. The Third-Party may have a privacy and/or security policy different from that of Cumberland Advisors. Therefore, please refer to the specific privacy and security policies of the Third-Party when accessing their websites.

Sign up for our FREE Cumberland Market Commentaries

Cumberland Advisors Market Commentaries offer insights and analysis on upcoming, important economic issues that potentially impact global financial markets. Our team shares their thinking on global economic developments, market news and other factors that often influence investment opportunities and strategies.

Posted on: 10/03/2020 arrow Watch Video arrow
Cumberland-Advisors-Market-Update-20200925

Cumberland Advisors Week in Review (Sept 21, 2020 – Sept 25, 2020)

The Cumberland Advisors Week in Review is a recap of news, commentary, and opinion from our team.

Week In Review

These are not revised assessments, and circumstances may have changed in the market from the time of original publication. We also include older commentaries that our editors have determined may be of interest to our audience. Your feedback is always welcome.

CUMBERLAND ADVISORS’ WEEKLY RECAP

As part of Cumberland Advisors’ continuous effort to maintain strong customer relationships, we offer this week’s short video discussing current market conditions and how we are positioning portfolios.

Dear Clients & Friends,

Thank you for joining Cumberland Advisors for this end-of-week update on market conditions, bonds & equities with Matt McAleer. John Mousseau has the day off.

Matt McAleer & Equities / ETFs

– Nice volatile week!
– Volatility and Risk are not the same
– We like to use volatility to add to strong areas on weakness – Matt explains
– Opportunity shifts the risk/reward scale in your favor
– Powerful ratios can put you in strong names that withstand market headwinds – Matt details
– Matt gives quick overviews of some of our strategies and how/why we’re putting cash to work
– Thoughts on investing in Alibaba
– We talk about Life Insurance – let’s talk about dividend yields and interest rates and how it affects this instrument
– Matt asks for your input on this subject

John Mousseau & Fixed Income / Munis

– John provides where yields are
– Quiet week in munis
– We’re seeing election jitters enter markets – we’ve seen this before
– Jobless rates a little higher than expected
– Continuing jobless claims down a little
– Home sales? Rockin’!
– John talks about the bond landscape
– Airports are fairing better than convention centers and stadiums but they still “have wood to chop” before they get back to normal
– As we get closer to a vaccine, the ability to access capital markets is so important for municipal issuers
– Some good news? Looks like Pelosi and Mnuchin are hammering out an agreement for more stimulus/relief that will include relief to state and local governments
– Be sure to watch debates on coming Tuesday

Please reach out with any questions/comments you may have about this update; we appreciate your calls, comments, and emails. Watch in the player above or at this link: https://youtu.be/aTaDczA6yEc

Have a great weekend.

-Matt McAleer & Cumberland Advisors

Matt enjoys your feedback. You can reach him at:
-Link to Matt’s Email: Matthew.McAleer@Cumber.com
-Link to Matt’s Twitter: https://twitter.com/MattMcAleer4
-Link to Matt’s LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/matthew-c-mcaleer/
-Call Matt: (800) 257-7013

Other questions or comments? Email us at info@cumber.com or give us a call at (800) 257-7013.

Contact Matt or any one of our advisors by following this link: https://www.cumber.com/our-people/


IN THE NEWS

 

Politico – Wall Street braces for election chaos

Quoted: David R. Kotok | Posted on: 09/25/2020 read more

The IRA: Powell Fed Embraces Monetary Relativity

Quoted: Robert Eisenbeis | Posted on: 09/23/2020 read more

Politico – Wall Street loses altitude

Quoted: David R. Kotok | Posted on: 09/18/2020 read more

BondBuyer – Puerto Rico debt deal reaches a turning point

Quoted: Shaun Burgess | Posted on: 09/11/2020 read more

July Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS)

Quoted: David R. Kotok | Posted on: 09/09/2020 read more

Politico – Economy to dominate the stretch run

Quoted: David R. Kotok | Posted on: 09/08/2020 read more

David Kotok on the Markets (Radio)

Quoted: David R. Kotok | Posted on: 09/02/2020 read more

 


More Cumberland Advisors News here:

https://www.cumber.com/news/


 


Cumberland Advisors Market Commentary

Cumberland Advisors Market Commentary offers insights and analysis on upcoming, important economic issues that potentially impact global financial markets. Our team shares their thinking on global economic developments, market news and other factors that often influence investment opportunities and strategies. Our readers appreciate its timeliness, depth of analysis, and quality of research.

To read current and past commentaries, visit https://www.cumber.com/category/market-commentary/


Cumberland Responds to Barron’s

Author: David R. Kotok, John R. Mousseau, CFA & Patricia Healy, CFA, Post Date: September 23, 2020

Cumberland Advisors Market Commentary - Cumberland Responds to Barron's

Many municipal entities are under extreme stress and federal help is needed now, or these entities will have to reduce staff, swelling the ranks of the unemployed across the nation and reducing municipal services at the very time that demands for those services are at record levels. [Continued…]


Wildfire: Correction and Addition

Author: David R. Kotok, Post Date: September 22, 2020

Cumberland Advisors Market Commentary - Wildfire Correction and Addition

In our recent commentary “Wildfire: More Than a Song” https://www.cumber.com/cumberland-advisors-market-commentary-wildfire-more-than-a-song/, we stated that our nation’s federally owned forests “are housed in the Department of the Interior.” That is true up to a point: The Bureau of Land Management (BLM), which is an arm of the Department of the Interior, does manage 246 million acres of [Continued…]


Trump and Puerto Rico. Better late than never.

Author: David R. Kotok, Post Date: September 21, 2020

Market Commentary Puerto Rico

With much fanfare, on Friday, Sept. 18, President Trump abruptly shifted his policy on rebuilding Puerto Rico. Where he had often disparaged the island’s leaders and opposed rebuilding a power grid and other infrastructure that was destroyed by Hurricane Maria in September 2017, Trump now claimed, “I’m the best thing that ever happened to Puerto [Continued…]


Wildfire: More Than a Song

Author: David R. Kotok, Post Date: September 20, 2020

Cumberland Advisors Market Commentary - Wildfire More Than a Song

Let’s begin this missive with some remarks on wildfire issues from Philippa Dunne of TLR Analytics. Philippa has vast personal experience with fires and is one of our nation’s highly skilled analysts of labor data cohorts, including firefighters. “Over the last decades, yes decades, news pieces on short-handed fire-crews losing control of western fires have [Continued…]


FOMC: Hope Now Seems to Be a Strategy

Author: Robert Eisenbeis, Ph.D., Post Date: September 18, 2020

Cumberland Advisors Market Commentary - FOMC Hope Now Seems to Be a Strategy (Eisenbeis)

The FOMC finished its September deliberations and published its first statement and Summary of Economic Projections (SEPs) since the revision of its policy strategy was announced on the eve of the Kansas City Fed’s annual August Jackson Hole Symposium. The statement began by reiterating that the FOMC stands ready to employ its full range of [Continued…]


Bipartisan House Members: “Enough Is Enough”

Author: David R. Kotok, Post Date: September 17, 2020

The bipartisan House Problem Solvers Caucus (https://problemsolverscaucus-gottheimer.house.gov), led by Reps. Josh Gottheimer (D-NJ) and Tom Reed (R-NY) includes around 50 House members, both Republicans and Democrats. They have proposed a US pandemic aid package that amounts to $1.5 trillion and continues unemployment aid at $450/week, increasing over time to $600/week but not to exceed a [Continued…]


JOLTS – July

Author: Robert Eisenbeis, Ph.D., Post Date: September 16, 2020

Cumberland Advisors' Robert "Bob" Eisenbeis, Ph.D.

The BLS Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) data come out with a lag, so we are now just getting a look at the July numbers. They do, however, help fill in some of the labor dynamics that are occurring within the economy as we adjust to the COVID-19 pandemic shock. We know that [Continued…]


The Rise of Separately Managed Accounts – 2020 Update

Author: Patricia Healy, CFA, Post Date: September 15, 2020

Cumberland has utilized separately managed accounts (SMAs) to execute its fixed-income strategy since the company’s inception in 1973, long before SMAs were popularized in the early 2000s. The reasons for managing money in this fashion are the same today as they were then: • Transparency (you know what you own) • Flexibility to make strategic [Continued…]


Insider Trading – the Case of Energy

Author: Leo Chen, Ph.D., Post Date: September 14, 2020

Cumberland Advisors Market Commentary - Insider Trading – the Case of Energy

Our last commentary on insider trading studied post-insider-purchase-spike (PIPS) market performance (https://www.cumber.com/cumberland-advisors-market-commentary-insider-trading-what-does-it-tell-us/). We found that the 6-month market return is 13.54% on average after the insider buy/sell ratio rises above 1. Today we will demonstrate the PIPS effect using the Energy sector as an example. Undoubtedly, corporate insiders possess an informational advantage over outsiders. The [Continued…]


Florida Schools & Florida’s Businesses?

Author: David R. Kotok, Post Date: September 13, 2020

Cumberland Advisors Market Commentary - Florida Schools & Florida's Businesses

Dear snowbirds and tourists: There is no question that Florida’s businesses, restaurants, hotels, fishing guides, and theme parks need you and want you. It’s simple, our state economy depends on visitors, and we want you to come and we want you to spend your money. We’re hurting. Some have asked us about visiting us at [Continued…]


Cuba and the Caribbean: What Now?

The Economies of Cuba & Puerto Rico Explored

February 22, 2018

USF Sarasota-Manatee, Cumberland Advisors, and the Global Interdependence Center hosted a series of talks on February 22, 2018 discussing current issues involving U.S. interests and current events in the Caribbean. In this video, economists have a look at the economic state of Cuba and Puerto Rico after a series of destructive storms.


Links to other websites or electronic media controlled or offered by Third-Parties (non-affiliates of Cumberland Advisors) are provided only as a reference and courtesy to our users. Cumberland Advisors has no control over such websites, does not recommend or endorse any opinions, ideas, products, information, or content of such sites, and makes no warranties as to the accuracy, completeness, reliability or suitability of their content. Cumberland Advisors hereby disclaims liability for any information, materials, products or services posted or offered at any of the Third-Party websites. The Third-Party may have a privacy and/or security policy different from that of Cumberland Advisors. Therefore, please refer to the specific privacy and security policies of the Third-Party when accessing their websites.

Sign up for our FREE Cumberland Market Commentaries

Cumberland Advisors Market Commentaries offer insights and analysis on upcoming, important economic issues that potentially impact global financial markets. Our team shares their thinking on global economic developments, market news and other factors that often influence investment opportunities and strategies.

Posted on: 09/26/2020 arrow Watch Video arrow
Cumberland-Advisors-Market-Update-20200918

Cumberland Advisors Week in Review (Sept 14, 2020 – Sept 18, 2020)

The Cumberland Advisors Week in Review is a recap of news, commentary, and opinion from our team.

Week In Review

These are not revised assessments, and circumstances may have changed in the market from the time of original publication. We also include older commentaries that our editors have determined may be of interest to our audience. Your feedback is always welcome.

CUMBERLAND ADVISORS’ WEEKLY RECAP

As part of Cumberland Advisors’ continuous effort to maintain strong customer relationships, we offer this week’s short video discussing current market conditions and how we are positioning portfolios.

Dear Clients & Friends,

Thank you for joining Cumberland Advisors for this end-of-week update on market conditions, bonds & equities with Matt McAleer. John Mousseau has the day off.

Matt McAleer & Equities / ETFs
– Volatility this week. What’s up, what’s down, and why. Matt breaks it down.
– Strong bid into the “heavies”, pay attention to normally overlooked industries.
– The Market will never change: it’s supply & demand. Matt goes into detail.
– What we did this week.
– Financials appreciate higher rates. Matt explains why.
– Have some interesting things to share with you next week, please join us again.Please reach out with any questions/comments you may have about this update; we appreciate your calls, comments, and emails. Watch in the player above or at this link:
https://youtu.be/TARrbRkbuL0Have a great weekend.

-Matt McAleer & Cumberland Advisors

Matt enjoys your feedback. You can reach him at:
-Link to Matt’s Email: Matthew.McAleer@Cumber.com
-Link to Matt’s Twitter: https://twitter.com/MattMcAleer4
-Link to Matt’s LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/matthew-c-mcaleer/
-Call Matt: (800) 257-7013

Other questions or comments? Email us at info@cumber.com or give us a call at (800) 257-7013.

Contact Matt or any one of our advisors by following this link: https://www.cumber.com/our-people/


IN THE NEWS

Politico-David-Kotok-20200918

Excerpt from…

Wall Street loses altitude

By BEN WHITE and AUBREE ELIZA WEAVER – 09/18/2020

Wall Street loses some altitude — Since peaking early this month around 29,000, the Dow has sagged back over 1,000 points amid signs of some economic slowing and the lack of any fresh stimulus out of Washington.

The next big inflection point for markets is likely the emergence of a Covid-19 vaccine, the prospect of which is keeping a bottom under any sell-offs (along with all the massive help from the Fed). When a real, tested and safe vaccine does emerge, it could catalyze another big rally.

Cumberland’s David Kotok emails: “The federal funding in advance and the production funding in advance has removed years of risk taking from pharma and transferred it to the US taxpayers. Never have we had such a risk transfer in public health. That is why we will have a 50-70 percent effective vaccine in distribution within a year. Risk transfer means acceleration of growth and upward markets are ahead.”

Read the full story at Politico: https://www.politico.com/newsletters/morning-money/2020/09/18/wall-street-loses-altitude-790478


More Cumberland Advisors News here:

https://www.cumber.com/news/


Upcoming Event

Cumberland Advisors is an Annual Sponsor of

the Global Interdependence Center

GIC - Monetary Policy with James Bullard, Ph.D.

GIC’s next Executive Briefing will explore monetary policy with James Bullard, Ph.D., President and CEO of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. Join them Thursday, September 24 at 12:00 p.m. ET.

Complimentary registration: https://bit.ly/33DvgLX


Cumberland Advisors Market Commentary

Cumberland Advisors Market Commentary offers insights and analysis on upcoming, important economic issues that potentially impact global financial markets. Our team shares their thinking on global economic developments, market news and other factors that often influence investment opportunities and strategies. Our readers appreciate its timeliness, depth of analysis, and quality of research.

To read current and past commentaries, visit https://www.cumber.com/category/market-commentary/


FOMC: Hope Now Seems to Be a Strategy

Author: Robert Eisenbeis, Ph.D., Post Date: September 18, 2020

Cumberland Advisors Market Commentary - FOMC Hope Now Seems to Be a Strategy (Eisenbeis) The FOMC finished its September deliberations and published its first statement and Summary of Economic Projections (SEPs) since the revision of its policy strategy was announced on the eve of the Kansas City Fed’s annual August Jackson Hole Symposium. The statement began by reiterating that the FOMC stands ready to employ its full range of […]


Bipartisan House Members: “Enough Is Enough”

Author: David R. Kotok, Post Date: September 17, 2020

The bipartisan House Problem Solvers Caucus (https://problemsolverscaucus-gottheimer.house.gov), led by Reps. Josh Gottheimer (D-NJ) and Tom Reed (R-NY) includes around 50 House members, both Republicans and Democrats. They have proposed a US pandemic aid package that amounts to $1.5 trillion and continues unemployment aid at $450/week, increasing over time to $600/week but not to exceed a […]


JOLTS – July

Author: Robert Eisenbeis, Ph.D., Post Date: September 16, 2020

Cumberland Advisors' Robert "Bob" Eisenbeis, Ph.D. The BLS Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) data come out with a lag, so we are now just getting a look at the July numbers. They do, however, help fill in some of the labor dynamics that are occurring within the economy as we adjust to the COVID-19 pandemic shock. We know that […]


The Rise of Separately Managed Accounts – 2020 Update

Author: Patricia Healy, CFA, Post Date: September 15, 2020

Cumberland has utilized separately managed accounts (SMAs) to execute its fixed-income strategy since the company’s inception in 1973, long before SMAs were popularized in the early 2000s. The reasons for managing money in this fashion are the same today as they were then: • Transparency (you know what you own) • Flexibility to make strategic […]


Insider Trading – the Case of Energy

Author: Leo Chen, Ph.D., Post Date: September 14, 2020

Cumberland Advisors Market Commentary - Insider Trading – the Case of Energy Our last commentary on insider trading studied post-insider-purchase-spike (PIPS) market performance (https://www.cumber.com/cumberland-advisors-market-commentary-insider-trading-what-does-it-tell-us/). We found that the 6-month market return is 13.54% on average after the insider buy/sell ratio rises above 1. Today we will demonstrate the PIPS effect using the Energy sector as an example. Undoubtedly, corporate insiders possess an informational advantage over outsiders. The […]


Florida Schools & Florida’s Businesses?

Author: David R. Kotok, Post Date: September 13, 2020

Cumberland Advisors Market Commentary - Florida Schools & Florida's Businesses Dear snowbirds and tourists: There is no question that Florida’s businesses, restaurants, hotels, fishing guides, and theme parks need you and want you. It’s simple, our state economy depends on visitors, and we want you to come and we want you to spend your money. We’re hurting. Some have asked us about visiting us at […]


9/11 & COVID-19

Author: David R. Kotok, Post Date: September 11, 2020

Cumberland Advisors Market Commentary - 911 & COVID-19

Nineteen years ago, September 11, 2001: 7:59 am: American Airlines Flight 11 departed Boston for Los Angeles. 8:14 am: United Airlines Flight 175 departed Boston for Los Angeles. 8:20 am: American Airlines Flight 77 departed Washington DC for Los Angeles. 8:42 am: United Airlines Flight 93 departed Newark for San Francisco. 8:46 am: American Airlines […]


Art Cashin’s Wisdom

Author: David R. Kotok, Post Date: September 10, 2020

Cumberland Advisors Market Commentary - Art Cashin’s Wisdom

Art Cashin, a UBS stalwart and CNBC commentator from the NYSE floor, is a dear friend and marvelous and sensitive gentleman. He is revered by those who know him as the dean of the investment university called the American stock market. Art was kind enough to give us permission to share his morning missive (September […]


The Second Wave of COVID-19 Confronts Western Europe

Author: William Witherell, Ph.D., Post Date: September 9, 2020

CA-Market-Commentary-The Second Wave of COVID-19 Confronts Western Europe

The rebound in the European economies following the sharp fall in March and April is threatened by a second wave of COVID-19 cases. As a result of vacation travel and an easing of restrictions, case growth in Western Europe has returned to levels last seen in May, with 1,094,194 confirmed cases as of the end […]


Labor Markets

Author: Robert Eisenbeis, Ph.D., Post Date: September 8, 2020

Cumberland Advisors' Robert "Bob" Eisenbeis, Ph.D.

In most data releases during the pandemic, it is possible to find some things that are positive and some that are negative, and the extent to which one thing is emphasized over another tends to be influenced in today’s world by politics. The new CES jobs report released by BLS is no exception. There is […]


Echoes of 1968

Author: David R. Kotok, Post Date: September 6, 2020

Market Commentary - Cumberland Advisors - Echoes of 1968

Brent Donnelly is a good friend and fellow camper at Leen’s Lodge. He is also a highly respected senior FX dealer at HSBC New York and the author of The Art of Currency Trading and the daily FX commentary AM/FX. On September 3, Brent penned “Echoes of ’68,” a thought-provoking comparison of the years 1968 […]


Crown Fires

Author: David R. Kotok, Post Date: September 3, 2020

Cumberland Advisors Market Commentary - Crown Fires

A COVID-19 resurgence seems about to begin. Schools reopening will be one of the vectors.  Please take time to listen to this August 27 podcast by Dr. Michael Osterholm, director of CIDRAP, the University of Minnesota’s Center for Infectious Disease Research and Policy. He entitles this episode “Crazy Days,” after the title of a song, […]


 

Links to other websites or electronic media controlled or offered by Third-Parties (non-affiliates of Cumberland Advisors) are provided only as a reference and courtesy to our users. Cumberland Advisors has no control over such websites, does not recommend or endorse any opinions, ideas, products, information, or content of such sites, and makes no warranties as to the accuracy, completeness, reliability or suitability of their content. Cumberland Advisors hereby disclaims liability for any information, materials, products or services posted or offered at any of the Third-Party websites. The Third-Party may have a privacy and/or security policy different from that of Cumberland Advisors. Therefore, please refer to the specific privacy and security policies of the Third-Party when accessing their websites.

Sign up for our FREE Cumberland Market Commentaries

Cumberland Advisors Market Commentaries offer insights and analysis on upcoming, important economic issues that potentially impact global financial markets. Our team shares their thinking on global economic developments, market news and other factors that often influence investment opportunities and strategies.

Posted on: 09/19/2020 arrow Watch Video arrow
Cumberland-Advisors-Market-Update-20200911

Cumberland Advisors Week in Review (Sept 07, 2020 – Sept 11, 2020)

The Cumberland Advisors Week in Review is a recap of news, commentary, and opinion from our team.

Week In Review

These are not revised assessments, and circumstances may have changed in the market from the time of original publication. We also include older commentaries that our editors have determined may be of interest to our audience. Your feedback is always welcome.

CUMBERLAND ADVISORS’ WEEKLY RECAP

As part of Cumberland Advisors’ continuous effort to maintain strong customer relationships, we offer this week’s short video discussing current market conditions and how we are positioning portfolios.

Dear Clients & Friends,

Thank you for joining Cumberland Advisors for this end-of-week update on market conditions, bonds & equities with Matt McAleer and John Mousseau, CFA.

This week:

Matt McAleer & Equities / ETFs
-Somber September 11 anniversary today
-S&P down 3-3.25% on the week
-I previously shared a chart showing that the internals of the market were starting to roll over a little bit
-Advanced declines were getting soft even though indexes in the third week of August were hitting year to date highs
-It told us to be a little cautious – Matt explains
-Basic Materials and Transports have something to tell us
-Matt talks about some pullbacks and Cumberland strategies that raised cash
-What about International and relative strength?
-Europe? Asia? Drilling down to China & Japan.
-Charts below referenced in the video.

ONE MONTH CHART

One Month Chart
  

THREE MONTH CHART

Three Month Performance

John Mousseau & Fixed Income / Munis
-I encourage you to read David Kotok’s commentary today on his experience at the World Trade Center on 9/11
-I was at the firm that day and recall what David describes vividly
-9/11 commentary link: https://www.cumber.com/cumberland-advisors-market-commentary-9-11-covid-19/
-Treasury Yield declined small amount
-Jobless claims were a little disappointing
-Good news? New claims were under a million.
-CPI creeped up from 1.6 to 1.7, we expect eventually 2-2.4 which it had been for a number of years
-Quiet week for Munis for this holiday week
-We see visible supply moving from 12 to 15 billion next week
-Traditionally, this time of year is when supply starts to build
-We expect some decent buying opportunities going into fall
-John shares some observations about travel in the Midwest and attitudes about the economy
-We wish everyone a good weekend and a somber remembrance this September 11th

 

Please reach out with any questions/comments you may have about this update; we appreciate your calls, comments, and emails. Watch in the player above or at this link: https://youtu.be/-LLhhzmrPuE

Stay safe, healthy, and have a great weekend.

-Matt McAleer & Cumberland Advisors

Matt enjoys your feedback. You can reach him at:
-Link to Matt’s Email: Matthew.McAleer@Cumber.com
-Link to Matt’s Twitter: https://twitter.com/MattMcAleer4
-Link to Matt’s LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/matthew-c-mcaleer/
-Call Matt: (800) 257-7013

Other questions or comments? Email us at info@cumber.com or give us a call at (800) 257-7013.

Contact Matt or any one of our advisors by following this link: https://www.cumber.com/our-people/


IN THE NEWS

Cumberland Advisors In The News


Upcoming Event

Cumberland Advisors is an Annual Sponsor of

the Global Interdependence Center

Executive Briefing Webinar, COVID-19 and Climate Change - Sept 15 1280w

GIC’s next Executive Briefing will explore COVID-19 and Climate Change with Bob Bunting, the CEO of the Climate Adaptation and Mitigation Center. Learn how hurricanes, heat waves, and forest fires have continued their worrying trends and why it’s time to move forward with adaptation and mitigation until global solutions emerge in the decades ahead. Moderated by GIC Chair, Kathleen Stephansen, Senior Economist for Haver Analytics and Trustee of EQAT Trust Funds.

Tuesday, September 15, 2020 | 4:00 – 5:00 p.m. ET, via Zoom.

No-cost registration here: https://buff.ly/2Rk2eLF


Cumberland Advisors Market Commentary

Cumberland Advisors Market Commentary offers insights and analysis on upcoming, important economic issues that potentially impact global financial markets. Our team shares their thinking on global economic developments, market news and other factors that often influence investment opportunities and strategies. Our readers appreciate its timeliness, depth of analysis, and quality of research.

To read current and past commentaries, visit https://www.cumber.com/category/market-commentary/


9/11 & COVID-19

Author: David R. Kotok, Post Date: September 11, 2020

Cumberland Advisors Market Commentary - 911 & COVID-19

Nineteen years ago, September 11, 2001: 7:59 am: American Airlines Flight 11 departed Boston for Los Angeles. 8:14 am: United Airlines Flight 175 departed Boston for Los Angeles. 8:20 am: American Airlines Flight 77 departed Washington DC for Los Angeles. 8:42 am: United Airlines Flight 93 departed Newark for San Francisco. 8:46 am: American Airlines […]


Art Cashin’s Wisdom

Author: David R. Kotok, Post Date: September 10, 2020

Cumberland Advisors Market Commentary - Art Cashin’s Wisdom

Art Cashin, a UBS stalwart and CNBC commentator from the NYSE floor, is a dear friend and marvelous and sensitive gentleman. He is revered by those who know him as the dean of the investment university called the American stock market. Art was kind enough to give us permission to share his morning missive (September […]


The Second Wave of COVID-19 Confronts Western Europe

Author: William Witherell, Ph.D., Post Date: September 9, 2020

CA-Market-Commentary-The Second Wave of COVID-19 Confronts Western Europe

The rebound in the European economies following the sharp fall in March and April is threatened by a second wave of COVID-19 cases. As a result of vacation travel and an easing of restrictions, case growth in Western Europe has returned to levels last seen in May, with 1,094,194 confirmed cases as of the end […]


Labor Markets

Author: Robert Eisenbeis, Ph.D., Post Date: September 8, 2020

Cumberland Advisors' Robert "Bob" Eisenbeis, Ph.D.

In most data releases during the pandemic, it is possible to find some things that are positive and some that are negative, and the extent to which one thing is emphasized over another tends to be influenced in today’s world by politics. The new CES jobs report released by BLS is no exception. There is […]


Echoes of 1968

Author: David R. Kotok, Post Date: September 6, 2020

Market Commentary - Cumberland Advisors - Echoes of 1968

Brent Donnelly is a good friend and fellow camper at Leen’s Lodge. He is also a highly respected senior FX dealer at HSBC New York and the author of The Art of Currency Trading and the daily FX commentary AM/FX. On September 3, Brent penned “Echoes of ’68,” a thought-provoking comparison of the years 1968 […]


Crown Fires

Author: David R. Kotok, Post Date: September 3, 2020

Cumberland Advisors Market Commentary - Crown Fires

A COVID-19 resurgence seems about to begin. Schools reopening will be one of the vectors.  Please take time to listen to this August 27 podcast by Dr. Michael Osterholm, director of CIDRAP, the University of Minnesota’s Center for Infectious Disease Research and Policy. He entitles this episode “Crazy Days,” after the title of a song, […]


Living with Risk: The COVID-19 Iceberg

Author: , Post Date: August 31, 2020

Market Commentary - Cumberland Advisors - Living with Risk The COVID-19 Iceberg

Steve Sexauer and I spent about an hour discussing a superb paper he coauthored with Laurence Siegel. I recommend it to readers. It will give investors and decision makers some perspective on how to navigate through the COVID-19 shock and out the other side. Here’s the link. https://blogs.cfainstitute.org/investor/2020/08/20/living-with-risk-the-covid-19-iceberg/ Below is an excerpt that the authors […]


Why the US has a COVID Data Crisis

Author: David R. Kotok, Post Date: August 30, 2020

Cumberland Advisors Market Commentary - Why the US has a COVID Data Crisis

Congratulations to all. We’ve now endured and survived two political conventions. According to various pollsters, we’re mostly unchanged in our political views. We have witnessed two starkly contrasting and totally scripted messages. And we’ve had two hurricanes and massive wildfires, on top of COVID-19, to remind us that Mother Nature ignores politicians. We humans are […]


FOMC and Revisions to Its Longer-Run Policy Strategy

Author: Robert Eisenbeis, Ph.D., Post Date: August 28, 2020

Market Commentary - Cumberland Advisors - FOMC and Revisions to Its Longer-Run Policy Strategy

On the day of Chairman Powell’s opening speech for this year’s virtual annual Jackson Hole Economic Policy Symposium, hosted by the Kansas City Fed, the Federal Reserve released an update to its January 2012 “Statement on Longer-Run Goals and Monetary Policy Strategy.” This commentary describes the changes in the strategy and discusses what may be […]


Hurricanes

Author: David R. Kotok, Post Date: August 27, 2020

David R. Kotok

In the Indian Ocean they are called cyclones, in the Pacific Ocean, typhoons. The latter term comes from the Chinese tai fung, which translates as “great wind.” The Kʼicheʼ Mayans called their god of wind, storm, and fire Hurakan. European colonists adopted the word, and it became hurricane. (Source: A Furious Sky: The Five-Hundred-Year History of America’s […]


Insider Trading—What Does It Tell Us?*

Author: Leo Chen, Ph.D., Post Date: August 26, 2020

Market Commentary - Cumberland Advisors - Insider Trading (Leo Chen)

Insider trading often refers to acting on material nonpublic information. However, when company employees buy and sell their own stocks, it is also called insider trading, which is permitted by the SEC. We will only discuss the second type of insider trading today. As many investors have wondered, is it a fair game for outsiders […]


9/11 Tribute in Light 2020


 


 

Links to other websites or electronic media controlled or offered by Third-Parties (non-affiliates of Cumberland Advisors) are provided only as a reference and courtesy to our users. Cumberland Advisors has no control over such websites, does not recommend or endorse any opinions, ideas, products, information, or content of such sites, and makes no warranties as to the accuracy, completeness, reliability or suitability of their content. Cumberland Advisors hereby disclaims liability for any information, materials, products or services posted or offered at any of the Third-Party websites. The Third-Party may have a privacy and/or security policy different from that of Cumberland Advisors. Therefore, please refer to the specific privacy and security policies of the Third-Party when accessing their websites.

Sign up for our FREE Cumberland Market Commentaries

Cumberland Advisors Market Commentaries offer insights and analysis on upcoming, important economic issues that potentially impact global financial markets. Our team shares their thinking on global economic developments, market news and other factors that often influence investment opportunities and strategies.

Posted on: 09/12/2020 arrow Watch Video arrow
Cumberland-Advisors-Market-Update-20200904

Cumberland Advisors Week in Review (Aug 31, 2020 – Sept 04, 2020)

The Cumberland Advisors Week in Review is a recap of news, commentary, and opinion from our team.

Week In Review

These are not revised assessments, and circumstances may have changed in the market from the time of original publication. We also include older commentaries that our editors have determined may be of interest to our audience. Your feedback is always welcome.

CUMBERLAND ADVISORS’ WEEKLY RECAP

As part of Cumberland Advisors’ continuous effort to maintain strong customer relationships, we offer this week’s short video discussing current market conditions and how we are positioning portfolios.

Dear Clients & Friends,

Thank you for joining Cumberland Advisors for this end-of-week update on market conditions, bonds & equities with Matt McAleer and John Mousseau, CFA.

This week:

Matt McAleer on ETFs & Equities

-Good dose of volatility this week
-Pullback on Thursday/Friday in S&P 500 & NASDAQ
-In prior video we mention that the “air” had gotten a little thin
-We noticed speculative put/call ratios being blown out on the call side
-Wednesday, we acted on a sell signal in our volatility strategies (these are short term trading strategies)
-It worked out well (doesn’t always, did this time)
-Pullbacks are not unexpected
-We have cash at various levels depending on the strategies
-We want to buy strong trends on pullbacks, so we look for opportunities relating to our “want to buy” equity & ETF list
-We want to see a shift of risk-reward in our favor – Matt explains
-Japan has traded well after a 25 year nap
-China? Politics aside we look at them as an index of companies and their risk-reward opportunities
Impressive employment report
-Reminder: We don’t trade the economy, we trade securities.
-One doesn’t fall in line with the other but we want to analyze what each are doing
-Have a great Labor Day weekend!

 

John Mousseau’s Update on the Fixed Income Market

-10 & 30yr bonds up 6 & 7 basis pts today alone reflecting good numbers today
-Better than expected unemployment numbers
-Lots of work left to be done
-Muni yields up a little this week
-Barron’s article this week outlined some muni challenges ahead
-We expect to see a stimulus bill from congress at some point

-A vaccine will change the perception of growth rates going forward
-Vaccine may be as early as November
-We’re looking next week at CPI, PPI, and initial jobless claims, hoping for positive trends

Please reach out with any questions/comments you may have about this update; we appreciate your calls, comments, and emails. Watch in the player above or at this link: https://youtu.be/6YIrnu4BWdc

Stay safe, healthy, and have a great Labor Day weekend.

-Matt McAleer & Cumberland Advisors

Matt enjoys your feedback. You can reach him at:
-Link to Matt’s Email: Matthew.McAleer@Cumber.com
-Link to Matt’s Twitter: https://twitter.com/MattMcAleer4
-Link to Matt’s LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/matthew-c-mcaleer/
-Call Matt: (800) 257-7013

Other questions or comments? Email us at info@cumber.com or give us a call at (800) 257-7013.

Contact Matt or any one of our advisors by following this link: https://www.cumber.com/our-people/


IN THE NEWS

Cumberland Advisors In The News

WaPo – In a bleak economy, these companies are flourishing

Quoted: David R. Kotok | Posted on: 08/15/2020 read more

Camp Kotok: Maine Woods, Economists & Wine

Quoted: David R. Kotok | Posted on: 08/08/2020 read more


Cumberland Advisors Market Commentary

Cumberland Advisors Market Commentary offers insights and analysis on upcoming, important economic issues that potentially impact global financial markets. Our team shares their thinking on global economic developments, market news and other factors that often influence investment opportunities and strategies. Our readers appreciate its timeliness, depth of analysis, and quality of research.

To read current and past commentaries, visit https://www.cumber.com/category/market-commentary/


Crown Fires

Author: David R. Kotok, Post Date: September 3, 2020

Cumberland Advisors Market Commentary - Crown Fires

A COVID-19 resurgence seems about to begin. Schools reopening will be one of the vectors.  Please take time to listen to this August 27 podcast by Dr. Michael Osterholm, director of CIDRAP, the University of Minnesota’s Center for Infectious Disease Research and Policy. He entitles this episode “Crazy Days,” after the title of a song, […]


Living with Risk: The COVID-19 Iceberg

Author: , Post Date: August 31, 2020

Market Commentary - Cumberland Advisors - Living with Risk The COVID-19 Iceberg

Steve Sexauer and I spent about an hour discussing a superb paper he coauthored with Laurence Siegel. I recommend it to readers. It will give investors and decision makers some perspective on how to navigate through the COVID-19 shock and out the other side. Here’s the link. https://blogs.cfainstitute.org/investor/2020/08/20/living-with-risk-the-covid-19-iceberg/ Below is an excerpt that the authors […]


Why the US has a COVID Data Crisis

Author: David R. Kotok, Post Date: August 30, 2020

Cumberland Advisors Market Commentary - Why the US has a COVID Data Crisis

Congratulations to all. We’ve now endured and survived two political conventions. According to various pollsters, we’re mostly unchanged in our political views. We have witnessed two starkly contrasting and totally scripted messages. And we’ve had two hurricanes and massive wildfires, on top of COVID-19, to remind us that Mother Nature ignores politicians. We humans are […]


FOMC and Revisions to Its Longer-Run Policy Strategy

Author: Robert Eisenbeis, Ph.D., Post Date: August 28, 2020

Market Commentary - Cumberland Advisors - FOMC and Revisions to Its Longer-Run Policy Strategy

On the day of Chairman Powell’s opening speech for this year’s virtual annual Jackson Hole Economic Policy Symposium, hosted by the Kansas City Fed, the Federal Reserve released an update to its January 2012 “Statement on Longer-Run Goals and Monetary Policy Strategy.” This commentary describes the changes in the strategy and discusses what may be […]


Hurricanes

Author: David R. Kotok, Post Date: August 27, 2020

David R. Kotok

In the Indian Ocean they are called cyclones, in the Pacific Ocean, typhoons. The latter term comes from the Chinese tai fung, which translates as “great wind.” The Kʼicheʼ Mayans called their god of wind, storm, and fire Hurakan. European colonists adopted the word, and it became hurricane. (Source: A Furious Sky: The Five-Hundred-Year History of America’s […]


Insider Trading—What Does It Tell Us?*

Author: Leo Chen, Ph.D., Post Date: August 26, 2020

Market Commentary - Cumberland Advisors - Insider Trading (Leo Chen)

Insider trading often refers to acting on material nonpublic information. However, when company employees buy and sell their own stocks, it is also called insider trading, which is permitted by the SEC. We will only discuss the second type of insider trading today. As many investors have wondered, is it a fair game for outsiders […]


LIBOR vs. SOFR

Author: David R. Kotok, Post Date: August 24, 2020

Market Commentary - Cumberland Advisors - LIBOR vs. SOFR

My friend Christopher Whalen has written an excellent commentary on the ongoing debate about LIBOR versus SOFR (the secured overnight funding rate). Here’s the link to his publicly available essay: https://www.theinstitutionalriskanalyst.com/post/libor-is-dead-long-live-sofr-really. We recommend Chris’s analysis as a “five-star must-read” for any investor, banker, credit officer, analyst, or student of monetary economics and policy. LIBOR still […]


Beveridge Curves

Author: David R. Kotok, Post Date: August 23, 2020

Beveridge Curves Aug 2020

 

We’ve prepared a series of Beveridge curve graphics so that readers can see the dramatic changes in the composition and direction of various labor-force-related measures. We are using a visual Beveridge curve approach. The charts (30 of them) are available from our website. Below is the link. https://cumber.com/pdf/Beveridge-Curves-Covid-Aug-2020.pdf The 30 charts are graphic and dramatic […]


Japan’s Economy, Stocks, and Corporate Governance

Author: William Witherell, Ph.D., Post Date: August 20, 2020
Market Commentary - Cumberland Advisors - Japan’s Economy, Stocks, and Corporate Governance

The Japanese economy, the globe’s third largest (following those of the US and China), shrank by a record 7.8% in the second quarter. This decline was less than the 9.5% fall in the US economy and the 10.1% drop in the German economy. However, it was more than double neighboring South Korea’s 3.3% drop. Taiwan’s […]


Inflation?

Author: Robert Eisenbeis, Ph.D., Post Date: August 19, 2020
Cumberland Advisors' Robert "Bob" Eisenbeis, Ph.D.

During an August 14, 2020, lecture at the Center for Financial Stability, Charles Goodhart (former member of the Bank of England’s Monetary Policy Committee and professor at the London School of Economics) mused about the US’s current economic slowdown and the prospects for inflation that might result because of the extraordinary increase in the money […]


Rare Earth Rewind

Rare earth minerals have been getting a lot of attention lately. We looked at this area of high potential in the 2018 market commentary, “Marcus Island.”

Marcus Island & Rare Earth Minerals

Originally published April 2018 – An isolated Pacific island barely big enough to accommodate an airstrip has gained global importance. Some 787 miles east of South Iwo Jima, Marcus Island, or as the Japanese call it, Minami-Tori-shima (also spelled, “Minamitori”), meaning “Southern Bird Island,” is the southernmost island under Japanese governance and within the Japanese economic security zone. In its history Marcus Island has been under American sovereignty and governance and Japanese sovereignty and governance. So why is this fleck of land in the vast Pacific now so important?

Rare earth minerals. Full story: https://www.cumber.com/marcus-island/


 

Links to other websites or electronic media controlled or offered by Third-Parties (non-affiliates of Cumberland Advisors) are provided only as a reference and courtesy to our users. Cumberland Advisors has no control over such websites, does not recommend or endorse any opinions, ideas, products, information, or content of such sites, and makes no warranties as to the accuracy, completeness, reliability or suitability of their content. Cumberland Advisors hereby disclaims liability for any information, materials, products or services posted or offered at any of the Third-Party websites. The Third-Party may have a privacy and/or security policy different from that of Cumberland Advisors. Therefore, please refer to the specific privacy and security policies of the Third-Party when accessing their websites.

Sign up for our FREE Cumberland Market Commentaries

Cumberland Advisors Market Commentaries offer insights and analysis on upcoming, important economic issues that potentially impact global financial markets. Our team shares their thinking on global economic developments, market news and other factors that often influence investment opportunities and strategies.

Posted on: 09/05/2020 arrow Watch Video arrow
Cumberland-Advisors-Market-Update-20200828

Cumberland Advisors Week in Review (Aug 24, 2020 – Aug 28, 2020)

The Cumberland Advisors Week in Review is a recap of news, commentary, and opinion from our team.

Week In Review

These are not revised assessments, and circumstances may have changed in the market from the time of original publication. We also include older commentaries that our editors have determined may be of interest to our audience. Your feedback is always welcome.

CUMBERLAND ADVISORS’ WEEKLY RECAP

As part of Cumberland Advisors’ continuous effort to maintain strong customer relationships, we offer this week’s short video discussing current market conditions and how we are positioning portfolios.

Dear Clients & Friends,

Thank you for joining Cumberland Advisors for this end-of-week update on market conditions, bonds & equities with Matt McAleer and John Mousseau, CFA.

This week:

Matt McAleer on ETFs & Equities

-I provide a chart for your perusal
-It covers the performance of major market ETFs (data through Aug 25, 2020)
-Software has had a monster week, a monster month, with names like Microsoft, Salesforce, Adobe sticking out
-These companies and their software have really driven efficiencies in our businesses and personal lives
-Marc Andreessen is an American entrepreneur, investor, and software engineer.
– In 2011, Andreessen famously penned, “Why Software Is Eating The World” where he presented a vision of the future. He stipulated that software disrupts the future and predicted more and more businesses and industries adopting software and delivering online services over the next 10 years
-Here we are in year 9 and we can see all the disruption and innovation by software
-Hardware used to be the backbone of tech, but now it’s software that’s become the lifeblood in our business environment today.
-We’ve see liquidity in the markets find a home in the growth area
-We’re seeing the bid in value sticking, giving us some breath in the market
-Formulate 5 or 10 names on a list as “buy on pullback” opportunities

John Mousseau’s Update on the Fixed Income Market

-Rising Stock Market and rising yields
-Inflation expectation rising slightly
-10yr & 30yr T-Bonds saw a rise this week, a signal that the investing community is expecting better times ahead
-Durable goods and consumer spending higher
-Disappointing so many are still out of work
-Expectations for bond yields are going up
-Next week: looking to see continued trend in bond market and we’ll be watching the unemployment number

Please reach out with any questions/comments you may have about this update; we appreciate your calls, comments, and emails. Watch this week’s video in the player above or at this link: https://youtu.be/yZ4V2pMTIAk

Stay safe, healthy, and have a great weekend.

-Matt McAleer & Cumberland Advisors

Matt enjoys your feedback. You can reach him at:
-Link to Matt’s Email: Matthew.McAleer@Cumber.com
-Link to Matt’s Twitter: https://twitter.com/MattMcAleer4
-Link to Matt’s LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/matthew-c-mcaleer/
-Call Matt: (800) 257-7013

Other questions or comments? Email us at info@cumber.com or give us a call at (800) 257-7013.

Contact Matt or any one of our advisors by following this link: https://www.cumber.com/our-people/


IN THE NEWS

Cumberland Advisors In The News

WaPo – In a bleak economy, these companies are flourishing

Quoted: David R. Kotok | Posted on: 08/15/2020 read more

Camp Kotok: Maine Woods, Economists & Wine

Quoted: David R. Kotok | Posted on: 08/08/2020 read more

Highlands News Sun – COVID-19: Florida vs. Taiwan

Quoted: David R. Kotok | Posted on: 08/08/2020 read more

Barron’s – July Jobs Report: Better Than Expected, Better Than Feared

Quoted: William Witherell, Ph.D. | Posted on: 08/07/2020 read more


Cumberland Advisors Market Commentary

Cumberland Advisors Market Commentary offers insights and analysis on upcoming, important economic issues that potentially impact global financial markets. Our team shares their thinking on global economic developments, market news and other factors that often influence investment opportunities and strategies. Our readers appreciate its timeliness, depth of analysis, and quality of research.

To read current and past commentaries, visit https://www.cumber.com/category/market-commentary/


FOMC and Revisions to Its Longer-Run Policy Strategy

Author: Robert Eisenbeis, Ph.D., Post Date: August 28, 2020

Market Commentary - Cumberland Advisors - FOMC and Revisions to Its Longer-Run Policy Strategy On the day of Chairman Powell’s opening speech for this year’s virtual annual Jackson Hole Economic Policy Symposium, hosted by the Kansas City Fed, the Federal Reserve released an update to its January 2012 “Statement on Longer-Run Goals and Monetary Policy Strategy.” This commentary describes the changes in the strategy and discusses what may be […]


Hurricanes

Author: David R. Kotok, Post Date: August 27, 2020

David R. Kotok In the Indian Ocean they are called cyclones, in the Pacific Ocean, typhoons. The latter term comes from the Chinese tai fung, which translates as “great wind.” The Kʼicheʼ Mayans called their god of wind, storm, and fire Hurakan. European colonists adopted the word, and it became hurricane. (Source: A Furious Sky: The Five-Hundred-Year History of America’s […]


Insider Trading—What Does It Tell Us?*

Author: Leo Chen, Ph.D., Post Date: August 26, 2020

Market Commentary - Cumberland Advisors - Insider Trading (Leo Chen)Insider trading often refers to acting on material nonpublic information. However, when company employees buy and sell their own stocks, it is also called insider trading, which is permitted by the SEC. We will only discuss the second type of insider trading today. As many investors have wondered, is it a fair game for outsiders […]


LIBOR vs. SOFR

Author: David R. Kotok, Post Date: August 24, 2020

Market Commentary - Cumberland Advisors - LIBOR vs. SOFR My friend Christopher Whalen has written an excellent commentary on the ongoing debate about LIBOR versus SOFR (the secured overnight funding rate). Here’s the link to his publicly available essay: https://www.theinstitutionalriskanalyst.com/post/libor-is-dead-long-live-sofr-really. We recommend Chris’s analysis as a “five-star must-read” for any investor, banker, credit officer, analyst, or student of monetary economics and policy. LIBOR still […]


Beveridge Curves

Author: David R. Kotok, Post Date: August 23, 2020

Beveridge Curves Aug 2020

We’ve prepared a series of Beveridge curve graphics so that readers can see the dramatic changes in the composition and direction of various labor-force-related measures. We are using a visual Beveridge curve approach. The charts (30 of them) are available from our website. Below is the link. https://cumber.com/pdf/Beveridge-Curves-Covid-Aug-2020.pdf The 30 charts are graphic and dramatic […]


Japan’s Economy, Stocks, and Corporate Governance

Author: William Witherell, Ph.D., Post Date: August 20, 2020
Market Commentary - Cumberland Advisors - Japan’s Economy, Stocks, and Corporate Governance

The Japanese economy, the globe’s third largest (following those of the US and China), shrank by a record 7.8% in the second quarter. This decline was less than the 9.5% fall in the US economy and the 10.1% drop in the German economy. However, it was more than double neighboring South Korea’s 3.3% drop. Taiwan’s […]


Inflation?

Author: Robert Eisenbeis, Ph.D., Post Date: August 19, 2020
Cumberland Advisors' Robert "Bob" Eisenbeis, Ph.D.

During an August 14, 2020, lecture at the Center for Financial Stability, Charles Goodhart (former member of the Bank of England’s Monetary Policy Committee and professor at the London School of Economics) mused about the US’s current economic slowdown and the prospects for inflation that might result because of the extraordinary increase in the money […]


Diverse Political Views & Markets

Author: , Post Date: August 17, 2020
Market Commentary - Cumberland Advisors - Diverse Political Views & Markets

The US presidential race may be tighter than many think. Let’s survey diverse perspectives on the race, its issues, and its market implications, starting with Nate Silver’s August 16 analysis at FiveThirtyEight. 1. Nate Silver explains his thesis, that a Trump win cannot be counted out: “While the polls have been stable so far this […]


Sunday Report: Gainesville Party Responses

Author: , Post Date: August 16, 2020
Market Commentary - Cumberland Advisors - Sunday Report Gainesville Party Responses

On July 29, I posed questions to readers in a commentary titled “US Stock Market Sectors and Gainesville, Florida,” https://www.cumber.com/cumberland-advisors-market-commentary-us-stock-market-sectors-gainesville-florida/. News had just broken about University of Florida Health anesthesiology residents and one fellow who had contracted COVID-19 infections at an off-campus party (“18 in UF Health anesthesiology contract virus after party,” https://www.gainesville.com/news/20200727/18-in-uf-health-anesthesiology-contract-virus-after-party). I asked, “Should the school […]


Zika & COVID-19: We Need Action Now!

Author: David R. Kotok, Post Date: August 14, 2020
Market Commentary - Cumberland Advisors - Zika & COVID-19- We Need Action Now

Dear Readers: This is an appeal to Democrats, Republicans, and Independents, House Members and Senators, and including those on the far right and on the far left of American politics. The nation needs you to set aside the partisan politics. Students, their teachers, businesses, investors, the retired, the unemployed, the charities, state and local governments, […]


Interest Rates and Yield Curve Control, Part 2

Author: , Post Date: August 13, 2020
Market Commentary - Cumberland Advisors - Interest Rates and Yield Curve Control, Part 2
This is part 2 in a series on interest rates and yield curve controls. Here’s the link to part 1: https://www.cumber.com/cumberland-advisors-market-commentary-interest-rates-and-yield-curve-control-part-1/ First, we want to thank BCA Research and our friend Caroline Miller, Chief Strategist at BCA, for permission to share their charts. At Cumberland, we use BCA Research. My colleague John Mousseau and I […]

A Quick Look at Job Creation

Author: Robert Eisenbeis, Ph.D., Post Date: August 11, 2020
Market Commentary - Cumberland Advisors - A Quick Look at Job Creation (Eisenbeis)

Each month, the BLS produces a wealth of data from both its household survey and its establishment survey. The latter, in particular, gives us a view of where jobs are actually being created during this terrible pandemic. Normally, the data widely cited from these surveys are seasonally adjusted, but for our purposes we will look […]


Managing Hurricane Risk in a Bond Portfolio

Author: John R. Mousseau, CFA & Patricia Healy, CFA, Post Date: August 10, 2020
Market Commentary - Cumberland Advisors - Managing Hurricane Risk in a Bond Portfolio
The Northeast continues to clean up from Hurricane Isaias, which swept up the Atlantic coast to New York and parts of New England on Thursday. Below is a slide from a presentation by our good friend Tom Doe, who heads up Municipal Market Advisors (http://www.mma-research.com). Tom’s firm does in-depth quantitative and qualitative research on the […]

Sarasota Chamber Small Business Awards

Greater Sarasota Chamber Frank G. Berlin, Sr. Small Business Awards

Cumberland Advisors was the 2019 Professional Services Business of the Year winner, and we’re happy to share and congratulate this year’s 2020 Frank G. Berlin Sr. Small Business Award winners from the Greater Sarasota Chamber.

Story at Sarasota Herald Tribune: https://www.heraldtribune.com/story/business/2020/08/28/small-businesses-feted-sarasota-chamber-commerce/5647676002/


Links to other websites or electronic media controlled or offered by Third-Parties (non-affiliates of Cumberland Advisors) are provided only as a reference and courtesy to our users. Cumberland Advisors has no control over such websites, does not recommend or endorse any opinions, ideas, products, information, or content of such sites, and makes no warranties as to the accuracy, completeness, reliability or suitability of their content. Cumberland Advisors hereby disclaims liability for any information, materials, products or services posted or offered at any of the Third-Party websites. The Third-Party may have a privacy and/or security policy different from that of Cumberland Advisors. Therefore, please refer to the specific privacy and security policies of the Third-Party when accessing their websites.

Sign up for our FREE Cumberland Market Commentaries

Cumberland Advisors Market Commentaries offer insights and analysis on upcoming, important economic issues that potentially impact global financial markets. Our team shares their thinking on global economic developments, market news and other factors that often influence investment opportunities and strategies.

Posted on: 08/29/2020 arrow Watch Video arrow
cumber map
Cumberland Advisors® is registered with the SEC under the Investment Advisers Act of 1940. All information contained herein is for informational purposes only and does not constitute a solicitation or offer to sell securities or investment advisory services. Such an offer can only be made in the states where Cumberland Advisors is either registered or is a Notice Filer or where an exemption from such registration or filing is available. New accounts will not be accepted unless and until all local regulations have been satisfied. This presentation does not purport to be a complete description of our performance or investment services. Please feel free to forward our commentaries (with proper attribution) to others who may be interested. It is not our intention to state or imply in any manner that past results and profitability is an indication of future performance. All material presented is compiled from sources believed to be reliable. However, accuracy cannot be guaranteed.
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