TV Appearances

Cumberland-Advisors-Matt-McAleer-Update-December-27-2019

Cumberland Advisors Week in Review (Dec 23, 2019 – Dec 27, 2019)

The Cumberland Advisors Week in Review is a recap of news, commentary, and opinion from our team.

Week In Review

These are not revised assessments, and circumstances may have changed in the market from the time of original publication. We also include older commentaries that our editors have determined may be of interest to our audience. Your feedback is always welcome.

CUMBERLAND ADVISORS’ WEEKLY RECAP

As part of Cumberland Advisors’ continuous effort to maintain strong customer relationships, we offer this week’s short video discussing current market conditions and how we are positioning portfolios.

 

Matt McAleer is on deck to share his week in trading with you along with other thoughts.
* Can’t ask for anything more from the broad indexes/sectors across the board
* Even defensive sectors in this rally are acting well
* Good performance in strategies
* Long term risk-reward appears positive
* What concerns us? Sentiment. Equity-only put-call ratios.
* We used to call equity-only put-call ratio speculators, “Janis Joplins” because they were “Busted flat in Baton Rouge”
* Why “Janis Joplins”? Matt explains!
* Is there anything you’d like us to discuss?
* Feel free to forward our videos to other traders and investors that might find them helpful.

Watch in the video player above or at this link: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=o5VwjVapUbY

Have a great weekend and thank you for joining us at Cumberland Advisors.

-Matt McAleer

Matt enjoys your feedback. You can reach him at:
-Link to Matt’s Email: Matthew.McAleer@Cumber.com
-Link to Matt’s Twitter: https://twitter.com/MattMcAleer4
-Link to Matt’s LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/matthew-c-mcaleer/
-Call Matt: (800) 257-7013

Other questions or comments? Email us at info@cumber.com or give us a call at (800) 257-7013.

 


IN THE NEWS

Quoted: David R. Kotok – 12/27/2019

Quoted: David R. Kotok – 12/24/2019

Quoted: John R. Mousseau, CFA – 12/18/2019

Quoted: David R. Kotok – 12/16/2019

Quoted: David R. Kotok – 12/11/2019


Cumberland Advisors Chairman David Kotok discusses London businesses and markets amid Brexit tensions. He also discusses China and how global markets and trade have changed.


MARKET COMMENTARY


David R. Kotok offers this ongoing series of “Year-End & 2020 Forecast Notes” for your consideration.Market Commentary - Cumberland Advisors - Year-End-&-2020-Forecast-Notes

Cumberland Advisors Market Commentary – Year-End & 2020 Forecast Note #7 More gun violence

Author: David R. Kotok, Post Date: December 26, 2019

This holiday season has come with ill tidings with respect to gun violence: “At least 28 people were wounded in 3 separate shootings across these 3 states this weekend,” CNN, Dec. 23, 2019, https://www.cnn.com/2019/12/23/us/three-shootings-baltimore-minnesota-chicago/index.html “13 people were shot at a Chicago house party honoring a man killed earlier this year,” CNN, Dec. 22, 2019, https://www.cnn.com/2019/12/22/us/chicago-shooting-sunday/index.html [Continued…]

Cumberland Advisors Market Commentary – Year-End & 2020 Forecast Note #4: Inflation

Author: David R. Kotok, Post Date: December 6, 2019

The outlook for inflation and for inflation-sensitive financial instruments is still highly uncertain. Note that this prognosis includes TIPS on the bond side and certain inflation-sensitive stock groups on the equity side. The world’s mature economies have been trying to get inflation up to 2% or higher for many years. They’ve had no success. An [Continued…]

Cumberland Advisors Market Commentary – Year-End & 2020 Forecast Note #3: Potential Volatility Driven by US Politics

Author: David R. Kotok, Post Date: December 5, 2019

US politics will be a closely watched, bubbling pot in 2020, and the media will boil over every news item. That said, it is Super Tuesday (March 3) which becomes the key date for Democrats. Republican challengers to Trump seem to be non-starters as best as we can determine. Perhaps the New Hampshire or Massachusetts [Continued…]

Cumberland Advisors Market Commentary – Year-End & 2020 Forecast Note #2: A Vulnerable Trajectory for Stock Prices

Author: David R. Kotok, Post Date: December 4, 2019

In addition to Trade War uncertainty, US stock markets must grapple with problematic earnings estimates for 2020. Typical year-start estimates are higher than actual outcomes, as a bias toward optimism appears around the year-end holiday time. A good example is 2019, when year-start estimates for the S&P 500 were in the $174–178 range. The actual [Continued…]


The MoneyShow Orlando 2020


John Mousseau at the Money Show Orlando

John R. Mousseau, CFA, will be joining a large gathering of members of Wall Street’s financial community in Orlando this winter season for The MoneyShow Orlando 2020. The three days of the conference will focus on new investment ideas that address the current economic and geopolitical environment and will feature tools, strategies, and advice which may help you better position your portfolio.

John will be a featured speaker, giving a review of the bond market in the past year (2019) and what we should expect from the bond market in a presidential election year.

To join John in February 2020 or learn more, please visit: https://conferences.moneyshow.com/moneyshow-orlando/


Author: David R. Kotok, Post Date: December 20, 2019

Impeachment, Markets, NIRP, Clark Gable

In the famous 1939 movie Gone with the Wind, Scarlet O’Hara (Vivien Leigh) delivers this poignant entreaty to Rhett Butler (Clark Gable): “Where shall I go? What shall I do?” Rhett counters with the retort, “Frankly, my dear, I don’t give a damn.” A blockbuster line delivered in just seconds, it has endured for decades. [Continued…]


Collecting toys for girls & boys!

Some of the Cumberland Crew pose with toys we’ve collected that will benefit the 12th Judicial Circuit of Florida’s Guardian ad Litem program. Happy Holidays to you from all of us at Cumberland Advisors!
Cumberland Advisors Toy Drive



Links to other websites or electronic media controlled or offered by Third-Parties (non-affiliates of Cumberland Advisors) are provided only as a reference and courtesy to our users. Cumberland Advisors has no control over such websites, does not recommend or endorse any opinions, ideas, products, information, or content of such sites, and makes no warranties as to the accuracy, completeness, reliability or suitability of their content. Cumberland Advisors hereby disclaims liability for any information, materials, products or services posted or offered at any of the Third-Party websites. The Third-Party may have a privacy and/or security policy different from that of Cumberland Advisors. Therefore, please refer to the specific privacy and security policies of the Third-Party when accessing their websites.

Sign up for our FREE Cumberland Market Commentaries

Cumberland Advisors Market Commentaries offer insights and analysis on upcoming, important economic issues that potentially impact global financial markets. Our team shares their thinking on global economic developments, market news and other factors that often influence investment opportunities and strategies.

Posted on: 12/28/2019 arrow Watch Video arrow
Cumberland-Advisors-Week-in-Review-December-20-2019

Cumberland Advisors Week in Review (Dec 16, 2019 – Dec 20, 2019)

The Cumberland Advisors Week in Review is a recap of news, commentary, and opinion from our team.

Week In Review

These are not revised assessments, and circumstances may have changed in the market from the time of original publication. We also include older commentaries that our editors have determined may be of interest to our audience. Your feedback is always welcome.

CUMBERLAND ADVISORS’ WEEKLY RECAP

As part of Cumberland Advisors’ continuous effort to maintain strong customer relationships, we offer this week’s short video discussing current market conditions and how we are positioning portfolios.


 

This week, David R. Kotok and Matt McAleer set the stage for John R. Mousseau to cap the week and year for Bonds and Equities.

Watch in the video player above or at this link: https://youtu.be/Waj12ftYuHE

Would you like to leave a comment for John or David? Contact them or any one of our advisors by following this link: https://www.cumber.com/our-people/

Have a great weekend and thank you for joining us at Cumberland Advisors.

Matt enjoys your feedback. You can reach him at:
-Link to Matt’s Email: Matthew.McAleer@Cumber.com
-Link to Matt’s Twitter: https://twitter.com/MattMcAleer4
-Link to Matt’s LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/matthew-c-mcaleer/
-Call Matt: (800) 257-7013

Or email us at info@cumber.com or give us a call at (800) 257-7013




Cumberland Advisors Market Commentary – Impeachment, Markets, NIRP, Clark Gable

Author: David R. Kotok, Post Date: December 20, 2019

Impeachment, Markets, NIRP, Clark Gable

 

In the famous 1939 movie Gone with the Wind, Scarlet O’Hara (Vivien Leigh) delivers this poignant entreaty to Rhett Butler (Clark Gable): “Where shall I go? What shall I do?” Rhett counters with the retort, “Frankly, my dear, I don’t give a damn.” A blockbuster line delivered in just seconds, it has endured for decades. [Continued…]


Cumberland Advisors Market Commentary – New Trends in Charitable Giving & Declining Confidence in Institutions Examined

Author: Gabriel Hament, Post Date: December 19, 2019

Market Commentary - Cumberland Advisors - New Trends in Charitable Giving & Declining Confidence in Institutions Examined by Gabriel Hament

Over the last few decades, trust in key public institutions has been eroding. Here are some recent figures compiled by Gallup that document this trend: In 1973, 42% of respondents said that they had a “great deal or quite a lot” of confidence in Congress. In 2019, only 11% expressed that level of confidence. In [Continued…]


Cumberland Advisors Market Commentary – Paul Volcker

Author: David R. Kotok, Post Date: December 18, 2019

Market Commentary - Cumberland Advisors - Paul Volcker Quote (David R. Kotok)

Many have written, interviewed, and commented about the passing of Paul Volcker. We particularly like the commentary of Chris Whalen, who knew him better than many and whose family had connections with Paul Volcker over the years. We also note our GIC colleague Catherine Mann’s remembrance. Cathy, that was an interesting haircut “back when.” At [Continued…]


Cumberland Advisors Market Commentary – FOMC ZZZZZZZZZZZZ

Author: Robert Eisenbeis, Ph.D., Post Date: December 16, 2019

Federal Reserve - FOMC “Boring” was how commentators on at least one network characterized the FOMC’s December 11th decision to hold rates constant. It was, in fact, a no-brainer decision given the strong labor market, which created 266 thousand jobs in November; strong consumer spending based upon the Black Friday and Cyber Monday sales data; an unemployment rate at [Continued…]




Bloomberg Surveillance: Negative Interest Rates with Kotok (Radio Podcast)

Author: David R. Kotok, Post Date: November 27, 2019

Cumberland Advisors’ David R. Kotok talks about negative interest rates, NIRP, and says the European Central Bank’s (ECB) Christine Lagarde has a difficult task right now.

Cumberland's David Kotok on Bloomberg Radio

He also discusses China, the pork shortage, and the impact of viruses on the global food supply.

Running time 25:02, David is introduced at the 10:45 mark – Play Episode: https://www.bloomberg.com/news/audio/2019-11-27/surveillance-negative-interest-rates-with-kotok-podcast

Also see David’s Nov 25, 2019 commentary on NIRP: https://www.cumber.com/cumberland-advisors-market-commentary-nirp-lagarde-trump-dickens-holidays/


In Case You Missed It…

Ghana, Healthcare Delivery, and Sustainable Philanthropy

Author: Michael McNiven, Post Date: September 20, 2012

We had the opportunity to attend the Global Interdependence Center’s conference in Accra, Ghana in partnership with Sanford Health, the largest rural healthcare provider in the US, with headquarters in Sioux Falls, South Dakota. Sanford Health is a not-for-profit system that operates over 37 hospitals, clinics, and services in the North Dakota, South Dakota, western Minnesota, northwest Iowa, and northeast Nebraska geographical area. Sanford Health has also launched its Sanford World Clinics effort, to provide primary-care services in multiple locations around the globe.

Earth - Africa

Issues of health and wellness can be profound and truly impactful to individuals and nations. The conference was specifically focused on the issue of providing a sustainable model for permanent healthcare infrastructure. The intent of the organizers and the participants was to discuss specific and real methods for alleviating human suffering, to improve the human condition, and to do good in the world. Featured speakers at the conference included representatives from the Ghana Ministry of Health (www.moh-ghana.org), the Ghana National Health Insurance Scheme (NHIS – www.nhis.gov.gh), the Women’s World Health Initiative (WWHI – focuses on maternal health, with emphasis in Senegal; www.wwhi.org), USAID in Ghana (http://ghana.usaid.gov), DocuTap (a provider of electronic medical records (www.docutap.com), and Sanford Health (www.sanfordhealth.org). Attendees included GIC members, American Chamber of Commerce in Ghana personnel, local business owners, church officials, and other Ghanaian citizens and organizations interested in healthcare issues. We encourage readers to explore these organizations’ websites to see the interesting and varied work they do.

The dialogue was vigorous as various approaches and topics were explored. It was clear that a need exists to regularly convene such dialogues among the stakeholders, both regionally and beyond. [Continued…]

 


Links to other websites or electronic media controlled or offered by Third-Parties (non-affiliates of Cumberland Advisors) are provided only as a reference and courtesy to our users. Cumberland Advisors has no control over such websites, does not recommend or endorse any opinions, ideas, products, information, or content of such sites, and makes no warranties as to the accuracy, completeness, reliability or suitability of their content. Cumberland Advisors hereby disclaims liability for any information, materials, products or services posted or offered at any of the Third-Party websites. The Third-Party may have a privacy and/or security policy different from that of Cumberland Advisors. Therefore, please refer to the specific privacy and security policies of the Third-Party when accessing their websites.

Sign up for our FREE Cumberland Market Commentaries

Cumberland Advisors Market Commentaries offer insights and analysis on upcoming, important economic issues that potentially impact global financial markets. Our team shares their thinking on global economic developments, market news and other factors that often influence investment opportunities and strategies.

Posted on: 12/21/2019 arrow Watch Video arrow
Cumberland-Advisors-Week-in-Review-December-13-2019-Video-Thumbnail

Cumberland Advisors Week in Review (Dec 09, 2019 – Dec 13, 2019)

The Cumberland Advisors Week in Review is a recap of news, commentary, and opinion from our team.

Week In Review

These are not revised assessments, and circumstances may have changed in the market from the time of original publication. We also include older commentaries that our editors have determined may be of interest to our audience. Your feedback is always welcome.

CUMBERLAND ADVISORS’ WEEKLY RECAP

As part of Cumberland Advisors’ continuous effort to maintain strong customer relationships, we offer this week’s short video discussing current market conditions and how we are positioning portfolios.

 

This week, we talk about how we trade news and noise.

After 3 years of BREXIT worry and 18 months of China negotiations, we’ve got a little resolution. However…
-We don’t trade BREXIT
-We don’t trade GDP
-We don’t trade economic numbers
-We trade securities – Matt explains

We look at charts, SPY, our cash levels, sectors showing good relative strength vs SPY, International, Bonds (Fixed Income) and more.

So, how do we trade news and noise? We have to look at, not what the news is, but how the market trades on that news.

Watch in the video player above or at this link: https://youtu.be/ZVKXUHbwSYE

Have a great weekend and thank you for joining us at Cumberland Advisors.

-Matt McAleer

Matt enjoys your feedback. You can reach him at:
-Link to Matt’s Email: Matthew.McAleer@Cumber.com
-Link to Matt’s Twitter: https://twitter.com/MattMcAleer4
-Link to Matt’s LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/matthew-c-mcaleer/
-Call Matt: (800) 257-7013

Other questions or comments? Email us at info@cumber.com or give us a call at (800) 257-7013.

 


IN THE NEWS

Healthcare & Energy Assets Poised to Outperform: (Bloomberg Radio Podcast)

Quoted: David R. Kotok | Posted on: 12/11/2019

The Bond Buyer – State credits stable in 2020 outlook

Quoted:Patricia Healy, CFA – 12/06/2019

Media – Press Coverage for the Fourth Annual Financial Literacy Day: Understanding Global Markets and Finance Event at USF Sarasota-Manatee

Quoted:Cumberland Advisors – 12/05/2019

Barron’s – Are Trump’s New Trade Threats Just the Art of the Deal? Analysts See Reason to Worry

Quoted:David R. Kotok – 12/05/2019

Business Observer & Sarasota Magazine – Cumberland Advisors Names Todd Engelhardt Regional Director of Investments

Quoted:Todd Engelhardt – 12/05/2019

CNN Business – Tariff Man keeps coming back because trade wars aren’t easy to win

Quoted:David R. Kotok – 12/03/2019


Cumberland Advisors Chairman David Kotok discusses London businesses and markets amid Brexit tensions. He also discusses China and how global markets and trade have changed.


MARKET COMMENTARY


David R. Kotok offers this ongoing series of “Year-End & 2020 Forecast Notes” for your consideration.

Market Commentary - Cumberland Advisors - Year-End-&-2020-Forecast-Notes

Cumberland Advisors Market Commentary – Year-End & 2020 Forecast Note #4: Inflation

Author: David R. Kotok, Post Date: December 6, 2019

The outlook for inflation and for inflation-sensitive financial instruments is still highly uncertain. Note that this prognosis includes TIPS on the bond side and certain inflation-sensitive stock groups on the equity side. The world’s mature economies have been trying to get inflation up to 2% or higher for many years. They’ve had no success. An [Continued…]

Cumberland Advisors Market Commentary – Year-End & 2020 Forecast Note #3: Potential Volatility Driven by US Politics

Author: David R. Kotok, Post Date: December 5, 2019

US politics will be a closely watched, bubbling pot in 2020, and the media will boil over every news item. That said, it is Super Tuesday (March 3) which becomes the key date for Democrats. Republican challengers to Trump seem to be non-starters as best as we can determine. Perhaps the New Hampshire or Massachusetts [Continued…]

Cumberland Advisors Market Commentary – Year-End & 2020 Forecast Note #2: A Vulnerable Trajectory for Stock Prices

Author: David R. Kotok, Post Date: December 4, 2019

In addition to Trade War uncertainty, US stock markets must grapple with problematic earnings estimates for 2020. Typical year-start estimates are higher than actual outcomes, as a bias toward optimism appears around the year-end holiday time. A good example is 2019, when year-start estimates for the S&P 500 were in the $174–178 range. The actual [Continued…]


The MoneyShow Orlando 2020


John Mousseau at the Money Show Orlando

John R. Mousseau, CFA, will be joining a large gathering of members of Wall Street’s financial community in Orlando this winter season for The MoneyShow Orlando 2020. The three days of the conference will focus on new investment ideas that address the current economic and geopolitical environment and will feature tools, strategies, and advice which may help you better position your portfolio.

John will be a featured speaker, giving a review of the bond market in the past year (2019) and what we should expect from the bond market in a presidential election year.

To join John in February 2020 or learn more, please visit: https://conferences.moneyshow.com/moneyshow-orlando/


 


Collecting toys for girls & boys!

Some of the Cumberland Crew pose with toys we’ve collected that will benefit the 12th Judicial Circuit of Florida’s Guardian ad Litem program. There are currently more than 1,500 children from throughout Sarasota, Manatee and DeSoto counties who have been removed from their homes due to no fault of their own and as such, appointed a Guardian ad Litem. We’re proud to support this program and the children in our community.
Cumberland Advisors Toy Drive
Thanks to everyone that participates in community service projects, you make the world a better place!!!

Cumberland Advisors Chairman David Kotok discusses London businesses and markets amid Brexit tensions. He also discusses China and how global markets and trade have changed.


Links to other websites or electronic media controlled or offered by Third-Parties (non-affiliates of Cumberland Advisors) are provided only as a reference and courtesy to our users. Cumberland Advisors has no control over such websites, does not recommend or endorse any opinions, ideas, products, information, or content of such sites, and makes no warranties as to the accuracy, completeness, reliability or suitability of their content. Cumberland Advisors hereby disclaims liability for any information, materials, products or services posted or offered at any of the Third-Party websites. The Third-Party may have a privacy and/or security policy different from that of Cumberland Advisors. Therefore, please refer to the specific privacy and security policies of the Third-Party when accessing their websites.

Sign up for our FREE Cumberland Market Commentaries

Cumberland Advisors Market Commentaries offer insights and analysis on upcoming, important economic issues that potentially impact global financial markets. Our team shares their thinking on global economic developments, market news and other factors that often influence investment opportunities and strategies.

Posted on: 12/14/2019 arrow Watch Video arrow
Cumberland-Advisors-Week-in-Review-December-06-2019-Video-Thumbnail

Cumberland Advisors Week in Review (Dec 02, 2019 – Dec 06, 2019)

The Cumberland Advisors Week in Review is a recap of news, commentary, and opinion from our team.

Week In Review

These are not revised assessments, and circumstances may have changed in the market from the time of original publication. We also include older commentaries that our editors have determined may be of interest to our audience. Your feedback is always welcome.

CUMBERLAND ADVISORS’ WEEKLY RECAP

As part of Cumberland Advisors’ continuous effort to maintain strong customer relationships, we offer this week’s short video discussing current market conditions and how we are positioning portfolios.


 

Employment report out today. Nice surprise!

This week, we talk about:

-Bonds, inflation, and the yield curve
-Do we see a buying opportunity?
-Equities – Growth, Value, and some comparisons
-When the market starts to rally, money’s chasing growth
-The Employment Report
-Lingering Trade War effects?

Watch in the video player above or at this link: https://youtu.be/eYiWAn4Bzik

Have a great weekend and thank you for joining us at Cumberland Advisors.

Matt enjoys your feedback. You can reach him at:
-Link to Matt’s Email: Matthew.McAleer@Cumber.com
-Link to Matt’s Twitter: https://twitter.com/MattMcAleer4
-Link to Matt’s LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/matthew-c-mcaleer/
-Call Matt: (800) 257-7013

Or email us at info@cumber.com or give us a call at (800) 257-7013




David R. Kotok offers this ongoing series of “Year-End & 2020 Forecast Notes” for your consideration. More to come!

Market Commentary - Cumberland Advisors - Year-End-&-2020-Forecast-Notes

Cumberland Advisors Market Commentary – Year-End & 2020 Forecast Note #4: Inflation

Author: David R. Kotok, Post Date: December 6, 2019

The outlook for inflation and for inflation-sensitive financial instruments is still highly uncertain. Note that this prognosis includes TIPS on the bond side and certain inflation-sensitive stock groups on the equity side. The world’s mature economies have been trying to get inflation up to 2% or higher for many years. They’ve had no success. An [Continued…]

Cumberland Advisors Market Commentary – Year-End & 2020 Forecast Note #3: Potential Volatility Driven by US Politics

Author: David R. Kotok, Post Date: December 5, 2019

US politics will be a closely watched, bubbling pot in 2020, and the media will boil over every news item. That said, it is Super Tuesday (March 3) which becomes the key date for Democrats. Republican challengers to Trump seem to be non-starters as best as we can determine. Perhaps the New Hampshire or Massachusetts [Continued…]

Cumberland Advisors Market Commentary – Year-End & 2020 Forecast Note #2: A Vulnerable Trajectory for Stock Prices

Author: David R. Kotok, Post Date: December 4, 2019

In addition to Trade War uncertainty, US stock markets must grapple with problematic earnings estimates for 2020. Typical year-start estimates are higher than actual outcomes, as a bias toward optimism appears around the year-end holiday time. A good example is 2019, when year-start estimates for the S&P 500 were in the $174–178 range. The actual [Continued…]


The MoneyShow Orlando 2020


John Mousseau at the Money Show Orlando

John R. Mousseau, CFA, will be joining a large gathering of members of Wall Street’s financial community in Orlando this winter season for The MoneyShow Orlando 2020. The three days of the conference will focus on new investment ideas that address the current economic and geopolitical environment and will feature tools, strategies, and advice which may help you better position your portfolio.

John will be a featured speaker, giving a review of the bond market in the past year (2019) and what we should expect from the bond market in a presidential election year.

To join John in February 2020 or learn more, please visit: https://conferences.moneyshow.com/moneyshow-orlando/


Bloomberg Surveillance: Negative Interest Rates with Kotok (Radio Podcast)

Author: David R. Kotok, Post Date: November 27, 2019

Cumberland Advisors’ David R. Kotok talks about negative interest rates, NIRP, and says the European Central Bank’s (ECB) Christine Lagarde has a difficult task right now.

Cumberland's David Kotok on Bloomberg Radio

He also discusses China, the pork shortage, and the impact of viruses on the global food supply.

Running time 25:02, David is introduced at the 10:45 mark – Play Episode: https://www.bloomberg.com/news/audio/2019-11-27/surveillance-negative-interest-rates-with-kotok-podcast

Also see David’s Nov 25, 2019 commentary on NIRP: https://www.cumber.com/cumberland-advisors-market-commentary-nirp-lagarde-trump-dickens-holidays/


Collecting toys for the girls and boys! Sarasota County Sheriff’s Office is hosting its third annual holiday toy drive benefiting the 12th Judicial Circuit of Florida’s Guardian ad Litem program and we’re participating at our Sarasota, FL office. Info here: https://bit.ly/2OO8f2I
Pictured in our photo are Cumberland Advisors’ Patricia Healy & Todd Engelhardt with our first round of toys. Thank you to all supporters!
Closer to our Vineland, NJ office? Cumberland County Technical Education Center’s Interact Club has partnered with the Vineland Salvation Army for its eighth annual Holiday Toy Drive. More info: https://bit.ly/2qkd7TS
Thanks to everyone that participates in community service projects, you make the world a better place!!!

In Case You Missed It…

Reflections on Mumbai and What It Might Mean

Author: Bob Eisenbeis, Post Date: December 4, 2008

Several years ago I had an occasion to go on a mission for the IMF to the Central Bank of India, headquartered in Mumbai. It was the second week of December, so it was past the rainy season and the weather was warm, with temperatures in the high 80s and low 90s. That India is the scene of so many incidents of unrest and violence should not be surprising. The wide disparity of income plus the long history of the caste system and discrimination against various ethnic and religious groups is a hard legacy to shake. Poverty hits you even as you land at the airport in Mumbai. At the end of the runway were many acres of tents made out of black plastic garbage bags, which were homes to many. It hits you again on the drive into the city from the airport. A similar sight awaits you in downtown Mumbai from the Central Bank of India, which overlooked a similar several-acre tent city.

Because it was the dry season, work had begun on road repairs. Instead of dump trucks, however, I saw on the way in from the airport many women dressed in colorful saris, each with a basket of dirt on her head, performing the dump trucks’ tasks. [Continued…]


Links to other websites or electronic media controlled or offered by Third-Parties (non-affiliates of Cumberland Advisors) are provided only as a reference and courtesy to our users. Cumberland Advisors has no control over such websites, does not recommend or endorse any opinions, ideas, products, information, or content of such sites, and makes no warranties as to the accuracy, completeness, reliability or suitability of their content. Cumberland Advisors hereby disclaims liability for any information, materials, products or services posted or offered at any of the Third-Party websites. The Third-Party may have a privacy and/or security policy different from that of Cumberland Advisors. Therefore, please refer to the specific privacy and security policies of the Third-Party when accessing their websites.

Sign up for our FREE Cumberland Market Commentaries

Cumberland Advisors Market Commentaries offer insights and analysis on upcoming, important economic issues that potentially impact global financial markets. Our team shares their thinking on global economic developments, market news and other factors that often influence investment opportunities and strategies.

Posted on: 12/07/2019 arrow Watch Video arrow
Market Commentary - Cumberland Advisors - Week in Review - Weekend Recap

Cumberland Advisors Week in Review (Nov 25, 2019 – Nov 29, 2019)

The Cumberland Advisors Week in Review is a recap of news, commentary, and opinion from our team.

Week In Review

These are not revised assessments, and circumstances may have changed in the market from the time of original publication. We also include older commentaries that our editors have determined may be of interest to our audience. Your feedback is always welcome.

CUMBERLAND ADVISORS’ WEEKLY RECAP

As part of Cumberland Advisors’ continuous effort to maintain strong customer relationships, we offer this week’s short video discussing current market conditions and how we are positioning portfolios.


 

Welcome back from Thanksgiving!

This week, we talk about:

-What might be coming up next week that could be a cause for concern
-What we see this week in the market that we liked, including
—Small Cap & Mid Cap continue their bid (they had been poor relative performers vs. S&P/Large Cap)
—Biotech in particular had a nice bid this week
-On the international scene, the August bottom in Europe looks like it’s holding
—Much of the negative rates we’ve seen have improved
-Asia may continue to win/lose, reacting to trade talks
-Pullbacks

Watch in the video player above or at this link: https://youtu.be/yVz47LfUHuw

Have a great weekend and thank you for joining us at Cumberland Advisors.

Matt enjoys your feedback. You can reach him at:
-Link to Matt’s Email: Matthew.McAleer@Cumber.com
-Link to Matt’s Twitter: https://twitter.com/MattMcAleer4
-Link to Matt’s LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/matthew-c-mcaleer/
-Call Matt: (800) 257-7013

Or email us at info@cumber.com or give us a call at (800) 257-7013


FAANG stocks hit hard by U.S.-China trade war

Yahoo Finance Highlight: The trade war rages on

Yahoo Finance Highlight: The trade war rages on Nov 22, 2019

Watch the video from Yahoo Finance at this link: https://finance.yahoo.com/video/trade-war-rages-141444340.html

Yahoo Finance’s Adam Shapiro, Julie Hyman, Dan Roberts and Cumberland Advisors Chairman & CIO David Kotok discuss how the trade war has ruined relations between the U.S. and China and how [Continued…]


Cumberland Advisors Market Commentary – UK Voters’ Dilemma: Johnson or Corbyn?

Author: William Witherell, Ph.D., Post Date: November 27, 2019

Cumberland Advisors Market Commentary by William "Bill" Witherell, Ph.D.

On December 12th, UK voters will participate in a general election to determine the composition of the next government. The manifestos of both the Conservative Party and the Labor Party contain elements that should concern investors. Jeremy Corbyn’s hard-left Labor Party intends to convert the UK into a socialist economy through sweeping nationalizations (railways, broadband [Continued…] https://www.cumber.com/cumberland-advisors-market-commentary-uk-voters-dilemma-johnson-or-corbyn/


Cumberland Advisors Market Commentary – NIRP, Lagarde, Trump, Dickens & Holidays

Author: David R. Kotok, Post Date: November 25, 2019

Market Commentary - Cumberland Advisors - NIRP (David Kotok)

Negative-interest-rate policies (NIRP) have been criticized by some (me included) and pursued by others, including Europeans aligned with former European Central Bank (ECB) president Mario Draghi. However, growing numbers of Europeans are becoming disenchanted with NIRP, and some are now shifting away from it. In our view, negative rates have, predictably, damaged growth for over five years. The ECB’s new president, Christine Lagarde, seems to understand that she faces a daunting task in extricating ECB policy from reliance upon negative rates.

Here is an excerpt from her first speech:

“In my view, since our challenges are common ones, we must meet them with a common response. This involves moving towards a new European policy mix, which has a number of key elements. The first is monetary policy, which I start with because it is my area of responsibility and which will undergo a strategic review due to begin in the near future.”

Hat tip to Kevin Humphreys for the reference. Kevin is manager, European money markets, for BGC Partners. He is based in London. Kevin has kindly given us permission to share his observations with our readers. We completely agree with his view.

“Having had a few references of late from board members to potential side-effects of European Central Bank monetary policy, it was perhaps of little surprise that the ECB in their financial stability report should highlight that sub-zero interest rates have forced large investors to take on more risks and businesses to take on more debt. Equally unremarkable were the other two main observations, that bank profitability prospects have weakened and that mispriced assets may represent a vulnerability.

[Continued…] https://www.cumber.com/cumberland-advisors-market-commentary-nirp-lagarde-trump-dickens-holidays/


The MoneyShow Orlando 2020


John Mousseau at the Money Show Orlando

John R. Mousseau, CFA, will be joining a large gathering of members of Wall Street’s financial community in Orlando this winter season for The MoneyShow Orlando 2020. The three days of the conference will focus on new investment ideas that address the current economic and geopolitical environment and will feature tools, strategies, and advice which may help you better position your portfolio.

John will be a featured speaker, giving a review of the bond market in the past year (2019) and what we should expect from the bond market in a presidential election year.

To join John in February 2020 or learn more, please visit: https://conferences.moneyshow.com/moneyshow-orlando/


Bloomberg Surveillance: Negative Interest Rates with Kotok (Radio Podcast)

Author: David R. Kotok, Post Date: November 27, 2019

Cumberland Advisors’ David R. Kotok talks about negative interest rates, NIRP, and says the European Central Bank’s (ECB) Christine Lagarde has a difficult task right now.

Cumberland's David Kotok on Bloomberg Radio

He also discusses China, the pork shortage, and the impact of viruses on the global food supply.

Running time 25:02, David is introduced at the 10:45 mark – Play Episode:  https://www.bloomberg.com/news/audio/2019-11-27/surveillance-negative-interest-rates-with-kotok-podcast

Also see David’s Nov 25, 2019 commentary on NIRP: https://www.cumber.com/cumberland-advisors-market-commentary-nirp-lagarde-trump-dickens-holidays/


From Yahoo Finance

Charles Schwab is reportedly buying TD Ameritrade. “The hidden piece of this for investors is the yield on the money market fund, the yield on the sweep,” @CumberlandADV Chiarman David Kotok says. “And they tend not to look at it, and so there’s a widening margin.”


Negative interest rates aren’t working

Excerpt from ForexLive’s “Negative interest rates aren’t working”

Nov, 25 2019

Author: Adam Button

There haven’t been any victories in the negative-rate world.

The ultimate test of any theory is in the results.

The idea behind negative interest rates is that they will spur borrowing and economic activity, leading to inflation and a weaker currency.

It may be too soon to judge the results but the early returns are poor. Earlier this month the CME looked at the results of negative rates in four regions: the eurozone, Japan, Sweden and Switzerland. They all went negative between 2014 and 2016.

None of the four “have achieved their inflation targets as a result of negative deposit rates,” the CME writes.

Moreover, the negative-rate experiment so far has failed to stimulate growth sustainably. Early returns in Japan, the eurozone and Sweden were solid but GDP has slumped back close to zero.

David Kotok of Cumberland Advisors is out with a paper attacking negative rates.

The notional pricing of the trillions of dollars and euros in swaps and derivatives is thrown into disarray. As a result, the banks and market agents sponsoring those derivatives must raise their pricing to protect themselves from this added risk induced by NIRP. When they raise their pricing, they add to transactional costs and therefore suppress economic activity at the margin. That is a reason NIRP slows growth and raises risk.

Read the full article at ForexLive’s website: https://www.forexlive.com/news/!/negative-interest-rates-arent-working-20191125

 


In Case You Missed It…

Florida’s Red Tide: Possible causes, Who’s to blame?

Author: John R. Mousseau, CFA, Post Date: September 15, 2018

Jim Roemer (A.K.A. Dr. Weather) has been forecasting for the commodity and ski industry for over 30 years . He splits his time between Sarasota, Florida and Vermont, and has a deep passion and concern about the environment and climate. We found his work titled, “Florida’s Red Tide: Possible causes, Who’s to blame? Implications to humans and how it can be resolved,” to be interesting and of interest to our audience. With his permission and our thanks to Jim, we share it with you today. You can find out more about Jim Roemer at his website, https://www.bestweatherinc.com.

John R. Mousseau, CFA
President and CEO
Email | Bio

Florida’s Red Tide: Possible causes, Who’s to blame?


Florida’s Red Tide: Possible causes, Who’s to blame?
Implications to humans and how it can be resolved

As a steward of trying to bring more awareness to people about global warming and protecting our environment, seeing and smelling, the Red Tide Algae in Florida, is particularly bothersome.

THE FIRST THING you notice is the smell. It’s not a scent, exactly, but a tingling in the nose that quickly spreads to the throat and burns the lungs. But then you see the carcasses.

I moved to Florida 10 years ago to enjoy the Florida beaches, but have seen first hand how Red Tide has gotten worse over the years. In the past, hurricanes such as Katrina, Irma, etc. were thought to add to the problem, but actually, we need some sort of tropical weather system to churn up the waters. This would potentially mix up and move toxins, if only temporarily. It’s ironic to think about a hurricane actually benefiting Florida, after the many disasters the Sunshine State has witnessed over the years. However, a weak system could actually be beneficial to Florida.

RED TIDE–“It’s killing sea life, battering our economy and making people sick,” says a recent Florida TV ad. “Red tide continues to devastate our area. And many feel it’s fair to blame Rick Scott.” The blame assertion is lifted from an Orlando Sentinel editorial, which appears on screen.

[Continued…] https://www.cumber.com/floridas-red-tide-possible-causes-whos-to-blame/


Links to other websites or electronic media controlled or offered by Third-Parties (non-affiliates of Cumberland Advisors) are provided only as a reference and courtesy to our users. Cumberland Advisors has no control over such websites, does not recommend or endorse any opinions, ideas, products, information, or content of such sites, and makes no warranties as to the accuracy, completeness, reliability or suitability of their content. Cumberland Advisors hereby disclaims liability for any information, materials, products or services posted or offered at any of the Third-Party websites. The Third-Party may have a privacy and/or security policy different from that of Cumberland Advisors. Therefore, please refer to the specific privacy and security policies of the Third-Party when accessing their websites.

Sign up for our FREE Cumberland Market Commentaries

Cumberland Advisors Market Commentaries offer insights and analysis on upcoming, important economic issues that potentially impact global financial markets. Our team shares their thinking on global economic developments, market news and other factors that often influence investment opportunities and strategies.

Posted on: 11/30/2019 arrow Watch Video arrow
FAANG stocks hit hard by U.S.-China trade war

Yahoo Finance Highlight: The trade war rages on

Yahoo Finance Highlight: The trade war rages on

Nov 22, 2019

David Kotok on Yahoo Finance: Trade War Rages On [Video]

Watch the embedded video from Yahoo Finance below or at this link: https://finance.yahoo.com/video/trade-war-rages-141444340.html

Yahoo Finance’s Adam Shapiro, Julie Hyman, Dan Roberts and Cumberland Advisors Chairman & CIO David Kotok discuss how the trade war has ruined relations between the U.S. and China and how China’s purchasing of soybeans from Brazil puts pressure on the Amazon Rain Forrest.

 


Links to other websites or electronic media controlled or offered by Third-Parties (non-affiliates of Cumberland Advisors) are provided only as a reference and courtesy to our users. Cumberland Advisors has no control over such websites, does not recommend or endorse any opinions, ideas, products, information, or content of such sites, and makes no warranties as to the accuracy, completeness, reliability or suitability of their content. Cumberland Advisors hereby disclaims liability for any information, materials, products or services posted or offered at any of the Third-Party websites. The Third-Party may have a privacy and/or security policy different from that of Cumberland Advisors. Therefore, please refer to the specific privacy and security policies of the Third-Party when accessing their websites.

Sign up for our FREE Cumberland Market Commentaries

Cumberland Advisors Market Commentaries offer insights and analysis on upcoming, important economic issues that potentially impact global financial markets. Our team shares their thinking on global economic developments, market news and other factors that often influence investment opportunities and strategies.

Posted on: 11/27/2019 arrow Watch Video arrow
Cumberland Advisors Week in Review (Nov 18, 2019 - Nov 22, 2019)

Cumberland Advisors Week in Review (Nov 18, 2019 – Nov 22, 2019)

The Cumberland Advisors Week in Review is a recap of news, commentary, and opinion from our team.

Week In Review

These are not revised assessments, and circumstances may have changed in the market from the time of original publication. We also include older commentaries that our editors have determined may be of interest to our audience. Your feedback is always welcome.

CUMBERLAND ADVISORS’ WEEKLY RECAP

As part of Cumberland Advisors’ continuous effort to maintain strong customer relationships, we offer this week’s short video discussing current market conditions and how we are positioning portfolios.



We have Matt McAleer on camera this week to discuss our Quant work and indicators and the four Cumberland Advisors strategies that are involved with them. He talks about:

-Where our Quant Strategy started with Leo Chen Ph.D.
-What are “buy” signals in our Quant work?
-What are “sell” or “exit” signals in our Quant work?
-Matt outlines what sectors we’re in in response to our Quant work

Thanks for taking the time to join us!

Watch and comment online at: https://youtu.be/krnZG0DiKlU

Matt enjoys your feedback. You can reach him at:
-Link to Matt’s Email: Matthew.McAleer@Cumber.com
-Link to Matt’s Twitter: https://twitter.com/MattMcAleer4
-Link to Matt’s LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/matthew-c-mcaleer/
-Call Matt: (800) 257-7013

Or email us at info@cumber.com or give us a call at (800) 257-7013


Cumberland Advisors in the Community

Spark-Growth-Sara-Hand-USF-Dr-Greg-Smogard-Cumberland-Advisors-Patricia-Healy-CFA
Patricia Healy, CFA (on the right) is pictured with Sara Hand of Spark Growth, TiE Tampa Bay Conference Program Chair, along with USF Sarasota-Manatee’s Dr. Greg Smogard, their innovation and business development officer.

Cumberland Advisors’ Patricia Healy, CFA and Norman Dempsey, MBA, attended the Indus Entrepreneurs (TiE) “Talk” in celebration of Global Entrepreneurship Week. The event was titled, “Funding Continuum and Landscape for Startups” and was held at the USF Sarasota-Manatee campus.

Patricia Healy (on the right) is pictured with Sara Hand of Spark Growth, TiE Tampa Bay Conference Program Chair, along with USF Sarasota-Manatee’s Dr. Greg Smogard, their innovation and business development officer.

Cumberland Advisors’ team members enjoy interacting within the communities in which we live, work and play whether it be chambers of commerce, museums, educational institutions, non-profits, or others. Watch for more collaboration with USF including Cumberland Advisors’ “Fourth Annual Financial Literacy Day: Understanding Global Markets and Finance” coming February 2020. We hope to see you around town!


Worried About a Bear Market? Bonds Pose More Danger Than Stocks.


Cumberland Advisors John MousseauBarron’s excerpt: Municipal Bonds could provide some protection against higher taxes should Elizabeth Warren become the next president. That’s the view of John R. Mousseau, president, CEO, and director of fixed income at Cumberland Advisors.

Read more: https://www.cumber.com/barrons-worried-about-a-bear-market-bonds-pose-more-danger-than-stocks/


Bloomberg Daybreak: Australia with David R. Kotok on Trade and China (Video)


Bloomberg Daybreak Australia - David Kotok talks Trade & China

David Kotok joins Bloomberg Daybreak: Australia to discuss the US-China trade relationship.

“Our view is, a full trade arrangement with China has eluded us; it’s gone. Businesses are now making decisions about location around the world. They’re changing what they’re doing. The United States is now collecting a sales tax on Americans, masquerading as a tariff. And the amount in the tariff is now paying approximately 1/4 of the interest bill on American borrowings and we have a rising deficit. And you hear the president say we’re collecting all this money. Well we are collecting it. Americans are paying it. And we see it in changes in prices. A washing machine costs 10 or 12 percent more than it did before the tariffs. So this is an unfolding story. I’m not sanguine about it and I believe markets are adjusting to the fact that this is a more permanent space. Which means pricing is different, location of businesses are different.”

Watch David’s full interview online at the Bloomberg website. He starts around the 12:30 minute mark: www.bloomberg.com


BondBuyer – Lower tuition rates may mean more downgrades in FY 2020


Cumberland-Advisors-Patricia-Healy-In-The-News

Excerpt from The Bond Buyer
By Sarah Wynn
Nov 18, 2019

Some analysts have decided to stick with highly rated bonds in the higher education sector.

“The higher education area, depending on if it’s public or private has seen some declines (in enrollment) over the years, especially in the private colleges,” said Patricia Healy, senior vice president of research and portfolio manager at Cumberland Advisors. Private universities have seen more downgrades than public universities, Healy later added.

Healy said Cumberland looks for double-A and higher single A-rated bonds because high-quality bonds tend to be more liquid and the firm tends to take a more active strategy.

Healy said her firm stopped investing in many private colleges years ago due to the continuing decline in enrollment. Healy said a decline in enrollment can be a reflection of a good economy because people are going directly into the workforce.

Continued:  https://www.cumber.com/bondbuyer-lower-tuition-rates-may-mean-more-downgrades-in-fy-2020/


Yahoo Finance Highlight: David Kotok discusses Macy’s, Target earnings & retail divide


CA-David-Kotok-Yahoo-Finance-Retail discussion

Watch the video at this link: https://www.cumber.com/yahoo-finance-highlight-david-kotok-discusses-macys-target-earnings-retail-divide/


The MoneyShow Orlando 2020


John Mousseau at the Money Show Orlando

John R. Mousseau, CFA, will be joining a large gathering of members of Wall Street’s financial community in Orlando this winter season for The MoneyShow Orlando 2020. The three days of the conference will focus on new investment ideas that address the current economic and geopolitical environment and will feature tools, strategies, and advice which may help you better position your portfolio.

John will be a featured speaker, giving a review of the bond market in the past year (2019) and what we should expect from the bond market in a presidential election year.

To join John in February 2020 or learn more, please visit: https://conferences.moneyshow.com/moneyshow-orlando/


Cumberland Advisors Market Commentary – Overshadowed?


Author: Robert Eisenbeis, Ph.D., Post Date: November 19, 2019
Federal Reserve - FOMC
Public attention this past week was riveted on the impeachment testimony before the House Intelligence Committee, which totally overshadowed Chairman Powell’s semiannual report and two days of testimony to Congress on monetary policy. That outcome is probably not a bad one, since there were no new insights provided nor any clues as to when or […]

Continued: https://www.cumber.com/cumberland-advisors-market-commentary-overshadowed/


Cumberland Advisors Market Commentary – The Warren Hedge


Author: John R. Mousseau, CFA, Post Date: November 20, 2019

Market Commentary - Cumberland Advisors - The Warren Hedge (John Mousseau)In the past few weeks Senator Elizabeth Warren has risen to be neck and neck with Joe Biden in most of the national polls for the Democratic nomination. In some of the electronic betting polls, though, Warren is ahead of Biden by 5–6 points, depending on the day. Warren has promised higher taxes, which would […]

Continued:  https://www.cumber.com/cumberland-advisors-market-commentary-the-warren-hedge/


Cumberland Advisors Market Commentary – Trade War and No Recession


Author: David R. Kotok, Post Date: November 18, 2019

Stop Digging

The United States has gotten itself into a trade war negotiations mess. (See “How Trump’s Trade War Went From Method to Madness,” https://www.bloomberg.com/news/features/2019-11-14/how-trump-s-trade-war-went-from-method-to-madness.) There is an old adage: “When you’re in a hole and it’s getting deeper, stop digging!” Trump and Co. know they’re in a mess but don’t know how to stop digging, so they have […]

Continued: https://www.cumber.com/cumberland-advisors-market-commentary-trade-war-and-no-recession/


Links to other websites or electronic media controlled or offered by Third-Parties (non-affiliates of Cumberland Advisors) are provided only as a reference and courtesy to our users. Cumberland Advisors has no control over such websites, does not recommend or endorse any opinions, ideas, products, information, or content of such sites, and makes no warranties as to the accuracy, completeness, reliability or suitability of their content. Cumberland Advisors hereby disclaims liability for any information, materials, products or services posted or offered at any of the Third-Party websites. The Third-Party may have a privacy and/or security policy different from that of Cumberland Advisors. Therefore, please refer to the specific privacy and security policies of the Third-Party when accessing their websites.

Sign up for our FREE Cumberland Market Commentaries

Cumberland Advisors Market Commentaries offer insights and analysis on upcoming, important economic issues that potentially impact global financial markets. Our team shares their thinking on global economic developments, market news and other factors that often influence investment opportunities and strategies.

Posted on: 11/23/2019 arrow Watch Video arrow
Bloomberg Daybreak Australia - David Kotok talks Trade & China

Bloomberg Daybreak: Australia with David R. Kotok on Trade and China (Video)

Bloomberg Daybreak: Australia with David R. Kotok on Trade and China

Nov 20, 2019

Bloomberg Daybreak Australia - David Kotok talks Trade & China

David Kotok joins Bloomberg Daybreak: Australia to discuss the US-China trade relationship.

“Our view is, a full trade arrangement with China has eluded us; it’s gone. Businesses are now making decisions about location around the world. They’re changing what they’re doing. The United States is now collecting a sales tax on Americans, masquerading as a tariff. And the amount in the tariff is now paying approximately 1/4 of the interest bill on American borrowings and we have a rising deficit. And you hear the president say we’re collecting all this money. Well we are collecting it. Americans are paying it. And we see it in changes in prices. A washing machine costs 10 or 12 percent more than it did before the tariffs. So this is an unfolding story. I’m not sanguine about it and I believe markets are adjusting to the fact that this is a more permanent space. Which means pricing is different, location of businesses are different. And as that unfolds we go down first, we see it, and then there is the reallocation elsewhere.”

Watch online at the Bloomberg website. David starts around the 12:30 minute mark: www.bloomberg.com

 


Links to other websites or electronic media controlled or offered by Third-Parties (non-affiliates of Cumberland Advisors) are provided only as a reference and courtesy to our users. Cumberland Advisors has no control over such websites, does not recommend or endorse any opinions, ideas, products, information, or content of such sites, and makes no warranties as to the accuracy, completeness, reliability or suitability of their content. Cumberland Advisors hereby disclaims liability for any information, materials, products or services posted or offered at any of the Third-Party websites. The Third-Party may have a privacy and/or security policy different from that of Cumberland Advisors. Therefore, please refer to the specific privacy and security policies of the Third-Party when accessing their websites.

Sign up for our FREE Cumberland Market Commentaries

Cumberland Advisors Market Commentaries offer insights and analysis on upcoming, important economic issues that potentially impact global financial markets. Our team shares their thinking on global economic developments, market news and other factors that often influence investment opportunities and strategies.

Posted on: 11/21/2019 arrow Watch Video arrow
CA-David-Kotok-Yahoo-Finance-Retail discussion

Yahoo Finance Highlight: David Kotok discusses Macy’s, Target earnings & retail divide

Yahoo Finance Highlight: David Kotok discusses Macy’s, Target earnings & retail divide

 

CA-David-Kotok-Yahoo-Finance-Retail discussion

Watch the embedded video from Twitter & Yahoo Finance below.

 



 


Links to other websites or electronic media controlled or offered by Third-Parties (non-affiliates of Cumberland Advisors) are provided only as a reference and courtesy to our users. Cumberland Advisors has no control over such websites, does not recommend or endorse any opinions, ideas, products, information, or content of such sites, and makes no warranties as to the accuracy, completeness, reliability or suitability of their content. Cumberland Advisors hereby disclaims liability for any information, materials, products or services posted or offered at any of the Third-Party websites. The Third-Party may have a privacy and/or security policy different from that of Cumberland Advisors. Therefore, please refer to the specific privacy and security policies of the Third-Party when accessing their websites.

Sign up for our FREE Cumberland Market Commentaries

Cumberland Advisors Market Commentaries offer insights and analysis on upcoming, important economic issues that potentially impact global financial markets. Our team shares their thinking on global economic developments, market news and other factors that often influence investment opportunities and strategies.

Posted on: 11/21/2019 arrow Watch Video arrow
Cumberland-Advisors-Week-in-Review-November-15-2019- John Mousseau

Cumberland Advisors Week in Review (Nov 11, 2019 – Nov 15, 2019)

The Cumberland Advisors Week in Review is a recap of news, commentary, and opinion from our team.

Week In Review

These are not revised assessments, and circumstances may have changed in the market from the time of original publication. We also include older commentaries that our editors have determined may be of interest to our audience. Your feedback is always welcome.

CUMBERLAND ADVISORS’ WEEKLY RECAP

As part of Cumberland Advisors’ continuous effort to maintain strong customer relationships, we offer this week’s short video discussing current market conditions and how we are positioning portfolios.

 

 

We have John Mousseau at the helm this week and he talks about:
-Another good week for the markets
-What sectors performed well this week?
-And what doe this tell us?

Thanks for joining us, have a great weekend!
-Bond yields came down this week but are substantially above October lows
-What caused yields to come down? John details.
-An update of our Quantitative Strategies run by Dr. Chen
-Is caution in the market called for?
-How about interest rates?

Watch in the video player above or at this link: https://youtu.be/KTPfGmiDShI

Contact John Mousseau with any comments for him at: John.Mousseau@Cumber.com

Have a great weekend and thank you for joining John and Cumberland Advisors this week.

-Matt McAleer

Matt enjoys your feedback. You can reach him at:
-Link to Matt’s Email: Matthew.McAleer@Cumber.com
-Link to Matt’s Twitter: https://twitter.com/MattMcAleer4
-Link to Matt’s LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/matthew-c-mcaleer/
-Call Matt: (800) 257-7013

 


Farmers & Credit Issues


Author: David R. Kotok, Post Date: November 30, 2019

While Washington (politics and baseball) dominates the headlines, the American farmer continues to be bludgeoned by the Peter Navarro-designed and Donald Trump-approved trade war. The last two years have seen a significant erosion in US agricultural exports, and farmers have been badly hurt.

We have written many times about time lags in trade policy. It takes a year or more to get from tweeting threats to actual and measurable destructive outcomes. So here’s an update on outcomes of Navarro’s advice for the broad-based tariffs, which advice Trump followed. In doing so, Trump invited retaliatory tariffs on Agriculture and Aquaculture. Nearly every economist I’ve met advised against Navarro’s policy prescription. At this summer’s gathering in Maine, only 1 supported Navarro; 36 opposed; 3 were unsure.

The following report, detailing sharply rising farm bankruptcies, the impact on farmer’s income and more, is from the American Farm Bureau. It is loaded with information. When you read it, please ask yourself what soybeans (agriculture) or lobsters (aquaculture) have to do with intellectual property rights and 5G development.

Trump continues on a self-destructive path that is also taking down American farming. Notice the state-by-state details in the report and please muse on the potential Electoral College outcome in next year’s election. Please read the first three paragraphs if you’re short on time.

Now here’s the Farm Bureau: https://www.fb.org/market-intel/farm-bankruptcies-rise-again


Opportunities in Japan for Global Equity Investors


Author: Bill Witherell, Ph.D., Post Date: November 08, 2019

Market Commentary - Cumberland Advisors - Opportunities in Japan

The Bank of Japan at its October 30–31 Monetary Policy Committee meeting kept its policy unchanged while indicating it was willing to lower interest rates further into negative territory from their current low levels if needed to maintain progress towards the 2% inflation objective. The decision not to cut rates at this time was based on the Bank’s belief that the Japanese economy is strong enough to get through the current period of weak global demand. The economy has indeed encountered a “speed bump” that can be attributed to the rise in Japan’s sales tax from 8 to 10 percent on October 1, the major typhoon Hagibis, and the global slowdowns in trade and manufacturing. In addition, economic growth across the Asia region has been weakened by the US-China trade war.

According to the Jibun Bank Flash Japan Composite PMI (Purchasing Managers Index) reported by Markit, the Japanese economy slipped into contraction in October. Manufacturing new orders declined at the steepest pace in almost seven years, while “the service economy exhibited a remarkable degree of resilience.” The consumer sector has been one source of support for the economy as wage growth has been supported by labor shortages. Retail sales surged by over 9% in September in anticipation of the sales tax increase but appear to have fallen off in October. The labor shortages together with capacity constraints have also encouraged business investment.

Continued: https://www.cumber.com/cumberland-advisors-market-commentary-opportunities-in-japan-for-global-equity-investors/


Financial Literacy & Predatory Lending


Author: David R. Kotok, Post Date: November 7, 2019

The Military Lending Act caps annual interest on loans to military members at 36% and offers other safeguards. Now, lawmakers are proposing to extend that protection to veterans and others. NPR reports: https://www.npr.org/2019/11/07/776769597/a-ban-on-high-cost-loans-may-be-coming

Financial Literacy & Predatory Lending

How do people wind up with “High-Cost Loans” in the first place? If a lack of financial literacy is the cause, there are resources available at various levels of understanding to educate and enlighten. If you know of anyone needing a primer on financial literacy, the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis offers an online course, “Paying & Receiving Interest” at this link: https://www.econlowdown.org/interest?p=yes

Ready for more advanced topics? Then join Cumberland Advisors for the 2020 event, “Financial Markets and the Economy – Fourth Annual Financial Literacy Day”, at the University of South Florida Sarasota-Manatee (USFSM) for a deep dive into the Bond Market where we’ll examine the categories of debt and the influences on them including budget deficits and larger issues like central bank QE and its impacts on interest rates for this debt before diving into Real Time Payments (RTP) where Bitcoin, Libra, Venmo and new versions of electronic money are having an increasing impact. We’ll cap off the day’s event with a Keynote Speech from Loretta Mester, President of the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland.

If you’re interested in learning more about financial markets and the economy, please join us on Friday, February 14, 2020 for our annual conference. Learn more or register here: https://www.interdependence.org/events/browse/fourth-annual-financial-literacy-day/


Camp Kotok Conversations


We invite you to visit our YouTube channel and explore the “Camp Kotok” video playlist. This playlist is comprised of Camp Kotok interviews with guests and “campers” who participate and enjoy sharing with us. We also include panel talks, scenes from the location in Maine, and other snippets we find interesting. Enjoy! #CampKotok

Camp Kotok - Big Lake - Stacked Stones - Conversations from Camp Kotok


What the FOMC Said


Author: Robert Eisenbeis, Ph.D., Post Date: November 1, 2019

Federal Reserve - FOMC

Following the FOMC’s announcement of its third consecutive rate cut after its meeting this week, speculation immediately broke out among market participants about whether additional cuts or even rate increases might be on the horizon going into 2020. However, such speculation is probably more noise than substance at this point, since the Committee’s statement was fairly clear and became even more so during Chairman Powell’s press conference. Most commentators noted the change in language from the previous statement to the current one:

“September: As the Committee contemplates the future path of the target range for the federal funds rate, it will continue to monitor the implications of incoming information for the economic outlook and will act as appropriate to sustain the expansion, with a strong labor market and inflation near its symmetric 2 percent objective.”

“October: The Committee will continue to monitor the implications of incoming information for the economic outlook as it assesses the appropriate path of the target range for the federal funds rate.”

But more important than the differences in the wording of the statements were several things that Chairman Powell made clear during his press conference.

Continued: https://www.cumber.com/what-the-fomc-said/


The Greater Sarasota Chamber of Commerce, along with nearly 500 business and community leaders, celebrated local small businesses by awarding five category winners and one Top Honor Small Business of the Year at the 29th Annual Frank G. Berlin Sr., Small Business Awards on June 14. Cumberland Advisors won in the “Professional Services Business of the Year” category. We’re proud to display our award and this plaque at the office. Thank you Sarasota!

Sarasota Chamber of Commerce Award Plaque
Professional Services Business of the Year

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