The Cumberland Advisors Week in Review is a recap of news, commentary, and opinion from our team.
These are not revised assessments, and circumstances may have changed in the market from the time of original publication. We also include older commentaries that our editors have determined may be of interest to our audience. Your feedback is always welcome.
As part of Cumberland Advisors’ continuous effort to maintain strong customer relationships, we offer this week’s short video discussing current market conditions and how we are positioning portfolios.
This week we talk about:
-The 10 & 30 year bonds – where they were and are now
-We like to look at the Utility Index – John explains
-We are playing “Defense” in Bonds
-John explains what it means for Cumberland to be defensive and our barbell strategy
-Different types of bonds have “life preservers” and John explains this
-Matt talks about the types of signals Cumberland Advisors pays attention to
-Leo Chen Ph.D.’s work is briefly discussed
-What are call buyers telling us?
-Is there too much optimism in the market?
-How about gold?
Author: David R. Kotok, Post Date: November 30, 2019
While Washington (politics and baseball) dominates the headlines, the American farmer continues to be bludgeoned by the Peter Navarro-designed and Donald Trump-approved trade war. The last two years have seen a significant erosion in US agricultural exports, and farmers have been badly hurt.
We have written many times about time lags in trade policy. It takes a year or more to get from tweeting threats to actual and measurable destructive outcomes. So here’s an update on outcomes of Navarro’s advice for the broad-based tariffs, which advice Trump followed. In doing so, Trump invited retaliatory tariffs on Agriculture and Aquaculture. Nearly every economist I’ve met advised against Navarro’s policy prescription. At this summer’s gathering in Maine, only 1 supported Navarro; 36 opposed; 3 were unsure.
The following report, detailing sharply rising farm bankruptcies, the impact on farmer’s income and more, is from the American Farm Bureau. It is loaded with information. When you read it, please ask yourself what soybeans (agriculture) or lobsters (aquaculture) have to do with intellectual property rights and 5G development.
Trump continues on a self-destructive path that is also taking down American farming. Notice the state-by-state details in the report and please muse on the potential Electoral College outcome in next year’s election. Please read the first three paragraphs if you’re short on time.
Opportunities in Japan for Global Equity Investors
Author: Bill Witherell, Ph.D., Post Date: November 08, 2019
The Bank of Japan at its October 30–31 Monetary Policy Committee meeting kept its policy unchanged while indicating it was willing to lower interest rates further into negative territory from their current low levels if needed to maintain progress towards the 2% inflation objective. The decision not to cut rates at this time was based on the Bank’s belief that the Japanese economy is strong enough to get through the current period of weak global demand. The economy has indeed encountered a “speed bump” that can be attributed to the rise in Japan’s sales tax from 8 to 10 percent on October 1, the major typhoon Hagibis, and the global slowdowns in trade and manufacturing. In addition, economic growth across the Asia region has been weakened by the US-China trade war.
According to the Jibun Bank Flash Japan Composite PMI (Purchasing Managers Index) reported by Markit, the Japanese economy slipped into contraction in October. Manufacturing new orders declined at the steepest pace in almost seven years, while “the service economy exhibited a remarkable degree of resilience.” The consumer sector has been one source of support for the economy as wage growth has been supported by labor shortages. Retail sales surged by over 9% in September in anticipation of the sales tax increase but appear to have fallen off in October. The labor shortages together with capacity constraints have also encouraged business investment.
How do people wind up with “High-Cost Loans” in the first place? If a lack of financial literacy is the cause, there are resources available at various levels of understanding to educate and enlighten. If you know of anyone needing a primer on financial literacy, the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis offers an online course, “Paying & Receiving Interest” at this link: https://www.econlowdown.org/interest?p=yes
Ready for more advanced topics? Then join Cumberland Advisors for the 2020 event, “Financial Markets and the Economy – Fourth Annual Financial Literacy Day”, at the University of South Florida Sarasota-Manatee (USFSM) for a deep dive into the Bond Market where we’ll examine the categories of debt and the influences on them including budget deficits and larger issues like central bank QE and its impacts on interest rates for this debt before diving into Real Time Payments (RTP) where Bitcoin, Libra, Venmo and new versions of electronic money are having an increasing impact. We’ll cap off the day’s event with a Keynote Speech from Loretta Mester, President of the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland.
We invite you to visit our YouTube channel and explore the“Camp Kotok” video playlist. This playlist is comprised of Camp Kotok interviews with guests and “campers” who participate and enjoy sharing with us. We also include panel talks, scenes from the location in Maine, and other snippets we find interesting. Enjoy! #CampKotok
What the FOMC Said
Author: Robert Eisenbeis, Ph.D., Post Date: November 1, 2019
Following the FOMC’s announcement of its third consecutive rate cut after its meeting this week, speculation immediately broke out among market participants about whether additional cuts or even rate increases might be on the horizon going into 2020. However, such speculation is probably more noise than substance at this point, since the Committee’s statement was fairly clear and became even more so during Chairman Powell’s press conference. Most commentators noted the change in language from the previous statement to the current one:
“September: As the Committee contemplates the future path of the target range for the federal funds rate, it will continue to monitor the implications of incoming information for the economic outlook and will act as appropriate to sustain the expansion, with a strong labor market and inflation near its symmetric 2 percent objective.”
“October: The Committee will continue to monitor the implications of incoming information for the economic outlook as it assesses the appropriate path of the target range for the federal funds rate.”
But more important than the differences in the wording of the statements were several things that Chairman Powell made clear during his press conference.
The Greater Sarasota Chamber of Commerce, along with nearly 500 business and community leaders, celebrated local small businesses by awarding five category winners and one Top Honor Small Business of the Year at the 29th Annual Frank G. Berlin Sr., Small Business Awards on June 14. Cumberland Advisors won in the “Professional Services Business of the Year” category. We’re proud to display our award and this plaque at the office. Thank you Sarasota!
Professional Services Business of the Year
Links to other websites or electronic media controlled or offered by Third-Parties (non-affiliates of Cumberland Advisors) are provided only as a reference and courtesy to our users. Cumberland Advisors has no control over such websites, does not recommend or endorse any opinions, ideas, products, information, or content of such sites, and makes no warranties as to the accuracy, completeness, reliability or suitability of their content. Cumberland Advisors hereby disclaims liability for any information, materials, products or services posted or offered at any of the Third-Party websites. The Third-Party may have a privacy and/or security policy different from that of Cumberland Advisors. Therefore, please refer to the specific privacy and security policies of the Third-Party when accessing their websites.
Cumberland Advisors Market Commentaries offer insights and analysis on upcoming, important economic issues that potentially impact global financial markets. Our team shares their thinking on global economic developments, market news and other factors that often influence investment opportunities and strategies.
The Cumberland Advisors Week in Review is a recap of news, commentary, and opinion from our team.
These are not revised assessments, and circumstances may have changed in the market from the time of original publication. We also include older commentaries that our editors have determined may be of interest to our audience. Your feedback is always welcome.
As part of Cumberland Advisors’ continuous effort to maintain strong customer relationships, we offer this week’s short video discussing current market conditions and how we are positioning portfolios.
John Mousseau is in for Matt this week.
– We had a good trick-or-treat surprise today in the markets: we saw a great employment number
the non-farm payroll was up 128,000 when we were expecting 85,000 in new jobs
– Concerns about trade and tariffs are fading a bit, like the saying, “objects in (the) mirror are closer than they appear” but in the reverse; trade issues are not as close as they appear
– In Bonds, yields were down this week but back up a few bps today
– Munis? Down just a couple of bps this week
– We’re starting to see to with rates a pattern of two-steps-forward, one-step-back in terms of advancing since the summer lows of August
– We think this is particularly important for Munis where municipalities are coming to market for the simple reason that interest rates are very low and they’re locking in today’s low yields
– The Fed cut its rate this week and noted they are not committing to any more rate cuts which in their mind, they are accommodating the market
– This could shift the balance of the yield curve
– This will benefit banks and financial institutions
– With better financial health, we think that’s better for the overall equity markets as well
Author: David R. Kotok, Post Date: October 30, 2019
The latest federal deficit numbers show the Trump budget implementation running about $1 trillion annualized. Here’s the link to a PDF that contains details and projections by the Congressional Budget Office: https://www.cbo.gov/system/files?file=2019-01/54918-Outlook-AppendixC.pdf.US stock and bond markets greeted this news with a yawn. Market agents are more focused on other things. Meanwhile, deficit warnings, intertwined with political scenarios, are thoughtful and eloquent yet remain largely ignored. Here’s a sample from the National Review, sent out by the American Enterprise Institute: https://www.nationalreview.com/corner/what-deficit/.And please remember the present trillion-dollar annual deficit of 5% of GDP is projected to continue for the next decade. And it is happening when the economy is in the longest recovery cycle in modern times.
Author: Cumberland Advisors, Post Date: October 27, 2019
Cumberland Advisors has produced a number of market commentaries around the core theme of income, wealth inequality, and wealth taxation. In them you’ll find related data and implications of wealth tax proposals and their probable effect on markets, individuals, entrepreneurs, and businesses. Here are links to those recent writings in what forms a series of wealth tax pieces:
Meet Regional Director of Investments, Todd Engelhardt
Todd Engelhardt serves as Regional Director of Investments for Southwest Florida. He is responsible for Cumberland Advisors’ service to individuals, institutions, retirement plans, and government entities. Todd speaks at investment conferences and other events explaining Cumberland’s investment philosophy and portfolio options to individuals, financial advisors and institutional clients.
Prior to Cumberland, Todd held senior positions in distribution and marketing with FleetBoston, Manning & Napier Advisors, and Fifth Third. While at Fleet, Todd was responsible for developing the institutional asset management business for over a decade. He served as National Sales Director in Fleet’s Columbia Management Group subsidiary, with responsibility for Endowment and Foundation business development. Todd also assisted in Columbia’s integration of Boston-based Liberty Asset Management, as well as a host of smaller bank investment unit acquisitions. He began his career with the management information systems consulting practice of Arthur Andersen & Co. in New York City where he worked with financial services clients.
Todd received an MBA from Rensselaer Polytechnic Institute in 1984. He has over 30 years of investment management experience.
Author: Patricia Healy, Post Date: November 1, 2019
The fires engulfing parts of California are feared to become the nation’s worst fire disaster, possibly surpassing 2017 and 2018 fire events. Spurred on by wind gusts of up to 80 mph, this disaster harkens back to Superstorm Sandy, which occurred seven years ago, in October 2012.
Superstorm Sandy soaked the Northeast, and its 80-mph winds caused almost $70 billion in damages per Wikipedia. It was one of the most costly natural disasters ever to hit the United States. The extent of the damage was also a function of the storm’s hitting many densely populated areas that were centers of economic activity. No one yet knows, and it will likely take some time to determine the full cost of the 2019 fires in terms of damages to homes and businesses, lives lost, and the cost of the herculean response by CalFire, municipal fire departments, and others. It is only October, while the deadly Camp fire of 2018 occurred in November, and dry conditions continue to persist. The fires this year, like Superstorm Sandy, have occurred in or near some densely populated areas with high real estate values, many businesses, and intense economic activity.
Camp Kotok alum Ann Berry, Partner, Cornell Capital, joined Rishaad Salamat and Bryan Curtis on Bloomberg’s Daybreak Asia. She says there’s more focus on fundamental business performance this earnings season. She goes on to how discussions on trade have changed. You can listen to her October 24, 2019 interview here:
We invite you to visit our YouTube channel and explore the“Camp Kotok” video playlist. This playlist is comprised of Camp Kotok interviews with guests and “campers” who participate and enjoy sharing with us. We also include panel talks, scenes from the location in Maine, and other snippets we find interesting. Enjoy! #CampKotok
What the FOMC Said
Author: Robert Eisenbeis, Ph.D., Post Date: November 1, 2019
Following the FOMC’s announcement of its third consecutive rate cut after its meeting this week, speculation immediately broke out among market participants about whether additional cuts or even rate increases might be on the horizon going into 2020. However, such speculation is probably more noise than substance at this point, since the Committee’s statement was fairly clear and became even more so during Chairman Powell’s press conference. Most commentators noted the change in language from the previous statement to the current one:
“September: As the Committee contemplates the future path of the target range for the federal funds rate, it will continue to monitor the implications of incoming information for the economic outlook and will act as appropriate to sustain the expansion, with a strong labor market and inflation near its symmetric 2 percent objective.”
“October: The Committee will continue to monitor the implications of incoming information for the economic outlook as it assesses the appropriate path of the target range for the federal funds rate.”
But more important than the differences in the wording of the statements were several things that Chairman Powell made clear during his press conference.
Links to other websites or electronic media controlled or offered by Third-Parties (non-affiliates of Cumberland Advisors) are provided only as a reference and courtesy to our users. Cumberland Advisors has no control over such websites, does not recommend or endorse any opinions, ideas, products, information, or content of such sites, and makes no warranties as to the accuracy, completeness, reliability or suitability of their content. Cumberland Advisors hereby disclaims liability for any information, materials, products or services posted or offered at any of the Third-Party websites. The Third-Party may have a privacy and/or security policy different from that of Cumberland Advisors. Therefore, please refer to the specific privacy and security policies of the Third-Party when accessing their websites.
Cumberland Advisors Market Commentaries offer insights and analysis on upcoming, important economic issues that potentially impact global financial markets. Our team shares their thinking on global economic developments, market news and other factors that often influence investment opportunities and strategies.
Robert Eisenbeis, vice chairman and chief monetary economist at Cumberland Advisors, discusses the potential for another Fed rate cut in December and beyond and his thoughts on communication from the central bank. He speaks on “Bloomberg Daybreak: Asia.” (Source: Bloomberg)
Another podcast you may enjoy is the June 22, 2018 Bloomberg Daybreak interview with David Kotok, Chairman and Chief Investment Officer at Cumberland Advisors. He discusses the Dow’s eight day drop and possible trade war with China. He also discussed bonds and treasuries with Bloomberg.
NOTE: Links to other websites or electronic media controlled or offered by Third-Parties (non-affiliates of Cumberland Advisors) are provided only as a reference and courtesy to our users. Cumberland Advisors has no control over such websites, does not recommend or endorse any opinions, ideas, products, information, or content of such sites, and makes no warranties as to the accuracy, completeness, reliability or suitability of their content. Cumberland Advisors hereby disclaims liability for any information, materials, products or services posted or offered at any of the Third-Party websites. The Third-Party may have a privacy and/or security policy different from that of Cumberland Advisors. Therefore, please refer to the specific privacy and security policies of the Third-Party when accessing their websites.
If you like podcasts, check out this one from 2015 featuring David Kotok talking about his background and Camp Kotok with Barry Ritholtz. They also talk about the history of Cumberland Advisors since its founding, and delve into fundamental principles of investing and valuation.
The Cumberland Advisors Week in Review is a recap of news, commentary, and opinion from our team.
These are not revised assessments, and circumstances may have changed in the market from the time of original publication. We also include older commentaries that our editors have determined may be of interest to our audience. Your feedback is always welcome.
As part of Cumberland Advisors’ continuous effort to maintain strong customer relationships, we offer this week’s short video discussing current market conditions and how we are positioning portfolios.
In this week’s review, we talk about:
– Current markets
– If you are long on markets, what you like today is what we saw out of our cross-market indicators
– Defensives are where people put money when they are concerned or nervous about the market
– It’s difficult for the broad market to rally when defensives have a bid
– Is all the bad news priced into the developed market?
– What helps our domestic markets?
– A mini-battle is on the horizon. Will the market break out of where it’s been?
– A little review on some of our strategies
– John Mousseau will be joining us next week!
-Email us at info@cumber.com or give us a call at (800) 257-7013
Enjoy your weekend and please send us your questions and comments. We thank you for joining us!
Author: William Witherell, Ph.D., Post Date: October 21, 2019
The exceptional Saturday session of the United Kingdom’s Parliament, the first in 37 years, was expected to produce a decisive yes or no vote on the new Brexit deal Prime Minister Boris Johnson had negotiated with the European Union (EU).
October 19 was the final day for Parliament to agree to a deal before the Prime Minister would be required to request an extension from the EU beyond the current date of October 31. To the government’s apparent surprise, an amendment was proposed and passed (322 to 306) stipulating that Johnson’s deal could be approved only when all the legislation implementing the withdrawal is passed. So no vote on the deal was possible.
Johnson reiterated his position: “I will not negotiate a delay.” But as he was required by law, he sent a letter to the EU requesting a three-month delay. He did not sign the letter and sent an additional letter recommending that the EU not grant the requested extension. This maneuver will certainly be reviewed by one or more courts. In any event, the EU considered the request made and is very likely to grant the extension to limit the possibility of a no-deal hard exit of the UK from the EU.
Q3 2019 Municipal Credit: Bond Market Dynamics, Natural Disasters, Green Bonds, State Rating Changes, & an Update on Single Ratings
Author: Patricia Healy, CFA, Post Date: October 24, 2019
Municipal bond credit quality remains relatively strong, as indications are still that upgrades are outpacing downgrades. S&P and Moody’s have both recently issued comments that corporate credit quality is weakening.
Per S&P, credits rated AAA to B- with negative outlooks or CreditWatch-negative assignments have been increasing, indicating a negative bias. Similarly, Moody’s estimates that the third-quarter downgrade-per-upgrade ratio for all US high-yield credit-rating revisions increased to over 2.25:1 from January to September 2019; and this is excluding downgrades that were for special events rather than fundamental weaknesses such as in financial operations or business position. The ratio is up from 1.09:1 for 2018.
Interest rates have been low and declining, and corporate and municipal issuers are taking advantage of the positive market conditions. Increased issuance sometimes indicates that market players think rates are attractive and are going to go higher. Municipal volume this year is expected to reach $400 billion, much higher than beginning-of-the-year estimates of $340 billion. The increase has occurred because municipal issuers are rushing to market with taxable municipal bonds to refund outstanding tax-exempt bonds.
The Puerto Rico House voted unanimously to not collaborate with pension cuts found in Puerto Rico’s proposed plan of adjustment.
Shaun Burgess of Cumberland Advisors
Shaun Burgess, portfolio analyst at Cumberland Advisors, said, “My understanding is that advancement of the plan depends on Judge Swain’s approval and not legislative action.
“Whether [the House’s action] could be road block at some point in the future remains to be seen,” Burgess continued, cautioning that he is not a lawyer.
The Kiplinger Tax Map: Guide to State Income Taxes, State Sales Taxes, Gas Taxes, Sin Taxes
Author: David R. Kotok, Post Date: October 25, 2019
We’re again returning to the complex subject of wealth taxation. Why? A number of readers have asked us for further details about it.
For example: isn’t real estate taxation a form of a wealth tax? And if the tax on your house is limited in deductions because of SALT, isn’t that a federal form of a hidden wealth tax? As readers can quickly see, this becomes complex quickly.
The following link takes you to a Kiplinger interactive breakdown of taxation in all 50 states. It is not just an income-tax-rate comparison. For example, you can see just how devastating the real estate property tax burden is in New Jersey. Readers may set up their own comparisons. We thank Kiplinger for offering this public service.
Philly pension board drops Ken Fisher as money manager after derogatory comments about women
Philadelphia’s city pension fund has dropped money manager Ken Fisher as a portfolio manager, after the high-profile Wall Street mainstay was reported to have made sexist comments at an industry event earlier this month.
“The trustees and staff of the Philadelphia Board of Pensions find Ken Fisher’s comments, as reported by multiple media, to be sexist, offensive, and wholly incompatible with the board’s values,” spokesman Michael Dunn said in a statement.
In the professional world of Fisher’s asset management peers, “his behavior was viewed as appalling and offensive. He subsequently apologized. Most of the shocked professionals I spoke with said, ‘too little, too late,’ ” said David Kotok, chief investment officer with Cumberland Advisors, which manages bond portfolios for pension funds and other clients.
Author: David R. Kotok, Post Date: October 19, 2019
Here is an updated report from Al Jazeera on the Turkey ceasefire and related developments. While it reflects network leanings, they are much different from the CNN-Fox distortions, and more facts may often be gleaned.
Dear readers, there is no rational way to seek an investor path through the bewildering twists and turns of present American foreign policy, if policy it be. It changes continually; and its disruptiveness, accompanied by constant, corrosive hyperbole, makes macro-dependent investing a high-risk adventure.
Here’s our position. We don’t own the Turkey ETF. We see the entire Middle East as a risky place. Think about it. Saudi gets attacked, and drones disable 5% of global oil production. Then nothing happens. Next, two missiles hit an Iranian tanker. Still nothing happens. Now, hundreds of ISIS fighters have escaped, and the lives of hundreds of thousands of Syrian Kurds are at risk. What will happen next?
Links to other websites or electronic media controlled or offered by Third-Parties (non-affiliates of Cumberland Advisors) are provided only as a reference and courtesy to our users. Cumberland Advisors has no control over such websites, does not recommend or endorse any opinions, ideas, products, information, or content of such sites, and makes no warranties as to the accuracy, completeness, reliability or suitability of their content. Cumberland Advisors hereby disclaims liability for any information, materials, products or services posted or offered at any of the Third-Party websites. The Third-Party may have a privacy and/or security policy different from that of Cumberland Advisors. Therefore, please refer to the specific privacy and security policies of the Third-Party when accessing their websites.
Cumberland Advisors Market Commentaries offer insights and analysis on upcoming, important economic issues that potentially impact global financial markets. Our team shares their thinking on global economic developments, market news and other factors that often influence investment opportunities and strategies.
The Cumberland Advisors Week in Review is a recap of news, commentary, and opinion from our team.
These are not revised assessments, and circumstances may have changed in the market from the time of original publication. We also include older commentaries that our editors have determined may be of interest to our audience. Your feedback is always welcome.
As part of Cumberland Advisors’ continuous effort to maintain strong customer relationships, we offer this week’s short video discussing current market conditions and how we are positioning portfolios.
In this week’s review, we focus on the SHOCKING performance comparison between large, mid and small cap asset sizes over the last twenty years, and how we are positioning ourselves in preparation for the next decade.
How do we use this information to AVOID recency bias?
-Email us at info@cumber.com or give us a call at (800) 257-7013
Enjoy your weekend and please send us your questions and comments. We thank you for joining us!
Author: David R. Kotok, Post Date: October 15, 2019
On Tuesday, Oct. 8, at the Tiburon CEO Summit XXXVII, sponsored by Tiburon Strategic Advisors, Ken Fisher, a well-known money manager and billionaire, made remarks that many in attendance found to be misogynistic (see one reaction at https://www.wealthmanagement.com/people/ken-fisher-s-sexual-comments-roil-tiburon-conference); and Fisher was informed that he will no longer be welcome at Tiburon events.
So why does a man of Fisher’s status place himself this way in front of such a prominent audience? Did he think the NDA that participants signed would protect him? Was he trying to be cute or cool? His motivation is a subject for others. The outcomes are the subject of this commentary.
In the professional world of his asset management peers, his behavior was viewed as appalling and offensive. He subsequently apologized. Most of the shocked professionals I spoke with said, “Too little, too late.”
I started to write a longer discussion about my last 50 years and how the previous all-boys club of finance has changed. For us, that evolution happened a long time ago. Women have owned parts of Cumberland and held prominent officers’ positions for three decades plus.
Then Chip Roame, managing partner of prestigious Tiburon, spoke out publicly about the incident. His words are eloquent, and they are totally consistent with Cumberland’s view. Chip agreed to letting me quote him. We thank him for that permission. Readers are invited to read and consider Chip’s message.
Here’s Chip Roame’s unabridged public response:
OFFENSIVE COMMENTS
Some offensive comments were made by one fireside chat participant in a session late Tuesday afternoon. There remain disagreements as to exactly what was said, how it was intended, and how it was interpreted. I was on stage and have my own understanding of the situation which I have discussed with many long time Tiburon members. I further reached out specifically to several additional female Tiburon members who were present when the comments were made to solicit their views. I will not share these members’ views but I welcome them to share their own views if they so wish. They helped me to act, and act firmly. Some though told me they thought this deserved no response. I respectfully disagree.
I will speak only for myself today. I was extremely disappointed by the comments that I heard in the way that I understood them. I can, in no way, condone or find acceptable what I heard in the way that I understood its intent.
Author: David R. Kotok, Post Date: October 14, 2019Elizabeth Warren (@ewarren)
“On my first day as president, I will sign an executive order that puts a total moratorium on all new fossil fuel leases for drilling offshore and on public lands. And I will ban fracking—everywhere.” (Twitter, 4:26 PM, Sep 6, 2019)
Elizabeth Warren’s increasing political strength relative to Joe Biden’s is leading market agents to become serious about policy changes under a Warren presidency. The tweet above is an example of a proposed policy.
Meanwhile, Trump’s growing impeachment problems and his Navarro-advised failing trade policy have weakened the US Manufacturing sector and changed some of the granular polling data. It is now impossible to confidently forecast the 2020 election outcomes. While the Democrats are still favored to keep their majority in the House and the Republicans to keep their majority in the Senate, the best guesses today are made with high uncertainty.
Meanwhile, market agents are repricing risk, and that risk includes possible changes in health care and banks/financial and, given the above tweet, the domestic US Energy sector.
Let’s use an example.
Natural gas is a terrific American production success. We have a lot. It’s a clean fuel. The world wants to buy it. America is a safe source and has reliable long-term contract law.
Warren’s tweet puts energy capex on notice. Does she encourage investment in energy or discourage it? You know the answer.
Author: Robert Eisenbeis, Ph.D., Post Date: October 15, 2019As a follow-up to David Kotok’s piece last week on taxing wealth (https://www.cumber.com/cumberland-advisors-market-commentary-wealth-tax/), it may be useful to remind readers what the potential incentive effects might be when it comes to the implications of wealth tax proposals to tax wealth may have on entrepreneurs and business structures. Proponents of a wealth tax are motivated by the need to finance what is now a growing federal deficit as well as to address what is perceived to be a problem with growing wealth inequality in today’s economy.
Two of the proposals that are more easy to understand and calibrate are those put forward by Senators Bernie Sanders (https://berniesanders.com/issues/tax-extreme-wealth/) and Elizabeth Warren (https://elizabethwarren.com/plans/ultra-millionaire-tax). The Sanders proposal contains a progressive tax with a maximum of 8% on net worth over $10 billion, declining gradually to 2% for families with net worth between $50 and $250 million. The Warren proposal is less progressive, with a 2% tax for households with net worth between $50 million and $1 billion and a 3% tax on net worth above $1 billion. While the plans seem quite different, we can plot what might happen over time to the net worth of households that started with $10 billion of net worth. The chart below shows the path for net worth under both plans over the most relevant range.[1]
The Sanders’ plan would halve net worth in about 11 years while the Warren plan would halve net worth in about 23 years. It is important to recognize that these are maximum-impact cases, since the analysis ignores any investment returns or other sources of growth in the value of wealth.
Bloomberg-Expect Markets to go Higher – Kotok (Radio)
Author: David R. Kotok, Post Date: October 13, 2019Cumberland Advisors’ David R. Kotok says the moves we have heard on trade are lacking in substance, but the market has still been given some comfort.
He goes on to his expectations for a strengthening energy sector.
It’s that time of year when the Team at Cumberland Advisors provide their Q3 Reviews. We may discuss what we favor, cash positions, warning signs, and what we see as opportunities. Read to learn more about the thinking behind our positioning of portfolios and how we execute strategies. https://www.cumber.com/2019-q3-reviews Reviews cover the strategies that follow.
Links to other websites or electronic media controlled or offered by Third-Parties (non-affiliates of Cumberland Advisors) are provided only as a reference and courtesy to our users. Cumberland Advisors has no control over such websites, does not recommend or endorse any opinions, ideas, products, information, or content of such sites, and makes no warranties as to the accuracy, completeness, reliability or suitability of their content. Cumberland Advisors hereby disclaims liability for any information, materials, products or services posted or offered at any of the Third-Party websites. The Third-Party may have a privacy and/or security policy different from that of Cumberland Advisors. Therefore, please refer to the specific privacy and security policies of the Third-Party when accessing their websites.
Cumberland Advisors Market Commentaries offer insights and analysis on upcoming, important economic issues that potentially impact global financial markets. Our team shares their thinking on global economic developments, market news and other factors that often influence investment opportunities and strategies.
The Cumberland Advisors Week in Review is a recap of news, commentary, and opinion from our team.
These are not revised assessments, and circumstances may have changed in the market from the time of original publication. We also include older commentaries that our editors have determined may be of interest to our audience. Your feedback is always welcome.
As part of Cumberland Advisors’ continuous effort to maintain strong customer relationships, we offer this week’s short video discussing current market conditions and how we are positioning portfolios.
In this week’s review, Matt talks about:
-What encourages us?
-What causes a “higher-low”?
-Where are we stuck?
-Let’s talk about stepping back and recency bias.
-We share some charts from Dorsey Wright and look at performance.
-Where should allocations have been made at various times?
-Flexibility and the ability to always take a look at multiple asset classes and try to analyze risk and reward is necessary for long-term performance.
-Enjoyed our time at recent Sarasota Chamber of Commerce get-together and we want to share our favorite quote from guest speaker, Tony Moore.
-“What got you here, won’t get you there.” -TM
-Matt paraphrases, “What got you here investing-wise, may not get you there in the future.”
-Email us at info@cumber.com or give us a call at (800) 257-7013
Enjoy your weekend and please send us your questions and comments. We thank you for joining us!
It’s that time of year when the Team at Cumberland Advisors provide their Q3 Reviews. We may discuss what we favor, cash positions, warning signs, and what we see as opportunities. Read to learn more about the thinking behind our positioning of portfolios and how we execute strategies. https://www.cumber.com/2019-q3-reviews Reviews cover the strategies that follow.
We invite you to visit our YouTube channel and explore the“Camp Kotok” video playlist. This playlist is comprised of Camp Kotok interviews with guests and “campers” who participate and enjoy sharing with us. We also include panel talks, scenes from the location in Maine, and other snippets we find interesting. Enjoy! #CampKotok
Democratic presidential candidates Castro, Sanders, and Warren have explicitly sponsored wealth taxation.
Readers may view the candidates’ proposals at their campaign websites:
The Federal Reserve Bank of New York announced on Friday, Oct 4 that it would continue to offer a maximum of $75 billion in overnight repurchase agreements and at the same time offer a series of term repos through at least November 4 according to the following schedule:[1]
This extension seems to be an attempt to use the market to determine exactly how much excess collateral is in the financial system that needs to be financed. The term repos are a way of sterilizing a large portion of the excess supply of securities and then the overnight repos provide some indication of how much funding may or may not be available on the margin. The following chart provides some clues as to the maximum amount of financing that the Fed may be willing to provide and represents an experiment to let the market determine, given the lack of bank financing that is apparently quite scarce for this market, how big a facility might be necessary to support the primary dealers.
Links to other websites or electronic media controlled or offered by Third-Parties (non-affiliates of Cumberland Advisors) are provided only as a reference and courtesy to our users. Cumberland Advisors has no control over such websites, does not recommend or endorse any opinions, ideas, products, information, or content of such sites, and makes no warranties as to the accuracy, completeness, reliability or suitability of their content. Cumberland Advisors hereby disclaims liability for any information, materials, products or services posted or offered at any of the Third-Party websites. The Third-Party may have a privacy and/or security policy different from that of Cumberland Advisors. Therefore, please refer to the specific privacy and security policies of the Third-Party when accessing their websites.
Cumberland Advisors Market Commentaries offer insights and analysis on upcoming, important economic issues that potentially impact global financial markets. Our team shares their thinking on global economic developments, market news and other factors that often influence investment opportunities and strategies.
Matt McAleer, Executive Vice President & Director of Equity Strategies for Cumberland Advisors, appears on the TD Ameritrade Network, September 26th, to discuss investing in international equities.
Links to other websites or electronic media controlled or offered by Third-Parties (non-affiliates of Cumberland Advisors) are provided only as a reference and courtesy to our users. Cumberland Advisors has no control over such websites, does not recommend or endorse any opinions, ideas, products, information, or content of such sites, and makes no warranties as to the accuracy, completeness, reliability or suitability of their content. Cumberland Advisors hereby disclaims liability for any information, materials, products or services posted or offered at any of the Third-Party websites. The Third-Party may have a privacy and/or security policy different from that of Cumberland Advisors. Therefore, please refer to the specific privacy and security policies of the Third-Party when accessing their websites.
Cumberland Advisors Market Commentaries offer insights and analysis on upcoming, important economic issues that potentially impact global financial markets. Our team shares their thinking on global economic developments, market news and other factors that often influence investment opportunities and strategies.
Yahoo Finance Highlight: FAANG stocks hit hard by U.S.-China trade war
August 6, 2019
Watch the embedded video from Yahoo Finance below.
Tech stocks take a beating as the trade war drags on. Yahoo Finance s Julie Hyman, Adam Shapiro, Sibili Marcellus and David Kotok of Cumberland Advisors discuss.
Links to other websites or electronic media controlled or offered by Third-Parties (non-affiliates of Cumberland Advisors) are provided only as a reference and courtesy to our users. Cumberland Advisors has no control over such websites, does not recommend or endorse any opinions, ideas, products, information, or content of such sites, and makes no warranties as to the accuracy, completeness, reliability or suitability of their content. Cumberland Advisors hereby disclaims liability for any information, materials, products or services posted or offered at any of the Third-Party websites. The Third-Party may have a privacy and/or security policy different from that of Cumberland Advisors. Therefore, please refer to the specific privacy and security policies of the Third-Party when accessing their websites.
Cumberland Advisors Market Commentaries offer insights and analysis on upcoming, important economic issues that potentially impact global financial markets. Our team shares their thinking on global economic developments, market news and other factors that often influence investment opportunities and strategies.
Yahoo Finance Highlight: Fed Chairs warn Washington that meddling could lead to market instability
Watch the embedded video from Yahoo Finance below.
An unprecedented op-ed in the Wall Street Journal, penned by Former Fed Chairs, call for the Central Bank to remain independent. Yahoo Finance’s Julie Hyman, Adam Shapiro, Sibilie Macellus, Brian Cheung and David Kotok of Cumberland Advisors discuss.
Links to other websites or electronic media controlled or offered by Third-Parties (non-affiliates of Cumberland Advisors) are provided only as a reference and courtesy to our users. Cumberland Advisors has no control over such websites, does not recommend or endorse any opinions, ideas, products, information, or content of such sites, and makes no warranties as to the accuracy, completeness, reliability or suitability of their content. Cumberland Advisors hereby disclaims liability for any information, materials, products or services posted or offered at any of the Third-Party websites. The Third-Party may have a privacy and/or security policy different from that of Cumberland Advisors. Therefore, please refer to the specific privacy and security policies of the Third-Party when accessing their websites.
Cumberland Advisors Market Commentaries offer insights and analysis on upcoming, important economic issues that potentially impact global financial markets. Our team shares their thinking on global economic developments, market news and other factors that often influence investment opportunities and strategies.
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