Dec 31, 2019
John R. Mousseau sums up performance for municipal bonds and talks about Cumberland Advisors’ defensive strategy.
Posted on: 12/31/2019
Watch Video 
The Cumberland Advisors Week in Review is a recap of news, commentary, and opinion from our team.
These are not revised assessments, and circumstances may have changed in the market from the time of original publication. We also include older commentaries that our editors have determined may be of interest to our audience. Your feedback is always welcome.
As part of Cumberland Advisors’ continuous effort to maintain strong customer relationships, we offer this week’s short video discussing current market conditions and how we are positioning portfolios.
Matt McAleer is on deck to share his week in trading with you along with other thoughts.
* Can’t ask for anything more from the broad indexes/sectors across the board
* Even defensive sectors in this rally are acting well
* Good performance in strategies
* Long term risk-reward appears positive
* What concerns us? Sentiment. Equity-only put-call ratios.
* We used to call equity-only put-call ratio speculators, “Janis Joplins” because they were “Busted flat in Baton Rouge”
* Why “Janis Joplins”? Matt explains!
* Is there anything you’d like us to discuss?
* Feel free to forward our videos to other traders and investors that might find them helpful.
Watch in the video player above or at this link: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=o5VwjVapUbY
Have a great weekend and thank you for joining us at Cumberland Advisors.
-Matt McAleer
Matt enjoys your feedback. You can reach him at:
-Link to Matt’s Email: Matthew.McAleer@Cumber.com
-Link to Matt’s Twitter: https://twitter.com/MattMcAleer4
-Link to Matt’s LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/matthew-c-mcaleer/
-Call Matt: (800) 257-7013
Other questions or comments? Email us at info@cumber.com or give us a call at (800) 257-7013.
Quoted: David R. Kotok – 12/27/2019
Quoted: David R. Kotok – 12/24/2019
Quoted: John R. Mousseau, CFA – 12/18/2019
Quoted: David R. Kotok – 12/16/2019
Quoted: David R. Kotok – 12/11/2019
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David R. Kotok offers this ongoing series of “Year-End & 2020 Forecast Notes” for your consideration.
This holiday season has come with ill tidings with respect to gun violence: “At least 28 people were wounded in 3 separate shootings across these 3 states this weekend,” CNN, Dec. 23, 2019, https://www.cnn.com/2019/12/23/us/three-shootings-baltimore-minnesota-chicago/index.html “13 people were shot at a Chicago house party honoring a man killed earlier this year,” CNN, Dec. 22, 2019, https://www.cnn.com/2019/12/22/us/chicago-shooting-sunday/index.html [Continued…]
Markets greeted the most recent monthly employment report with a rousing cheer and a robust and broadening stock market rally; bonds reacted to an improved outlook based on this report; and interest rates rose while the futures market of the short-term policy rate (fed funds) adjusted to a lower likelihood of a rate cutting sequence [Continued…]
The worst-performing US stock market sector in 2019 is energy. In retrospect, we regret that we held a position in it. Our rationale failed so far and the timing was clearly poor. But we did hold energy and we do still do. Our focus has been on domestic US energy because we believed it is [Continued…]
The outlook for inflation and for inflation-sensitive financial instruments is still highly uncertain. Note that this prognosis includes TIPS on the bond side and certain inflation-sensitive stock groups on the equity side. The world’s mature economies have been trying to get inflation up to 2% or higher for many years. They’ve had no success. An [Continued…]
US politics will be a closely watched, bubbling pot in 2020, and the media will boil over every news item. That said, it is Super Tuesday (March 3) which becomes the key date for Democrats. Republican challengers to Trump seem to be non-starters as best as we can determine. Perhaps the New Hampshire or Massachusetts [Continued…]
In addition to Trade War uncertainty, US stock markets must grapple with problematic earnings estimates for 2020. Typical year-start estimates are higher than actual outcomes, as a bias toward optimism appears around the year-end holiday time. A good example is 2019, when year-start estimates for the S&P 500 were in the $174–178 range. The actual [Continued…]
In our opinion, investors should not be deceived by any promise of a definitive Trump Trade War settlement. It isn’t in the cards. The best outcome is a truce, and even that will be more like a ceasefire. As of this writing, U.S.-China tariff talks continue, and a phase one trade deal is still expected [Continued…]
John R. Mousseau, CFA, will be joining a large gathering of members of Wall Street’s financial community in Orlando this winter season for The MoneyShow Orlando 2020. The three days of the conference will focus on new investment ideas that address the current economic and geopolitical environment and will feature tools, strategies, and advice which may help you better position your portfolio.
John will be a featured speaker, giving a review of the bond market in the past year (2019) and what we should expect from the bond market in a presidential election year.
To join John in February 2020 or learn more, please visit: https://conferences.moneyshow.com/moneyshow-orlando/
In the famous 1939 movie Gone with the Wind, Scarlet O’Hara (Vivien Leigh) delivers this poignant entreaty to Rhett Butler (Clark Gable): “Where shall I go? What shall I do?” Rhett counters with the retort, “Frankly, my dear, I don’t give a damn.” A blockbuster line delivered in just seconds, it has endured for decades. [Continued…]
Links to other websites or electronic media controlled or offered by Third-Parties (non-affiliates of Cumberland Advisors) are provided only as a reference and courtesy to our users. Cumberland Advisors has no control over such websites, does not recommend or endorse any opinions, ideas, products, information, or content of such sites, and makes no warranties as to the accuracy, completeness, reliability or suitability of their content. Cumberland Advisors hereby disclaims liability for any information, materials, products or services posted or offered at any of the Third-Party websites. The Third-Party may have a privacy and/or security policy different from that of Cumberland Advisors. Therefore, please refer to the specific privacy and security policies of the Third-Party when accessing their websites.
Sign up for our FREE Cumberland Market Commentaries
Cumberland Advisors Market Commentaries offer insights and analysis on upcoming, important economic issues that potentially impact global financial markets. Our team shares their thinking on global economic developments, market news and other factors that often influence investment opportunities and strategies.
Posted on: 12/28/2019 Watch Video
The Cumberland Advisors Week in Review is a recap of news, commentary, and opinion from our team.
These are not revised assessments, and circumstances may have changed in the market from the time of original publication. We also include older commentaries that our editors have determined may be of interest to our audience. Your feedback is always welcome.
As part of Cumberland Advisors’ continuous effort to maintain strong customer relationships, we offer this week’s short video discussing current market conditions and how we are positioning portfolios.
This week, David R. Kotok and Matt McAleer set the stage for John R. Mousseau to cap the week and year for Bonds and Equities.
Watch in the video player above or at this link: https://youtu.be/Waj12ftYuHE
Would you like to leave a comment for John or David? Contact them or any one of our advisors by following this link: https://www.cumber.com/our-people/
Have a great weekend and thank you for joining us at Cumberland Advisors.
Matt enjoys your feedback. You can reach him at:
-Link to Matt’s Email: Matthew.McAleer@Cumber.com
-Link to Matt’s Twitter: https://twitter.com/MattMcAleer4
-Link to Matt’s LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/matthew-c-mcaleer/
-Call Matt: (800) 257-7013
Or email us at info@cumber.com or give us a call at (800) 257-7013
Quoted:John R. Mousseau, CFA – 12/17/2019
Quoted:David R. Kotok – 12/16/2019
Quoted:Todd Engelhardt – 12/05/2019
Quoted:Patricia Healy, CFA – 12/06/2019
Quoted:Cumberland Advisors – 12/05/2019
Quoted:David R. Kotok – 12/05/2019
Quoted:Todd Engelhardt – 12/05/2019
Quoted:David R. Kotok – 12/03/2019
In the famous 1939 movie Gone with the Wind, Scarlet O’Hara (Vivien Leigh) delivers this poignant entreaty to Rhett Butler (Clark Gable): “Where shall I go? What shall I do?” Rhett counters with the retort, “Frankly, my dear, I don’t give a damn.” A blockbuster line delivered in just seconds, it has endured for decades. [Continued…]
Over the last few decades, trust in key public institutions has been eroding. Here are some recent figures compiled by Gallup that document this trend: In 1973, 42% of respondents said that they had a “great deal or quite a lot” of confidence in Congress. In 2019, only 11% expressed that level of confidence. In [Continued…]
Many have written, interviewed, and commented about the passing of Paul Volcker. We particularly like the commentary of Chris Whalen, who knew him better than many and whose family had connections with Paul Volcker over the years. We also note our GIC colleague Catherine Mann’s remembrance. Cathy, that was an interesting haircut “back when.” At [Continued…]
“Boring” was how commentators on at least one network characterized the FOMC’s December 11th decision to hold rates constant. It was, in fact, a no-brainer decision given the strong labor market, which created 266 thousand jobs in November; strong consumer spending based upon the Black Friday and Cyber Monday sales data; an unemployment rate at [Continued…]
Cumberland Advisors’ David R. Kotok talks about negative interest rates, NIRP, and says the European Central Bank’s (ECB) Christine Lagarde has a difficult task right now.
He also discusses China, the pork shortage, and the impact of viruses on the global food supply.
Running time 25:02, David is introduced at the 10:45 mark – Play Episode: https://www.bloomberg.com/news/audio/2019-11-27/surveillance-negative-interest-rates-with-kotok-podcast
Also see David’s Nov 25, 2019 commentary on NIRP: https://www.cumber.com/cumberland-advisors-market-commentary-nirp-lagarde-trump-dickens-holidays/
Author: Michael McNiven, Post Date: September 20, 2012
We had the opportunity to attend the Global Interdependence Center’s conference in Accra, Ghana in partnership with Sanford Health, the largest rural healthcare provider in the US, with headquarters in Sioux Falls, South Dakota. Sanford Health is a not-for-profit system that operates over 37 hospitals, clinics, and services in the North Dakota, South Dakota, western Minnesota, northwest Iowa, and northeast Nebraska geographical area. Sanford Health has also launched its Sanford World Clinics effort, to provide primary-care services in multiple locations around the globe.
Issues of health and wellness can be profound and truly impactful to individuals and nations. The conference was specifically focused on the issue of providing a sustainable model for permanent healthcare infrastructure. The intent of the organizers and the participants was to discuss specific and real methods for alleviating human suffering, to improve the human condition, and to do good in the world. Featured speakers at the conference included representatives from the Ghana Ministry of Health (www.moh-ghana.org), the Ghana National Health Insurance Scheme (NHIS – www.nhis.gov.gh), the Women’s World Health Initiative (WWHI – focuses on maternal health, with emphasis in Senegal; www.wwhi.org), USAID in Ghana (http://ghana.usaid.gov), DocuTap (a provider of electronic medical records (www.docutap.com), and Sanford Health (www.sanfordhealth.org). Attendees included GIC members, American Chamber of Commerce in Ghana personnel, local business owners, church officials, and other Ghanaian citizens and organizations interested in healthcare issues. We encourage readers to explore these organizations’ websites to see the interesting and varied work they do.
The dialogue was vigorous as various approaches and topics were explored. It was clear that a need exists to regularly convene such dialogues among the stakeholders, both regionally and beyond. [Continued…]
Links to other websites or electronic media controlled or offered by Third-Parties (non-affiliates of Cumberland Advisors) are provided only as a reference and courtesy to our users. Cumberland Advisors has no control over such websites, does not recommend or endorse any opinions, ideas, products, information, or content of such sites, and makes no warranties as to the accuracy, completeness, reliability or suitability of their content. Cumberland Advisors hereby disclaims liability for any information, materials, products or services posted or offered at any of the Third-Party websites. The Third-Party may have a privacy and/or security policy different from that of Cumberland Advisors. Therefore, please refer to the specific privacy and security policies of the Third-Party when accessing their websites.
Sign up for our FREE Cumberland Market Commentaries
Cumberland Advisors Market Commentaries offer insights and analysis on upcoming, important economic issues that potentially impact global financial markets. Our team shares their thinking on global economic developments, market news and other factors that often influence investment opportunities and strategies.
Watch Video
The Cumberland Advisors Week in Review is a recap of news, commentary, and opinion from our team.
These are not revised assessments, and circumstances may have changed in the market from the time of original publication. We also include older commentaries that our editors have determined may be of interest to our audience. Your feedback is always welcome.
As part of Cumberland Advisors’ continuous effort to maintain strong customer relationships, we offer this week’s short video discussing current market conditions and how we are positioning portfolios.
This week, we talk about how we trade news and noise.
After 3 years of BREXIT worry and 18 months of China negotiations, we’ve got a little resolution. However…
-We don’t trade BREXIT
-We don’t trade GDP
-We don’t trade economic numbers
-We trade securities – Matt explains
We look at charts, SPY, our cash levels, sectors showing good relative strength vs SPY, International, Bonds (Fixed Income) and more.
So, how do we trade news and noise? We have to look at, not what the news is, but how the market trades on that news.
Watch in the video player above or at this link: https://youtu.be/ZVKXUHbwSYE
Have a great weekend and thank you for joining us at Cumberland Advisors.
-Matt McAleer
Matt enjoys your feedback. You can reach him at:
-Link to Matt’s Email: Matthew.McAleer@Cumber.com
-Link to Matt’s Twitter: https://twitter.com/MattMcAleer4
-Link to Matt’s LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/matthew-c-mcaleer/
-Call Matt: (800) 257-7013
Other questions or comments? Email us at info@cumber.com or give us a call at (800) 257-7013.
Quoted: David R. Kotok | Posted on: 12/11/2019
Quoted:Patricia Healy, CFA – 12/06/2019
Quoted:Cumberland Advisors – 12/05/2019
Quoted:David R. Kotok – 12/05/2019
Quoted:Todd Engelhardt – 12/05/2019
Quoted:David R. Kotok – 12/03/2019
Sign up for our Market Commentary
David R. Kotok offers this ongoing series of “Year-End & 2020 Forecast Notes” for your consideration.
Markets greeted the most recent monthly employment report with a rousing cheer and a robust and broadening stock market rally; bonds reacted to an improved outlook based on this report; and interest rates rose while the futures market of the short-term policy rate (fed funds) adjusted to a lower likelihood of a rate cutting sequence [Continued…]
The worst-performing US stock market sector in 2019 is energy. In retrospect, we regret that we held a position in it. Our rationale failed so far and the timing was clearly poor. But we did hold energy and we do still do. Our focus has been on domestic US energy because we believed it is [Continued…]
The outlook for inflation and for inflation-sensitive financial instruments is still highly uncertain. Note that this prognosis includes TIPS on the bond side and certain inflation-sensitive stock groups on the equity side. The world’s mature economies have been trying to get inflation up to 2% or higher for many years. They’ve had no success. An [Continued…]
US politics will be a closely watched, bubbling pot in 2020, and the media will boil over every news item. That said, it is Super Tuesday (March 3) which becomes the key date for Democrats. Republican challengers to Trump seem to be non-starters as best as we can determine. Perhaps the New Hampshire or Massachusetts [Continued…]
In addition to Trade War uncertainty, US stock markets must grapple with problematic earnings estimates for 2020. Typical year-start estimates are higher than actual outcomes, as a bias toward optimism appears around the year-end holiday time. A good example is 2019, when year-start estimates for the S&P 500 were in the $174–178 range. The actual [Continued…]
In our opinion, investors should not be deceived by any promise of a definitive Trump Trade War settlement. It isn’t in the cards. The best outcome is a truce, and even that will be more like a ceasefire. As of this writing, U.S.-China tariff talks continue, and a phase one trade deal is still expected [Continued…]
John R. Mousseau, CFA, will be joining a large gathering of members of Wall Street’s financial community in Orlando this winter season for The MoneyShow Orlando 2020. The three days of the conference will focus on new investment ideas that address the current economic and geopolitical environment and will feature tools, strategies, and advice which may help you better position your portfolio.
John will be a featured speaker, giving a review of the bond market in the past year (2019) and what we should expect from the bond market in a presidential election year.
To join John in February 2020 or learn more, please visit: https://conferences.moneyshow.com/moneyshow-orlando/
Cumberland Advisors Chairman David Kotok discusses London businesses and markets amid Brexit tensions. He also discusses China and how global markets and trade have changed.
Links to other websites or electronic media controlled or offered by Third-Parties (non-affiliates of Cumberland Advisors) are provided only as a reference and courtesy to our users. Cumberland Advisors has no control over such websites, does not recommend or endorse any opinions, ideas, products, information, or content of such sites, and makes no warranties as to the accuracy, completeness, reliability or suitability of their content. Cumberland Advisors hereby disclaims liability for any information, materials, products or services posted or offered at any of the Third-Party websites. The Third-Party may have a privacy and/or security policy different from that of Cumberland Advisors. Therefore, please refer to the specific privacy and security policies of the Third-Party when accessing their websites.
Sign up for our FREE Cumberland Market Commentaries
Cumberland Advisors Market Commentaries offer insights and analysis on upcoming, important economic issues that potentially impact global financial markets. Our team shares their thinking on global economic developments, market news and other factors that often influence investment opportunities and strategies.
Posted on: 12/14/2019 Watch Video
The Cumberland Advisors Week in Review is a recap of news, commentary, and opinion from our team.
These are not revised assessments, and circumstances may have changed in the market from the time of original publication. We also include older commentaries that our editors have determined may be of interest to our audience. Your feedback is always welcome.
As part of Cumberland Advisors’ continuous effort to maintain strong customer relationships, we offer this week’s short video discussing current market conditions and how we are positioning portfolios.
Employment report out today. Nice surprise!
This week, we talk about:
-Bonds, inflation, and the yield curve
-Do we see a buying opportunity?
-Equities – Growth, Value, and some comparisons
-When the market starts to rally, money’s chasing growth
-The Employment Report
-Lingering Trade War effects?
Watch in the video player above or at this link: https://youtu.be/eYiWAn4Bzik
Have a great weekend and thank you for joining us at Cumberland Advisors.
Matt enjoys your feedback. You can reach him at:
-Link to Matt’s Email: Matthew.McAleer@Cumber.com
-Link to Matt’s Twitter: https://twitter.com/MattMcAleer4
-Link to Matt’s LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/matthew-c-mcaleer/
-Call Matt: (800) 257-7013
Or email us at info@cumber.com or give us a call at (800) 257-7013
David R. Kotok offers this ongoing series of “Year-End & 2020 Forecast Notes” for your consideration. More to come!
The outlook for inflation and for inflation-sensitive financial instruments is still highly uncertain. Note that this prognosis includes TIPS on the bond side and certain inflation-sensitive stock groups on the equity side. The world’s mature economies have been trying to get inflation up to 2% or higher for many years. They’ve had no success. An [Continued…]
US politics will be a closely watched, bubbling pot in 2020, and the media will boil over every news item. That said, it is Super Tuesday (March 3) which becomes the key date for Democrats. Republican challengers to Trump seem to be non-starters as best as we can determine. Perhaps the New Hampshire or Massachusetts [Continued…]
In addition to Trade War uncertainty, US stock markets must grapple with problematic earnings estimates for 2020. Typical year-start estimates are higher than actual outcomes, as a bias toward optimism appears around the year-end holiday time. A good example is 2019, when year-start estimates for the S&P 500 were in the $174–178 range. The actual [Continued…]
In our opinion, investors should not be deceived by any promise of a definitive Trump Trade War settlement. It isn’t in the cards. The best outcome is a truce, and even that will be more like a ceasefire. As of this writing, U.S.-China tariff talks continue, and a phase one trade deal is still expected [Continued…]
John R. Mousseau, CFA, will be joining a large gathering of members of Wall Street’s financial community in Orlando this winter season for The MoneyShow Orlando 2020. The three days of the conference will focus on new investment ideas that address the current economic and geopolitical environment and will feature tools, strategies, and advice which may help you better position your portfolio.
John will be a featured speaker, giving a review of the bond market in the past year (2019) and what we should expect from the bond market in a presidential election year.
To join John in February 2020 or learn more, please visit: https://conferences.moneyshow.com/moneyshow-orlando/
Cumberland Advisors’ David R. Kotok talks about negative interest rates, NIRP, and says the European Central Bank’s (ECB) Christine Lagarde has a difficult task right now.
He also discusses China, the pork shortage, and the impact of viruses on the global food supply.
Running time 25:02, David is introduced at the 10:45 mark – Play Episode: https://www.bloomberg.com/news/audio/2019-11-27/surveillance-negative-interest-rates-with-kotok-podcast
Also see David’s Nov 25, 2019 commentary on NIRP: https://www.cumber.com/cumberland-advisors-market-commentary-nirp-lagarde-trump-dickens-holidays/
Author: Bob Eisenbeis, Post Date: December 4, 2008
Several years ago I had an occasion to go on a mission for the IMF to the Central Bank of India, headquartered in Mumbai. It was the second week of December, so it was past the rainy season and the weather was warm, with temperatures in the high 80s and low 90s. That India is the scene of so many incidents of unrest and violence should not be surprising. The wide disparity of income plus the long history of the caste system and discrimination against various ethnic and religious groups is a hard legacy to shake. Poverty hits you even as you land at the airport in Mumbai. At the end of the runway were many acres of tents made out of black plastic garbage bags, which were homes to many. It hits you again on the drive into the city from the airport. A similar sight awaits you in downtown Mumbai from the Central Bank of India, which overlooked a similar several-acre tent city.
Because it was the dry season, work had begun on road repairs. Instead of dump trucks, however, I saw on the way in from the airport many women dressed in colorful saris, each with a basket of dirt on her head, performing the dump trucks’ tasks. [Continued…]
Links to other websites or electronic media controlled or offered by Third-Parties (non-affiliates of Cumberland Advisors) are provided only as a reference and courtesy to our users. Cumberland Advisors has no control over such websites, does not recommend or endorse any opinions, ideas, products, information, or content of such sites, and makes no warranties as to the accuracy, completeness, reliability or suitability of their content. Cumberland Advisors hereby disclaims liability for any information, materials, products or services posted or offered at any of the Third-Party websites. The Third-Party may have a privacy and/or security policy different from that of Cumberland Advisors. Therefore, please refer to the specific privacy and security policies of the Third-Party when accessing their websites.
Sign up for our FREE Cumberland Market Commentaries
Cumberland Advisors Market Commentaries offer insights and analysis on upcoming, important economic issues that potentially impact global financial markets. Our team shares their thinking on global economic developments, market news and other factors that often influence investment opportunities and strategies.
Posted on: 12/07/2019 Watch Video
The Cumberland Advisors Week in Review is a recap of news, commentary, and opinion from our team.
These are not revised assessments, and circumstances may have changed in the market from the time of original publication. We also include older commentaries that our editors have determined may be of interest to our audience. Your feedback is always welcome.
As part of Cumberland Advisors’ continuous effort to maintain strong customer relationships, we offer this week’s short video discussing current market conditions and how we are positioning portfolios.
Welcome back from Thanksgiving!
This week, we talk about:
-What might be coming up next week that could be a cause for concern
-What we see this week in the market that we liked, including
—Small Cap & Mid Cap continue their bid (they had been poor relative performers vs. S&P/Large Cap)
—Biotech in particular had a nice bid this week
-On the international scene, the August bottom in Europe looks like it’s holding
—Much of the negative rates we’ve seen have improved
-Asia may continue to win/lose, reacting to trade talks
-Pullbacks
Watch in the video player above or at this link: https://youtu.be/yVz47LfUHuw
Have a great weekend and thank you for joining us at Cumberland Advisors.
Matt enjoys your feedback. You can reach him at:
-Link to Matt’s Email: Matthew.McAleer@Cumber.com
-Link to Matt’s Twitter: https://twitter.com/MattMcAleer4
-Link to Matt’s LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/matthew-c-mcaleer/
-Call Matt: (800) 257-7013
Or email us at info@cumber.com or give us a call at (800) 257-7013
Yahoo Finance Highlight: The trade war rages on Nov 22, 2019
Watch the video from Yahoo Finance at this link: https://finance.yahoo.com/video/trade-war-rages-141444340.html
Yahoo Finance’s Adam Shapiro, Julie Hyman, Dan Roberts and Cumberland Advisors Chairman & CIO David Kotok discuss how the trade war has ruined relations between the U.S. and China and how [Continued…]
On December 12th, UK voters will participate in a general election to determine the composition of the next government. The manifestos of both the Conservative Party and the Labor Party contain elements that should concern investors. Jeremy Corbyn’s hard-left Labor Party intends to convert the UK into a socialist economy through sweeping nationalizations (railways, broadband [Continued…] https://www.cumber.com/cumberland-advisors-market-commentary-uk-voters-dilemma-johnson-or-corbyn/
Negative-interest-rate policies (NIRP) have been criticized by some (me included) and pursued by others, including Europeans aligned with former European Central Bank (ECB) president Mario Draghi. However, growing numbers of Europeans are becoming disenchanted with NIRP, and some are now shifting away from it. In our view, negative rates have, predictably, damaged growth for over five years. The ECB’s new president, Christine Lagarde, seems to understand that she faces a daunting task in extricating ECB policy from reliance upon negative rates.
Here is an excerpt from her first speech:
“In my view, since our challenges are common ones, we must meet them with a common response. This involves moving towards a new European policy mix, which has a number of key elements. The first is monetary policy, which I start with because it is my area of responsibility and which will undergo a strategic review due to begin in the near future.”
Hat tip to Kevin Humphreys for the reference. Kevin is manager, European money markets, for BGC Partners. He is based in London. Kevin has kindly given us permission to share his observations with our readers. We completely agree with his view.
“Having had a few references of late from board members to potential side-effects of European Central Bank monetary policy, it was perhaps of little surprise that the ECB in their financial stability report should highlight that sub-zero interest rates have forced large investors to take on more risks and businesses to take on more debt. Equally unremarkable were the other two main observations, that bank profitability prospects have weakened and that mispriced assets may represent a vulnerability.
[Continued…] https://www.cumber.com/cumberland-advisors-market-commentary-nirp-lagarde-trump-dickens-holidays/
John R. Mousseau, CFA, will be joining a large gathering of members of Wall Street’s financial community in Orlando this winter season for The MoneyShow Orlando 2020. The three days of the conference will focus on new investment ideas that address the current economic and geopolitical environment and will feature tools, strategies, and advice which may help you better position your portfolio.
John will be a featured speaker, giving a review of the bond market in the past year (2019) and what we should expect from the bond market in a presidential election year.
To join John in February 2020 or learn more, please visit: https://conferences.moneyshow.com/moneyshow-orlando/
Cumberland Advisors’ David R. Kotok talks about negative interest rates, NIRP, and says the European Central Bank’s (ECB) Christine Lagarde has a difficult task right now.
He also discusses China, the pork shortage, and the impact of viruses on the global food supply.
Running time 25:02, David is introduced at the 10:45 mark – Play Episode: https://www.bloomberg.com/news/audio/2019-11-27/surveillance-negative-interest-rates-with-kotok-podcast
Also see David’s Nov 25, 2019 commentary on NIRP: https://www.cumber.com/cumberland-advisors-market-commentary-nirp-lagarde-trump-dickens-holidays/
From Yahoo Finance
Charles Schwab is reportedly buying TD Ameritrade. “The hidden piece of this for investors is the yield on the money market fund, the yield on the sweep,” @CumberlandADV Chiarman David Kotok says. “And they tend not to look at it, and so there’s a widening margin.”
Highlight: Charles Schwab is reportedly buying TD Ameritrade. “The hidden piece of this for investors is the yield on the money market fund, the yield on the sweep,” @CumberlandADV Chiarman David Kotok says. “And they tend not to look at it, and so there’s a widening margin.” pic.twitter.com/HxwdouQX1p
— Yahoo Finance (@YahooFinance) November 21, 2019
Nov, 25 2019
Author: Adam Button
There haven’t been any victories in the negative-rate world.
The ultimate test of any theory is in the results.
The idea behind negative interest rates is that they will spur borrowing and economic activity, leading to inflation and a weaker currency.
It may be too soon to judge the results but the early returns are poor. Earlier this month the CME looked at the results of negative rates in four regions: the eurozone, Japan, Sweden and Switzerland. They all went negative between 2014 and 2016.
None of the four “have achieved their inflation targets as a result of negative deposit rates,” the CME writes.
Moreover, the negative-rate experiment so far has failed to stimulate growth sustainably. Early returns in Japan, the eurozone and Sweden were solid but GDP has slumped back close to zero.
David Kotok of Cumberland Advisors is out with a paper attacking negative rates.
The notional pricing of the trillions of dollars and euros in swaps and derivatives is thrown into disarray. As a result, the banks and market agents sponsoring those derivatives must raise their pricing to protect themselves from this added risk induced by NIRP. When they raise their pricing, they add to transactional costs and therefore suppress economic activity at the margin. That is a reason NIRP slows growth and raises risk.
Read the full article at ForexLive’s website: https://www.forexlive.com/news/!/negative-interest-rates-arent-working-20191125
Jim Roemer (A.K.A. Dr. Weather) has been forecasting for the commodity and ski industry for over 30 years . He splits his time between Sarasota, Florida and Vermont, and has a deep passion and concern about the environment and climate. We found his work titled, “Florida’s Red Tide: Possible causes, Who’s to blame? Implications to humans and how it can be resolved,” to be interesting and of interest to our audience. With his permission and our thanks to Jim, we share it with you today. You can find out more about Jim Roemer at his website, https://www.bestweatherinc.com.
John R. Mousseau, CFA
President and CEO
Email | Bio
As a steward of trying to bring more awareness to people about global warming and protecting our environment, seeing and smelling, the Red Tide Algae in Florida, is particularly bothersome.
THE FIRST THING you notice is the smell. It’s not a scent, exactly, but a tingling in the nose that quickly spreads to the throat and burns the lungs. But then you see the carcasses.
I moved to Florida 10 years ago to enjoy the Florida beaches, but have seen first hand how Red Tide has gotten worse over the years. In the past, hurricanes such as Katrina, Irma, etc. were thought to add to the problem, but actually, we need some sort of tropical weather system to churn up the waters. This would potentially mix up and move toxins, if only temporarily. It’s ironic to think about a hurricane actually benefiting Florida, after the many disasters the Sunshine State has witnessed over the years. However, a weak system could actually be beneficial to Florida.
RED TIDE–“It’s killing sea life, battering our economy and making people sick,” says a recent Florida TV ad. “Red tide continues to devastate our area. And many feel it’s fair to blame Rick Scott.” The blame assertion is lifted from an Orlando Sentinel editorial, which appears on screen.
[Continued…] https://www.cumber.com/floridas-red-tide-possible-causes-whos-to-blame/
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Cumberland Advisors Market Commentaries offer insights and analysis on upcoming, important economic issues that potentially impact global financial markets. Our team shares their thinking on global economic developments, market news and other factors that often influence investment opportunities and strategies.
Posted on: 11/30/2019 Watch Video
![David Kotok on Yahoo Finance: Trade War Rages On [Video]](https://www.cumber.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/11/CA-David-Kotok-Yahoo-Finance-Trade-War-Rages-On-Video.jpg)
Watch the embedded video from Yahoo Finance below or at this link: https://finance.yahoo.com/video/trade-war-rages-141444340.html
Yahoo Finance’s Adam Shapiro, Julie Hyman, Dan Roberts and Cumberland Advisors Chairman & CIO David Kotok discuss how the trade war has ruined relations between the U.S. and China and how China’s purchasing of soybeans from Brazil puts pressure on the Amazon Rain Forrest.
Links to other websites or electronic media controlled or offered by Third-Parties (non-affiliates of Cumberland Advisors) are provided only as a reference and courtesy to our users. Cumberland Advisors has no control over such websites, does not recommend or endorse any opinions, ideas, products, information, or content of such sites, and makes no warranties as to the accuracy, completeness, reliability or suitability of their content. Cumberland Advisors hereby disclaims liability for any information, materials, products or services posted or offered at any of the Third-Party websites. The Third-Party may have a privacy and/or security policy different from that of Cumberland Advisors. Therefore, please refer to the specific privacy and security policies of the Third-Party when accessing their websites.
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Cumberland Advisors Market Commentaries offer insights and analysis on upcoming, important economic issues that potentially impact global financial markets. Our team shares their thinking on global economic developments, market news and other factors that often influence investment opportunities and strategies.
Posted on: 11/27/2019 Watch Video
The Cumberland Advisors Week in Review is a recap of news, commentary, and opinion from our team.
These are not revised assessments, and circumstances may have changed in the market from the time of original publication. We also include older commentaries that our editors have determined may be of interest to our audience. Your feedback is always welcome.
As part of Cumberland Advisors’ continuous effort to maintain strong customer relationships, we offer this week’s short video discussing current market conditions and how we are positioning portfolios.
-Where our Quant Strategy started with Leo Chen Ph.D.
-What are “buy” signals in our Quant work?
-What are “sell” or “exit” signals in our Quant work?
-Matt outlines what sectors we’re in in response to our Quant work
Thanks for taking the time to join us!
Watch and comment online at: https://youtu.be/krnZG0DiKlU
Matt enjoys your feedback. You can reach him at:
-Link to Matt’s Email: Matthew.McAleer@Cumber.com
-Link to Matt’s Twitter: https://twitter.com/MattMcAleer4
-Link to Matt’s LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/matthew-c-mcaleer/
-Call Matt: (800) 257-7013
Or email us at info@cumber.com or give us a call at (800) 257-7013
Cumberland Advisors’ Patricia Healy, CFA and Norman Dempsey, MBA, attended the Indus Entrepreneurs (TiE) “Talk” in celebration of Global Entrepreneurship Week. The event was titled, “Funding Continuum and Landscape for Startups” and was held at the USF Sarasota-Manatee campus.
Patricia Healy (on the right) is pictured with Sara Hand of Spark Growth, TiE Tampa Bay Conference Program Chair, along with USF Sarasota-Manatee’s Dr. Greg Smogard, their innovation and business development officer.
Cumberland Advisors’ team members enjoy interacting within the communities in which we live, work and play whether it be chambers of commerce, museums, educational institutions, non-profits, or others. Watch for more collaboration with USF including Cumberland Advisors’ “Fourth Annual Financial Literacy Day: Understanding Global Markets and Finance” coming February 2020. We hope to see you around town!
Barron’s excerpt: Municipal Bonds could provide some protection against higher taxes should Elizabeth Warren become the next president. That’s the view of John R. Mousseau, president, CEO, and director of fixed income at Cumberland Advisors.
Read more: https://www.cumber.com/barrons-worried-about-a-bear-market-bonds-pose-more-danger-than-stocks/
David Kotok joins Bloomberg Daybreak: Australia to discuss the US-China trade relationship.
“Our view is, a full trade arrangement with China has eluded us; it’s gone. Businesses are now making decisions about location around the world. They’re changing what they’re doing. The United States is now collecting a sales tax on Americans, masquerading as a tariff. And the amount in the tariff is now paying approximately 1/4 of the interest bill on American borrowings and we have a rising deficit. And you hear the president say we’re collecting all this money. Well we are collecting it. Americans are paying it. And we see it in changes in prices. A washing machine costs 10 or 12 percent more than it did before the tariffs. So this is an unfolding story. I’m not sanguine about it and I believe markets are adjusting to the fact that this is a more permanent space. Which means pricing is different, location of businesses are different.”
Watch David’s full interview online at the Bloomberg website. He starts around the 12:30 minute mark: www.bloomberg.com
Excerpt from The Bond Buyer
By Sarah Wynn
Nov 18, 2019
Some analysts have decided to stick with highly rated bonds in the higher education sector.
“The higher education area, depending on if it’s public or private has seen some declines (in enrollment) over the years, especially in the private colleges,” said Patricia Healy, senior vice president of research and portfolio manager at Cumberland Advisors. Private universities have seen more downgrades than public universities, Healy later added.
Healy said Cumberland looks for double-A and higher single A-rated bonds because high-quality bonds tend to be more liquid and the firm tends to take a more active strategy.
Healy said her firm stopped investing in many private colleges years ago due to the continuing decline in enrollment. Healy said a decline in enrollment can be a reflection of a good economy because people are going directly into the workforce.
Continued: https://www.cumber.com/bondbuyer-lower-tuition-rates-may-mean-more-downgrades-in-fy-2020/
Watch the video at this link: https://www.cumber.com/yahoo-finance-highlight-david-kotok-discusses-macys-target-earnings-retail-divide/
John R. Mousseau, CFA, will be joining a large gathering of members of Wall Street’s financial community in Orlando this winter season for The MoneyShow Orlando 2020. The three days of the conference will focus on new investment ideas that address the current economic and geopolitical environment and will feature tools, strategies, and advice which may help you better position your portfolio.
John will be a featured speaker, giving a review of the bond market in the past year (2019) and what we should expect from the bond market in a presidential election year.
To join John in February 2020 or learn more, please visit: https://conferences.moneyshow.com/moneyshow-orlando/
Continued: https://www.cumber.com/cumberland-advisors-market-commentary-overshadowed/
In the past few weeks Senator Elizabeth Warren has risen to be neck and neck with Joe Biden in most of the national polls for the Democratic nomination. In some of the electronic betting polls, though, Warren is ahead of Biden by 5–6 points, depending on the day. Warren has promised higher taxes, which would […]
Continued: https://www.cumber.com/cumberland-advisors-market-commentary-the-warren-hedge/
The United States has gotten itself into a trade war negotiations mess. (See “How Trump’s Trade War Went From Method to Madness,” https://www.bloomberg.com/news/features/2019-11-14/how-trump-s-trade-war-went-from-method-to-madness.) There is an old adage: “When you’re in a hole and it’s getting deeper, stop digging!” Trump and Co. know they’re in a mess but don’t know how to stop digging, so they have […]
Continued: https://www.cumber.com/cumberland-advisors-market-commentary-trade-war-and-no-recession/
Links to other websites or electronic media controlled or offered by Third-Parties (non-affiliates of Cumberland Advisors) are provided only as a reference and courtesy to our users. Cumberland Advisors has no control over such websites, does not recommend or endorse any opinions, ideas, products, information, or content of such sites, and makes no warranties as to the accuracy, completeness, reliability or suitability of their content. Cumberland Advisors hereby disclaims liability for any information, materials, products or services posted or offered at any of the Third-Party websites. The Third-Party may have a privacy and/or security policy different from that of Cumberland Advisors. Therefore, please refer to the specific privacy and security policies of the Third-Party when accessing their websites.
Sign up for our FREE Cumberland Market Commentaries
Cumberland Advisors Market Commentaries offer insights and analysis on upcoming, important economic issues that potentially impact global financial markets. Our team shares their thinking on global economic developments, market news and other factors that often influence investment opportunities and strategies.
Watch Video
Nov 20, 2019
David Kotok joins Bloomberg Daybreak: Australia to discuss the US-China trade relationship.
“Our view is, a full trade arrangement with China has eluded us; it’s gone. Businesses are now making decisions about location around the world. They’re changing what they’re doing. The United States is now collecting a sales tax on Americans, masquerading as a tariff. And the amount in the tariff is now paying approximately 1/4 of the interest bill on American borrowings and we have a rising deficit. And you hear the president say we’re collecting all this money. Well we are collecting it. Americans are paying it. And we see it in changes in prices. A washing machine costs 10 or 12 percent more than it did before the tariffs. So this is an unfolding story. I’m not sanguine about it and I believe markets are adjusting to the fact that this is a more permanent space. Which means pricing is different, location of businesses are different. And as that unfolds we go down first, we see it, and then there is the reallocation elsewhere.”
Watch online at the Bloomberg website. David starts around the 12:30 minute mark: www.bloomberg.com
Links to other websites or electronic media controlled or offered by Third-Parties (non-affiliates of Cumberland Advisors) are provided only as a reference and courtesy to our users. Cumberland Advisors has no control over such websites, does not recommend or endorse any opinions, ideas, products, information, or content of such sites, and makes no warranties as to the accuracy, completeness, reliability or suitability of their content. Cumberland Advisors hereby disclaims liability for any information, materials, products or services posted or offered at any of the Third-Party websites. The Third-Party may have a privacy and/or security policy different from that of Cumberland Advisors. Therefore, please refer to the specific privacy and security policies of the Third-Party when accessing their websites.
Sign up for our FREE Cumberland Market Commentaries
Cumberland Advisors Market Commentaries offer insights and analysis on upcoming, important economic issues that potentially impact global financial markets. Our team shares their thinking on global economic developments, market news and other factors that often influence investment opportunities and strategies.
Posted on: 11/21/2019 Watch Video
Watch the embedded video from Twitter & Yahoo Finance below.
Links to other websites or electronic media controlled or offered by Third-Parties (non-affiliates of Cumberland Advisors) are provided only as a reference and courtesy to our users. Cumberland Advisors has no control over such websites, does not recommend or endorse any opinions, ideas, products, information, or content of such sites, and makes no warranties as to the accuracy, completeness, reliability or suitability of their content. Cumberland Advisors hereby disclaims liability for any information, materials, products or services posted or offered at any of the Third-Party websites. The Third-Party may have a privacy and/or security policy different from that of Cumberland Advisors. Therefore, please refer to the specific privacy and security policies of the Third-Party when accessing their websites.
Sign up for our FREE Cumberland Market Commentaries
Cumberland Advisors Market Commentaries offer insights and analysis on upcoming, important economic issues that potentially impact global financial markets. Our team shares their thinking on global economic developments, market news and other factors that often influence investment opportunities and strategies.
Posted on: 11/21/2019 Watch Video
Collecting toys for girls & boys!