David Kotok, Cumberland Advisors chief investment officer, reacts to the Federal Open Market Committee’s decision to lower the target range for the federal funds rate by a half-percentage point. He speaks with Bloomberg’s Romaine Bostick and Scarlet Fu on “Bloomberg Markets: The Close.”
“What is the Fed seeing that other’s may not be seeing? And what is it so severe as to cause them a reaction function that seems extreme that won’t even wait two weeks for a meeting?”
Links to other websites or electronic media controlled or offered by Third-Parties (non-affiliates of Cumberland Advisors) are provided only as a reference and courtesy to our users. Cumberland Advisors has no control over such websites, does not recommend or endorse any opinions, ideas, products, information, or content of such sites, and makes no warranties as to the accuracy, completeness, reliability or suitability of their content. Cumberland Advisors hereby disclaims liability for any information, materials, products or services posted or offered at any of the Third-Party websites. The Third-Party may have a privacy and/or security policy different from that of Cumberland Advisors. Therefore, please refer to the specific privacy and security policies of the Third-Party when accessing their websites.
Cumberland Advisors Market Commentaries offer insights and analysis on upcoming, important economic issues that potentially impact global financial markets. Our team shares their thinking on global economic developments, market news and other factors that often influence investment opportunities and strategies.
The Cumberland Advisors Week in Review is a recap of news, commentary, and opinion from our team.
These are not revised assessments, and circumstances may have changed in the market from the time of original publication. We also include older commentaries that our editors have determined may be of interest to our audience. Your feedback is always welcome.
As part of Cumberland Advisors’ continuous effort to maintain strong customer relationships, we offer this week’s short video discussing current market conditions and how we are positioning portfolios.
Thank you for joining us for another “Cumberland Advisors Week In Review.” What a week! Matt McAleer talks about his week in trading and he touches on these point and more:
-We have to put our minds around the 30yr Treasury
-Invest in Treasurys or the S&P 500? We talk about it.
-You must be willing to accept risk to make decisions.
-Let’s look at some things we like to go over day-by-day.
-How about Supply and Demand? And looking at things from a technical standpoint?
-We have some charts for you to look at with us.
-I like to look at charts without preconceived notions.
-I recommend you look at charts the same way.
–Dr. Leo Chen, our Quant Analyst and Portfolio Manager, has been taking note of signals – I explain.
-When we look at markets, we look at what is getting bids & what is rallying.
-I share what I didn’t expect this week.
-I share some historical information with you.
-This week has been a rare event.
-To conclude: fascinating movement in the fixed income market. The 30 year Treasury down through the S&P 500 is something I haven’t seen before. It has happened briefly a couple of times over the last 50-75 years. When it has happened, it was for a very brief period before rates rose again or the market rallied enough to drop that dividend yield.
-We don’t try to predict. We work with data.
Have you seen the agenda for our upcoming energy conference, called “An Outlook on Energy Policy“? It’s in partnership with the University of South Florida, Sarasota-Manatee (USFSM) and the Global Interdependence Center (GIC). I’ll be speaking at it along with many others including Patty Healy CFA, Cumberland’s Senior Vice President of Research and Portfolio Manager. She’ll be exploring, among many issues, water quality and projects, ESG, and municipalities, municipal bonds and municipal credit. Many of these things are tied together with energy investing that the layman may not be aware of. More information is available at this link and in the description at the end of this brief: https://www.interdependence.org/events/an-outlook-on-energy-policy/
Please reach out to me with any questions/comments you may have about this week’s video, I always appreciate your calls, comments, and emails.
Author: Jay Simkin & David R. Kotok, Post Date: February 28, 2020
Jay Simkin is a skilled global observer who consults privately on global risks. We have exchanged information for many years. Sometimes we don’t agree, but we always maintain a candid exchange and respect for each other’s work. Jay emailed me his own view on the coronavirus and China, and I asked permission to share his [Continued…]
Author: David R. Kotok, Post Date: February 26, 2020
Without a vaccine, the best medicine for an epidemic is the truth. Lies and cover-ups make matters worse; we all know it. We recently saw it in Wilmington, North Carolina, where a fake news report of coronavirus cases triggered disruption in the regional medical system. It is hard to catch a perpetrator of an internet [Continued…]
Author: Nick Colas and Jessica Rabe, Post Date: February 24, 2020
Nick Colas and Jessica Rabe of DataTrek Research publish a terrific daily market analysis. They have kindly agreed to let us send their full Coronavirus survey note to our list. We thank them. The full February 23rd letter follows. David R. Kotok Chairman and Chief Investment Officer Email | Bio DATATREK MORNING BRIEFING February 23, [Continued…]
Author: David R. Kotok, Post Date: February 6, 2020
What did Beijing know, and when did they know it? Did the Chinese negotiators ask for and obtain Article 7.6 (2) when they already knew they might have to invoke it? Did the US agree with the language in the dispute-resolution section without knowing about the degree of coronavirus spread and risk? Was the US a victim of Chinese deception? [Continued…]
Author: William Witherell, Ph.D., Post Date: February 5, 2020
Beginning in late 2019 through the first half of January, stocks in Asia (excluding Japan), led by the Chinese market, rallied, outperforming most other equity markets. However, the region is now challenged by the spread of a new coronavirus originating in China. With an exponential increase in the number of infected cases in China and [Continued…]
Author: David R. Kotok, Post Date: February 3, 2020
We now know that the first person who contracted a mysterious pneumonia in Wuhan actually fell ill on December 1, almost two weeks earlier than Chinese authorities initially claimed. (See “Did China downplay the coronavirus outbreak early on?” https://www.vox.com/2020/1/27/21082354/coronavirus-outbreak-wuhan-china-early-on-lancet, and “Wuhan seafood market may not be source of novel virus spreading globally,” https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2020/01/wuhan-seafood-market-may-not-be-source-novel-virus-spreading-globally). That information [Continued…]
Quoted: David R. Kotok | Posted on: 02/25/2020 read more
Upcoming event with Cumberland Advisors…
Join Cumberland Advisors on Friday, March 20, 2020 for a program called “An Outlook on Energy Policy“. The event is held in partnership with the Global Interdependence Center, the University of South Florida Sarasota-Manatee, and with support from the Alliance for Market Solutions and First Trust. This half-day conference will explore investing in energy, policy approaches to climate change, and energy’s effect on Fed policy. “An Outlook on Energy Policy” will feature Danielle DiMartino Booth, CEO & Chief Strategist for Quill Intelligence LLC, Samuel Rines, Chief Economist, Avalon Advisors, Jim Lucier, Capital Alpha Partners, Former Congresswoman Gwen Graham, Former Congressman Carlos Curbelo, Jim Slutz, Director of Study Operations at the National Petroleum Council, along with other speakers and moderators.
We look forward to sharing with you an event filled with conversation, thought leadership, and valuable information.
Links to other websites or electronic media controlled or offered by Third-Parties (non-affiliates of Cumberland Advisors) are provided only as a reference and courtesy to our users. Cumberland Advisors has no control over such websites, does not recommend or endorse any opinions, ideas, products, information, or content of such sites, and makes no warranties as to the accuracy, completeness, reliability or suitability of their content. Cumberland Advisors hereby disclaims liability for any information, materials, products or services posted or offered at any of the Third-Party websites. The Third-Party may have a privacy and/or security policy different from that of Cumberland Advisors. Therefore, please refer to the specific privacy and security policies of the Third-Party when accessing their websites.
Cumberland Advisors Market Commentaries offer insights and analysis on upcoming, important economic issues that potentially impact global financial markets. Our team shares their thinking on global economic developments, market news and other factors that often influence investment opportunities and strategies.
Cumberland Advisors President & CEO discusses worst week on Wall Street since 2008 financial crisis with Grant Boxleitner.
SARASOTA – After stocks wrapped up the biggest weekly losses since the 2008 financial crisis, Cumberland Advisors President, CEO & Director Of Fixed Income John Mousseau talked about the volatility with SNN’s Grant Boxleitner.
Mousseau talked about how coronavirus is playing into the brisk selloff, possible areas of the market nervous investors could consider and more.
The major U.S. indices plunged into correction territory this week, meaning they’ve all lost at least 10 percent of their value from their highs.
Links to other websites or electronic media controlled or offered by Third-Parties (non-affiliates of Cumberland Advisors) are provided only as a reference and courtesy to our users. Cumberland Advisors has no control over such websites, does not recommend or endorse any opinions, ideas, products, information, or content of such sites, and makes no warranties as to the accuracy, completeness, reliability or suitability of their content. Cumberland Advisors hereby disclaims liability for any information, materials, products or services posted or offered at any of the Third-Party websites. The Third-Party may have a privacy and/or security policy different from that of Cumberland Advisors. Therefore, please refer to the specific privacy and security policies of the Third-Party when accessing their websites.
Cumberland Advisors Market Commentaries offer insights and analysis on upcoming, important economic issues that potentially impact global financial markets. Our team shares their thinking on global economic developments, market news and other factors that often influence investment opportunities and strategies.
Inside ETFs – A breakdown of zero interest-rate policy (ZIRP)
David Kotok, co-founder of Cumberland Advisors explains what ZIRP means for your clients and why you should pay attention to being at zero.
Feb 25, 2020
Links to other websites or electronic media controlled or offered by Third-Parties (non-affiliates of Cumberland Advisors) are provided only as a reference and courtesy to our users. Cumberland Advisors has no control over such websites, does not recommend or endorse any opinions, ideas, products, information, or content of such sites, and makes no warranties as to the accuracy, completeness, reliability or suitability of their content. Cumberland Advisors hereby disclaims liability for any information, materials, products or services posted or offered at any of the Third-Party websites. The Third-Party may have a privacy and/or security policy different from that of Cumberland Advisors. Therefore, please refer to the specific privacy and security policies of the Third-Party when accessing their websites.
Cumberland Advisors Market Commentaries offer insights and analysis on upcoming, important economic issues that potentially impact global financial markets. Our team shares their thinking on global economic developments, market news and other factors that often influence investment opportunities and strategies.
The Cumberland Advisors Week in Review is a recap of news, commentary, and opinion from our team.
These are not revised assessments, and circumstances may have changed in the market from the time of original publication. We also include older commentaries that our editors have determined may be of interest to our audience. Your feedback is always welcome.
As part of Cumberland Advisors’ continuous effort to maintain strong customer relationships, we offer this week’s short video discussing current market conditions and how we are positioning portfolios.
Thank you for joining us for another “Cumberland Advisors Week In Review.” We talk about…
-Softness this week in equities.
-Where are we in cash?
-We hit very strong overbought numbers; Matt explains.
-A market can correct through price or time. Or a combination of both.
-How about Fixed Income? We have charts to share.
-The gravity of foreign yields is a force that we, the US interest rate market, battle with on a daily basis.
-There’s a lot of foreign money seeking investment grade paper. We may lock in some profit under these circumstances.
-We don’t trade in a vacuum. We always take a look at interest rates.
-Do we make make decisions based upon what gold is doing? Absolutely not!
-Do we respect that capital is currently flowing into defensive areas? Absolutely.
-If we’re not paying attention to those things, we’re not doing a proper job.
If you’re interested in energy, green-tech, electric cars, ESG, fusion power, oil & gas, wind & solar, pollution, and/or peripheral issues surrounding the energy industry, take a look at the agenda for our upcoming Energy Conference in partnership with the University of South Florida, Sarasota-Manatee (USFSM) and the Global Interdependence Center (GIC) at this link: https://www.interdependence.org/events/an-outlook-on-energy-policy/
Feel free to reach out to me with any questions/comments you may have about this week’s video, I always appreciate your calls, comments, and emails. Your feedback may become a topic.
For our readers’ reference we want to start this discussion by recalling that it has been one century since a virus mutated and became a mass killer. That was a strain of H1N1 influenza A, nicknamed the Spanish flu. An estimated 50 million died worldwide as that pandemic swept around the world, and many more millions were sickened by this virus. Here is a reference from the Centers for Disease Control (CDC) that tells the story of this influenza pandemic: https://www.cdc.gov/features/1918-flu-pandemic/index.html.
The Wuhan coronavirus outbreak is still unfolding. Research and opinion we accumulate will be assembled here for your reference. On February 11, 2020 the World Health Organization announced an official name for the disease that is causing the current outbreak of coronavirus disease, COVID-19.
If you’ve not had an opportunity to see our interview with Dr. Judy Monroe, the link is just below. Also linked is the freely available pamphlet on the Zika virus. We catalogue successes, failures, and the ground in-between whether it be public, private, or NGO.
Dr. Judy Monroe from the CDC Foundation discusses Zika and the foundation’s mission with David R. Kotok. Watch in the player or at this link: https://youtu.be/rge2tC74kSc
You, the ordinary citizen, may need to inculcate the habits of self-reliance and less dependence on help from governments that often fall short. Be vigilant while also respecting the history lesson of the Spanish flu a hundred years after it arrived with a vengeance.
At Cumberland, as we watch the global battle against COVID-19 unfold, we offer a tribute to a young doctor in Wuhan, to other early whistleblowers, to those who dare to exercise and to advocate for free speech and to those who try to hold their governments accountable, and, especially, to the thousands of nurses and doctors who continue to risk – and sometimes lose – their lives to care for the ill. They and others like them are the heroes upon whom the world now depends.
Links to other websites or electronic media controlled or offered by Third-Parties (non-affiliates of Cumberland Advisors) are provided only as a reference and courtesy to our users. Cumberland Advisors has no control over such websites, does not recommend or endorse any opinions, ideas, products, information, or content of such sites, and makes no warranties as to the accuracy, completeness, reliability or suitability of their content. Cumberland Advisors hereby disclaims liability for any information, materials, products or services posted or offered at any of the Third-Party websites. The Third-Party may have a privacy and/or security policy different from that of Cumberland Advisors. Therefore, please refer to the specific privacy and security policies of the Third-Party when accessing their websites.
Cumberland Advisors Market Commentaries offer insights and analysis on upcoming, important economic issues that potentially impact global financial markets. Our team shares their thinking on global economic developments, market news and other factors that often influence investment opportunities and strategies.
The Cumberland Advisors Week in Review is a recap of news, commentary, and opinion from our team.
These are not revised assessments, and circumstances may have changed in the market from the time of original publication. We also include older commentaries that our editors have determined may be of interest to our audience. Your feedback is always welcome.
As part of Cumberland Advisors’ continuous effort to maintain strong customer relationships, we offer this week’s short video discussing current market conditions and how we are positioning portfolios.
This week we feature a quick recap on equities and John Mousseau gives us an analysis on bonds:
-Busy Day!
– Bloomberg’s Mike McKee joined us at our annual event, Understanding Global Markets and Finance – Fourth Annual Financial Literacy Day, and we’re sharing his interview with Loretta Mester, President and CEO, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland (see below)
-Matt says equities had a little softness. We had 1-2% range in equity markets this week.
-With new accounts, we’re only putting a portion of money to work, we’re looking for better risk-reward conditions
-John was on a bond panel today with Jay Bryson of Wells Fargo, look for that panel video next week
-John thinks we’re seeing money park in the safety of treasuries over coronavirus worries – he explains
-Happy Valentines Day!
Watch this week’s update in the player above or at this link: https://youtu.be/lMu_-buZNlQ
Have a great weekend and thank you for joining us at Cumberland Advisors.
Author: David R. Kotok, Post Date: February 14, 2020
Markets were dealt a surprise on February 12, when changes to the way coronavirus cases in Hubei Province are counted resulted in a dramatic surge in the number of new cases reported in China (“Coronavirus: Hubei Province reports spike in new confirmed cases and deaths after change in diagnostic criteria,” https://www.scmp.com/news/china/society/article/3050354/coronavirus-hubei-province-reports-sharp-spike-new-confirmed). For epidemiologists and for [Continued…]
Author: David R. Kotok, Post Date: February 12, 2020
Virus news continues to erupt worldwide and financial markets seem divided, with bonds saying lower interest rates for longer, slower global growth, and a downward inflation outlook. Stock markets, on the other hand, like the low interest rates more than they fear the virus. The headline stock index changes masks the industry-specific impacts. The stock [Continued…]
Author: David R. Kotok, Post Date: February 11, 2020
Let’s summarize the Wuhan, Hubei, Beijing cover-up and aftermath: October and November – flu-like symptoms, sickness and deaths attributed to flu. December – whistleblower doctor joins other doctors in alerting colleagues of novel coronavirus. Whistle-blower and other doctors punished by China government and silenced. China later attributes source of virus to seafood market (this is now believed to [Continued…]
Author: Robert Eisenbeis, Ph.D., Post Date: February 10, 2020
With the no-change decision by the FOMC, rendered as the impeachment finale was playing out, and with the next FOMC meeting about a month away, the most important upcoming event for the Fed is Chairman Powell’s semiannual testimony before Congress this week. The Board’s report is already out, and it provides a fairly clear indication [Continued…]
Quoted: David R. Kotok | Posted on: 02/03/2020 read more
See Mike McKee’s interview with Loretta Mester, President and CEO, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland. Loretta was our keynote speaker for our annual conference, “Understanding Global Markets & Finance”. Mike joined us for the day at the University of South Florida Sarasota-Manatee and conducted the interview on site.
Links to other websites or electronic media controlled or offered by Third-Parties (non-affiliates of Cumberland Advisors) are provided only as a reference and courtesy to our users. Cumberland Advisors has no control over such websites, does not recommend or endorse any opinions, ideas, products, information, or content of such sites, and makes no warranties as to the accuracy, completeness, reliability or suitability of their content. Cumberland Advisors hereby disclaims liability for any information, materials, products or services posted or offered at any of the Third-Party websites. The Third-Party may have a privacy and/or security policy different from that of Cumberland Advisors. Therefore, please refer to the specific privacy and security policies of the Third-Party when accessing their websites.
Cumberland Advisors Market Commentaries offer insights and analysis on upcoming, important economic issues that potentially impact global financial markets. Our team shares their thinking on global economic developments, market news and other factors that often influence investment opportunities and strategies.
The Cumberland Advisors Week in Review is a recap of news, commentary, and opinion from our team.
These are not revised assessments, and circumstances may have changed in the market from the time of original publication. We also include older commentaries that our editors have determined may be of interest to our audience. Your feedback is always welcome.
As part of Cumberland Advisors’ continuous effort to maintain strong customer relationships, we offer this week’s short video discussing current market conditions and how we are positioning portfolios.
Matt McAleer talks about his week in trading and he touches on these point and more:
-Headline News! What do we do to make sense of it or ignore it?
-Relative Strength is something we pay an awful lot of attention to on a weekly, monthly, and quarterly basis
-We examine the Asset Matrix Class for 2008 and where we are currently
-We include charts in the video for you to look at with us
Author: David R. Kotok, Post Date: February 6, 2020
What did Beijing know, and when did they know it? Did the Chinese negotiators ask for and obtain Article 7.6 (2) when they already knew they might have to invoke it? Did the US agree with the language in the dispute-resolution section without knowing about the degree of coronavirus spread and risk? Was the US a victim of Chinese deception? [Continued…]
Author: William Witherell, Ph.D., Post Date: February 5, 2020
Beginning in late 2019 through the first half of January, stocks in Asia (excluding Japan), led by the Chinese market, rallied, outperforming most other equity markets. However, the region is now challenged by the spread of a new coronavirus originating in China. With an exponential increase in the number of infected cases in China and [Continued…]
Author: David R. Kotok, Post Date: February 3, 2020
We now know that the first person who contracted a mysterious pneumonia in Wuhan actually fell ill on December 1, almost two weeks earlier than Chinese authorities initially claimed. (See “Did China downplay the coronavirus outbreak early on?” https://www.vox.com/2020/1/27/21082354/coronavirus-outbreak-wuhan-china-early-on-lancet, and “Wuhan seafood market may not be source of novel virus spreading globally,” https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2020/01/wuhan-seafood-market-may-not-be-source-novel-virus-spreading-globally). That information [Continued…]
Our strategic, market-oriented view of the impeachment proceedings sets aside the personal views of those in our company. Among our 45 people we are as diverse in our opinions as you would expect. We have Democrats and Republicans, conservatives and liberals, and we have civil discussions among us, which go on constantly. Personal views are [Continued…]
Author: Robert Eisenbeis, Ph.D., Post Date: January 28, 2020
Because of the impeachment hearings, little if any attention has been or is likely to be paid this week to the first FOMC meeting of 2020, on Tuesday and Wednesday. Chair Powell will give his customary press conference, but attention will likely be focused elsewhere, and for good reason. In our view, the FOMC will [Continued…]
In the Community…
Friday, January 31, 2020 – Cumberland Advisors sponsored the Sarasota Ballet‘s after party. Pictured here are Barbara McAleer (Matt McAleer’s wife), the principal dancer from the night’s performance, and Patty Healy, Cumberland’s Senior Vice President of Research.
Quoted: David R. Kotok | Posted on: 02/03/2020 read more
Upcoming event with Cumberland Advisors…
Cumberland Advisors is pleased to announce that registration is now open for our annual conference, “Understanding Global Markets & Finance”. This is our Fourth Annual Financial Literacy Day of advanced concepts and discussions held at the University of South Florida Sarasota-Manatee (USFSM). We plan a deep dive into the Bond Market where we’ll examine the categories of debt and the influences on those categories including budget deficits plus larger issues like central bank QE and its impacts on interest rates for this debt. We’re also featuring a discussion about Real Time Payments (RTP) to include Bitcoin, Libra, Venmo and other versions of electronic money. Do you trust Big Tech with your wallet?
There will be a special presentation on “The Danger of Deficits and Debt and What Can be Done About It” introduced by Kathleen Stephansen, Senior Economist, Haver Analytics and GIC Chair and conducted by Senator Kent Conrad, Former Chairman of the Senate Budget Committee.
Our conference wraps with a Keynote Speech from Loretta Mester, President of the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland. Her areas of research expertise and interest include the organizational structure and productive efficiency of financial institutions, financial intermediation and regulation, agency problems in credit markets, credit card pricing, central bank governance, and inflation. See her bio & cv here.
Links to other websites or electronic media controlled or offered by Third-Parties (non-affiliates of Cumberland Advisors) are provided only as a reference and courtesy to our users. Cumberland Advisors has no control over such websites, does not recommend or endorse any opinions, ideas, products, information, or content of such sites, and makes no warranties as to the accuracy, completeness, reliability or suitability of their content. Cumberland Advisors hereby disclaims liability for any information, materials, products or services posted or offered at any of the Third-Party websites. The Third-Party may have a privacy and/or security policy different from that of Cumberland Advisors. Therefore, please refer to the specific privacy and security policies of the Third-Party when accessing their websites.
Cumberland Advisors Market Commentaries offer insights and analysis on upcoming, important economic issues that potentially impact global financial markets. Our team shares their thinking on global economic developments, market news and other factors that often influence investment opportunities and strategies.
Feb.06 — David Kotok, Cumberland Advisors chairman and chief investment officer, discusses his outlook for U.S. stocks with Bloomberg’s Vonnie Quinn and Guy Johnson on “Bloomberg Markets.”
Links to other websites or electronic media controlled or offered by Third-Parties (non-affiliates of Cumberland Advisors) are provided only as a reference and courtesy to our users. Cumberland Advisors has no control over such websites, does not recommend or endorse any opinions, ideas, products, information, or content of such sites, and makes no warranties as to the accuracy, completeness, reliability or suitability of their content. Cumberland Advisors hereby disclaims liability for any information, materials, products or services posted or offered at any of the Third-Party websites. The Third-Party may have a privacy and/or security policy different from that of Cumberland Advisors. Therefore, please refer to the specific privacy and security policies of the Third-Party when accessing their websites.
Cumberland Advisors Market Commentaries offer insights and analysis on upcoming, important economic issues that potentially impact global financial markets. Our team shares their thinking on global economic developments, market news and other factors that often influence investment opportunities and strategies.
The Cumberland Advisors Week in Review is a recap of news, commentary, and opinion from our team.
These are not revised assessments, and circumstances may have changed in the market from the time of original publication. We also include older commentaries that our editors have determined may be of interest to our audience. Your feedback is always welcome.
As part of Cumberland Advisors’ continuous effort to maintain strong customer relationships, we offer this week’s short video discussing current market conditions and how we are positioning portfolios.
Matt McAleer talks about his week in trading and he touches on these point and more:
-Fixed Income on fire!
-How does a market rest?
-Excuses for change in momentum
-What will let us know how strong demand is?
-We put some cash to work.
-We talk about our “buy” signals
-Where do we see panic?
-What about coronavirus?
Our strategic, market-oriented view of the impeachment proceedings sets aside the personal views of those in our company. Among our 45 people we are as diverse in our opinions as you would expect. We have Democrats and Republicans, conservatives and liberals, and we have civil discussions among us, which go on constantly. Personal views are [Continued…]
Author: Robert Eisenbeis, Ph.D., Post Date: January 28, 2020
Because of the impeachment hearings, little if any attention has been or is likely to be paid this week to the first FOMC meeting of 2020, on Tuesday and Wednesday. Chair Powell will give his customary press conference, but attention will likely be focused elsewhere, and for good reason. In our view, the FOMC will [Continued…]
At any given time, there are at least four or five people (and often up to six or seven) working on our ETF trading accounts and strategies. We continually challenge each other as part of our investment process. We debate all points of view, and we freely express differences of opinion. We try to read [Continued…]
Author: David R. Kotok, Post Date: January 22, 2020
At Cumberland, we take time to track viral outbreaks for two reasons: (1) Epidemics and pandemics do have market consequences and raise risk, and (2) they can be deadly. SARS, bird flu, Zika, Ebola, and more make the list of outbreaks we have followed closely. In the case of Zika, we wrote a detailed pamphlet [Continued…]
Author: David R. Kotok, Post Date: January 21, 2020
In my opinion the speculation about a conspiracy at the St. Louis Fed may be fodder for internet speculation, but it is simply not true. There is coincidence in timing of unrelated announcements. We believe it is pure coincidence. Here’s the fact set. 1. On January 16, 2020, the St. Louis Fed discontinued the series [Continued…]
During this three-day educational conference for self-directed investors and traders, attendees will receive real-time market and economic analysis, hear hundreds of specific buy/sell recommendations, listen how 150+ experts are adapting their strategies, have an opportunity to test-drive new tools, with a lot more planned by the organizers.
f you’d like to join me, register here to secure your spot. We convene at the Omni Orlando Resort at ChampionsGate in sunny Florida.
Quoted: John R. Mousseau, CFA | Posted on: 01/20/2020 read more
Upcoming event with Cumberland Advisors…
Cumberland Advisors is pleased to announce that registration is now open for our annual conference, “Understanding Global Markets & Finance”. This is our Fourth Annual Financial Literacy Day of advanced concepts and discussions held at the University of South Florida Sarasota-Manatee (USFSM). We plan a deep dive into the Bond Market where we’ll examine the categories of debt and the influences on those categories including budget deficits plus larger issues like central bank QE and its impacts on interest rates for this debt. We’re also featuring a discussion about Real Time Payments (RTP) to include Bitcoin, Libra, Venmo and other versions of electronic money. Do you trust Big Tech with your wallet?
There will be a special presentation on “The Danger of Deficits and Debt and What Can be Done About It” introduced by Kathleen Stephansen, Senior Economist, Haver Analytics and GIC Chair and conducted by Senator Kent Conrad, Former Chairman of the Senate Budget Committee.
Our conference wraps with a Keynote Speech from Loretta Mester, President of the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland. Her areas of research expertise and interest include the organizational structure and productive efficiency of financial institutions, financial intermediation and regulation, agency problems in credit markets, credit card pricing, central bank governance, and inflation. See her bio & cv here.
Links to other websites or electronic media controlled or offered by Third-Parties (non-affiliates of Cumberland Advisors) are provided only as a reference and courtesy to our users. Cumberland Advisors has no control over such websites, does not recommend or endorse any opinions, ideas, products, information, or content of such sites, and makes no warranties as to the accuracy, completeness, reliability or suitability of their content. Cumberland Advisors hereby disclaims liability for any information, materials, products or services posted or offered at any of the Third-Party websites. The Third-Party may have a privacy and/or security policy different from that of Cumberland Advisors. Therefore, please refer to the specific privacy and security policies of the Third-Party when accessing their websites.
Cumberland Advisors Market Commentaries offer insights and analysis on upcoming, important economic issues that potentially impact global financial markets. Our team shares their thinking on global economic developments, market news and other factors that often influence investment opportunities and strategies.
The Cumberland Advisors Week in Review is a recap of news, commentary, and opinion from our team.
These are not revised assessments, and circumstances may have changed in the market from the time of original publication. We also include older commentaries that our editors have determined may be of interest to our audience. Your feedback is always welcome.
As part of Cumberland Advisors’ continuous effort to maintain strong customer relationships, we offer this week’s short video discussing current market conditions and how we are positioning portfolios.
Matt McAleer talks about his week in trading and John Mousseau joins us for his view on bonds and employment.
* Headline Risk – This week was fraught with it.
* What do we like? Large Cap Growth.
* What concerns us? How quickly Small Caps and Mid Caps fade.
* How/When we look at break out summaries. What tips us off?
* If there’s something that’s bothering us in an otherwise very solid market, it’s that weakness in Small Caps and semi-weakness in Mid Caps.
* John Mousseau talks about Cumberland’s defensive strategy on bonds.
* John also discusses the employment numbers.
Would you like to leave a comment for John? Contact him or any one of our advisors by following this link: https://www.cumber.com/our-people/ Or email us at info@cumber.com or give us a call at (800) 257-7013
Have a great weekend and thank you for joining us at Cumberland Advisors.
Author: David R. Kotok, Post Date: January 16, 2020
My friend and fishing buddy David “Rosie” Rosenberg has launched his own eponymous economic consultancy. Here’s his website link: https://www.rosenbergresearch.com. Rosie has given us permission to share his year-end review with our readers. Here’s a thought-provoking trove of information and we provide a small excerpt below (full review including charts is in linked PDF). If […]
For the people of Puerto Rico, natural disasters have become all too commonplace. Two years ago there was Hurricane Maria, which claimed thousands of lives and caused billions in damages. Now the island has experienced a series of earthquakes (the largest being a magnitude 6.4), which have again caused destruction and again brought fear and […]
Author: Robert Eisenbeis, Ph.D., Post Date: January 14, 2020
Beginning in 2018, in a long sequence of actions, the US enacted tariffs on goods from a number of countries besides just China. In some cases the affected countries responded with their own retaliatory tariffs on US products. As a consequence of the timing and the short periods that many of the tariffs have been […]
Author: John R. Mousseau, CFA, Post Date: January 13, 2020
2019 saw bond yields turn around from their climb in 2018 and move lower. Since the Federal Reserve changed their language last December to being accommodative and data-driven, we have seen yields across the board come down a lot. There is no question that this drop in yields was driven, in large part, by what […]
Author: Cumberland Advisors, Post Date: January 1, 2020
Read to learn more about the thinking behind Cumberland Advisors’ positioning of portfolios and how we execute strategies in our Q3 Reviews. [Continued…]
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Author: Robert Eisenbeis, Ph.D., Post Date: July 12, 2019
Johnny Hart, the creator of the comic strip BC, created an economy in which clams served as currency. Clams were plentiful, so no one ran out of currency, except that an occasional clam had cartoon legs and opted for a different career. A currency in the form of a good is of course nothing new [Continued…]
Author: Robert Eisenbeis, Ph.D., Post Date: July 23, 2019
We received several comments from readers concerning some of the key points in our recent commentary “Clams or Gold.” Below is an abbreviated version of the questions, to which responses are then supplied. Comment: You may have seriously misled readers because both the purity of the official gold bullion and measurement of ounces have remained [Continued…]
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Cumberland Advisors Market Commentaries offer insights and analysis on upcoming, important economic issues that potentially impact global financial markets. Our team shares their thinking on global economic developments, market news and other factors that often influence investment opportunities and strategies.
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Jay Simkin is a skilled global observer who consults privately on global risks. We have exchanged information for many years. Sometimes we don’t agree, but we always maintain a candid exchange and respect for each other’s work. Jay emailed me his own view on the coronavirus and China, and I asked permission to share his [Continued…]
Without a vaccine, the best medicine for an epidemic is the truth. Lies and cover-ups make matters worse; we all know it. We recently saw it in Wilmington, North Carolina, where a fake news report of coronavirus cases triggered disruption in the regional medical system. It is hard to catch a perpetrator of an internet [Continued…]
Nick Colas and Jessica Rabe of DataTrek Research publish a terrific daily market analysis. They have kindly agreed to let us send their full Coronavirus survey note to our list. We thank them. The full February 23rd letter follows. David R. Kotok Chairman and Chief Investment Officer Email | Bio DATATREK MORNING BRIEFING February 23, [Continued…]
