Tag Archives: COVID-19

image_pdfimage_print

Cumberland Advisors Market Commentary – Virus Death Count

Author: David R. Kotok, Post Date: February 14, 2020
Market Commentary - Cumberland Advisors - Corona Virus Series Title Page

Markets were dealt a surprise on February 12, when changes to the way coronavirus cases in Hubei Province are counted resulted in a dramatic surge in the number of new cases reported in China (“Coronavirus: Hubei Province reports spike in new confirmed cases and deaths after change in diagnostic criteria,” https://www.scmp.com/news/china/society/article/3050354/coronavirus-hubei-province-reports-sharp-spike-new-confirmed). For epidemiologists and for […]

Cumberland Advisors Market Commentary – The Virus and Cruise Ships

Author: David R. Kotok, Post Date: February 12, 2020
Market Commentary - Cumberland Advisors - The Virus and Cruise Ships

Virus news continues to erupt worldwide and financial markets seem divided, with bonds saying lower interest rates for longer, slower global growth, and a downward inflation outlook. Stock markets, on the other hand, like the low interest rates more than they fear the virus. The headline stock index changes masks the industry-specific impacts. The stock […]

Cumberland Advisors Market Commentary – Wuhan, Hubei, Beijing, Washington: Case Studies in Gov’t Failure under Viral Conditions

Author: , Post Date: February 11, 2020
Market Commentary - Cumberland Advisors - Wuhan, Hubei, Beijing, Washington Case Studies in Government Failure under Viral Conditions

Let’s summarize the Wuhan, Hubei, Beijing cover-up and aftermath: October and November – flu-like symptoms, sickness and deaths attributed to flu. December – whistleblower doctor joins other doctors in alerting colleagues of novel coronavirus. Whistle-blower and other doctors punished by China government and silenced. China later attributes source of virus to seafood market (this is now believed to […]

Cumberland Advisors Market Commentary – Wuhan Coverup and Trade. An Update.

Author: David R. Kotok, Post Date: February 6, 2020
Market Commentary - Cumberland Advisors - Corona Virus & Markets

What did Beijing know, and when did they know it? Did the Chinese negotiators ask for and obtain Article 7.6 (2) when they already knew they might have to invoke it? Did the US agree with the language in the dispute-resolution section without knowing about the degree of coronavirus spread and risk? Was the US a victim of Chinese deception?

Cumberland Advisors Market Commentary – A Wuhan Coverup and the Trade Deal?

Author: David R. Kotok, Post Date: February 3, 2020
Market Commentary - Cumberland Advisors - A Wuhan Coverup and the Trade Deal

We now know that the first person who contracted a mysterious pneumonia in Wuhan actually fell ill on December 1, almost two weeks earlier than Chinese authorities initially claimed.  (See “Did China downplay the coronavirus outbreak early on?” https://www.vox.com/2020/1/27/21082354/coronavirus-outbreak-wuhan-china-early-on-lancet, and “Wuhan seafood market may not be source of novel virus spreading globally,” https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2020/01/wuhan-seafood-market-may-not-be-source-novel-virus-spreading-globally). That information […]

Stocktake: Will China’s coronavirus infect stocks?

Author: , Post Date: January 29, 2020
Cumberland-Advisors-David-Kotok-In-The-News

Excerpt from… Stocktake: Will China’s coronavirus infect stocks? Much depends on the trajectory of the deadly virus By Proinsias O’Mahony – Tue, Jan 28, 2020 Will China’s coronavirus infect stocks? Maybe. Cumberland Advisors’ David Kotok last week cautioned that epidemics and pandemics “do have market consequences and raise risk”, Goldman Sachs debated the “potential impact” […]

China crisis update

Author: , Post Date: January 25, 2020
David R. Kotok

Excerpt from Politico’s Morning Money China crisis update By BEN WHITE and AUBREE ELIZA WEAVER – 01/24/2020 China crisis update — Via Reuters: “China stepped up measures to contain a virus which has killed 25 people and infected more than 800, with public transport suspensions in 10 cities, temples shutting, and the rapid construction of […]

Cumberland Advisors Market Commentary – Coronavirus #1 with updated death toll

Author: David R. Kotok, Post Date: January 22, 2020
Market Commentary - Cumberland Advisors - Corona Virus & Markets

At Cumberland, we take time to track viral outbreaks for two reasons: (1) Epidemics and pandemics do have market consequences and raise risk, and (2) they can be deadly. SARS, bird flu, Zika, Ebola, and more make the list of outbreaks we have followed closely. In the case of Zika, we wrote a detailed pamphlet […]