Tag Archives: David R. Kotok

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Cumberland Advisors Market Commentary – Year-End & 2020 Forecast Note #4: Inflation

Author: David R. Kotok, Post Date: December 6, 2019
Market Commentary - Cumberland Advisors - Year-End-&-2020-Forecast-Notes 4 - Inflation

The outlook for inflation and for inflation-sensitive financial instruments is still highly uncertain. Note that this prognosis includes TIPS on the bond side and certain inflation-sensitive stock groups on the equity side. The world’s mature economies have been trying to get inflation up to 2% or higher for many years. They’ve had no success. An […]

Are Trump’s New Trade Threats Just the Art of the Deal? Analysts See Reason to Worry

Author: , Post Date: December 5, 2019
Cumberland-Advisors-David-Kotok-In-The-News

Excerpt from… Barron’s Are Trump’s New Trade Threats Just the Art of the Deal? Analysts See Reason to Worry https://www.barrons.com/articles/trump-threats-trade-china-tariffs-france-steel-worrying-analysts-51575396098 By Reshma Kapadia – Dec 23, 2019 Talk about being whipsawed. The market has gone from cheering word from President Donald Trump that negotiators were in the “final throes” of an initial trade deal to […]

Cumberland Advisors Market Commentary – Year-End & 2020 Forecast Note #3: Potential Volatility Driven by US Politics

Author: David R. Kotok, Post Date:
Market Commentary - Cumberland Advisors - Year-End-&-2020-Forecast-Notes 3 - Potential Volatility Driven by US Politics

US politics will be a closely watched, bubbling pot in 2020, and the media will boil over every news item. That said, it is Super Tuesday (March 3) which becomes the key date for Democrats. Republican challengers to Trump seem to be non-starters as best as we can determine. Perhaps the New Hampshire or Massachusetts […]

Cumberland Advisors Market Commentary – Year-End & 2020 Forecast Note #2: A Vulnerable Trajectory for Stock Prices

Author: David R. Kotok, Post Date: December 4, 2019
Market Commentary - Cumberland Advisors - A Vulnerable Trajectory for Stock Prices

In addition to Trade War uncertainty, US stock markets must grapple with problematic earnings estimates for 2020. Typical year-start estimates are higher than actual outcomes, as a bias toward optimism appears around the year-end holiday time. A good example is 2019, when year-start estimates for the S&P 500 were in the $174–178 range. The actual […]

Cumberland Advisors Market Commentary – Year-End & 2020 Forecast Note #1: US–China Trade War

Author: David R. Kotok, Post Date: December 3, 2019
Market Commentary - Cumberland Advisors - Year-End-&-2020-Forecast-Notes 1 - US–China Trade War

In our opinion, investors should not be deceived by any promise of a definitive Trump Trade War settlement. It isn’t in the cards. The best outcome is a truce, and even that will be more like a ceasefire. As of this writing, U.S.-China tariff talks continue, and a phase one trade deal is still expected […]

Tariff Man keeps coming back because trade wars aren’t easy to win

Author: , Post Date:
Cumberland-Advisors-David-Kotok-In-The-News

Excerpt from… CNN Business Tariff Man keeps coming back because trade wars aren’t easy to win https://www.cnn.com/2019/12/03/business/trade-war-trump-china-france/index.html by Matt Egan – Dec 23, 2019 New York (CNN Business) President Donald Trump, armed with sweeping tax cuts and a handpicked Federal Reserve chief, confidently told the world in March 2018 that “trade wars are good, and […]

Trade wars and ETFs: let the battle commence

Author: , Post Date: December 2, 2019
Cumberland-Advisors-David-Kotok-In-The-News

Trade wars and ETFs: let the battle commence Excerpt from Informa Connect (KNect365) by David R. Kotok The United States has gotten itself into a trade war negotiations mess. Will it manage to dig its way out of the hole and will ETFs play a role? David Kotok, chairman and CIO, Cumberland Advisors examines. China: […]

Yahoo Finance Highlight: The trade war rages on

Author: , Post Date: November 27, 2019
FAANG stocks hit hard by U.S.-China trade war

Yahoo Finance Highlight: The trade war rages on Nov 22, 2019 Watch the embedded video from Yahoo Finance below or at this link: https://finance.yahoo.com/video/trade-war-rages-141444340.html Yahoo Finance’s Adam Shapiro, Julie Hyman, Dan Roberts and Cumberland Advisors Chairman & CIO David Kotok discuss how the trade war has ruined relations between the U.S. and China and how […]

Bloomberg Surveillance: Negative Interest Rates with Kotok (Radio Podcast)

Author: David R. Kotok, Post Date:
Market Commentary - Cumberland Advisors - NIRP Quote (David Kotok)

Cumberland Advisors’ David R. Kotok talks about negative interest rates, NIRP, and says the European Central Bank’s (ECB) Christine Lagarde has a difficult task right now. He also discusses China, the pork shortage, and the impact of viruses on the global food supply. Running time 25:02, David is introduced at the 10:45 mark – Play […]