Tag Archives: David R. Kotok

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Cumberland Advisors Market Commentary – Vaccines and Variants – Part 1

Author: David R. Kotok, Post Date: February 25, 2021
Market Commentary - Cumberland Advisors – Vaccines and Variants - Part 1

Vaccines and Variants – Part 1 “Can the same vaccines protect against new COVID strains?” That is now the question of the hour, day, week, and month. We are seeing a remarkable triumph of science and medicine. In a very short time vaccines are in mass production, and they are highly effective. They are not perfect, as […]

Cumberland Advisors Market Commentary – Real Interest Rates & Fed

Author: David R. Kotok, Post Date: February 23, 2021
Market Commentary - Cumberland Advisors - Real Interest Rates & Fed

Jim Reid, Managing Director and Head of Global Fundamental Credit Strategy at Deutsche Bank, in London, gave us permission to share this marvelous historical chart: It may give folks pause as they contemplate their forecasts of rapidly changing (rising) inflation rates because the federal deficit is higher than they’re accustomed to. One might actually want […]

Cumberland Advisors Commentary – Ed Rooksby R.I.P.

Author: David R. Kotok, Post Date: February 21, 2021
Market-Commentary-Cumberland-Advisors-David-Sunday-Ed-Rooksby-R.I.P.

On January 8th, Dr. Ed Rooksby, political theorist and lecturer at the University of York, wrote a blog post about his struggle with long COVID, detailing the stark contrasts between his life before COVID and after. He made this critical point: “This isn’t ‘just’ elderly people or those with ‘pre-existing health conditions’, but includes relatively […]

Cumberland Advisors Market Commentary – Israel & Vaccines

Author: David R. Kotok, Post Date: February 19, 2021
Market Commentary - Cumberland Advisors - Israel & Vaccines

Israel: The World’s COVID-19 Vaccination Case Study Imagine a country of 9.3 million with a well-designed vaccine program that has administered 70+ doses of the Pfizer vaccine per every 100 members of its population thus far. Israel’s policy has been to pay a premium for supply and to actively and effectively manage distribution. They recognized the […]

Cumberland Advisors Market Commentary – Polar Vortex

Author: David R. Kotok, Post Date: February 18, 2021
Market Commentary - Cumberland Advisors - Polar Vortex

A Feb.16 Bloomberg article delved into the somewhat surprising connection between a warming Arctic and the subzero temperatures and widespread blackouts in Texas: “How the Warming Arctic Helped Drive a Deep Freeze Into Texas,” https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-02-16/how-the-warming-arctic-helped-drive-a-deep-freeze-into-texas. We recently featured a guest commentary by Bob Bunting, CEO of the Climate Adaptation Center (CAC), regarding the polar vortex. […]

Cumberland Advisors Market Commentary – Warren Buffett Indicator

Author: David R. Kotok, Post Date: February 16, 2021
Market Commentary - Cumberland Advisors - Warren Buffett Indicator

The link below will take the reader to a detailed four-minute essay (with good graphics) on the market value to GDP ratio, otherwise known as the “Warren Buffett indicator.” For a discussion about which market valuation to use, and for insights on whether GDP or GNP is the appropriate reference, we recommend reading the piece […]

Cumberland Advisors Commentary – Moscow & Presidents Day

Author: David R. Kotok, Post Date: February 14, 2021
Moscow-&-Presidents-Day

America’s January 6th nightmare was replayed for all to see again; previously unknown security video has been added. The Constitutionally prescribed Senate process and the outcome are determined by our system.  And now the national policy debate of who we are and how we do these things is again joined.  Tune in CNN, Fox, MSNBC, Newsmax […]

Cumberland Advisors Market Commentary – Don’t Fight the Fed — Yet

Author: Chris Whalen & David R. Kotok, Post Date: February 11, 2021
CA-Chris-Whalen-Guest-Commentary-2021

My friend Chris Whalen opened his Feb. 9 missive with profound words: “Don’t Fight the Fed – Yet” (https://www.theinstitutionalriskanalyst.com/post/don-t-fight-the-fed-yet). Here’s why we fully concur. Bullets follow. 1. The Federal Reserve’s policy is clear: above 2% inflation on a sustained averaging trajectory, as measured by year-over-year PCE. We are at least two years away from that […]