Tag Archives: Economy

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Cumberland Advisors Market Commentary – JOLTS and a Sobering View of Labor Market Conditions

Author: Robert Eisenbeis, Ph.D., Post Date: January 15, 2021
Robert Eisenbeis

Although the news is somewhat stale, the January 12 release of the BLS’s Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) for November provides some additional information about the underlying dynamics of the labor market as we approached the December virus surge. The picture we see reflects some calming in the labor market after a huge […]

Cumberland Advisors Market Commentary – Politics: Aaarrgh!

Author: David R. Kotok, Post Date: December 30, 2020
Market Commentary - Cumberland Advisors - Politics Aaarrgh!

About 20 million people in America were at sharply increased financial risk if Trump hadn’t signed the new stimulus bill. I asked Mike Englund of Action Economics for a breakdown. Here’s what he sent. “This is taken straight from the initial claims report from the DOL: Unemployment Insurance Benefits in All Programs Week ending December […]

Cumberland Advisors Market Commentary — CIO Overview – 2021 Market & Macro Outlook

Author: David R. Kotok, Post Date: December 21, 2020

“Now what?” we are asked after a 2020 that saw a full-year market whipsaw round trip, coupled with a COVID-induced economic deep dive in the spring. The V-shaped recovery that followed is starting to falter. Let’s take a look in this 2021 market & macro outlook. Jim Bianco has given us permission to use a […]

Cumberland Advisors Market Commentary – The Frog & The Scorpion

Author: David R. Kotok, Post Date: December 13, 2020
Market-Commentary-Cumberland-Advisors-David-Sunday-The-Frog-&-The-Scorpion

We want to paraphrase and update an ancient parable which originated for us along the banks of the Jordan River, as it flows from the Sea of Galilee to the Dead Sea. The Jordan defines the border between modern-day Israel, Jordan, and Palestinian Authority territory. (For the original parable, see https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Scorpion_and_the_Frog.) Here’s the modern American version. […]

Cumberland Advisors Market Commentary – Siesta, Longboat, COVID, Masks & More

Author: David R. Kotok, Post Date: December 11, 2020
Market Commentary - Cumberland Advisors - Siesta, Longboat, COVID, Masks & More

Sarasota-based, Cumberland champions mask wearing and other COVID-prevention measures. We also champion business.  We believe that Florida’s economics are better served with basic prevention measures in place. We would not lock down everything. We would require basic civic responsibilities, such as mask wearing in a deadly pandemic. The principle is the same as permitting or […]

Cumberland Advisors Market Commentary –  COVID, COVID, COVID! Recovery?

Author: David R. Kotok, Post Date: November 20, 2020
Cumberland Advisors Market Commentary - COVID, COVID, COVID! Recovery

A Bleak Short-Term COVID Outlook, Then Recovery Dawns Fact is, during the darkest hours before light breaks, dawn is already racing toward us across the surface of the turning world. That’s an image – a reassuring metaphor – that can sustain us now. America’s darkest hours in the COVID-19 pandemic lie just ahead, over the […]

Cumberland Advisors Market Commentary –  Yogi Response

Author: , Post Date: November 2, 2020
Market Commentary - Cumberland Advisors - Yogi Response

Commentaries regularly create opportunities to broaden the conversation with readers. A number of readers responded to my take on the election, “Yogi: It Aint Over,” posted on October 14 (https://www.cumber.com/yogi-it-aint-over/). Some readers questioned the DataTrek outline of stock market results. They speculated that, since a new president takes office four months into a federal budget year, […]

Cumberland Advisors Market Commentary – Hope – An Update

Author: Robert Eisenbeis, Ph.D., Post Date: October 2, 2020
Cumberland Advisors Market Commentary - Hope – An Update - Robert-Eisenbeis, Ph.D.

Our commentary “FOMC: Hope Now Seems to Be a Strategy” (https://www.cumber.com/cumberland-advisors-market-commentary-fomc-hope-now-seems-to-be-a-strategy/) focused on the FOMC’s latest decision to keep its target for the federal funds rate between 0–.25%, to change its strategy for policy going forward to focus on shortfalls in labor markets from what the Committee perceives to be full employment, and to shift […]