Tag Archives: Economy

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Barron’s – The Unemployment Rate Is “Grossly” Understated. Here’s Why

Author: , Post Date: July 1, 2020
Cumberland Advisors John Mousseau

The Unemployment Rate Is “Grossly” Understated. Here’s Why. Excerpt from Barron’s – July 02, 2020 A portion of John Mousseau, CFA’s commentary, The Muni Selloff That Was, was incorporated into Barron’s editorial piece, “The Unemployment Rate Is ‘Grossly’ Understated. Here’s Why.” July 1: The infrastructure bill being considered by Congress contains two pluses for the […]

Cumberland Advisors Market Commentary –  Update from ECRI

Author: David R. Kotok, Post Date: June 24, 2020
Market Commentary - Cumberland Advisors - A Nasty, Short and Bitter Recession (ECRI)

“A Nasty, Short and Bitter Recession”: An Update First: here’s some very important history; then, the updated forecast! The Economic Cycle Research Institute (ECRI) specializes in “calling cycle turning points in economic growth and inflation” and has a long, exemplary history of getting those forecasts right (https://www.businesscycle.com). Cofounded by the late Geoffrey H. Moore, winner […]

Cumberland Advisors Market Commentary – Not What It Seems: Where’s the Beef?

Author: Robert Eisenbeis, Ph.D., Post Date: June 23, 2020
Not What It Seems: Where’s the Beef?

As reported previously, the Federal Reserve has embarked upon an evolving series of support and lending programs as part of its emergency response to the COVID-19 pandemic. As Chairman Powell stated in his post-FOMC meeting press conference and in subsequent Congressional testimony, the Fed has responded “forcefully, proactively and aggressively” to the crisis. This is […]

Cumberland Advisors Market Commentary –  Loretta Mester Interview

Author: David R. Kotok, Post Date: June 19, 2020
Fed president & CEO Loretta Mester On Demand Interview

Loretta Mester has a distinguished, multi-decade career with the Federal Reserve. She currently serves as president and CEO of the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, votes on the FOMC, and immerses herself deeply in the issues of America’s banks and financial institutions. She agreed to an extended and detailed hour-long discussion with GIC. Here’s the […]

Cumberland Advisors Market Commentary – The FOMC: Whatever (and However Long) It Takes

Author: Robert Eisenbeis, Ph.D., Post Date: June 17, 2020
Market Commentary - Cumberland Advisors - The FOMC Whatever (and However Long) It Takes

To no one’s surprise, the FOMC in its June meeting reaffirmed its 0–25 basis-point target for the federal funds rate. Markets did not react well, especially since the announcement came on the heels of a fairly downbeat assessment by Chairman Powell regarding the expected slow path for the recovery and the problems in the labor […]

Instant View: Wall Street backslides on economic gloom, uptick in virus cases

Author: , Post Date: June 12, 2020
Cumberland-Advisors-David-Kotok-In-The-News

Instant View: Wall Street backslides on economic gloom, uptick in virus cases Reuters – June 12, 2020 Excerpt below: NEW YORK (Reuters) – Wall Street indexes nosedived on Thursday, on track for their worst days since early in the coronavirus pandemic as investors reassessed a stocks resurgence after the Fed issued a gloomy growth forecast […]

Cumberland Advisors Market Commentary – Inflation, Deflation, and Capacity Utilization – Part 2

Author: Robert Eisenbeis, Ph.D., Post Date: June 3, 2020
Market Commentary - Cumberland Advisors - Inflation, Deflation, and Capacity Utilization – Part 2

Bloomberg’s Lisa Abramowicz recently tweeted, “When you measure the prices of things Americans are spending money on right now, ‘it turns out that the actual inflation rate is not as low’ as the data suggest” (https://twitter.com/lisaabramowicz1/status/1263868020516151298). Her evidence was a chart showing how spending for food at home had jumped while spending on food away […]

Bloomberg Daybreak Australia: David Kotok Discusses Dislocation in Markets/Economy

Author: , Post Date: May 27, 2020
Bloomberg Daybreak Australia with David R. Kotok (05-27-2020)

Bloomberg Daybreak Australia: David Kotok Discusses Dislocation in Markets/Economy May 27, 2020 – Running time 48:27 – David joins at the 8:20 mark David Kotok, Chairman & Chief Investment Officer at Cumberland Advisors, discusses markets, market dislocation, the economy, coronavirus, growth rates, liquidity, the bargain he sees in municipal bonds, and more. Hosted by Haidi […]

Cumberland Advisors Market Commentary – Inflation and Capacity Utilization

Author: Robert Eisenbeis, Ph.D. & David R. Kotok, Post Date: May 22, 2020
Market Commentary - Cumberland Advisors - Inflation, Deflation, and Capacity Utilization

At Cumberland, we continuously have internal strategy discussions. We decided to make one such discussion, on the subject of inflation and US capacity utilization, available in the form of a commentary to clients, consultants, and all readers. Below you’ll find a summation of our discussion, written by Bob Eisenbeis, Cumberland Advisors Chief Monetary Economist. -David […]

Barron’s – Wave Of COVID-19 Bankruptcies Poses Next Threat To US Economy

Author: , Post Date: May 14, 2020
Cumberland-Advisors-David-Kotok-In-The-News

Wave Of COVID-19 Bankruptcies Poses Next Threat To US Economy Excerpt from Barron’s (AFP News) – May 13, 2020 By John Biers Larger companies have generally survived the initial blow from the coronavirus crisis, but still face existential challenges to get through what will probably be a long and grinding recovery. Since COVID-19 shuttered much […]