Tag Archives: Employment

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Cumberland Advisors Market Commentary – JOLTS and a Sobering View of Labor Market Conditions

Author: Robert Eisenbeis, Ph.D., Post Date: January 15, 2021
Robert Eisenbeis

Although the news is somewhat stale, the January 12 release of the BLS’s Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) for November provides some additional information about the underlying dynamics of the labor market as we approached the December virus surge. The picture we see reflects some calming in the labor market after a huge […]

Cumberland Advisors Market Commentary – Politics: Aaarrgh!

Author: David R. Kotok, Post Date: December 30, 2020
Market Commentary - Cumberland Advisors - Politics Aaarrgh!

About 20 million people in America were at sharply increased financial risk if Trump hadn’t signed the new stimulus bill. I asked Mike Englund of Action Economics for a breakdown. Here’s what he sent. “This is taken straight from the initial claims report from the DOL: Unemployment Insurance Benefits in All Programs Week ending December […]

Cumberland Advisors Market Commentary – Jobs – As Yearend Approaches

Author: Robert Eisenbeis, Ph.D., Post Date: December 7, 2020
Cumberland Advisors Market Commentary - Jobs – As Yearend Approaches (Eisenbeis)

On Friday we got the last look at how the economy is performing, jobs-wise, before the end of the year. On the positive side, the economy did create 245,000 jobs in November, and the unemployment rate edged down to 6.7 percent. We note that critics argue the estimate is too low due to problems within […]

Cumberland Advisors Market Commentary – Municipal Employment

Author: Patricia Healy, CFA, Post Date: November 12, 2020
Market Commentary - Cumberland Advisors - Municipal Employment - Patricia Healy, CFA

The positive jobs growth news, showing an increase of 638,000 jobs in October and a full one percent reduction in the unemployment rate to 6.9%, masked a decline in government employment. Private jobs were up by 906,000, led by an increase of 271,000 in hospitality and leisure, a sector that has been hit particularly hard […]

Cumberland Advisors Market Commentary – Markets, Events, Economics

Author: David R. Kotok, Post Date: October 7, 2020
David R. Kotok

Market-moving events and data points are coming fast, and in a chaotic sequence. Here are some bullets we are watching. 1. The outlook for elections is still highly uncertain and volatile. Biden appears to be strengthening. Texas governor Greg Abbott has restricted drop boxes for absentee ballots to one per county (“Texas governor shuts down drop-off […]

Cumberland Advisors Market Commentary – JOLTS – July

Author: Robert Eisenbeis, Ph.D., Post Date: September 16, 2020
Cumberland Advisors' Robert "Bob" Eisenbeis, Ph.D.

The BLS Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) data come out with a lag, so we are now just getting a look at the July numbers. They do, however, help fill in some of the labor dynamics that are occurring within the economy as we adjust to the COVID-19 pandemic shock. We know that […]

Cumberland Advisors Market Commentary – Beveridge Curves

Author: David R. Kotok, Post Date: August 23, 2020
Beveridge Curves Aug 2020

We’ve prepared a series of Beveridge curve graphics so that readers can see the dramatic changes in the composition and direction of various labor-force-related measures. We are using a visual Beveridge curve approach. The charts (30 of them) are available from our website. Below is the link. https://cumber.com/pdf/Beveridge-Curves-Covid-Aug-2020.pdf The 30 charts are graphic and dramatic […]

Cumberland Advisors Market Commentary – A Quick Look at Job Creation

Author: Robert Eisenbeis, Ph.D., Post Date: August 11, 2020
Market Commentary - Cumberland Advisors - A Quick Look at Job Creation (Eisenbeis)

Each month, the BLS produces a wealth of data from both its household survey and its establishment survey. The latter, in particular, gives us a view of where jobs are actually being created during this terrible pandemic. Normally, the data widely cited from these surveys are seasonally adjusted, but for our purposes we will look […]

Cumberland Advisors Market Commentary – Digging Deeper

Author: Robert Eisenbeis, Ph.D., Post Date: June 9, 2020
Market Commentary - Cumberland Advisors - Digging Deeper- Who Was and Was Not Employed

On Friday, the Dow bounced over 750 points, reacting to the May employment report. In truth, it seems that participants never read beyond the first sentence, which stated: “Total nonfarm payroll employment rose by 2.5 million in May (private sector employment increased 3.1 million while government employment declined by 585 thousand) and the unemployment rate […]

Cumberland Advisors Market Commentary – Comments on April Job Losses

Author: David R. Kotok, Post Date: May 11, 2020
Cumberland Advisors Market Commentary - APRIL JOB LOSSES - TLRwire

Dear readers, Here’s a meaty analysis of the Friday employment report.  Please note the link will take you to a $27 a month trial.  After you read this report, you may find it worthwhile. Please note: I’m a paying subscriber. Enjoy. -David COMMENTS ON APRIL JOB LOSSES TLR Analytics An appalling employment report, reflecting massive […]