Tag Archives: Federal Reserve

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Cumberland Advisors Market Commentary – Attack on the Fed, Market Reaction: A One-Day Saga

Author: David R. Kotok, Post Date: January 5, 2021
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Dear readers, we narrowly avoided a catastrophe. I use that word because an action by Congress to eliminate or neuter the power of the central bank to intervene as lender of last resort in a crisis is exactly the way to create a catastrophe. The 1929–1933 period of American history is evidence of how a […]

Cumberland Advisors Market Commentary – The December FOMC

Author: Robert Eisenbeis, Ph.D., Post Date: December 18, 2020
Federal Reserve - FOMC

Prior to the Fed’s December FOMC meeting there was a general consensus among economists (see the December NABE forecast, for example) that the Committee would not change its federal funds rate target. But the media was filled with speculation that the FOMC would possibly increase its asset purchase program or begin to purchase longer-maturity Treasuries. […]

Cumberland Advisors Market Commentary – Fed: Data-driven?

Author: David R. Kotok, Post Date: December 17, 2020
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The chart below was featured in a Bloomberg column by John Authors, published on December 16 (“Fed’s Last Christmas Before Biden Is All About WAM,” https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2020-12-16/fed-s-last-christmas-before-biden-is-all-about-wam). Core PCE has emerged as the most important inflation measure, as it is likely to have a stronger influence on the Fed’s policy decisions than other inflation measures. We […]

Cumberland Advisors Market Commentary – Interest Rates and Yield Curve Control, Part 4

Author: David R. Kotok, Post Date: December 4, 2020
Market Commentary - Cumberland Advisors - Interest Rates and Yield Curve Control, Part 4

In Part 4 of our series on interest rates and yield curve control, we will examine two charts and two related tables to help explain yield curve control and implications for the Treasurys market. The first three parts are available here: Part 1, https://www.cumber.com/cumberland-advisors-market-commentary-interest-rates-and-yield-curve-control-part-1/ Part 2, https://www.cumber.com/cumberland-advisors-market-commentary-interest-rates-and-yield-curve-control-part-2/ Part 3, https://www.cumber.com/cumberland-advisors-market-commentary-interest-rates-and-yield-curve-control-part-3/. The first chart and table […]

Cumberland Advisors Market Commentary – Interest Rates and Yield Curve Control, Part 3

Author: David R. Kotok, Post Date: September 24, 2020

To understand US interest rates and how yield curve control works, it is critical to consider the effects of negative interest rates coupled with yield curve control, as already applied outside the US. We have written several times about the impact of negative interest rate policy (NIRP) on worldwide interest rates. In the current pandemic […]

Cumberland Advisors Market Commentary – Echoes of 1968

Author: David R. Kotok, Post Date: September 6, 2020
Market Commentary - Cumberland Advisors - Echoes of 1968

Brent Donnelly is a good friend and fellow camper at Leen’s Lodge. He is also a highly respected senior FX dealer at HSBC New York and the author of The Art of Currency Trading and the daily FX commentary AM/FX. On September 3, Brent penned “Echoes of ’68,” a thought-provoking comparison of the years 1968 […]

David Kotok on the Markets (Radio)

Author: , Post Date: September 2, 2020
Cumberland Advisors' David Kotok Radio Interview

David Kotok on the Markets (Radio) September 01, 2020 – Running time 09:06 David Kotok, CIO at Cumberland Advisors, discusses his market outlook. He speaks with Bryan Curtis and Paul Allen on Bloomberg Daybreak Asia. LISTEN HERE: https://www.bloomberg.com/news/audio/2020-09-01/david-kotok-on-the-markets-radio NOTE: Links to other websites or electronic media controlled or offered by Third-Parties (non-affiliates of Cumberland Advisors) […]

MarketWatch: The Fed’s new policy may have just ushered in a new era of uncertainty on Wall Street

Author: , Post Date: August 29, 2020
Cumberland Advisors Robert "Bob" Eisenbeis Ph.D. In The NewsCumberland-Advisors-Robert "Bob" Eisenbeis Ph.D. In-The-News

Aug. 29, 2020 By Mark DeCambre Excerpt below. Market volatility may increase without more guidance on how the Fed’s policy will be implemented. As the Fed has put it, “if inflation expectations fall, interest rates would decline too.” And receding interest rates make it difficult for the Fed to use its main tool for managing […]

Cumberland Advisors Market Commentary – FOMC and Revisions to Its Longer-Run Policy Strategy

Author: Robert Eisenbeis, Ph.D., Post Date: August 28, 2020
Market Commentary - Cumberland Advisors - FOMC and Revisions to Its Longer-Run Policy Strategy

On the day of Chairman Powell’s opening speech for this year’s virtual annual Jackson Hole Economic Policy Symposium, hosted by the Kansas City Fed, the Federal Reserve released an update to its January 2012 “Statement on Longer-Run Goals and Monetary Policy Strategy.” This commentary describes the changes in the strategy and discusses what may be […]

Cumberland Advisors Market Commentary – Interest Rates and Yield Curve Control, Part 2

Author: David R. Kotok, Post Date: August 13, 2020
Market Commentary - Cumberland Advisors - Interest Rates and Yield Curve Control, Part 2

This is part 2 in a series on interest rates and yield curve controls. Here’s the link to part 1: https://www.cumber.com/cumberland-advisors-market-commentary-interest-rates-and-yield-curve-control-part-1/ First, we want to thank BCA Research and our friend Caroline Miller, Chief Strategist at BCA, for permission to share their charts. At Cumberland, we use BCA Research. My colleague John Mousseau and I […]