Tag Archives: Inflation


Cumberland Advisors Market Commentary – Inflation and Capacity Utilization

Author: Robert Eisenbeis, Ph.D. & David R. Kotok, Post Date: May 22, 2020
Cumberland Advisors' Robert "Bob" Eisenbeis, Ph.D.

At Cumberland, we continuously have internal strategy discussions. We decided to make one such discussion, on the subject of inflation and US capacity utilization, available in the form of a commentary to clients, consultants, and all readers. Below you’ll find a summation of our discussion, written by Bob Eisenbeis, Cumberland Advisors Chief Monetary Economist. -David […]

Cumberland Advisors Market Commentary – Inflation/Deflation: What Do We Know Now?

Author: Robert Eisenbeis, Ph.D., Post Date: May 18, 2020
Cumberland Advisors' Robert "Bob" Eisenbeis, Ph.D.

The most recent CPI numbers show a decline of 0.8% for the month of April, triggering questions about both a possible deflation and where prices are likely to go in the future. The fact is that no one knows what inflation will do in the short run, and all we have to go on, as […]

Vanguard’s market forecasts for 2020 and beyond? Higher, but not as juicy as the 2010 decade.

Author: , Post Date: January 1, 2020

Excerpt from… Vanguard’s market forecasts for 2020 and beyond? Higher, but not as juicy as the 2010 decade. December 31, 2019 – by Erin Arvedlund Inflation Retirees and other investors feel they’re paying more for everyday items, especially health care and tuition, even though the Federal Reserve claims inflation is hovering around 2% annually. Jim […]

Cumberland Advisors Market Commentary – Year-End & 2020 Forecast Note #4: Inflation

Author: David R. Kotok, Post Date: December 6, 2019
Market Commentary - Cumberland Advisors - Year-End-&-2020-Forecast-Notes 4 - Inflation

The outlook for inflation and for inflation-sensitive financial instruments is still highly uncertain. Note that this prognosis includes TIPS on the bond side and certain inflation-sensitive stock groups on the equity side. The world’s mature economies have been trying to get inflation up to 2% or higher for many years. They’ve had no success. An […]

Cumberland Advisors Market Commentary – Interest Rates, Inflation & Markets

Author: , Post Date: August 28, 2019
David R. Kotok

“Americans will always do the right thing — after exhausting all the alternatives.” Winston Churchill? Abba Eban? An Irishman? Apocryphal? For a history of the quote, see: https://quoteinvestigator.com/2012/11/11/exhaust-alternatives/ . When it comes to interest rates, inflation, and financial markets, that hopeful outcome is being sorely tested. We’ll look at some current evidence of US economic trouble […]

Cumberland Advisors Market Commentary – MMT and Camp Kotok

Author: Robert Eisenbeis, Ph.D., Post Date: August 26, 2019

As David Kotok noted in his description of the intellectual discussions that occurred at Camp Kotok in Grand Lake Stream, Maine, one of the topics was so-called Modern Monetary Theory, or MMT.[1] There were four panelists, who were asked to take different sides for the sake of argument, representing positions from the most favorable to […]

Cumberland Advisors Market Commentary – Markets During Apollo 11

Author: John R. Mousseau, CFA, Post Date: August 1, 2019
Cumberland Advisors Market Commentary - Markets During Apollo 11

This past week we celebrated the 50th anniversary of the Apollo 11 moon landing. Remarkably, only 1/3 of Americans today were alive when that happened. As a 12-year-old kid I was riveted by the space program and tried to digest the minutia of every flight. Like a lot of kids, we watched the moon landing […]

Fed Independence

Author: Robert Eisenbeis, Ph.D., Post Date: July 23, 2018
Cumberland Advisors Market Commentary by Robert Eisenbeis, Ph.D.

In the wake of the turmoil in Washington, DC, over his performance in Helsinki, President Trump also took a sideswipe at the Federal Reserve, criticizing the FOMC’s recent efforts to normalize policy.

Most presidents – though not all – have understood that Fed independence ensures separation from the Treasury and serves as a check on fiscal excesses. When a central bank takes orders from the fiscal side of government, history shows that inflation and economic decline soon follow.

May FOMC Decision

Author: Robert Eisenbeis, Ph.D., Post Date: May 4, 2018
Cumberland Advisors Market Commentary by Robert Eisenbeis, Ph.D.

To no one’s surprise, the FOMC left its target range for the federal funds rate constant at 1.5 to 1.75%. This decision maintains the Committee’s record of no rate hikes at meetings where no SEP forecasts were available and also spaces out its gradual normalization of policy. There is virtually no information in the statement […]

U.S. Stocks Gain on Solid Jobs Report

Author: , Post Date: March 9, 2018

Excerpt below: Stocks moved firmly higher after the latest monthly jobs report showed wage growth had eased, tamping down concerns among investors that bigger paychecks could lead to a rise in inflation and force the Federal Reserve to hasten its pace of short-term interest rates to tame it. “It’s a fantastic report for the economy,” […]