Tag Archives: Inflation

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Cumberland Advisors Market Commentary – Interest Rates and Yield Curve Control, Part 3

Author: David R. Kotok, Post Date: September 24, 2020

To understand US interest rates and how yield curve control works, it is critical to consider the effects of negative interest rates coupled with yield curve control, as already applied outside the US. We have written several times about the impact of negative interest rate policy (NIRP) on worldwide interest rates. In the current pandemic […]

The IRA: Powell Fed Embraces Monetary Relativity

Author: Chris Whalen, Post Date: September 23, 2020
Cumberland Advisors Robert "Bob" Eisenbeis Ph.D. In The NewsCumberland-Advisors-Robert "Bob" Eisenbeis Ph.D. In-The-News

Chris Whalen quotes Bob Eisenbeis and others for his publication, The Institutional Risk Analyst, on financial and banking issues. Read this excerpt from a September 2020 edition or the full post linked below. The idea of the FOMC deciding when average inflation targeting (AIT) has made up for periods of price deflation seems to stretch […]

Cumberland Advisors Market Commentary – FOMC: Hope Now Seems to Be a Strategy

Author: Robert Eisenbeis, Ph.D., Post Date: September 18, 2020
Cumberland Advisors Market Commentary - FOMC Hope Now Seems to Be a Strategy (Eisenbeis)

The FOMC finished its September deliberations and published its first statement and Summary of Economic Projections (SEPs) since the revision of its policy strategy was announced on the eve of the Kansas City Fed’s annual August Jackson Hole Symposium. The statement began by reiterating that the FOMC stands ready to employ its full range of […]

Fed’s Jay Powell creating ’zombie’ firms, says noted Fed watcher

Author: , Post Date: September 7, 2020
Cumberland-Advisors-David-Kotok-In-The-News

Excerpt from… Fed’s Jay Powell creating ’zombie’ firms, says noted Fed watcher September 7, 2020 – by Erin Arvedlund Is the Federal Reserve’s lower-for-longer interest rate policy worsening the income divide and benefiting Wall Street, not Main Street? Is it actually thwarting innovation in the markets? Yes, concludes Danielle DiMartino Booth, CEO and chief strategist […]

MarketWatch: The Fed’s new policy may have just ushered in a new era of uncertainty on Wall Street

Author: , Post Date: August 29, 2020
Cumberland Advisors Robert "Bob" Eisenbeis Ph.D. In The NewsCumberland-Advisors-Robert "Bob" Eisenbeis Ph.D. In-The-News

Aug. 29, 2020 By Mark DeCambre Excerpt below. Market volatility may increase without more guidance on how the Fed’s policy will be implemented. As the Fed has put it, “if inflation expectations fall, interest rates would decline too.” And receding interest rates make it difficult for the Fed to use its main tool for managing […]

Cumberland Advisors Market Commentary – FOMC and Revisions to Its Longer-Run Policy Strategy

Author: Robert Eisenbeis, Ph.D., Post Date: August 28, 2020
Market Commentary - Cumberland Advisors - FOMC and Revisions to Its Longer-Run Policy Strategy

On the day of Chairman Powell’s opening speech for this year’s virtual annual Jackson Hole Economic Policy Symposium, hosted by the Kansas City Fed, the Federal Reserve released an update to its January 2012 “Statement on Longer-Run Goals and Monetary Policy Strategy.” This commentary describes the changes in the strategy and discusses what may be […]

Cumberland Advisors Market Commentary – Inflation?

Author: Robert Eisenbeis, Ph.D., Post Date: August 19, 2020
Cumberland Advisors' Robert "Bob" Eisenbeis, Ph.D.

During an August 14, 2020, lecture at the Center for Financial Stability, Charles Goodhart (former member of the Bank of England’s Monetary Policy Committee and professor at the London School of Economics) mused about the US’s current economic slowdown and the prospects for inflation that might result because of the extraordinary increase in the money […]

Inflation TIPS: Living On The Hedge

Author: , Post Date: August 14, 2020

Rida Morwa quotes John R. Mousseau in a recent commentary, dated August 14, 2020 on Seeking Alpha Excerpt follows: There are two major risks of TIPS. The first is that the inflation rate it’s tied to is calculated by the CPI which is a government calculated index. While we are not in the conspiracy theory […]

Cumberland Advisors Market Commentary – Interest Rates and Yield Curve Control, Part 2

Author: David R. Kotok, Post Date: August 13, 2020
Market Commentary - Cumberland Advisors - Interest Rates and Yield Curve Control, Part 2

This is part 2 in a series on interest rates and yield curve controls. Here’s the link to part 1: https://www.cumber.com/cumberland-advisors-market-commentary-interest-rates-and-yield-curve-control-part-1/ First, we want to thank BCA Research and our friend Caroline Miller, Chief Strategist at BCA, for permission to share their charts. At Cumberland, we use BCA Research. My colleague John Mousseau and I […]

Cumberland Advisors Market Commentary – Interest Rates and Yield Curve Control, Part 1

Author: David R. Kotok, Post Date: August 10, 2020
Market Commentary - Cumberland Advisors - Interest Rates and Yield Curve Control, Part 1

“The Trimmed Mean PCE inflation rate is an alternative measure of core inflation in the price index for personal consumption expenditures (PCE). It is calculated by staff at the Dallas Fed, using data from the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA).” Through June 2020, “The Trimmed Mean PCE inflation rate over the 12 months ending in […]