Tag Archives: Inflation

image_pdfimage_print

Cumberland Advisors Market Commentary – Interest Rates and Yield Curve Control, Part 1

Author: David R. Kotok, Post Date: August 10, 2020
Market Commentary - Cumberland Advisors - Interest Rates and Yield Curve Control, Part 1

“The Trimmed Mean PCE inflation rate is an alternative measure of core inflation in the price index for personal consumption expenditures (PCE). It is calculated by staff at the Dallas Fed, using data from the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA).” Through June 2020, “The Trimmed Mean PCE inflation rate over the 12 months ending in […]

Cumberland Advisors Market Commentary – A Modest Proposal

Author: Robert Eisenbeis, Ph.D., Post Date: July 28, 2020
Market Commentary - Cumberland Advisors - A Modest Proposal

“In practice, the Fed has never adopted operating procedures designed to control reserves in order to use the money multiplier relationship to control deposits.” (Goodfriend and Hargraves, “A Historical Assessment of the Rationales and Functions of Reserve Requirements,” Source: https://www.richmondfed.org) In response to the pandemic crisis, the Federal Reserve has cut the federal funds rate […]

Cumberland Advisors Market Commentary –  Inflation coming? Maybe, maybe not?

Author: David R. Kotok, Post Date: July 23, 2020
Market Commentary - Cumberland Advisors - Inflation coming Maybe, maybe not

There are many prescriptions and forecast models for a coming inflation or the lack of it. They range widely. Some forecasts include deflation. Inflation adjusted bonds (like TIPS) are currently priced for very low inflation. Nominal bond markets are saying that little to no inflation is expected. That is why high grade bonds are pricing […]

Cumberland Advisors Market Commentary – Inflation, Deflation, and Capacity Utilization – Part 2

Author: Robert Eisenbeis, Ph.D., Post Date: June 3, 2020
Market Commentary - Cumberland Advisors - Inflation, Deflation, and Capacity Utilization – Part 2

Bloomberg’s Lisa Abramowicz recently tweeted, “When you measure the prices of things Americans are spending money on right now, ‘it turns out that the actual inflation rate is not as low’ as the data suggest” (https://twitter.com/lisaabramowicz1/status/1263868020516151298). Her evidence was a chart showing how spending for food at home had jumped while spending on food away […]

Cumberland Advisors Market Commentary – Inflation and Capacity Utilization

Author: Robert Eisenbeis, Ph.D. & David R. Kotok, Post Date: May 22, 2020
Market Commentary - Cumberland Advisors - Inflation, Deflation, and Capacity Utilization

At Cumberland, we continuously have internal strategy discussions. We decided to make one such discussion, on the subject of inflation and US capacity utilization, available in the form of a commentary to clients, consultants, and all readers. Below you’ll find a summation of our discussion, written by Bob Eisenbeis, Cumberland Advisors Chief Monetary Economist. -David […]

Cumberland Advisors Market Commentary – Inflation/Deflation: What Do We Know Now?

Author: Robert Eisenbeis, Ph.D., Post Date: May 18, 2020
Cumberland Advisors' Robert "Bob" Eisenbeis, Ph.D.

The most recent CPI numbers show a decline of 0.8% for the month of April, triggering questions about both a possible deflation and where prices are likely to go in the future. The fact is that no one knows what inflation will do in the short run, and all we have to go on, as […]

Vanguard’s market forecasts for 2020 and beyond? Higher, but not as juicy as the 2010 decade.

Author: , Post Date: January 1, 2020
Cumberland-Advisors-David-Kotok-In-The-News

Excerpt from… Vanguard’s market forecasts for 2020 and beyond? Higher, but not as juicy as the 2010 decade. December 31, 2019 – by Erin Arvedlund Inflation Retirees and other investors feel they’re paying more for everyday items, especially health care and tuition, even though the Federal Reserve claims inflation is hovering around 2% annually. Jim […]

Cumberland Advisors Market Commentary – Year-End & 2020 Forecast Note #4: Inflation

Author: David R. Kotok, Post Date: December 6, 2019
Market Commentary - Cumberland Advisors - Year-End-&-2020-Forecast-Notes 4 - Inflation

The outlook for inflation and for inflation-sensitive financial instruments is still highly uncertain. Note that this prognosis includes TIPS on the bond side and certain inflation-sensitive stock groups on the equity side. The world’s mature economies have been trying to get inflation up to 2% or higher for many years. They’ve had no success. An […]

Cumberland Advisors Market Commentary – Interest Rates, Inflation & Markets

Author: , Post Date: August 28, 2019
David R. Kotok

“Americans will always do the right thing — after exhausting all the alternatives.” Winston Churchill? Abba Eban? An Irishman? Apocryphal? For a history of the quote, see: https://quoteinvestigator.com/2012/11/11/exhaust-alternatives/ . When it comes to interest rates, inflation, and financial markets, that hopeful outcome is being sorely tested. We’ll look at some current evidence of US economic trouble […]

Cumberland Advisors Market Commentary – MMT and Camp Kotok

Author: Robert Eisenbeis, Ph.D., Post Date: August 26, 2019

As David Kotok noted in his description of the intellectual discussions that occurred at Camp Kotok in Grand Lake Stream, Maine, one of the topics was so-called Modern Monetary Theory, or MMT.[1] There were four panelists, who were asked to take different sides for the sake of argument, representing positions from the most favorable to […]