Tag Archives: Interest Rates

image_pdfimage_print

Cumberland Advisors Market Commentary – Central Banks, Capital Markets, Debt/Deflation, Real Income Growth, Interest Rates & Housing

Author: David R. Kotok, Post Date: September 13, 2019
Camp Kotok - Big Lake - Stacked Stones - Conversations from Camp Kotok

We wrapped up our Labor Day Camp Kotok with a round of excellent on-the-record discussions that we’re happy to share with you here. David Kotok and Charles Plosser at Camp Kotok: The Challenges Facing Central Banks David Kotok and Christopher Whalen at Camp Kotok: Capital Markets, Debt and Deflation David Kotok and Doug Duncan at […]

Cumberland Advisors Market Commentary – Interest Rates, Inflation & Markets

Author: , Post Date: August 28, 2019
David R. Kotok

“Americans will always do the right thing — after exhausting all the alternatives.” Winston Churchill? Abba Eban? An Irishman? Apocryphal? For a history of the quote, see: https://quoteinvestigator.com/2012/11/11/exhaust-alternatives/ . When it comes to interest rates, inflation, and financial markets, that hopeful outcome is being sorely tested. We’ll look at some current evidence of US economic trouble […]

Cumberland Advisors Market Commentary – The Bond Conundrum and How to Manage

Author: John R. Mousseau, CFA, Post Date: August 20, 2019
Market Commentary - Cumberland Advisors - Bond Conundrum

The past couple of weeks have been breathtaking for bond investors and observers of the bond market. The yield on the 30-year Treasury bond is now at a record low – it dipped under 2% this week – and the 10-year Treasury is not far off its record low of 1.36% set in July 2016 […]

Cumberland Advisors Market Commentary – To Pass or Not to Pass (Part 3)

Author: Robert Eisenbeis, Ph.D., Post Date: August 1, 2019
Market Commentary - Robert-Eisenbeis - To Pass or Not to Pass (Part 3)

The FOMC decided to throw a pass by cutting rates; but given the market’s response, it looks like they were tackled for a loss. In Woody Hayes’ parlance, the one positive of a forward pass turned into a negative. Powell attempted to offer three justifications for the policy move: to insure against downside risks, to […]

Cumberland Advisors Market Commentary – To Pass or Not to Pass? (Part 2)

Author: Robert Eisenbeis, Ph.D., Post Date: July 30, 2019
Federal Reserve - FOMC - Uncertainty, Risk, & Three Options

In our previous discussion of the three options facing the FOMC – raise the funds-rate target, hold the rate steady, or cut the target rate – we argued that there were risks and potentially negative consequences associated with each. The first option would shock markets and raise questions about the Committee’s rationale, regardless of what […]

Cumberland Advisors Market Commentary – To Pass or Not to Pass? (Part 1)

Author: Robert Eisenbeis, Ph.D., Post Date: July 15, 2019
Federal Reserve - FOMC - Uncertainty, Risk, & Three Options

Ohio State’s Woody Hayes used to say that his problem with the forward pass was that “Three things can happen, and two of them are bad.” Well, after Chairman Powell’s testimony last week, the FOMC may find itself in a similar position, only maybe worse. The Committee can do three things – lower rates, keep […]

The June FOMC

Author: Robert Eisenbeis, Ph.D., Post Date: June 24, 2019
Federal Reserve - FOMC

In the commentary leading up to the June meeting, I argued that some relaxation of the tariff issues with Mexico, combined with relatively good data for the US economy, would make the FOMC’s decision to hold pat on rates relatively easier. While the FOMC did decide at its June meeting to hold rates constant for […]

The Currency Wars Are Starting to Flare Up Again

Author: , Post Date: June 22, 2019
Cumberland-Advisors-David-Kotok-In-The-News

Excerpt from Bloomberg The Currency Wars Are Starting to Flare Up Again 06/18/2019 By Robert Burgess NEGATIVE YIELDS KEEP EXPANDING Draghi’s dovish comments did wonders for the sovereign bond market, sparking a rally that pushed yields lower almost everywhere around the world. French 10-year note yields fell to zero for the first time after Swedish […]