Politico – Wall Street braces for election chaos

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Wall Street braces for election chaos

By BEN WHITE and AUBREE ELIZA WEAVER – 09/25/2020

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Wall Street brace for election chaos — I write here at greater length on the question of what will happen to Wall Street if the election result is not known on Nov. 3 or anytime soon after. Or if President Trump clearly loses but cries fraud and refuses to leave.

Because Wall Street can deal with whoever wins the presidential election … What investors can’t stomach — and are increasingly nervous about — is a rapid descent into banana republic-style chaos.

“The rising uncertainty about a post-Election Day fight is already spurring increasingly aggressive bets on Wall Street for a surge in volatility in the coming weeks. … Wall Street analysts are bracing for a chaotic Election Day and a bitter battle to follow that could feature protests and even violence in the streets.

Cumberland’s David Kotok emails: “High yield spreads widening means falling stock prices means investors fleeing means Trump more shrill means more spread widening. POTUS sinks himself and investor class. Congress following POTUS’ lead. Aaarrgh!”

Read the full story at Politico: https://www.politico.com/newsletters/morning-money/2020/09/25/wall-street-braces-for-election-chaos-790628


Links to other websites or electronic media controlled or offered by Third-Parties (non-affiliates of Cumberland Advisors) are provided only as a reference and courtesy to our users. Cumberland Advisors has no control over such websites, does not recommend or endorse any opinions, ideas, products, information, or content of such sites, and makes no warranties as to the accuracy, completeness, reliability or suitability of their content. Cumberland Advisors hereby disclaims liability for any information, materials, products or services posted or offered at any of the Third-Party websites. The Third-Party may have a privacy and/or security policy different from that of Cumberland Advisors. Therefore, please refer to the specific privacy and security policies of the Third-Party when accessing their websites.

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Cumberland Advisors Market Commentaries offer insights and analysis on upcoming, important economic issues that potentially impact global financial markets. Our team shares their thinking on global economic developments, market news and other factors that often influence investment opportunities and strategies.




Politico – Wall Street loses altitude

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Wall Street loses altitude

By BEN WHITE and AUBREE ELIZA WEAVER – 09/18/2020

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Wall Street loses some altitude — Since peaking early this month around 29,000, the Dow has sagged back over 1,000 points amid signs of some economic slowing and the lack of any fresh stimulus out of Washington.

The next big inflection point for markets is likely the emergence of a Covid-19 vaccine, the prospect of which is keeping a bottom under any sell-offs (along with all the massive help from the Fed). When a real, tested and safe vaccine does emerge, it could catalyze another big rally.

Cumberland’s David Kotok emails: “The federal funding in advance and the production funding in advance has removed years of risk taking from pharma and transferred it to the US taxpayers. Never have we had such a risk transfer in public health. That is why we will have a 50-70 percent effective vaccine in distribution within a year. Risk transfer means acceleration of growth and upward markets are ahead.”

Read the full story at Politico: https://www.politico.com/newsletters/morning-money/2020/09/18/wall-street-loses-altitude-790478


Links to other websites or electronic media controlled or offered by Third-Parties (non-affiliates of Cumberland Advisors) are provided only as a reference and courtesy to our users. Cumberland Advisors has no control over such websites, does not recommend or endorse any opinions, ideas, products, information, or content of such sites, and makes no warranties as to the accuracy, completeness, reliability or suitability of their content. Cumberland Advisors hereby disclaims liability for any information, materials, products or services posted or offered at any of the Third-Party websites. The Third-Party may have a privacy and/or security policy different from that of Cumberland Advisors. Therefore, please refer to the specific privacy and security policies of the Third-Party when accessing their websites.

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Cumberland Advisors Market Commentaries offer insights and analysis on upcoming, important economic issues that potentially impact global financial markets. Our team shares their thinking on global economic developments, market news and other factors that often influence investment opportunities and strategies.




Politico – Economy to dominate the stretch run

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Economy to dominate the stretch run

By BEN WHITE and AUBREE ELIZA WEAVER – 09/08/2020

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Economy to dominate the stretch run — MM has written this before but it really came into focus this weekend as President Donald Trump and Vice President Mike Pence began an assault to convince Americans that the economy is roaring back and next year will be a blockbuster, while suggesting that a President Joe Biden would crush the markets and economy.

Trump tweeted: “Biggest & Fastest Financial Recovery In History. Next year will be BEST EVER, unless a very Sleepy person becomes President and massively raises your taxes – In which case, CRASH!”

And almost no one on Wall Street outside of hyper-partisans thinks Biden would tank the market or the economy. Cumberland’s David Kotok emails: “S&P 500 History: Since WW2 (1945), stocks do better when WH, House and Senate controlled by one party. Republicans average return 16%. Democrats average 14.3%. … Trump tweet has no history to support it unless he wins big, keeps R-Senate and House goes Republican. Hard to see how that happens.”

Read the full story at Politico: https://www.politico.com/newsletters/morning-money/2020/09/08/economy-to-dominate-the-stretch-run-790277


Links to other websites or electronic media controlled or offered by Third-Parties (non-affiliates of Cumberland Advisors) are provided only as a reference and courtesy to our users. Cumberland Advisors has no control over such websites, does not recommend or endorse any opinions, ideas, products, information, or content of such sites, and makes no warranties as to the accuracy, completeness, reliability or suitability of their content. Cumberland Advisors hereby disclaims liability for any information, materials, products or services posted or offered at any of the Third-Party websites. The Third-Party may have a privacy and/or security policy different from that of Cumberland Advisors. Therefore, please refer to the specific privacy and security policies of the Third-Party when accessing their websites.

Sign up for our FREE Cumberland Market Commentaries

Cumberland Advisors Market Commentaries offer insights and analysis on upcoming, important economic issues that potentially impact global financial markets. Our team shares their thinking on global economic developments, market news and other factors that often influence investment opportunities and strategies.