Cumberland Advisors Market Commentary –  Two Covers; Two Sectors

If you looked at the two different covers of The Economist for May 30, 2020, you saw the 100,000-death message on the American version, and you saw the Hong Kong security law depiction on the Asian edition. Internal content was mostly the same, but the lead stories reflected the world as the Economist editors saw it and wanted to portray it to their readers.

The-Economist-Covers

In my view, The Economist is the finest weekly global news magazine in the English-speaking world.

In the US, the contrasts in economics and financial markets are extraordinary. The stock market is setting recovery new highs, one after another. See the May 29th “Week in Review” video by Matt McAleer and the charts he uses in his discussion of the trading strength of this monster rally in the US market (https://youtu.be/isgC8sSacEI).  Anyone interested in those charts can email me, and I will ask that they be sent to you. At least one viewer found them hard to see on the video (beginning at 2:47).


 

The US higher-grade bond markets seem to be calming down. John Mousseau talks about them at the beginning of the May 29th weekly video clip linked above. Readers who like the Mousseau beard or who dislike it are invited to send an email to John and voice an opinion. There is a charity bet underway, so feel free to make your opinion known directly to John.

You can get the sense of Cumberland’s various portfolio positions from those two clips, so I won’t take time to repeat the points John and Matt make here. But there is an additional portfolio issue worth discussing that last week’s videos did not cover. The issue is what will happen to the US dollar in the FX markets and how that will impact the Energy sector and the Materials sector. The two covers of the Economist help frame this debate.

What is happening to Hong Kong is a geopolitical shock. A Cold War of words is intensifying between the two largest economies in the world. Some of the policy issues are troubling. Why fight with the WHO in the midst of a global pandemic when you need to achieve globally interdependent and curated outcomes in treatment and vaccines? If the US wants to pressure China, why not move for Taiwan’s admission to world bodies like the WHO instead of withdrawing (running away from the fight). Why not open the US visa program to Hong Kong citizens like the UK just did? We have done that in the past with Hungarians when a similar power shift occurred. We did that with Cuba after the Castro power grab. The intellectual property transfer to the US from China (Hong Kong) and the brain drain we could impose on China would be enormous. All could hugely benefit the United States.

Hong Kong is a monetary and financial center, and capital flight is underway. America can benefit immensely by attracting the flows and the talent. Our doing so will alter the US dollar for the benefit of the United States. We are still the strongest financial center in the world.

The two Economist covers also reveal the underlying determinants of stock market participation for the Energy sector and the Materials sector. Both sectors do well when the world’s economies are growing. Both are weakened by worldwide recession or depression. Both require longer-term capital investment, and neither can turn production on or off in a split second. Opening or closing a mine or shutting down a natural gas pipeline or drilling platform takes time and costs money. Companies try to manipulate the volumes rather than make “on or off” binary decisions. The COVID-19 shock was abrupt and not a business-cycle transition. If there is no second killer wave, the economic bottom at a very low level is happening now, and the recovery will accelerate for the rest of the year. Coming off such a dramatic and extreme shock means that the initial phase of recovery will be robust because it starts from such a low point.

Recovery means that demand will increase in the Energy and Materials sectors, though we do not yet know how fast demand will increase and in what components. And remember, both sectors are global in nature, and most commodities are traded and priced in US dollars in their worldwide trading regimes. This is where the two covers of the Economist come together. One cover warns about the fluctuation of the US currency and the geopolitical risk. The other warns about death and disease in America and the vast divide in American politics. The tragic death of George Floyd and the events that have erupted in response only confirm how fragile the American civil society has now become.

At Cumberland, we are in constant discussion about the Energy and Materials sectors. Matt McAleer and I have talked about them, and our research focused on them every day of last week. Energy, for example, is now about 3% of the capital weight of the S&P 500 index. That is a remarkable low point in the entirety of the post-World War 2 period. Having traded the sector twice in the last few years and lost both times, we are warned about the old adage, “Fool me once and shame on you; fool me twice and shame on me.” Do we take a third attempt with the Energy sector? The same logic can be applied to the Materials sector.

We have taken overweight positions in alternative forms of energy. We are overweight the solar and wind-power sectors and also hydroelectric power as part of an ESG strategy. In fact, those positions are very heavily overweighted in our US ETF portfolios. We would point to the new Gemini project in Nevada as a billion-dollar solar power structure that will power 200,000 households: “U.S. Approves Giant Solar Project in Nevada,” https://www.wsj.com/articles/u-s-approves-giant-solar-project-in-nevada-11589216400. For readers who want a lot of detail about why that move makes sense now, here’s a link to an in-depth discussion on solar power: “Solar’s Future is Insanely Cheap (2020),” https://rameznaam.com/2020/05/14/solars-future-is-insanely-cheap-2020/.

Two covers, two videos, two sectors. As of this writing, Cumberland hasn’t bought any direct positions in Energy or Materials. Please note that could change at any time.

David R. Kotok
Chairman of the Board & Chief Investment Officer
Email | Bio


Links to other websites or electronic media controlled or offered by Third-Parties (non-affiliates of Cumberland Advisors) are provided only as a reference and courtesy to our users. Cumberland Advisors has no control over such websites, does not recommend or endorse any opinions, ideas, products, information, or content of such sites, and makes no warranties as to the accuracy, completeness, reliability or suitability of their content. Cumberland Advisors hereby disclaims liability for any information, materials, products or services posted or offered at any of the Third-Party websites. The Third-Party may have a privacy and/or security policy different from that of Cumberland Advisors. Therefore, please refer to the specific privacy and security policies of the Third-Party when accessing their websites.

Sign up for our FREE Cumberland Market Commentaries

Cumberland Advisors Market Commentaries offer insights and analysis on upcoming, important economic issues that potentially impact global financial markets. Our team shares their thinking on global economic developments, market news and other factors that often influence investment opportunities and strategies.




Cumberland Advisors Week in Review (Apr 20, 2020 – Apr 24, 2020)

The Cumberland Advisors Week in Review is a recap of news, commentary, and opinion from our team.

Week In Review

These are not revised assessments, and circumstances may have changed in the market from the time of original publication. We also include older commentaries that our editors have determined may be of interest to our audience. Your feedback is always welcome.

CUMBERLAND ADVISORS’ WEEKLY RECAP

As part of Cumberland Advisors’ continuous effort to maintain strong customer relationships, we offer this week’s short video discussing current market conditions and how we are positioning portfolios.

Thank you for joining Cumberland Advisors for this end-of-week update on market conditions, bonds & equities with me, Matt McAleer, and John Mousseau.

John Mousseau leads today on this week’s video.He talks about:
-Period of normalcy this week for bonds.
-Key for this week: Deals came to market and got done easily. Most municipal bond deals were oversubscribed and that’s a good sign. We had stability in the markets.
-The real issue this week is Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell’s talk of states declaring bankruptcy instead of getting federal aid. There are a number of problems that this scenario raises.
-John wrote a commentary this week about McConnell’s statement and the link is here if you missed it: https://www.cumber.com/cumberland-advisors-market-commentary-mcconnell-as-meredith-whitney/

I’m next with my take on markets this week. My take on a few things:
-Another volatile week.
-What’s positive and negative this week?
-The market was able to price in the volatility in oil.
-Very interesting in what’s going on with transportation. What’s under the hood?
-What are we seeing in biotech? Medical devices?
-What is VIX trying to tell us?

Once again, we shot our own video this week. Thank you for taking the time to join us.

Please reach out with any questions/comments you may have about this week’s
update; we appreciate your calls, comments, and emails.

Watch in the player above or at this link: https://youtu.be/uv59KJMqi_Y

Have a safe weekend,

-Matt McAleer

Matt enjoys your feedback. You can reach him at:
-Link to Matt’s Email: Matthew.McAleer@Cumber.com
-Link to Matt’s Twitter: https://twitter.com/MattMcAleer4
-Link to Matt’s LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/matthew-c-mcaleer/
-Call Matt: (800) 257-7013

Other questions or comments? Email us at info@cumber.com or give us a call at (800) 257-7013.

Contact Matt or any one of our advisors by following this link: https://www.cumber.com/our-people/


Money Show Webinar - Bond Markets Through the Coronavirus with John R. Mousseau, CFA

Watch John’s April 23, 2020 presentation,  “Bond Markets Through the Coronavirus” here: https://www.cumber.com/bond-markets-through-the-coronavirus-john-mousseau/


Cumberland Advisors In The News

Fed Following WWII Model to Control Yield Curve

Bloomberg Radio – April 21, 2020

David Kotok, Chairman & Chief Investment Officer at Cumberland Advisors, discusses bond markets, the Fed and current investment outlook. Hosted by Lisa Abramowicz and Paul Sweeney.
Running time 07:36 – Play Episode: https://www.bloomberg.com/news/audio/2020-04-21/fed-following-wwii-model-to-control-yield-curve-kotok-radio


McConnell’s bankruptcy suggestion boomerangs

by Brian Tumulty – The Bond Buyer – April 24, 2020

Critics say Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell’s suggestion that Congress should allow states to file for bankruptcy would undermine efforts to quickly restart the economy and could damage the municipal market. John Mousseau, president and chief executive officer and director of fixed income at Cumberland Advisors, likened McConnell’s comment to the 2010 prediction by Meredith Whitney, a noted bank analyst, predicting hundreds of billions of dollars of municipal defaults were coming. They never materialized. She caused lots of market damage and outflows from municipal bond funds before sanity resumed and yields moved lower than they had been before she made her remarks, according to Mousseau. Senate Democratic Minority Leader Chuck Schumer said the backlash “has given even more momentum for state and local assistance,” making McConnell “increasingly isolated.” [Continued behind Paywall at The Bond Buyer…]


Lots of Muni Bonds Are Going to Be Just Fine

by Barry Ritholtz – April 13, 2020

(Bloomberg Opinion) — In an extraordinary attempt to help the economy in the midst of the coronavirus economic downturn, the Federal Reserve’s balance sheet has ballooned to more than $6 trillion.

How this has affected fixed-income pricing, yield, risk and even trading is the subject of this week’s Masters in Business interview with John R. Mousseau, president, chief executive officer and director of fixed income at Cumberland Advisors. Mousseau also is the co-author of the book “Adventures in Muniland: A Guide to Municipal Bond Investing in the Post-Crisis Era.”

He notes the current slump is very different from the 2008-09 financial crisis. That event was driven by credit deterioration and mortgage defaults. Things only came to a head only after defaults soared and bond markets developed liquidity problems after the collapse of Lehman Brothers. In the fixed-income world today, the coronavirus pandemic is characterized mostly by economic paralysis, but so far not mass defaults.

Full story at Yahoo Finance: https://finance.yahoo.com/news/lots-muni-bonds-going-just-153254865.html

More News About Cumberland Advisors Here: https://www.cumber.com/news


Cumberland Advisors Market Commentary

Cumberland Advisors Market Commentary offers insights and analysis on upcoming, important economic issues that potentially impact global financial markets. Our team shares their thinking on global economic developments, market news and other factors that often influence investment opportunities and strategies. Our readers appreciate its timeliness, depth of analysis, and quality of research.

To read current and past commentaries, visit www.cumber.com/category/market-commentary/

 


 

Cumberland Advisors Market Commentary – The UK Economy Falls Off the Cliff; Brexit Negotiations Resume

Author: William Witherell, Ph.D., Post Date: April 24, 2020

Market Commentary - Cumberland Advisors - The UK Economy Falls Off the Cliff; Brexit Negotiations ResumeThe economic situation in the UK has worsened dramatically in just the month and a half since our March 4th commentary on the subject. Last week, the Bank of England’s (BOE) governor, Andrew Bailey, told journalists that he did not disagree with the Office for Budget Responsibility’s forecast of a 35% decline in the UK’s [Continued…]

Cumberland Advisors Market Commentary – McConnell as Meredith Whitney

Author: John R. Mousseau, CFA, Post Date: April 23, 2020

Market Commentary - Cumberland Advisors -McConnell as Meredith Whitney (Mousseau)Senate Majority Leader McConnell yesterday was reported by Bloomberg News as saying that he “would certainly be in favor of allowing states to use the bankruptcy route” rather than giving them a Federal bailout. This reminded us of 2010 when Meredith Whitney, a noted bank analyst, predicted that there would be hundreds of billions of [Continued…]

Cumberland Advisors Market Commentary – About Masks – (Plus a personal note)

Author: David R. Kotok, Post Date: April 22, 2020

David Kotok - About MasksStraight Talk on Masks from Anthony Fauci – In a widely shared YouTube interview with Lilly Singh, Anthony Fauci, head of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases (NIAID) and a member of the White House coronavirus task force, explained the rationale for wearing face masks. He also explained why the CDC didn’t initially suggest [Continued…]

Cumberland Advisors Market Commentary – COVID – 19: Health Recovery and Economic Recovery Go Hand in Hand

Author: Peter A. Gold, Esquire & Jeffrey P. Gold, MD, Post Date: April 20, 2020

COVID - 19: Health Recovery and Economic Recovery Go Hand in Hand There is a lot of competing information in circulation relating to the current coronavirus pandemic and there is now a rush to offer opinion on how to best reopen economies and communities in a safe manner. It is our honor and privilege to introduce you to the following authors who also happen to be brothers. [Continued…]

Cumberland Advisors Market Commentary – Sturm und Drang & Beethoven’s Pastoral

Author: David R. Kotok, Post Date: April 19, 2020

Sturm und Drang & Beethoven’s PastoralSurprisingly, the German term Sturm und Drang originated with the American Revolution in 1776. The term first appeared as the title of a play by Friedrich Maximilian Klinger. The setting of the play is the unfolding American Revolution, in which, says Wikipedia, “the author gives violent expression to difficult emotions and extols individuality and subjectivity [Continued…]

 

Cumberland Advisors Market Commentary – Narrow Banks

Author: Robert Eisenbeis, Ph.D., Post Date: April 17, 2020

Narrow Banks

In a move largely overlooked due to the virus pandemic, on March 25, Judge Andrew L. Carter, Jr., of the United States District Court for the Southern District of New York dismissed a case filed by principals of The Narrow Bank (TNB) against the Federal Reserve Bank of New York (https://www.tnbusa.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/03/2020.03.25-TNB-Order.pdf). What is The Narrow [Continued…]

Cumberland Advisors Market Commentary – Fed Goes to War

Author: David R. Kotok, Post Date: April 16, 2020

Fed Goes to War

The April 12, 2020, posting on the Money, Banking and Financial Markets site, entitled “The Fed Goes to War: Part 3,” expands on the discussion of the extraordinary measures taken recently by the Federal Reserve. Let me offer a personal endorsement: I find the site consistently and exceptionally helpful. Much has already been written about about this expansion of the Fed’s arsenal and the list of new facilities. Essentially, the playbook for last decade’s Great Financial Crisis has been reopened, and a whole new set of tools has been added. [Continued…]

 

The CDC Foundation

Author: David R. Kotok, Post Date: March 23, 2020

CDC Foundation Dr Judy Monroe & David KotokDear readers. The CDC Foundation is not widely known. It’s a 501(c)3 that was created by Congress as a special charitable agency. The Foundation works right alongside the CDC and other national health agencies but is an independent charity. It has a special-purpose charter. Its purpose is to respond rapidly to threats like COVID-19 or [Continued…]


 


Links to other websites or electronic media controlled or offered by Third-Parties (non-affiliates of Cumberland Advisors) are provided only as a reference and courtesy to our users. Cumberland Advisors has no control over such websites, does not recommend or endorse any opinions, ideas, products, information, or content of such sites, and makes no warranties as to the accuracy, completeness, reliability or suitability of their content. Cumberland Advisors hereby disclaims liability for any information, materials, products or services posted or offered at any of the Third-Party websites. The Third-Party may have a privacy and/or security policy different from that of Cumberland Advisors. Therefore, please refer to the specific privacy and security policies of the Third-Party when accessing their websites.

Sign up for our FREE Cumberland Market Commentaries

Cumberland Advisors Market Commentaries offer insights and analysis on upcoming, important economic issues that potentially impact global financial markets. Our team shares their thinking on global economic developments, market news and other factors that often influence investment opportunities and strategies.




Cumberland Advisors Week in Review (Apr 13, 2020 – Apr 17, 2020)

The Cumberland Advisors Week in Review is a recap of news, commentary, and opinion from our team.

Week In Review

These are not revised assessments, and circumstances may have changed in the market from the time of original publication. We also include older commentaries that our editors have determined may be of interest to our audience. Your feedback is always welcome.

CUMBERLAND ADVISORS’ WEEKLY RECAP

As part of Cumberland Advisors’ continuous effort to maintain strong customer relationships, we offer this week’s short video discussing current market conditions and how we are positioning portfolios.

Thank you for joining Cumberland Advisors for this end-of-week update on market conditions, bonds & equities with me, Matt McAleer, and John Mousseau.

David Kotok also shot a video to accompany his commentary this week which you can see below.

I’m first up with my take on markets this week. I made it into the office with John Mousseau today though we sit about 50ft apart. We remain cautious and shoot our videos separately.

Next, John tackles the bond market. We’re still getting great feedback about the Federal Reserve’s unprecedented action last week. If you haven’t read it, Cumberland Advisors preceded their move with a public commentary and call to action entitled, “A Proposal for the Coronavirus Anticipation Note (CAN)” on April 01, 2020. Let us know what you think: https://www.cumber.com/cumberland-advisors-market-commentary-a-proposal-for-the-coronavirus-anticipation-note-can/

We all shot our own video this week and we appreciate you taking the time to join us.

Please reach out with any questions/comments you may have about this update, we always appreciate your calls, comments, and emails.

Watch in the player above or at this link: https://youtu.be/dkV9PjXfR6U

Have a safe weekend and thank you for joining us at Cumberland Advisors.

-Matt McAleer

Matt enjoys your feedback. You can reach him at:
-Link to Matt’s Email: Matthew.McAleer@Cumber.com
-Link to Matt’s Twitter: https://twitter.com/MattMcAleer4
-Link to Matt’s LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/matthew-c-mcaleer/
-Call Matt: (800) 257-7013

Other questions or comments? Email us at info@cumber.com or give us a call at (800) 257-7013.

Contact Matt or any one of our advisors by following this link: https://www.cumber.com/our-people/

 


Cumberland Advisors In The News

Lots of Muni Bonds Are Going to Be Just Fine

by Barry Ritholtz – April 13, 2020

(Bloomberg Opinion) — In an extraordinary attempt to help the economy in the midst of the coronavirus economic downturn, the Federal Reserve’s balance sheet has ballooned to more than $6 trillion.

How this has affected fixed-income pricing, yield, risk and even trading is the subject of this week’s Masters in Business interview with John R. Mousseau, president, chief executive officer and director of fixed income at Cumberland Advisors. Mousseau also is the co-author of the book “Adventures in Muniland: A Guide to Municipal Bond Investing in the Post-Crisis Era.”

He notes the current slump is very different from the 2008-09 financial crisis. That event was driven by credit deterioration and mortgage defaults. Things only came to a head only after defaults soared and bond markets developed liquidity problems after the collapse of Lehman Brothers. In the fixed-income world today, the coronavirus pandemic is characterized mostly by economic paralysis, but so far not mass defaults.

Full story at Yahoo Finance: https://finance.yahoo.com/news/lots-muni-bonds-going-just-153254865.html

Court rules Puerto Rico residents eligible for SSI program

by Robert Slavin – April 14, 2020

A federal appeals court has upheld a decision that people in Puerto Rico are eligible for the Supplemental Security Income program.

As many as 700,000 people may be impacted by Friday’s ruling from the U.S. Court of Appeals for the First Circuit. The Social Security Administration runs SSI, which provides money to low-income people who are disabled, blind, or over 65. It also provides money to families with disabled children.
The appeals court ruling may impact as many as 700,000 people in Puerto Rico.Bloomberg News

Puerto Rico currently has a program jointly funded with the federal government that provides funds to these groups.

According to Jenniffer González-Colon, Puerto Rico’s non-voting representative in Congress, the average SSI beneficiary receives $553 monthly, whereas the average beneficiary under the Puerto Rico program receives $77 monthly. The maximum income permitted for an individual to qualify for SSI is $750 per month, compared to a maximum of $65 per month for the Puerto Rico program.

Cumberland Advisors Portfolio Manager Shaun Burgess said that he expected SSI to have more impact by allowing the local government to save money on the existing program than as a stimulus on the local economy. Cumberland owns insured Puerto Rico bonds.

Read the full story at The Bond Buyer: https://www.bondbuyer.com/news/court-rules-puerto-rico-residents-eligible-for-ssi-program

More News About Cumberland Advisors Here: https://www.cumber.com/news


Cumberland Advisors Market Commentary

Cumberland Advisors Market Commentary offers insights and analysis on upcoming, important economic issues that potentially impact global financial markets. Our team shares their thinking on global economic developments, market news and other factors that often influence investment opportunities and strategies. Our readers appreciate its timeliness, depth of analysis, and quality of research.

To read current and past commentaries, visit www.cumber.com/category/market-commentary/

 


Cumberland Advisors Market Commentary – Narrow Banks

Author: Robert Eisenbeis, Ph.D., Post Date: April 17, 2020

Narrow Banks

In a move largely overlooked due to the virus pandemic, on March 25, Judge Andrew L. Carter, Jr., of the United States District Court for the Southern District of New York dismissed a case filed by principals of The Narrow Bank (TNB) against the Federal Reserve Bank of New York (https://www.tnbusa.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/03/2020.03.25-TNB-Order.pdf). What is The Narrow [Continued…]

Cumberland Advisors Market Commentary – Fed Goes to War

Author: David R. Kotok, Post Date: April 16, 2020

Fed Goes to War

The April 12, 2020, posting on the Money, Banking and Financial Markets site, entitled “The Fed Goes to War: Part 3,” expands on the discussion of the extraordinary measures taken recently by the Federal Reserve. Let me offer a personal endorsement: I find the site consistently and exceptionally helpful. Much has already been written about about this expansion of the Fed’s arsenal and the list of new facilities. Essentially, the playbook for last decade’s Great Financial Crisis has been reopened, and a whole new set of tools has been added. [Continued…]

Cumberland Advisors Market Commentary – A Very British Affair — Living with COVID-19 in the UK

Author: Kevin Humphreys, Post Date: April 15, 2020

A Very British Affair — Living with COVID-19 in the UK

Kevin Humphreys is a long-time commentary subscriber from the other side of the pond. He is a London-based independent financial market analyst and commentator with 23 years of trading and management in tier 1 UK banks followed by another 10 years in broking, management and market analysis roles, specializing in Eurozone and UK markets. Kevin [Continued…]

Cumberland Advisors Market Commentary – Governors and the States

Author: David R. Kotok, Post Date: April 13, 2020

Market Commentary - Cumberland Advisors - Governors and the States“Governor Gavin Newsom said that he would use the bulk purchasing power of California ‘as a nation-state’ to acquire the hospital supplies that the federal government has failed to provide. If all goes according to plan, Newsom said, California might even ‘export some of those supplies to states in need.’ “‘Nation-state.’ ‘Export.’ “Newsom is accomplishing [Continued…]

Cumberland Advisors Commentary – The Biblical Rembrandt

Author: David R. Kotok, Post Date: April 12, 2020

Rembrandt - Christ Before Pilate

In Amsterdam in 1632 , a talented young artist, Rembrandt Harmenszoon van Rijn, was commissioned to produce five etchings of biblical scenes. Rembrandt was born in 1606 and this was his breakthrough engagement, at age 26. His patron was Stadtholder Frederik Hendrik, Prince of Orange, the Dutch sovereign. Rembrandt was inspired by Rubens’s altarpiece in [Continued…]

Cumberland Advisors Market Commentary – Repos Revisited

Author: Robert Eisenbeis, Ph.D., Post Date: April 9, 2020

Market Commentary - Cumberland Advisors - Repos RevisitedOn March 12, a Wall Street Journal headline announced, “Fed to Inject $1.5 Trillion in Bid to Prevent ‘Unusual Disruptions’ in Markets” (https://www.wsj.com/articles/fed-to-inject-1-5-trillion-in-bid-to-prevent-unusual-disruptions-in-markets-11584033537). The inference was that the Fed was embarking upon a massive injection of funds into short-term money markets. That is, the first three offerings of $500 billion each were but the first [Continued…]

Cumberland Advisors Guest Commentary – Timely Data Matters

Author: Samuel E. Rines, Post Date: April 8, 2020

Guest Commentary - Timely Data MattersMy friend and Camp K veteran, Sam Rines ( Chief Economist at Avalon Investment and Advisory), has an excellent discussion on high frequency data and how critical it is in the current environment. He is kind enough to give us permission to share the entire piece entitled, “Timely Data Matters,” with our readers. Thank you, [Continued…]

Cumberland Advisors Market Commentary – WW2 versus WWC: The Doolittle Moment

Author: David R. Kotok, Post Date: April 7, 2020

WW2 versus WWC - The Doolittle Moment 1280x720

We’re going to look at World War 2 (WW2) versus the World War COVID-19 (WWC) events now unfolding and see what we can glean about markets, economies, interest rates, inflation rates, and the overall outlook. Let’s start with the stock market. We expect this will be a multi-part series. Below is a chart that shows [Continued…]

The War in Europe

Author: William Witherell, Ph.D., Post Date: April 3, 2020

The War in EuropeDuring the first quarter of 2020, Europe once again found itself to be in the center of a global war, this time against an invisible, very deadly enemy, the virus SARS-CoV-2, which causes COVID-19. At the end of the quarter, on March 31, the 19 countries of the Eurozone had 359,296 confirmed cases of the [Continued…]

The CDC Foundation

Author: David R. Kotok, Post Date: March 23, 2020

CDC Foundation Dr Judy Monroe & David KotokDear readers. The CDC Foundation is not widely known. It’s a 501(c)3 that was created by Congress as a special charitable agency. The Foundation works right alongside the CDC and other national health agencies but is an independent charity. It has a special-purpose charter. Its purpose is to respond rapidly to threats like COVID-19 or [Continued…]


John Mousseau will be part of a MoneyShow presentation next week (Apr 23, 2020 1:00 PM – 7:30 PM EDT) and his talk will be Bond Markets Through the Coronavirus. He’ll cover analysis of treasury, taxable, and municipal markets, federal monetary policy, and administration of fiscal policy. More info, talks by other speakers, and registration can be found here: Resetting Your Portfolio in a Changing World


Links to other websites or electronic media controlled or offered by Third-Parties (non-affiliates of Cumberland Advisors) are provided only as a reference and courtesy to our users. Cumberland Advisors has no control over such websites, does not recommend or endorse any opinions, ideas, products, information, or content of such sites, and makes no warranties as to the accuracy, completeness, reliability or suitability of their content. Cumberland Advisors hereby disclaims liability for any information, materials, products or services posted or offered at any of the Third-Party websites. The Third-Party may have a privacy and/or security policy different from that of Cumberland Advisors. Therefore, please refer to the specific privacy and security policies of the Third-Party when accessing their websites.

Sign up for our FREE Cumberland Market Commentaries

Cumberland Advisors Market Commentaries offer insights and analysis on upcoming, important economic issues that potentially impact global financial markets. Our team shares their thinking on global economic developments, market news and other factors that often influence investment opportunities and strategies.




Cumberland Advisors Week in Review (Mar 30, 2020 – Apr 03, 2020)

The Cumberland Advisors Week in Review is a recap of news, commentary, and opinion from our team.

Week In Review

These are not revised assessments, and circumstances may have changed in the market from the time of original publication. We also include older commentaries that our editors have determined may be of interest to our audience. Your feedback is always welcome.

CUMBERLAND ADVISORS’ WEEKLY RECAP

As part of Cumberland Advisors’ continuous effort to maintain strong customer relationships, we offer this week’s short video discussing current market conditions and how we are positioning portfolios.

Thank you for joining Cumberland Advisors for this end-of-week update on market conditions, bonds & equities with Matt McAleer and John Mousseau.

We’re in full social distancing mode this week, doing our part to combat COVID-19/Coronavirus.

First up is Matt McAleer with his thoughts on equities.

Next up is John Mousseau and his analysis of the fixed income / bond market.

Both gentlemen shot their own video this week and we expect to build upon this experience and get even better at producing our updates in a distributed fashion for you. Thanks for joining us.

Please reach out to Matt or John with any questions/comments you may have about this video, we always appreciate your calls, comments, and emails.

Watch this week’s update in the player above or at this link: https://youtu.be/7EabFgH8BYw

Have a safe weekend and thank you for joining us at Cumberland Advisors.

-Matt McAleer

Matt enjoys your feedback. You can reach him at:
-Link to Matt’s Email: Matthew.McAleer@Cumber.com
-Link to Matt’s Twitter: https://twitter.com/MattMcAleer4
-Link to Matt’s LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/matthew-c-mcaleer/
-Call Matt: (800) 257-7013

Other questions or comments? Email us at info@cumber.com or give us a call at (800) 257-7013.

Contact Matt or any one of our advisors by following this link: https://www.cumber.com/our-people/

 


Cumberland Advisors In The News

Cumberland proposes new cash-flow anticipation note to help issuers fight coronavirus

State and local governments are facing a cash-flow crunch under the present emergency conditions, which limit or eliminate many reveue streams. Cumberland argues that this type of short-term security would help alleviate the problem and let municipalities recover more quickly once the danger had passed and things return to normal.

Full story at The Bond Buyer (paywall): https://www.bondbuyer.com/news/cumberland-proposes-new-cash-flow-anticipation-note-to-help-issuers-fight-coronavirus

More News About Cumberland Advisors Here: https://www.cumber.com/news


Cumberland Advisors Market Commentary

Cumberland Advisors Market Commentary offers insights and analysis on upcoming, important economic issues that potentially impact global financial markets. Our team shares their thinking on global economic developments, market news and other factors that often influence investment opportunities and strategies. Our readers appreciate its timeliness, depth of analysis, and quality of research.

To read current and past commentaries, visit www.cumber.com/category/market-commentary/


The War in Europe

Author: William Witherell, Ph.D., Post Date: April 3, 2020

The War in Europe During the first quarter of 2020, Europe once again found itself to be in the center of a global war, this time against an invisible, very deadly enemy, the virus SARS-CoV-2, which causes COVID-19. At the end of the quarter, on March 31, the 19 countries of the Eurozone had 359,296 confirmed cases of the [Continued…]

China’s Healthcare & Economy in the Aftermath of COVID-19

Author: David R. Kotok, Post Date: April 2, 2020

China’s Healthcare & Economy in the Aftermath of COVID-19 Dear Readers, While the United States and much of the world outside of Asia is still trying to “flatten the curve” in response to the coronavirus pandemic, China is posturing itself for a quick comeback. Can we believe their numbers and agree that their virus-response methodology was effective? USA Today along with Andy Mok, a [Continued…]

A Proposal for the Coronavirus Anticipation Note (CAN)

Author: David R. Kotok & John R. Mousseau, Post Date: April 1, 2020

A Proposal for the Corona Anticipation Note (CAN) John Mousseau and I have combined our professional experience with our views of the municipal finance market. With the help of our Cumberland staff, we want to offer a format for immediate assistance designed to address urgent state and local government financing problems. This proposal is only a framework. There are many skilled professionals who [Continued…]

One Less Worry?

Author: Robert Eisenbeis, Ph.D., Post Date: March 31, 2020

Cumberland Advisors Market Commentary - One Less Worry (Eisenbeis) It is tempting to focus on the here and now, especially when we are worrying about the economic fallout from the coronavirus pandemic and its impact on the nation. We are withdrawing from social contact and are concerned about all sources of risks. We have seen reports of people sanitizing cash as one way of [Continued…]

Cumberland Advisors Guest Commentary – Maybe the World is not Ending!

Author: Michael Drury, Post Date: March 30, 2020

Michael-Drury-McVean-Trading-Header Dear Readers: Mike Drury is past chair of the Global Interdependence Center, a skilled economist and a personal friend. He is not in the “world is coming to the end” camp. He has given me permission to run his entire weekend piece. Enjoy! -David Kotok Will second quarter NOMINAL GDP be positive? (Yes, that is [Continued…]

The Ringling Bridge

Author: David R. Kotok, Post Date: March 29, 2020

Dear Readers, In Sarasota, when twilight comes to Sarasota Bay, the lighting under the Ringling Bridge is usually rotating and alternating colors. The light used to be too bright, and the glare invaded the night sky. But now, and after enough complaints from locals, the powers that decide these things adopted a less glaring and [Continued…]

Why States Are Not Going to Default from the Coronavirus Fallout

Author: Patricia Healy, CFA, Post Date: March 27, 2020

Market Commentary - Cumberland Advisors - Why States Are Not Going to Default from the Coronavirus Fallout In our opinion this is a short-term shock, although it will likely change some behaviors for the long term that will need to be monitored. The initial concern is liquidity, not just in the bond market but also at the state level, where tax payment dates have been extended and economically sensitive revenues such as [Continued…]

 

The Muni Meltdown Timeline (and the Opportunity It Presents)

Author: John R. Mousseau, CFA, Post Date: March 26, 2020 CA-Market-Commentary-The Muni Meltdown Timeline (and the Opportunity It Presents) The Municipal Bond Market has suffered one of the most dramatic back-offs it has ever seen; and it was accomplished in about nine business days. The rise in yields has been dramatic and fierce and had lots of elements to it. This is a quick synopsis of some of the muni meltdown. As of Monday [Continued…]

The CDC Foundation

Author: David R. Kotok, Post Date: March 23, 2020

CDC Foundation Dr Judy Monroe & David Kotok Dear readers. The CDC Foundation is not widely known. It’s a 501(c)3 that was created by Congress as a special charitable agency. The Foundation works right alongside the CDC and other national health agencies but is an independent charity. It has a special-purpose charter. Its purpose is to respond rapidly to threats like COVID-19 or [Continued…]

 

Cumberland Advisors Guest Commentary – Is There A COVID-19 Signal in Climate Data & Is It Potential Good News for Florida?

Author: Bob Bunting, Post Date: March 20, 2020

Is There A COVID-19 Signal in Climate Data & Is It Potential Good News for Florida - Bunting Our colleague Bob Bunting, meteorologist, professor, and former executive at both the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) and the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR), is CEO of the Climate Adaptation Center (CAC) here in Sarasota, Florida. Bob has contributed several guest commentaries to Cumberland in recent years, including “It’s Hot and Getting Hotter [Continued…]


Cumberland Advisors - Camp Kotok China Panel DiscussionNo lectern, no PowerPoint. The China Panel is public and in the public domain. The press and public are free to use the video footage and quote the speakers across social media and elsewhere.

The August 2019 China panel held at Camp Kotok packed an extraordinary amount of valuable information into a half hour and is well worth the time you’ll spend to view it: https://youtu.be/Sff0AGPrIJQ

This Camp Kotok talk session features panelists Michael Drury (Chief Economist for McVean Trading & Investments, LLC.), Jonathan D. T. Ward (Founder of Atlas Organization), & Leland Miller (CEO China Beige Book), all offering their take on U.S.-China relations. The panel and audience Q&A are guided by moderator, Lisa McIntire Shaw. <More…>


Links to other websites or electronic media controlled or offered by Third-Parties (non-affiliates of Cumberland Advisors) are provided only as a reference and courtesy to our users. Cumberland Advisors has no control over such websites, does not recommend or endorse any opinions, ideas, products, information, or content of such sites, and makes no warranties as to the accuracy, completeness, reliability or suitability of their content. Cumberland Advisors hereby disclaims liability for any information, materials, products or services posted or offered at any of the Third-Party websites. The Third-Party may have a privacy and/or security policy different from that of Cumberland Advisors. Therefore, please refer to the specific privacy and security policies of the Third-Party when accessing their websites.

Sign up for our FREE Cumberland Market Commentaries

Cumberland Advisors Market Commentaries offer insights and analysis on upcoming, important economic issues that potentially impact global financial markets. Our team shares their thinking on global economic developments, market news and other factors that often influence investment opportunities and strategies.




Cumberland Advisors Week in Review (Mar 23, 2020 – Mar 27, 2020)

The Cumberland Advisors Week in Review is a recap of news, commentary, and opinion from our team.

Week In Review

These are not revised assessments, and circumstances may have changed in the market from the time of original publication. We also include older commentaries that our editors have determined may be of interest to our audience. Your feedback is always welcome.

CUMBERLAND ADVISORS’ WEEKLY RECAP

As part of Cumberland Advisors’ continuous effort to maintain strong customer relationships, we offer this week’s short video discussing current market conditions and how we are positioning portfolios.

 

Thank you for joining Cumberland Advisors for this end-of-week update on market conditions, bonds & equities with Matt McAleer and John Mousseau.
First up: Matt McAleer, Cumberland Advisors’ Director of Equity Strategies. I’ll give you a view of what happened in the stock market this week and what I think might be on the horizon. Keep in mind, there are no fixed scripts for the market.
Next up is John Mousseau, Cumberland Advisors’ CEO & Director of Fixed Income. Quite a week in the bond market. John also wrote a commentary this week, titled, “The Muni Meltdown Timeline (and the Opportunity It Presents).” If you haven’t read it already, here’s the link: https://www.cumber.com/cumberland-advisors-market-commentary-the-muni-meltdown-timeline-and-the-opportunity-it-presents/
Please reach out to me (or John) with any questions/comments you may have about this video, I always appreciate your calls, comments, and emails.

 

Watch this week’s update in the player above or at this link: https://youtu.be/MzdtUytWcos

Thank you for joining us at Cumberland Advisors. Be safe.

-Matt McAleer

Matt enjoys your feedback. You can reach him at:
-Link to Matt’s Email: Matthew.McAleer@Cumber.com
-Link to Matt’s Twitter: https://twitter.com/MattMcAleer4
-Link to Matt’s LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/matthew-c-mcaleer/
-Call Matt: (800) 257-7013

Other questions or comments? Email us at info@cumber.com or give us a call at (800) 257-7013.

Contact Matt or any one of our advisors by following this link: https://www.cumber.com/our-people/

 



Cumberland Advisors Market Commentary

Cumberland Advisors Market Commentary offers insights and analysis on upcoming, important economic issues that potentially impact global financial markets. Our team shares their thinking on global economic developments, market news and other factors that often influence investment opportunities and strategies. Our readers appreciate its timeliness, depth of analysis, and quality of research.

To read current and past commentaries, visit www.cumber.com/category/market-commentary/


Fed Outstanding Repo Transactions March 2020

Author: Robert Eisenbeis, Ph.D., Post Date: March 27, 2020

Cumberland Advisors' Robert "Bob" Eisenbeis, Ph.D. Fed Outstanding Repo Transactions March 3 – March 27 Today, not only was the daily repo proposal very small, but also there were no proposals for the potential $500 Billion 84 day repos. (Chart Link)

Cumberland Advisors Market Commentary – The CDC Foundation

Author: David R. Kotok, Post Date: March 23, 2020

CDC Foundation Dr Judy Monroe & David Kotok Dear readers. The CDC Foundation is not widely known. It’s a 501(c)3 that was created by Congress as a special charitable agency. The Foundation works right alongside the CDC and other national health agencies but is an independent charity. It has a special-purpose charter. Its purpose is to respond rapidly to threats like COVID-19 or [Continued…]

Cumberland Advisors Market Commentary – International Stock Markets, First Quarter, 2020

Author: William Witherell, Ph.D., Post Date: March 23, 2020

Market Commentary - Cumberland Advisors - 2020 Q1 Strategy ReviewsInternational stock markets, like the US market, started the year on an optimistic note. The global slump in manufacturing appeared to be bottoming, and trade relations were easing. The first quarter is ending, however, with global equities experiencing dramatic losses and volatility surging across all market classes. As this is written (March 20), stocks in [Continued…]

Cumberland Advisors Guest Commentary – Is There A COVID-19 Signal in Climate Data & Is It Potential Good News for Florida?

Author: Bob Bunting, Post Date: March 20, 2020

Is There A COVID-19 Signal in Climate Data & Is It Potential Good News for Florida - Bunting Our colleague Bob Bunting, meteorologist, professor, and former executive at both the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) and the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR), is CEO of the Climate Adaptation Center (CAC) here in Sarasota, Florida. Bob has contributed several guest commentaries to Cumberland in recent years, including “It’s Hot and Getting Hotter [Continued…]


Cumberland Advisors - Camp Kotok China Panel DiscussionNo lectern, no PowerPoint. The China Panel is public and in the public domain. The press and public are free to use the video footage and quote the speakers across social media and elsewhere.

The August 2019 China panel held at Camp Kotok packed an extraordinary amount of valuable information into a half hour and is well worth the time you’ll spend to view it: https://youtu.be/Sff0AGPrIJQ

This Camp Kotok talk session features panelists Michael Drury (Chief Economist for McVean Trading & Investments, LLC.), Jonathan D. T. Ward (Founder of Atlas Organization), & Leland Miller (CEO China Beige Book), all offering their take on U.S.-China relations. The panel and audience Q&A are guided by moderator, Lisa McIntire Shaw. <More…>


Links to other websites or electronic media controlled or offered by Third-Parties (non-affiliates of Cumberland Advisors) are provided only as a reference and courtesy to our users. Cumberland Advisors has no control over such websites, does not recommend or endorse any opinions, ideas, products, information, or content of such sites, and makes no warranties as to the accuracy, completeness, reliability or suitability of their content. Cumberland Advisors hereby disclaims liability for any information, materials, products or services posted or offered at any of the Third-Party websites. The Third-Party may have a privacy and/or security policy different from that of Cumberland Advisors. Therefore, please refer to the specific privacy and security policies of the Third-Party when accessing their websites.

Sign up for our FREE Cumberland Market Commentaries

Cumberland Advisors Market Commentaries offer insights and analysis on upcoming, important economic issues that potentially impact global financial markets. Our team shares their thinking on global economic developments, market news and other factors that often influence investment opportunities and strategies.




Cumberland Advisors Week in Review (Mar 16, 2020 – Mar 20, 2020)

The Cumberland Advisors Week in Review is a recap of news, commentary, and opinion from our team.

Week In Review

These are not revised assessments, and circumstances may have changed in the market from the time of original publication. We also include older commentaries that our editors have determined may be of interest to our audience. Your feedback is always welcome.

CUMBERLAND ADVISORS’ WEEKLY RECAP

As part of Cumberland Advisors’ continuous effort to maintain strong customer relationships, we offer this week’s short video discussing current market conditions and how we are positioning portfolios.

 

This week we have John Mousseau and Matt McAleer on camera sharing their thoughts with you.

First up is Matt McAleer, Cumberland Advisors’ Director of Equity Strategies. He’ll give you his view of what happened in the stock market this week (the rush for cash!). He also tells you how successful his trades have been these past months, what’s gone wrong and what he’s got right.

Next up is John Mousseau, Cumberland Advisors’ CEO & Director of Fixed Income. He tells us the latest happenings in the bond market, what’s higher, what’s lower, and our outlook for the future.

Thank you for joining us. Please reach out to me (or John) with any questions/comments you may have about this video, I always appreciate your calls, comments, and emails.

Watch this week’s update in the player above or at this link: https://youtu.be/j6GC3ZbiqPU

Thank you for joining us at Cumberland Advisors. Be safe.

-Matt McAleer

Matt enjoys your feedback. You can reach him at:
-Link to Matt’s Email: Matthew.McAleer@Cumber.com
-Link to Matt’s Twitter: https://twitter.com/MattMcAleer4
-Link to Matt’s LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/matthew-c-mcaleer/
-Call Matt: (800) 257-7013

Other questions or comments? Email us at info@cumber.com or give us a call at (800) 257-7013.

Contact Matt or any one of our advisors by following this link: https://www.cumber.com/our-people/


Links to other websites or electronic media controlled or offered by Third-Parties (non-affiliates of Cumberland Advisors) are provided only as a reference and courtesy to our users. Cumberland Advisors has no control over such websites, does not recommend or endorse any opinions, ideas, products, information, or content of such sites, and makes no warranties as to the accuracy, completeness, reliability or suitability of their content. Cumberland Advisors hereby disclaims liability for any information, materials, products or services posted or offered at any of the Third-Party websites. The Third-Party may have a privacy and/or security policy different from that of Cumberland Advisors. Therefore, please refer to the specific privacy and security policies of the Third-Party when accessing their websites.

Sign up for our FREE Cumberland Market Commentaries

Cumberland Advisors Market Commentaries offer insights and analysis on upcoming, important economic issues that potentially impact global financial markets. Our team shares their thinking on global economic developments, market news and other factors that often influence investment opportunities and strategies.




Cumberland Advisors Midweek Update on Market Conditions, Bonds & Equities with McAleer & Mousseau

Thank you for joining Cumberland Advisors for this midweek update on market conditions, bonds & equities with Matt McAleer and John Mousseau.

Cumberland-Advisors-Market-Update

First up is John Mousseau, Cumberland Advisors’ CEO & Director of Fixed Income. He tells us what he’s seeing in the bond market, credit, what’s happening with treasuries, and how Cumberland Advisors is responding.

Direct link to video: https://youtu.be/hYYffU5fz7w

“We’ve seen great upheaval in the bond market. It started over a week ago when you saw treasury bond prices spiking because of Saudi’s buying of oil and buying Treasury Bonds. That in turn affected all of the bond dealers who no longer could hedge with Treasury Bonds because they would have lost their shirt. And so they withdrew from bidding on bonds. Things like corporates, and munis, and mortgages, etc.

“So we started to see yields rise on those bonds. The stock market, which we’ve seen the carnage, and Matt will talk about. That caused people to sell almost everything that wasn’t a Treasury. Munis, bond funds, as we see REITs, commodities, etc., were all selling because people wanted cash. And by the end of the week and continuing, now they were also selling Treasury bonds. What are we doing about it? What we’re doing about it is we’re looking at this opportunistically. We’re very fairly short duration going into this mess, and the unravelling that we have seen has shown us some extraordinary bond values out there that we haven’t seen in well over a year. So, whereas a week ago you were looking at almost all municipal bonds with one or two percent type yields, it has moved up 150-200 basis points in some cases where we’re able to buy 3% yields. In some cases, close to 4% yields on AA, AA+ type paper in munis. That really has nothing to do with credit. You need to be careful on credit. The things that we worry about are things that you might have looked for as an essential service bond before, but through the prism of the virus you don’t think of the essentiality of that service any more. Like a bond backed by subway fares in New York. Or an airport. Things of that nature. We really don’t want to own those. But we want to own very high grade bonds that have really been thrown under the bus by the selling that’s gone on. So what we’re trying to do is pick up yield that we haven’t seen in over a year and try to extend durations to lock that in and try to take advantage of the fear that we’ve seen out there.

“We’ve gone through these cycles before. We haven’t seen it in this fast a timeframe. And clearly what’s going on with the virus and its effects on all markets has created some of this gapping effect that’s gone on there. We’re encouraging people that have had money on the sidelines for bonds that now is a very propitious time to start putting some of that to work. It’s not only just in the long end, everywhere it’s cheap. So you think about a long Treasury bond at a 175 and you’re buying long municipal bonds at 3 1/2, in some cases close to 4; I don’t need to do those yield ratios for you. So what we think is, over time that gap narrows and we think the total return on munis can be quite good from these levels when things settle down. We know there’s a lot of cross currents out there. There’s going to be a lot of fiscal spending coming. We know, and Matt will talk about it, this Equity market will find a floor here at some point. Right now it’s fear and panic driving everything. But I want you to know, that as a Total Return Bond Manager, we are now moving to take advantage of what we see as an extremely oversold situation. Thanks a lot,” John Mousseau.

Matt McAleer, Cumberland Advisors’ Director of Equity Strategies, delivers his view of what’s happening in the stock market, how he’s positioning things, along with an invitation for clients to contact Cumberland Advisors with any questions or comments.

We appreciate you taking the time to join us.

View the video in the player above or via this direct link: https://youtu.be/hYYffU5fz7w


Links to other websites or electronic media controlled or offered by Third-Parties (non-affiliates of Cumberland Advisors) are provided only as a reference and courtesy to our users. Cumberland Advisors has no control over such websites, does not recommend or endorse any opinions, ideas, products, information, or content of such sites, and makes no warranties as to the accuracy, completeness, reliability or suitability of their content. Cumberland Advisors hereby disclaims liability for any information, materials, products or services posted or offered at any of the Third-Party websites. The Third-Party may have a privacy and/or security policy different from that of Cumberland Advisors. Therefore, please refer to the specific privacy and security policies of the Third-Party when accessing their websites.

Sign up for our FREE Cumberland Market Commentaries

Cumberland Advisors Market Commentaries offer insights and analysis on upcoming, important economic issues that potentially impact global financial markets. Our team shares their thinking on global economic developments, market news and other factors that often influence investment opportunities and strategies.




Cumberland Advisors Week in Review (Mar 09, 2020 – Mar 13, 2020)

The Cumberland Advisors Week in Review is a recap of news, commentary, and opinion from our team.

Week In Review

These are not revised assessments, and circumstances may have changed in the market from the time of original publication. We also include older commentaries that our editors have determined may be of interest to our audience. Your feedback is always welcome.

CUMBERLAND ADVISORS’ WEEKLY RECAP

As part of Cumberland Advisors’ continuous effort to maintain strong customer relationships, we offer this week’s short video discussing current market conditions and how we are positioning portfolios.

 

This week we have John Mousseau and Matt McAleer on camera sharing their thoughts with you.

John talks about:
-What we saw today and earlier in week
-Events earlier in week were people trying to run away from risk
-Very tough week for bonds in general
-Today, Treasurys continued to back off – Good in our opinion. Do we see a trend? No. But it’s a first step to a reversion to the mean.
-Things that you thought were essential services may not be that essential in a new world: things like a subway or an airport. Eventually, they will be.
-We try to drill down and make sure that credit is better than it was before and try to improve credit; it’s going to take a while to come back.

Matt talks about:
-Fear in the market
-The Equity Only Put/Call Ratio spiked to 128. Matt explains and brings some history to bear.
-What might lead to a relief rally?
-We have three words we used in our research meeting and calls on Monday: Credit, credit, credit!
-On the Equity side, what can we do to take advantage of some of this volatility? We’re going to let the volatility come to us.
-Don’t chase equities. Bid, let them hit you. Be comfortable months out owning that security.
-Dislocation and nibbling on the way down
-Pin your top 20 best movers list where you can see it. Review them. Do some work on them. You’ll see we own some of those names.
-Matt mentions Microsoft, Apple, Adobe Systems.
-The market will dictate to us if we’re entering a trading market vs a buy and hold one. Don’t try to outguess it.

Please reach out to me (or John) with any questions/comments you may have about this video, I always appreciate your calls, comments, and emails.

Watch this week’s update in the player above or at this link: https://youtu.be/XIJaXAY2mpY

Did you miss the mid-week update? It’s up on YouTube here: https://youtu.be/eTqXYjNdfNE

Lastly, I participated in an interview with Bloomberg on Thursday and you can listen to that here if desired:
Bloomberg Chief Washington Correspondent Kevin Cirilli talked to Matthew McAleer about the market sell-off.
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/audio/2020-03-12/sound-on-market-drop-corona-virus-response-podcast

Have a great weekend and thank you for joining us at Cumberland Advisors.

-Matt McAleer

PS: Our energy conference, called “An Outlook on Energy Policy” has been postponed due to coronavirus worries. We thank you for your interest but the travel restrictions and cautious direction we and other firms have put in place results in this prudent delay. We hope to reschedule later this year and we’ll share a new date when it’s been decided.

Matt enjoys your feedback. You can reach him at:
-Link to Matt’s Email: Matthew.McAleer@Cumber.com
-Link to Matt’s Twitter: https://twitter.com/MattMcAleer4
-Link to Matt’s LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/matthew-c-mcaleer/
-Call Matt: (800) 257-7013

Other questions or comments? Email us at info@cumber.com or give us a call at (800) 257-7013.

 

Contact Matt or any one of our advisors by following this link: https://www.cumber.com/our-people/


Bloomberg Radio

 

March 12, 2020 – Matthew McAleer talks markets on Bloomberg Radio (6 min.) – Matt discusses recession fears, panic in the market, liquidity, does he expect a 3-6 month disruption or something longer, and more.

Cumberland Advisors Market Commentary – Airlines and COVID19

Author: David R. Kotok, Post Date: March 13, 2020

Market Commentary - Cumberland Advisors - Airlines and COVID19 Cumberland portfolios hold no airline stocks, no transportation stocks, no hotel, leisure or hospitality stocks. Sector ETFs were sold. Some of these stocks are part of the broad based ETFs which are tied to an index basket. Now let’s look at airlines. Since the advent of widespread air travel following World War II, the world [Continued…]


Cumberland Advisors Special Update on Market Conditions, Bonds & Equities

Author: Matthew McAleer, Post Date: March 11, 2020

Cumberland-Advisors-Matt-McAleer-Wednesday-Update-YouTube Dear Clients & Friends, We bring you this midweek update video discussing current market conditions and how we are positioning portfolios. John offers his insights into how the bond market is behaving and Matt weighs in on what’s happening in the equities market. There is a lot of volatility at work. Please reach out [Continued…]

Cumberland Advisors Market Commentary – Saudi-Russia Oil War

Author: David R. Kotok, Post Date: March 10, 2020

Market Commentary - Cumberland Advisors - Saudi-Russia Oil War A quick note about oil. The Saudi-Russia price war means OPEC disarray and a lower oil price for the US. The Energy Information Administration (EIA) reports: “In 2019, about 142.23 billion gallons (or about 3.39 billion barrels) of finished motor gasoline were consumed in the United States, an average of about 389.68 million gallons [Continued…]

Cumberland Advisors Market Commentary – Whatever It Takes!

Author: Robert Eisenbeis, Ph.D., Post Date: March 9, 2020

Federal Reserve Building Tuesday morning March 9, the Federal Reserve Bank of New York announced an increase in the current monthly schedule of repo transactions designed to deal with short-term liquidity problems for primary dealers and certain other market participants: from $100 billion to $150 billion in overnight repos and for two-week term repos from $20 billion to [Continued…]

Cumberland Advisors Market Commentary – The VIX Spread

Author: Leo Chen, Ph.D., Post Date:

Market Commentary - Cumberland Advisors - The VIX Spread The S&P 500 dropped 11.5% the week before last week, the fastest correction in its history. The Dow Jones Industrial Average had two 1000-point drops in that week; the Dow also had four days with 1000-point intraday swings in the past two weeks, making it six out of ten trading days with 1000-point movement on [Continued…]

Cumberland Advisors Letter to Clients with respect to COVID-19

Author: Cumberland Advisors, Post Date:

Market Commentary - Cumberland Advisors - Coronavirus COVID-19 Letter to Clients To our clients: Cumberland Advisors continues to monitor global as well as local developments with respect to COVID-19 (the illness caused by the new coronavirus), while constantly considering changes that may be required to our operations, processes, and systems to ensure continued support of our clients. We constantly review and update our business continuity and [Continued…]


Cumberland Advisors Market Commentary – Did the Fed Just Waste 50 Basis Points?

Author: Robert Eisenbeis, Ph.D., Post Date: March 6, 2020

Market Commentary - Cumberland Advisors - Did the Fed Just Waste 50 Basis Points? On Tuesday morning, shortly after the market opened, the Fed did what other central banks concerned about the coronavirus didn’t do, and that was cut its policy rate. Not only did it cut the rate, it did so by 50 basis points, dropping its policy rate to the range of 1%–1.25%. As the chart below [Continued…]

Cumberland Advisors Market Commentary – Coronavirus Infects Bond Yields

Author: Tom Patterson & John R. Mousseau, CFA, Post Date: March 5, 2020

Cumberland Advisors - Coronavirus Infects Bond Yields The turmoil and volatility in the equity markets is also greatly affecting bond markets, with both taxable and tax-free yields shifting down sharply. You can see the dramatic drop in yields this year, particularly in US Treasury yields, with the very large drop in the past month as the coronavirus outbreak has moved almost [Continued…]

 


Explaining Fed Repos – John Mousseau


In the News…

 


Links to other websites or electronic media controlled or offered by Third-Parties (non-affiliates of Cumberland Advisors) are provided only as a reference and courtesy to our users. Cumberland Advisors has no control over such websites, does not recommend or endorse any opinions, ideas, products, information, or content of such sites, and makes no warranties as to the accuracy, completeness, reliability or suitability of their content. Cumberland Advisors hereby disclaims liability for any information, materials, products or services posted or offered at any of the Third-Party websites. The Third-Party may have a privacy and/or security policy different from that of Cumberland Advisors. Therefore, please refer to the specific privacy and security policies of the Third-Party when accessing their websites.

Sign up for our FREE Cumberland Market Commentaries

Cumberland Advisors Market Commentaries offer insights and analysis on upcoming, important economic issues that potentially impact global financial markets. Our team shares their thinking on global economic developments, market news and other factors that often influence investment opportunities and strategies.




Cumberland Advisors Special Update on Market Conditions, Bonds & Equities

Dear Clients & Friends,

We bring you this midweek update video discussing current market conditions and how we are positioning portfolios.


 

John offers his insights into how the bond market is behaving and Matt weighs in on what’s happening in the equities market. There is a lot of volatility at work.

Please reach out to us with any questions/comments you may have about this special midweek video, I appreciate your calls, questions, comments, and emails.

Watch the video update in the player above or at this link: https://youtu.be/eTqXYjNdfNE

Thank you for taking the time to join us at Cumberland Advisors.

You can reach/follow Matt at:
-Link to Matt’s Email: Matthew.McAleer@Cumber.com
-Link to Matt’s Twitter: https://twitter.com/MattMcAleer4
-Link to Matt’s LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/matthew-c-mcaleer/
-Call Matt: (800) 257-7013

Other questions or comments? Email us at info@cumber.com or give us a call at (800) 257-7013.


Links to other websites or electronic media controlled or offered by Third-Parties (non-affiliates of Cumberland Advisors) are provided only as a reference and courtesy to our users. Cumberland Advisors has no control over such websites, does not recommend or endorse any opinions, ideas, products, information, or content of such sites, and makes no warranties as to the accuracy, completeness, reliability or suitability of their content. Cumberland Advisors hereby disclaims liability for any information, materials, products or services posted or offered at any of the Third-Party websites. The Third-Party may have a privacy and/or security policy different from that of Cumberland Advisors. Therefore, please refer to the specific privacy and security policies of the Third-Party when accessing their websites.

Sign up for our FREE Cumberland Market Commentaries

Cumberland Advisors Market Commentaries offer insights and analysis on upcoming, important economic issues that potentially impact global financial markets. Our team shares their thinking on global economic developments, market news and other factors that often influence investment opportunities and strategies.




Cumberland Advisors Week in Review (Mar 02, 2020 – Mar 06, 2020)

The Cumberland Advisors Week in Review is a recap of news, commentary, and opinion from our team.

Week In Review

These are not revised assessments, and circumstances may have changed in the market from the time of original publication. We also include older commentaries that our editors have determined may be of interest to our audience. Your feedback is always welcome.

CUMBERLAND ADVISORS’ WEEKLY RECAP

As part of Cumberland Advisors’ continuous effort to maintain strong customer relationships, we offer this week’s short video discussing current market conditions and how we are positioning portfolios.

 

Thank you for joining us for another “Cumberland Advisors Week In Review.” This week we have David Kotok and Matt McAleer on camera sharing their thoughts with you.

David talks about:
-What’s happening with the Treasury Yield Curve in relation to COVID-19, the coronavirus.
-Fund managers have to put their money to work after selling equities. What’s the effect? David explains.

Now, onto Matt:
-We review dates and numbers and back up our talk with a chart to add more context
-What are we nibbling on and where did we put cash to work?
-How do and did we approach this week’s trading?
-How do fear and panic weigh in?
-Are foreign buyers of Treasurys part of the picture?
-What will tilt money toward the equity side?

Please reach out to me with any questions/comments you may have about this week’s video, I always appreciate your calls, comments, and emails.

Watch this week’s update in the player above or at this link: https://youtu.be/2Ao_bLNBcLY

Have a great weekend and thank you for joining us at Cumberland Advisors.

-Matt McAleer

PS: Our energy conference, called “An Outlook on Energy Policy” has been postponed due to coronavirus worries. We thank you for your interest but the travel restrictions and cautious direction we and other firms have put in place results in this prudent delay. We hope to reschedule later this year and we’ll share a new date when it’s been decided.

Matt enjoys your feedback. You can reach him at:
-Link to Matt’s Email: Matthew.McAleer@Cumber.com
-Link to Matt’s Twitter: https://twitter.com/MattMcAleer4
-Link to Matt’s LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/matthew-c-mcaleer/
-Feel free to email us at info@cumber.com or give us a call at (800) 257-7013

Contact Matt or any one of our advisors by following this link: https://www.cumber.com/our-people/


Explaining Fed Repos – John Mousseau


Cumberland Advisors Market Commentary – Coronavirus Infects Bond Yields

Author: Tom Patterson & John R. Mousseau, CFA, Post Date: March 5, 2020

Cumberland Advisors - Coronavirus Infects Bond Yields The turmoil and volatility in the equity markets is also greatly affecting bond markets, with both taxable and tax-free yields shifting down sharply. You can see the dramatic drop in yields this year, particularly in US Treasury yields, with the very large drop in the past month as the coronavirus outbreak has moved almost [Continued…]

Cumberland Advisors Market Commentary – Headwinds Confront UK Economy and Stocks

Author: William Witherell, Ph.D., Post Date: March 4, 2020

Market Commentary - Cumberland Advisors - Headwinds Confront UK Economy and Stocks UK economic indicators for January looked encouraging. The HIS Markit Composite Purchase Managers Index (PMI), combining measures of manufacturing and service sector activity for the month, rose from 49.3 in December to 53.3, the strongest in 16 months, with a robust increase in new orders. Also, several indicators of business optimism registered sharp increases. Uncertainty [Continued…]

Cumberland Advisors Market Commentary – Market’s Virus Swoon, ACE2 & Nankai University?

Author: David R. Kotok, Post Date: March 3, 2020

Market Commentary - Cumberland Advisors - Corona Virus & Markets We invite thoughts from readers about this somewhat technical commentary. But first, please consider what it means when the narrative is controlled by and censored by politicians whether in China, in United States or elsewhere. For many history students, me included, censorship in America is a really distressing thought when it comes to public health [Continued…]


 


In the News…


Links to other websites or electronic media controlled or offered by Third-Parties (non-affiliates of Cumberland Advisors) are provided only as a reference and courtesy to our users. Cumberland Advisors has no control over such websites, does not recommend or endorse any opinions, ideas, products, information, or content of such sites, and makes no warranties as to the accuracy, completeness, reliability or suitability of their content. Cumberland Advisors hereby disclaims liability for any information, materials, products or services posted or offered at any of the Third-Party websites. The Third-Party may have a privacy and/or security policy different from that of Cumberland Advisors. Therefore, please refer to the specific privacy and security policies of the Third-Party when accessing their websites.

Sign up for our FREE Cumberland Market Commentaries

Cumberland Advisors Market Commentaries offer insights and analysis on upcoming, important economic issues that potentially impact global financial markets. Our team shares their thinking on global economic developments, market news and other factors that often influence investment opportunities and strategies.