Bloomberg Daybreak Australia: David Kotok Discusses Dislocation in Markets/Economy

Bloomberg Daybreak Australia: David Kotok Discusses Dislocation in Markets/Economy

May 27, 2020 – Running time 48:27 – David joins at the 8:20 mark

David Kotok, Chairman & Chief Investment Officer at Cumberland Advisors, discusses markets, market dislocation, the economy, coronavirus, growth rates, liquidity, the bargain he sees in municipal bonds, and more. Hosted by Haidi Stroud-Watts.

Bloomberg Daybreak Australia with David R. Kotok (05-27-2020)

Watch in the embedded player or view here: https://www.bloomberg.com/news/videos/2020-05-27/-bloomberg-daybreak-australia-full-show-05-27-2020-video


NOTE: Links to other websites or electronic media controlled or offered by Third-Parties (non-affiliates of Cumberland Advisors) are provided only as a reference and courtesy to our users. Cumberland Advisors has no control over such websites, does not recommend or endorse any opinions, ideas, products, information, or content of such sites, and makes no warranties as to the accuracy, completeness, reliability or suitability of their content. Cumberland Advisors hereby disclaims liability for any information, materials, products or services posted or offered at any of the Third-Party websites. The Third-Party may have a privacy and/or security policy different from that of Cumberland Advisors. Therefore, please refer to the specific privacy and security policies of the Third-Party when accessing their websites.


If you like podcasts, check out this one from July 2015 featuring David Kotok talking about his background and Camp Kotok with Barry Ritholtz. They also talk about the history of Cumberland Advisors since its founding, and delve into fundamental principles of investing and valuation: https://www.stitcher.com/podcast/bloomberg/masters-in-business/e/48339521

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More “Masters in Business” podcasts here:
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BondBuyer – Municipal short-end rally grinds on

Excerpt from…

Municipal short-end rally grinds on

By Lynne Funk, Christine Albano, Chip Barnett – The Bond Buyer
May 19, 2020

Cumberland Advisors John Mousseau

The municipal market continued its short-end rally Tuesday with yields falling by as much as seven basis points, amid a well-functioning new-issue market that saw deals re-priced to lower yields.

Amid an otherwise quiet tone that was characterized by some firmness and strong demand for a large Connecticut pricing and a steepening yield curve, there was support for the front end of the municipal market, according to traders.

The front of the municipal yield curve is “astounding” and traders said dealers are uncharacteristically accepting the levels, likely due to the historically attractive ratios, he noted.

Others acknowledged the positive tone and demand in the secondary market.

John Mousseau, president and director of fixed income at Cumberland Advisors said he is seeing strong secondary demand even amid the credit pandemic-impacted market.

“The follow through that the markets have seen on MTA from two weeks ago and Illinois from last week is testimony to the access to the capital markets that exists even for troubled credits,” Mousseau said Tuesday.

The Northeast trader said demand is decent in the secondary, but with some muted activity.

He cited a block of Illinois general obligation bonds, which priced in the primary market last week, whose yields firmed by 40 to 50 basis points from where the original pricing. A Chicago trader said Illinois paper saw some flow and it wasn’t “too shabby.”

Read the full article with subscription (paywall) at The Bond Buyer website.


Links to other websites or electronic media controlled or offered by Third-Parties (non-affiliates of Cumberland Advisors) are provided only as a reference and courtesy to our users. Cumberland Advisors has no control over such websites, does not recommend or endorse any opinions, ideas, products, information, or content of such sites, and makes no warranties as to the accuracy, completeness, reliability or suitability of their content. Cumberland Advisors hereby disclaims liability for any information, materials, products or services posted or offered at any of the Third-Party websites. The Third-Party may have a privacy and/or security policy different from that of Cumberland Advisors. Therefore, please refer to the specific privacy and security policies of the Third-Party when accessing their websites.

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Cumberland Advisors Market Commentaries offer insights and analysis on upcoming, important economic issues that potentially impact global financial markets. Our team shares their thinking on global economic developments, market news and other factors that often influence investment opportunities and strategies.




BondBuyer – Dislocations in trading, pricing remain in municipal market

Excerpt from…

Dislocations in trading, pricing remain in municipal market

By Lynne Funk, Christine Albano, Chip Barnett
Apr 30, 2020

Cumberland Advisors John Mousseau

The municipal secondary was steady according to AAA benchmarks but several trades pointed to dislocations on several high-grade names.

Market participants indicated the dislocations were likely attributable to month-end accounting issues.

There still was a relatively quiet tone in the market Thursday (Apr 30, 2020) spurred by a range of technical issues, from month-end accounting and financing to spread widening, price volatility and the COVID-19 impact on businesses and the economy, sources said.

“It’s a day with scales unchanged, but certainly a wariness in the muni markets,” John R. Mousseau, president and chief executive officer and director of fixed income at Cumberland Advisors, said Thursday afternoon.

“There’s clearly a hangover from Mitch McConnell’s statement from last week,” he added, pointing to the U.S. Senate Majority Leader’s comments on April 22 that cash-strapped states impacted by COVID-19 declare bankruptcy.

“The big question is do we ramp back to 95% economic activity pre-crisis — which is still a recession — or to 80% of pre-crisis, which is near Depression levels,” Mousseau said.

Read the full article with subscription (paywall) at The Bond Buyer website.


Links to other websites or electronic media controlled or offered by Third-Parties (non-affiliates of Cumberland Advisors) are provided only as a reference and courtesy to our users. Cumberland Advisors has no control over such websites, does not recommend or endorse any opinions, ideas, products, information, or content of such sites, and makes no warranties as to the accuracy, completeness, reliability or suitability of their content. Cumberland Advisors hereby disclaims liability for any information, materials, products or services posted or offered at any of the Third-Party websites. The Third-Party may have a privacy and/or security policy different from that of Cumberland Advisors. Therefore, please refer to the specific privacy and security policies of the Third-Party when accessing their websites.

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Cumberland Advisors Market Commentaries offer insights and analysis on upcoming, important economic issues that potentially impact global financial markets. Our team shares their thinking on global economic developments, market news and other factors that often influence investment opportunities and strategies.




HeraldTribune.com – Mitch McConnell as Meredith Whitney

The Sarasota Herald Tribune featured this commentary in their business section.

Market Commentary - Cumberland Advisors -McConnell as Meredith Whitney (Mousseau)

Mitch McConnell as Meredith Whitney

By John R. Mousseau, CFA
Posted Apr 27, 2020


Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell was reported last week by Bloomberg News saying that he “would certainly be in favor of allowing states to use the bankruptcy route” rather than giving them a Federal bailout. This reminded us of 2010 when Meredith Whitney, a noted bank analyst, predicted that there would be hundreds of billions of dollars of municipal defaults in 2011. She caused lots of market damage and outflows from municipal bond funds before sanity resumed.

Cumberland wonders what the majority leader had in mind, in that his statement is at best disingenuous and at worst inflammatory at a time when both houses of Congress, the administration, and the Federal Reserve are all engaged in the business of helping all parts of the economy get through the economic downturn caused by COVID-19.

There are also legal problems with McConnell’s position. <Continued at SHT website…Continued at SHT website…>

Continued at Sarasota Herald Tribune: https://www.heraldtribune.com/business/20200427/mitch-mcconnell-as-meredith-whitney


Links to other websites or electronic media controlled or offered by Third-Parties (non-affiliates of Cumberland Advisors) are provided only as a reference and courtesy to our users. Cumberland Advisors has no control over such websites, does not recommend or endorse any opinions, ideas, products, information, or content of such sites, and makes no warranties as to the accuracy, completeness, reliability or suitability of their content. Cumberland Advisors hereby disclaims liability for any information, materials, products or services posted or offered at any of the Third-Party websites. The Third-Party may have a privacy and/or security policy different from that of Cumberland Advisors. Therefore, please refer to the specific privacy and security policies of the Third-Party when accessing their websites.

Sign up for our FREE Cumberland Market Commentaries

Cumberland Advisors Market Commentaries offer insights and analysis on upcoming, important economic issues that potentially impact global financial markets. Our team shares their thinking on global economic developments, market news and other factors that often influence investment opportunities and strategies.




Bond Markets Through the Coronavirus – John Mousseau

Money Show Webinar - Bond Markets Through the Coronavirus with John R. Mousseau, CFA

Join John R. Mousseau, president & CEO of Cumberland Advisors, as he walks you through the analysis of treasury, taxable, and municipal markets, federal monetary policy, and administration of fiscal policy.


Watch in the embedded player or here:  Bond Markets Through the Coronavirus


Learn more about John Mousseau here: https://www.cumber.com/team/john-r-mousseau/


Links to other websites or electronic media controlled or offered by Third-Parties (non-affiliates of Cumberland Advisors) are provided only as a reference and courtesy to our users. Cumberland Advisors has no control over such websites, does not recommend or endorse any opinions, ideas, products, information, or content of such sites, and makes no warranties as to the accuracy, completeness, reliability or suitability of their content. Cumberland Advisors hereby disclaims liability for any information, materials, products or services posted or offered at any of the Third-Party websites. The Third-Party may have a privacy and/or security policy different from that of Cumberland Advisors. Therefore, please refer to the specific privacy and security policies of the Third-Party when accessing their websites.

Sign up for our FREE Cumberland Market Commentaries

Cumberland Advisors Market Commentaries offer insights and analysis on upcoming, important economic issues that potentially impact global financial markets. Our team shares their thinking on global economic developments, market news and other factors that often influence investment opportunities and strategies.




Cumberland Advisors Week in Review (Apr 20, 2020 – Apr 24, 2020)

The Cumberland Advisors Week in Review is a recap of news, commentary, and opinion from our team.

Week In Review

These are not revised assessments, and circumstances may have changed in the market from the time of original publication. We also include older commentaries that our editors have determined may be of interest to our audience. Your feedback is always welcome.

CUMBERLAND ADVISORS’ WEEKLY RECAP

As part of Cumberland Advisors’ continuous effort to maintain strong customer relationships, we offer this week’s short video discussing current market conditions and how we are positioning portfolios.

Thank you for joining Cumberland Advisors for this end-of-week update on market conditions, bonds & equities with me, Matt McAleer, and John Mousseau.

John Mousseau leads today on this week’s video.He talks about:
-Period of normalcy this week for bonds.
-Key for this week: Deals came to market and got done easily. Most municipal bond deals were oversubscribed and that’s a good sign. We had stability in the markets.
-The real issue this week is Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell’s talk of states declaring bankruptcy instead of getting federal aid. There are a number of problems that this scenario raises.
-John wrote a commentary this week about McConnell’s statement and the link is here if you missed it: https://www.cumber.com/cumberland-advisors-market-commentary-mcconnell-as-meredith-whitney/

I’m next with my take on markets this week. My take on a few things:
-Another volatile week.
-What’s positive and negative this week?
-The market was able to price in the volatility in oil.
-Very interesting in what’s going on with transportation. What’s under the hood?
-What are we seeing in biotech? Medical devices?
-What is VIX trying to tell us?

Once again, we shot our own video this week. Thank you for taking the time to join us.

Please reach out with any questions/comments you may have about this week’s
update; we appreciate your calls, comments, and emails.

Watch in the player above or at this link: https://youtu.be/uv59KJMqi_Y

Have a safe weekend,

-Matt McAleer

Matt enjoys your feedback. You can reach him at:
-Link to Matt’s Email: Matthew.McAleer@Cumber.com
-Link to Matt’s Twitter: https://twitter.com/MattMcAleer4
-Link to Matt’s LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/matthew-c-mcaleer/
-Call Matt: (800) 257-7013

Other questions or comments? Email us at info@cumber.com or give us a call at (800) 257-7013.

Contact Matt or any one of our advisors by following this link: https://www.cumber.com/our-people/


Money Show Webinar - Bond Markets Through the Coronavirus with John R. Mousseau, CFA

Watch John’s April 23, 2020 presentation,  “Bond Markets Through the Coronavirus” here: https://www.cumber.com/bond-markets-through-the-coronavirus-john-mousseau/


Cumberland Advisors In The News

Fed Following WWII Model to Control Yield Curve

Bloomberg Radio – April 21, 2020

David Kotok, Chairman & Chief Investment Officer at Cumberland Advisors, discusses bond markets, the Fed and current investment outlook. Hosted by Lisa Abramowicz and Paul Sweeney.
Running time 07:36 – Play Episode: https://www.bloomberg.com/news/audio/2020-04-21/fed-following-wwii-model-to-control-yield-curve-kotok-radio


McConnell’s bankruptcy suggestion boomerangs

by Brian Tumulty – The Bond Buyer – April 24, 2020

Critics say Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell’s suggestion that Congress should allow states to file for bankruptcy would undermine efforts to quickly restart the economy and could damage the municipal market. John Mousseau, president and chief executive officer and director of fixed income at Cumberland Advisors, likened McConnell’s comment to the 2010 prediction by Meredith Whitney, a noted bank analyst, predicting hundreds of billions of dollars of municipal defaults were coming. They never materialized. She caused lots of market damage and outflows from municipal bond funds before sanity resumed and yields moved lower than they had been before she made her remarks, according to Mousseau. Senate Democratic Minority Leader Chuck Schumer said the backlash “has given even more momentum for state and local assistance,” making McConnell “increasingly isolated.” [Continued behind Paywall at The Bond Buyer…]


Lots of Muni Bonds Are Going to Be Just Fine

by Barry Ritholtz – April 13, 2020

(Bloomberg Opinion) — In an extraordinary attempt to help the economy in the midst of the coronavirus economic downturn, the Federal Reserve’s balance sheet has ballooned to more than $6 trillion.

How this has affected fixed-income pricing, yield, risk and even trading is the subject of this week’s Masters in Business interview with John R. Mousseau, president, chief executive officer and director of fixed income at Cumberland Advisors. Mousseau also is the co-author of the book “Adventures in Muniland: A Guide to Municipal Bond Investing in the Post-Crisis Era.”

He notes the current slump is very different from the 2008-09 financial crisis. That event was driven by credit deterioration and mortgage defaults. Things only came to a head only after defaults soared and bond markets developed liquidity problems after the collapse of Lehman Brothers. In the fixed-income world today, the coronavirus pandemic is characterized mostly by economic paralysis, but so far not mass defaults.

Full story at Yahoo Finance: https://finance.yahoo.com/news/lots-muni-bonds-going-just-153254865.html

More News About Cumberland Advisors Here: https://www.cumber.com/news


Cumberland Advisors Market Commentary

Cumberland Advisors Market Commentary offers insights and analysis on upcoming, important economic issues that potentially impact global financial markets. Our team shares their thinking on global economic developments, market news and other factors that often influence investment opportunities and strategies. Our readers appreciate its timeliness, depth of analysis, and quality of research.

To read current and past commentaries, visit www.cumber.com/category/market-commentary/

 


 

Cumberland Advisors Market Commentary – The UK Economy Falls Off the Cliff; Brexit Negotiations Resume

Author: William Witherell, Ph.D., Post Date: April 24, 2020

Market Commentary - Cumberland Advisors - The UK Economy Falls Off the Cliff; Brexit Negotiations ResumeThe economic situation in the UK has worsened dramatically in just the month and a half since our March 4th commentary on the subject. Last week, the Bank of England’s (BOE) governor, Andrew Bailey, told journalists that he did not disagree with the Office for Budget Responsibility’s forecast of a 35% decline in the UK’s [Continued…]

Cumberland Advisors Market Commentary – McConnell as Meredith Whitney

Author: John R. Mousseau, CFA, Post Date: April 23, 2020

Market Commentary - Cumberland Advisors -McConnell as Meredith Whitney (Mousseau)Senate Majority Leader McConnell yesterday was reported by Bloomberg News as saying that he “would certainly be in favor of allowing states to use the bankruptcy route” rather than giving them a Federal bailout. This reminded us of 2010 when Meredith Whitney, a noted bank analyst, predicted that there would be hundreds of billions of [Continued…]

Cumberland Advisors Market Commentary – About Masks – (Plus a personal note)

Author: David R. Kotok, Post Date: April 22, 2020

David Kotok - About MasksStraight Talk on Masks from Anthony Fauci – In a widely shared YouTube interview with Lilly Singh, Anthony Fauci, head of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases (NIAID) and a member of the White House coronavirus task force, explained the rationale for wearing face masks. He also explained why the CDC didn’t initially suggest [Continued…]

Cumberland Advisors Market Commentary – COVID – 19: Health Recovery and Economic Recovery Go Hand in Hand

Author: Peter A. Gold, Esquire & Jeffrey P. Gold, MD, Post Date: April 20, 2020

COVID - 19: Health Recovery and Economic Recovery Go Hand in Hand There is a lot of competing information in circulation relating to the current coronavirus pandemic and there is now a rush to offer opinion on how to best reopen economies and communities in a safe manner. It is our honor and privilege to introduce you to the following authors who also happen to be brothers. [Continued…]

Cumberland Advisors Market Commentary – Sturm und Drang & Beethoven’s Pastoral

Author: David R. Kotok, Post Date: April 19, 2020

Sturm und Drang & Beethoven’s PastoralSurprisingly, the German term Sturm und Drang originated with the American Revolution in 1776. The term first appeared as the title of a play by Friedrich Maximilian Klinger. The setting of the play is the unfolding American Revolution, in which, says Wikipedia, “the author gives violent expression to difficult emotions and extols individuality and subjectivity [Continued…]

 

Cumberland Advisors Market Commentary – Narrow Banks

Author: Robert Eisenbeis, Ph.D., Post Date: April 17, 2020

Narrow Banks

In a move largely overlooked due to the virus pandemic, on March 25, Judge Andrew L. Carter, Jr., of the United States District Court for the Southern District of New York dismissed a case filed by principals of The Narrow Bank (TNB) against the Federal Reserve Bank of New York (https://www.tnbusa.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/03/2020.03.25-TNB-Order.pdf). What is The Narrow [Continued…]

Cumberland Advisors Market Commentary – Fed Goes to War

Author: David R. Kotok, Post Date: April 16, 2020

Fed Goes to War

The April 12, 2020, posting on the Money, Banking and Financial Markets site, entitled “The Fed Goes to War: Part 3,” expands on the discussion of the extraordinary measures taken recently by the Federal Reserve. Let me offer a personal endorsement: I find the site consistently and exceptionally helpful. Much has already been written about about this expansion of the Fed’s arsenal and the list of new facilities. Essentially, the playbook for last decade’s Great Financial Crisis has been reopened, and a whole new set of tools has been added. [Continued…]

 

The CDC Foundation

Author: David R. Kotok, Post Date: March 23, 2020

CDC Foundation Dr Judy Monroe & David KotokDear readers. The CDC Foundation is not widely known. It’s a 501(c)3 that was created by Congress as a special charitable agency. The Foundation works right alongside the CDC and other national health agencies but is an independent charity. It has a special-purpose charter. Its purpose is to respond rapidly to threats like COVID-19 or [Continued…]


 


Links to other websites or electronic media controlled or offered by Third-Parties (non-affiliates of Cumberland Advisors) are provided only as a reference and courtesy to our users. Cumberland Advisors has no control over such websites, does not recommend or endorse any opinions, ideas, products, information, or content of such sites, and makes no warranties as to the accuracy, completeness, reliability or suitability of their content. Cumberland Advisors hereby disclaims liability for any information, materials, products or services posted or offered at any of the Third-Party websites. The Third-Party may have a privacy and/or security policy different from that of Cumberland Advisors. Therefore, please refer to the specific privacy and security policies of the Third-Party when accessing their websites.

Sign up for our FREE Cumberland Market Commentaries

Cumberland Advisors Market Commentaries offer insights and analysis on upcoming, important economic issues that potentially impact global financial markets. Our team shares their thinking on global economic developments, market news and other factors that often influence investment opportunities and strategies.




Cumberland Advisors Market Commentary – McConnell as Meredith Whitney

Senate Majority Leader McConnell yesterday was reported by Bloomberg News as saying that he “would certainly be in favor of allowing states to use the bankruptcy route” rather than giving them a Federal bailout. This reminded us of 2010 when Meredith Whitney, a noted bank analyst, predicted that there would be hundreds of billions of dollars of municipal defaults in 2011. She caused lots of market damage and outflows from municipal bond funds before sanity resumed and yields moved lower than they had been before she made her remarks. The Senator is trying to take a page from her playbook.

Market Commentary - Cumberland Advisors -McConnell as Meredith Whitney (Mousseau)

Cumberland wonders what the majority leader had in mind, in that his statement is at best disingenuous and at worst inflammatory at a time when both houses of Congress, the administration, and the Federal Reserve are all engaged in the business of helping all parts of the economy get through the economic downturn caused by Covid-19.

We did not notice any market reaction on Wednesday April 22, in the wake of McConnell’s statement, apart from a drop in price that was consistent with the drop in US Treasuries. This doesn’t mean that he cannot cause damage with ill-considered remarks.

There are also two legal problems with McConnell’s position. First, it is not possible for states to declare bankruptcy under current law. This means that laws would have to be changed. That is unlikely given the current makeup of Congress, especially when they are concentrated on getting the economy over the hump of the virus.
Secondly, to meet conditions of insolvency, states would have to prove they have exhausted all other means to satisfy debts. Those would include reducing their workforce, selling state-owned property, etc. In other words, the states could not prove they were insolvent.

Given the fact that the Treasury has committed to helping the municipal bond market by a purchase program and that the Federal Reserve has committed to buying notes out to two years issued by states, counties, and cities, the Senator’s remarks seem particularly counterproductive, given the need to restore economic stability to individuals, private businesses, and state and local governments.

If the muni market had any substantial sell-off based on these irresponsible remarks, it would be yet another opportunity to buy longer paper at extremely attractive yields. We will keep our readers informed of developments.

John R. Mousseau, CFA
President, Chief Executive Officer & Director of Fixed Income
Email | Bio


Links to other websites or electronic media controlled or offered by Third-Parties (non-affiliates of Cumberland Advisors) are provided only as a reference and courtesy to our users. Cumberland Advisors has no control over such websites, does not recommend or endorse any opinions, ideas, products, information, or content of such sites, and makes no warranties as to the accuracy, completeness, reliability or suitability of their content. Cumberland Advisors hereby disclaims liability for any information, materials, products or services posted or offered at any of the Third-Party websites. The Third-Party may have a privacy and/or security policy different from that of Cumberland Advisors. Therefore, please refer to the specific privacy and security policies of the Third-Party when accessing their websites.

Sign up for our FREE Cumberland Market Commentaries

Cumberland Advisors Market Commentaries offer insights and analysis on upcoming, important economic issues that potentially impact global financial markets. Our team shares their thinking on global economic developments, market news and other factors that often influence investment opportunities and strategies.




Cumberland Advisors Week in Review (Apr 13, 2020 – Apr 17, 2020)

The Cumberland Advisors Week in Review is a recap of news, commentary, and opinion from our team.

Week In Review

These are not revised assessments, and circumstances may have changed in the market from the time of original publication. We also include older commentaries that our editors have determined may be of interest to our audience. Your feedback is always welcome.

CUMBERLAND ADVISORS’ WEEKLY RECAP

As part of Cumberland Advisors’ continuous effort to maintain strong customer relationships, we offer this week’s short video discussing current market conditions and how we are positioning portfolios.

Thank you for joining Cumberland Advisors for this end-of-week update on market conditions, bonds & equities with me, Matt McAleer, and John Mousseau.

David Kotok also shot a video to accompany his commentary this week which you can see below.

I’m first up with my take on markets this week. I made it into the office with John Mousseau today though we sit about 50ft apart. We remain cautious and shoot our videos separately.

Next, John tackles the bond market. We’re still getting great feedback about the Federal Reserve’s unprecedented action last week. If you haven’t read it, Cumberland Advisors preceded their move with a public commentary and call to action entitled, “A Proposal for the Coronavirus Anticipation Note (CAN)” on April 01, 2020. Let us know what you think: https://www.cumber.com/cumberland-advisors-market-commentary-a-proposal-for-the-coronavirus-anticipation-note-can/

We all shot our own video this week and we appreciate you taking the time to join us.

Please reach out with any questions/comments you may have about this update, we always appreciate your calls, comments, and emails.

Watch in the player above or at this link: https://youtu.be/dkV9PjXfR6U

Have a safe weekend and thank you for joining us at Cumberland Advisors.

-Matt McAleer

Matt enjoys your feedback. You can reach him at:
-Link to Matt’s Email: Matthew.McAleer@Cumber.com
-Link to Matt’s Twitter: https://twitter.com/MattMcAleer4
-Link to Matt’s LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/matthew-c-mcaleer/
-Call Matt: (800) 257-7013

Other questions or comments? Email us at info@cumber.com or give us a call at (800) 257-7013.

Contact Matt or any one of our advisors by following this link: https://www.cumber.com/our-people/

 


Cumberland Advisors In The News

Lots of Muni Bonds Are Going to Be Just Fine

by Barry Ritholtz – April 13, 2020

(Bloomberg Opinion) — In an extraordinary attempt to help the economy in the midst of the coronavirus economic downturn, the Federal Reserve’s balance sheet has ballooned to more than $6 trillion.

How this has affected fixed-income pricing, yield, risk and even trading is the subject of this week’s Masters in Business interview with John R. Mousseau, president, chief executive officer and director of fixed income at Cumberland Advisors. Mousseau also is the co-author of the book “Adventures in Muniland: A Guide to Municipal Bond Investing in the Post-Crisis Era.”

He notes the current slump is very different from the 2008-09 financial crisis. That event was driven by credit deterioration and mortgage defaults. Things only came to a head only after defaults soared and bond markets developed liquidity problems after the collapse of Lehman Brothers. In the fixed-income world today, the coronavirus pandemic is characterized mostly by economic paralysis, but so far not mass defaults.

Full story at Yahoo Finance: https://finance.yahoo.com/news/lots-muni-bonds-going-just-153254865.html

Court rules Puerto Rico residents eligible for SSI program

by Robert Slavin – April 14, 2020

A federal appeals court has upheld a decision that people in Puerto Rico are eligible for the Supplemental Security Income program.

As many as 700,000 people may be impacted by Friday’s ruling from the U.S. Court of Appeals for the First Circuit. The Social Security Administration runs SSI, which provides money to low-income people who are disabled, blind, or over 65. It also provides money to families with disabled children.
The appeals court ruling may impact as many as 700,000 people in Puerto Rico.Bloomberg News

Puerto Rico currently has a program jointly funded with the federal government that provides funds to these groups.

According to Jenniffer González-Colon, Puerto Rico’s non-voting representative in Congress, the average SSI beneficiary receives $553 monthly, whereas the average beneficiary under the Puerto Rico program receives $77 monthly. The maximum income permitted for an individual to qualify for SSI is $750 per month, compared to a maximum of $65 per month for the Puerto Rico program.

Cumberland Advisors Portfolio Manager Shaun Burgess said that he expected SSI to have more impact by allowing the local government to save money on the existing program than as a stimulus on the local economy. Cumberland owns insured Puerto Rico bonds.

Read the full story at The Bond Buyer: https://www.bondbuyer.com/news/court-rules-puerto-rico-residents-eligible-for-ssi-program

More News About Cumberland Advisors Here: https://www.cumber.com/news


Cumberland Advisors Market Commentary

Cumberland Advisors Market Commentary offers insights and analysis on upcoming, important economic issues that potentially impact global financial markets. Our team shares their thinking on global economic developments, market news and other factors that often influence investment opportunities and strategies. Our readers appreciate its timeliness, depth of analysis, and quality of research.

To read current and past commentaries, visit www.cumber.com/category/market-commentary/

 


Cumberland Advisors Market Commentary – Narrow Banks

Author: Robert Eisenbeis, Ph.D., Post Date: April 17, 2020

Narrow Banks

In a move largely overlooked due to the virus pandemic, on March 25, Judge Andrew L. Carter, Jr., of the United States District Court for the Southern District of New York dismissed a case filed by principals of The Narrow Bank (TNB) against the Federal Reserve Bank of New York (https://www.tnbusa.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/03/2020.03.25-TNB-Order.pdf). What is The Narrow [Continued…]

Cumberland Advisors Market Commentary – Fed Goes to War

Author: David R. Kotok, Post Date: April 16, 2020

Fed Goes to War

The April 12, 2020, posting on the Money, Banking and Financial Markets site, entitled “The Fed Goes to War: Part 3,” expands on the discussion of the extraordinary measures taken recently by the Federal Reserve. Let me offer a personal endorsement: I find the site consistently and exceptionally helpful. Much has already been written about about this expansion of the Fed’s arsenal and the list of new facilities. Essentially, the playbook for last decade’s Great Financial Crisis has been reopened, and a whole new set of tools has been added. [Continued…]

Cumberland Advisors Market Commentary – A Very British Affair — Living with COVID-19 in the UK

Author: Kevin Humphreys, Post Date: April 15, 2020

A Very British Affair — Living with COVID-19 in the UK

Kevin Humphreys is a long-time commentary subscriber from the other side of the pond. He is a London-based independent financial market analyst and commentator with 23 years of trading and management in tier 1 UK banks followed by another 10 years in broking, management and market analysis roles, specializing in Eurozone and UK markets. Kevin [Continued…]

Cumberland Advisors Market Commentary – Governors and the States

Author: David R. Kotok, Post Date: April 13, 2020

Market Commentary - Cumberland Advisors - Governors and the States“Governor Gavin Newsom said that he would use the bulk purchasing power of California ‘as a nation-state’ to acquire the hospital supplies that the federal government has failed to provide. If all goes according to plan, Newsom said, California might even ‘export some of those supplies to states in need.’ “‘Nation-state.’ ‘Export.’ “Newsom is accomplishing [Continued…]

Cumberland Advisors Commentary – The Biblical Rembrandt

Author: David R. Kotok, Post Date: April 12, 2020

Rembrandt - Christ Before Pilate

In Amsterdam in 1632 , a talented young artist, Rembrandt Harmenszoon van Rijn, was commissioned to produce five etchings of biblical scenes. Rembrandt was born in 1606 and this was his breakthrough engagement, at age 26. His patron was Stadtholder Frederik Hendrik, Prince of Orange, the Dutch sovereign. Rembrandt was inspired by Rubens’s altarpiece in [Continued…]

Cumberland Advisors Market Commentary – Repos Revisited

Author: Robert Eisenbeis, Ph.D., Post Date: April 9, 2020

Market Commentary - Cumberland Advisors - Repos RevisitedOn March 12, a Wall Street Journal headline announced, “Fed to Inject $1.5 Trillion in Bid to Prevent ‘Unusual Disruptions’ in Markets” (https://www.wsj.com/articles/fed-to-inject-1-5-trillion-in-bid-to-prevent-unusual-disruptions-in-markets-11584033537). The inference was that the Fed was embarking upon a massive injection of funds into short-term money markets. That is, the first three offerings of $500 billion each were but the first [Continued…]

Cumberland Advisors Guest Commentary – Timely Data Matters

Author: Samuel E. Rines, Post Date: April 8, 2020

Guest Commentary - Timely Data MattersMy friend and Camp K veteran, Sam Rines ( Chief Economist at Avalon Investment and Advisory), has an excellent discussion on high frequency data and how critical it is in the current environment. He is kind enough to give us permission to share the entire piece entitled, “Timely Data Matters,” with our readers. Thank you, [Continued…]

Cumberland Advisors Market Commentary – WW2 versus WWC: The Doolittle Moment

Author: David R. Kotok, Post Date: April 7, 2020

WW2 versus WWC - The Doolittle Moment 1280x720

We’re going to look at World War 2 (WW2) versus the World War COVID-19 (WWC) events now unfolding and see what we can glean about markets, economies, interest rates, inflation rates, and the overall outlook. Let’s start with the stock market. We expect this will be a multi-part series. Below is a chart that shows [Continued…]

The War in Europe

Author: William Witherell, Ph.D., Post Date: April 3, 2020

The War in EuropeDuring the first quarter of 2020, Europe once again found itself to be in the center of a global war, this time against an invisible, very deadly enemy, the virus SARS-CoV-2, which causes COVID-19. At the end of the quarter, on March 31, the 19 countries of the Eurozone had 359,296 confirmed cases of the [Continued…]

The CDC Foundation

Author: David R. Kotok, Post Date: March 23, 2020

CDC Foundation Dr Judy Monroe & David KotokDear readers. The CDC Foundation is not widely known. It’s a 501(c)3 that was created by Congress as a special charitable agency. The Foundation works right alongside the CDC and other national health agencies but is an independent charity. It has a special-purpose charter. Its purpose is to respond rapidly to threats like COVID-19 or [Continued…]


John Mousseau will be part of a MoneyShow presentation next week (Apr 23, 2020 1:00 PM – 7:30 PM EDT) and his talk will be Bond Markets Through the Coronavirus. He’ll cover analysis of treasury, taxable, and municipal markets, federal monetary policy, and administration of fiscal policy. More info, talks by other speakers, and registration can be found here: Resetting Your Portfolio in a Changing World


Links to other websites or electronic media controlled or offered by Third-Parties (non-affiliates of Cumberland Advisors) are provided only as a reference and courtesy to our users. Cumberland Advisors has no control over such websites, does not recommend or endorse any opinions, ideas, products, information, or content of such sites, and makes no warranties as to the accuracy, completeness, reliability or suitability of their content. Cumberland Advisors hereby disclaims liability for any information, materials, products or services posted or offered at any of the Third-Party websites. The Third-Party may have a privacy and/or security policy different from that of Cumberland Advisors. Therefore, please refer to the specific privacy and security policies of the Third-Party when accessing their websites.

Sign up for our FREE Cumberland Market Commentaries

Cumberland Advisors Market Commentaries offer insights and analysis on upcoming, important economic issues that potentially impact global financial markets. Our team shares their thinking on global economic developments, market news and other factors that often influence investment opportunities and strategies.




Cumberland Advisors Week in Review (Mar 30, 2020 – Apr 03, 2020)

The Cumberland Advisors Week in Review is a recap of news, commentary, and opinion from our team.

Week In Review

These are not revised assessments, and circumstances may have changed in the market from the time of original publication. We also include older commentaries that our editors have determined may be of interest to our audience. Your feedback is always welcome.

CUMBERLAND ADVISORS’ WEEKLY RECAP

As part of Cumberland Advisors’ continuous effort to maintain strong customer relationships, we offer this week’s short video discussing current market conditions and how we are positioning portfolios.

Thank you for joining Cumberland Advisors for this end-of-week update on market conditions, bonds & equities with Matt McAleer and John Mousseau.

We’re in full social distancing mode this week, doing our part to combat COVID-19/Coronavirus.

First up is Matt McAleer with his thoughts on equities.

Next up is John Mousseau and his analysis of the fixed income / bond market.

Both gentlemen shot their own video this week and we expect to build upon this experience and get even better at producing our updates in a distributed fashion for you. Thanks for joining us.

Please reach out to Matt or John with any questions/comments you may have about this video, we always appreciate your calls, comments, and emails.

Watch this week’s update in the player above or at this link: https://youtu.be/7EabFgH8BYw

Have a safe weekend and thank you for joining us at Cumberland Advisors.

-Matt McAleer

Matt enjoys your feedback. You can reach him at:
-Link to Matt’s Email: Matthew.McAleer@Cumber.com
-Link to Matt’s Twitter: https://twitter.com/MattMcAleer4
-Link to Matt’s LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/matthew-c-mcaleer/
-Call Matt: (800) 257-7013

Other questions or comments? Email us at info@cumber.com or give us a call at (800) 257-7013.

Contact Matt or any one of our advisors by following this link: https://www.cumber.com/our-people/

 


Cumberland Advisors In The News

Cumberland proposes new cash-flow anticipation note to help issuers fight coronavirus

State and local governments are facing a cash-flow crunch under the present emergency conditions, which limit or eliminate many reveue streams. Cumberland argues that this type of short-term security would help alleviate the problem and let municipalities recover more quickly once the danger had passed and things return to normal.

Full story at The Bond Buyer (paywall): https://www.bondbuyer.com/news/cumberland-proposes-new-cash-flow-anticipation-note-to-help-issuers-fight-coronavirus

More News About Cumberland Advisors Here: https://www.cumber.com/news


Cumberland Advisors Market Commentary

Cumberland Advisors Market Commentary offers insights and analysis on upcoming, important economic issues that potentially impact global financial markets. Our team shares their thinking on global economic developments, market news and other factors that often influence investment opportunities and strategies. Our readers appreciate its timeliness, depth of analysis, and quality of research.

To read current and past commentaries, visit www.cumber.com/category/market-commentary/


The War in Europe

Author: William Witherell, Ph.D., Post Date: April 3, 2020

The War in Europe During the first quarter of 2020, Europe once again found itself to be in the center of a global war, this time against an invisible, very deadly enemy, the virus SARS-CoV-2, which causes COVID-19. At the end of the quarter, on March 31, the 19 countries of the Eurozone had 359,296 confirmed cases of the [Continued…]

China’s Healthcare & Economy in the Aftermath of COVID-19

Author: David R. Kotok, Post Date: April 2, 2020

China’s Healthcare & Economy in the Aftermath of COVID-19 Dear Readers, While the United States and much of the world outside of Asia is still trying to “flatten the curve” in response to the coronavirus pandemic, China is posturing itself for a quick comeback. Can we believe their numbers and agree that their virus-response methodology was effective? USA Today along with Andy Mok, a [Continued…]

A Proposal for the Coronavirus Anticipation Note (CAN)

Author: David R. Kotok & John R. Mousseau, Post Date: April 1, 2020

A Proposal for the Corona Anticipation Note (CAN) John Mousseau and I have combined our professional experience with our views of the municipal finance market. With the help of our Cumberland staff, we want to offer a format for immediate assistance designed to address urgent state and local government financing problems. This proposal is only a framework. There are many skilled professionals who [Continued…]

One Less Worry?

Author: Robert Eisenbeis, Ph.D., Post Date: March 31, 2020

Cumberland Advisors Market Commentary - One Less Worry (Eisenbeis) It is tempting to focus on the here and now, especially when we are worrying about the economic fallout from the coronavirus pandemic and its impact on the nation. We are withdrawing from social contact and are concerned about all sources of risks. We have seen reports of people sanitizing cash as one way of [Continued…]

Cumberland Advisors Guest Commentary – Maybe the World is not Ending!

Author: Michael Drury, Post Date: March 30, 2020

Michael-Drury-McVean-Trading-Header Dear Readers: Mike Drury is past chair of the Global Interdependence Center, a skilled economist and a personal friend. He is not in the “world is coming to the end” camp. He has given me permission to run his entire weekend piece. Enjoy! -David Kotok Will second quarter NOMINAL GDP be positive? (Yes, that is [Continued…]

The Ringling Bridge

Author: David R. Kotok, Post Date: March 29, 2020

Dear Readers, In Sarasota, when twilight comes to Sarasota Bay, the lighting under the Ringling Bridge is usually rotating and alternating colors. The light used to be too bright, and the glare invaded the night sky. But now, and after enough complaints from locals, the powers that decide these things adopted a less glaring and [Continued…]

Why States Are Not Going to Default from the Coronavirus Fallout

Author: Patricia Healy, CFA, Post Date: March 27, 2020

Market Commentary - Cumberland Advisors - Why States Are Not Going to Default from the Coronavirus Fallout In our opinion this is a short-term shock, although it will likely change some behaviors for the long term that will need to be monitored. The initial concern is liquidity, not just in the bond market but also at the state level, where tax payment dates have been extended and economically sensitive revenues such as [Continued…]

 

The Muni Meltdown Timeline (and the Opportunity It Presents)

Author: John R. Mousseau, CFA, Post Date: March 26, 2020 CA-Market-Commentary-The Muni Meltdown Timeline (and the Opportunity It Presents) The Municipal Bond Market has suffered one of the most dramatic back-offs it has ever seen; and it was accomplished in about nine business days. The rise in yields has been dramatic and fierce and had lots of elements to it. This is a quick synopsis of some of the muni meltdown. As of Monday [Continued…]

The CDC Foundation

Author: David R. Kotok, Post Date: March 23, 2020

CDC Foundation Dr Judy Monroe & David Kotok Dear readers. The CDC Foundation is not widely known. It’s a 501(c)3 that was created by Congress as a special charitable agency. The Foundation works right alongside the CDC and other national health agencies but is an independent charity. It has a special-purpose charter. Its purpose is to respond rapidly to threats like COVID-19 or [Continued…]

 

Cumberland Advisors Guest Commentary – Is There A COVID-19 Signal in Climate Data & Is It Potential Good News for Florida?

Author: Bob Bunting, Post Date: March 20, 2020

Is There A COVID-19 Signal in Climate Data & Is It Potential Good News for Florida - Bunting Our colleague Bob Bunting, meteorologist, professor, and former executive at both the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) and the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR), is CEO of the Climate Adaptation Center (CAC) here in Sarasota, Florida. Bob has contributed several guest commentaries to Cumberland in recent years, including “It’s Hot and Getting Hotter [Continued…]


Cumberland Advisors - Camp Kotok China Panel DiscussionNo lectern, no PowerPoint. The China Panel is public and in the public domain. The press and public are free to use the video footage and quote the speakers across social media and elsewhere.

The August 2019 China panel held at Camp Kotok packed an extraordinary amount of valuable information into a half hour and is well worth the time you’ll spend to view it: https://youtu.be/Sff0AGPrIJQ

This Camp Kotok talk session features panelists Michael Drury (Chief Economist for McVean Trading & Investments, LLC.), Jonathan D. T. Ward (Founder of Atlas Organization), & Leland Miller (CEO China Beige Book), all offering their take on U.S.-China relations. The panel and audience Q&A are guided by moderator, Lisa McIntire Shaw. <More…>


Links to other websites or electronic media controlled or offered by Third-Parties (non-affiliates of Cumberland Advisors) are provided only as a reference and courtesy to our users. Cumberland Advisors has no control over such websites, does not recommend or endorse any opinions, ideas, products, information, or content of such sites, and makes no warranties as to the accuracy, completeness, reliability or suitability of their content. Cumberland Advisors hereby disclaims liability for any information, materials, products or services posted or offered at any of the Third-Party websites. The Third-Party may have a privacy and/or security policy different from that of Cumberland Advisors. Therefore, please refer to the specific privacy and security policies of the Third-Party when accessing their websites.

Sign up for our FREE Cumberland Market Commentaries

Cumberland Advisors Market Commentaries offer insights and analysis on upcoming, important economic issues that potentially impact global financial markets. Our team shares their thinking on global economic developments, market news and other factors that often influence investment opportunities and strategies.




Cumberland Advisors Week in Review (Mar 23, 2020 – Mar 27, 2020)

The Cumberland Advisors Week in Review is a recap of news, commentary, and opinion from our team.

Week In Review

These are not revised assessments, and circumstances may have changed in the market from the time of original publication. We also include older commentaries that our editors have determined may be of interest to our audience. Your feedback is always welcome.

CUMBERLAND ADVISORS’ WEEKLY RECAP

As part of Cumberland Advisors’ continuous effort to maintain strong customer relationships, we offer this week’s short video discussing current market conditions and how we are positioning portfolios.

 

Thank you for joining Cumberland Advisors for this end-of-week update on market conditions, bonds & equities with Matt McAleer and John Mousseau.
First up: Matt McAleer, Cumberland Advisors’ Director of Equity Strategies. I’ll give you a view of what happened in the stock market this week and what I think might be on the horizon. Keep in mind, there are no fixed scripts for the market.
Next up is John Mousseau, Cumberland Advisors’ CEO & Director of Fixed Income. Quite a week in the bond market. John also wrote a commentary this week, titled, “The Muni Meltdown Timeline (and the Opportunity It Presents).” If you haven’t read it already, here’s the link: https://www.cumber.com/cumberland-advisors-market-commentary-the-muni-meltdown-timeline-and-the-opportunity-it-presents/
Please reach out to me (or John) with any questions/comments you may have about this video, I always appreciate your calls, comments, and emails.

 

Watch this week’s update in the player above or at this link: https://youtu.be/MzdtUytWcos

Thank you for joining us at Cumberland Advisors. Be safe.

-Matt McAleer

Matt enjoys your feedback. You can reach him at:
-Link to Matt’s Email: Matthew.McAleer@Cumber.com
-Link to Matt’s Twitter: https://twitter.com/MattMcAleer4
-Link to Matt’s LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/matthew-c-mcaleer/
-Call Matt: (800) 257-7013

Other questions or comments? Email us at info@cumber.com or give us a call at (800) 257-7013.

Contact Matt or any one of our advisors by following this link: https://www.cumber.com/our-people/

 



Cumberland Advisors Market Commentary

Cumberland Advisors Market Commentary offers insights and analysis on upcoming, important economic issues that potentially impact global financial markets. Our team shares their thinking on global economic developments, market news and other factors that often influence investment opportunities and strategies. Our readers appreciate its timeliness, depth of analysis, and quality of research.

To read current and past commentaries, visit www.cumber.com/category/market-commentary/


Fed Outstanding Repo Transactions March 2020

Author: Robert Eisenbeis, Ph.D., Post Date: March 27, 2020

Cumberland Advisors' Robert "Bob" Eisenbeis, Ph.D. Fed Outstanding Repo Transactions March 3 – March 27 Today, not only was the daily repo proposal very small, but also there were no proposals for the potential $500 Billion 84 day repos. (Chart Link)

Cumberland Advisors Market Commentary – The CDC Foundation

Author: David R. Kotok, Post Date: March 23, 2020

CDC Foundation Dr Judy Monroe & David Kotok Dear readers. The CDC Foundation is not widely known. It’s a 501(c)3 that was created by Congress as a special charitable agency. The Foundation works right alongside the CDC and other national health agencies but is an independent charity. It has a special-purpose charter. Its purpose is to respond rapidly to threats like COVID-19 or [Continued…]

Cumberland Advisors Market Commentary – International Stock Markets, First Quarter, 2020

Author: William Witherell, Ph.D., Post Date: March 23, 2020

Market Commentary - Cumberland Advisors - 2020 Q1 Strategy ReviewsInternational stock markets, like the US market, started the year on an optimistic note. The global slump in manufacturing appeared to be bottoming, and trade relations were easing. The first quarter is ending, however, with global equities experiencing dramatic losses and volatility surging across all market classes. As this is written (March 20), stocks in [Continued…]

Cumberland Advisors Guest Commentary – Is There A COVID-19 Signal in Climate Data & Is It Potential Good News for Florida?

Author: Bob Bunting, Post Date: March 20, 2020

Is There A COVID-19 Signal in Climate Data & Is It Potential Good News for Florida - Bunting Our colleague Bob Bunting, meteorologist, professor, and former executive at both the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) and the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR), is CEO of the Climate Adaptation Center (CAC) here in Sarasota, Florida. Bob has contributed several guest commentaries to Cumberland in recent years, including “It’s Hot and Getting Hotter [Continued…]


Cumberland Advisors - Camp Kotok China Panel DiscussionNo lectern, no PowerPoint. The China Panel is public and in the public domain. The press and public are free to use the video footage and quote the speakers across social media and elsewhere.

The August 2019 China panel held at Camp Kotok packed an extraordinary amount of valuable information into a half hour and is well worth the time you’ll spend to view it: https://youtu.be/Sff0AGPrIJQ

This Camp Kotok talk session features panelists Michael Drury (Chief Economist for McVean Trading & Investments, LLC.), Jonathan D. T. Ward (Founder of Atlas Organization), & Leland Miller (CEO China Beige Book), all offering their take on U.S.-China relations. The panel and audience Q&A are guided by moderator, Lisa McIntire Shaw. <More…>


Links to other websites or electronic media controlled or offered by Third-Parties (non-affiliates of Cumberland Advisors) are provided only as a reference and courtesy to our users. Cumberland Advisors has no control over such websites, does not recommend or endorse any opinions, ideas, products, information, or content of such sites, and makes no warranties as to the accuracy, completeness, reliability or suitability of their content. Cumberland Advisors hereby disclaims liability for any information, materials, products or services posted or offered at any of the Third-Party websites. The Third-Party may have a privacy and/or security policy different from that of Cumberland Advisors. Therefore, please refer to the specific privacy and security policies of the Third-Party when accessing their websites.

Sign up for our FREE Cumberland Market Commentaries

Cumberland Advisors Market Commentaries offer insights and analysis on upcoming, important economic issues that potentially impact global financial markets. Our team shares their thinking on global economic developments, market news and other factors that often influence investment opportunities and strategies.