Tag Archives: Robert Eisenbeis

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Cumberland Advisors Market Commentary – JOLTS and a Sobering View of Labor Market Conditions

Author: Robert Eisenbeis, Ph.D., Post Date: January 15, 2021
Robert Eisenbeis

Although the news is somewhat stale, the January 12 release of the BLS’s Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) for November provides some additional information about the underlying dynamics of the labor market as we approached the December virus surge. The picture we see reflects some calming in the labor market after a huge […]

Cumberland Advisors Market Commentary – Jobs, As the New Year Begins

Author: Robert Eisenbeis, Ph.D., Post Date: January 12, 2021
Robert Eisenbeis

The jobs numbers released this week provide a sobering view of the pace of the recovery and provide clear evidence as to what we can expect from the FOMC. The Committee’s new strategy focuses on ensuring maximum employment, with policy designed to minimize downside deviations from that what the Committee views as full employment. The […]

Cumberland Advisors Market Commentary – Breakeven Inflation

Author: Robert Eisenbeis, Ph.D., Post Date: January 6, 2021
Cumberland Advisors' Robert "Bob" Eisenbeis, Ph.D.

In a recent review of fixed-income security returns, Cumberland Chairman, David Kotok, raised a question concerning what looked to him to be an anomaly with respect to the spread between the 5-year and 10-year breakeven inflation rates on US Treasures, which had narrowed to only 5 basis points. Both market-based measures of inflation expectations, calculated […]

Cumberland Advisors Market Commentary – The December FOMC

Author: Robert Eisenbeis, Ph.D., Post Date: December 18, 2020
Federal Reserve - FOMC

Prior to the Fed’s December FOMC meeting there was a general consensus among economists (see the December NABE forecast, for example) that the Committee would not change its federal funds rate target. But the media was filled with speculation that the FOMC would possibly increase its asset purchase program or begin to purchase longer-maturity Treasuries. […]

Cumberland Advisors Market Commentary – Jobs – As Yearend Approaches

Author: Robert Eisenbeis, Ph.D., Post Date: December 7, 2020
Cumberland Advisors Market Commentary - Jobs – As Yearend Approaches (Eisenbeis)

On Friday we got the last look at how the economy is performing, jobs-wise, before the end of the year. On the positive side, the economy did create 245,000 jobs in November, and the unemployment rate edged down to 6.7 percent. We note that critics argue the estimate is too low due to problems within […]

Cumberland Advisors Market Commentary – Not As It Seems

Author: Robert Eisenbeis, Ph.D., Post Date: December 1, 2020
Cumberland Advisors Market Commentary - Not As It Seems (Eisenbeis)

On November 19, Treasury Secretary Mnuchin sent a letter to the Federal Reserve Board requesting a 90-day extension of several Fed programs to provide liquidity to financial markets, including the Commercial Paper Funding Facility, the Primary Dealer Credit Facility, the Money Market Liquidity Facility, and the Paycheck Protection Liquidity Facility. Those programs were backstopped by […]

Cumberland Advisors Market Commentary – Fed Vacancies – the Dilemma As of 11/23/2020

Author: Robert Eisenbeis, Ph.D., Post Date: November 23, 2020
Federal Reserve Building

As the Biden administration begins to float the names of potential cabinet members, an interesting scenario and potential dilemma faces the Federal Reserve Board. Normally, there are seven members of the Federal Reserve Board, but at present there are only five, with two vacant positions. One vacancy has existed since March 2014 when Sarah Bloom […]

Cumberland Advisors Market Commentary – Hope – An Update

Author: Robert Eisenbeis, Ph.D., Post Date: October 2, 2020
Cumberland Advisors Market Commentary - Hope – An Update - Robert-Eisenbeis, Ph.D.

Our commentary “FOMC: Hope Now Seems to Be a Strategy” (https://www.cumber.com/cumberland-advisors-market-commentary-fomc-hope-now-seems-to-be-a-strategy/) focused on the FOMC’s latest decision to keep its target for the federal funds rate between 0–.25%, to change its strategy for policy going forward to focus on shortfalls in labor markets from what the Committee perceives to be full employment, and to shift […]

Cumberland Advisors Market Commentary – FOMC: Hope Now Seems to Be a Strategy

Author: Robert Eisenbeis, Ph.D., Post Date: September 18, 2020
Cumberland Advisors Market Commentary - FOMC Hope Now Seems to Be a Strategy (Eisenbeis)

The FOMC finished its September deliberations and published its first statement and Summary of Economic Projections (SEPs) since the revision of its policy strategy was announced on the eve of the Kansas City Fed’s annual August Jackson Hole Symposium. The statement began by reiterating that the FOMC stands ready to employ its full range of […]

Cumberland Advisors Market Commentary – JOLTS – July

Author: Robert Eisenbeis, Ph.D., Post Date: September 16, 2020
Cumberland Advisors' Robert "Bob" Eisenbeis, Ph.D.

The BLS Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) data come out with a lag, so we are now just getting a look at the July numbers. They do, however, help fill in some of the labor dynamics that are occurring within the economy as we adjust to the COVID-19 pandemic shock. We know that […]