Tag Archives: Robert Eisenbeis

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Cumberland Advisors Market Commentary – Jobs and Other Thoughts

Author: Robert Eisenbeis, Ph.D., Post Date: July 9, 2019
Market Commentary - Cumberland Advisors - Employment Report

Earlier in the week, before July 4th, ADP released its jobs report for June and predicted that the economy had only created a modest increase of 102K jobs on the heels of May’s 75K. The press picked up that number with headlines like “Job Creation Has Another Rough Month in June as Private Payrolls Rise […]

The June FOMC

Author: Robert Eisenbeis, Ph.D., Post Date: June 24, 2019
Federal Reserve - FOMC

In the commentary leading up to the June meeting, I argued that some relaxation of the tariff issues with Mexico, combined with relatively good data for the US economy, would make the FOMC’s decision to hold pat on rates relatively easier. While the FOMC did decide at its June meeting to hold rates constant for […]

Trump revs up his Wayback Machine

Author: , Post Date: June 20, 2019
Cumberland Advisors Robert "Bob" Eisenbeis Ph.D. In The NewsCumberland-Advisors-Robert "Bob" Eisenbeis Ph.D. In-The-News

Excerpt from… Trump revs up his Wayback Machine In a single week, the president leaned heavily into economic theories from as far back as the 18th century. By BEN WHITE (bwhite@politico.com; @morningmoneyben) 06/20/2019 05:15 AM EDT Stanley Fischer, the former Fed vice chair, said at a forum Tuesday that slashing rates right now following pressure […]

More on Tariffs

Author: Robert Eisenbeis, Ph.D., Post Date: June 6, 2019
Cumberland Advisors Market Commentary

Assessing the impact of the series of US tariff changes in 2018 and 2019 is difficult. The tariffs have been revised and updated over time. Indeed, MarketsInsider lists about 27 tariff-related events and announcements between March 2018, when President Trump announced tariffs on steel and aluminum imports from all countries, and May 23, 2019.[1] They […]

May FOMC Minutes: Patience

Author: Robert Eisenbeis, Ph.D., Post Date: May 28, 2019
Federal Reserve - FOMC

In advance of the release of the FOMC’s May minutes, speculation in the press and by financial market participants was that the Committee might cut the federal funds target rate. The main line of conjecture centered on how long the FOMC could continue to miss its inflation target on the downside before a rate cut […]

Cumberland Advisors Market Commentary – Tariffs – Macroeconomic Versus Microeconomic Effects: In the Long Run We Are All Dead

Author: Robert Eisenbeis, Ph.D., Post Date: May 17, 2019
Market Commentary - Cumberland Advisors - Impact of Tariffs

Robert Brusca of FAO-Economics details some interesting information on US trade and the likely impacts that the current US-China trade war could have on prices.[1] He has provided us with a deep dive into the mechanics and macro costs of the current tariff “war.” Here are data suggesting that markets may have overreacted to this […]

Cumberland Advisors Market Commentary – Hope Is Not a Strategy

Author: Robert Eisenbeis, Ph.D., Post Date: May 7, 2019
Federal Reserve - FOMC

On Wednesday, the FOMC left its policy stance unchanged. This decision was consistent with the message sent after the previous meeting and was not contradicted by speeches given by FOMC participants in the intermeeting period. This action was also consistent with the consensus view of economists who follow the Fed. Indeed, of the 39 economists […]

The FOMC, March 2019

Author: Robert Eisenbeis, Ph.D., Post Date: March 27, 2019
Federal Reserve - FOMC

To no one’s surprise, the FOMC left its policy rate unchanged. This decision was widely telegraphed in advance. What was a surprise to many – but should not have been – was the mark-down in prospective rate changes to zero in 2019 and only one in 2020. Pundits puzzled over what had changed since the […]

The January 2019 Fed Minutes

Author: Robert Eisenbeis, Ph.D., Post Date: February 22, 2019
Federal Reserve - FOMC

Attention has turned to what extra gems of information might be contained in the release of the FOMC’s January 2019 minutes about the future path of policy. Comments have focused on the Fed’s balance sheet, the consequences of its runoff for financial markets, and what the Fed’s policies might be going forward in terms of […]