Tag Archives: Thucydides Trap


Doc Holliday, Jay Powell, Donald Trump & The Piano

Author: David R. Kotok, Post Date: October 12, 2018
Cumberland Advisors Market Commentary by David Kotok

“Ready, Fire, Aim”? In Understanding and Managing Public Organizations, Hal Rainey makes the point that “the intangible issues of culture, values, human relations – matters that many managers regard as fuzzy and unmanageable – can and must be skillfully managed.” The contrary approach, which is favored by many companies and government agencies, can be summarized […]

Thucydides–Part 4

Author: David R. Kotok, Post Date: June 13, 2018

In the modern geopolitical world, money and payments are integrated in war (and trade wars) and politics. We see that intrigue in the daily news flow. Some 2400 years after the Peloponnesian War, we can still glean from antiquity lessons to guide us. The Thucydides Trap includes money as a tool of war or as […]

Thucydides–Part 3

Author: David R. Kotok, Post Date: May 15, 2018

In book five of The History of the Peloponnesian War, Thucydides describes how the Athenians sustained surprisingly large losses in battle and how the Spartans prevailed. He also describes what each side didn’t know about the condition of the other side. Problems arise when decisions are based on incomplete information. Athens didn’t know of the […]

Thucydides–Part 2

Author: David R. Kotok, Post Date: May 2, 2018

Many thanks to readers for comments about our “Thucydides – Part 1.” For those who missed it the link is https://www.cumber.com/thucydides-part-1/. In this part 2 we must first offer an apology to Professor Graham Allison. An astute reader caught a typo on a third occurrence of his first name, deep in the text of part […]

Thucydides–Part 1

Author: David R. Kotok, Post Date: April 28, 2018
Market Commentary - Cumberland Advisors - Thucydides Trap

“Let China sleep; when she wakes, she will shake the world.” – Napoleon, 1817 (citation source: Graham Allison) “We really don’t think it was tariffs – those have been in the public domain for days. Rather, we believe the market has a very unhealthy dynamic at the moment. Washington policy is critical to the market […]