Wave Of COVID-19 Bankruptcies Poses Next Threat To US Economy Excerpt from Barron’s (AFP News) – May 13, 2020 By John Biers Larger companies have generally survived the initial blow from the coronavirus crisis, but still face existential challenges to get through what will probably be a long and grinding recovery. Since COVID-19 shuttered much […]
Senate Majority Leader McConnell yesterday was reported by Bloomberg News as saying that he “would certainly be in favor of allowing states to use the bankruptcy route” rather than giving them a Federal bailout. This reminded us of 2010 when Meredith Whitney, a noted bank analyst, predicted that there would be hundreds of billions of […]
Worried About a Bear Market? Bonds Pose More Danger Than Stocks. Excerpt from Barron’s – Nov. 22, 2019 By Randall W. Forsyth Andrew Bary contended that Treasury bonds are now riskier than stocks in this space a few months ago. Moreover, given their low yields, which don’t have much room to fall further, bonds are […]
Muni yields rose in the first six weeks of this quarter – mostly in sympathy with US Treasuries (UST). We saw the 10-year and 30-year Treasury bonds rise 20 and 25 basis points respectively. Since early November, AAA muni yields (AAA) have dropped across the board, and the 10-year Treasury yield has fallen a whopping […]
The story is that the Fed’s quantitative easing program injected large amounts of liquidity into financial markets, causing bond rates to fall and stock prices to accelerate. Consequently, the argument goes that, the shrinking of the Fed’s balance sheet through maturity runoff will cause bond rates to increase and, presumably, stock prices to retreat. But […]
We start September with a cash reserve in our US equity ETF portfolios. Some details of our thinking follow. We wish our readers a Happy Post-Labor Day return to confront the 9-week run-up to the midterms. Other risk items include a possible government shutdown (not likely, in our view) and the effects of the continuing […]
…[R]isk is that China or another country weans itself off US debt by slowing its purchases and waiting for existing Treasuries to mature.
“Gradualism could have a long-term impact on the United States. But that would be a patient policy that would not reveal itself easily,” said David Kotok, chairman of Cumberland Advisors