On Friday, the Dow bounced over 750 points, reacting to the May employment report. In truth, it seems that participants never read beyond the first sentence, which stated: “Total nonfarm payroll employment rose by 2.5 million in May (private sector employment increased 3.1 million while government employment declined by 585 thousand) and the unemployment rate […]
Dear readers, Here’s a meaty analysis of the Friday employment report. Please note the link will take you to a $27 a month trial. After you read this report, you may find it worthwhile. Please note: I’m a paying subscriber. Enjoy. -David COMMENTS ON APRIL JOB LOSSES TLR Analytics An appalling employment report, reflecting massive […]
UBS Sees No Fed Rate Cut Until at Least 2021 June 18, 2019 David Kotok, Cumberland Advisors Chairman and CIO, and Laura Kane, UBS head of Americas investing themes, discuss their outlook for the Fed. They appear on “Bloomberg Daybreak: Americas.” Watch at Bloomberg TV or in the embedded player below.
The last few days, President Trump has made inflammatory and in some instances misguided remarks as to the nature of current Fed policy, its impact on the stock market and potentially on the economy. Examples follow: “It is a correction (the decline in the stock market) that I feel is caused by the Federal Reserve.” […]
We thank readers for comments on our Sunday morning piece about the Fed and the risk of policy mistakes. For those who missed it, the link is here: https://www.cumber.com/fed-employment-mistake-or-correct-munis/. For those who missed my colleague Bob Eisenbeis’s piece on Fed policy, here’s the link: https://www.cumber.com/may-fomc-decision/. Bob raised a technical question internally, which we will share […]
Albert Einstein was, it turns out, apparently not the person who defined insanity as “doing the same thing over and over again and expecting a different result” (see https://quoteinvestigator.com/2017/03/23/same/); but it’s a good definition just the same. The definition certainly applies in economics and financial markets when we apply regression analysis to data on the assumption […]